西北干旱区近50年气候变化特征与趋势

20世纪后期全球增暖趋势越来越明显,受全球增暖的影响,西北地区的气候也将受到不同程度的影响。选取了西北干旱区1951～2000年的21个代表站点气温、降水量资料,采用趋势系数法对西北干旱区近50年气温和降水变化进行分析,找出各分区的变化趋势。结果表明:近50年西北干旱区气温呈上升趋势(0.22℃/10 a),1986年后气温明显升高;柴达木盆地和新疆北部升温较大;各季都有增温趋势,贡献最大的是秋冬两季。降水变化有增加的趋势(3.2 mm/10 a),年降水量贡献最大的是夏季;各区降水都有增加,其中新疆北部降水增加最多。西北干旱区近50年气温升高趋势是南北高,中间低;降水量增加趋势从东南向西北呈现递增的格局。     

汕优2植株氮素营养与产量的构成关系

对汕优２号四年的植株氮素营养与产量进行通径分析,结果表明：用分蘖始期,分蘖盛期,分化一期,分化三期,孕穗期和齐穗期等６个生育期植株氮的线性回归方程来估测产量,其可靠程度达９９．７７％,齐穗期的植株氮素营养是影响产量的最重要因子;若植株氮素含量在分蘖盛期和分化三期较低,而其它各生育期均较高,则产量也高。根据研究结果,建议采用“前促,中控,后补”的施肥原则。     

汕优2植株氮素营养与产量的构成关系

对汕优2号四年的植株氮素营养与产量进行通径分析,结果表明：用分蘖始期、分蘖盛期、分化一期、分化三期、孕穗期和齐穗期等6个生育期植株氮的线性回归方程来估测产量,其可靠程度达99．77％;齐穗期的植株氮素营养是影响产量的最重要因子;若植株氮素含量在分蘖盛期和分化三期较低,而其它各生育期均较高,则产量也高。根据研究结果,建议采用“前促、中控、后补”的施肥原则。     

陕西近40年气候变化特征的分析

利用陕西96个台站近40a气候资料，通过对气温和降水两个基本气象要素变化特征进行全面分析，得到陕西气候变化的一些特征。（1）近40a来，陕西平均气温在经历了20世纪60年代后期的低温后，从80年代中期开始有明显的上升趋势，陕北西部上升幅度最为明显；冬季平均气温明显上升，夏季平均气温有明显的降低趋势；极端气温明显上升，特别是90年代以后极端最低气温上升明显。（2）陕西平均年总降水量波动略有减少，自20世纪90年代以后冬季降水量增加明显，夏季降水量减少，尤其是关中西部增加明显。（3）年平均气温、季平均气温变化存在以1985年为跃变点，这次跃变比全国晚5～7a，比西北地区提前1a。     

欧亚大陆雪盖与四川盆地夏季气温的关系

应用统计学方法,分析了欧亚大陆雪盖与四川盆地夏季气温的关系。结果表明:前期雪盖面积异常对四川盆地夏季冷暖有长期稳定的影响,而冬春季最为显著;欧亚大陆雪盖是四川夏季长期天气过程的主要影响因子,在四川长期天气业务预报中具有明确的应用价值。     

北斗CORS探测的大气可降水量与重庆降雨的关系

通过分析2018年2次典型降雨过程中大气可降水量(precipitable water vapor,PWV)的分布特征及其与实际降水量的关系,探讨PWV在预测降雨中的应用。结果表明,在降雨过程中,PWV的分布与实际降水量具有很好的相关性。PWV对降雨的发生具有一定的指示作用,在降雨发生前6~12 h,PWV开始增加;在降雨发生前1~2 h内PWV迅速上升;当PWV显著增加并保持高值时,预示强降雨的发生。PWV变化越快,降雨概率和降水量就越大。滑动平均处理结果进一步证明,强降雨发生前后,PWV会出现快速聚集和释放的现象,PWV可作为短期临近预报及天气分析等研究和应用的序列资料,为传统气象手段提供有力补充。     

陕北地区1997-2006年NDVI变化与气候因子的关系

利用1997-2006年的AvHRR NOAA遥感资料,对陕西省陕北地区(榆林市、延安市和铜川市部分地区)地表植被指数的空间变化和时间变化进行了分析,并对相应时段的气候因子与植被指数之间的关系,以及气候因子对该地区植破的影响进行了分析.结果表明:近10a陕北大部地区平均植被有增加的趋势,但部分地区有减少的趋势.四季平均NDVI呈上升趋势,春季是陕北季平均NDVI上升趋势最为显著,上升速度最快的季节.降水量对地表植被的变化起重要的作用,特别是对农业用地植被和草地植被的影响;对于常绿针叶林和落叶阔叶林植被,降水的年际变化对地表植被的影响较小;温度的变化对地表植被的变化影响显著.     

北半球两大长波槽的异常变化与贵州夏旱

分析了北半球两大长波槽即东亚大槽和北美东岸大槽的异常变化对贵州夏旱的指示作用。并得出冬春季节东亚大槽明显偏浅（弱）与北美东岸大槽明显偏深（强）同时发生,是贵州夏旱预测的一个强信号,并以两大长波槽指数为预报因子建立了夏旱短期气候预测模型,经最近３年试报效果较好。     

2004年北太平洋柔鱼钓产量分析及作业渔场与表温的关系

根据2004年5~11月我国鱿钓船在北太平洋生产数据,结合表温资料,按经纬度1°×1°的格式,利用Marineexplorer 4.0软件作图进行柔鱼钓产量及渔场与表温的关系分析。结果表明,5~7月在160°E以东海域作业,产量较低;8~10月在150°~160°E海域作业,为生产作业的产量高峰期,占总产量的62.5%;11月在150°E以西海域作业,产量也较低。在150°E以西海域CPUE最高,150°~160°E中部海域次之,160°E以东海域最低。作业渔场的适宜表温呈现出季节性变化。各月适宜表温分别为:5月12~14℃;6月15~16℃;7月14~16℃;8月18~19℃;9月16~17℃;10月15~16℃;11月12~13℃。     

Study on model for remote sensing estimation of maize yield

ＳＴＵＤＹＯＮＭＯＤＥＬＦＯＲＲＥＭＯＴＥＳＥＮＳＩＮＧＥＳＴＩＭＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＭＡＩＺＥＹＩＥＬＤＬｉｕＺｈａｏｌｉ（刘兆礼）ＨｕａｎｇＴｉｅｑｉｎｇ（黄铁青）ＷａｎＥｎｐｕ（万恩璞）ＺｈａｎｇＹａｎｇｚｈｅｎ（张养贞）ＣｈａｎｇｃｈｕｎＩｎｓｔｉ...     

Study on model for remote sensing estimation of maize yield

Through analysis of perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) from combination of visible and near-infrared spectrums reflecting the feature of crop reflectance, we come to the conclusion that the index can better indicate crop instantaneous photosynthesis whereas people generally regard it as the representation of crop leaf area index (LAI). Exploration of crop photosynthesis within a day and its period of duration leads to production of photosynthetic vegetation index (PST) that can reflect the whole crop accumulated photosynthesis, which means the total biomass produced by crop, moreover the method simulating PST is put forward by employment of multi-temporal spectrum parameters. On the basis of the achievements mentioned above, a new comprehensive model for remote sensing estimation of maize yield is established, which can comprehensively show major physiological actions of maize and the course of its yield formation, organically integrate various effective ways of crop yield estimation. It lays a solid foundation for carrying out remote sensing estimation of maize yield on a large scale.     

The link between interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and summer precipitation in Shandong Province

Relationship between the onset date of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Shandong Province was examined by comprehensive analysis to establish a conceptual model of the link. If the summer monsoon occurs earlier, the 500 hPa level would induce the teleconnection of Eurasian pattern in the summer (June-August), which indicates that the western Pacific subtropical high is displaced northward further than usual, the Siberian high is intensified and the Okhotsk low is deepened. Under such circumstance, Shandong, located in the west side of the subtropical high and in front of the mid-Siberia high, would be expected to have a wet summer because it is quite possible for cold and warm air to meet and interact with each other in Shandong. Statistical analysis revealed that the 500 hPa anomalies over Korea and Japan were sensitive to the SCS monsoon onset date and very important to precipitation in Shandong, and that the convective activities over the deep water basin in the SCS in 24-26 pentads significantly influenced the position of the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high. These findings yielded better understanding of the causative mechanisms involved in the precipitation generation, so that the knowledge gained can possibly be applied for long-lead forecast.     

IMPACTS OF ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION ON SUMMER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA

1INTRODUCTIONSummer precipitation in China is a phenomenon hap-pening in the south-north oscillation process of the EastAsian summermonsoon, andthe monsoon is in essenceresulted from the joint effects of the planetary scale cir-culation ofthermal convecti…     

Detecting the relationship between summer rainfall anomalies in eastern china and the SSTA in the global domain with a new significance test method

It is suggested that the multiple samples in a correlation map or a set of correlation maps should be examined with sig-nificance tests as per the Bernoulli probability, model. Therefore, both the contemporaneous and lag correlations of summertime pre-cipitation R in any one of the three regions of Northern China (NC), the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley (CHRV), and Southern China (SC) with the SSTA in the global domain have been tested in the present article, using our significance test method and the method proposed by Livezey and Chen (1983) respectively. Our results demonstrate that the contemporaneous correlations of sum-mer R in CHRV with the SSTA are larger than those in NC. Significant correlations of SSTA with CHRV R are found to be in some warm SST regions in the tropics, whereas those of SSTA with NC R, which are opposite in sign as compared to the SSTA-CHRV R correlations, are found to be in some regions where the mean SSTs are low. In comparison with the patterns of the contemporaneous correlations, the 1 to 12 month lag correlations between NC R and SSTA, and those between CHRV summer R and SSTA show simi-lar patterns, including the magnitudes and signs, and the spatial distributions of the coefficients. However, the summer rainfall in SC is not well correlated with the SSTA, no matter how long the lag interval is. The results derived from the observations have set up a relationship frame connecting the precipitation anomalies in NC, CHRV, and SC with the SSTA in the global domain, which is criti-cally useful for our understanding and predicting the climate variabilities in different parts of China Both NC and CHRV summer R are connected with El Nino events, showing a'--'pattern in an El Nino year and a'+ +'pattern in the subsequent year.     

贵州与印度的夏季风的异同分析

季风作了气象科学的一个重要课题，许多人都作了大量研究，中国和印度均处于季风区，印度季风和中国季风的研究已作了大量研究，揭露了不少事实，但中国季风的研究多指我国的东部，而贵州位于我国西南部，地处东亚季风和印度季风之间的过渡区，因此，对贵州省的论及较少，从气候的角度出发，把贵州和印度的季风的某些特征量，如降雨、风、环流等进行对比分析，在一定程度上反映了贵州和印度夏季风的主要异同。     

Relation between δ18O in atmospheric precipitation and temperature and precipitation

The paper analyzes the relation between δ¹⁸O and temperature and precipitation in different regions of the world on the basis of the data from the global observational network set by the International Atomic Energy Agency (I-AEA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The results show that there is the marked positive correlation between δ¹⁸O and temperature in the mid-high latitude continent regions, and the marked negative correlation between δ¹⁸O and precipitation in the mid-low-latitude ocean and coast stations.     

Climatic features of summer temperature in northeast china under warming background

By using,summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China （NET） were analyzed based on the background of climate wanning. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15~C/10a in Northeast China, which was higher than that on the global, Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly, it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer; secondly, the temperature variability increased, which displayed the increase of climatic instability; thirdly, the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously, but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming background, which would be worthy of notice further.     

冬夏季热带太平洋至印度洋次表层海温变化的模态特征

采用美国Scripps海洋研究所的1955—1998年全球海洋上层海水温度月距平资料,对热带太平洋至印度洋各层海温进行经验正交函数分解,分析其主要模态特征。结果表明：热带太平洋至印度洋次表层海温场主要表现出东、西太平洋海温异常反位相变化的特征,异常强度冬季明显强于夏季。冬季赤道东太平洋40m层,东印度洋至西太平洋120m层,夏季赤道东太平洋40m层,东印度洋至西太平洋160m层为海温异常的显著区域。冬季0—60m层第一特征向量表现出厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）模态特征,第二特征向量表现出海温异常的东西运移模态特征,80—400m层第一特征向量表现出西太平洋暖池模态特征,第二特征向量表现出海温异常的东西运移模态特征。夏季0—60m层特征向量表现出厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）模态,80—400m层特征向量表现出西太平洋暖池模态特征。