Soil and gully erosion models for effective control programmes

Many parts of the world have been ravaged by soil and gully erosion, resulting in major environmental problems and causing extensive badland topography, devastated economies, untold human suffering, loss of agricultural land, ancestral homes and economic trees. The underlying causes are rarely fully-understood. Control measures based on incorrect information, incomplete data or wrong concepts have failed. Soil properties, rainfall and runoff intensity, wind action, geological, hydrogeochemical and geotechnical characteristics, and anthropogenic activities are factors generating soil and gully erosion processes. Three different soil and gully erosion models, the SEM, TOM and SOM (STS), are proposed. The Sediment Off-loading Model (SOM), and the Tectonic Origin Model (TOM) distinguish two types of gully erosion in terms of their origin, growth and methods of control. The Soil Erosion Model (SEM) distinguishes soil erosion from the gully erosion models. Improved understanding and application of these models based on their origin, characteristics and control modes may provide solutions to problems posed by widespread soil and gully erosion. A brief case study of the Agulu-Nanka gully system of Nigeria exemplifies the potential uses of the models and control programmes.     

Some considerations about the simulation of breach channel erosion on landslide dams

The analysis of the flood hazard related to the areas downstream of landslide dams is one of the most interesting aspects of studying the formation and the failure of natural dams. The BREACH code [14], simulating the collapse of earthen dams, both man-made and naturally formed by a landslide, was chosen in order to analyse the case of the Valderchia landslide (central Italy). The bed-load transport formula used in BREACH (Meyer-Peter and Muller, modified by Smart [27]) is based on flume experiments with well-sorted sediments. Such a methodology probably makes this equation not very suitable for describing the sediment transport peculiar to a landslide body presenting a very poor material sorting. The Schoklitsch [26] formula was implemented into the programme as an alternative to the Smart equation. However, because the landslide deposits may often have a strongly bimodal grain–size frequency curve, the percentile D ₅₀ (the typical granulometric parameter requested by bed-load sediment transport formulas) can sometimes correspond to one of the grain-size classes which are really present to a lesser degree. To consider this phenomenon, the BREACH programme (version 7/88-1) was implemented with a new procedure that calculates two granulometric curves, one for each mode of the original distribution, and evaluates transport of the landslide material separately. Results of the analysis show that the model is very sensitive to the bed-load equation and that the procedure implemented to consider the eventual bimodal distribution of the dam material simulates the armouring phenomenon (which can stop the erosion of the dam during the overtopping phase).     

Comparison of machine learning models for gully erosion susceptibility mapping

Gully erosion is a disruptive phenomenon which extensively affects the Iranian territory,especially in the Northern provinces.A number of studies have been recently undertaken to study this process and to predict it over space and ultimately,in a broader national effort,to limit its negative effects on local communities.We focused on the Bastam watershed where 9.3% of its surface is currently affected by gullying.Machine learning algorithms are currently under the magnifying glass across the geomorphological community for their high predictive ability.However,unlike the bivariate statistical models,their structure does not provide intuitive and quantifiable measures of environmental preconditioning factors.To cope with such weakness,we interpret preconditioning causes on the basis of a bivariate approach namely,Index of Entropy.And,we performed the susceptibility mapping procedure by testing three extensions of a decision tree model namely,Alternating Decision Tree(ADTree),Naive-Bayes tree(NBTree),and Logistic Model Tree(LMT).We dichotomized the gully information over space into gully presence/absence conditions,which we further explored in their calibration and validation stages.Being the presence/absence information and associated factors identical,the resulting differences are only due to the algorithmic structures of the three models we chose.Such differences are not significant in terms of performances;in fact,the three models produce outstanding predictive AUC measures(ADTree=0.922;NBTree=0.939;LMT=0.944).However,the associated mapping results depict very different patterns where only the LMT is associated with reasonable susceptibility patterns.This is a strong indication of what model combines best performance and mapping for any natural hazard-oriented application.     

黏性泥石流沟床冲刷深度研究

沟床冲刷深度是泥石流灾害防治工程设计最重要的参数之一,但到目前为止,关于黏性泥石流沟床冲刷的研究较少,沟床冲刷深度还没有权威可信的计算方法,是泥石流防治工程设计急需解决的技术问题。详细分析了黏性泥石流及可能冲刷沟床运动过程中受力情况,推导出黏性泥石流沟床最大冲刷深度计算公式。公式表明黏性泥石流沟床冲刷深度随泥石流泥深、泥石流重度和沟床纵比降及沟床堆积土体黏性的增大而增大,随沟床堆积土体内摩擦角的增大而减小。与现有计算方法相比,公式基于严格理论推导,计算结果更为精确,可用于计算已发生泥石流地区的不同频率的泥石流的冲刷深度,并举例说明了计算公式的实用价值,其结果为泥石流防治工程设计提供技术支撑。     

沟岸侧蚀对泥石流形成和运动过程的影响

沟岸被侧蚀掉的松散物质会通过动量交换将能量传递给龙头,从而影响泥石流的形成和运动过程。前人建立了许多模型来研究泥石流的侵蚀过程对泥石流形成和运动过程的影响,但是模型中大多以底蚀作用为前提条件。通过侧蚀模型和底蚀模型两种水槽实验的对比,针对泥石流的形成和运动过程展开研究。实验发现侧蚀作用更有利于泥石流的形成和运动,泥石流的龙头高度和速度都有波动特征,但侧蚀作用使得这种波动特征更加明显。侧蚀作用使得泥石流的龙身速度更快于龙头速度,龙身颗粒源源不断地堆积于龙头,使得龙头有较大的高度和附加坡降,因此,侧蚀条件下龙头的速度更快。     

Effects of gully erosion and gully filling on soil depth and crop production in the black soil region, northeast China

Gully erosion is a very serious problem in the black soil region of northeast China. Gully filling is often adopted for controlling gully erosion by local farmers and thus causes more serious soil erosion. In this study an ephemeral gully (EG, 74 m) and a classical gully (CG, 52 m) connected at the gully’s headcut were selected as the study site. Two comparisons were made to explore the effects of gully erosion and the subsequent gully filling on soil depth and soybean yield: (1) soil depth between 81 sample points in the study site and 11 reference points along the same slope with the gully; (2) soybean yield between 81 sample points in the study site and 30 baseline locations near the study site. The results indicated that gully erosion caused the reduction of soil depth and soybean yield. Although filling gullies with soil from adjacent areas seemed to be an expedient way to remediate the gullies, it resulted in substantial soybean yield reduction. Gully erosion reduced the soil depth and soybean yield in 74.4 and 83.9 % of the study site, respectively. The soybean yield reduction ratio was 34.5 % for the whole study site and 2.6 % for the black soil region. Soil depth was the most important soil property indicator to reduce yield. Every 1 cm decrease in soil depth in the areas adjacent to gullies due to infilling activities resulted in a 2 % decrease in yield. More significant was the deposition of sediment from gully erosion, which completely eliminated soybean yield. Currently, effective soil and water conservation measures are not known and adopted by local farmers extensively. In the future, once some measures for preventing soil erosion, in particular gully erosion, were proved effective, these technologies should be disseminated among local farmers.     

Influence of bare soil and cultivated land use types upstream of a bank gully on soil erosion rates and energy consumption for different gully erosion zones in the dry-hot valley region,Southwest China

This study assessed temporal variation in soil erosion rates in response to energy consumption of flow (ΔE). It employed an in situ bank gully field flume experiment with upstream catchment areas with bare (BLG) or cultivated land (CLG) that drained down to bare gully headcuts. Water discharge treatments ranged from 30 to 120 L Min⁻¹. Concentrated flow discharge clearly affected bank gully soil erosion rates. Excluding minimal discharge in the CLG upstream catchment area (30 L min⁻¹), a declining power function trend (p ≤ 0.1) was observed with time in soil erosion rates for both BLG and CLG upstream catchment areas and downstream gully beds. Non-steady state soil erosion rates were observed after an abrupt collapse along the headcut slope after prolonged scouring treatments. However, as the experiment progressed, ΔE and energy consumption of flow per unit soil loss (ΔEu) exhibited a logarithmic growth trend (p < 0.1) at each BLG and CLG position. Although similar temporal trends in soil erosion and infiltration rates were observed, values clearly differed between BLG and CLG upstream catchment areas. Furthermore, Darcy–Weisbach friction factor (f) values in the CLG upstream catchment area were higher than the corresponding BLG area. In contrast to the BLG upstream catchment area, lower ΔEu and higher soil erosion rates were observed in the CLG upstream catchment area as a result of soil disturbances. This indicated that intensive land use changes accelerate soil erosion rates in upstream catchment areas of bank gullies and increase soil sediment transport to downstream gullies. Accordingly, reducing tillage disturbances and increasing vegetation cover in upstream catchment areas of bank gullies are essential in the dry-hot valley region of Southwest China.

     

An integrated assessment of soil erosion dynamics with special emphasis on gully erosion in the Mazayjan basin,southwestern Iran

Soil erosion by water is a significant problem in arid and semi-arid areas of large parts of Iran. Water erosion is one of the most effective phenomena that leads to decreasing soil productivity and pollution of water resources; especially, in the Mazayjan watershed in the southwest of Fars Province gully erosion contributes to the sediment dynamics in a significant way. Consequently, the intention of this research is to identify the different types of soil erosion processes acting in the area and to assess the process dynamics in an integrative way. Therefore, we applied GIS and satellite image analysis techniques to derive input information for the numeric models. For sheet and rill erosion the Unit Stream Power-based Erosion Deposition Model (USPED) was utilized. The spatial distribution of gully erosion was assessed using a statistical approach, which used three variables (stream power index, slope, and flow accumulation) to predict the spatial distribution of gullies in the study area. The eroded gully volumes were estimated for a 7-year period by fieldwork and Google Earth high-resolution images. Finally the gully retreat rates were integrated into the USPED model. The results show that the integration of the SPI approach to quantify gully erosion with the USPED model is a suitable method to qualitatively and quantitatively assess water erosion processes. The application of GIS and stochastic model approaches to spatialize the USPED model input yields valuable results for the prediction of soil erosion in the Mazayjan catchment. The results of this research help to develop an appropriate management of soil and water resources in the southwestern parts of Iran.     

Catchment-scale soil erosion and sediment yield simulation using a spatially distributed erosion model

Increasing rainfall intensity and frequency due to extreme climate change and haphazard land development are aggravating soil erosion problems in Korea. A quantitative estimate of the amount of sediment from the catchment is essential for soil and water conservation planning and management. Essential to catchment-scale soil erosion modeling is the ability to represent the fluvial transport system associated with the processes of detachment, transport, and deposition of soil particles due to rainfall and surface flow. This study applied a spatially distributed hydrologic model of rainfall–runoff–sediment yield simulation for flood events due to typhoons and then assessed the impact of topographic and climatic factors on erosion and deposition at a catchment scale. Measured versus predicted values of runoff and sediment discharge were acceptable in terms of applied model performance measures despite underestimation of simulated sediment loads near peak concentrations. Erosion occurred widely throughout the catchment, whereas deposition appeared near the channel network grid cells with a short hillslope flow path distance and gentle slope; the critical values of both topographic factors, providing only deposition, were observed at 3.5 (km) (hillslope flow path distance) and 0.2 (m/m) (local slope), respectively. In addition, spatially heterogeneous rainfall intensity, dependent on Thiessen polygons, led to spatially distinct net-erosion patterns; erosion increased gradually as rainfall amount increased, whereas deposition responded irregularly to variations in rainfall.     

GIS-based gully erosion susceptibility mapping: a comparison among three data-driven models and AHP knowledge-based technique

Toroud Watershed in Semnan Province, Iran is a prone area to gully erosion that causes to soil loss and land degradation. To consider the gully erosion, a comprehensive map of gully erosion susceptibility is required as useful tool for decreasing losses of soil. The purpose of this research is to generate a reliable gully erosion susceptibility map (GESM) using GIS-based models including frequency ratio (FR), weights-of-evidence (WofE), index of entropy (IOE), and their comparison to an expert knowledge-based technique, namely, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). At first, 80 gully locations were identified by extensive field surveys and Google Earth images. Then, 56 (70%) gully locations were randomly selected for modeling process, and the remaining 26 (30%) gully locations were used for validation of four models. For considering geo-environmental factors, VIF and tolerance indices are used and among 18 factors, 13 factors including elevation, slope degree, slope aspect, plan curvature, distance from river, drainage density, distance from road, lithology, land use/land cover, topography wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and slope–length (LS) were selected for modeling aims. After preparing GESMs through the mentioned models, final maps divided into five classes including very low, low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the seed cell area index (SCAI) as two validation techniques applied for assessment of the built models. The results showed that the AUC (area under the curve) in training data are 0.973 (97.3%), 0.912 (91.2%), 0.939 (93.9%), and 0.926 (92.6%) for AHP, FR, IOE, and WofE models, respectively. In contrast, the prediction rates (validating data) were 0.954 (95.4%), 0.917 (91.7), 0.925 (92.5%), and 0.921 (92.1%) for above models, respectively. Results of AUC indicated that four model have excellent accuracy in prediction of prone areas to gully erosion. In addition, the SCAI values showed that the produced maps are generally reasonable, because the high and very high susceptibility classes had very low SCAI values. The results of this research can be used in soil conservation plans in the study area.     

土壤侵蚀链内细沟浅沟切沟流动力机制研究

通过模拟降雨试验的方法,系统研究了细沟流流速与流量、水深与流量、流速与水深及阻力系数与雷诺数之间的关系,雨强与坡度对细沟流水力特性的影响,不同细沟流流型、流态及水动力要素作用下的侵蚀特点,并对浅沟与切沟流的水动力特性及侵蚀规律进行了初步探讨.研究结果对于揭示土壤侵蚀链内不同侵蚀方式下的水沙流动力学机制,以及土壤侵蚀演化规律具有重要意义.     

Control of channel bank erosion using permeable groins

An experimental erosion control scheme in the Niger Delta was designed as a permeable groin using timber piles laced with strong cane nets. At the onset of the rains, when external channel water level was only 10 percent of its seasonal peak, a failure of the peripherial groin was recorded, which apparently was due to local sliding in the bank. At peak flood, a timber pile probably buried to a shallow depth failed, making the system of groins ineffective. The failure of the single timber pile resulted in extensive scouring and bed degradation, leading ultimately to the failure of the protective structure. Analyses carried out confirm that depth of embedment of the pile system is the single most important factor ensuring the stability of the groin structure.     

A GIS-based approach for gully erosion susceptibility modelling: a test in Sicily, Italy

The aim of this study is to analyze the susceptibility conditions to gully erosion phenomena in the Magazzolo River basin and to test a method that allows for driving the factors selection. The study area is one of the largest (225 km²) watershed of southern Sicily and it is mostly characterized by gentle slopes carved into clayey and evaporitic sediments, except for the northern sector where carbonatic rocks give rise to steep slopes. In order to obtain a quantitative evaluation of gully erosion susceptibility, statistical relationships between the spatial distributions of gullies affecting the area and a set of twelve environmental variables were analyzed. Stereoscopic analysis of aerial photographs dated 2000, and field surveys carried out in 2006, allowed us to map about a thousand landforms produced by linear water erosion processes, classifiable as ephemeral and permanent gullies. The linear density of the gullies, computed on each of the factors classes, was assumed as the function expressing the susceptibility level of the latter. A 40-m digital elevation model (DEM) prepared from 1:10,000-scale topographic maps was used to compute the values of nine topographic attributes (primary: slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, general curvature, tangential curvature; secondary: stream power index; topographic wetness index; LS-USLE factor); from available thematic maps and field checks three other physical attributes (lithology, soil texture, land use) were derived. For each of these variables, a 40-m grid layer was generated, reclassifying the topographic variables according to their standard deviation values. In order to evaluate the controlling role of the selected predictive variables, one-variable susceptibility models, based on the spatial relationships between each single factor and gullies, were produced and submitted to a validation procedure. The latter was carried out by evaluating the predictive performance of models trained on one half of the landform archive and tested on the other. Large differences of accuracy were verified by computing geometric indexes of the validation curves (prediction and success rate curves; ROC curves) drawn for each one-variable model; in particular, soil texture, general curvature and aspect demonstrated a weak or a null influence on the spatial distribution of gullies within the studied area, while, on the contrary, tangential curvature, stream power index and plan curvature showed high predictive skills. Hence, predictive models were produced on a multi-variable basis, by variously combining the one-variable models. The validation of the multi-variables models, which generally indicated quite satisfactory results, were used as a sensitivity analysis tool to evaluate differences in the prediction results produced by changing the set of combined physical attributes. The sensitivity analysis pointed out that by increasing the number of combined environmental variables, an improvement of the susceptibility assessment is produced; this is true with the exception of adding to the multi-variables models a variable, as slope aspect, not correlated to the target variable. The addition of this attribute produces effects on the validation curves that are not distinguishable from noise and, as a consequence, the slope aspect was excluded from the final multi-variables model used to draw the gully erosion susceptibility map of the Magazzolo River basin. In conclusion, the research showed that the validation of one-variable models can be used as a tool for selecting factors to be combined to prepare the best performing multi-variables gully erosion susceptibility model.     

A step beyond susceptibility: an adaptation of risk framework for monetary risk estimation of gully erosion

Natural Hazards - In an effort to improve the previous gully susceptibility assessments in Iran, we attempted to conglomerate the notions of susceptibility, vulnerability, and exposure associated...     

Using topographical attributes to evaluate gully erosion proneness (susceptibility) in two mediterranean basins: advantages and limitations

Empirical multivariate predictive models represent an important tool to estimate gully erosion susceptibility. Topography, lithology, climate, land use and vegetation cover are commonly used as input for these approaches. In this paper, two multivariate predictive models were generated for two gully erosion processes in San Giorgio basin (Italy) and Mula River basin (Spain) using only topographical attributes as independent variables. Initially, nine models (five for San Giorgio and four for Mula) with pixel sizes ranging from 2 to 50 m were generated, and validation statistics were calculated to estimate the optimal pixel size. The best models were selected based on model performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve and the generalized cross-validation. The best pixel size was 4 m in the San Giorgio basin and 20 m in the Mula basin. The finest resolution was not necessarily the best; rather, the relationship between digital elevation model resolution and size of the landform was important. The two selected models showed an excellent performance with AUC values of 0.859 and 0.826 for San Giorgio and Mula, respectively. The Topographic Wetness Index and the general curvature were identified as key topographical attributes in San Giorgio and Mula basins, respectively. Both attributes were related to the processes observed in the field and described in the literature. Finally, maps of gully erosion susceptibility were produced for each basin. These maps showed that 22 and 20 % of San Giorgio and Mula basins, respectively, present favourable conditions for the development of gullies.     

隧道渗流侵蚀的颗粒流模拟

建造在砂土环境中的盾构隧道渗漏水会将砂土颗粒带入隧道内部,导致隧道周围砂土流失,引起隧道的不均匀变形与沉降。建立了隧道–土体离散元计算模型,模拟隧道不同部位发生局部渗流侵蚀时隧道中心位移、隧道表面土压力分布及地表沉降的变化。结果表明,隧道中心位移、地表沉降量均与颗粒流失比例呈线性增加关系;受颗粒流失及流失缝周围形成的颗粒力拱影响,隧道表面土压力重分布,会使流失缝宽度进一步扩大而加剧渗流侵蚀进程,且渗流侵蚀发生于隧道底部产生的影响大于渗流侵蚀发生于隧道腰部与顶部。     

Geomorphology and GIS analysis for mapping gully erosion susceptibility in the Turbolo stream catchment (Northern Calabria, Italy)

This work summarizes the results of a geomorphological and bivariate statistical approach to gully erosion susceptibility mapping in the Turbolo stream catchment (northern Calabria, Italy). An inventory map of gully erosion landforms of the area has been obtained by detailed field survey and air photograph interpretation. Lithology, land use, slope, aspect, plan curvature, stream power index, topographical wetness index and length-slope factor were assumed as gully erosion predisposing factors. In order to estimate and validate gully erosion susceptibility, the mapped gully areas were divided in two groups using a random partitions strategy. One group (training set) was used to prepare the susceptibility map, using a bivariate statistical analysis (Information Value method) in GIS environment, while the second group (validation set) to validate the susceptibility map, using the success and prediction rate curves. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on gully areas locations; therefore, over 88% of the gullies of the validation set are correctly classified falling in high and very high susceptibility areas. The susceptibility map, produced using a methodology that is easy to apply and to update, represents a useful tool for sustainable planning, conservation and protection of land from gully processes. Therefore, this methodology can be used to assess gully erosion susceptibility in other areas of Calabria, as well as in other regions, especially in the Mediterranean area, that have similar morphoclimatic features and sensitivity to concentrated erosion.     

A GIS-based approach for gully erosion susceptibility modelling using bivariate statistics methods in the Ourika watershed,Morocco

Gully erosion is an important environmental issue with severe impacts. This study aimed to characterize gully erosion susceptibility and assess the capability of information value (InfVal) and frequency ratio (FR) models for its spatial prediction in Ourika watershed of the High Atlas region of Morocco. These two bivariate statistical methods have been used for gully erosion susceptibility mapping by comparing each data layer of causative factor to the existing gully distribution. Weights to the gully causative factors are assigned based on gully density. Gullies have been mapped through field surveys and Google earth high-resolution images. Lithofacies, land use, slope gradient, length-slope, aspect, stream power index, topographical wetness index and plan curvature were considered predisposing factors to gullying. The digitized gullies were randomly split into two parts. Sixty-five percent (65%) of the mapped gullies were randomly selected as training set to build gully susceptibility models, while the remaining 35% cases were used as validation set for the models’ validation. The results showed that barren and sparse vegetation lands and slope gradient above 50% were very susceptible to gully erosion. The ROC curve was used for testing the accuracy of the mentioned models. The analysis confirms that the FR model (AUC 80.61%) shows a better accuracy than InfVal model (AUC 52.07%). The performance of the gully erosion susceptibility map constructed by FR model is greater than that of the map produced by InfVal model. The findings proved that GIS-based bivariate statistical methods such as frequency ratio model could be successfully applied in gully susceptibility mapping in Morocco mountainous regions and in other similar environments. The produced susceptibility map represents a useful tool for sustainable planning, conservation and protection of land from gully processes.     

祁连山东段基岩河道宽度对差异性构造抬升的响应

河道宽度调整是基岩河流系统响应构造、气候、岩性等外部扰动的重要方式之一.对祁连山东段山区基岩河流进行的水力几何学研究发现,河道宽度调整是祁连山地区基岩河流响应构造驱动的重要方式之一.位于低山带的冰沟河河道宽度向下游增加的速率明显高于位于高山带的宁缠河,河道宽度-面积回归拟合结果显示,冰沟河河道宽度-面积指数(b')值为0.55,而宁缠河为0.46.对冰沟河和宁缠河河床基岩露头硬度进行的测量和计算显示,两条河流平均硬度值(R)分别为 58.8±8.8和 66.0±7.2.对比河道宽度向下游的调整变化与河床基岩露头的硬度变化,发现二者无明显相关关系,说明基岩抗蚀性不是控制河道宽度变化的主要因素.对比河道宽度的系统变化与区域差异性构造抬升速率的分布模式,发现宁缠河位于高抬升速率(高山带)地区的河段河道宽度较窄(b'≈0.44),而冰沟河位于低抬升速率(低山带)地区的河段河道宽度较宽(b'≈0.55).因此,可以推断高山带和低山带河流河道宽度向下游增加速率的系统差异,应该是河道响应不同地貌带间差异性构造抬升的结果.此外,利用经验模型和Finnegan等的模型对冰沟河和宁缠河河道宽度进行了预测,结果显示经验模型较好地预测了河道宽度的系统变化趋势,而Finnegan等的模型则更好地体现了河道内部特征的变化和各种影响因素间的相互作用.     

雅鲁藏布江色东普沟冰崩—堵江—溃决灾害数值模拟

为了揭示雅鲁藏布江色东普沟2018年10月17日冰崩—堵江—溃决灾害链的动力演化过程,基于Massflow数值模拟仿真平台,使用Fortran编程语言,根据研究区域地质条件特征对程序进行二次开发以优化Voellmy模型,模拟冰崩—泥石流动力过程;将模拟泥石流得到的堰塞坝体嵌入地形中,运用ArcGIS计算堰塞湖范围及体积,通过Manning模型模拟堰塞湖溃决洪水动力过程。采用分段模拟法再现冰崩—泥石流—堵江—堰塞湖—溃坝的完整动力过程,对泥石流运动过程中的流速、流深,坝体高度,溃决洪水的流深、流速等参数进行定量化研究,为色东普流域的防灾减灾工作提供有效支撑。为了揭示雅鲁藏布江色东普沟2018年10月17日冰崩-堵江-溃决灾害链的动力演化过程,采用Massflow数值模拟仿真平台,以Fortran语言为编程手段,根据研究区域地质条件特征对程序进行二次开发优化Voellmy模型,模拟冰崩-泥石流动力过程;将模拟泥石流所得到的堰塞坝体嵌入地形中,采用ArcGIS计算堰塞湖范围及体积,通过曼宁模型模拟堰塞湖溃决洪水动力过程。采用分段模拟法再现冰崩-泥石流-堵江-堰塞湖-溃坝的完整动力过程,对泥石流运动过程中的流速、流深,坝体高度,溃决洪水的流深、流速等参数进行定量化研究,为色东普流域的防灾减工作提供有效支撑。