Simulation of ground motion in the Moscow region using the empirical Green’s function

Historically, the Moscow region regularly experienced rather weak but quite perceptible seismic vibrations produced by intermediate-depth earthquakes of the Vrancea zone (Romania), located at a distance of 1400 km from Moscow. The coincidence of a number of unique factors such as a slowly varying focal depth, predominant source mechanisms, weak attenuation of seismic radiation in the north-northeast direction provide favorable conditions for application of the empirical Green’s function method. Using the digital seismogram of the Vrancea Mw-5.8 earthquake recorded at the Moscow seismic station, we simulated synthetic seismograms of a scenario (expected maximum) earthquake with Mw = 8.0, by application of the empirical Green’s function method adjusted for the given conditions. The calculation procedure was verified using analog records of strong earthquakes available at the Moscow seismic station. Digital records of the Obninsk seismic station included in the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) system were used for additional control. Here, the scenario earthquake was modeled using the data on a much stronger earthquake of 1990 (MW = 6.9). It is shown that, despite a certain scatter (quite adequately assessed in the scope of the method), the ultimate estimates of expected seismic impacts are quite reliable and can be recommended for practical use.     

Strong ground motion simulation of the 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake using the empirical Green’s function method

The 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake caused catastrophic damage to the city of Bam and neighboring villages. Given its magnitude (M _w ) of 6.5, the damage was remarkably large. Large-amplitude ground motions were recorded at the Bam accelerograph station in the center of Bam city by the Building and Housing Research Center (BHRC) of Iran. We simulated the Bam earthquake acceleration records at three BHRC strong-motion stations—Bam, Abaraq, and Mohammad-Abad—by the empirical Green’s function method. Three aftershocks were used as empirical Green’s functions. The frequency range of the empirical Green’s function simulations was 0.5–10 Hz. The size of the strong motion generation area of the mainshock was estimated to be 11 km in length by 7 km in width. To estimate the parameters of the strong motion generation area, we used 1D and 2D velocity structures across the fault and a combined source model. The empirical Green’s function method using a combination of aftershocks produced a source model that reproduced ground motions with the best fit to the observed waveforms. This may be attributed to the existence of two distinct rupture mechanisms in the strong motion generation area. We found that the rupture starting point for which the simulated waveforms best fit the observed ones was near the center of the strong motion generation area, which reproduced near-source ground motions in a broadband frequency range. The estimated strong motion generation area could explain the observed damaging ground motion at the Bam station. This suggests that estimating the source characteristics of the Bam earthquake is very important in understanding the causes of the earthquake damage.     

Green’s function of multi-layered poroelastic half-space for models of ground vibration due to railway traffic

This study proposes a Green’s function,an essential representation of water-saturated ground under moving excitation,to simulate ground borne vibration from trains.First,general solutions to the governing equations of poroelastic medium are derived by means of integral transform.Secondly,the transmission and reflection matrix approach is used to formulate the relationship between displacement and stress of the stratified ground,which results in the matrix of the Green’s function.Then the Green’s function is combined into a train-track-ground model,and is verified by typical examples and a field test.Additional simulations show that the computed ground vibration attenuates faster in the immediate vicinity of the track than in the surrounding area.The wavelength of wheel-rail unevenness has a notable effect on computed displacement and pore pressure.The variation of vibration intensity with the depth of ground is significantly influenced by the layering of the strata soil.When the train speed is equal to the velocity of the Rayleigh wave,the Mach cone appears in the simulated wave field.The proposed Green’s function is an appropriate representation for a layered ground with shallow ground water table,and will be helpful to understand the dynamic responses of the ground to complicated moving excitation.     

Application of the radial basis function neural network to the short term prediction of the Earth’s polar motion

By a number of test cases using different sample numbers and sample lengths, we obtain a Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) model that is suitable for the short-term forecast of polar motion, especially for the ultra-short-term forecast. By using the same data sample of Earth’s polar motion, this RBFNN model can achieve better short-term prediction accuracy than the least-squares+autoregressive (LS+AR) method, and better ultra-short-term prediction accuracy than the LS+AR+Kalman method. Using this model to forecast the polar motion data from January 1, 2002 to December 30, 2007 and from January 1, 2010 to December 30, 2016, respectively, experimental results show that the ultra-short-term forecast accuracy of this RBFNN model is within a precision of 3.15 and 3.08 milliseconds of arc (mas) in polar motion x direction, 2.02 and 2.04 mas in polar motion y direction; the short-term forecast accuracy of RBFNN model is within a precision of 8.83 and 8.69 mas in polar motion x direction, and 5.59 and 5.85 mas in polar motion y direction. As is stated above, this RBFNN model is well capable of forecasting the short-term of polar motion, especially the ultra-short-term.     

Broadband strong motion simulation in layered half-space using stochastic Green’s function technique

The stochastic Green’s function method, which simulates one component of the far-field S-waves from an extended fault plane at high frequencies (Kamae et al., J Struct Constr Eng Trans AIJ, 430:1–9, 1991), is extended to simulate the three components of the full waveform in layered half-spaces for broadband frequency range. The method firstly computes ground motions from small earthquakes, which correspond to the ruptures of sub-faults on a fault plane of a large earthquake, and secondly constructs the strong motions of the large earthquake by superposing the small ground motions using the empirical Green’s function technique (e.g., Irikura, Proc 7th Japan Earthq Eng Symp, 151–156, 1986). The broadband stochastic omega-square model is proposed as the moment rate functions of the small earthquakes, in which random and zero phases are used at higher and lower frequencies, respectively. The zero phases are introduced to simulate a smooth ramp function of the moment function with the duration of 1/fc s (fc: the corner frequency) and to reproduce coherent strong motions at low frequencies (i.e., the directivity pulse). As for the radiation coefficients, the theoretical values of double couple sources for lower frequencies and the theoretical isotropic values for the P-, SV-, and SH-waves (Onishi and Horike, J Struct Constr Eng Trans AIJ, 586:37–44, 2004) for high frequencies are used. The proposed method uses the theoretical Green’s functions of layered half-spaces instead of the far-field S-waves, which reproduce the complete waves including the direct and reflected P- and S-waves and surface waves at broadband frequencies. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and results show excellent agreement with the observation records at broadband frequencies. At the same time, the method still needs improvements especially because it underestimates the high-frequency vertical components in the near fault range. Nonetheless, the method will be useful for modeling high frequency contributions in the hybrid methods, which use stochastic and deterministic methods for high and low frequencies, respectively (e.g., the stochastic Green’s function method + finite difference methods; Kamae et al., Bull Seism Soc Am, 88:357–367, 1998; Pitarka et al., Bull Seism Soc Am 90:566–586, 2000), because it reproduces the full waveforms in layered media including not only random characteristics at higher frequencies but also theoretical and deterministic coherencies at lower frequencies.     

Strong ground motion simulation by the Empirical Green��s Function method for Bursa-Yalova Region, Turkey

In this study near field strong ground motion generation of Mw 6.9 scenario events on Gemlik Bay was presented at broadband frequency (0.5–10 Hz) ground motion at 9 stations. In the first stage of the study, focal mechanism of a small earthquake, which was used as the Empirical Green’s Function (EGF) throughout the scenario simulation, was decided by simulating it with a smaller magnitude event. The best waveform fitting was judged with the smallest misfit value. In the second stage, near field ground motion simulation of scenario events was performed. Calculations were achieved by considering three different rupture processes which have the same magnitude but different asperity locations. Fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scaling laws. It has been found that the peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocities reach maximum values of 1,440 cm/s² and 125 cm/s, respectively for the worst case scenario. Rupture directivity effect is observed with clear peaks at a forward station. The design spectra for Turkish seismic design code (TSDC 2007) were either nearly or actually exceeded by the scenario earthquakes at periods lower than 0.6  s at all near field stations. Majority of structures in the area were built to lower design spectra before the 1998 code was implemented. The strength of many structures would have been insufficient to resist the forces that may be generated by an earthquake that is similar to Scenario I and Scenario II in this study.     

A coherency function model of ground motion at base rock corresponding to strike-slip fault

IntroductionEarthquakedamagesurveyandresearchresultshavedemonstratedthatspatialdistributiondifferenceofgroundmotionisoneoftheimportantreasonswhichcausedlongstructure(eglongspanbridge,undergroundpipe)destroy.Thathowtoprovideareasonableinputofgroundmotionfieldforaseismicdesignoflongstructureisaurgentprobleminearthquakeengineeringfield.Atpresent,themethodtostudyspatialvariationofgroundmotionsisadoptingstatisticanalysisbasedondensearrayrecordssuchasSMART-1array,etc,togetcoherencyfunctionofground…     

Analysis on effect of surface fault to site ground motion using finite element method

Dynamic contact theory is applied to simulate the sliding of surface fault.Finite element method is used to analyze the effect of surface fault to site ground motions.Calculated results indicate that amplification effect is obvious in the area near surface fault,especially on the site that is in the downside fault.The results show that the effect of surface fault should be considered when important structure is constructed in the site with surface fault.     

Modeling the strong ground motion and rupture characteristics of the March 31, 2006, Darb-e-Astane earthquake,Iran, using a hybrid of near-field SH-wave and empirical Green’s function method

We analyze the strong motion accelerograms of the moderate (M _w = 6.1), March 31, 2006, Darb-e-Astane earthquake of western Iran and also those of one of its prominently recorded, large (M _w = 5.1) foreshock and (M _w = 4.9) aftershock. (1) Using derived SH-wave spectral data, we first objectively estimate the parameters W _o\mathit{\Omega} _{\rm o} (long period spectral level), f _c (corner frequency) and Q(f) (frequency dependent, average shear wave quality factor), appropriate for the best-fit Brune ω ^− 2 spectrum of each of these three events. We then perform a non-linear least square analysis of the SH-wave spectral data to provide approximate near-field estimates of the strike, dip, and rake of the causative faults and also the seismic moment, moment magnitude, source size, and average stress drop of these three events. (2) In the next step, we use these approximate values and an empirical Green’s function approach, in an iterative manner, to optimally model the strong ground motion and rupture characteristics of the main event in terms of peak ground acceleration/velocity/displacement and duration of ground shaking and thereby provide improved, more reliable estimates of the causative fault parameters of the main event and its asperities. Our near-field estimates for both the main moderate event and the two smaller events are in good conformity with the corresponding far-field estimates reported by other studies.     

工程场地地震动相干函数的数值模拟

在确定性波动有限元分析基础上,结合随机振动分析的虚拟激励原理,可以形成工程场地随机波动分析方法。该方法将随机输入下的波动分析问题转换为多个虚拟激励下的确定性波动分析组合问题,从而可以方便地获得场地波动观测量之间的谱密度矩阵,进而计算给出工程场地的地震动相干函数。本文阐述了随机波动分析的基本原理,提出了该方法的正确性验证标准。将建议方法分别应用于具有一致随机激励与非一致随机激励的复杂工程场地的地震动相干函数分析之中,讨论了受局部场地条件影响的地震动相干函数的若干特征。     

场地条件对地震动相干函数的影响

本通过弹性半空间内位错源的数值解法研究了曲岩地震动相干函数，采用有限元方法分析了一些典型场地的地表地震动相干函数，两的对比结果表明：复杂场地对地震动相干函数的影响强烈。     

基于NNSIM随机有限断层法的7.0级九寨沟地震强地面运动场重建

北京时间2017年8月8日21时19分在四川阿坝州九寨沟县（北纬33.2°、东经103.8°）发生了7.0级地震,作者利用新提出的震源破裂过程控制的NNSIM随机有限断层方法,对震中约100 km范围内强地面运动进行了情景构建,并与研究区范围内的8个强震测震台观测记录进行了加速度、速度、反应谱对比,对比的一致性说明模拟过程中所应用的各种震源参数适合九寨沟7.0地震的近震源强地面运动重建.论文的后半部分基于相同参数模拟了九寨沟7.0级地震的近震源强地面运动场的空间分布,结果显示此次地震强地面运动的PGA、PGV以及反应谱分布均呈现出以震中为圆心的圆形分布,不具有大地震沿断层走向的分布特点.论文最后关于反应谱的讨论,揭示了此次九寨沟县城灾害不重的直接原因.

     

青海玛多M7.4地震中野马滩大桥地震动特征初判

2021年5月22日青海省玛多县发生M7.4地震,造成玛多县境内的野马滩大桥和野马滩2号桥发生落梁破坏.中国地震局公布的地震烈度表明野马滩大桥处的地震烈度为Ⅸ.然而野马滩大桥附近无强震台站,未能记录到大桥附近的加速度时程,这也阻碍了野马滩大桥在地震作用下破坏机理的研究.因此,本文尝试采用经验格林函数方法、并参考医学上自身异位皮肤移植的理念,尝试评估野马滩大桥处的地震动的主要特征[包括地震动峰值加速度(PGA)的可能的取值范围和加速度时程],并与已公布的玛多地震的地震烈度、中国地震烈度表(GB/T17742—2020)、第五代地震动区划图(GB18306—2015)中的设计反应谱进行对比.结果表明:(1)本文得到的PGA的取值范围(320~620 cm/s²)与中国地震烈度表(GB/T17742—2020)中地震烈度为Ⅸ区内的PGA的取值范围(402~830 cm/s²)匹配程度较好;(2)本文合成的地震动反应谱与第五代地震动区划图中,野马滩大桥处的极罕遇地震动的加速度设计反应谱整体匹配较好,表明本文合成的加速度时程可以造成野马滩大桥落梁破坏.研究表明本文给出的野马滩大桥附近的地震动强度特征具备一定的参考价值,可作为野马滩大桥处的加速度时程输入,为研究该桥的坍塌机理提供数据支持.     

Prediction of strong ground motion at EURO-SEISTEST site using the empirical Green's function method

This paper presents some tests on the empirical Green's function method, performed in order to check its effectiveness to predict strong ground motion during future large earthquakes. These investigations basically consist of blind or pseudo-blind tests using part of the data set obtained at the Volvi (Greece) test-site within the framework of the EURO-SEISTEST project. In a first step, a moderate event (M_L=4.1) is simulated by using a small event (M_L=2.5), and taking into account the a priori knowledge of the relevant source parameters (magnitude and stress-drop) for both the base and target events. This check emphasizes the sensitivity of the prediction to the stress-drop values. In a second step, a pseudo-blind prediction is carried out in which the information on the target event is only the magnitude (M_L=5.3) besides the geometrical parameters such as source location, strike and dip. The other important parameters (seismic moment, fault area, stress-drop) are determined on the basis of specific empirical scaling laws derived from several small and moderate events occurring in the area. The synthetic motions are computed for two nearby sites, which are located on the southern edge and in the center of the Mygdonian graben, respectively, and correspond to much different site conditions: weathered rock and thick sediments. They are found in good agreement with the observations, which were unveiled after the simulation. In particular, the amplitude and the phase of the late, local surface waves generated on the southern edge of the graben, are very well reproduced at valley center. Finally, the last step is an attempt to predict strong ground motion for a hypothetical large earthquake of magnitude M_L=6.5. The results are shown to depend very significantly on the scaling laws.     

Ground motion prediction with the empirical Green's function technique: an assessment of uncertainties and confidence level

An assessment of uncertainties for ground motion predictions with the aid of the empirical Green's function (EGF) technique is presented. The main input parameters were identified, and their respective uncertainties were assessed by means of an international expert inquiry. The repercussion of these input uncertainties on the final ground motion estimates were investigated by means of the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. The mean ground motion estimates (response spectra) and their standard deviations were compared with results obtained from empirical attenuation laws. The most sensitive input parameter turned out to be the seismic moment corresponding to the EGF. In general, if the source parameters are well determined, equivalent uncertainties, statistically speaking, can be expected from the EGF technique and from the application of attenuation laws. Therefore, if EGFs with well known source parameters are available, the EGF technique seems to be preferable: site effects are automatically taken into account, and physically realistic acceleration time histories can be obtained. However, further investigations on the reliability of the EGF technique should be performed, and finally, it is recalled that the EGF technique is based on the assumption of linearity. If conditions are such that this assumption cannot be maintained, the EGF technique should be combined with non-linear geotechnical methods.     

地震动空间变化随机描述及相干函数模型研究进展

本研究主要讨论地震动空间变化的随机描述.首先给出了基于密集地震台阵记录估计相干函数的方法,并对计算中需要关注的问题给出了相应的解释;然后对现有的经验和半经验相干函数模型的建立进行了详细的梳理,并对模型在工程应用中的适用性、有效性和局限性进行了讨论;最后通过对比分析不同相干函数模型对场址地震动空间相关性的模拟结果,对相干函数模型的选择提出了建议.     

2018年2月6日花莲M_W6.4地震近场地震动方向性效应

利用中国台湾省内222个强震动台站以及Palert地震预警系统520个台站所观测的三分量加速度记录,研究此次花莲M_W6.4地震近场强地震动空间分布和衰减特征,将观测结果与美国NGA-West2地震动经验预测模型进行对比,揭示此次台湾花莲地震近场地震动的长周期特点,基于回归残差分析研究地震动峰值加速度(PGA)、峰值速度(PGV)和不同周期地震动的空间分布差异,定量考察近场地震动的方向性效应.研究结果表明:(1)整体上此次地震的近场PGV观测值和周期1.0s以上的长周期加速度谱值与美国NGA-West2地震动预测模型结果接近,PGA观测值和周期小于1.0s的加速度反应谱略低于预测模型结果.从空间分布来看,周期1.0s以上的长周期地震动在断层的不同方位有系统性差异,在破裂传播前方(震中西南方位),周期大于1.0s时的反应谱明显高于美国NGA-West2地震动经验预测模型,在破裂传播后方(震中东北方位),周期大于1.0s时的反应谱低于经验预测模型,表明此次地震近场地震动具有显著的方向性效应.(2)破裂传播的方向性效应主要影响周期超过1.0s的长周期,而对PGA以及周期小于1.0s的短周期地震动影响较弱.在破裂传播前方,周期1.0～10.0s的加速度反应谱值被增强到整体观测平均水平的1.16～1.52倍;在破裂传播后方,周期1.0～10.0s的加速度反应谱值被减弱到整体观测平均水平的0.36～0.70倍.(3)此次地震破裂方向性效应的影响表现出明显的窄带效应,破裂方向性的影响(包括破裂传播前方的增强作用和破裂传播后方的减弱作用)在周期T=3.0s时达到最大,在该周期破裂传播前方的增强系数为1.52,破裂传播后方的减弱系数为0.36.从周期T=3.0s到10.0s,破裂方向性效应的影响随周期增大总体上呈减弱趋势,这与2016年日本熊本M_W7.0地震破裂方向性效应的影响特点显著不同.