Spatio-temporal land cover changes in a semi-arid watershed: Central India

Land use/land cover change is a global phenomenon which reflects natural resources degradation and/or utilization. Remote sensing and GIS have been widely used to monitor such changes at watershed level. The present study evaluates the LU/LC change during 1989 - 2001 in a semi-arid watershed of central India. Geocoded satellite data of 1989 and 2001 on 1:50,000 scale, were visually interpreted to prepare thematic maps which were later digitized using ArcGIS softwares. The analysis shows that vast tracts of cultivated land have become uncultivated and at some places even converted to wasteland. However, the land under dense forest and open forest has decreased due to expansion of built-up land and other anthropogenic activities. Increase in area of uncultivated land, wasteland and decrease in cultivated land and open scrub is also supported by rainfall analysis, which shows a declining trend and a fall of 186.93 mm in average annual rainfall for 1986-2003 period. The change detection map prepared using land use/land cover of 1989 and 2001 as inputs shows that out of the total geographical area of the watershed, 25.78% of the watershed area has seen a change from one land use category to another, however rest 74.22% has remained unchanged.     

Land use and land cover change and implication to watershed degradation by using GIS and remote sensing in the Koga watershed,North Western Ethiopia

Information on use/land cover change is important for planners and decision makers to implement sustainable use and management of resources. This study was intended to assess the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Koga watershed. The MSS of 1973, TM images of 1986, 1995 and 2011 were used together with survey and demographic data to detect the drivers of land cover changes. The result revealed that a remarkable LULC change occurred in the study area for the past thirty eight years. The area of cultivated and settlement has increased by 7054.6 ha, while, grass and bush lands decreased by 4846.5 and 3376 ha respectively. Wetland also declined from 580.2 ha to 68.3 ha. The growing demand for cultivable land and fuel wood were the major causes to the deterioration of grass and bush lands. Hence, the appropriate land use policy should be employed to sustain available resource in the watershed.     

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of land use/cover change in fragile karst areas of southwest China since the early 1970s: a case study on the Maotiaohe watershed

Land use/cover change and its driving forces has been one of the most important fields in global environmental change research since the 1990s. Karst areas are distributed extensively on the Earth’s surface and are usually characterized by a fragile eco-environment. In southwest China, karst landforms are fully developed and their eco-environment is highly fragile. Over the past decades, irrational land use practice has caused a series of alarming eco-environmental issues including forest clearing, soil erosion, and karst rocky desertification. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study land use/cover change in this area and its driving forces in order to re-build the damaged eco-environment and achieve sustainable land use. In this paper, the authors conduct a case study on land use/cover change and its natural and human driving forces since the early 1970s in southwest China’s Maotiaohe watershed. The results indicate that the land use/cover pattern in the study area has undergone a very complex change, which is a result of combined action of both natural and anthropological factors. In the 1970s and 1980s, climate change and fast population increase played dominating roles in the change of arable land, shrub land, grassland, and rocky desertification land. Since the early 1990s, economic development has gradually taken the place of population change to become the overwhelming human factor to go along with climate change in driving the land use/cover change, particularly the change in arable land, construction land, and rocky desertification land.     

Refugees, land cover, and environmental change in the Senegal River Valley

This paper seeks to explore the complex relationships between land cover, environmental change and forced migration in the middle valley of the Senegal River, attempting both to identify the nature of environmental impacts of forced displacement with specific reference to land cover, and to examine the social, political and economic circumstances in which these are exacerbated or reduced. The study concludes that change in land cover caused by the presence of refugees is not a major cause for concern in this area, despite the vulnerability of the natural environment. Significant factors in reducing negative impacts include the dispersal of the refugee population, and cultural and social proximity of the refugee and local populations surveyed. At the same time, observed changes in land cover need to be treated with caution, given the often cyclical nature of environmental change, and the range of factors associated with it.     

坝上地区土地利用和覆被变化与土壤中养分动态的关联性

坝上地区位于北京北部、内蒙高原南部,为典型的农牧交错带,生态环境十分脆弱,对环境反映非常敏感,是研究环境变化最理想的地区。该区距京、津逾200km,又是京、津地区的水源地和生态屏障,区位十分重要。该区人少地多,土壤中很少施用化肥、农药,养分分析数据更趋于客观。     

Assessment of land use land cover change impact on hydrological regime of a basin

The sustainability of water resources mainly depends on planning and management of land use; a small change in it may affect water yield largely, as both are linked through relevant hydrological processes, explicitly. However, human activities, especially a significant increase in population, in-migration and accelerated socio-economic activities, are constantly modifying the land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. The impact of such changes in LULC on the hydrological regime of a basin is of widespread concern and a great challenge to the water resource engineers. While studying these impacts, the issue that prevails is the selection of a hydrological model that may be able to accommodate spatial and temporal dynamics of the basin with higher accuracy. Therefore, in the present study, the capabilities of variable infiltration capacity hydrological model to hydrologically simulate the basin under varying LULC scenarios have been investigated. For the present analysis, the Pennar River Basin, Andhra Pradesh, which falls under a water scarce region in India, has been chosen. The water balance components such as runoff potential, evapotranspiration (ET) and baseflow of Pennar Basin have been simulated under different LULC scenarios to study the impact of change on hydrological regime of a basin. Majorly, increase in built-up (13.94% approx.) and decrease in deciduous forest cover (2.44%) are the significant changes observed in the basin during the last three decades. It was found that the impact of LULC change on hydrology is balancing out at basin scale (considering the entire basin, while routing the runoff at the basin outlet). Therefore, an analysis on spatial variation in each of the water balance components considered in the study was done at grid scale. It was observed that the impact of LULC is considerable spatially at grid level, and the maximum increase of 265 mm (1985–2005) and the decrease of 48 mm (1985–1995) in runoff generation at grid were estimated. On the contrary, ET component showed the maximum increase of 400 and decrease of 570 mm under different LULC change scenario. Similarly, in the base flow parameter, an increase of 70 mm and the decrease of 100 mm were observed. It was noticed that the upper basin is showing an increasing trend in almost all hydrological components as compared to the lower basin. Based on this basin scale study, it was concluded that change in the land cover alters the hydrology; however, it needs to be studied at finer spatial scale rather than the entire basin as a whole. The information like the spatial variation in hydrological components may be very useful for local authority and decision-makers to plan mitigation strategies accordingly.     

Flooding and its relationship with land cover change,population growth,and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve-receiver operating char-acteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC＞90％)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the per-iod between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72％between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68％over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.     

Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China

Land use has changed in the Daqinghe watershed during 1956–2005, and it has influenced the flood peak and volume. In order to reveal the effects of land use change on flood characteristics in Daqinghe watershed, we selected 2 sub-watersheds and used remote-sensed land use data of 1980 and 1996 to analyze changes in land use and also selected several combinations of similar rainfall events and the corresponding flood events to show how changes in land use affect floods. The forest and urban area increased and other types decreased, and flood peaks and volumes tended to decrease under similar rainfall events. To quantify the extent of change in land use affecting floods, a hydrological model incorporating the land use was established. The model combines infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff generation mechanism in each type of land use, and the simulation results agreed well with the measured flood processes in the two selected watersheds. Several floods of different return intervals were selected to be modeled under the 1980 and 1996 land use conditions. The results show that both flood peak and volume decreased under the 1996 land use condition in comparison with the 1980 land use condition in the two watersheds. Most of the flood peaks decreased <5 %, but the volume decreased to a greater extent. This result can be helpful in modifying design flood.     

Impact of land use change on groundwater quality in a typical karst watershed of southwest China: a case study of the Xiaojiang watershed,Yunnan Province

The impact of land-use change on the quality of groundwater in the Xiaotjiang watershed, China was assessed for the period 1982–2004. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 monitoring points across the watershed, and were representative of the various changes, determined by remote sensing and geographical information systems. The results indicate that 610 km² (60% of the total watershed area) were subject to land-use change during the period. The most important changes were the conversion of 135 km² of forested land to cultivated land, and 211 km² of unused land to cultivated land. The main impact was ascribed to diffuse pollution from fertilizers applied to newly cultivated land, and from building development. Overall the groundwater pH value was significantly increased, as were the concentrations of ions , , , , and Cl⁻ in groundwater whilst the concentrations of Ca²⁺ and declined. More precisely, in the regions where forested land and unused land were converted into cultivated land, the pH value and the concentrations of Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ increased whilst the concentrations of Ca²⁺ and declined. However in the region where cultivated land was converted into construction land, the pH value and the concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ increased.

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Résumé  L’impact des changements de l’utilisation du territoire sur la qualité de l’eau souterraine dans le bassin versant de Xiaojiang, en Chine, a été évalué de 1982 à 2004. Des échantillons d’eau souterraine ont été récoltés à partir de 30 points d’observation éparpillés sur le bassin, représentant les divers changements déterminés par télédétection et système d’information géographique. Les résultats indiquent que 610 km² (soit 60% de la surface du bassin) ont été sujets à des modifications de l’utilisation du territoire sur cette période. Les changements les plus importants furent la conversion de 135 km² de forêt et 211 km² de terres inutilisées en terres cultivées. Le principal impact est attribué à la pollution diffuse des engrais utilisés en agriculture et pour les batiments. De manière générale le pH de l’eau souterraine a augmenté significativement, ainsi que les concentrations des ions , , , , et Cl⁻, tandis que les concentration en Ca²⁺ et ont diminué. Plus précisément dans les régions transformées en terres cultivées, la valeur du pH et les concentrations en Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ ont augmenté tandis que les concentrations en Ca²⁺ et ont diminué. Toutefois dans les régions cultivées converties en zones de construction, le pH et les concentrations en Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ ont augmenté.

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Resumen  El impacto del cambio en uso de la tierra en la calidad del agua en la cuenca Xiaojiang, China fue evaluado para el periodo 1982–2004. Muestras de agua subterránea fueron tomadas de 30 puntos de monitoreo a través de la cuenca, y fueron representativas de los múltiples cambios, determinados por sensores remotos y sistemas de información geográfica. Los resultados indican que 610 km² (60% del área total de la cuenca) estaban sujetos a cambios de uso de la tierra durante el periodo estudiado. Los cambios más importantes fueron la conversión de 135 km² de bosques a tierra cultivada, y 211 km² de tierra sin uso (ociosa) a tierra cultivada. El impacto principal fue causado por contaminación difusa de fertilizantes aplicados a la tierra recientemente cultivada, y a desarrollo de construcciones. En general el pH en agua subterránea creció significantemente, al igual que las concentraciones de los iones , , , , y Cl⁻ en agua subterránea mientras que las concentraciones de Ca²⁺ y decrecieron. Mas precisamente, en las regiones donde bosque y tierra ociosa fueron convertidas en tierra cultivada, el valor de pH y las concentraciones de Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ crecieron mientras las concentraciones de Ca²⁺ y decrecieron. Sin embargo en la región donde tierra cultivada fue convertida en construcciones, el valor de pH y las concentraciones de Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ crecieron.

     

Stable-isotope and solute-chemistry approaches to flow characterization in a forested tropical watershed,Luquillo Mountains,Puerto Rico

The prospect of changing climate has led to uncertainty about the resilience of forested mountain watersheds in the tropics. In watersheds where frequent, high rainfall provides ample runoff, we often lack understanding of how the system will respond under conditions of decreased rainfall or drought. Factors that govern water supply, such as recharge rates and groundwater storage capacity, may be poorly quantified. This paper describes 8-year data sets of water stable isotope composition (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) of precipitation (4 sites) and a stream (1 site), and four contemporaneous stream sample sets of solute chemistry and isotopes, used to investigate watershed response to precipitation inputs in the 1780-ha Río Mameyes basin in the Luquillo Mountains of northeastern Puerto Rico. Extreme δ²H and δ¹⁸O values from low-pressure storm systems and the deuterium excess (d-excess) were useful tracers of watershed response in this tropical system. A hydrograph separation experiment performed in June 2011 yielded different but complementary information from stable isotope and solute chemistry data. The hydrograph separation results indicated that 36% of the storm rain that reached the soil surface left the watershed in a very short time as runoff. Weathering-derived solutes indicated near-stream groundwater was displaced into the stream at the beginning of the event, followed by significant dilution. The more biologically active solutes exhibited a net flushing behavior. The d-excess analysis suggested that streamflow typically has a recent rainfall component (∼25%) with transit time less than the sampling resolution of 7 days, and a more well-mixed groundwater component (∼75%). The contemporaneous stream sample sets showed an overall increase in dissolved solute concentrations with decreasing elevation that may be related to groundwater inputs, different geology, and slope position. A considerable amount of water from rain events runs off as quickflow and bypasses subsurface watershed flowpaths, and better understanding of shallow hillslope and deeper groundwater processes in the watershed will require sub-weekly data and detailed transit time modeling. A combined isotopic and solute chemistry approach can guide further studies to a more comprehensive model of the hydrology, and inform decisions for managing water supply with future changes in climate and land use.     

Assessing land use and land cover change in the Wassa West District of Ghana using remote sensing

Vast tracts of forests are lost globally every year especially in the developing countries of the tropics due to various human activities such as lumbering, farming, bush fires, surface mining and urbanization. The rainforest in Ghana has experienced rapid depletion since the 1980s. The impact of deforestation is widespread, affecting the livelihoods of local people and disrupting the tropical ecosystem. There is a serious concern in the study area about climatic change, soil erosion, siltation of rivers and loss in biodiversity which have an adverse impact on traditional medicinal plants of the local people. The study examined the extent of land cover change through image differencing of Landsat TM 1986 and 2002. The image classification indicated that, vegetative cover from 1986 to 2002 has been reducing whiles land use activities have been increasing. Closed canopy, open canopy and plantation have significantly diminished and land use activities especially built ups, farms, mining and openfields are more than doubled. The driving forces for the change in land cover are population growth, lumbering, socio-economic and cultural practices of the people. Lumbering and mining have been some of the major causes of the changing landscape in primary forest. Also the reliance on wood for domestic energy and the need to increase food productivity to feed growing population have also contributed greatly to the rapid depletion of the vegetative cover.     

Hydrologic equilibrium status of a disturbed Eastern North Carolina watershed

Evaluation of the impacts of artificial drainage systems on wetlands requires an assessment of the hydrologic equilibrium status of the surface hydrologic system. Hydrologic equilibrium is characterised by a high correlation between surplus moisture (as calculated by Thornthwaite's methodology) and stream discharge. A qualitative stability analysis shows that deterioration of artificial drainage channels is the process allowing the surface hydrologic system to adjust to the disturbances. The model is tested by examining the correlation between surplus and discharge for a small watershed altered by forestry drainage which is periodically rehabilitated. With hydrologic equilibeium arbitrarily defined as a surplus-discharge correlation coefficient 0.8, it is shown that the original, largely undisturbed watershed was in hydrologic equilibrium. Disequilibrium was induced by artificial drainage-ways, with a return to equilibrium over time. Subsequent renovations of ditches and canals were associated with a recurrence of disequilibrium. The surface hydrologic system is metastable, and cannot be expected to return to previously-existing states following a disturbance. Consistently maintained artificial drainage system appears to preclude any return to any type of hydrologic equilibrium.     

Assessing debris-flow hazard in a watershed in Taiwan

This paper presents the results of a pilot study for assessing debris-flow hazards using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The watershed of the Chen-Yu-Lan River is investigated in this pilot study. Factors that are believed to be critical to the occurrence of debris flow are identified and considered in the assessment of debris-flow hazards. Using the spatial analysis feature of GIS, the impact of these factors, expressed in terms of debris-flow hazard (DH) index, is calculated. By taking a simple summation of all DH indexes according to each factor, the overall debris-flow hazard at a particular watershed may be assessed. The applicability of the proposed approach for analyzing the watershed of the Chen-Yu-Lan River has been confirmed with the field observations in a recent typhoon event.     

Mapping land cover change of the Luvuvhu catchment, South Africa for environmental modelling

Considerable land cover changes have occurred in the Luvuvhu catchment in northeastern South Africa in the past two decades. These changes are associated with human population growth and may be contributing to observed reductions in winter river baseflows and increased episodes of river drying within Kruger National Park. Six-class land cover maps of the catchment were created from 1978 (MSS) and 2005 (TM) Landsat imagery using an iterative technique. Results indicate a 1,000 km² (12%) increase in Bare Ground between 1978 and 2005, with a concomitant decrease in shrubland and indigenous forest cover. Overall classification accuracy in the 2005 image was 80%. Classification was most accurate for Water and Pine classes (100 and 92%) and least accurate for Indigenous Forest (46%), primarily due to misclassification as Shrubland. These maps are suitable for land cover change and landscape modeling analyses, and can serve as baseline data for further research.     

Effects of land use change on landscape pattern of the Manas River watershed in Xinjiang, China

The mechanism of interaction between land use change and landscape pattern is pivotal in research concerning global environmental change. Quantitative evaluation of land use change that has resulted from excessive land development and its impact on landscape pattern are important for sustainable utilization of local land resources. The study area was the Manas River watershed, a typical watershed in an arid area. The present study evaluated the influence of long-term land use change on the landscape pattern; the findings are valuable for economic development and environmental protection. The processes for land use change and changes in landscape pattern were reconstructed and analyzed for data in topographic maps dated 1962 and in remote sensing images taken in 1976, 1989, 1999 and 2008 using mathematical models and landscape metrics. The results indicate significant changes in land use over the past 50 years, with increases in the areas of cultivated land and construction land, and a significant decrease in unused land and woodland areas; grassland and water resources first increased and then tended to decrease over this time. The comprehensive index of land use change is 0.55, indicating an unbalanced, one-way transition in the study area. Landscape fragmentation and diversity increased and landscape dominance decreased; in other words, differences between landscapes decreased. The changes resulted in a significant tendency toward diversity and fragmentation of the landscape. Therefore, large-scale intensive agricultural development can reduce the negative influence of land use change on the landscape pattern.     

The significance of large-scale land cover change on the Australian palaeomonsoon

We use the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System at a 50 km spatial resolution to explore the impact of large-scale vegetation changes on the Australian monsoon. We simulate multiple Januaries using vegetation cover representative of the present day, the last interglacial (LIG) (125,000 BP) and the last glacial maximum (20,000 BP), interpreted from palaeoecological data, to determine whether changes in vegetation can affect the Australian monsoon. We find that the large-scale replacement of current vegetation, to vegetation representing the LIG and the last glacial maximum has a substantial impact on the simulated latent heat flux and surface air temperature. Precipitation is affected, but only by approximately 5%. We show that the impact of vegetation change on precipitation is due to changes in the surface roughness length that affects the surface frictional drag, wind velocities and moisture convergence. The impact of large-scale vegetation changes on all quantities is restricted to the regions of land cover change. The perturbation induced by vegetation change interacts with the monsoon system by changing the local intensity of the atmospheric circulation causing relatively small intensification/moderation of the wind velocities. There is little evidence that the vegetation change induces a change in the large-scale structure of the meteorological system and there is no evidence that the vegetation changes induce a southward extension of the monsoon. We therefore find no evidence to support a hypothesis that vegetation feedbacks explain observed changes in lake levels in the Australian arid interior. We highlight some strengths and weaknesses of our approach and emphasise that the limitations implicit in our analytical methods means we cannot conclusively demonstrate that biospheric feedbacks can be ignored. Substantial additional work is therefore required to finally assess the role of biospheric feedbacks on the Australian palaeomonsoon.     

Integration of geospatial technologies with RUSLE for analysis of land use/cover change impact on soil erosion: case study in Rib watershed,north-western highland Ethiopia

In recent times, soil erosion interlocked with land use and land cover (LULC) changes has become one of the most important environmental issues in developing countries. Evaluation of this complex interaction between LULC change and soil erosion is indispensable in land use planning and conservation works. This paper analysed the impact of LULC change on soil erosion in the north-western highland Ethiopia over the period 1986–2016. Rib watershed, the area with dynamic LULC change and severe soil erosion problem, was selected as a case study site. Integrated approach that combined geospatial technologies with revised universal soil loss equation model was utilized to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of soil loss over the study period. Pixel-based overlay of soil erosion intensity maps with LULC maps was carried out to understand the change in soil loss due to LULC change. Results showed that the annual soil loss in the study area varied from 0 to 236.5 t ha^?1 year^?1 (tons per hectare per year) in 1986 and 0–807 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016. The average annual soil loss for the entire watershed was estimated about 40 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 1986 comparing with 68 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016, a formidable increase. Soil erosion potential that was estimated to exceed the average soil loss tolerance level increased from 34.5% in 1986 to 66.8% in 2016. Expansion of agricultural land at the expense of grassland and shrubland was the most detrimental factor for severe soil erosion in the watershed. The most noticeable change in soil erosion intensity was observed from cropland with mean annual soil loss amount increased to 41.38 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016 from 26.60 in 1986. Moreover, the most successive erosion problems were detected in eastern, south-eastern and northern parts of the watershed. Therefore, the results of this study can help identify the soil erosion hot spots and conservation priority areas at local and regional levels.     

Hypsometric analysis and watershed management of Diyung watershed in north eastern India

The Diyung river descends in Nagaon district of Assam. After its confluence with main channel Kopili it causes enormous losses to life and property due to floods. Appropriate watershed treatment measures are, therefore, required for moderating the flood damage. In the present study landscape information viz., the hypsometric integral has been analysed. The Diyung watershed has been subdivided into 23 sub-watersheds for hypsometric analysis. The hypsometric integral for the entire Diyung watershed ranged from 0.14 to 0.56. According to the present study there are two stages of geologic/geomorphologic development, namely equilibrium stage and monadnock stage. The hypsometric integral indicates that surface runoff is the dominant process. Although static, the topographic characteristics indicate response of watershed to various natural phenomenon and dominant processes such as runoff and erosion. Based on the intensity of the processes sub-watershed can be prioritized for taking up appropriate conservation measures. The study also highlights the use of hypsometric integral for prioritizing watershed for planning engineering measures to mitigate the impact.     

Monitoring land use/land cover change using multi-temporal Landsat satellite images in an arid environment: a case study of El-Arish,Egypt

Environment in arid conditions is dynamic and needs more investigation to understand the complexity of change. This spatiotemporal study will help to assess and monitor the land use and land cover change in the arid region of El-Arish area, where the climate and human activities are the major threats to rural development. In the past 11 years, dramatic changes of environment have been recorded in case studies. The post-classification comparison method was used to observe the changes using multi-temporal satellite images which were captured in the years 1999, 2001, 2005, and 2010. The overall accuracy of the produced thematic images was assessed regarding to the quantity and allocation disagreements. Five classes were defined in this investigation: bare soil, vegetation, urban, sand dunes, and fertile soil. From the year 1999 to 2010, fertile soil was increased by 13 %. Bare soil class occupied more than 50 % of land in the case study during for over a decade. From year 1999 to 2010, vegetation cover witnessed a dramatic increase. Soil and water management are the keys of land development and positive land use and land cover dynamics. Changing agricultural policies of using the available water resources are needed in the case study to prevent severe food shortage in the future.