基于表面位移的公路滑坡监测预警研究

公路滑坡是常见的地质灾害,但对运营期公路边坡进行长期监测并成功预警的实例却很少。主要原因是公路边坡点多、线长、规模小、缺乏详细的地质勘探资料、监测费用高、预警难度大。利用拉索触发式位移计对滑坡表面位移进行监测,精度可达1 mm,通过电信的GPRS公网实时传送到远程监控中心,全程自动化,且费用低。同时,利用有限元商用软件 PLAXIS的强度折减模块和塑性分析模块对不同参数组合进行计算,在缺乏滑坡岩土体强度参数、渗透系数、土-水特征曲线等资料的情况下,建立滑坡安全系数与表面监测位移的关系, 从而通过表面位移量的变化进行阶段式预警,并制定相应的预防措施。提出的方法已在湘西某高速公路滑坡获得应用。     

基于虚拟参考站技术的滑坡高精度位移监测系统设计与实践

采用北斗卫星定位技术对滑坡地表位移进行实时监测是构建"人防+技防"地质灾害监测预警体系的有效技术手段。本文梳理了目前北斗位移监测系统的应用现状,分析了"一点一基站"模式在规模化应用中存在的问题,提出了基于虚拟参考站(Virtual Reference Station,VRS)技术的滑坡高精度位移监测系统设计方案,并结合黄土地区滑坡监测预警工作实际需求在陕西省榆林市佳县开展了示范应用,总结出"虚拟基站+自适应解算"的技术路线,为北斗卫星定位技术在地质灾害监测预警中规模化应用提供了实践经验。     

Integration of a limit-equilibrium model into a landslide early warning system

Landslides are a significant hazard in many parts of the world and exhibit a high, and often underestimated, damage potential. Deploying landslide early warning systems is one risk management strategy that, amongst others, can be used to protect local communities. In geotechnical applications, slope stability models play an important role in predicting slope behaviour as a result of external influences; however, they are only rarely incorporated into landslide early warning systems. In this study, the physically based slope stability model CHASM (Combined Hydrology and Stability Model) was initially applied to a reactivated landslide in the Swabian Alb to assess stability conditions and was subsequently integrated into a prototype of a semi-automated landslide early warning system. The results of the CHASM application demonstrate that for several potential shear surfaces the Factor of Safety is relatively low, and subsequent rainfall events could cause instability. To integrate and automate CHASM within an early warning system, international geospatial standards were employed to ensure the interoperability of system components and the transferability of the implemented system as a whole. The CHASM algorithm is automatically run as a web processing service, utilising fixed, predetermined input data, and variable input data including hydrological monitoring data and quantitative rainfall forecasts. Once pre-defined modelling or monitoring thresholds are exceeded, a web notification service distributes SMS and email messages to relevant experts, who then determine whether to issue an early warning to local and regional stakeholders, as well as providing appropriate action advice. This study successfully demonstrated the potential of this new approach to landslide early warning. To move from demonstration to active issuance of early warnings demands the future acquisition of high-quality data on mechanical properties and distributed pore water pressure regimes.     

基于数字滑坡技术的暴雨滑坡、泥石流预警、监测模型研究

中国学者在暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测预报研究领域取得的成果为采用数字滑坡技术进行暴雨滑坡、泥石流预警、监测模型研究提供了宝贵的基础,应用数字滑坡技术建立暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测模型的原则是：（1）必须在滑坡、泥石流形成条件理论指导下;（2）应了解研究区地质环境及滑坡、泥石流特征;（3）就基于数字滑坡技术而言,只能选取遥感方法可能...     

Rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning system in Nakhon Si Thammarat

Transient seepage in unsaturated soil slope is one of the significant triggering factors in rainfall-induced landslides. Rainfall infiltration leads to the decrease in stabilizing effect because of increased positive pore-water pressures. SEEP/W and SLOPE/W used in this study have been widely employed to describe frameworks for understanding transient seepage in soil slope, and to perform slope stability analyses, respectively. The study area is in Sichon District in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, southern Thailand. A landslide there was investigated by modeling the process of rainfall infiltration under positive and negative pore-water pressures and their effects on slope stability. GIS (Geographic Information System) and geotechnical laboratory results were used as input parameters. The van Genuchten’s soil water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function were used to estimate surface infiltration rates. An average rainfall was derived from 30-year monthly rainfall data between 1981 and 2011 in this area reported by the Thailand Royal Irrigation Department. For transient condition, finite element analysis in SEEP/W was employed to model fluctuations in pore-water pressure during a rainfall, using the computed water infiltration rates as surface boundary conditions. SLOPE/W employing Bishop simplified method was then carried out to compute their factors of safety, and antecedent precipitation indices (API) calculated. Heterogeneous slope at the site became unstable at an average critical API (API_cr) of 380 mm, agreeing well with the actual value of 388 mm.     

拉线式滑坡地表位移实时监测系统应用实例

拉线式滑坡地表位移实时监测系统是测量地表相对位移的监测仪器,在很多滑坡中已得到实际应用。该系统的特点是将传统的拉线式测量原理与现代通讯技术有机结合,由数据采集系统,数据处理中心和客户端这三大部分组成。当测点发生位移时,所连接的钢丝线将随之移动发生变化,这一信息由角位移传感器记录并转化为相应的电信号,数据采集系统将电信号转换成数字信号,并利用现有的移动通信网络将信号传输到数据处理中心。最后利用编制的软件进行数据分析,给出被测点的位移随时间变化的规律。同时,数据处理中心可以根据现场情况,对现场的数据采集频率进行更改。通过对凉水井滑坡实时监测数据的分析和对比,对该滑坡的危险性等级进行了评估和险情预警,证明该系统不受地理环境、气候等因素的限制,并说明了此种监测方法运用于滑坡实时监测具有很高的实用价值。但是该系统还需要作进一步改进,以克服自身存在的一些缺陷。     

速度倒数法滑坡预警模型流变试验研究

滑坡失稳的预测预报研究是地质工程领域中的一项重要课题,准确地确定预测预报理论模型的参数是实际应用中的难点。在实际滑坡监测中通常可以观察到位移曲线呈现阶梯形,这些阶梯形位移变化点就是滑坡的变形突变点。为研究滑坡变形突变点的变形特征,进行了不同荷载作用下的天然试样以及不同荷载、不同含水率作用下的浸水试样的流变试验,得到了累计位移-时间曲线以及变形速度-时间曲线。依据秦四清的锁固段理论以及速度倒数法滑坡预警模型对试验结果进行分析。研究结果表明：荷载和含水率的变化对模型参数没有影响,模型参数是关于材料属性的函数;变形过程中突变点的变形特征与破坏时的变形特征相似,并且速度倒数法预警模型在突变点和破坏点确定的模型参数基本一致。因此,滑坡监测曲线中早期位移突变点确定的模型参数可以用于确定滑坡破坏时的预警模型。     

滑坡变形高精度智能化监测预警技术研究与实践

根据滑坡的勘察评价、治理工程设计、工程施工、防治效果评价、灾害预警等工作阶段,对变形监测成果的高精度要求,分析了滑坡变形监测的现状以及成果精度、数据可靠性等方面存在的问题,深入研究了高精度、智能化滑坡变形监测的技术方案,并在多个大型复杂滑坡和特殊高陡边坡监测中进行了实践应用。解决了常规滑坡监测难以获得高精度变形成果的问题,为滑坡变形评价、灾害监测预警等提供高效、可靠、高精度的监测数据,提出了很好的工作方案。     

多通道滑坡位移监测仪的研制

文章提出一种滑坡表层位移监测方法,设计并研制了四通道位移监测仪器。该仪器选用特制的拉杆位移传感器完成滑坡位移传感,单片机逻辑控制实现位移监测数据动态显示,并对大量程、急速位移滑动做声光预警,监测数据自动保存。文章阐述了其工作原理及软硬件设计思路,并介绍了位移监测仪在三峡万州库区塘角村1号滑坡的野外应用实验。     

基于无限边坡算法的降雨型滑坡预警系统的模型试验研究

滑坡预警系统是减少降雨型滑坡灾害的重要手段,其中针对具体单个滑坡失稳的预警系统,尽管具有较好的物理判断依据,但由于其构造机制较为复杂,目前仍然比较少见。基于无限边坡算法构建了较为简单的实验室降雨型滑坡技术性预警系统,并详细介绍了该系统的预警思路、预警时间计算原理、信息交流及反馈的实现。通过模型试验结果考察该预警系统在估算不同降雨强度及不同初始含水状态下滑坡失稳时间的表现,并对模型试验结果、预警能力进行分析。结果表明,基于无限边坡算法的预警系统的预警能力尽管受到降雨侵蚀、滑动面位置、初始含水状态的影响,但仍然具有较好的准确性。     

r.massmov: an open-source landslide model for dynamic early warning systems

This paper illustrates the main characteristics of the newly developed landslide model r.massmov, which is based on the shallow water equations, and is capable of simulating the landslide propagation over complex topographies. The model is the result of the reimplementation of the MassMov2D into the free and open-source GRASS GIS with a series of enhancements aiming at allowing its possible integration into innovative early warning monitoring systems and specifically into Web processing services. These improvements, finalized at significantly reducing computational times, include the introduction of a new automatic stopping criterion, fluidization process algorithm, and the parallel computing. Moreover, the results of multi-spatial resolution analysis conducted on a real case study located in the southern Switzerland are presented. In particular, this analysis, composed by a sensitivity analysis and calibration process, allowed to evaluate the model capabilities in simulating the phenomenon at different input data resolution. The results illustrate that the introduced modifications lead to important reductions in the computational time (more than 90 % faster) and that, using the lower dataset resolution capable of guaranteeing reliable results, the model can be run in about 1 s instead of the 3.5 h required by previous model with not optimized dataset resolution. Aside, the results of the research are a series of new GRASS GIS modules for conducting sensitivity analysis and for calibration. The latter integrates the automated calibration program “UCODE” with any GRASS raster module. Finally, the research workflow presented in this paper illustrates a best practice in applying r.massmov in real case applications.     

基于WEBGIS与三库一体模式的土壤盐渍化监测预警系统平台研发

随着计算机应用操作技术不断进步,软件技术的不断完善以及可视化技术的蓬勃发展,使WEBGIS系统的可操作性能越来越好。本文以新疆渭库绿洲盐渍地为背景,提出了基于GIS、网络技术与安全监测相结合的WEBGIS与"三库一体模式"技术的平台。首先根据大量野外实测数据、文献资料、人文经济数据、基础地理地质等数据建立SQL Server数据库,之后以集成适用于盐渍地特点的21种监测模型的模型库为主导,调用盐渍化分析方法,提取数据进行相关计算,对模型求解并辅助专家进行决策。本系统采用B/S模式,HTML(超文本标记语言)设计并建立盐渍化监测预警模型,分析评价盐渍化程度、影响及其发展趋势,从而开发出盐渍化监测与预警智能分析相结合的系统工程应用网络。系统实现了数据库的储存、分析和管理;盐渍化监测模型分析;信息结果发布等功能。提高了地理空间信息的表现力,促进了干旱区信息化应用水平和信息共享平台扩展,为区域可持续发展提供了强有力的技术支撑。     

基于WebGIS的地质灾害预警预报信息系统的设计与实现

论述了基于网络地理信息系统的地质灾害预警预报信息系统的总体框架结构、系统设计要点和系统功能特点,并对采用的关键技术进行了简要分析说明。系统采用部署灵活、扩展性强的三层体系结构,基于模块化思想进行设计与实现,以分布式架构集成异构的数据源,并建立了模型库管理决策模型。系统以地质灾害预警预报数据数学模型为核心,应用数据库技术、基于FeatureBase的地理信息系统技术和网络技术建立了融合通用地理信息功能与地质灾害预警预报业务功能的分布式软件系统,实现了地质灾害信息采集、传输、管理、分析、决策、发布的一体化平台。现场实施表明,该系统运行稳定,能有效为职能部门提供辅助决策支持和信息发布服务。     

An acoustic emission landslide early warning system for communities in low-income and middle-income countries

Early warning systems for slope instability are needed to alert users of accelerating slope deformation behaviour, enable evacuation of vulnerable people, and conduct timely repair and maintenance of critical infrastructure. Communities exposed to landslide risk in low- and middle-income countries seldom currently instrument and monitor slopes to provide a warning of instability because existing techniques are complex and prohibitively expensive. Research and field trials have demonstrated conclusively that acoustic emission (AE) monitoring can be an effective approach to detect accelerating slope movements and to subsequently communicate warnings to users. The objective of this study was to develop and assess a simple, robust, low-cost AE monitoring system to warn of incipient landslides, which can be widely deployed and operated by communities globally to help protect vulnerable people. This paper describes a novel AE measurement sensor that has been designed and developed with the cost constrained to a few hundred dollars (US). Results are presented from physical model experiments that demonstrate performance of the AE system in measuring accelerating deformation behaviour, with quantifiable relationships between AE and displacement rates. Exceedance of a pre-determined trigger level of AE can be used to communicate an alarm to users in order to alert them of a slope failure. Use of this EWS approach by communities worldwide would reduce the number of fatalities caused by landslides.     

基于降雨滑坡机理的水文过程监测系统设计

本文在简要回顾前人降雨滑坡水文过程研究的基础上,针对深圳市某一填土滑坡,设计了降雨诱发滑坡的水文过程全自动监测系统,可以用来监测滑坡点的降雨特征、饱和-非饱和入渗过程、自由水渗流过程及微承压水渗流过程等降雨条件下斜坡的水文响应过程。该监测系统的提出在降雨条件下微承压水渗流过程的监测方法,体现了基于降雨滑坡水文过程的监测设计思想,不仅有助于降雨滑坡水文作用机理的研究,还给相关工作提供了有益的借鉴意义。     

Implementation and integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system: a pilot study in Colombia

Landslide early warning systems (EWS) are an important tool to reduce landslide risks, especially where the potential for structural protection measures is limited. However, design, implementation, and successful operation of a landslide EWS is complex and has not been achieved in many cases. Critical problems are uncertainties related to landslide triggering conditions, successful implementation of emergency protocols, and the response of the local population. We describe here the recent implementation of a landslide EWS for the Combeima valley in Colombia, a region particularly affected by landslide hazards. As in many other cases, an insufficient basis of data (rainfall, soil measurements, landslide event record) and related uncertainties represent a difficult complication. To be able to better assess the influence of the different EWS components, we developed a numerical model that simulates the EWS in a simplified yet integrated way. The results show that the expected landslide-induced losses depend nearly exponentially on the errors in precipitation measurements. Stochastic optimization furthermore suggests an increasing adjustment of the rainfall landslide-triggering threshold for an increasing observation error. These modeling studies are a first step toward a more generic and integrated approach that bears important potential for substantial improvements in design and operation of a landslide EWS.     

分布式基坑监测信息管理与预警系统的研制

针对基坑监测的信息化、集成化、共享化要求,开发了基于GIS的分布式基坑监测信息管理与预警系统。介绍了系统的结构框架,着重介绍了系统实现的功能。在GIS图形可视化技术基础上,系统地实现了区域内多个基坑地质勘察、设计、施工等资料及测点信息、监测仪器、监测数据、周边建筑物等相关资料的全面采集,并在此基础上实现了信息的存储、处理、分析、查询、预测、预警以及成果输出的自动化。系统采用C/S结构实现信息共享与多人协作,在网络环境下可高效运行,为基坑监测提供了一个功能强大的信息平台。     

Dense 3D displacement vector fields for point cloud-based landslide monitoring

Landslides - We propose a novel fully automated deformation analysis pipeline capable of estimating real 3D displacement vectors from point cloud data. Different from the traditional methods that...