京杭运河长沟船闸工程地质灾害危险性评估

长沟船闸工程是“南水北调”东线工程京杭运河山东济宁-东平湖段复航工程的配套工程,标准二级船闸,设计年单向通过能力为2120～ 2440万t.项目征地范围平面图形为不规则长条型,面积559700m2,地质灾害危险性评估范围为征地范围向东、南、西、北四方向外扩200m,评估区面积为2774097m2.项目地质环境条件复杂程...     

Advances and Practices on the Research,Prevention and Control of Land Subsidence in Coastal Cities

Land subsidence severely threatens most of the coastal plains around the world where high productive industrial and agricultural activities and urban centers are concentrated. Coastal subsidence damages infrastructures and exacerbates the effect of the sea-level rise at regional scale. Although it is a well-known process, there is still much more to be improved on the monitoring, mapping and modeling of ground movements, as well as the understanding of controlling mechanisms. The International Geoscience Programme recently approved an international project (IGCP 663) aiming to bring together worldwide researchers to share expertise on subsidence processes typically occurring in coastal areas and cities, including basic research, monitoring and observation, modelling and management. In this paper, we provide the research communities and potential stakeholders with the basic information to join the participating teams in developing this project. Specifically, major advances on coastal subsidence studies and information on well-known and new case studies of land subsidence in China, Italy, The Netherlands, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand are highlighted and summarized. Meanwhile, the networking, dissemination, annual meeting and field trip are briefly introduced.     

考虑粘性土体低速非Darcy渗流地面沉降模拟的探讨

过度抽汲地下水引发的地面沉降是全球广泛关注的地质环境问题。对其进行数值模拟是实现地面沉降灾害科学管理的最有效手段。水流模型是地面沉降模型的必要组成部分,对其刻画得准确与否将影响沉降模拟的准确度。本文首先综述了低渗透性粘性土体中的低速非线性Darcy渗流规律,而后从地面沉降发生的地质背景分析出发,论证了低速非线性Darcy渗流对地面沉降模拟的作用,并讨论了当前地面沉降模拟中水流模型刻画的不足之处。最后提出了如何在地面沉降模拟中考虑低速非Darcy渗流的4个关键性科学问题,对该问题的探讨有助于提高地面沉降模拟的准确性。     

三峡工程库区移民迁建区地质灾害与防治

三峡工程移民总人口达120万人,移民迁建区地质条件复杂,地质环境容量极为有限,人地关系紧张,移民安置难度大。本文将三峡工程移民迁建区地质工作归结为地质条件的复杂性、地质工作的阶段性、地质认识的局限性、地质问题的长期性4个方面,并对三峡库区地质灾害临测预警工程的建设内容和运行方式进行了初步探讨。三峡库区地质灾害预警工程将按照“中央领导,分省负责,县为基础”的方针,在群测群防体系和专业技术体系相结合的基础上,以国家、省市和县区3级地质环境监测站为依托,采用现代化的计算机网络技术和群测群防手段,对库区以滑坡为主的地质灾害进行分批分级监测,三峡库区地质灾害预警工程将分4个阶段实施。最后,就三峡工程移民迁建区地质灾害防治工作提出了建议。     

四川雅安地质灾害预警预报及分析

本文介绍了雅安市地质灾害预警预报系统的建设基础、工作流程和2013年汛期运行情况。本系统在地质灾害调查获取的易发性分区图及预警判据体系的基础上,利用WEBGIS平台构建;运行时需要输入区域降雨量监测值和降雨预测值,得出相应的危险性分布情况。本系统2013年汛期运行,对地方地质灾害防灾减灾提供了技术支持。本文结合一次典型的预警实例（2013年7月7日）,对预警的效果进行了评价,并指出了系统存在的问题和下一步的工作方向。     

Earth fissures in Jiangsu Province,China and geological investigation of Hetang earth fissure

Earth fissures are a geohazard in Jiangsu Province, China. They can be caused by earthquakes and active faults, underground mining, groundwater extraction and landslides. In order to establish a provincial rehabilitation plan in Jiangsu, a range of monitoring programs, surveys, geological investigations and modeling have been implemented or planned. One of the focuses of the project is the land subsidence and earth fissures caused by excessive groundwater withdrawal in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou (Su-Xi-Chang) area, southern Jiangsu Province. Hetang earth fissure within the Su-Xi-Chang area was first reported in 1995 and a series of investigation has been conducted since then. The site investigations and geophysical survey in 1997 have recognized the causative factor as the excessive groundwater drawdown coupled by the underlying bedrock ridge. An open trench excavation in 2007 and a plane strain analysis suggest that Hetang earth fissures may have cracked from the bedrock ridge to ground surface. Geological drilling in 2007 has further confirmed the existence and configuration of the ridge and extracted soil samples for laboratory tests to obtain soil parameters for numerical analyses and modeling of land subsidence and earth fissures in the Su-Xi-Chang area, Jiangsu, China. The laboratory tests are currently in progress and the result of numerical analyses and modeling is expected to be presented in the near future.     

城市地面沉降研究进展及其发展趋势

地面沉降是城市主要地质灾害之一。随着中国城市化进程的加快，地面沉降规模扩大，危害加剧，本文简述了国内外地面沉降概况，对地面沉降的成因、危害、机制、数学模拟、监测、防治等方面的研究进展进行了综合论述，并指出，建设工程性地面沉降，孔隙水运移机制、地下水和地面沉降模型耦合、地面沉降生态-经济-社会影响评估、地下水采灌优化设计、地面沉降系统防治、地面变形高精度监测、城市化建设与地面沉降的相互关系等，是今后城市地面沉降研究的主要方向。     

城市地面沉降设防问题

我国地面沉降地质灾害存在长期蔓延之势,主观原因在于对上海地面沉降的治疗认识不足。通过对地面沉降发生的必要条件的探究,对有关城市地面沉降设防的若干问题,作一初步探讨。     

北京东部地区地面沉降发育特征分析

结合区域地质背景条件,利用水准测量、分层标地层变形、地下水位动态等监测数据,对北京东部地区地面沉降的发育特征与发展变化规律进行了分析研究。该区域的地面沉降与地下水开采具有显著相关性,深部地层仍是沉降的主要贡献层位;沉降中心地下水具有明显的分层变化规律,深层承压水明显的水位降落漏斗,直接导致深部地层沉降压缩最为显著;地面沉降的区域分布、沉降速率变化与地下水降落漏斗具有一定的时空相关性;南水北调的稳定供水,有效缓解了北京地面沉降快速发展的趋势。     

Assessment of ground subsidence hazard near an abandoned underground coal mine using GIS

This study constructs a hazard map for ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) at Samcheok City in Korea using a probability (frequency ratio) model, a statistical (logistic regression) model, and a Geographic Information System (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, an image database was constructed from a topographical map, geological map, mining tunnel map, Global Positioning System (GPS) data, land use map, lineaments, digital elevation model (DEM) data, and borehole data. An attribute database was also constructed from field investigations and reports on the existing ground subsidence areas at the study site. Nine major factors causing ground subsidence were extracted from the probability analysis of the existing ground subsidence area: (1) depth of drift; (2) DEM and slope gradient; (3) groundwater level, permeability, and rock mass rating (RMR); (4) lineaments and geology; and (5) land use. The frequency ratio and logistic regression models were applied to determine each factor’s rating, and the ratings were overlain for ground subsidence hazard mapping. The ground subsidence hazard map was then verified and compared with existing subsidence areas. The verification results showed that the logistic regression model (accuracy of 95.01%) is better in prediction than the frequency ratio model (accuracy of 93.29%). The verification results showed sufficient agreement between the hazard map and the existing data on ground subsidence area. Analysis of ground subsidence with the frequency ratio and logistic regression models suggests that quantitative analysis of ground subsidence near AUCMs is possible.     

Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.     

河北省沧州市地质灾害与地下水关系研究

文章主要对沧州市的地面沉降、地裂缝等地质灾害的发育特征进行了分析研究，论述了其与地下水的关系。得出深昙地下水水位降深70m可作专控制地面沉降发展的警戒水位降深，浅层地下水水位埋深7m可作为地裂缝多发的警戒水位埋深的结论。这专地质灾害监测工作相对滞后，而地下水水位监测系统相对完善的平原地区，如何控制地质灾害的发生、发展提供了一个可资借鉴的思路。     

基于ANP的模糊贝叶斯网络模型及其在海岸带地质灾害风险评价中的应用

海岸带位于海陆交互地带,其独特的地理、地质和环境条件导致其灾害地质现象发育,地质灾害易发性和危险性高。考虑到海岸带的重要经济和社会属性,开展海岸带的地质灾害风险评价显得极为重要。本文首先建立了基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地质灾害风险评价模型,结合网络层次分析法(ANP)确定模糊贝叶斯网络的条件概率,并简化了贝叶斯网络的结构图谱。在此基础上,以辽东半岛东部海岸带作为研究区,以崩塌、滑坡、地面塌陷、海岸侵蚀和海水入侵等5个主要地质灾害类型作为评价对象,开展了基于ANP-模糊贝叶斯网络模型的地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险性评价,并编制了综合地质灾害风险分布图;结果显示,区内高、较高风险区主要分布于研究区的西南部海岸带,面积为249km2,约占全区面积的9.1%。研究成果可为海岸带国土资源开发、经济建设规划、防灾减灾救灾等提供重要参考,对同类地区的海岸带地质灾害风险评价具有一定借鉴意义。     

Analysis and suggestions on land subsidence control in Dezhou of Shandong Province

The land subsidence in Dezhou of Shandong Province has a long history with the characteristics of large amount, wide distribution and ongoing development. The prevention and control situation of land subsidence is becoming urgent. In order to analyze the possibility of realizing the goal in Subsidence Control Program in Dezhou, Shandong Province (from 2018 to 2025) on schedule, based on the current situation of land subsidence in Dezhou and the existing prevention and control means, the authors analyzed the subsidence control target feasibility through the quantitative calculation of regional subsidence rate formulas and the prediction of central subsidence rate. The analysis results show that under the strictest water resource management system, the subsidence control goal could be realized. At present, there are some problems in the prevention and control of land subsidence, for example, the monitoring means and frequency of land subsidence need to be improved, the prevention and control funds is lack of guarantee, and the subsidence mechanism research and govemance is still not enough. Then from the aspects of governance and technology, the authors put forward some suggestions, including improving the monitoring network, controlling the exploitation of groundwater, and expanding the propaganda of land subsidence knowledge. The study can provide some reference for the effective prevention and control of land subsidence in Dezhou.     

辽宁省抚顺市区地质灾害监测系统设计方案

抚顺市地质灾害监测系统，由5方面工作内容组成：(1)建立统一可靠的城市高程起算基准；(2)扩展现有的沉降监测网，使分散的监测点联合形成全面、统一的监测网；(3)对浑河断裂带主断层实施监测；(4)对西露天采坑北坡滑坡重点区和采煤沉陷重点区实施水平位移监测；(5)利用计算机技术和地理信息系统(GIS)技术，建立抚顺市地质灾害信患系统。该系统是城市地质灾害防治的基础工程。系统应用了先进的监测手段及数据处理技术。文章介绍了系统的设计方案。     

绵阳市震后恢复重建中地质灾害的防治工作

面对震后极差的地质环境,成倍增加的地质灾害隐患,绵阳市积极开展各项防治工作,通过及时编制《地质灾害防治专项规划》,有序、高效开展工程治理、避让搬迁、监测预警、群测群防等防治工作,提高了防灾抗灾能力,有效保护了群众生命财产安全。     

山东省德州市地面沉降控沉分析及建议

山东省德州市地面沉降具有发展历史久、沉降量大、分布范围广、持续发展等特征,地面沉降防治工作形势紧迫。为分析《山东省德州市地面沉降防治规划(2018—2025年)》控沉目标如期实现的可能性,以德州市地面沉降现状及现有防治手段为基础,通过区域地面沉降速率公式量化计算及中心沉降速率预测进行控沉目标可行性分析。结果表明,在最严格的水资源管理制度条件下,控沉目标可以实现。针对地面沉降防治存在的问题,如地面沉降监测手段及监测频率有待提高、防治经费缺乏保障、地面沉降成因机理研究不深入、治理欠缺等,从管理和技术两方面出发,提出了包括健全监测网络、控采地下水、加大地面沉降知识宣传等控沉建议。该研究可为德州市切实有效进行地面沉降防治工作提供参考。     

Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis

Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area.     

南水北调工程北京段PCCP管道施工沿线的地质灾害与防治

重大城市线性工程施工可能会诱发或面临一系列的地质灾害,对其灾害特征、危害及防治方法进行研究具有重要意义.以南水北调工程北京段PCCP管道施工为例,在分析其地质环境背景、地质灾害类型、基本特征、危害性及影响范围的基础上.归纳总结了针对不同类型地质灾害所采用的施工防治措施和方法.重点对施工沿线主要地质灾害如边坡崩塌、特殊地基处理和地面沉降做了深入的探讨.研究成果对PCCP管道后续工程建设和工程运营维护具有一定的现实意义.是对线性工程地质灾害防治进行的有益的探索.