Upper oceanic response to tropical cyclone Phailin in the Bay of Bengal using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

A numerical simulation of very severe cyclonic storm ‘Phailin’, which originated in southeastern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and propagated northwestward during 10–15 October 2013, was carried out using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. A Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) was used to make exchanges of fluxes consistent between the atmospheric model ‘Weather Research and Forecasting’ (WRF) and ocean circulation model ‘Regional Ocean Modelling System’ (ROMS) components of the ‘Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport’ (COAWST) modelling system. The track and intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin simulated by the WRF component of the coupled model agrees well with the best-track estimates reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Ocean model component (ROMS) was configured over the BoB domain; it utilized the wind stress and net surface heat fluxes from the WRF model to investigate upper oceanic response to the passage of TC Phailin. The coupled model shows pronounced sea surface cooling (2–2.5 °C) and an increase in sea surface salinity (SSS) (2–3 psu) after 06 GMT on 12 October 2013 over the northwestern BoB. Signature of this surface cooling was also observed in satellite data and buoy measurements. The oceanic mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals relative roles of different oceanic processes in controlling the mixed layer temperature over the region of observed cooling. The heat budget highlighted major contributions from horizontal advection and vertical entrainment processes in governing the mixed layer cooling (up to ?0.1 °C h^?1) and, thereby, reduction in sea surface temperature (SST) in the northwestern BoB during 11–12 October 2013. During the post-cyclone period, the net heat flux at surface regained its diurnal variations with a noontime peak that provided a warming tendency up to 0.05 °C h^?1 in the mixed layer. Clear signatures of TC-induced upwelling are seen in vertical velocity (about 2.5 × 10^?3 m s^?1), rise in isotherms and isohalines along 85–88° E longitudes in the northwestern BoB. The study demonstrates that a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (WRF + ROMS) serves as a useful tool to investigate oceanic response to the passage of cyclones.     

The future projection of cyclones in Bay of Bengal: a study using coupled ocean atmosphere model

Ocean Dynamics - In this study, the behaviour of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in future climatic conditions is analysed with the help of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The weather research and...     

Observed oceanic response to tropical cyclone Jal from a moored buoy in the south-western Bay of Bengal

Upper oceanographic and surface meteorological time-series observations from a moored buoy located at 9.98°N, 88°E in the south-western Bay of Bengal (BoB) were used to quantify variability in upper ocean, forced by a tropical cyclone (TC) Jal during November 2010. Before the passage of TC Jal, salinity and temperature profiles showed a typical BoB post-monsoon structure with relatively warm (30 °C) and low-saline (32.8 psu) waters in the upper 30- to 40-m layer, and relatively cooler and higher salinity (35 psu) waters below. After the passage of cyclone, an abrupt increase of 1 psu (decrease of 1 °C) in salinity (temperature) in the near-surface layers (up to 40-m depth) was observed from buoy measurements, which persisted up to 10–12 days during the relaxation stage of cyclone. Mixed layer heat budget analysis showed that vertical processes are the dominant contributors towards the observed cooling. The net surface heat flux and horizontal advection together contributed approximately 33 % of observed cooling, during TC Jal forced stage. Analysis showed the existence of strong inertial oscillation in the thermocline region and currents with periodicity of ～2.8 days. During the relaxation stage of the cyclone, upward movement of thermocline in near-inertial frequencies played significant role in mixed layer temperature and salinity variability, by much freer turbulent exchange between the mixed layer and thermocline.     

Relationship between equatorial pressure oscillations and tropical cyclones landing over China

With daily reanalysis data by NCEP/NCAR and data of tropical cyclones landing over China from 1949 to 2005, the variation of low-frequency oscillations of equatorial pressure and their relationship with tropical cyclones landing over China in the summer half of the years (June through October) are studied for the 57 years, using spectral analysis and correlation analysis. The results show that the summertime equatorial pressure is mainly of periodic oscillations of 5―7 days and 10―30 days and the interannual variation of the intensity of its quasi-biweekly oscillation is significantly positive correlation with the number of tropical cyclones landing over China. The quasi-biweekly oscillation is filtered from daily equatorial pressure in May―November over the 57 years with inverse wavelet transform and the probability for tropical cyclones landing on coastal China within four days before and after the oscillatory valleys of quasi-biweekly pressure at the equator is 59.7% and 73.0% for June to October and July to September respectively. The model of atmospheric circulation for quasi-biweekly oscillatory valleys of equatorial pressure in association with or without tropical cyclones landing over China in July―September is set up with the composite analysis method. When the valleys are associated with (without) landfall, zonal (meridional) circulation prevails in the mid and high latitudes of the Eastern Hemisphere, the high pressure ridge is weak (strong) near the Sea of Okhotsk, the westerly zone is northward (southward), the subtropical high is westward (eastward) in location and strong (weak) in intensity, the cross-equatorial flow is strong (weak) in southeast Asia, Southwest Monsoon is strong (weak) and stronger (weaker) while in the valleys of pressure, being favorable (unfavorable) for tropical cyclones landing over China. The atmospheric circulation model for oscillatory valleys of biweekly equatorial pressure in association with (without) tropical cyclones landing over China, which can reflect the difference of atmospheric circulation between them, is beneficial to medium-term forecasts of tropical cyclones landing over China.     

Submesoscale features and their interaction with fronts and internal tides in a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model of the Bay of Bengal

Large freshwater fluxes into the Bay of Bengal by rainfall and river discharges result in strong salinity fronts in the bay. In this study, a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model with comprehensive physics is used to model the weather, ocean circulation, and wave field in the Bay of Bengal. Our objective is to explore the submesoscale activity that occurs in a realistic coupled model that resolves mesoscales and allows part of the submesoscale field. Horizontal resolution in the atmosphere varies from 2 to 6 km and is 13 km for surface waves, while the ocean model is submesoscale permitting with resolutions as high as 1.5 km and a vertical resolution of 0.5 m in the upper 10 m. In this paper, three different cases of oceanic submesoscale features are discussed. In the first case, heavy rainfall and intense downdrafts produced by atmospheric convection are found to force submesoscale currents, temperature, and salinity anomalies in the oceanic mixed layer and impact the mesoscale flow. In a second case, strong solitary-like waves are generated by semidiurnal tides in the Andaman Sea and interact with mesoscale flows and fronts and affect submesoscale features generated along fronts. A third source of submesoscale variability is found further north in the Bay of Bengal where river outflows help maintain strong salinity gradients throughout the year. For that case, a comparison with satellite observations of sea surface height anomalies, sea surface temperature, and chlorophyll shows that the model captures the observed mesoscale eddy features of the flow field, but in addition, submesoscale upwelling and downwelling patterns associated with ageostrophic secondary circulations along density fronts are also captured by the model.     

Geostrophic balance over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal regions

Geostrophic balance over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal regions has been studied using the wind data obtained from the AVRO (HS-748) aircraft during the FGGE-MONEX-79.In the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal regions, the observed wind south of 20°N was found to be sub-geostrophic. In the Arabian Sea region the departure at 1500 m was 75–95% and at 3050 m it was 60–65%. In the Bay of Bengal region the departure was 85–95%. In a few cases north of 20°N the observed winds at 3050 m were found to be super-geostrophic in the regions of enhanced monsoon activity, cyclonic circulation reaching up to 6000 m and in the region of monsoon trough.     

An application of the LTP＿DSEF model to heavy precipitation forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones over China in 2018

Recently, a track-similarity-based Dynamical-Statistical Ensemble Forecast(LTP_DSEF) model has been developed in an attempt to predict heavy rainfall from Landfalling Tropical cyclones(LTCs). In this study, the LTP_DSEF model is applied to predicting heavy precipitation associated with 10 LTCs occurring over China in 2018. The best forecast scheme of the model with optimized parameters is obtained after testing 3452 different schemes for the 10 LTCs. Then, its performance is compared to that of three operational dynamical models. Results show that the LTP_DSEF model has advantages over the three dynamical models in predicting heavy precipitation accumulated after landfall, especially for rainfall amounts greater than 250 mm. The model also provides superior or slightly inferior heavy rainfall forecast performance for individual LTCs compared to the three dynamical models. In particular, the LTP_DSEF model can predict heavy rainfall with valuable threat scores associated with certain LTCs, which is not possible with the three dynamical models. Moreover, the model can reasonably capture the distribution of heavier accumulated rainfall, albeit with widespread coverage compared to observations. The preliminary results suggest that the LTP_DSEF model can provide useful forecast guidance for heavy accumulated rainfall of LTCs despite its limited variables included in the model.     

On the rapid weakening of super-cyclone Amphan over the Bay of Bengal

Ocean Dynamics - This study investigates the rapid weakening of super-cyclone Amphan (2020) over the Bay of Bengal. Shortly after reaching its super-cyclone status, Amphan experienced rapid...     

孟加拉湾夏季风爆发的判断指标及其年际特征

利用高低层大气环流、OLR（向外长波辐射）、CMAP降水、SST（海表温度）等资料分析了孟加拉湾地区3—5月多年气候平均大气环流及不同要素的演变特征,定义了一个新的孟加拉湾夏季风（BOBSM,下同）爆发指标为孟加拉湾地区（5°N—15°N,90°E—97.5°E）850 hPa和200 hPa纬向风区域平均的变化同时满足U850 > 3 m·s^-1和U200 < -5 m·s^-1,并持续5天的第一天即作为BOBSM爆发日期.该季风指数有明确的天气学意义,可以反映孟加拉湾低层西南风持续稳定和南亚高压在青藏高原建立早晚的特征.文章进一步分析了BOBSM爆发的年际特征及其前兆海洋信号特征,结果表明：1981—2010年BOBSM爆发的平均日期为5月10日,季风爆发有显著的年际波动,爆发最早在1999年（4月11日）和最晚在1968年（6月1日）,年代际尺度上表现为由爆发偏晚至偏早的变化趋势;BOBSM爆发早（晚）与热带印度洋地区850 hPa的越赤道气流和西风异常加强（减弱）,以及200 hPa青藏高原南亚高压的季节性建立偏早（晚）等密切联系;前期冬季赤道西太平洋的海温冷（暖）变化对BOBSM爆发早（晚）有很好的指示意义,前期冬季海温偏高（低）有利于季风偏早（晚）,其影响的主要途径是通过热源变化激发纬向垂直环流及其热带印度洋和太平洋低层环流异常,进而影响季风爆发早晚.

     

Correlation between tropical cyclones and magnetic storms during cycle 23 of solar activity

The correlation between cyclic (11-year) variations in geomagnetic activity and tropical cyclogenesis during the completed solar activity cycle (cycle 23, 1996–2006) is studied. The total number of the semidiurnal intervals, with the mean values of the planetary a _p index not less than 40, for each year and the annual number of cyclones, regardless of their intensity, are used as the characteristics. The correlation coefficients r are calculated for each of the following four cyclogenesis regions: the Atlantic, northeastern and central Pacific, northwestern Pacific, and water areas of oceans and seas in the Southern Hemisphere. The conclusion that the correlation exists between magnetic storms and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, obtained earlier by Ivanov [2006] on the basis of the data for 1996–2005, is confirmed. It has been found that the linear correlation coefficient r changed in different regions from positive to negative values: 0.55, 0, ?0.50, and ?0.50, respectively.     

Internal waves over the shelf in the western Bay of Bengal: a case study

Generation and propagation of internal waves (IWs) in the coastal waters of the extended shelf of the western Bay of Bengal are investigated for late winter by using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm). The model is forced with astronomical tides and daily winds. Monthly climatological temperature and salinity fields are used as initial conditions. The simulations are compared with time series observations of temperature and currents from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) moored at three locations south of Gopalpur: two at a local depth of 100 m and another at 400-m depth during 19–21 February 2012. The comparison of the spectral estimates for the time series of temperature from the model and observations are in reasonable agreement for the near-tidal frequency waves. The peak of temperature spectra is always found near the shelf break region which steadily lost its intensity over the continental shelf. The calculation of Richardson number reflected the presence of local mixing due to density overturning in the shelf region. To understand further the generation and propagation of internal tides in the region, energy flux and conversion of barotropic-to-baroclinic M₂ tidal energy are examined. The model simulations suggest that the internal tide is generated all along the shelf slope. The energy flux analysis shows that the internal tides propagate to either side of the generation sites.     

A comparison of numerical simulations of eddy generation performed with a two- and a three-layer quasi-geostrophic model of oceanic mesoscale eddies

Abstract

The generation of eddies by a large-scale flow over mesoscale topography is studied with the help of two- and three-layer nonlinear quasi-geostrophic models of the open ocean. The equations are integrated forward in time with no eddies present initially. For a given time, the displacement of the interface between layers two and three (ζ) tends to a well-defined limit (function of the horizontal spatial coordinates) as ρ ₃ - ρ ₂ → 0 (ρ_r is the density of layer r). Even for values of α[= (ρ ₃ - ρ ₂)/(ρ ₂ - ρ ₁)] ^as small as 0.01 the potential energy due to ζ is not negligible and it can reach, in some cases, a considerable fraction of the total eddy energy.     

Simulations of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal Using RIMES Operational System

The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), an international, intergovernmental organization based in Thailand is engaged in disaster risk reduction over the Asia–Pacific region through early warning information. In this paper, RIMES’ customized Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model has been used to evaluate the simulations of cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar on 2 May 2008, the most deadly severe weather event in the history of Myanmar. The model covers a domain of 35oE to 145oE in the east—west direction and 12oS to 40oN in the north—south direction in order to cover Asia and east Africa with a resolution of 9?km in the horizontal and 28 vertical levels. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1o lon/lat resolution. An attempt is being made to critically evaluate the simulation of cyclone Nargis by seven set of simulations in terms of track, intensity and landfall time of the cyclone. The seven sets of model simulations were initialized every 12?h starting from 0000 UTC 28 April to 01 May 2008. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) precipitation (mm) is used to evaluate the performance of the simulations of heavy rainfall associated with the tropical cyclone. The track and intensity of the simulated cyclone are compared by making use of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data sets. The results indicate that the landfall time, the distribution and intensity of the rainfall, pressure and wind field are well simulated as compared with the JTWC estimates. The average landfall track error for all seven simulations was 64?km with an average time error of about 5?h. The average intensity error of central pressure in all the simulations were found out to be approximately 6?hPa more than the JTWC estimates and in the case of wind, the simulations under predicted it by an average of 12?m?s^?1.     

A vortex-tube model of eddies in the inertial range

Abstract

A vortex-tube geometry of the cascade of energy to small-scale eddies, in the inertial range of fully-developed turbulence, is proposed. The model is a special case of the beta model of Frisch, Sulem and Nelkin (1978). We require that the cascade conserve the principal invariants of inviscid, incompressible flow, namely volume, topological knottedness, circulation, and, at discrete times marking the termination of steps in the cascade, energy. The process terminates in a finite time, as in any beta model, leaving behind a self-similar network of “inactive” tubes. We associate a self-similar scaling dimension D with the structure, equal to the Hausdorff dimension of the set of “active” tubes at the termination of the cascade. Because circulation Λ plays a key role in the analysis of the cascade, we refer to these vortex-tube geometries as “gamma models”. The viewpoint throughout is entirely deterministic.

We describe two examples of gamma models. In the ring geometry, an eddy is a vortex ring, and the cascade produces “rings upon rings”, so we allow cutting and fusing of tubes while conserving total helicity. In the preferred helical model, no cutting is needed, and the cascade produces an infinite progression of braided “coils upon coils”. We suggest that latter geometry as a candidate for the topology of a singularity of the inviscid limit of a Navier-Stokes flow, when modeled by discrete vortex tubes.

A crucial ingredient of a gamma model, not explicitly present in a beta model, is the possibility of “splitting” a vortex tube into sub-tubes carrying smaller circulation. We suggest a dynamical basis for this process, as an instability of tubes whose cores violate the Rayleigh criterion.

The parameters describing a gamma model are not uniquely determined by our study, but there is a “simplest” helical gamma model, involving minimal splitting and distortion of tubes. The dimension D of the structure is 13/5, with a scale factor Λ = 2^?5/4. This value of D agrees with that suggested by Hentschel and Procaccia (1982), by analogy with established results for certain branched polymers.     

风应力桥梁作用下热带太平洋和热带大西洋相互作用的数值试验

利用中等复杂程度热带大气和海洋模式研究了热带太平洋和大西洋SST通过风应力桥梁的相互作用.利用1958～1998年NCEP分析的海表面温度场（SST）强迫大气模式得到的表面风应力与NCEP分析的同期热通量共同驱动海洋模式,作为控制试验;和控制试验平行,但强迫大气模式的SST在某一海盆取为多年气候平均值的试验作为敏感性试验;比较控制试验与敏感性试验模拟,则可反映风应力桥梁作用下热带某海盆SST异常对其他海盆的影响.结果表明,热带某一海盆SST暖（冷）异常总是引起局地海盆表面西部西（东）风异常和东部东（西）风异常;热带太平洋SST暖（冷）异常导致的该海盆东部表面东（西）风异常可以扩展到热带大西洋,从而导致热带大西洋SST冷（暖）异常;热带大西洋SST暖（冷）异常导致的该海盆西部表面西（东）风异常可以扩展到热带太平洋,从而导致热带太平洋SST暖（冷）异常.     

On the oceanic impact of a data-assimilation method in a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model

 Based on the Kalman filter theory, a new data-assimilation method has been used to improve the 3-D oceanic temperature field of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled general circulation model. This method is applied to assimilate surface and subsurface temperature of in situ measurements from the Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic project (PIRATA). The assimilation of the PIRATA data produces an improved representation of the thermal state of the ocean and allows a better estimation of other oceanographic quantities, like meridional heat fluxes and zonal currents. The present paper focuses on the tropical Atlantic and, in particular, it contains new reconstructed temperature profiles. One-month forecast experiments during 1999 were performed and the impact of the assimilation is discussed. Received: 24 April 2001 / Accepted: 8 March 2002     

Spectral peak wave period climatology and its relationship with natural climate variability over the Bay of Bengal

Ocean Dynamics - The predominance of swells or wind-seas at a location can be inferred from the spectral peak wave period (Tp). The present study examines the climatology of Tp and its variability...     

利用CloudSat卫星资料分析热带气旋的结构特征

利用2006—2010年的CloudSat热带气旋过境数据集资料,定量分析了大西洋地区飓风的云、降水和热力结构在不同演变阶段内的分布特征,结果表明:雷达反射率的发生概率以5 km高度为"拐点"呈现不同的分布特点,且成熟阶段的回波强度明显大于发展和消亡阶段.各径向环内深对流云发生概率始终最大,积云和雨层云始终最小.冰水含量的最大值位于内核区且沿径向不断减小,有效粒子半径和分布宽度参数随高度减小而粒子数浓度却增大.温度距平在距离中心200 km以内随飓风演变不断增大,而200 km以外始终较小.各阶段8 km以下存在湿心区,而其上方正好对应暖心区.内核区发展阶段存在近饱和区而成熟和消亡阶段存在向外倾斜的未饱和区.各阶段不同径向环内4 km以上主要为稳定层结而4 km以下的层结特性各异,且假相当位温沿径向逐渐减小.     

Effects of cyclonic mesoscale eddies on the marine ecosystem in the Kuroshio Extension region using an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biological model

Effects of mesoscale eddies on the marine ecosystem in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region are investigated using an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biological model. The model captures the seasonal and intra-seasonal variability of chlorophyll distribution associated with the mesoscale eddies, front variability, Kuroshio meanders, and upwelling. The model also reproduces the observed interannual variability of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) in the KE region along a zonal band of 32–34°N from 2002 to 2006. The distribution of high surface chlorophyll corresponds to low SSHA. Cyclonic eddies are found to detach from the KE jet near 150°E and 158°E and propagate westward. The westward propagating cyclonic eddies lift the nutrient-rich thermocline into the euphotic zone and maintain high levels of chlorophyll in summer. In the subsurface layer, the pattern in chlorophyll is influenced by both lateral and vertical advection. In winter, convection inside the eddy entrains high levels of nutrients into the mixed layer, increasing production, and resulting in high chlorophyll concentration throughout the surface mixed layer. There is significant interannual variability in both the cyclonic eddy activity and the surface phytoplankton bloom south of the KE jet, although whether or not there is a causal link is unclear.