Success factors of enhanced disaster resilience in urban community

Due to its unique geographic environment, Taiwan is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons that can cause heavy casualties and huge property losses. The effects of global warming have also increased extreme climate events and the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Therefore, disaster prevention/mitigation and response is not only an important government policy issue, but also an important daily life issue. To increase the awareness of natural disasters and the importance of community safety, the Taiwan government actively promotes a community disaster prevention system. However, to avoid over-reliance on the government taskforce, the spontaneous participation and cooperation within communities can complete specific disaster preparedness and reinforce local resources for disaster prevention and response. Although the concept of disaster-resilient community (DRC) has been shaped for a long period of time, community residents cannot keep pace with the government, which may decrease the effectiveness of DRC development. Therefore, theoretical and practical studies of urban DRC become imperative. This qualitative case study used the participant observation method to collect relevant empirical data by performing action research with self-reflection. Particularly, this article is supplemented by service work experience of the researchers in DRC promotion. A qualitative analysis of case communities during training in disaster preparedness revealed the critical success factors (CSFs) affecting the level of community-based disaster prevention and protection works. Based on the literature and empirical data, the CSFs are discussed through three spindle constructs: coping strategy, operations management, and organizational behavior. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions are given for promoting sustainable DRC.     

Pathways for adaptive and integrated disaster resilience

The GIS-multicriteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) technique is increasingly used for landslide hazard mapping and zonation. It enables the integration of different data layers with different levels of uncertainty. In this study, three different GIS-MCDA methods were applied to landslide susceptibility mapping for the Urmia lake basin in northwest Iran. Nine landslide causal factors were used, whereby parameters were extracted from an associated spatial database. These factors were evaluated, and then, the respective factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the associated factors. The landslide susceptibility maps were produced based on weighted overly techniques including analytic hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted average (OWA). An existing inventory of known landslides within the case study area was compared with the resulting susceptibility maps. Respectively, Dempster-Shafer Theory was used to carry out uncertainty analysis of GIS-MCDA results. Result of research indicated the AHP performed best in the landslide susceptibility mapping closely followed by the OWA method while the WLC method delivered significantly poorer results. The resulting figures are generally very high for this area, but it could be proved that the choice of method significantly influences the results.     

Disaster prevention,disaster preparedness and local community resilience within the context of disaster risk management in Cameroon

This paper presents a simulation of three components of near-field ground shaking recorded during the main shock at three stations of the September 16, 1978, Tabas (M _w = 7.4), Iran, earthquake, close to the causative fault. A hybrid method composed of a discrete wavenumber method developed by Bouchon (Bouchon in Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:959–971, 1981; Cotton and Coutant in Geophys J Int 128:676–688, 1997) and a stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency proposed by Motazedian and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005), modified by Assatourians and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:935–1949, 2007), is used for generating the seismograms at low (0.1–1.0 Hz) and high frequencies (1.0–20.0 Hz), respectively. The results are validated by comparing the simulated peak acceleration, peak velocity, peak displacement, Arias intensity, the integral of velocity squared, Fourier spectrum and acceleration response spectrum on a frequency-by-frequency basis, the shape of the normalized integrals of acceleration and velocity squared, and the cross-correlation with the observed time-series data. Each characteristic is compared on a scale from 0 to 10, with 10 being perfect agreement. Also, the results are validated by comparing the simulated ground motions with the modified Mercalli intensity observations reported by reconnaissance teams and showed reasonable agreement. The results of the present study imply that the damage distribution pattern of the 1978 Tabas earthquake can be explained by the source directivity effect.     

Watershed landscape indicators of estuarine benthic condition

Do land use and cover characteristics of watersheds associated with small estuaries exhibit a strong enough signal to make landscape metrics useful for identifying degraded bottom communities? We tested this idea with 58 pairs of small estuaries (<260 km²) and watersheds in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastal plain (Delaware Bay to Chesapeake Bay). We considered 34 landscape metrics as potential explanatory variables and seven estuarine parameters as response variables. We developed three logistic regression models: one to calculate the probability of degraded benthic environmental quality (BEQ), as defined by chemical parameters, and two for the probability of degraded estuarine bottom communities, one using a benthic index (BI) and a second using the total number of bottom-dwelling species (TNBS, consisting of benthic macroinvertebrates and fishes). We evaluated the discriminatory power of the models with ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves of sensitivity and specificity. All three models showed excellent discrimination of high and low values. A model using the sum of all human land uses and percent wetlands correctly classified BEQ in 86% of the cases; low benthic index and low total number of bottom species were each associated with degraded BEQ (p<0.01). The BI model used percent riparian urban, riparian wetlands, and agriculture on steep slopes (76% correct classification) and correctly predicted high-low benthic index of an independent data set 79% of the time (p<0.05). The TNBS model used percent wetlands, riparian wetlands, and riparian agriculture (74% correct classification). Watersheds with higher percentages of urban and agricultural land uses were associated with lower benthic environmental quality, benthic index, and biodiversity, whereas those with higher percentages of wetlands were associated with higher numbers. As human development of watersheds increases, statistical prediction rules developed from landscape metrics could be a cost-effective method to identify potentially threatened estuaries.     

Climate disaster resilience of the education sector in Thua Thien Hue Province, Central Vietnam

Recognizing the importance of building disaster resilience for education sector, this study aims to develop a methodology to measure the level of educational resilience to cope with natural disasters and is then applied in Central Vietnam. The assessment tool in this paper is developed through a combination of climate disaster resilience indexes and the 16 tasks of Hyogo framework for action designed for education sector. It looks at five dimensions namely physical conditions, human resources, institutional issues, external relationships, and natural conditions, with each dimension characterized by three parameters and five variables. Findings from this study provide important insights into enhancing resilience of the education system in Thua Thien Hue at the provincial, local, and school levels. By giving the overall resilience situation, it can help policy-makers and practitioners in developing an effective plan to increase the level of educational resilience. In addition, it provides the School Management Board with a means to assess the school??s resilience level and set out priorities that need to be focused on with regard to the improvement of school safety and disaster risk reduction education.     

Learning from the history of disaster vulnerability and resilience research and practice for climate change

This paper calculated the embodied carbon in China export and its distribution in each industrial sector. The calculation results showed the total carbon emission of export experienced an increase before 2007 and then a decrease till 2010. The ratio of export embodied carbon accounting for the total carbon emission in China also increased from 31 % in 2002 to 52 % in 2007 and then declined to 40 % in 2010. As for distribution, the export embodied carbon emission of the following industries such as machinery and equipment manufacturing, metal products manufacturing industry, chemical industry, textile, clothing and leather products manufacturing industry ranked the highest. According to the calculation and analysis of the main driving factors of embodied carbon growth, we analyzed the structure effect, scale effect and technological effect’s influence on embodied carbon growth, respectively. We also calculated the trade competitiveness index of 17 export industries. Through research, we found that the products with strong international competitiveness belong to high-carbon-emission categories, which was the main reason of high carbon emission in China export. Finally, we proposed related policy suggestions to promote China’s export trade structural readjustment and optimization and China’s low carbon development in export.     

Rethinking the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation from a disaster risk perspective

Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation are three fundamentally inter-related concepts among such research communities as global environmental/climatic change, social–ecological and disaster risk science. However, their mutual relationships are still unclear so far particularly in the field of disaster risk reduction, which to some extent blocks the reasonable risk analysis and scientific decision making. This paper performed a brief overview on the basic definitions and evolution processes of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation, and tentatively categorized past diverse thoughts of their relationships into three modalities, such as, vulnerability preference, resilience preference, and overlapped relationships. From a “hit-damage-recovery-learning cycle” insight and based on an empirical case study, we put forward two conceptual frameworks to address the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation within the disaster risk domain, and we further discussed their broader implications in terms of disaster risk management and social–ecological sustainability. In an attempt to bring together the analytical frameworks of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation, this study indicates that a sustainable adaptation strategy to the unavoidable disasters or changes should not only seek to reduce the vulnerability of a social–ecological system, but also to foster its resilience and adaptive capacity to future uncertainties and potential risks.     

Effects of late Pleistocene permafrost on the landscape of Wisconsin, USA

Pleistocene permafrost had a major but generally unappreciated effect on the landscape of Wisconsin, second only to glaciation. Evidence for continuous permafrost during the last part of the Wisconsin Glaciation includes ice-wedge casts seen both in outcrop (generally in gravel pits) and as polygonal networks (on aerial photographs). Other important evidence includes fossil tundra organisms. Other features that are probably the result of permafrost in Wisconsin include talus cones, block streams, solifluction rubble at the base of most hillslopes, fluvial cobble gravel, gullies that are today inactive, lake-ice collapse trenches, and ice-walled-lake plains. Permafrost caused accelerated regional erosion of the landscape; most topographic features formed before the last permafrost melted have been highly modified or even destroyed, whereas those formed after are much better preserved. In addition, the presence of permafrost influenced many glacial processes and landforms. Permafrost was present until about 14000 yr BP in the southern part of the state to about 10000 yr BP in the northern part.     

More than a checkbox: engaging youth in disaster risk reduction and resilience in Canada

Fire has become one of the main disturbances in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. It is known that elevation influences the occurrence of fire events; however, this variable has been poorly studied, although it is of particularly relevance to the Mexican topography. The objective of this research was to analyze the altitudinal distribution of forest fires in Mexico over a period of 11 years. Elevation gradients were defined based on a Digital Elevation Model and the main ecoregions of the country: (1) shrubland and tropical forests (0–1000 masl), (2) grasslands (1001–2000 masl) and (3) temperate forests (>?2000 masl). Each ecoregion was divided into Climate Research Units and the number of fires per unit was quantified. The G Getis–Ord statistic was applied in order to define the spatial patterns presented by the fire events. A relationship between the occurrence of fires and the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon was also determined through a Pearson correlation. The results showed that the occurrence of fire events presented variability along elevation gradients, with elevation a determining factor in their occurrence. Gradient 3, with the highest elevation, had the greatest number of fires and also presented the largest area of fire event clustering. These results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of forest fires in Mexico and are of value to appropriate decision-making for effective fire management.

     

Role of women as risk communicators to enhance disaster resilience of Bandung,Indonesia

This study addresses the need for women risk communication and highlights the potential role of Women Welfare Associations (WWAs) of Bandung, Indonesia, as risk communicators. A risk communication framework is modeled for women’s risk communication process. A set of indicators in social, institutional, and economic resilience activities (SIERAs), with a scope of 45 activities covering three different disaster periods, were developed to characterize the delivery process of risk information by women in WWAs through their activities at sub-district and ward levels. The data were collected through a questionnaire survey method using the risk communication SIERA approach. Women’s leaders at wards were surveyed concerning their perceptions on these 45 scopes of SIERA, ongoing activities, and their risk information source and dissemination process. Correlation analysis was applied to determine the relationship between the variables such as periods of disaster, types of activities (social, institutional, economic), and attributing factors (location, population, and education institution) in finding variations in risk communication activity that functions for women and communities. Five risk communication processes of WWAs are identified and implemented that work for women in Bandung. When their perceptions and ongoing activities are compared, activities such as dissemination of disaster risk information, conveying early warnings to their peers, and involvement of the local government have been confirmed to match the risk communication plans and implementation of WWAs. These indicate that WWAs’ activities in Bandung implement a certain degree of risk communication that is embedded in their activities. The results confirm that women through their social networks can become active agents of change and thus act beyond their usual domestic roles and responsibilities in order to contribute to the overall enhancement of community resilience.

     

Assessment of disaster resilience capacity of hillslope communities with high risk for geological hazards

This study presents a novel preparedness assessment method for assessing hazard mitigation and environmental planning of hillslope communities. A professional questionnaire was utilized to weight each indicator. Communities in Hsinchu, Taichung and Nantou counties with debris flow hazards were taken as study samples. Debris flow risk and landslide susceptibility for each community were determined using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and logistic regression analysis. Thus, a novel risk assessment method for evaluating disaster resilience capacity of hillslope communities was established. This method was then applied to assess casualties caused by Typhoon Herb in 1996 and Typhoon Mindulle in 2004. Additionally, the analytical results generated by this assessment method were discussed with the aim of developing references for implementation of risk analysis, increasing the effectiveness of disaster mitigation, and reducing future loss of life and property.     

InSAR技术和孕灾背景指标相结合的地灾隐患识别

合成孔径雷达干涉测量(interferometric synthetic aperture radar,简称InSAR)是获取地表形变的重要手段,由于InSAR数据获取的限制和数据处理中产生的精度误差等问题,在地灾隐患识别方面的工作还需要联合地质灾害本身进行分析.为此提出了一种基于InSAR技术与研究区孕灾背景指标相结...     

Assessment of potential sediment disasters and resilience management of mountain roads using environmental indicators

In recent years, extreme rainfall events occur frequently, causing serious watershed sediment disasters, destroying mountain roads, and endangering the safety of residents' lives and property. This study aims to deal with the spatial change of potential sediment movement on the road slope pre-disaster and to screen disaster hot spots for early warning and control system. The conceptual model is used to simulate the distribution of primary and/or derived disasters on a watershed scale to assess the impact of sediment disasters caused by heavy rain event. Correlation analysis shows that the models in assessment of primary disaster and derived disaster are significantly correlated with the collapse ratio and disaster ratio, respectively. Since the primary disaster has been considered when calculating the derived disaster risk, the terrain subdivision along Provincial Highway 21 (Tai-21) is extracted to understand the derived sediment disaster on the road slope. The model can effectively evaluate the road sections prone to disasters. According to the risk level, the hot spot of road slope disasters and the management of disaster resilience are determined and can be the reference for disaster prevention and control.