Fairness of China’s provincial energy environment efficiency evaluation: empirical analysis using a three-stage data envelopment analysis model

China has become the world’s largest carbon emitter since 2007; thus, reducing future emission has become an arduous task. Calculating energy efficiency fairly is paramount for formulating energy policies, given the different development levels of provinces. This study employed a three-stage data envelopment analysis model that considered environmental constraints to evaluate the energy efficiency of China’s 30 provinces in 2015 and redefined traditional energy efficiency as energy environment efficiency which calculated under environmental constraints. Different factors, such as urban development level and industrial structure in relation to energy environment efficiency, were analyzed. Three main results were obtained. First, the average energy environment efficiency in 2015 was only 0.73, which showed that China has roughly 30% capacity for improvement in the future. Second, stochastic frontier analysis demonstrated that the industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and central heating systems exerted negative impacts, and the level of city design and the degree of openness exerted positive effects on energy environment efficiency. Third, capital, manpower, and the extent of industrial concentration in central and western regions should be increased to improve China’s energy environment efficiency.

     

A survey-based analysis of the public’s willingness for disaster relief in China

Natural Hazards - Meteorological disasters frequently occur in China and around the world. These natural hazards can cause huge economic losses and threaten the personal safety of citizens. The...     

Predicting the resilience of transport infrastructure to a natural disaster using Cox’s proportional hazards regression model

Transport infrastructure is at significant risk of direct damage from extreme climate events such as flooding, where the cost implications of delayed recovery are generally significant. Previous research in this regard has focused on the technical and engineering aspects of infrastructure construction. The risk management of resilient transport infrastructure is poorly considered, and little has been done to quantify the capacity of transport infrastructure to recover from the impact of natural disasters under varying conditions. This paper applies Cox’s proportional hazards regression model to determine the rate of recovery and cumulative probability that recovery occurs for transport infrastructure across regional areas in New South Wales, Australia. Data for post-disaster reconstruction projects over the period 1992–2012 are used to analyze recovery rate against geographic region, natural disaster type and post-disaster transport infrastructure reconstruction cost. Results demonstrate that transport infrastructure recovered slowest when the failure is the result of a flood rather than bushfire or storm, and in regions with a riverine geography. To validate the accuracy of the model, a bootstrap resampling technique is used. The bootstrap result confirms that the model is robust and reasonable.

     

China’s tropical cyclone disaster risk source analysis based on the gray density clustering

In recent years, tropical cyclones on the Pacific Northwest have decreased. We cannot infer that tropical cyclones impact China have reduced, because the Pacific Northwest is not homogeneous, and the variation characteristics of tropical cyclones in different sea areas are not clear. This paper uses gray relational density clustering algorithm to cluster tropical cyclone data sets between 1949 and 2008, according to the generated position of tropical cyclones, generated density and the possibility of landing. The Pacific Northwest is divided into different sea areas. Then, we analyze the risk of tropical cyclones generated in these sea areas. The results show that the probability of tropical cyclones landing generated in some sea areas is very high, reached 74 %, but the probability of tropical cyclones landing generated in other sea areas is only 2 %. Tropical cyclones generated in some sea areas are more likely to develop into typhoons, strong typhoons and so on, but the intensity of tropical cyclones generated in other sea areas is lower, there is little risk for China. Finally, according to the climate change stage trends, we divide the period 1949–2008 into three stages and analyze the tropical cyclone risk of each sea areas.     

China’s regional meteorological disaster loss analysis and evaluation based on grey cluster model

To evaluate the regional meteorological disaster loss of China, this paper analyzed the different types of meteorological disasters, including droughts, floods, tropical storms, snowstorms and hail disasters. Based on the analysis about Chinese geographical features, the historical characteristics of different meteorological disasters are analyzed. In particular, these meteorological disasters influence to agriculture production are discussed. According to the analysis of data from 2004 to 2010, we know that the distribution characteristics are very different about different disasters. Provinces like Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shanxi and Yunnan are serious affected areas of drought influence. And Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan and Heilongjiang are serious affected areas by floods and heavy rain. While Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Shandong are mainly affected by tropical storms, Henan, Hebei, Hunan and Hubei are serious affected by snowstorms and hail disasters. Then, a novel method based on grey cluster model is constructed and combined with the regional meteorological disaster loss evaluation index system. A total of 31 provinces are considered to evaluate the integrated meteorological disaster losses. The results indicated that Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Xizang, Qinghai and Ningxia belong to the lighter loss grey class. Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Hainan, Sichuan and Gansu belong to the serious loss grey class. Other regions belong to the general loss grey class that the influence caused by meteorological disasters not better than the lighter loss grey class and not worst than the serious loss grey class.     

Contamination of seismicity catalogs by quarry blasts: An example from İstanbul and its vicinity,northwestern Turkey

Scientists have proposed two fault systems of different ages in the Sea of Marmara: the Thrace-Eski?ehir Fault Zone of Early Miocene–Early Pliocene age and the North Anatolian Fault Zone of Late Pliocene–Recent age. Different seismicity rates and extensions of these faults onto land near ?stanbul have been suggested. One of the reasons for these differences is the contamination of seismicity catalogs by seismic events from quarries operated in ?stanbul and its vicinity, including Gaziosmanpa?a (Cebeci and Kemerburgaz), Çatalca, Ömerli, Gebze, and Hereke.In this study, we investigated waveforms of 179 seismic events (1.8 < Md < 3.0) from the KOERI, NEMC digital database. We determined differences between earthquakes and quarry blasts based on time- and frequency-domain analyses of their seismograms (amplitude peak ratio, power ratio, and spectral amplitude ratio) and used these differences as discriminants. The results of this study indicate that 15% and 85% of the investigated seismic events are earthquakes and quarry blasts, respectively.     

Evaluating cut slope failure by numerical analysis—a case study

Slope failure is very common phenomenon in hilly regions, especially in young techno active mountainous like Himalayas. It is hazardous because of the accompanying progressive movement of the slope-forming material. In order to minimize the landslide effects, slope failure analysis and stabilization requires in depth understanding of the process that governs the behavior of the slope. The present article mainly deals with the analysis of the stability of road cut slopes of Rudraprayag Area, Uttarakhand, India. The area experiences local as well as regional slides every year. Extensive field study was carried out along the road cut slopes. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the various Physio-mechanical properties of rock mass. These properties have been used as input parameters for the numerical simulation of slope using FLAC3D (Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua) including geological discontinuities. The computed deformations and the stress distribution along the failure surface are compared with the field observations. The study indicates that the overall slope is unstable except at the location E where slope is critically stable. The effects of instability have been thoroughly considered and remedial measures have been recommended.     

The Strandja Massif and the İstanbul Zone were once parts of the same palaeotectonic unit: new data from Triassic detrital zircons

Spatially continuous rock assemblages that share similar environmental evolution or structural features can be classified as a single tectonic unit. This approach enables to link dispersed units or massifs with each other and sometimes can be subjective, depending on the classification criteria. The relationship and the nature of the contact between the Strandja Massif and the ?stanbul Zone have been controversial due to the Cainozoic cover. Amalgamation of these units was claimed as early as the Aptian-Albian.

Lower Triassic sedimentary rocks, which are overlain by the Carboniferous flysch with a N-verging thrust fault are exposed NW of the ?stanbul Zone. This study reveals the spatial relationship between the Strandja Massif and the ?stanbul Zone deduced from the U-Pb dating and Lu-Hf isotopes of the detrital zircons from these Lower Triassic clastics. Our results show that the early Triassic basin was fed from a provenance that included arc-related Upper Carboniferous-Lower Permian magmatic rocks which is much more likely to be the Strandja Massif than the ?stanbul Zone. The second outcome of this study is that a unit that previously assigned to Palaeozoic turned out to be Triassic, which brings the Strandja Massif farther to the east, into the northern ?stanbul Zone.     

Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory for modelling community resilience to natural disasters

This paper advocates the use of Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory as a framework to analyse resilience at diverse scales. Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory can be employed to (a) benchmark social resilience, (b) target the priority interventions required and (c) measure progress arising from these interventions to enhance resilience to natural disasters. First, the paper explores resilience to natural disasters in the context of climatic change as building resilience is seen as a way to mitigate impacts of natural disasters. Second, concepts of resilience are systematically examined and documented, outlining resilience as a trait and resilience as a process. Third, issues arising in relation to the measurement of resilience are discussed. Fourth, Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological systems theory is described and proffered to model and assess resilience at different scales. Fifth, studies are described which have supported the use of the bioecological systems theory for the study of resilience. Sixth, an example of the use of Bronfenbrenner’s theory is offered and the paper concludes with suggestions for future research using Bronfenbrenner’s theory.     

Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in county unit

China faces drought disaster risk under the changing climate. Risk analysis is a suitable approach in order to design ex-ante measure able to anticipate effects of drought on agricultural production. In this article, with the support of historic drought disaster data from 583 agro-meteorological observations (1991–2009), a risk analysis method based on information diffusion theory was applied to create a new drought risk analysis model, and the risk of China’s agriculture drought disaster was evaluated on higher spatial resolution of county unit. The results show that in more than three hundred counties of China, risk probability was biyearly or annually when Drought Affected Index (DAI) was over 5%. When DAI was up to 40%, more than one hundred counties were prone to drought disaster annually or once every 5 years. This showed that the impact of drought disaster on China’s agriculture, whether in frequency or intensity, was large. With the different level of DAI, China’s agricultural drought risk pattern showed variable pattern characteristics. When DAI was low, the distribution of county agricultural drought risk in China presented the East–West pattern of differentiation, and high risk mainly lied in the eastern, low risk mainly in the western. On the other hand, when DAI was high, the distribution of county risk appeared a pattern of high in center, and the north areas higher than the south, increased gradually from southwest to northeast. Drought risk presents a clear zonal differentiation that may be result from stepped topography, different precipitation and hazard-affected bodies. Spread of high value area of drought risk in northern may be related to the southeast monsoon and ecological degradation in northern Ecotone.     

Composite risk assessment of typhoon-induced disaster for China’s coastal area

Natural Hazards - Typhoons, as one of the most devastating natural hazards in China’s coastal area, have caused considerable personal injury and property damage throughout history. An...     

Women’s empowerment following disaster: a longitudinal study of social change

This paper examines changes in gender relations in a small coastal community as a result of the 2010 Chile earthquake and tsunami. Vulnerability and resilience are used as a conceptual framework to analyse these changes. Based on empirical evidence from a seven-year longitudinal study and quasi-ethnographic work, we explore changes in power relations at the different stages of the disaster and longer-term recovery as well as the conditions that fostered these changes. Our findings show distinct patterns of change. First, disasters can trigger long-lasting changes that challenge historical patriarchal relations. Second, while vulnerability increases following a disaster, resilience can potentially counteract women’s vulnerability. We propose that resilience can be a pathway to produce long-term changes in gender relations and empower women in the context of disasters.     

Spherical harmonic analysis of earth’s conductive heat flow

A reappraisal of the international heat flow database has been carried out and the corrected data set was employed in spherical harmonic analysis of the conductive component of global heat flow. Procedures used prior to harmonic analysis include analysis of the heat flow data and determination of representative mean values for a set of discretized area elements of the surface of the earth. Estimated heat flow values were assigned to area elements for which experimental data are not available. However, no corrections were made to account for the hypothetical effects of regional-scale convection heat transfer in areas of oceanic crust. New sets of coefficients for 12° spherical harmonic expansion were calculated on the basis of the revised and homogenized data set. Maps derived on the basis of these coefficients reveal several new features in the global heat flow distribution. The magnitudes of heat flow anomalies of the ocean ridge segments are found to have mean values of less than 150 mW/m². Also, the mean global heat flow values for the raw and binned data are found to fall in the range of 56–67 mW/m², down by nearly 25% compared to the previous estimate of 1993, but similar to earlier assessments based on raw data alone. To improve the spatial resolution of the heat flow anomalies, the spherical harmonic expansions have been extended to higher degrees. Maps derived using coefficients for 36° harmonic expansion have allowed identification of new features in regional heat flow fields of several oceanic and continental segments. For example, lateral extensions of heat flow anomalies of active spreading centers have been outlined with better resolution than was possible in earlier studies. Also, the characteristics of heat flow variations in oceanic crust away from ridge systems are found to be typical of conductive cooling of the lithosphere, there being little need to invoke the hypothesis of unconfined hydrothermal circulation on regional scales. Calculations of global conductive heat loss, compatible with the observational data set, are found to fall in the range of 29–34 TW, nearly 25% less than the 1993 estimate, which rely on one-dimensional conductive cooling models.     

Study on the improvement of disaster resistance against tsunamis at Taiwan’s Keelung Port

Natural Hazards - Keelung Port is one of the international commercial ports in Northern Taiwan. In 1867, a tsunami hit the Port, causing hundreds of casualties. In order to minimize the impact of...     

China’s regional rainstorm floods disaster evaluation based on grey incidence multiple-attribute decision model

This paper deals with the problem of the estimation of rainstorm floods disaster. Based on the relevant historical disaster data of Yearbook of Meteorological Disasters in China (2005–2010), the initial disaster data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in mainland China (Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan excluded) are processed into evaluation indices values. And then, the incidence degrees of disaster data are calculated. The disaster situation of rainstorm floods disaster for each region in mainland China from 2004 to 2009 is estimated by applied the grey incidence decision model of the dynamic multiple attribute. Simultaneously, the comprehensive quantitative assessment of the rainstorm and flood disaster of each region in mainland China nearly 6 years is conducted. According to the assessment results of 2004–2009 torrential rain and flood disaster in Chinese mainland, the level division of disaster loss is investigated. And the disaster loss of mainland China’s 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions is divided into five levels in which the national flood disaster situation zoning maps are constructed. The results demonstrate that the evaluation method of rainstorm floods disaster is practical and effective.     

An analysis of modern discrete movements of the Earth’s crustal blocks in geodynamically active regions based on GPS data

In this work original algorithms are proposed that allow us to provide a set of points (clusters) on a surface that are in cooperative motion, on the basis of an analysis of GPS data. A single angular velocity vector can describe this movement. The selected clusters are interpreted as rigid blocks. Methods for determining the relative movements of blocks have been developed. The possibilities of the methods are demonstrated using the example of an analysis of blocks in Western Turkey.