Climate-induced changes in surface runoff on the North-Eurasian plains during the late glacial and Holocene

Abandoned rivers (large paleochannels and meanders) are common on river floodplains and low terraces on the East European and West Siberian plains. They are 10–15 times greater in size than the present-day river channels. The large paleochannels are dated back to 11–15 thousand radiocarbon years B.P. (the Late Glacial period). Based on the hydraulic and morphometric relationships for present-day rivers and the method of paleogeographic analogs, the surface runoff during the Late Glacial period was quantitatively reconstructed by the morphometric parameters of large paleochannels. The reconstructed surface runoff exceeded the present values by 1.4 times on the northern mega-slope of the East European Plain (the Northern Dvina, Mezen, and Pechora river basins), by 2.3 times on its southern mega-slope (the Volga, Don, and Dnepr basins), and twofold in West Siberia (the Ob basin). The large surface runoff volumes can be explained by the landscape and climate conditions, including the high coefficients of runoff (due to the permafrost), the increased proportion (and, conceivably, the amount) of snowfall, and, hence, the respective increased intensity of spring floods. The transformation of large Late-Glacial paleorivers due to climate warming at the beginning of the Holocene is a likely scenario of the surface runoff development within the present-day permafrost zone at the ongoing human-induced climate warming. A general decrease in surface runoff and its more uniform intra-annual distribution would result in the reduced size of rivers in the middle Siberia, Yakutia, and northeastern Russia.     

River runoff decrease in North-Eurasian plains during the Holocene optimum

Three stages were identified in the development of meandering rivers and the formation of floodplains with natural levees in Northern Eurasia: the development of rivers with size larger than that of the modern ones; the development of rivers smaller than the modern ones; and the development of rivers of the present-day morphodynamic type. Small oxbows of the second stage are widespread in the floodplains of lowland rivers in Northern Eurasia. The largest amount of floodplain segments with such oxbows can be seen in the forest zone, mostly in the coniferous forests of northeastern European Russia. The available radiocarbon datings show that river channel were significantly decreasing in size and the steepness of meanders was increasing during the Atlantic period of the Holocene. Data on changes in the size of river channels were used to evaluate the ratios between paleo- and modern discharges and to construct a map of difference between runoff depths in the Holocene optimum and in the present and assess changes in water runoff volume. The discharges in the basins of the Vyatka and middle Irtysh accounted for as little as 40–50% of their current values. North, east, and west from those basins, the ratio of ancient and present-day discharges increases. During the Holocene optimum, water runoff from the northern megaslope of the East European Plain was ∼180 km³/year, which is 30% less than the present runoff from the same drainage area. The annual runoff in Volga basin was ∼134 km³, which is almost half as large as the present value. The runoff in Don and Dnieper basins during the Holocene optimum was 40% less, and that in the Ob and Irtysh basin was 30% less than the present one. If we accept the hypothesis that the Holocene optimum was a climate analogue of global anthropogenic warming of the mid-XXI century, the obtained estimates of the state of water resources in Northern Eurasia acquire great prognostic importance.     

Effect of Present-Day Climate Changes and Agricultural Activities on Spring Overland Runoff in Forest-Steppe and Steppe Regions of the Russian Plain

Space and time analysis of the formation of spring overland runoff in forest-steppe and steppe regions of the Russian Plain has been carried out. It has been shown that, in addition to zonal climate conditions, its distribution over the area is largely determined by the agricultural load on river catchment areas, primarily, the structure of agricultural lands—the proportions of areas under winter tillage and consolidated tillage. The character of overland runoff response to present-day climate changes and agricultural activity has been identified, and quantitative estimates have been given to the manifold hydrological role of these factors.     

Long-term variations in river and sea factors responsible for the hydrological regime and morphological structure of the Thames River mouth area

General geographic features of the Thames River, its basin, and mouth area, consisting of the tidal mouth reach of the river, a large estuary, and an open nearshore zone of the river mouth (the North Sea coastal zone) are discussed. The peculiarities of river and sea hydrological factors responsible for the regime of the Thames River mouth area are described in detail. Characteristics of the river water runoff were specified and supplemented by the data on the river inundations in the area of London. Particular emphasis was placed on variations in the mean sea level in the area of the Thames River mouth as well as on specific features of tides and storm surges in the area of the sea inlet into the estuary. Main regularities in the estuary evolution during Holocene and present-day morphological processes in the Thames River mouth area were revealed.     

The hydrological regime of large river basins in Northern Eurasia in the XX–XXI centuries

The ability of present-day climate models to reproduce the mean annual regime of river runoff and its within-year distribution is evaluated for major Eurasian basins, including the basins of the Volga and Amur and the major Siberian rivers: the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena. Estimates are made for possible variations in seasonal runoff and characteristics of daily precipitation (the amount, rate, and probability) in drainage areas for the late XXI century. The analysis involved the use of the results of calculations by climatic general circulation models carried out under international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.     

Present-Day Estimates of the Hydrological Conditions for the Formation of Biological Production in the Sea of Azov

The main feature of the present-day hydrological conditions governing the formation of biological production in the Sea of Azov is shown to be the appreciable freshening of seawater, which is due, first of all, to climate changes. It is established that the freshening of seawater can benefit most for the reproduction of fish resources in the Sea of Azov only if the river runoff withdrawals are reduced step by step down to 5 km³/year (14% of the norm), the annual runoff is maintained at 35–36 km³, and the spring runoff is restored to 18.5 km³.     

Effect of regional climate variations and economic activity on changes in the hydrological regime of watersheds and small-river runoff

Regularities of long-term within-year and between-zone variations in climate characteristics (air temperature and precipitation) were identified, and estimates were obtained for the response time of the factors of hydrothermal state of watersheds at the beginning of snow-melting (maximal snow storage, freezing depth, and soil moisture content), spring surface slope runoff, annual and spring river runoff of small rivers in different natural zones of Russian Plain.     

Current changes in water resources in Lena River basin

The effect of climate on the present-day formation conditions of the regimes of annual and base runoff in Eastern Siberia rivers and changes in those regimes are studied. The significant climate warming in Eastern Siberia in recent decades is shown to be accompanied by not only an increase in air temperature and some increase in precipitation, but also by a considerable changes in the annual and seasonal values of river and groundwater runoff. Hydrometeorological data are used to analyze variations in the mean annual and mean base runoff over the entire observation period divided into subperiods of 1940–1969 and 1970–2005. Plots, diagrams, and tables are constructed for the most representative gauges. The zoning of the territory by the runoff formation conditions was carried out and new estimates were derived for total water resources and natural groundwater resources for 1970–2005 with the construction of maps in ArcMap program.     

Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff

Particular attention is given to the reliability of hydrological modelling results. The accuracy of river runoff projection depends on the selected set of hydrological model parameters, emission scenario and global climate model. The aim of this article is to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters, to perform sensitivity analysis of the runoff projections, as well as the contribution analysis of uncertainty sources (model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models) in forecasting Lithuanian river runoff. The impact of model parameters on the runoff modelling results was estimated using a sensitivity analysis for the selected hydrological periods (spring flood, winter and autumn flash floods, and low water). During spring flood the results of runoff modelling depended on the calibration parameters that describe snowmelt and soil moisture storage, while during the low water period—the parameter that determines river underground feeding was the most important. The estimation of climate change impact on hydrological processes in the Merkys and Neris river basins was accomplished through the combination of results from A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios and global climate models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). The runoff projections of the thirty-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) were conducted applying the HBV software. The uncertainties introduced by hydrological model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models were presented according to the magnitude of the expected changes in Lithuanian rivers runoff. The emission scenarios had much greater influence on the runoff projection than the global climate models. The hydrological model parameters had less impact on the reliability of the modelling results.     

The East Asian Monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum: Evidence from geological records in northern China

The impact of global warming on the climate of northern China has been investigated intensively, and the behavior of the East Asian monsoon during previous intervals of climatic warming may provide insight into future changes. In this study, we use paleovegetation records from loess and lake sediments in the marginal zone of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) to reconstruct the EASM during the interval of warming from the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) to the Holocene. The results show that during the LGM, desert steppe or dry steppe dominated much of northern China; in addition, the southeastern margin of the deserts east of the Helan Mountains had a distribution similar to that of the present-day, or was located slightly further south, due to the cold and dry climate caused by a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and weakened EASM. During the last deglaciation, with the strengthening of the EASM and concomitant weakening of the EAWM, northern China gradually became humid. However, this trend was interrupted by abrupt cooling during the Heinrich 1(H1) and Younger Dryas(YD) events. The EASM intensified substantially during the Holocene, and the monsoon rain belt migrated at least 300 km northwestwards, which led to the substantial shrinking of the desert area in the central and eastern part of northern China, and to the large expansion of plants favored by warm and humid conditions. Paleoclimatic records from the marginal zone of the EASM all show that the EASM reached its peak in the mid-Holocene, and past global climatic warming significantly strengthened the EASM, thereby greatly improving the ecological environment in northern China. Thus, northern China is expected to become wetter as global warming continues. Finally, high resolution Holocene vegetation records are sparse compared with the numerous records on the orbital timescale, and there is a need for more studies of Holocene climatic variability on the centennial-to-decadal scale.     

Runoff reduction due to environmental changes in the Sanchuanhe river basin

Recently, runoff in many river basins in China has been decreasing. Therefore, the role that climate change and human activities are playing in this decrease is currently of interest. In this study, we evaluated an assessment method that was designed to quantitatively separate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in river basins. Specifically, we calibrated the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model using naturally recorded hydro-meteorologic data pertaining to the Sanchuanhe River basin and then determined the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff by comparing the estimated natural runoff that occurred during the period in which humans disturbed the basin to the runoff that occurred during the period prior to disturbance by humans. The results of this study revealed that the S1MHYD rainfall runoff model performs well for estimating monthly discharge. In addition, we found that absolute runoff reductions have increased in response to human activities and climate change, with average reductions of 70.1% and 29.9% in total runoff being caused by human activities and climate change, respectively. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that human activities are the primary cause of runoff reduction in the Sanchuanhe River basin.     

The impact of climate change on runoff in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin in the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the “water tower of Asia” and it plays a key role on both hydrology and climate for southern and eastern Asia. It is critical to explore the impact of climate change on runoff for better water resources management in the TP. However, few studies pay attention to the runoff response to climate change in large river systems on the TP, especially in data-sparse upstream area. To complement the current body of work, this study uses two rainfall-runoff models (SIMHYD and GR4J) to simulate the monthly and annual runoff in the upstream catchments of the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin (YTR) under historical (1962–2002) and future (2046–2065 A1B scenario) climate conditions. The future climate series are downscaled from a global climate model (MIROC3.2_hires) by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3). The two rainfall-runoff models successfully simulate the historical runoff for the eight catchments in the YTR basin, with median monthly runoff Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.86 for SIMHYD and 0.83 for GR4J. The mean annual future temperature in eight catchments show significant increase with the median of +3.8 °C. However, the mean annual future precipitation shows decrease with the median of ?5.8 % except in Lhatse (+2.0 %). The two models show similar modeling results that the mean annual future runoff in most of catchments (seven in eight) shows decrease with the median of ?13.9 % from SIMHYD and ?15.2 % from GR4J. The results achieved in this study are not only helpful for local water resources management, but also for future water utilization planning in the lower reaches region of the Brahmaputra.     

Spatial patterns of vegetation and climate in the North China Plain during the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene climatic optimum

Reconstructing the spatial patterns of regional climate and vegetation during specific intervals in the past is important for assessing the possible responses of the ecological environment under future global warming scenarios. In this study, we reconstructed the history of regional vegetation and climate based on six radiocarbon-dated pollen records from the North China Plain. Combining the results with existing pollen records, we reconstruct the paleoenvironment of the North China Plain during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) and the Holocene Climatic Optimum(HCO). The results show that changes in the regional vegetation since the LGM were primarily determined by climatic conditions, the geomorphic landscape and by human activity.During the LGM, the climate was cold and dry; mixed broadleaf-coniferous forest and deciduous-evergreen broadleaf forest developed in the southern mountains, and cold-resistant coniferous forest and mixed broadleaf-coniferous forest were present in the northern mountains. The forest cover was relatively low, with mesophytic and hygrophilous meadow occupying the southern part of the plain, and temperate grassland and desert steppe were distributed in the north; Chenopodiaceae-dominated halophytes grew on the exposed continental shelf of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. During the HCO, the climate was warm and wet;deciduous broadleaf forest and deciduous-evergreen broadleaf forest, with subtropical species, developed in the southern mountains, and deciduous broadleaf forest with thermophilic species was present in northern mountains. Although the degree of forest cover was greater than during the LGM, the vegetation of the plain area was still dominated by herbs, while halophytes had migrated inland due to sea level rise. In addition, the expansion of human activities, especially the intensification of cultivation,had a significant influence on the natural vegetation. Our results provide data and a scientific basis for paleoclimate modelling and regional carbon cycle assessment in north China, with implications for predicting changes in the ecological environment under future global warming scenarios.     

Impact of climate change on water availability in the Macquarie‐Castlereagh River Basin in Australia

The impact of future climate on runoff generation and the implications of these changes for management of water resources in a river basin are investigated by running these changes through catchment and river system models. Two conceptual daily rainfall‐runoff models are used to simulate runoff across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region for historical (1895–2006) and future (～2030) climate based on outputs from 15 of the 23 IPCC AR4 GCMs for the A1B global warming scenario. The estimates of future runoff are used as inputs to the river system model. The mean annual historical rainfall averaged across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region is 544 mm and the simulated runoff is 34 and 30 mm for SIMHYD and Sacramento rainfall‐runoff models, respectively. The mean annual future rainfall and runoff across the region are projected to decrease. The modelling results show a median estimate of a 5% reduction for SIMHYD (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 7%) and a 7% reduction for Sacramento (50% confidence interval ? 15 to + 8%) in mean annual runoff under a ～2030 climate for the region. The results from the river system modelling indicate that under the ～2030 climate scenario, the median of general security and supplementary diversions are projected to decrease by 4% (50% confidence interval ? 10 to + 5%) and 2% (50% confidence interval ? 5 to + 3%) respectively for the SIMHYD inflows and 8% (50% confidence interval ? 17 to + 6%) and 5% (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 3%) for the Sacramento inflows. The future annual and seasonal storage volumes for the Burrendong Dam and inflows at all major locations across the region are projected to be lower than the historical records. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations of the Present-Day Annual and Seasonal Runoff in the Far East and Siberia with the Use of Regional Hydrological and Global Climate Models

A method of spatial calibration and verification of regional numerical physically based models of river runoff formation, incorporating runoff formation processes in the main river channel and its tributaries, was used to obtain a statistical estimate of the quality of river runoff calculation by conventional and alternative criteria focused on runoff reproduction in different phases of water regime and the characteristics of its variations. The analysis of the simulation quality of the annual and mean monthly river runoff (average runoff, standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation) at the near-mouth gages over the historical period with boundary conditions represented by data of global climate models showed the results to be satisfactory. This allows the proposed combination of climate and hydrological models to be used to study physically based regional variations of water regime under different physiographic and climatic conditions in the examined river basins with flood runoff regime (the Amur R.) and the predominant snowmelt runoff during spring flood (the Lena R.).     

Long-Term Variations of Water Runoff and Suspended Sediment Yield in the Parana and Uruguay Rivers

The hydroclimatic conditions of water runoff formation and the hydrography of Parana and Uruguay river basins in the South America are considered. A survey of the recent studies of the hydrological regime of these rivers is given. Observation data are used to evaluate the long-term average values of water runoff and suspended sediment yield in the Parana and Uruguay and their variations along the rivers. Characteristics of many-year runoff variations in the rivers were evaluated. A climate-induced increase was identified in the Parana and Uruguay water runoff, and the corresponding present-day trends in river runoff variations in both rivers were evaluated. The total water runoff and suspended sediment yield of the Parana and Uruguay into La Plata estuary were calculated. Water balance of the drainage basin of La Plata estuary was characterized.     

Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff

Abstract

The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann

Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754.     

Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff over different time scales in the Zhang River basin

Most studies on separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff are mainly conducted at an annual scale with few analyses over different time scales, which is especially essential for regional water resources management. This paper investigates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales in the Zhang River basin in North China. Firstly, the changing trends and inflection point are analyzed for hydro-climatic series over different time scales. Then the hydrological modeling based method and sensitivity based method are used to separate the effects. The results show that the effect of climate change is stronger than that of human activities on annual runoff changes. However, the driving factors on runoff are different at seasonal scale. In the wet season, the effect of human activities on runoff, accounting for 57 %, is stronger than that of climate change, while in the dry season climate change is the dominant factor for runoff reduction and the contribution rate is 72 %. Furthermore, the effects of climate change and human activities on monthly runoff changes are various in different months. The separated effects over different time scales in this study may provide more scientific basis for the water resources adaptive management over different time scales in this basin.     

Climate changes in East China since the Late-glacial inferred from high-resolution mountain peat humification records

High-resolution peat humification records were obtained from Dajiuhu of the Shennongjia Mountains and Qianmutian of the Tianmu Mountains to study climate changes in East China. The analyses of pollen, organic matters, TOC, and Rb/Sr indicate a high degree of peat humification and thus strong decomposition of organic matter when climate was dry. Conversely, when climate was humid, the degree of humification is low because peat was preserved in a waterlogged condition. Peat humification from Dajiuhu occurred not only during the Younger Dryas (about 11.4–12.6 cal ka BP), the Bølling-Allerød Warm Period (12.6–15.2 cal ka BP), and the Oldest Dryas (about 15.2–16.0 cal ka BP), but also during the early Holocene (about 11.4–9.4 cal ka BP), the 8.2 cal ka BP cold event, and the Holocene Optimum (about 7.0–4.2 cal ka BP). Both peat humification records since nearly 5 ka BP are consistent, showing that mountain peatland has synchronous responses to the East Asia monsoon-induced precipitation. The LOI data confirm the above observation. The monsoon precipitation since nearly 5 ka BP recorded in these two peat profiles can be divided into three phases. During 4.9–3.5 ka BP, precipitation amount was high but fluctuated greatly. During 3.5–0.9 ka BP, precipitation amount was low. During 0.9–0 ka BP, degree of humification reduced gradually, indicating the increase of monsoon precipitation. Contrast to other high-resolution records from East China monsoon region shows that the monsoon precipitation records of the two peat profiles since nearly 16 ka BP are controlled by a common forcing mechanism of summer solar radicalization in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Influence of agricultural development and climate changes on the drainage valley density of the southern half of the Russian Plain

The southern half of the Russian Plain is characterized by a relatively short history of intensively ploughed lands.The duration varies from approximately three centuries in the southern part of the forest zone to less than one century in some parts of the steppe zone.It was found that after cultivation,on more than 40％ of lands in river basins the drainage valley density (Ddv) decreased by 15-58％ in all landscape zones.In the first stage,the Ddv decrease was mostly associated with increasing surface runoff coefficient after cultivation of virgin lands with proportional decreases in groundwater runoff.In the second stage,usually after reaching areas of arable lands in river basins ＞ 60％,the volume of eroded sediments entering small fiver channels exceeded the transport capacities of the permanent water-courses.As a result,the river channels completely silted.In later stages,the sediment redistribution cascade within the small river basins of the Russian Plain stabilized because of the increasing proportion of sediment eroded from the basin areas and re-deposited before entering the river channels because of the increasing area of sediment sinks due to the increase in dry valley lengths and total areas.The morphological parameters of small valleys and groundwater discharges are the key parameters that affect the intensity of small river aggradation on the regional scale.