Adaptive neuro-fuzzy evaluation of wind farm power production as function of wind speed and direction

Wind velocity assumes a critical part for measuring the power created by the wind turbines. Nonetheless, power production from wind has a few weaknesses. One significant issue is that wind is a discontinuous energy source which implies that there exists substantial variability in the generation of vigor because of different variables, for example, wind speed. Wind direction is a significant variable for proficient turbine control for getting the most energy with a given wind speed. Taking into account the conjectures on wind heading, it might be conceivable to adjust the turbine to the wind bearing to get the most energy yield. Since both forecasts of wind speed and direction are basic for effective wind energy collecting it is crucial to develop a methodology for estimation of wind speed and direction and afterwards to estimate wind farm power production as function of wind pace and heading distribution. Despite the fact that various numerical functions have been proposed for demonstrating the wind speed and direction frequency distribution, there are still disadvantages of the models like very demanding in terms of calculation time. In this investigation adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which is a particular sort of the artificial neural networks (ANN) family, was used to anticipate the wind speed and direction frequency dispersion. Thereafter, the ANFIS system was utilized to gauge wind homestead power creation as function of wind velocity and bearing. Neural system in ANFIS modifies parameters of enrollment capacity in the fuzzy logic of the fuzzy inference system. The reenactment outcomes exhibited in this paper demonstrate the adequacy of the created technique.     

Cogitation on developing a dynamic model of soil wind erosion

Studies on soil wind erosion began with single factors affecting soil wind erosion; with increasing quantities of data being accumulated,the wind erosion equation(WEQ),the revised wind erosion equation(RWEQ),the wind erosion prediction system(WEPS),and other soil wind erosion models have been successively established,and great advances have been achieved.Here we briefly review the soil wind erosion research course and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the current soil wind erosion models.From the perspective of the dynamics of wind erosion,we classified the factors affecting soil wind erosion into three categories,namely,wind erosivity factors(WEF),soil antierodibility factors(SAF),and roughness interference factors(RIF).We proposed the concept of a standard plot of soil wind erosion to solve the problem of uncertainty of the soil wind erosion modulus on a spatial scale,and provided methods to set similarity conditions in wind tunnel simulation experiments and to convert the spatial scale of the wind erosion modulus from the standard plot to a large scale field.We also proposed a conceptual model on the basis of the dynamics of soil wind erosion with the theoretical basis that wind produces a shear force on the soil surface.This shear force is partitioned by barely erodible soil surfaces and roughness elements on the ground,and the amount of soil loss by wind should be calculated by comparing the shear force of the wind on barely erodible soil surfaces with the anti-erosion force of the surface soil.One advantage of this conceptual model is that the calculated soil wind erosion modulus is not subject to changes of spatial scale.Finally,we recommended continual improvement of the existing models while also establishing new models.     

合成孔径雷达风场反演变分方案评估

利用合成孔径雷达获取高空间分辨率的海面风场,对于研究沿岸海域大气海洋过程具有重要意义.应用CMOD地球物理模型直接反演风速受先验风向误差影响较大,30°的风向误差可导致高达40%的风速误差.变分方法考虑了雷达观测值及背景风场的不确定性,能够较好地降低先验风向对反演风速的影响.但不同的观测误差或地球物理模型选择会形成不同的变分方案,使得反演风场存在差异.本文基于Sentinel-1合成孔径雷达数据及NDBC浮标数据,对不同变分方案进行了系统评估.试验结果表明,当观测误差选取常值0.1 dB、地球物理模型选取CMOD7时,反演风速均方根误差为1.11 m·s^-1,总体最小;但在特定风速区间内,其他变分方案能获得相对更好的反演精度;各变分方案反演风速精度均显著高于背景风速及CMOD直接反演风速精度,但反演风向相对背景风向没有明显改善.试验结果可为变分方法在不同应用需求下的选择提供参考依据.

     

水体浊度对风速、风向及其时间累积效应的响应——以太湖贡湖湾为例

水体浊度是影响水下光场及营养盐循环的关键要素之一,其变化过程与水生生态环境演变关系密切.基于2015-2016年7个时段于太湖贡湖湾内外的金墅和上山村两站点的水体浊度及东山气象站的逐时风场数据,利用分位统计等方法,探讨了风速、风向及时间累积效应对水体浊度的影响.结果表明：在以风场驱动为主要动力来源的大型浅水湖泊中,春、秋两季水体浊度的变化频率高于夏、冬两季,且春季变率更为突出;冬季风场和水体浊度的变率均较夏季明显.风场（包括风速、风向及其累积时间）是影响水体浊度变化的关键因素.其中风速是主要决定性因子;风向对水体浊度有较明显的影响,其通过对风速效应的修正进而影响水体浊度,该修正作用可用三角函数表征;水体浊度变化同时还受前期风场累积的影响,其前期时间累积效应的有效时段为2~10 h.该研究给出了风速、风向及风场累积效应的耦合对水体浊度的影响模型,有助于弄清风场对水体浊度变化的影响机制.     

山体遮挡对滇池风生流的影响初探

用二维风生流数值模型模拟滇池湖流运动。滇池在主导风向西南风作用下,假定湖面风场是均匀的,数值模拟的湖流流态与实测湖流结果相差很大。而考虑山体遮挡影响,根据实测湖流期间现有的风情资料,在湖面上构造一非均匀风场,数值模拟结果与实测值基本一致。山体遮挡对滇池风生流的影响是不容忽视的。建议进一步进行湖流和湖面风向、风速监测,并建立过山气流数学模型,深入研究山体遮挡对湖泊风生流的影响。     

总体样本风速风向联合概率分析方法

提出了针对总体样本的风速风向联合分布的实用统计分析方法。假定任意给定风向上的风速符合某一概型分布、风向间的关联以风速资料的相对发生频率反映、不同风向间的概型参数及频率分布的变化满足谐波函数,在此基础上,利用风速风向资料的总体样本可以得到一个能够反映任意方向的风速风向联合分布函数。利用澳门地区的百年风资料与某风站连续5年的风速观测记录,对该方法的可行性进行了验证。分析表明,该方法具有一定的适用性,便于结构的抗风可靠性分析,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

大底盘双塔结构风振控制研究分析

大底盘多塔超过一定高度时属于复杂超高限结构,这类结构风工程研究多涉及风洞试验或理论研究,过程复杂且应用局限。以宁夏悦海新天地为工程背景,在ETABS建立悦海新天地双塔模型为风控对象。在空间相关性基础上,以自回归过滤技术模拟10a、50a和100a重现期风压下随机脉动风载。由相关资料确定研究对象最不利风向角,在该风向角下动力输入模拟脉动风载。对双塔结构分塔定义,输出T1和T2两个方向风振响应。结合工程提出在设备层布设5种不同黏滞阻尼器位移增效机构,确定最优安装形式。并对比在设备层以最优安装形式布设黏滞阻尼器位移增效机构、顶层布设多调谐质量阻尼器和混合控制法的减振效果。结果表明:3种风振控制措施均有效衰减结构风致振动,其中混合控制法为优控方案。     

Superposition of aeolian dust ripple patterns as a result of changing wind directions

The effect of a change of wind direction on the orientation (and some other morphometric characteristics) of aeolian dust ripples is investigated. Ripple formation is simulated in a wind tunnel on surfaces that are already characterized by a previously established rippling. The effect of a wind rotation of 45 degrees, 90 degrees, and 180 degrees is examined. It is found that wind rotations of 45 and 180 degrees will lead towards a ripple alignment perpendicular to the last air flow. A wind rotation of 90 degrees, however, leads towards a ripple alignment perpendicular to the resultant wind direction. The faster the wind blows, the more this effect is expressed. No distinct relationship exists between the asymmetry of a dust ripple (and a dust ripple field) and the direction of the wind blowing as the ripples formed. As the orientation and asymmetry of aeolian dust ripples do not necessarily reflect the air flow direction during which the ripples formed, great care should be taken when reconstructing wind directions from such aeolian ripples.     

Selected solar wind parameters at 1 AU through two solar activity cycles

In situ measurements of the solar wind largely cover more than two solar magnetic activity cycles, namely 20 and 21. This is a very appealing opportunity to study the influence of the activity cycle on the behaviour of the solar wind parameters. As a matter of fact, many authors so far have studied this topic comparing the long-term magnetic field and plasma averages. However, when the average values are evaluated on a data sample whose duration is comparable with (or even longer than) the solar rotation period we lose information about the contribution due to the fast and the slow solar wind components. Thus, discriminating in velocity plays a key role in understanding solar cycle effects on the solar wind. Based on these considerations, we performed a separate analysis for fast and slow wind, respectively. In particular, we found that: (a) fast wind carries a slightly larger momentum flux density at 1 AU, probably due to dynamic stream-stream interaction; (b) proton number density in slow wind is more cycle dependent than in fast wind and decreases remarkably across solar maximum; (c) fast wind generally carries a magnetic field intensity stronger than that carried by the slow wind; (d) we found no evidence for a positive correlation between velocity and field intensity as predicted by some theories of solar wind acceleration; (e) our results would support an approximately constant divergence of field lines associated with corotating high-velocity streams.     

巢湖快速变化风浪场及其环境效应

浅水湖泊风浪过程对于湖泊生态系统具有重要的意义.基于巢湖风场、风浪和水环境参数同步高频观测结果,详细分析了快速变化风场下的风浪快速变化特征及其对湖泊水环境的影响特征.浅水湖泊风浪的有效波高和平均波周期均随风速的快速变化有较好的同步响应规律.在风速快速衰减阶段,相较有效波高,波周期有更好的稳定性.湖泊水体pH、水温、溶解氧会快速响应风浪的变化,随着风浪强度增强,对水体浊度、总磷浓度以及藻密度和生物量的扰动影响逐渐呈现.强烈的风浪扰动引起水体浊度变化的滞后时间可达3 d.快速变化的风浪场下,风浪的强烈扰动会改变水体固有的理化参数分布特征,扰动藻类常规的水体分布规律,风浪强度是造成差异的主要因子.     

海陆风及沿海风速廓线在风电场风速预报中的应用

为了建立沿海风功率预报系统,本文探讨了中国沿海风电场风速预报问题,并利用数值模式RAMS对海陆风进行了模拟研究.发现海陆风发生时,海风和陆风阶段风速廓线存在较大差异,海风阶段风速的垂直切变明显小于陆风阶段.海陆风发生时,风速会呈现有规律的变化,即海风和陆风分别有两个时段：风速增加时段和风速减少时段.在为沿海风电场提供风速预报时,当模式预报到海陆风发生时,可以利用海陆风的这种特点,使用统计方法对预报出的风速进行有效的订正.并发现即使没有海陆风发生,当风向为海洋吹向陆地时,风速随高度的垂直切变同样小于陆地吹向海洋的时段.利用统计方法根据不同风向时风速廓线的特性,把数值模式计算高度上的预报结果,精确地插值到风机涡轮高度,会很大程度上减少风速预报的误差及风功率预报环节的误差.     

Topographic change and numerically modelled near surface wind flow in a bowl blowout

A number of studies have measured and numerically modelled near surface wind velocity over a range of aeolian landforms and made suppositions about topographic change and landform evolution. However, the precise measurement and correlation of flow dynamics and resulting topographic change have not yet been fully realized. Here, using repeated high-resolution terrestrial laser scanning and numerical flow modelling within a bowl blowout, we statistically analyse the relationship between wind speed, vertical wind velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and topographic change over a 33-day period. Topographic results showed that erosion and deposition occurred in distinct regions within the blowout. Deposition occurred in the upwind third of the deflation basin, where wind flow became separated and velocity and turbulent kinetic energy decreased, and erosion occurred in the downwind third of the deflation basin, where wind flow reattached and aligned with incident wind direction. Statistical analysis of wind flow and topographic change indicated that wind speed had a strong correlation with overall topographic change and that vertical wind velocity (including both positive and negative) displayed a strong correlation with negative topographic change (erosion). Only weak or very weak correlations exist for wind flow parameters and positive topographic change (accretion). This study demonstrates that wind flow modelling using average incident wind conditions can be utilized successfully to identify regions of overall change and erosion for a complex aeolian landform, but not to identify and predict regions where solely accretion will occur. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用全极化微波辐射计资料反演台风境内海面风场

作为一种新兴的被动遥感技术,全极化微波辐射计不仅可以提供海面风速产品,还可以提供海面风向产品.以往利用全极化微波辐射计观测亮温进行海面风场反演仅在晴空条件下进行,本文通过对观测亮温结合台风区域海面风场的分布特征进行分析,验证了全极化微波辐射计具有在台风等恶劣天气条件下进行海面风场观测的能力.基于敏感性分析实验,确定使用6.8 GHz和10.7 GHz等低频通道组合可进行台风区域内海面风场反演.其中,海面风速反演使用基于统计的多元线性回归算法,同时对海面温度、大气水汽含量、云中液态水含量及降水强度等物理量进行反演计算,为海面风向反演做准备.海面风向反演使用物理统计法进行,借鉴散射计风向反演使用的最大似然估计法.通过在全极化辐射传输前向模型中加入降水对大气透过率的影响、设计第三和第四Stokes通道亮温环境影响修正函数,在实现台风区域内海面风向反演的同时减小了反演误差.通过对“云娜”台风境内海面风场进行数值计算,验证了本文反演算法的可行性,并对反演误差的空间分布特征进行了分析.将2004年各台风过程的海面风场反演结果与散射计风场产品进行对比,海面风速和海面风向反演的均方根误差分别为1.64 m·s-1和18.02°.     

A field experiment on the role of small scale wind gustiness in aeolian sand transport

Estimates of aeolian sand transport generally use an average wind speed to assess the wind energy. To determine if variation in small-scale wind gustiness (on the order of several seconds duration) has a significant effect on sand movement, detailed field measurements were made of wind speed and transport rate. Average wind speed and several gust parameters were derived from the wind data. The results indicate that small-scale gust information does not improve prediction of transport rates.     

脉动风场模拟技术的研究与进展

通过对脉动风场模拟技术近20年来国内外研究成果的总结,阐述了脉动风场模拟研究的发展历程。首先简要介绍了近地风场的特性和脉动风场模拟技术的研究现状,然后从脉动风场模拟技术的研究方法出发,分别介绍了谐波合成法、线性滤波法和小波方法在风场模拟技术中的研究发展现状和所面临的问题,最后对风场模拟技术的未来趋势进行了展望。     

A semi-empirical wind set-up forecasting model for Lake Champlain

The precision of Lake Champlain's water level estimation is a key component in the flood forecasting process for the Richelieu River. Hydrological models do not typically take into consideration the effects of the wind on the water level (also known as the wind set-up). The objective of this study is to create an empirical wind set-up forecast model for Lake Champlain during high wind events. The proposed model uses wind speed and direction across the Lake, as well as wind gusts as inputs. The model is calibrated to a subset of observations and evaluated on an independent sample, considering four wind speed bins. It is tested and compared to a variant of the Zuider Zee equation on 20 wind set-up events that occurred between 2017 and 2019 using hindcast data from five different numerical weather prediction systems (GDPS, RDPS, HRDPS, NOAA and ECMWF). A quantile mapping-based forecast calibration scheme is implemented for each of the forecast products to correct their biases. Results show that events are successfully predicted by the proposed model at least 72 h in advance. These results are better than the other comparative models found in the literature and tested herein. Overall, significant improvements are obtained by including wind speed and wind gusts from different weather stations.     

Very short-term spatio-temporal wind power prediction using a censored Gaussian field

Wind power is a renewable energy resource, that has relatively cheap installation costs and it is highly possible that will become the main energy resource in the near future. Wind power needs to be integrated efficiently into electricity grids, and to optimize the power dispatch, techniques to predict the level of wind power and the associated variability are critical. Ideally, one would like to obtain reliable probability density forecasts for the wind power distributions. We aim at contributing to the literature of wind power prediction by developing and analysing a spatio-temporal methodology for wind power production, that is tested on wind power data from Denmark. We use anisotropic spatio-temporal correlation models to account for the propagation of weather fronts, and a transformed latent Gaussian field model to accommodate the probability masses that occur in wind power distribution due to chains of zeros. We apply the model to generate multi-step ahead probability predictions for wind power generated at both locations where wind farms already exist but also to nearby locations.     

超高层建筑周围风场特性实测研究

为探究超高层建筑周围风场特性,以天津高银117大厦为例,通过DZZ2型采集系统进行现场实测,对该大厦周围的平均风速、脉动风速、湍流强度、湍流积分尺度、Von Karman谱等风场特性进行分析.结果表明:顺风向及横风向脉动风速变化规律不服从标准高斯分布;顺风向及横风向湍流强度与平均风速呈负相关,且其变化程度与平均风速范围...     

Pulsatory characteristics of wind velocity in sand flow over typical underlying surfaces

Pulsatory characteristics of wind velocity in sand flow over Gobi and mobile sand surface have been investigated experimentally in the wind tunnel. The primary goal of this paper is to reveal the relation- ship between pulsatory characteristics of instantaneous wind speed in sand flow and the motion state of sand grains. For a given underlying surface, pulsation of wind velocities in sand flow on different heights has a good correlation. As the space distance among different heights increases, fluctuation of instantaneous wind speed presents a decreasing trend and its amplitude is closely related to the mo- tion state of sand grains and their transport. Pulsatory intensity increases with the indicated wind speed, but its relative value does not depend on it, only agrees with height.     

Wind flow and wind loads on the surface of a towershaped building: Numerical simulations and wind tunnel experiment

Flow structure and wind pressure distribution caused by obtuse obstacles are usually the focuses in Computational Wind Engineer researches (CWE). By solving the non-hydrostatical dynamic equations, PUMA model (Peking University Model of Atmospheric Environment) was developed and applied to simulating the flow structure and wind pressure distribution around a tower-shaped building. Evaluation about the wind environment and wind loads around the building was obtained through the analysis of the numerical simulation results and wind tunnel data. Comparisons between the simulation and wind tunnel study indicate that numerical simulation results agree well in the flow field and wind pressure distribution around the tower-shaped building. On the other hand, the horizontal grid interval of 2 m and the vertical grid of 3 m were still too crude to simulate the flow structure and wind pressure distribution on the building surface more exactly in detail; and the absence of suitable pressure perturbation parameterization scheme between the solid and the adjacent space also limits the accuracy of the numerical simulation. The numerical simulation model can be used to evaluate the wind environment and wind load around high buildings.