Physical effects of hurricane bere upon Funafuti atoll,Tuvalu

Detailed aerial photograph analysis of the effects of hurricane Bebe (21 October 1972) on Funafuti atoll using ‘before and after’ photos plus ground truthing give a detailed picture of wind and water motions during passage of the cyclone. Interpretation of damage to coconut palms, motu (cay) and reef‐flat structures together with other directional indicators show that hurricane Bebe passed to the east of the atoll. Average wind and water‐flow directions were substantially different; wind directions changed during the cyclone's movement while wave and surge generated water flows remained more constant. A model showing wind and water motion associated with the storm is presented.     

The Relationship between El Niño and the Duration and Frequency of the Santa Ana Winds of Southern California

This study examines the variability of the duration and frequency of Santa Ana winds due to El Niño over a thirty‐three‐year period. Daily Weather Maps and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis were used to study large‐scale upper‐level and surface circulation patterns during wind events. A Student's t‐test was used to determine statistically significant changes in the winds during March of El Niño winters. A significant decrease in the duration and frequency of wind events was found in March during El Niño. This can be attributed to the decrease in strength and frequency of the Great Basin high pressure and the increase in wintertime cyclones in southern California.     

南乔治亚岛2016 年冬季大风天气特征分析

南乔治亚岛大风天气较为频繁, 天气形势复杂多变。通过对2016 年冬季的随船观测, 结合地面天气 图分析得出, 随船观测期间所有大风天气都由气旋直接或间接造成, 共归纳出3 种造成南乔治亚岛大风的 天气形势: 单一气旋型, 北高南低型和西高东低型。单一气旋型持续时间较短。北高南低型持续时间较长, 对南极磷虾渔船作业影响最大。西高东低型持续时间最短, 往往是鞍型气压场东移造成, 风急浪大, 且风向 与常年西风不同, 需特别注意渔船避风避浪方式。     

Spatial distribution and morphologic characteristics of gullies in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China: Hebei watershed

Gully erosion in the Black Soil Region of China has posed a threat to food security. This study aimed to determine the spatial distribution and morphologic characteristics of gullies in the region and their topographic thresholds. A 28 km² watershed was surveyed and 117 gullies measured. The results showed that: (1) Gullies were distributed equally on both hillslope and valley floor positions, with a total gully density of .66 km/km². (2) The mean depth, width, and cross-sectional area of gullies were .74 m, 2.39 m, and 2.43 m², respectively. These characteristics varied among gullies according to their topographic positions and slope gradients. Individual gully volume (V) was well predicted from gully length (L) by V = 2.08L^0.96 (r² = .66). Total gully volume (V) of each sub-watershed was predicted from mean slope gradient (S) and drainage area (A) as V = 275800S ? 8600A (r² = .73). (3) Gully erosion was more serious in steeper sub-watersheds and steeper hillslope positions. Gullies were wider in regions with relatively larger drainage areas, except for those developed in the main valley. The topographic threshold for gully initiation was S = .10A^?0.34, which indicated gully erosion was dominated by surface runoff. (4) Human activities, such as road construction, played a significant role in gully erosion.     

东南极普里兹湾1990年1—2月大风过程与气旋和锋面活动分析

本文用澳大利亚墨尔本气象中心,苏联南极青年站地面天气图和NOAA-10,NOAA-11极轨卫星云图确定了东南极普里兹湾及其附近海域1990年1—2月份气旋中心位置;讨论了这些气旋的活动特征。分析了实测大风对应的天气系统,天气形势和卫星云图特征,指出普里兹湾沿海存在气旋、锋面以及锋面云和气旋先后相继的影响。锋面及锋面、气旋先后相继影响与500hPa上的强高压脊天气形势、强风与锋面带中纹理非常不均匀区域有密切关系。     

Modeling the morphology of gully cross sections in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley

Abstract

Characterizing gully cross sections (GCs) is essential for calculating the volume and erosion rate of the gully. However, little research has focused on modeling the morphology of GCs. This study investigated 456 GCs with a laser distance meter located at the mouth, middle, and head of 152 gullies in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley of China; mapped them with AutoCAD software; fitted them with 2nd–6th degree polynomial functions, and discussed the correlation between the coefficients and the morphology of GCs. The results showed that: (1) using a 2nd-degree polynomial function (y = ax² + bx + c) to describe the morphology of GCs produced a better result than other polynomial functions; (2) the coefficient a of 2nd-degree polynomial function was correlated with depth (r = ?0.226, p < 0.01), gradient (r = 0.545, p < 0.01), and activities; and (3) the symmetry axis (?b/2a) of 2nd-degree polynomial function increased with gully change from left-deflection to right-skewed, and the absolute value showed the asymmetrical degree (r = 0.216, p < 0.01). This study will not only help to understand the morphology and evolution of gullies, but will also provide a scientific basis for prevention of gully erosion.     

西北太平洋热带气旋快速增强与环境垂直风切变统计分析

利用1990-2009年美国联合台风警报中心整编的热带气旋（TC）最佳路径资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析等压面流场资料,在分析西北太平洋TC每24 h强度变化统计特征的基础上,确定了西北太平洋TC快速增强的阈值,对比不同阈值条件下,TC快速增强初始时刻的强度,TC快速增强发生的季节变化和空间分布特征,进一步研究环境垂直风切变与TC快速增强的关系。结果表明：在西北太平洋海区,当TC强度24 h变化达到样本累积百分率的88%、90%、93%和96%的概率时,对应的强度变化值分别为25 KT、30 KT、35 KT和40 KT,定义它们为TC快速增强的阈值。该阈值越大,快速增强初始时刻的强度也越强。60%左右的TC快速增强发生在8-10月,TC快速增强的空间分布集中于125°-150°E、10°-25°N的矩形区域内。对流层不同层次的垂直风切变与TC快速增强的关系有差异,TC快速增强阈值为40 KT时对应的对流层中上层（200~500 hPa）、对流层中下层（500~850 hPa）和对流层（200~850 hPa）的垂直风切变值的概率分布显示：当垂直风切变≥12 m/s时,分别只有9.7%、1.5%、11.1%的TC可以快速增强;且其与TC快速增强时强度变化的相关系数分别为-0.15、0、-0.04,以200~500 hPa的最为显著,表明对流层中上层垂直风切变对TC强度增强的抑制作用最明显。在TC快速增强阈值为40 KT的初始时刻,将200~850 hPa垂直风切变划分为东风切变和西风切变的统计表明,57%的TC在东风切变的环境下可以快速增强。     

A global climatology of extreme rainfall rates in the inner core of intense tropical cyclones

The localized rain rate maxima (R_M) of the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated using Version 6 of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis data-set from 1998 to 2010. Specifically, this study examines the probabilities of R_M exceeding 25 mm h^?1 (P25) in intense TCs. The 25 mm h^?1 R_M is the 90th percentile of all R_M observations during the study period. The descending order of P25 observed from intense TCs for the six major ocean basins is: the North Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, and the East-central Pacific Ocean. The six major basins have been subdivided into 29 sub-basins to discern regional variability of R_M. P25 increases with increasing TC category in all major basins, except for the South Pacific. Sub-basins with intense TCs that produce extreme rainfall rate maxima include the Bay of Bengal, the South Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the north coast of Australia, southeast Melanesia, and the Northwest Atlantic. Sub-basins with a higher proportion of category 5 (CAT5) observations than category 3 (CAT3) observations tend to have a greater P25 beyond 60 km from the storm center.     

Seasonal climate inferences from high-resolution modern diatom data along a climate gradient: a case study

This study represents a step towards developing seasonal climate inferences by using high-resolution modern data sets. The importance of seasonal climate changes is highlighted by the instrumental record of a meteorological station close to our study site (lac du Sommet in the Laurentian Mountains, Québec, Canada): Between 1966 and 2001, May temperatures increased significantly by 3.1°C (r = 0.41, n = 35, p < 0.01) but annual mean temperatures only by 0.6°C (r = 0.21, n = 35, p > 0.05). Comparison of this instrumental record with fossil diatom assemblages in a sediment core from lac du Sommet showed that axis one of a principal component analysis (PCA) of the fossil diatoms was best correlated with wind velocity in June (r = 0.62, n = 19, p < 0.005) and that past diatom production was significantly enhanced in periods with colder July temperatures (r =  ?0.77, n = 19, p < 0.0005) and higher wind velocity in June (r = 77, n = 19, p < 0.0005). The strong impact of the spring and summer conditions on overall diatom composition and productivity suggests that seasonal lake responses to climate are more important than annual mean temperatures. However, the seasonal dynamics of diatom communities are not well understood, and seasonality is rarely inferred effectively from lake sediment studies. Our research presents a pilot study to answer a twofold question: Is it possible to identify diatom communities which are typical for warmer or colder seasonal climate using sediment traps, and if it is, can this knowledge be used to infer seasonal climate conditions from fossil diatom assemblages? To address these questions, the seasonal dynamics of diatom communities and water chemistry were studied using sediment traps and water samples at biweekly intervals in four lakes distributed along an altitudinal gradient in the Laurentian Mountains from May through October 2002. Date of ice break-up was significantly related to the diatom assemblages taken in spring and uncorrelated to other significant environmental variables. Summer water temperature, circulation of the water column and pH explained a significant part of the biological variance in summer, and total nitrogen (TN) explained most of the biological variance in autumn. To infer these variables, weighted averaging partial least squares models were applied to the seasonal data sets. Inferred ice break-up dates were significantly correlated with number of days below 0°C in April (r = 0.52, n = 19, p < 0.025), inferred circulation of the water column was significantly related to measured wind velocity in June (r = 0.64, n = 19, p < 0.005), inferred summer water temperature and inferred pH was significantly related to measured July air temperature (r = 0.50, r =  ?53, n = 19, p < 0.025) and inferred TN autumn concentrations had an inverse relationship to August temperatures (r =  ?0.53, n = 19, p < 0.01). This comparison of the historical record with diatom-inferred seasonal climate signals, based on the comparison of fossil diatom assemblages with modern sediment trap data of high temporal resolution, provides a promising new approach for the reconstruction of seasonal climate aspects in paleolimnological studies.     

The spatial distribution of tornadoes and high wind impacts associated with inland-moving tropical cyclones in the southeastern United States

The southeastern United States is routinely hit by tropical cyclones (TC). As TC track inland and dissipate their inland impacts can be substantial. This study examined the spatial patterns of societal impacts associated with tornadoes and high winds with 31 inland-moving TC that made landfall from 1985 to 2008. Hourly weather information was collected from all available first-order weather stations affected by each storm, as well as tropical cyclone preliminary reports issued from the National Hurricane Center. Societal impacts were identified through selected newspapers across the region and the National Climatic Data Center’s Storm Data. Geographic Information System (GIS) software was employed to make geometric measurements of the distance and direction of the impacts relative to storm center. From these measurements, the spatial distribution of the societal and meteorological impacts was plotted relative to the track (e.g., left vs. right) and location (forward vs. rear sector) of the cyclone center. Various tropical cyclone attributes, including size, strength, and forward speed of movement were then related to the occurrence of different impacts and their location relative to the cyclone track. The majority of tropical cyclone tornado and high wind impacts occur in the right-forward sector of the tropical cyclone. However, many TC produce impacts that occur in other sectors far from the center of circulation. These abnormalities are associated in many cases with interactions between the tropical cyclone circulation, topography, peripheral dry air, and extratropical synoptic weather features.     

THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SNOW COVER AND CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

Snow cover extent is correlated with the latitude, pressure, and frequency of cyclones at every five degrees of longitude from 70° to 100° West, for the winter seasons 1971 to 1980. Each cyclone parameter is also lag correlated with snow cover extent to test relationships between snow cover extent of one week and cyclone variables of successive weeks. More extensive snow cover is related to cyclones traveling farther south, having higher central pressure, and becoming less frequent.     

A geography of natural perils

Earthquakes, tropical cyclones and floods are the most important natural perils in terms of human deaths on a global basis. In Australia, at least 4300 deaths in the last 200 years have been produced by heatwaves; about 2000–2200 each by tropical cyclones and floods; and bushfires and lightning strikes have each killed at least 650 people. On a global basis it appears that floods, tropical storms, droughts and earthquakes are the most damaging natural perils. In Australia, in terms of median damage per event, hailstorms are the most expensive insured natural peril, while three events—the 1989 Newcastle earthquake, 1974's Cyclone Tracy, and the 1990 Sydney hailstorm—produced 36 per cent of the total insured damage in the period since 1967. The Newcastle earthquake and the Sydney hailstorm have provided opportunities for new understandings of these perils and their consequences. While much has been learnt from the devastation of Rabaul town by the 1994 eruption, a rare opportunity for a detailed study of building damage has been lost. Without detailed studies, risk rating, where Risk = Hazard (or peril) × Vulnerability, is difficult.     

Application of multi‐kinetic apatite fission track and (U‐Th)/He thermochronology to source rock thermal history: a case study from the Mackenzie Plain,NWT, Canada

Shale of the Upper Cretaceous Slater River Formation extends across the Mackenzie Plain of the Canadian Northwest Territories and has potential as a regional source rock because of the high organic content and presence of both oil‐ and gas‐prone kerogen. An understanding of the thermal history experienced by the shale is required to predict any potential petroleum systems. Our study integrates multi‐kinetic apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite (U‐Th)/He (AHe) thermochronometers from a basal bentonite unit to understand the timing and magnitude of Late Cretaceous burial experienced by the Slater River Formation along the Imperial River. We use LA‐ICP‐MS and EPMA methods to assess the chemistry of apatite, and use these values to derive the AFT kinetic parameter r_mr0. Our AFT dates and track lengths, respectively, range from 201.5 ± 36.9 Ma to 47.1 ± 12.3 Ma, and 16.8 to 10.2 μm, and single crystal AHe dates are between 57.9 ± 3.5 and 42.0 ± 2.5 Ma with effective uranium concentrations from 17 ppm to 36 ppm. The fission track data show no relationship with the kinetic parameter D_par and fail the χ²‐test indicating that the data do not comprise a single statistically significant population. However, when plotted against their r_mr0 value, the data are separated into two statistically significant kinetic populations with distinct track length distributions. Inverse thermal history modelling of both the multi‐kinetic AFT and AHe datasets, reveal that the Slater River Formation reached maximum burial temperatures of ~65–90 °C between the Turonian and Paleocene, indicating that the source rock matured to the early stages of hydrocarbon generation, at best. Ultimately, our data highlight the importance of kinetic parameter choice for AFT and AHe thermochronology, as slight variations in apatite chemistry may have significant implications on fission track and radiation damage annealing in apatite with protracted thermal histories through the uppermost crust.     

Time series forecasting of river flow using an integrated approach of wavelet multi-resolution analysis and evolutionary data-driven models. A case study: Sebaou River (Algeria)

The complexity of hydrological processes and lack of data for modeling require the use of specific tools for non-linear natural phenomenon. In this paper, an effort has been made to develop a conjunction model – wavelet transformation, data-driven models, and genetic algorithm (GA) – for forecasting the daily flow of a river in northern Algeria using the time series of runoff. This catchment has a semi-arid climate and strong variability in runoff. The original time series was decomposed into multi-frequency time series by wavelet transform algorithm and used as inputs to artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models. Several factors must be optimized to determine the best model structures. Wavelet-based data-driven models using a GA are designed to optimize model structure. The performances of wavelet-based data-driven models (i.e. WANFIS and WANN) were superior to those of conventional models. WANFIS (RMSE = 12.15 m³/s, EC = 87.32%, R = .934) and WANN (RMSE = 15.73 m³/s, EC = 78.83%, R = .888) models improved the performances of ANFIS (RMSE = 23.13 m³/s, EC = 54.11%, R = .748) and ANN (RMSE = 22.43 m³/s, EC = 56.90%, R = .755) during the test period.     

Effects of spring warming and mixing duration on diatom deposition in deep Tiefer See,NE Germany

Monitoring during three meteorologically different spring seasons in 2012, 2013, and 2014 revealed that temperature increase in spring, which influences spring lake mixing duration, markedly affected nutrient availability and diatom deposition in a sediment trap close to the bottom of deep Tiefer See, NE Germany. Deposition of Stephanodiscus taxa and small Cyclotella taxa was much higher after late ice out and a deep, short lake mixing period in spring 2013, compared to that after gradual warming and lengthy lake mixing periods in spring 2012 and 2014, when only brief or marginal ice cover occurred. Availability of dissolved Si and P was 33 and 20 % higher, respectively, in 2013 compared to 2014. The observed relation between high (low) diatom deposition and short (lengthy) mixing duration in spring was applied to varved sediments deposited between AD 1924 and 2008. Low detrital Si content in trapped material and a sediment core enabled use of µXRF-counts of Si as a proxy for diatom silica. The spring mixing duration for 1951–2008 was derived from FLake-model calculations. The spring warming duration related to lake mixing was approximated from air temperatures for 1924–2008 using the dates when daily mean air temperature exceeded 5 °C (start) and 10 °C (end). Diatom silica deposition showed a significant (p < 0.0001) inverse linear relationship with the modeled spring mixing duration (R² = 0.36) and the spring warming duration (R² = 0.28). In both cases, the relationship is strengthened when data from the period of low diatom production (1987–2005) is excluded (R² = 0.59 and R² = 0.35). Part of this low diatom production is related to external nutrient supply that favored growth of cyanobacteria at the expense of diatoms. This approach shows that diatom Si deposition was strongly influenced by the availability of light and nutrients, related to the duration of lake mixing and warming in spring, during most of the studied period. The remaining unexplained variability, however, indicates that additional factors influence Si deposition. Further tests in other deep, temperate lakes are necessary to verify if this relation is a common feature and consequently, if diatom Si can be used as a proxy for spring mixing duration in such lakes.     

An Investigation of the Influence of Cyclonic Airstreams on Midwestern Snowfall

Although previous climatological studies have investigated the relationship between cyclone frequency and trajectory and regional weather, analyses of structural airflow features and precipitation have been confined to meteorological case studies. In the following paper, the influence of Colorado cyclone airstreams on Midwestern snowfall is investigated using isentropic streamline maps for five cold season months. Results indicate that Colorado cyclones account for a minor percentage of Midwestern snowfall events and amounts. When snowfall is induced by Colorado cyclogenesis, diffluence and instability in the cold sector portions of the cyclone are the dominant lifting mechanisms.     

中国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析(英文)

Tropical cyclone,a high energy destructive meteorological system with heavy rainfall and gale triggered massive landslides and windstorms,poses a significant threat to coastal areas.In this paper we have developed a Tropical Cyclone Potential Impact Index (TCPI) based on the air mass trajectories,disaster information,intensity,duration,and frequency of tropical cyclones.We analyzed the spatial pattern and interannual variation of the TCPI over the period 1949-2009,and taking the Super Typhoon Saomai as an example have examined the relationship between the TCPI and direct economic losses,total rainfall,and maximum wind speed.The results reveal that China’s TCPI appears to be a weak decreasing trend over the period,which is not significant overall,but significant in some periods.Over the past 20 years,the TCPI decreased in the southern China coastal provinces of Hainan,Guangdong and Guangxi,while it increased in the southeastern coastal provinces of Zhejiang,Fujian and Taiwan.The highest values of TCPI are mainly observed in Taiwan,Hainan,the coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian and Zhejiang’s southern coast.The TCPI has a good correlation (P=0.01) with direct economic loss,rainfall,and maximum wind speed.     

我国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析

利用热带气旋路径资料和灾情资料,综合考虑热带气旋的频数、强度、范围以及持续时间,建立热带气旋潜在影响力指数,分析了1949-2009 年我国热带气旋的潜在影响力的空间格局和年际变化特征,并以0608 号超强台风“桑美”为例分析了该指数与灾害损失、过程极大风速、过程雨量的关系。研究结果表明：1949-2009 年间,我国的热带气旋的潜在影响力呈现出弱减少的趋势,这种趋势并不显著,但各阶段性的趋势比较明显;近20 年来,我国海南、广东、广西等华南沿海受热带气旋潜在影响力在下降,而浙江、福建、台湾等东南沿海省份受热带气旋潜在影响力在上升;潜在影响力指数最高的区域主要分布在台湾、海南、广东沿海、福建沿海以及浙江南部沿海等地;TCPI 与灾害损失、过程极大风速、过程降水量等有较好的相关性,并都通过了0.01 的显著性检验。     

Terminus recession,proglacial lake expansion and 21st century calving retreat of Tasman Glacier,New Zealand

The Tasman Glacier is the largest glacier in New Zealand. Although 20th century warming caused down-wastage, it remained at its Little Ice Age terminus until the late 20th century. Since then, rapid calving retreat (U_r) has occurred, allowing a large (5.96 × 10⁶ m²) proglacial lake to form (maximum depth ∼240 m). From sequential satellite image analysis and echo sounding of Tasman Lake, we document (U_r) from 2000 to 2008. U_r varies temporally, with mean U_r of 54 m/a from 2000 to 2006 and a mean U_r of 144 m/a from 2007 to 2008. Consistent with global data sets, calving rate appears closely associated with lake depth at the calving terminus.     

Performance of small-scale irrigation schemes in Lake Tana Basin of Ethiopia: technical and socio-political attributes

This study was conducted to investigate technical and socio-political attributes that lead to the underperformance of two selected irrigation schemes (Shina and Bebeks) in the Lake Tana floodplains, Ethiopia. Irrigation application efficiency (AE) at nine experimental fields showed a wide range, from 20 to 80%, but was mostly between 40 and 60%. Irrigation water-use efficiency (IWUE) varied from 1.9 to 7.2 kg m^?3 for onion and 0.9 to 1.2 kg m^?3 for maize. The lined and earthen canal conveyance losses in Bebeks were 0.037 and 0.047 l s^?1 m^?1, whereas in Shina they were 0.033 and 0.044 l s^?1 m^?1, respectively. The overall consumed ratio (OCR) of water was 0.58 for Bebeks and varied from 0.73 to 1.2 in Shina. Both schemes are performing below the standard based on technical performance indicators. Irrigation water user associations (WUAs) were not implemented, but irrigation committees (ICs), composed of local political leaders, are managing both schemes. Canal and reservoir sedimentation from erosion of upstream catchment areas during the rainy season was the major problem.