基于能源消费的中国不同产业空间的碳足迹分析

Using energy consumption and land use data of each region of China in 2007,this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint model based on energy consumption,and estimated the carbon emission amount of fossil energy and rural biomass energy of dif-ferent regions of China in 2007.Through matching the energy consumption items with indus-trial spaces,this paper divided industrial spaces into five types:agricultural space,living & industrial-commercial space,transportation industrial space,fishery and water conservancy space,and other industrial space.Then the author analyzed the carbon emission intensity and carbon footprint of each industrial space.Finally,advices of decreasing industrial carbon footprint and optimizing industrial space pattern were put forward.The main conclusions are as following:(1) Total amount of carbon emission from energy consumption of China in 2007 was about 1.65 GtC,in which the proportion of carbon emission from fossil energy was 89%.(2) Carbon emission intensity of industrial space of China in 2007 was 1.98 t/hm2,in which,carbon emission intensity of living & industrial-commercial space and of transportation in-dustrial space was 55.16 t/hm2 and 49.65 t/hm2 respectively,they were high-carbon-emission industrial spaces among others.(3) Carbon footprint caused by industrial activities of China in 2007 was 522.34 106 hm2,which brought about ecological deficit of 28.69 106 hm2,which means that the productive lands were not sufficient to compensate for carbon footprint of industrial activities,and the compensating rate was 94.5%.As to the regional carbon footprint,several regions have ecological profit while others have not.In general,the present ecologi-cal deficit caused by industrial activities was small in 2007.(4) Per unit area carbon footprint of industrial space in China was about 0.63 hm2/hm2 in 2007,in which that of living & indus-trial-commercial space was the highest (17.5 hm2/hm2).The per unit area carbon footprint of different industrial spaces all presented a declining trend from east to west of China.     

1998-2008年中国农作物化肥消费的时空分异(英文)

The agricultural and land policies in China are always focused on protecting its food supply and security because of the country’s large population and improved diets.The crop production guide ’Take Grain as the Key Link’ prompted peasants to plant grain on most of the agricultural land,leading to the majority of fertilizer being used in grain crops for many years in China.This situation has changed dramatically in recent years.Based on data pertaining to provincial crops sown area and fertilizer use per unit area in 1998 and 2008,the temporal and spatial variations of China’s fertilizer consumption by crops were analyzed at the provincial level,and the results are presented here.(1) Fertilizer consumption in China grew strongly in the last decade,while the growth was mainly attributable to the increase of fertilizer con-sumption by horticultural crops.The fertilizer consumption of grain crops dropped from 71.0% in 1998 to 57.8% in 2008.Thus,it is concluded that the emphasis of fertilizer consumption is shifting toward horticultural crops.(2) There were marked differences in the growth rates of fertilizer consumption from the regional point of view.The national average growth rate of fertilizer consumption was 31.9% during 1998-2008.The western and northeastern parts of the country came close to the national average,while the eastern part was lower,with an average of 13.0%,and central China was much higher(50.8%).The increase of fertilizer consumption in central and west China was higher than the other zones,which already ac-counted for 77.9% of the national total.Thus,it is concluded that the consumption emphasis of chemical fertilizer shifts toward the central and western regions.(3) The decline of fertilizer consumption by grain crops was largely due to the decrease in sown area compared with the increase by vegetable crops attributable to the enlarging sown area;the increase by orchard crops was affected by both expanding the sown area and fertilizer use per unit area.     

中国旅游业能源消耗与二氧化碳排放量估算(英文)

In 2009, nearly 900 million international tourist arrivals were counted worldwide. A global activity of this scale can be assumed to have a substantial impact on the environment. In this contribution, five major aspects such as the change of LUCC and the use of energy and its associated impacts had been recognized. Recently, the impact of tourism on environment and climate attracts the attention of international organizations and societies in pace with rapid development of tourism industry. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in tourism sector are becoming a hot spot of international tourism research in recent five years. The use of energy for tourism can be divided according to transport-related purposes (travel to, from and at the destination) and destination-related purposes excluding transports (accommodation, food, tourist activities, etc.). In addition, the transports, accommodation and foods are related to many other industries which are dependent on energy. Thus, the estimations of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in tourism sector have become a worldwide concern. Tourism in China grows rapidly, and the number of domestic tourists was 1902 million in 2009. Energy use and its impact on the environment increase synchronously with China’s tourism. It is necessary to examine the relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions. In this article, a preliminary attempt was applied to estimate the energy consumption and CO2 emissions from China’s tourism sector in 2008. Bottom-up approach, literature research and mathematical statistics technology were also adopted. According to the calculations, Chinese tourism-related may have consumed approximately 428.30 PJ of energy in 2008, or about 0.51% of the total energy consumptions in China. It is estimated that CO2 emissions from tourism sector amounted to 51.34 Mt, accounting for 0.86% of the total in China. The results show that tourism is a low-carbon industry and also a pillar industry coping with global climate change, energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction. Based on this, the authors suggested that tourism should become an important field in low-carbon economic development.     

中国能源消费碳排放的空间计量分析(英文)

Based on energy consumption data of each region in China from 1997 to 2009 and using ArcGIS9.3 and GeoDA9.5 as technical support,this paper made a preliminary study on the changing trend of spatial pattern at regional level of carbon emissions from energy con-sumption,spatial autocorrelation analysis of carbon emissions,spatial regression analysis between carbon emissions and their influencing factors.The analyzed results are shown as follows.(1) Carbon emissions from energy consumption increased more than 148% from 1997 to 2009 but the spatial pattern of high and low emission regions did not change greatly.(2) The global spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions from energy consumption in-creased from 1997 to 2009,the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there exists a "polarization" phenomenon,the centre of "High-High" agglomeration did not change greatly but expanded currently,the centre of "Low-Low" agglomeration also did not change greatly but narrowed currently.(3) The spatial regression analysis showed that carbon emissions from energy consumption has a close relationship with GDP and population,R-squared rate of the spatial regression between carbon emissions and GDP is higher than that between carbon emissions and population.The contribution of population to carbon emissions in-creased but the contribution of GDP decreased from 1997 to 2009.The carbon emissions spillover effect was aggravated from 1997 to 2009 due to both the increase of GDP and population,so GDP and population were the two main factors which had strengthened the spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions.     

中国不同区域能源消费碳足迹的时空变化(英文)

Study on regional carbon emission is one of the hot topics under the background of global climate change and low-carbon economic development, and also help to establish different low-carbon strategies for different regions. On the basis of energy consumption and land use data of different regions in China from 1999 to 2008, this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint models based on total energy consumption, and calculated the amount of carbon emissions and carbon footprint in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. The author also analyzed carbon emission density and per unit area carbon footprint for each region. Finally, advices for decreasing carbon footprint were put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions from total energy consumption increased 129% from 1999 to 2008 in China, but its spatial distribution pattern among different regions just slightly changed, the sorting of carbon emission amount was: Eastern China > Northern China > Central and Southern China > Southwest China > Northwest China. (2) The sorting of carbon emission density was: Eastern China > Northeast China > Central and Southern China > Northern China > Southwest China > Northwest China from 1999 to 2003, but from 2004 Central and Southern China began to have higher carbon emission density than Northeast China, the order of other regions did not change. (3) Carbon footprint increased significantly since the rapid increasing of carbon emissions and less increasing area of pro-ductive land in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. Northern China had the largest carbon footprint, and Northwest China, Eastern China, Northern China, Central and Southern China followed in turn, while Southwest China presented the lowest area of carbon footprint and the highest percentage of carbon absorption. (4) Mainly influenced by regional land area, Northern China presented the highest per unit area carbon footprint and followed by Eastern China, and Northeast China; Central and Southern China, and Northwest China had a similar medium per unit area carbon footprint; Southwest China always had the lowest per unit area carbon footprint. (5) China faced great ecological pressure brought by carbon emission. Some measures should be taken both from reducing carbon emission and increasing carbon absorption.     

基于情景的中国1951-2010年极端高温灾害的危险性分析(英文)

China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter’s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differentially-weighted extreme temperature indices (maximum temperature and high temperature days). To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental impact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.     

2000-2010年黄河上游流域植被年际变化及其对气候要素的响应(英文)

To understand the variations in vegetation and their correlation with climate factors in the upper catchments of the Yellow River, China, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) time series data from 2000 to 2010 were collected based on the MOD13Q1 product. The coefficient of variation, Theil–Sen median trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test were combined to investigate the volatility characteristic and trend characteristic of the vegetation. Climate data sets were then used to analyze the correlation between variations in vegetation and climate change. In terms of the temporal variations, the vegetation in this study area improved slightly from 2000 to 2010, although the volatility characteristic was larger in 2000–2005 than in 2006–2010. In terms of the spatial variation, vegetation which is relatively stable and has a significantly increasing trend accounts for the largest part of the study area. Its spatial distribution is highly correlated with altitude, which ranges from about 2000 to 3000 m in this area. Highly fluctuating vegetation and vegetation which showed a significantly decreasing trend were mostly distributed around the reservoirs and in the reaches of the river with hydropower developments. Vegetation with a relatively stable and significantly decreasing trend and vegetation with a highly fluctuating and significantly increasing trend are widely dispersed. With respect to the response of vegetation to climate change, about 20–30% of the vegetation has a significant correlation with climatic factors and the correlations in most areas are positive: regions with precipitation as the key influencing factor account for more than 10% of the area; regions with temperature as the key influencing factor account for less than 10% of the area; and regions with precipitation and temperature as the key influencing factors together account for about 5% of the total area. More than 70% of the vegetation has an insignificant correlation with climatic factors.     

基于空间分析与实证的中国农业土地边际收益与全要素生产率研究(英文)

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.     

基于DEA模型的中国城市资源环境效率评价(英文)

本研究以全国地级以上城市为实证数据,试图刻画我国城市资源-环境效率的空间差异并分析影响这一空间格局的主要因素。研究中采用数据包络分析法(DEA),对全国285个城市的资源-环境效率进行了评价。结果表明,城市平均资源-环境效率指数为0.6381,该指数的分解结果表明城市的纯技术效率指数为0.6964,低于规模效率指数0.9225。对城市资源-环境效率影响因素的回归分析结果表明,城市资源-环境效率与城市收入水平呈U形关系。经济增长可以通过三个渠道影响城市的资源-环境效率:规模效应(包括人口规模和城市化水平)、经济结构效应以及空间效应。城市资源-环境效率的提高并不是自然发生的,而需依赖于技术创新和有效管治等手段。因此各级政府、企业和组织必须实施一系列应对措施才能确保城市的高效发展。     

基于DEA和Malmquist指数模型的中国资源型城市效率及其变化(英文)

Employing DEA model and Malmquist productivity index, this paper probes into the urban efficiencies of 24 typical resources-based cities in China and their changes from 2000 to 2008. The research finds that the overall efficiencies of the resources-based cities are just at a general level, and only a few of them reach the optimal level. The scale efficiency is the major determining factor of the achievement of overall efficiency, the effect of which, never-theless, is reducing. From the perspective of classification characteristics, the re-sources-based cities in northeastern region have been in the front rank in terms of overall efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. There is a certain positive correlation between urban population scale and urban efficiency. The analysis of urban efficiency changes shows that the changes in overall efficiency of resources-based cities from 2000 to 2008 had a weak improving tendency. Both the technical change index and productivity change index decreased, indicating that the urban efficiency did not improve during this pe-riod, and the tendency of technical recession and productivity decline was obvious. In terms of the classification of urban efficiency changes, the urban overall efficiency improved in each of the four regions from 2000 to 2008, among which western region witnessed the greatest increase. Cities with different resource types have improved their urban overall efficiencies except steel-based cities. The urban overall efficiency increased in resources-based cities of different scales, with greater improvement in small and medium-sized cities than in big cities.     

Energy production and consumption prediction and their response to environment based on coupling model in China

The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approximates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.     

能源消费、结构变化与空气质量——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

资源和环境约束对我国能源消费提出了严峻挑战。雾霾在一定程度上可以看做是终端能源消费结构性矛盾长期积累的集中爆发。本文借助K-means聚类、空间相关分析等方法,对30个省级单元的终端能源消费量的时空特征及其结构演变进行了系统研究。进一步,运用空间计量模型多角度探讨终端能源消费对环境污染的影响。研究发现：① 从人均终端能源消费量来看,在研究时段内各省级单元均有不同程度提升,但省际差异依然显著。② 从终端能源消费量来看,在研究时段内具有显著的空间正相关性,表明了空间集聚特征的存在,并形成了多种空间集聚类型。③ 从终端能源消费结构来看,由于资源禀赋、产业结构等方面的较大差异,不同省级单元的各类型能源消费结构均呈现出多样化演变特征。④ 通过空间计量模型检验发现,终端能源消费对空气质量指数有显著正向影响,并且,这种影响在不同能源消费结构与不同区域有明显差异性。⑤ 根据研究结论,有针对性地提出能源消费与结构优化的对策建议,以期从能源消费这一视角为减少碳排放、改善空气质量提供思路和参考。     

1978年以来中国能源生产与消费时空差异特征

采用1978年以来近30年中国各地区的能源及经济数据．对中国能源生产、消费重心及GDP重心变化进行了测定。在此基础上分析了中国能源生产、消费与经济发展区域差异的动态变化及其相互关系。结果表明：①能源生产重心在逐步向西南方向移动．整个移动轨迹近似呈直线变化。揭示了中国能源生产在东西和南北方向上的差距有所减小．且东西方向差距减小的速度要比南北方向快。②能源消费重心也在向西南方向移动但波动较大．其中1998-2002年重心位置相对稳定．年度位置变化很小．说明各省区能源消费增长速度基本相同。③GDP重心在经度和纬度上均有一定的波动性。④中国能源生产与消费重心的演变轨迹既具有一些重要的共同特点,也存在明显的不同。通过与GDP重心的对比分析,各地区的经济发展水平与能源消费密切相关．说明中国GDP增长中能源成本较大。     

基于工业结构特征的中国地区能源消费强度差异分析

本文从工业结构演变的角度分析地区能源消费强度差异,利用工业特征偏向指数对地区能源消费强度与工业结构之间的关系进行了定量分析,并通过建立地区能源消费强度影响因素的回归分析模型,重点考察了近几年中国地区工业结构能源消耗特征演变对地区能源消费强度差异的影响。研究表明,近几年来中国工业结构能耗特征的变化,对地区能源消费强度差异有重要影响。在中西部地区发挥资源和成本优势、大规模承接东部沿海地区产业转移的过程中,呈现出中西部地区工业结构高耗能化、东部地区工业结构低耗能化的演进态势,而高耗能的工业结构决定了较高的能源消费强度。政府在制定节能减排政策、进行节能目标分解时,要正确认识中西部地区工业结构演变的客观规律与发展阶段,根据各地区能源消费强度的变化特点,制定有区别的区域节能目标和政策措施。     

中国不同产业空间的碳排放强度与碳足迹分析

采用2007 年中国各省区不同产业各种能源消费等数据,通过构建能源消费碳排放和碳足迹模型,对各省区化石能源和农村生物质能源的碳排放量进行了估算;建立了不同产业空间与能源消费碳排放的对应关系,将产业活动空间分为农业空间、生活与工商业空间、交通产业空间、渔业与水利业空间、其他产业空间等五大类;对各省区不同产业空间碳排放强度和碳足迹进行了对比分析。主要结论如下：(1) 中国2007 年能源消费碳排放总量为1.65 GtC,其中化石能源碳排放占89%;(2) 2007 年中国产业空间碳排放强度为1.98 t/hm²,其中,生活及工商业空间、交通产业空间的碳排放强度较高,分别为55.16 t/hm²和49.65 t/hm²;(3) 2007 年中国产业空间碳足迹为522.34×10⁶ hm²,由此造成的生态赤字为28.69×10⁶ hm²,这说明我国的生产性土地面积不足以补偿产业空间的碳排放,补偿率约为94.5%。各地区碳足迹差异明显,不少省份甚至存在生态盈余。总体而言,从产业活动空间的角度来看,中国目前的碳赤字不大;(4) 全国产业空间单位面积碳足迹为0.63 hm²/hm²,其中生活与工商业空间的碳足迹最大,为17.5 hm²/hm²。不同产业空间单位面积碳足迹大都呈现从东到西逐渐下降的趋势。     

能源消费与气候关系的中美比较研究

应用多项式模型把气候耗能量从能源消费总量中分离出来,用统计分析的方法探讨了中国和美国气候耗能量与气候因子之间的关系及其变化。研究表明:温度是美国近50年来影响气候耗能量的主要气候因子,中国从20世纪50年代到80年代初,旱涝灾害一直是影响中国气候耗能量的主要气候因子,它们之间存在有明显的线性相关关系,自20世纪80年代初以来,随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,旱涝灾害对气候耗能量的影响明显减弱,温度对气候耗能量的影响逐渐增强,如果仅考虑气候耗能量,目前中国的能源消费变化正处于由气象灾害驱动型向温度驱动型的过渡时期。     

陕西省能源消费结构、产业结构演变对碳排放强度的冲击影响分析

基于陕西省1989-2011年能源消费等统计数据,分析能源消费结构、产业结构的演变特征,建立陕西省能源消费结构-产业结构-碳排放强度系统的VAR模型,对该系统的长期和短期动态关系进行实证分析。结果表明:陕西省的发展模式,是能源消费结构长期以高碳能源为主和产业结构长期以高碳产业为主导。能源消费结构与产业结构的变化对陕西省碳排放强度的减小作用初期微弱;从中长期来,两个结构多元化提高的负效应对碳排放强度的增加有长期持久的抑制作用,且能源消费结构演进对碳排放强度的冲击效果始终大于产业结构变化的冲击效果。优化产业结构和调整能源消费结构尤其是提高低碳产业与低碳能源比重是驱动陕西省碳排放强度下降的有效措施。     

基于投入产出表的中国水资源消耗结构路径分析

为了解各部门在生产链中水资源的具体消耗路径和在消耗路径中所发挥的作用以及维持生产链中水资源消耗的关键部门,论文基于2017年投入产出表和相关气象数据,在农业用水中加入绿水资源消耗量,利用投入产出模型和结构路径分析(structural path analysis, SPA)法分析中国42个部门水资源消耗的总量和结构,以及水资源在生产链中消耗的具体路径。结果表明：① 城镇居民消费和进口的水足迹最高,其次为农村居民消费,大多数水足迹较高的部门,都是以居民消费为主,进口水资源弥补了国内部分生产用水的消耗,但水资源短缺的形势仍然严峻;② 生产链前5个层级的水足迹消耗占比为95%左右,其中部门内部消耗占比最大,水足迹随层级数的增加而下降,水资源反馈循环程度较弱;③ 从部门生产链看,部门内部的水足迹占比最大,部门流入和流出水足迹差值较大,部门之间普遍存在单向依赖特征,关联网络不够稳定;④ 从最终消费角度看,农业部门内部水足迹占比最大,是生产链中重要的衔接结点,多样化的消费需求增加上游部门的水资源压力。研究为调整节水政策和提升水资源配置与管理能力提供了一定的理论基础。     

环境规制、FDI与能源消费碳排放峰值预测——以西北五省为例

基于STIRPAT模型,运用情景分析法对西北地区2017—2030年能源消费碳排放进行预测,在高、中、低三种环境规制强度下设定出9种发展模式,以分析环境规制与FDI对能源碳排放峰值的影响。研究表明：（1） 在初始发展情境下,西北地区2030年碳排放总量为70 273.07×10⁴ t,无法实现碳排放达峰目标。（2） 低环境规制背景下,高、高中、高低三种发展模式2030年能源消费碳排放额为73 550.53×10⁴ t、64 881.98×10⁴ t、56 296.96×10⁴ t。（3） 中、高环境规制下,中低、低两种发展模式分别于2025年、2020年达到碳排放峰值,峰值额度为53 447.15×10⁴ t、51 022.68×10⁴ t。能源碳排放强度为0.86 t·（10⁴元）^-1、0.68 t·（10⁴元）^-1,相比较2005年碳排放强度下降48.38%、60.14%。9种发展模式中,仅中低、低两种发展模式能够如期实现碳排放峰值任务,表明严格的环境规制政策能够有效减缓西北地区能源消费碳排放,为促进西北地区碳排放峰值目标如期实现,针对西北地区碳减排工作提出了相应对策建议。