山东省城市土地集约利用与城镇化协调发展研究

城市土地集约利用与新型城镇化协调发展是当前土地管理学的核心问题.运用主成分分析与熵权的综合确权法,基于协调发展度、相对发展度模型探讨2011-2014年山东省城市土地集约利用与新型城镇化协调发展关系.结果表明:① 山东省城市土地集约利用与新型城镇化协调发展关系呈逐步优化趋势.② 山东省城市土地集约利用与新型城镇化协调关系片状分区特征明显,鲁东地区协调发展水平最高,形成以济南、青岛、烟台、威海为核心的协调发展度"高峰区";鲁中地区协调发展水平总体不高,但优化趋势显著;鲁西南地区协调发展水平较低,协调发展优化速度相对缓慢,属于土地集约利用与新型城镇化发展"双低"区域.③ 山东省城市土地集约利用与新型城镇化之间往往并非同步变化,新型城镇化发展程度总体上超前于城市土地集约利用.     

Allocation of urban land uses by Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm

Considering the ever-increasing urban population, it appears that land management is of major importance. Land uses must be properly arranged so that they do not interfere with one another and can meet each other's needs as much as possible; this goal is a challenge of urban land-use planning. The main objective of this research is to use Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to find the optimum arrangement of urban land uses in parcel level, considering multiple objectives and constraints simultaneously. Geospatial Information System is used to prepare the data and to study different spatial scenarios when developing the model. To optimize the land-use arrangement, four objectives are defined: maximizing compatibility, maximizing dependency, maximizing suitability, and maximizing compactness of land uses. These objectives are characterized based on the requirements of planners. As a result of optimization, the user is provided with a set of optimum land-use arrangements, the Pareto-front solutions. The user can select the most appropriate solutions according to his/her priorities. The method was tested using the data of region 7, district 1 of Tehran. The results showed an acceptable level of repeatability and stability for the optimization algorithm. The model uses parcel instead of urban blocks, as the spatial unit. Moreover, it considers a variety of land uses and tries to optimize several objectives simultaneously.     

Spatial multi-objective land use optimization: extensions to the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II

A spatial multi-objective land use optimization model defined by the acronym ‘NSGA-II-MOLU’ or the ‘non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II for multi-objective optimization of land use’ is proposed for searching for optimal land use scenarios which embrace multiple objectives and constraints extracted from the requirements of users, as well as providing support to the land use planning process. In this application, we took the MOLU model which was initially developed to integrate multiple objectives and coupled this with a revised version of the genetic algorithm NSGA-II which is based on specific crossover and mutation operators. The resulting NSGA-II-MOLU model is able to offer the possibility of efficiently searching over tens of thousands of solutions for trade-off sets which define non-dominated plans on the classical Pareto frontier. In this application, we chose the example of Tongzhou New Town, China, to demonstrate how the model could be employed to meet three conflicting objectives based on minimizing conversion costs, maximizing accessibility, and maximizing compatibilities between land uses. Our case study clearly shows the ability of the model to generate diversified land use planning scenarios which form the core of a land use planning support system. It also demonstrates the potential of the model to consider more complicated spatial objectives and variables with open-ended characteristics. The breakthroughs in spatial optimization that this model provides lead directly to other properties of the process in which further efficiencies in the process of optimization, more vivid visualizations, and more interactive planning support are possible. These form directions for future research.     

Spatial Modelling of Stream Water Quality Along an Urban–Rural Gradient

It is widely known that intensive land use generally decreases stream water quality, but the influence of watershed physiography is relatively poorly understood. Since management planning has to take into account the protection of water quality, the current status of stream water must be identified. The potential effects of land use and watershed physiography variables on water quality were studied in an extensive set of 83 watersheds in the Helsinki region, Finland, covering wide land‐use intensity gradient. The aims of this study were to test if the geographical information of watershed land‐use data can be used to model the stream water quality, and to examine whether the spatial water quality models are improved after including predictors of watershed physiography to the land‐use model. Water quality variables were related to watershed predictors by utilizing generalized additive models and linear mixed models, and the independent effect of the variables was investigated using a hierarchical partitioning approach. While land use turned out to be the most influential factor explaining water quality, all models improved significantly after incorporating the watershed characteristics, such as topography and soil. These results were consistent across three modelling techniques. This study, with its novel approach to examine the impacts of several watershed physiographic characteristics on urban stream water quality in northern Europe, demonstrates that spatial land use and watershed physiography data can be used as cost‐efficient predictors in stream water quality models.     

公交导向型城市开发机理及模式构建

城市交通、土地利用和城市空间结构的相互关系一直是城市地理学、城市规划学和交通地理学研究的核心问题。大容量公共交通、混合型土地开发、宜人的步行环境和高质量的公交服务是公交导向型开发(TOD)模式的主要特点。本文分析了TOD对城市土地利用和城市空间结构的作用机理发现:土地开发强度、土地利用结构以及土地价值是TOD影响城市土地利用的3 个主要方面,而TOD对路网结构、城市规模和城市空间布局的作用进一步影响城市空间结构及其演化。进一步研究发现:大容量公共交通的建设使得城市竞租曲线和开发密度具有多波峰的特点,遵循"随着时间的变化从城市中心向外围递减"的规律。基于中外城市发展背景差异,本文从宏观、中观和微观3 个层面提出建立以大容量公共交通为主轴、以TOD站点为枢纽的轴辐网络状城市空间结构,并提出了TOD站点开发的距离、级差密度、多样性和设计的4Ds原则。     

Evaluating the effects of land‐use development policies on ex‐urban forest cover: An integrated agent‐based GIS approach

We use a GIS‐based agent‐based model (ABM), named dynamic ecological exurban development (DEED), with spatial data in hypothetical scenarios to evaluate the individual and interacting effects of lot‐size zoning and municipal land‐acquisition strategies on possible forest‐cover outcomes in Scio Township, a municipality in Southeastern Michigan. Agent types, characteristics, behavioural methods, and landscape perceptions (i.e. landscape aesthetics) are empirically informed using survey data, spatial analyses, and a USDA methodology for mapping landscape aesthetic quality. Results from our scenario experiments computationally verified literature that show large lot‐size zoning policies lead to greater sprawl, and large lot‐size zoning policies can lead to increased forest cover, although we found this effect to be small relative to municipal land acquisition. The return on land acquisition for forest conservation was strongly affected by the location strategy used to select parcels for conservation. Furthermore, the location strategy for forest conservation land acquisition was more effective at increasing aggregate forest levels than the independent zoning policies, the quantity of area acquired for forest conservation, and any combination of the two. The results using an integrated GIS and ABM framework for evaluating land‐use development policies on forest cover provide additional insight into how these types of policies may act out over time and what aspects of the policies were more influential towards the goal of maximising forest cover.     

基于矢量网格的城市土地利用邻里模式研究

城市土地利用的空间分布特征一直是城市地理和城市规划领域关注的重点问题,对城市土地利用空间模式的研究有助于理解城市系统的运行状态。在分析现有城市空间结构和城市土地利用模式的基础上,从两个方面对现有基于富集因子的分析方法提出改进,一是采用矢量网格以减少分析的误差,二是采用斜网格和曼哈顿距离来对空间临近关系进行界定。采用这一方法对深圳市2015年6类城市土地利用数据进行分析,得到邻里尺度上各类用地之间富集度随距离变化的3种模式。模式I中,同类用地间的富集度在短距离内较大,且其值随着距离的增加而减小并趋于0,表明同类用地间在较短距离内相互吸引,而吸引力随着距离增加而减弱。在不同类型用地间的模式II和模式III中,富集度在较短距离内为负值,但是在模式II中,富集度随着距离的增加而逐渐增加并趋于0,表明不同用地间短距离内相互排斥,且排斥作用随着距离增加而减弱;而在模式III中,富集度则随着距离增加而快速上升到正值,然后逐渐下降并趋于0,表明不同类型用地在较短距离内相互排斥,但随着距离增加很快变为相互吸引,最后吸引力随着距离增加慢慢减弱。结果表明,相对于基于栅格网的分析方法,基于矢量斜网格的分析方法能够显著降低分析误差。     

基于经济社会活动视角的城市空间演化过程模型

中国的快速城市化带来了诸多问题,亟需制定合理有效的城市空间政策以确保城市发展的可持续性。因此,开展城市空间发展过程模拟、实施政策检验对于推进新型城镇化和城市的健康发展具有重要意义。本文基于“土地利用/交通相互作用模型”(Land Use/Transport Interaction Model, LUTI),以经济社会活动为切入点,构建了城市空间演化过程模型(Urban Activity Spatial Evolution Model, UASEM),并进一步给出了UASEM模型各子模型的具体实现和模块之间衔接的逻辑结构,从可操作层面给出了模型的实现方法。该模型可用于模拟城市空间演化过程、检验政策实施等,将成为城市空间可持续发展模拟分析研究的重要工具。     

城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的理论基础与发展趋势

城市交通与土地利用间的协调发展是科学调控城市发展的重要环节。在基于地租理论的微观区位决策与土地利用与交通系统宏观动态交互理论基础上,回顾了城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的发展过程及不同依据下的分类特征,对空间相互作用和重力模型理论模型、空间经济学理论模型、随机效用和离散选择模型和基于行为的微观模型4类一体化模型的优劣进行了系统梳理分析。分析表明,具有合理理论基础、科学数据处理方法、较高模型精度和政策评估适用性的一体化模型仍存在巨大发展空间。近年来西方学者研究趋向微观化、综合化和简约化,而国内一体化模型发展相对滞后,要求模型理论与综合实证开发的进一步突破。特别是在新数据、新交通技术、国土空间规划体系背景下,城市交通与土地利用一体化模型将从“空间”模型向“时空间”模型转变;从“宏观”集计模型向“微观”行为模型转变;从“交通-土地”模型向“综合系统”模型转变;从“样本数据”模型向“大数据”模型转变;从“交通规划”应用向“国土空间规划”应用转变。旨在对城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的一般结构、原理类型、当前面临的问题和挑战进行深入剖析,以推进一体化模型在中国的研究与开发。     

环杭州湾城市群土地利用的空间冲突与复杂性

土地利用的空间冲突与复杂性研究可为土地利用空间管控提供理论依据和实践支撑。以环杭州湾城市群1990年、2000年、2008年和2013年四期遥感影像为例,分析土地利用系统复杂性、脆弱性及动态性,计算空间冲突综合指数。结果表明：土地利用空间冲突等级表现为一般冲突>中度冲突>轻度冲突>重度冲突;空间冲突的空间格局呈现团状、块状及带状聚集模式分布,具有明显的梯度特征;随着时间的推移,空间冲突的空间自相关性减弱,并具有明显的边缘效应。研究区土地利用空间冲突表现为均衡→打破原有均衡→出现空间自相关→出现空间趋势→形成空间自组织的演变规律。土地利用空间冲突从多核心向单核心模式发展,区域发展水平较高且发展趋于均衡。     

多层次矢量元胞自动机建模及土地利用变化模拟

城市规划对土地利用变化起着重要的引导作用,各层次规划相互支撑、互为补充,自上而下影响着土地利用格局的演变。矢量元胞自动机以不规则的地理实体作为基本单元,可以更逼真地表达客观复杂的城市用地空间结构。然而,当面向具有层次协同性、空间引导性和管控传导性等特征的城市规划时,其元胞多层次体系构造、层次间协同方法和转换规则获取等关键问题凸显出来。本文以江阴市2007年、2012年、2017年3期土地利用现状数据为基础,在多层次矢量元胞自动机建模基础上,模拟了2017年土地利用变化,通过模拟结果与用地现状对比分析,对模型个别参数进行了修正,进一步提高了模型的可行性与适用性,进而预测了2022年城市土地利用格局。模拟结果显示,中心城片区建设用地发展已经趋于饱和,澄南、澄东南和澄东片区建设用地扩张较为明显,有逐步形成“中心城区—城镇组团—村庄”三级城乡空间聚落体系的趋势。最后利用FoM指标对模拟结果进行了评价,得到整体和各片区的精度基本都大于或接近于0.21,表明模拟结果精度较高,其构建的模型在面向多层次规划的用地变化模拟方面具有更好的效果。     

城市土地潜力分析--以南京市为例

研究城市土地潜力是城市建设者合理利用城市土地、提高城市土地利用效率、保护耕地的基础。该文利用GIS对土地、规划、环保、人口等相关数据进行整合,从房地产开发的角度建立测算最低经济容积率的模型,求得每块城市土地的经济容积率;基于GIS空间分析功能,分析城市土地利用现状与最低经济容积率,并用地域环境质量综合评价、历史文化名城保护规划等数据对结果进行修正,得出南京市城市土地潜力的数量、质量及空间分布。     

中国资源型城市产业结构升级对土地利用效率的影响

在中国经济面临结构转型和空间重塑的关键时期,探究资源型城市产业结构升级对土地利用效率的影响机理,对于破解资源型城市产业发展路径依赖与土地低效利用困境具有重要意义。基于中国115座地级资源型城市面板数据,运用产业结构层次指数与基于DEA的超效率SBM-Undesirable模型刻画资源型城市产业结构升级与土地利用效率的时空演化特征,通过面板Tobit模型探究资源型城市产业结构升级对土地利用效率的异质性影响及作用渠道。结果表明：(1)中国资源型城市产业结构升级成效显著,再生型、煤炭型和钢铁型城市升级效果更为明显。土地利用效率呈波动上升趋势,高值城市数量显著增加,以经济基础较好的再生型和成长型城市为主。(2)资源型城市产业结构升级对土地利用效率提升尚未形成普遍的驱动效应,其影响机制在不同类型城市中具有显著的异质性,仅再生型城市呈现显著的正向影响。(3)资源型城市产业结构升级通过经济产出提升、要素配置优化与环境污染控制等渠道驱动土地利用效率的动态演化。现阶段,土地经济产出偏低、用地结构失调、环境污染负外部性过高是制约资源型城市土地利用效率提升的主要症结。资源型城市转型具有长期性、系统性特征,应...     

城市居住-就业空间特征及组织模式——以广州市为例

作为城市居民生活与生产的两大载体,城市居住与就业用地及其空间组织对城市发展及空间格局起着重要的作用。随着中国城市社会经济和城市规划建设的发展,大城市居住-就业的空间格局发展巨大的变化。本文以广州为案例,分析了广州市居住-就业空间均衡性、宏观空间组织模式和不同片区的居住-就业中微观空间组织模式等,并从历史因素、政府因素、市场因素和社会因素等角度揭示了广州"自上而下"和"自下而上"两种力量共同作用下,居住-就业空间格局的演化过程和规律。论文倡导多元化的土地开发模式,提倡从居住与就业空间协调的角度调节交通需求的空间分布,进而优化城市空间结构,达到提高城市运作效率的目的,并试图在研究视角上为国内其他城市的同类研究提供借鉴。     

Integrated modelling of population,employment and land-use change with a multiple activity-based variable grid cellular automaton

A constrained cellular automaton (CA) framework is used to model both land use and, at the same resolution, densities of population and economic activity. The multi-scale processes determining the location of population, economic activity and land use are captured in a variable grid CA, in which the neighbourhood of each cell includes the entire modelled area. The transition rules generating the spatial dynamics incorporate both the land use and the activities, and because they cover the entire modelled area, they represent interaction effects at all spatial scales; effectively, they are distance decay functions. In general, any particular cell hosts a number of activities (population, employment in various sectors) regardless of its land use, so in effect multiple land uses are modelled as multiple activities, although activity levels are normally highest on cells of the corresponding land use. The model is applied to both the urban-centred Greater Dublin Region and the country of Belgium, which consists of the entire polycentric urban system and its rural matrix. Results for both applications are good, as measured by the errors of both predicted populations and fractal dimensions, and the model outperforms the best existing models by these measures.     

基于县域单元的广东省土地利用 绩效空间差异研究

基于县域单元维度,运用GIS空间分析法和基于PSR模型的协调度测度法对广东省城市土地利用绩效空间差异进行研究。结果表明：广东省土地利用效益绩效和效率绩效空间集聚特征显著,而公平绩效则相反;综合绩效的空间集聚可划分为热点区域、冷点区域、异质冷点及异质热点区域4种类型,热点区域和冷点区域的分布面积最大,稳定性明显优于异质值区域;土地利用绩效协调度格局呈现明显的与广东省社会经济地域空间结构相耦合的“中心―外围”结构。协调度格局与综合绩效格局总体相协调,但并不呈单纯的正相关关系。     

广东省矿泉水的基本特征及开发利用建议

广东省矿泉水资源丰富,形成条件好。文章搜集了广东省矿泉水现状以及开发方面的各项数据信息,通过整理比对,发现广东省矿泉水具有分布范围广、分布与地质构造的走向大体一致、品种全、储量丰富以及补给条件好的基本特征;分析了开发利用中存在的问题：水源地污染、开发力度有待加强以及市场指导力度弱。再借鉴国内外矿泉水开发利用的经验,对广东省矿泉水开发利用提出了合理布点、加强矿泉水资源保护、适当加大开发力度与科学规划矿泉水市场的建议,并认为应使矿泉水产品多样化、系列化,联合旅游业,扩大消费领域,使广东省矿泉水资源更好地服务于民。     

LAND‐USE DYNAMICS BEYOND THE AMERICAN URBAN FRINGE*

ABSTRACT. A deficiency common to both the historical debates over loss of agricultural land and the current discussions of urbanization and sprawl is a limited understanding of land‐use dynamics beyond the urban fringe. Data aggregated at the county level poorly capture the fine‐grained pattern of land‐use change beyond the dynamic urban‐rural interface. Furthermore, current urban‐based definitions are poorly suited to delineate these areas, and low‐density, exurban land use is difficult to measure using existing land‐cover databases. Urbanization and the conversion of once‐agricultural or other natural resource lands to other uses has traditionally been tracked using urban areas, as delimited in the U.S. census. Urban densities are typically defined as areas with more than 1,000 people per square mile, or 1.6 people per acre (U.S. Census Bureau 2000). Assuming an average of 2.5 people per housing unit, this translates to roughly 0.7 units per acre, or approximately 1 unit per 1.6 acres. The analytical units used in the census, however, both overbound and underbound areas with urban densities. About one‐third of urban areas in 1990 comprised lower‐than‐urban housing density, thanks to overbounding. But, then, one‐third of locations that had urban‐level housing densities failed to be included in urban areas as a result of underbounding, which, if counted, would have constituted another 18 million acres of urban area. An increase over time of the average number of acres required per housing unit in exurban and higher‐density locations occurred in roughly one‐third of U.S. counties from 1960 to 1990 and persisted from 1990 to 2000. In 2000 roughly 38 million acres were settled at urban densities, and nearly ten times that much land was settled at rates from low, exurban density (as low as one house per 40 acres) to higher rates (up to one per 10 acres). This represents a continuing encroachment on land previously given over to other uses—habitat or agriculture. Practitioners of natural resource management need to recognize the ubiquity of exurban development and better incorporate the fine‐scale patterns of land use beyond the urban fringe.     

京津冀地区耕地利用转型时空分异及驱动机制

耕地利用转型代表耕地利用形态的趋势性变化。论文以京津冀地区157个县域空间为基本研究单元,从显性形态与隐性形态双重属性出发构建耕地利用形态指标体系,运用冷热点、空间变差函数等方法分析1990—2015年耕地利用形态变化的时空特征,在此基础上,利用空间误差模型(spatial error model, SEM)对耕地利用转型的驱动机制进行了定量分析。结果表明：① 京津冀地区耕地利用形态指数空间分布呈东南高、西北低的格局,与该地区地形分布格局基本一致,且因坝上高原特色农业发展形成独立高值区。② 京津冀地区耕地利用形态指数空间分异呈现逐渐缩小的趋势,显著热点区与显著冷点区分布相对稳定且面积不断缩小,耕地利用转型较为平稳。显性形态值普遍呈现先升高后降低趋势,隐性形态值则呈升高趋势,表明京津冀耕地出现空间收缩、功能优化式转型。③ 高程是影响京津冀地区耕地利用形态空间特征的主要自然环境因素,二三产业占比、地均固定资产投资与城镇化率等经济发展和城镇建设因素则是驱动1990—2015年京津冀地区耕地转型的主导因素,但不同时段、不同县域单元耕地转型动力机制存在差异,各驱动因子作用强度也不完全一致。     

不同生态保育尺度下铜陵市土地利用结构优化

与传统发展模式相比,新阶段的土地利用应该与区域自然基础和生态环境格局相匹配,科学判别和保护土地空间增长的生态底线,引导地区土地利用结构的优化具有重要意义。以铜陵市为例,从生态环境约束角度出发,利用土地利用的生态环境敏感性评价方法对区域用地进行分等定级,设定了不同生态保育尺度和不同发展情景下的用地约束界限。在此基础上对铜陵市土地利用结构进行多目标情景分析与优化配置研究,从保障生态环境约束并实现效益最优的角度提出铜陵市土地利用结构优化的方案。