Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Oman coast from submarine earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone

The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.     

Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada

We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40–80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1–15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10–30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1–5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Numerical simulation of typhoon surges along the coast of Taiwan

A numerical model has been designed to study the storm surge induced by typhoon along the coast of Taiwan. The governing equations have been expressed in spherical coordinate system, and a finite difference method has been used to solve them. In the system of hydrodynamical equations, the nonlinear advection and lateral eddy viscosity terms are prominent in shallow coastal waters. Air pressure gradient and wind stresses are the driving forces in the model of typhoon surge. The model has been verified with storm surges induced by Typhoons Herb in 1996, and by typhoons Kai-Tak and Bilis in 2000.     

Evidence for the recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes along the Makran coast of Iran and Pakistan

The presence of raised beaches and marine terraces along the Makran coast indicates episodic uplift of the continental margin resulting from large-magnitude earthquakes. The uplift occurs as incremental steps similar in height to the 1–3 m of measured uplift resulting from the November 28, 1945 (M 8.3) earthquake at Pasni and Ormara, Pakistan. The data support an E—W-trending, active subduction zone off the Makran coast.The raised beaches and wave-cut terraces along the Makran coast are extensive with some terraces 1–2 km wide, 10–15 m long and up to 500 m in elevation. The terraces are generally capped with shelly sandstones 0.5–5 m thick. Wave-cut cliffs, notches, and associated boulder breccia and swash troughs are locally preserved. Raised Holocene accretion beaches, lagoonal deposits, and tombolos are found up to 10 m in elevation. The number and elevation of raised wave-cut terraces along the Makran coast increase eastward from one at Jask, the entrance to the Persian Gulf, at a few meters elevation, to nine at Konarak, 250 km to the east. Multiple terraces are found on the prominent headlands as far east as Karachi. The wave-cut terraces are locally tilted and cut by faults with a few meters of displacement.Long-term, average rates of uplift were calculated from present elevation, estimated elevation at time of deposition, and ¹⁴C and U–Th dates obtained on shells. Uplift rates in centimeters per year at various locations from west to east are as follows: Jask, 0 (post-Sangamon); Konarak, 0.031–0.2 (Holocene), 0.01 (post-Sangamon); Ormara 0.2 (Holocene).     

Expected tsunami amplitudes and currents along the North American coast for Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

Tsunamis are numerically modeled using the nonlinear shallow-water equations for three hypothetical Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitudes and currents are tabulated for 131 sites along the North American coast. Earthquake source parameters are chosen to satisfy known subduction zone configuration and thermal constraints. These source parameters are used as input to compute vertical sea-floor displacement. The three earthquakes modeled are moment magnitude 8.8, 8.5, and 7.8. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitude for theMw = 8.8 earthquake is near 6 m normal to the fault break and maximum current is near 3.5 m/s. Maximum amplitudes decrease by about one-half north and south of the fault break in the source region. Tsunami amplitudes vary along the Alaskan coast from less than 0.5 to 1.6 m. The modeled amplitudes for theMw = 8.8 quake decrease to less than 0.4 m south of Point Conception, CA. TheMw = 7.8 earthquake generates a tsunami with a maximum amplitude of less than 1 m normal to the source. North and south of the fault break the maximum amplitude again decreases by about one-half. In all the models, amplitudes and currents arc less than one-sixth of the outer coast value within Puget Sound.     

广东沿海陆地地质灾害系统与灾害动力学

依据地质灾害发生的动力学机制以及对地表的影响深度和灾害载体的运动特征，将广东陆地地质灾害划分为三类灾害系，即表层灾害系、表－浅层灾害系和表－深层灾害系，其影响因素和动力源是大气圈、水圈、岩石圈、生物圈及人文圈（人类活动）。五大圈造成了地质灾害系的形成、演化和发展，又反过来影响这五大圈的变化。灾害系的能量源归属于三大类：日地系统、地球系统和人类系统。文中指出人类系统的能量源在地质环境和地质灾害的形成、演化中占有越来越重要的地位。     

High-resolution coastal hazard assessment along the French Riviera from co-seismic tsunamis generated in the Ligurian fault system

Natural Hazards - The French Riviera is a densely populated and touristic coast. It is also one of the most seismically active areas of the Western Mediterranean. This is evidenced by the Mw...     

Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale

In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.     

Neotectonics and seismic hazard assessment in Hengchun Peninsula,southern Taiwan

Neotectonic data may indicate whether stored elastic energy will be dissipated or released destructively. The Hengchun Peninsula of Taiwan is the southern extremity of the Central Range of Taiwan and thus an emergent part of the accretionary wedge resulting from subduction of Eurasia beneath the Philippine Sea plate at the Manila Trench. Radiocarbon dating of fossil shorelines on the peninsula shows that it has been uplifted at an average rate of 3.8 mm/yr during the Holocene. About $1/3$ of the uplift is due to deformation along the Hengchun reverse fault but, in contrast with the Chelungpu and other low angle reverse faults west of the Central Range, it accommodates strain principally by aseismic creep. To cite this article: C. Vita-Finzi, J.-C. Lin, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Seismic hazard assessment and rheological implications: a case study selected for cities of Saudi Arabia along the eastern coast of Red Sea

A probabilistic approach is used to evaluate the seismic hazard for 12 strategic cities in Saudi Arabia along the eastern coast of Red Sea. The focal depth variations controlled by rheological characteristics are taken into account for hazard calculations, and its creditability is tested through sensitivity analysis for hazard results. This study presents a neo-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology in which the focal depth distribution of earthquakes within seismogenic layer is divided into three depth slices. These depth slices are based upon rheological characteristic of seismogenic layer. The hazard results are obtained using this depth-slice methodology and conventional approach in which uniform distribution of seismicity within seismogenic layer is assumed. The sensitivity analysis culminated in underestimation of hazard values in higher frequencies for uniform distribution of seismicity within seismogenic layer. Foregoing the observations recorded above, it can be concluded that the exploitation of depth-slices biased by the rheology to calculate hazard is relatively preferable in the situations demanding safety measures.     

Relative sea-level trends during the early–middle Holocene along the eastern coast of mainland Scotland, UK

Previously published radiocarbon-dated horizons relating to early and middle Holocene relative sea-level change along the eastern coast of mainland Scotland are examined and trends determined. The data are modified to ensure comparability and are compared against the pattern of glacio-isostatic uplift in the area. Results show that the rate of relative sea-level rise during the Main Postglacial Transgression in the middle Holocene becomes greater towards the edge of the uplifted area, whilst the age of the Main Postglacial Shoreline becomes younger in the same direction. Linear and quadratic regression analyses disclose trends which indicate that at the 0 m HWMOST isobase of the Main Postglacial Shoreline the rate of relative sea level rise between c. 8400 and c . 7000 14 C years BP ( c . 9500 to c . 7900 cal. BP) was 5-11 mm/radiocarbon year or 6-11 mm/calibrated year, whilst at the same isobase the Main Postglacial Shoreline was reached between 5500 and 6100 14 C years BP (between 6300 and 7000 cal. BP). The relative sea-level changes identified are compatible with a rising sea surface level offshore, which may have involved three episodes, possibly related to regional and wider deglaciation.     

Tsunami magnitudes in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia

The regional characteristics of tsunami magnitudes in the SE Asia region are discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1960 to 1994. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale are investigated by the author's method (Hatori 1979, 1986) using the data of inundation heights near the source area and tide-gauge records observed in Japan. The magnitude values of the Taiwan tsunamis showed relatively to be small. On the contrary, the magnitudes of tsunamis in the vicinities of the Philippines and Indonesia exceed more than 1–2 grade (tsunami heights: 2–5 times) compared to earthquakes with similar size on the circum-Pacific zone. The relation between tsunami magnitude, m, and earthquake magnitude, M _s, is expressed as m = 2.66 M _s– 17.5 for these regions. For example, the magnitudes for the 1976 Mindanao tsunami (M _s= 7.8, 3702 deaths) and the 1992 Flores tsunami (M _s= 7.5, 1713 deaths) were determined to be m = 3 and m = 2.5, respectively. The focal depth of tsunamigenic earthquakes is shallower thand< 36 km, and the detectively of tsunamis is small for deep earthquakes being d > 40 km. For future tsunamis, it is indispensable to take precautions against shallow earthquakes having the magnitudes M _s> 6.5.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Constantine region,Northeast of Algeria

This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M _l, m _b) and intensities (I ₀, I _MM, I _MSK and I _EMS) were converted to M _s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M _max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012.     

Landslide susceptibility assessment along the southern coast of the Caspian Sea,Iran

China is a disaster-prone country, and these disasters have diverse characteristics, a wide scope of distribution, high frequency, and large losses. China has advanced community-based disaster management (CBDM) capacity. Community is the bottom unit of the society, and CBDM is the foundation of the entire society’s disaster management system. A series of domestic major emergency incidents and disasters and international disaster reduction activities have promoted the formation of the CBDM concept, the implementation of capacity building activities, and the improvement of policy and laws. Thus far, the CBDM system has been preliminarily formed in China, and relevant rules and regulations have been promulgated and implemented. Furthermore, disaster reduction activities, such as the construction of the national comprehensive disaster reduction community and national safe community, have been promoted nationwide. As a result, China’s disaster-resistance capacity has largely improved. However, it is only in the initial phase of CBDM implementation, which remains plagued by several challenges and problems, such as the deficiency of community resident participation, management organizations, disaster risk assessment methods, NGO development, and safety culture cultivation.