Determination of building age for Istanbul buildings to be used for the earthquake damage analysis according to structural codes by using aerial and satellite images in GIS

Natural Hazards - Istanbul is located in one of the most active seismic zones in the world. Since Istanbul is the industrial, commercial, cultural and educational center of Turkey, it attracts...     

一种改进的软土结构性弹塑性损伤模型

提出了一个改进的土结构性弹塑性损伤模型。该模型引入修正剑桥模型的屈服函数来描述损伤土特性,并建议了新的损伤演化规律。由于剑桥模型本身建立在大量重塑土试验的基础上,故能较精确地描述完全损伤土的特性;此外,其参数有较为完善的测定方法,且积累了丰富的经验值。该改进的模型能较好地应用于工程实践,并易于推广。     

A review of flood damage analysis for a building structure and contents

Natural Hazards - As a natural hazard, flood can cause a significant damage to buildings. Buildings are one of the important components of an economy which are providing the necessary space for...     

Hindcasting community-level building damage for the 2011 Joplin EF5 tornado

Resiliency of communities prone to natural hazards can be enhanced through the use of risk-informed decision-making tools. These tools can provide community decision makers key information, thereby providing them the ability to consider an array of mitigation and/or recovery strategies. The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, headquartered at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, developed an Interdependent Networked Community Resilience (IN-CORE) computational environment. The purpose of developing this computational environment is to build a decision-support system, for professional risk planners and emergency responders, but even more focused on allowing researchers to explore community resilience science. The eventual goal was being to integrate a broad range of scientific, engineering and observational data to produce a detailed assessment of the potential impact of natural and man-made hazards for risk mitigation, planning and recovery purposes. The developing computational environment will be capable of simulating the effects from different natural hazards on the physical and socioeconomic sectors of a community, accounting for interdependencies between the sectors. However, in order to validate this computational tool, hindcasting of a real event was deemed necessary. Therefore, in this study, the community of Joplin, Missouri in the USA, which was hit by an EF-5 tornado on May 22, 2011, is modeled in the IN-CORE v1.0 computational environment. An explanation of the algorithm used within IN-CORE is also provided. This tornado was the costliest and deadliest single tornado in the USA in the last half century. Using IN-CORE, by uploading a detailed topological dataset of the community and the estimated tornado path combined with recently developed physics-based tornado fragilities, the damage caused by the tornado to all buildings in the city of Joplin was estimated. The results were compared with the damage reported from field studies following the event. This damage assessment was done using three hypothetical idealized tornado scenarios, and results show very good correlation with observed damage which will provide useful information to decision makers for community resilience planning.     

An integrated earthquake damage assessment methodology and its application for two districts in Istanbul, Turkey

This paper presents an integrated, earthquake-damage assessment that standardizes and quantifies methods of analysis. The proposed methodology evaluates all damage-causing phenomena, both individually and in combination. This approach inherently relates to soil-structure interactions by quantifying site-specific geotechnical and structural properties. Specifically considered is ground shaking, the primary damage-causing phenomenon. Also evaluated are the collateral effects of liquefaction, degradation of seismic-bearing capacity and slope failure (landslides). The methodology incorporates a literature-derived probabilistic assessment of damage-causation, and is interpreted and presented as single numbers deemed “Damage Grades.” These damage grades integrate the initial probabilistic evaluation with professional experience and judgment in order to determine potential damage to a particular structure at a particular location. This methodology was applied, with success, to two different locations in Istanbul, Turkey. It should be tested by engineering geologists and geotechnical engineers, for it may be applicable to earthquake-prone areas elsewhere.     

The analysis of 2004 flood on Kozdere Stream in Istanbul

The climatic and physiographical factors of the Kozdere Creek Watershed are examined to find out the causes of the flood of August 11, 2004. Actual land use has been obtained from forest management stand plans and classified satellite images. The multispectral digital satellite data set belonging to years 1992, 1993, and 2005 was used to determine the status of land use. Physiographic factors, including the slope and the aspect, have been identified from digitized ortho-photo maps in the GIS environment. Since flow records of Kozdere are not available, flow values corresponding to different return periods were obtained using regression analysis of neighboring streams. No noticeable alteration of the land use occurred between 1992 and 2005. Since the physical factors are the same as they were during the 1985 rain, the flood after the 2004 rainfall cannot be due to the physiographical factors of the upper watershed. The existing channel in the neighborhood is not enough to convey even the 10-year return period flow. Thus, the 2004 flow did not fit into this cross-section and flooded houses on the alluvial fan. The cross-section of the Kozdere Creek passing through the PTT neighborhood should be increased, and the surface roughness should be decreased by covering the channel with concrete in order to prevent floods.     

Seismic damage assessment based on regional synthetic ground motion dataset: a case study for Erzincan,Turkey

Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step in risk mitigation in urban regions. Structural damage patterns depend on the regional seismic properties and the local building vulnerability. In this study, a framework for seismic damage estimation is proposed where the local building fragilities are modeled based on a set of simulated ground motions in the region of interest. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are simulated for a set of scenario events using stochastic finite-fault methodology. Then, existing building stock is classified into specific building types represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom models. The response statistics of these models are evaluated through nonlinear time history analysis with the simulated ground motions. Fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived and discussed. The study area is Erzincan (Turkey), which is located on a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments in the conjunction of three active faults as right-lateral North Anatolian Fault, left-lateral North East Anatolian Fault, and left-lateral Ovacik Fault. Erzincan city center experienced devastating earthquakes in the past including the December 27, 1939 (Ms = 8.0) and the March 13, 1992 (Mw?=?6.6) events. The application of the proposed method is performed to estimate the spatial distribution of the damage after the 1992 event. The estimated results are compared against the corresponding observed damage levels yielding a reasonable match in between. After the validation exercise, a potential scenario event of Mw?=?7.0 is simulated in the study region. The corresponding damage distribution indicates a significant risk within the urban area.     

Cluster analysis of a regional-scale soil geochemical dataset in northern California

A regional-scale soil geochemical study was conducted within a 22,000 km² area in northern California including the Sierra Nevada, Sacramento Valley, and northern Coast Range. Over 1300 soil samples were chemically analyzed for 42 elements. The distribution of distinct groups of elements demonstrates the interplay of geologic, hydrologic, geomorphologic and anthropogenic factors; however, it is difficult to fully appreciate the complexity of geochemical transport and weathering processes on a landscape-scale in an area of very complex geology with such a large dataset containing more than 40 variables. To examine the data from a perspective of multi-element groupings, cluster analyses were applied to the dataset. The analysis identified several groups of elements whose spatial patterns could be related to specific geologic sources.     

Reliability analysis of the induced damage for single-hole rock blasting

Rock explosion has always been a complex problem because neither rock characteristics nor explosion waves could be accurately estimated. As such, this imposes a high uncertainty on deterministic methodologies available for damage prediction. In this paper, by defining two damage zones around the blast hole, including crushed and cracked zones, a first-order reliability analysis (FORM) was adopted to address this issue. For this purpose, FORM was used in a double-loop algorithm, where the inner loop was responsible for converging the FORM, and the outer loop was assigned to feed the inner loop with new cases. Using such nested-loop algorithm, the probability of exceedance was calculated for any desired damage zone radius. The maximum effect of the involved parameters on the failure probability induced around the blast hole was additionally studied using a parametric reliability analysis. The results showed that the radii for crushed and cracked zones are limited to 0.5 and 4.2?m, respectively, so that the probability of going beyond these limits is less than 1%. Moreover, the analyses of decoupled explosions showed that increasing the gap between the explosion charge and wall of the borehole could severely reduce the failure probability; however, the maximum effect of decoupling ratio occurs in the small range of radii between 0.3?mm and 2.35?m.     

Issues with the earthquake vulnerability of Istanbul

Istanbul today is probably unique in the world not only in terms of the recognition of its earthquake risk by its inhabitants and administrators, but also in terms of significant steps taken in a such a short time toward the mitigation of its earthquake vulnerabilities. This paper, however, deals with the issues that still remain unattended.     

Classification and regression tree theory application for assessment of building damage caused by surface deformation

A framework of applying the classification and regression tree theory (CART) for assessing the concrete building damage, caused by surface deformation, is proposed. The prognosis methods used for approximated building hazard estimation caused by continuous deformation are unsatisfactory. Variable local soil condition, changing intensity of the continuous deformation and variable resistance of the concrete buildings require the prognosis method adapted to the local condition. Terrains intensely induced by surface deformation are build-up with hundreds of building, so the method of their hazard estimation needs to be approximated and relatively fast. Therefore, promising might be addressing problems of reliable building damage risk assessment by application of classification and regression tree. The presented method based on the classification and regression tree theory enables to establish the most significant risk factors causing the building damage. Chosen risk factors underlie foundation for the concrete building damage prognosis method, which was caused by the surface continuous deformation. The established method enabled to assess the severity of building damage and was adapted to the local condition. High accuracy of shown approach is validated based on the independent data set of the buildings from the similar region. The research presented introduces the CART to determination of the risk of building damage with the emphasis on the grade of the building damage. Since presented method bases on the observations of the damages from the previous subsidence, the method might be applied to any local condition, where the previous subsidence is known.     

Liquefaction-related building damage in Adapazari during the Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999

The goal of this paper is to present especially the source and the type of liquefaction-related failures of those buildings which satisfied the structural codes of buildings and practices but experienced settlement, tilting and overturning in Adapazari during the Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999. In this context, the Adapazari region is first evaluated in terms of geological setting, tectonics, seismicity and liquefaction susceptibility based on in situ and laboratory test data. In addition, the number of stories, types of buildings and their related failures have been mapped accordingly. Furthermore, laboratory model tests are conducted to enforce and/or confirm the type of building's failures with particular reference to their geometrical shape and the number of stories assuming that the models representing buildings satisfy the structural codes of buildings and practices.     

Prioritization of hazard profile for Istanbul using Analytical Hierarchy Process

The compilation of the data for past disasters is vital for taking lessons from the past, investigating their reasons, preventing the loss in the future and for disaster planning-related works. In Turkey, especially in Istanbul which has a historical background of more than 8000 years, the demand for backdated disaster data increases to determine the dangers that the city is faced with and to analyze them. The purpose of our work is to develop a hazard profile identification model for Istanbul by using “Analytic Hierarchy Process.” Therefore, we searched for different types of disasters and hazard classifications in various national and international databases. We scrutinized the kinds of disasters, hazards and hazard characteristics that should be used for a proposed model. By examining “Istanbul’s 2000 Years of Disaster Database” and 100 years of Republic’s statistics prepared for Istanbul, we identified the disaster categories and criteria, ran the Analytic Hierarchy Process and created a hazard profile model for Istanbul. Consequently, we proved that the most important types of disasters that affect Istanbul are geophysical disasters followed by climatological, hydrological, meteorological and technological disasters. The work also shows us that the districts which have a high rate of the population such as Bagcilar, Kucukcekmece and Esenyurt are more vulnerable to these hazards.     

A rock damage constitutive model and damage energy dissipation rate analysis for characterising the crack closure effect

Due to the insufficiency of the previous damage constitutive model for rock, an improved damage mechanics model for rock is proposed with characterising the crack closure effect. Otherwise, the effective methods of determining the model parameters and crack closure coefficient are proposed. The results represent that the model can reflect the damage evolution of rocks in the deformation process in the crack closure stage and this improved model is more reasonable than the previous model. Crack closure coefficient also has great effect on distribution parameters. The calculation formula of damage energy dissipation rate considered that crack closure effect is derived and the relationships between damage energy dissipation rate and crack closure coefficient are analysed. Crack closure coefficient has great effect on damage dissipation energy rate. Damage energy dissipation rate increases with the decrease of crack closure coefficient and damage energy dissipation rate increases quickly in the post-peak stage.     

既有建筑物地下室增层开挖桩基屈曲稳定研究

既有建筑物地下室增层开挖可有效利用地下空间,是目前改善停车难问题的主要手段之一。既有建筑地下室增层开挖将改变原有桩基础的受力性状,从而可能引起原有桩基础屈曲失稳。提出一种预测地下室增层开挖既有桩基失稳的临界荷载及稳定计算长度的理论解法。首先,结合浙江饭店地下室增层开挖工程,简单介绍增层开挖方案。之后,通过Winkler弹性地基梁理论建立增层开挖工况下单桩基础桩-土体系总势能方程。最后,利用最小势能原理导得增层开挖工况下单桩基础屈曲失稳的临界荷载及稳定计算长度的表达式。在此基础上,研究了桩身临界荷载的影响因素。计算结果表明：随着半波数n的增加,既有桩基的临界荷载逐渐收敛;既有桩基的临界荷载随开挖深度的增大而急剧减小。分析结果可为类似地下室增层开挖工程的设计提供依据,减少开挖引起既有桩基础失稳隐患。     

Factorial kriging of a geochemical dataset for heavy-metal spatial-variability characterization

Characterizing the spatial patterns of variability is a fundamental aspect when investigating what could be the causes behind the spatial spreading of a set of variables. In this paper, a large multivariate dataset from the southeast of Belgium has been analyzed using factorial kriging. The purpose of the study is to explore and retrieve possible scales of spatial variability of heavy metals. This is achieved by decomposing the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate sample into coregionalization matrices, which are, in turn, decomposed into transformation matrices, which serve to decompose each regionalized variable as a sum of independent factors. Then, factorial cokriging is used to produce maps of the factors explaining most of the variance, which can be compared with maps of the underlying lithology. For the dataset analyzes, this comparison identifies a few point scale concentrations that may reflect anthropogenic contamination, and it also identifies local and regional scale anomalies clearly correlated to the underlying geology and to known mineralizations. The results from this analysis could serve to guide the authorities in identifying those areas which need remediation.     

Long-term seismicity of Istanbul and of the Marmara Sea region

We examine the long-term seismicity of the Marmara Sea region in Turkey over a period of twenty centuries to attempt to answer two questions: (1) how well recorded in history is the earthquake activity of this region? and (2) does seismicity over this long period of time differ from that over the present century? We study this densely-populated and fast-developing region because it is one of the most tectonically active regions on the continents that appears today to be relatively quiescent.     

A severe sea-effect snow episode over the city of Istanbul

In February 2005, unexpected heavy snowstorms lasted a couple of days with changing intensities, producing significant snowfall that eventually paralyzed the life of Istanbul metropolis. Surprisingly, there was no caution announcement prior to the onset of this unusual weather phenomenon. What was the reason behind this wrong prediction? In this case study, using a meteorological model, a heavy sea-effect snowfall, the reason of this phenomenon, was simulated and researched. With a persistent surface high-pressure center over western Russia, a surface low-pressure positioned in the center of southern Turkey was the dominant feature of the formation of the sea-effect snow over the city. In addition to strong northerly winds (19 m/s), low directional vertical wind shear (<30^o) and extremely long fetch distance (~600 km) feature; environmental conditions during the event were characterized by a sea-surface 850-hPa temperature difference of up to 14°C and a sea–land temperature difference as high as 24°C.     

A fault zone cause of large amplification and damage in Avcılar (west of Istanbul) during 1999 Izmit earthquake

Twenty seven buildings collapsed and 2076 buildings were heavily damaged during 17 August 1999 Izmit Earthquake in Avc?lar (west of Istanbul), which is nearly 100 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. The geology of Avc?lar consists of Upper Miocene poorly bounded conglomerate and sandstone (Çukurçe?me formation), claystone with sandstone and limestone interbedding (Güngören member) and limestone with sandstone and claystone interbedding (Bak?rköy formation). Lithological and geotechnical parameters of these formations in Avc?lar are not different from non damaged parts of the western Istanbul such as Zeytinburnu, Bak?rköy and Beylikdüzü, but these formations were cut by several faults in the damaged area. Collapsed and damaged buildings are located on this fault zone. Thus, cause of large amplification and damage in Avc?lar might be related with this fault zone because the fault zone behaves as a waveguide trapping seismic energy.