Spatial organization of decadal and bidecadal rainfall fluctuations in southern North America and southern South America

The spatial organization of decadal and bidecadal components (fluctuations) of annual rainfall is identified in this research for two regions: (1) southern South America, and (2) southern North America (conterminous USA, southeastern Canada and northern and central Mexico). Findings indicate that these decadal and bidecadal components have highly coherent wave-like spatial organization. Two types of organization of decadal and bidecadal components of annual rainfall were identified: a train of propagating fluctuations and quasi-standing fluctuations. For decadal components, such patterns alternate in time. A widespread change in the spatial organization of decadal component of annual rainfall took place simultaneously in both continents in 1932. The bidecadal component is organized as standing fluctuations in southern North America and as travelling fluctuations in southern South America, The spatial pattern of decadal fluctuations of annual rainfall has 12- and 13-year cycles, and the spatial pattern of bidecadal fluctuations has predominantly 21- and 22-year cycles.     

Permafrost hydrology in North America 1

Abstract

This paper reviews hydrologic processes in the permafrost regions of northern North America. Much work has recently been done at specific experimental plots to parallel the progress in laboratory investigations, improving our understanding of the heat and water fluxes in thawed and frozen grounds, infiltration in frozen soils, evaporation in a cold environment, interaction between snow and its frozen substrate, and the dynamics of storage in the active layer. Field research on permafrost slopes and in northern research basins adds to our knowledge of permafrost groundwater hydrology, runoff generating processes, river freeze‐up and breakup processes and allows more precise definition of basin water balance. Sufficient hydrometric data are now available to analyse the streamflow characteristics in an area with permafrost, and more work should be done along this line. It is urged that process studies be continued to gain a better understanding of the effect of permafrost upon the hydrologic cycle. Further research is needed to predict the impacts of human activities on the movement and redistribution of water.     

Extreme rainfalls in SE South America

Heavy rainfall trends in a region of south-eastern South America during 1959–2002 were discussed using daily data of 52 meteorological stations of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Changes in intensity and frequency were both studied with different statistical tests and approaches to check the significance of trends of single and regional aggregated rainfall series. There were predominant positive trends in the annual maximum rainfalls, as well as a remarkable increment in the frequency of heavy rainfalls over thresholds ranging from 50 to 150 mm. However, significant positive trends were not shown in the series of annual maximums and shown only in 15% to 30% of the series of frequencies over thresholds. This lack of significance is due to the high variability of heavy rainfalls in space and time, which makes difficult their capture by single rain gauges. Thus, when the assessment of the heavy rainfall indicators of intensity and frequency were conducted at the regional and sub-regional level, it showed significant trends, both in intensity and frequency over thresholds, with a clearer signal in central and eastern Argentina between 30° and 40° S.     

Regional droughts in southern South America

From a regional inventory of monthly droughts, which was evaluated in six regions of southern South America, the seasonal occurrence of the phenomenon and its persistence together with the duration of monthly and annual sequences, extreme events, and other statistical estimates of the proposed index have been studied. In a primary analysis, it is possible to observe that regions present different behaviors regarding the duration of dry sequences, with more persistence in the Argentinean continental region. Temporal behaviors of the annual indexes have also been analyzed, in the attempt to determine any aspects of the impact of global warming. Through this analysis, the presence of long favorable tendencies regarding precipitations or the inverse of droughts occurrence are confirmed for the eastern Andes Mountains in Argentina (ARG) with its five sub-regions (Northwest Argentina-NWA, Northeast Argentina-NEA, Humid Pampa-HP, West-Centre Provinces-WC and Patagonia-PAT, and the inverse over the central region of Chile (CHI). Other climatic great-scale changes are interdecadales variations and variances explained according to ENSO.     

Climate change predictions for South America

Some of the characteristics of predicted climate changes for South America are analysed for the years 2010 and 2050. These predictions are based on the results of three-dimensional Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results differ between models (GISS, NCAR-CCMs and GFDL), particularly when applied to regional and sub-regional scales and to time scales of less than one-year intervals. It is concluded that these differences are due to the particular structure of each model as well as to the lack of sufficient basic data from the South American sub-continent. The dynamics of vegetation cover play an important role in future water balance changes. The changes in surface temperatures predicted by the GISS model are discussed in relation to changes in the climatic-dynamic base stemming from anthropogenic changes in the vegetation cover.     

北美洲冬季冷空气对南美洲夏季降水异常影响的研究

利用1981—2017年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和ECMWF再分析资料,研究了北美洲冬季高纬度冷空气对南美洲夏季降水异常的影响。结果表明,北美洲冬季高纬度冷空气通过影响向南越赤道气流的强弱,影响南美洲热带辐合带（intertropical convergence zone, ITCZ）位置和强度的变化,进一步引起南美洲天气的变化。北美洲冬季冷空气的南下过程能够引起80°～70°W的向南越赤道气流明显加强,导致2011年南美洲热带辐合带的位置异常偏南,强度异常偏强,是造成降水异常偏多的重要成因。通过相关分析发现北美洲冬季冷空气对南美洲ITCZ位置的影响更明显。     

Rainfall distribution and regime in Central America

Summary Seasonal variations of the atmospheric circulation on the western flanks of the North Atlantic Anticyclone imply upward motion over the Caribbean Sea during the summer half-year, with a secondary minimum in July and August, while ascending motion decreases from November onward, and a strong subsidence develops towards the end of the winter half-year. This is associated with variations in the persistence of the trade inversion and the development of the Easterly Waves.The precipitation regime over the Caribbean Sea follows closely the seasonal variations in the field of large-scale vertical motion. A large variety in rainfall distribution and regime is found, on the other hand, on the Central American Isthmus. In qualitative terms, this is controlled by the orientation of mountain ranges and the configuration of coast lines relative to the seasonal flow patterns, that is orographic and stress-differential induced divergence and convergence effects. Due to the latitudinal variation of the Coriolis parameter, stress-differential induced divergence effects should be particularly pronounced in the tropics. The causes for the regional variations in the beginning of the rainy season and the secondary rainfall minimum in midsummer are discussed particularly.An altitudinal belt of maximum rainfall below the 1,000 m level is found in large parts of the Central American mountains. Recent climatic fluctuations display regional differences which appear to be greatly due to orographic and stressdifferential induced divergence effects.

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Zusammenfassung Jahreszeitliche Zirkulationsschwankungen auf der Westflanke der Nordatlantischen Hochdruckzelle sind verbunden mit aufsteigender Bewegung über dem Karibischen Meer während des Sommerhalbjahrs, mit einem sekundären Minimum im Hochsommer; von November an wird die Aufwärtsbewegung geringer, und ein starkes Absinken entwickelt sich gegen Ende des Winterhalbjahres. Änderungen der großräumigen Vertikalbewegung gehen mit Schwankungen in der Intensität der Passatinversion und der Ausbildung der Easterly Waves einher.Das Niederschlagsregime über dem Karibischen Meer folgt im wesentlichen den jahreszeitlichen Schwankungen der großräumigen Vertikalbewegung. Starke Gegensätze in Niederschlagsverteilung und-regime prägen sich andererseits auf der mittelamerikanischen Landbrücke aus. Sie sind im wesentlichen bestimmt durch Orientierung der Gebirge und des Küstenverlaufes in bezug zum jahreszeitlich veränderlichen Strömungsfeld. Orographische Effekte und Schubspannungs-unterschiede zwischen Land und Meer haben eine große Bedeutung für horizontale Strömungsdivergenzen in der Reibungsschicht. Wegen der Breitenabhängigkeit des Coriolis-Parameters sollten sich diese Effekte besonders stark in den Tropen auswirken. Die Ursachen für die ausgeprägten regionalen Unterschiede im Beginn der Regenzeit sowie das sekundäre Niederschlagsminimum im Hochsommer werden besonders diskutiert.In weiten Teilen der mittelamerikanischen Gebirge kann eine Höhenstufe maximalen Niederschlags unterhalb des 1000 m-Niveaus festgestellt werden. Klimaschwankungen der letzten Jahrzehnte zeigen regionale Unterschiede, die vor allem durch orographische Effekte und Schubspannungsunterschiede bedingt zu sein scheinen.

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Resumen Variaciones estacionales de la circulación atmosférica al lado occidental del Anticiclón del Atlántico del Norte están relacionados con el campo del movimiento vertical sobre el Mar Caribe. Hay un movimiento ascendente durante la mitad vernal del año, mostrando cierta disminución en los meses de Julio y Agosto. Una subsidencia pronunciada, por otra parte, suele desarrollarse hacia el final de la mitad invernal del año. Los cambios estacionales en el campo del movimiento vertical van junto con variaciones en la intensidad de la inversion de alísios y de las Ondas del Este.El régimen de lluvias sobre el Mar Caribe está conforme con las variaciones estacionales en el campo del movimiento vertical. En el Istmo Centroamericano, por otra parte, hay grandes contrastes en la distribucion regional y el régimen de lluvias, las cuales se deben a la orientación de las cordilleras y de las costas con respecto a los flujos atmosféricos dominantes. Diferencias en las condiciones aerodinámicas entre la superficie del mar y superficies terrestres, por otra parte, causan efectos de divergencia o convergencia en la faja costera. Debido a la variación latitudinal del parametro de Coriolis, dichos efectos deberían de ser particularmente importantes en los trópicos. Se discutan especialmente las causas para las differencias regionales que existen respecto al comienzo de la estación lluviosa.En gran parte de las montanas de Centro America hay un piso con lluvias máximas, situado debajo de 1,000 m, con una disminución pronunciada monte arriba. Las fluctuaciones climáticas de los ultimos decénios demuestran un carácter distinto en las varias partes del Istmo, lo que parece ser debido a efectos regionales de divergencia y convergencia.

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Résumé Les variations saisonnières de la circulation atmosphérique sur le flanc ouest de l'anticyclone situé sur l'Atlantique septentrional impliquent un mouvement ascendant de l'air au-dessus de la Mer des Caraïbes durant le semestre d'été. Ce mouvement est interrompu par un minimum secondaire en juillet et août. La durée de ces mouvements ascendants diminue à partir du mois de novembre et un fort courant subsident s'y développe vers la fin du semestre d'hiver. Ces mouvements sont associés aux variations de l'inversion des alizés et à l'évolution de l'ondulation de l'est.Le régime des précipitations de la Mer des Caraïbes suit étroitement les variations saisonnières du champ des mouvements verticaux à grande échelle. On recontre par contre une grande diversité dans les régimes et la distribution des précipitations en Amérique Centrale. Cette constatation se contrôle qualitativement par l'orientation des chaînes de montagne et la configuration des côtes par rapport aux modèles d'écoulement saisonnier. C'est à dire que cette diversité est due à des effets de divergence et de convergence provenant des conditions orographiques et des conditions de frottement différencié entre la terre et la mer. Du fait de la variation du paramètre de Coriolis avec la latitude, les effets de divergence provoquée par le dit frottement différencié doivent être spécialement prononcés sous les tropiques. On discute ici en particulier les causes des variations régionales du début de la saison des pluies et du minimum secondaire des précipitations au milieu de l'été.Une ceinture du maximum des précipitations se retrouve au-dessous de 1000 m d'altitude dans la plus grande partie des montagnes de l'Amérique Centrale. Des fluctuations climatiques récentes présentent des différences régionales qui semblent dues principalement à des effets orographiques et à la divergence produite par le frottement différencié de l'air sur la terre et la mer.

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With 16 Figures

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A financial support by the University of Wisconsin Research Committee during the writing stage of this work is gratefully acknowledged.     

Upper-level cut-off lows in southern South America

Summary This paper presents a statistical study of the spatial and seasonal distribution and duration of cut-off low systems over the southern South American region based on the NCEP- NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1979–1988. Cut-off lows were first objectively determined as minimum geopotential values at the 250 hPa level and then subjectively imposing a cut-off circulation and a cold core. A total of 171 cut-off low events were detected, being more frequent in austral autumn followed by winter, spring and summer. There is a preferential region of occurrence in spring and autumn located between 68°–80° W and 30°–45° S. The Pacific area showed the greatest frequency of occurrence followed by the Atlantic and the continental areas. Most of the cut-off lows last 2 or 3 days (around 90% of the cases) though there is a tendency of the continental events to be longer. The cut-off low event developed upwind the Andes on 22–28 September 1986 was selected as a case study. Low-level cold air advection was the main forcing of the deepening of the upper level low system.     

Extreme wave climate changes in Central-South America

The spatial and temporal variability of extreme wave climate along the Central-South American continent is analyzed. The study evaluates changes in the intensity of extreme significant wave height (SWH) throughout the year over the 1980–2008 period, using a calibrated long-term wave reanalysis database forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. A non-stationary extreme value model, based on monthly maxima with a new approach for long-term trends, has been applied. Results show a common positive trend in the Pacific basin throughout all seasons and a significant decreasing trend pattern in the area of Surinam and north of Brazil, on the Atlantic border (up to ?1.5 cm/year in March–April–May). A higher increase of the extreme wave heights is found in the austral summer (December–January–February) at Tierra de Fuego and the Falkland Islands, reaching 6.5 cm/year (which means 1.82 m for the 28 years studied). Furthermore, the complete reanalysis period (1948–2008) is analyzed in order to compare results with the assimilation data period (1980–2008), resulting in some discrepancies, especially in the Atlantic basin.     

Downscaling extreme month-long anomalies in southern South America

We investigate the performance of one stretched-grid atmospheric global model, five different regional climate models and a statistical downscaling technique in simulating 3 months (January 1971, November 1986, July 1996) characterized by anomalous climate conditions in the southern La Plata Basin. Models were driven by reanalysis (ERA-40). The analysis has emphasized on the simulation of the precipitation over land and has provided a quantification of the biases of and scatter between the different regional simulations. Most but not all dynamical models underpredict precipitation amounts in south eastern South America during the three periods. Results suggest that models have regime dependence, performing better for some conditions than others. The models’ ensemble and the statistical technique succeed in reproducing the overall observed frequency of daily precipitation for all periods. But most models tend to underestimate the frequency of dry days and overestimate the amount of light rainfall days. The number of events with strong or heavy precipitation tends to be under simulated by the models.     

Lake levels and climatic change in eastern North America

Changes in lake levels during the last 12000 years in eastern North America show spatially coherent patterns, implying climatic control. Conditions were generally wetter than today during the late glacial, becoming more arid towards 6000 years BP when most lakes were low. Lakes rose after 6000 years BP, reaching modern levels by about 3000 years BP. These palaeohydrological changes broadly agree with simulated changes in moisture balance derived from experiments with the NCAR Community Climate Model (Kutzbach and Guetter 1986) with changing orbital parameters and lower boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature and ice extent). However, the model simulates maximum aridity at 9000 years BP. Data and model show broadly similar spatial patterns, implying that the lake-level changes can be explained by the changing boundary conditions and their effects on atmospheric circulation. At 12000 years BP most lakes were high because of increased precipitation along the jet-stream storm-track south of the ice sheet. By 9000 years BP, with the much reduced ice sheet, many lakes along the eastern seaboard and in the southeast were lower than present because of greater evaporation due to high summer insolation. The warming of the continental interior generated an enhanced monsoon low in the southwest, causing increased southerly flow which helped to maintain higher lakes in the Midwest. Dry conditions spread eastwards across the Midwest between 9000 and 6000 years BP. This effect is not shown by the model, which continues to bring monsoonal precipitation into the Midwest while simulating enhanced westerly flow and drier conditions further to the west. Such displacements of circulation features are unimportant at the continental scale, but could be significant if general circulation models are used for regionalscale predictions of changes in the moisture balance.     

Extensive glaciers in northwest North America during Medieval time

The Medieval Warm Period is an interval of purportedly warm climate during the early part of the past millennium. The duration, areal extent, and even existence of the Medieval Warm Period have been debated; in some areas the climate of this interval appears to have been affected more by changes in precipitation than in temperature. Here, we provide new evidence showing that several glaciers in western North America advanced during Medieval time and that some glaciers achieved extents similar to those at the peak of the Little Ice Age, many hundred years later. The advances cannot be reconciled with a climate similar to that of the twentieth century, which has been argued to be an analog, and likely were the result of increased winter precipitation due to prolonged La Niña-like conditions that, in turn, may be linked to elevated solar activity. Changes in solar output may initiate a response in the tropical Pacific that directly impacts the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and associated North Pacific teleconnections.     

Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South America

This paper assesses the uncertainties involved in the projections of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over South America in the twenty-first century. Climate simulations generated by 24 general circulation models are weighted according to the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) approach. The results show that the REA mean temperature change is slightly smaller over South America compared to the simple ensemble mean. Higher reliability in the temperature projections is found over the La Plata basin, and a larger uncertainty range is located in the Amazon. A temperature increase exceeding 2 °C is found to have a very likely (>90 %) probability of occurrence for the entire South American continent in all seasons, and a more likely than not (>50 %) probability of exceeding 4 °C by the end of this century is found over northwest South America, the Amazon Basin, and Northeast Brazil. For precipitation, the projected changes have the same magnitude as the uncertainty range and are comparable to natural variability.     

The question of climatic stability in America before 1900

Belief that regional climates had significantly changed in historic times, possibly as a result of human activities, is firmly established in the Western tradition. Europe itself was believed to have undergone such changes, especially a warming trend, since ancient times. It was also widely believed that the European colonization of North America would duplicate many of the changes that had occurred in Europe, including the climatic changes that were supposed to have taken place. In the New World, it was at first believed that climatic change was occurring, as a result of human settlement and land use changes, but these views gave way to the idea of climatic stability. The first extensive compilations of reliable North American precipitation and temperature data in the latter part of the nineteenth century seemed to support the notion of stable climates. Ideas relating to macroclimatic change and stability that were entertained in America before 1900, mainly between 1770 and 1870, are examined.     

美国小麦产量业务预报方法研究

利用综合诊断指标,研究了预测年美国小麦生长季逐日平均气温和降水量与历史上任意一年对应气象要素的关系。根据小麦产量历史丰歉气象影响指数,建立了基于地面气象要素的美国小麦产量预报模型;研究分析了西太平洋月平均海温、北半球500hPa平均高度场环流资料与美国小麦产量的关系,利用主要影响因子,分别建立了基于海温、环流资料的美国小麦产量预报模型。根据各预报模型的稳定性,利用加权方法建立了美国小麦产量业务预报集合模型。1995～2004年预报检验和2005～2006年预报试验结果表明：集合模型的预报准确率基本都在92％以上,能够满足业务服务的需要。