Extreme hydrological events,palaeo-information and climate change

Abstract

Extreme flood events have been and continue to be one of the most important natural hazards responsible for deaths and economic losses. Extreme floods result in direct destructive effects during the time of the event, and they also may be followed by a related chain of indirect calamities such as famines and epidemics that produce additional damages and suffering. Extreme hydrological events that have occurred in the historical past may also occur in the future. Knowledge about magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of past extreme hydrological events in most regions are too short to adequately evaluate potential magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events. Stationary climate in which the mean and variance do not change over time is a basic underlying assumption of standard methodological procedures for estimating recurrence probabilities of extreme hydrological events. Palaeo-archives contained in river and lake sediments, fossil plant and animal matter, ice layers, and other natural archives show that the assumption of stationary climate is not valid when the time scale is extended beyond centuries and millennia. Records of past extreme floods that occurred long before the period of instrumentation can be reconstructed from the distribution of slackwater flood deposits or from derivation of water depths competent to transport the largest rocks found in flood deposited sediment. Palaeoflood records reconstructed from the Upper Mississippi and Lower Colorado River systems in the United States confirm nonstationary behaviour of the mean and variance in hydrological time series. These stratigraphic records have shown that even very modest climatic changes have resulted in very important changes in the magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme floods. A close relationship was found between the palaeo-flood record of extreme floods in the Upper Mississippi River system and a palaeo-record of stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon preserved in speleothem calcite from a local cave. The relationship suggests that isotopic records elsewhere might be calibrated to provide insight about how future potential climate changes might impact extreme flood magnitudes and recurrence frequencies there. Atmospheric global circulation models (GCMs) mainly simulate average climatic conditions and are presently inadequate sources of information about how future climate changes might be represented at the extreme event scale. Palaeo-flood archives, however, provide basic information about how magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events responded to past climate changes and they also provide a reference base against which GCM simulations can be calibrated regionally and be better interpreted to decipher hydrological information at the extreme event scale.     

Extreme rainfall events over the Himalayas between 1871 and 2007

Abstract

Currently there is much discussion regarding the impact of climate change and the vagaries of the weather, in particular extreme weather events. The Himalayas form the main natural water resource of the major river systems of the Indian region. We present a brief review of the available information and data for extreme rainfall events that were experienced in different sectors of the Himalayas during the last 137 years (1871–2007). Across the entire Himalayas, from east to west, there are now 822 rainfall stations. There was an increase in the rainfall station network from 1947 onwards, especially in the Nepal and Bhutan Himalayas. Extreme one-day rainfall has been picked out for each station irrespective of the period for which data are available. The decadal distribution of these extreme one-day rainfalls shows that there is a considerable increase in the frequencies during the decades 1951–1960 to 1991–2000, whereas there is a sudden decrease in the frequencies in the present decade during 2001–2007, indicating the need to understand the response of the systems to global change and the associated physical and climatological changes. This is essential in terms of preserving this natural resource and to encourage environmental management and sustainable development of mountain regions.

Citation Nandargi, S. & Dhar, O. N. (2011) Extreme rainfall events over the Himalayas between 1871 and 2007. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 930–945.     

Sediment variability and bed material sampling in gravel-bed rivers

In a 350 m wide reach of the braided, gravel-bed Ashley River, the surface layer of the bed material was sampled in 141 areas of homogeneous graded sediment along seven cross-sections, and 30 kg bulk samples were collected at 86 randomly selected locations along the cross-sections. At one location, a single 854 kg sample composed of 28 subsamples was also collected. Analysis of the single large sample indicate that accurate determination of mean grain size D at that site requires, desirably, a sample of ～ 100 kg, but that samples in which the weight of the largest stone is less than 5 per cent of the total weight have unbiased estimates of D. Spatial variability of bulk material is such that 228 and 50 samples are needed to estimate D to ± 10 and ± 20 per cent respectively of the true value; requirements for estimating inclusive graphic standard duration are only 11 and 3 respectively. The grain-size distribution of the surface layer is only weakly related to the bulk material beneath. The results of ‘Wolman sampling’ along 12 cross-sections at two pace intervals (average 120 stones per cross-section) indicate that estimation of overall surface D to ±10 and ±20 per cent would require sampling along 64 and 14 cross-sections respectively. It is concluded that accurate characterization of bed sediment in gravel-bed rivers is very demanding of labour and resources, and that careful planning is needed to ensure efficiency and meaningful results.     

Extreme precipitation events in East China and associated moisture transport pathways

Interannual variation of summer precipitation in East China, and frequency of rainstorms during the monsoon season from 1961 to 2010, are analyzed in this study. It is found that the two variables show opposite trends on a decadal time scale: frequency of rainstorms increases significantly after the 1990s, while summer precipitation in East China decreases during the same period. Analysis of the spatial distribution of summer rainstorm frequency from 1961 to 2010 indicates that it decreases from the southeast to the northwest at the east edge of the large-scale topography associated with the plateaus. Spatial distribution of rainstorms with daily rainfall greater than 50 mm is characterized by a “high in the southeast and low in the northwest” pattern, similar to the staircase distribution of the topography. However, the spatial distribution of variation in both summer precipitation and frequency of extreme rainstorms under global warming differs significantly from the three-step staircase topography. It is shown that moisture characteristics of summer precipitation and extreme rainstorms during the monsoon season in East China, including moisture transport pathways, moist flow pattern, and spatial structure of the merging area of moist flows, differ significantly. Areas of frequent rainstorms include the Yangtze River Valley and South China. Column- integrated moisture transport and its spatial structure could be summarized as a “merging” of three branches of intense moist flows from low and middle latitude oceans, and “convergence” of column-integrated moisture fluxes. The merging area for moist flow associated with rainstorms in the high frequency region is located slightly to the south of the monsoonal precipitation or non-rainstorm precipitation, with significantly strong moisture convergence. In addition, the summer moist flow pattern in East China has a great influence on the frequency of extreme rainstorms. Moisture flux vectors in the region of frequent rainstorms correspond to vortical flow pattern. A comparison of moisture flux vectors associated with non-rainstorms and rainstorms indicates that the moist vortex associated with rainstorms is smaller in size and located to the south of the precipitation maximum, while the moist vortex associated with non-rainstorms is larger and located to the north. It is shown that column- integrated moist transport vortices and the structure of moist flux convergence have significant impacts on the north-south oscillation of frequent rainstorm areas in East China, which is synchronized with the maximum vorticity of moisture transport and the minimum of convergence on the decadal time scale. Synthesis of moisture transport pathways and related circulation impacts leads to a conceptual model of moisture flow associated with rainstorms.     

Extreme wave event along the Guyana coastline in October 2005

The objective of the research is to analyze in detail the causes and consequences of the unusual event at the coast of Guyana (South America) during October 16–19, 2005. Several sea defense structures were damaged and flooding of low-lying areas occurred. A data analysis of offshore wave and water level characteristics shows an abrupt change in wave direction from east to almost north on October 16, 2005 and a sudden increase in the offshore peak period up to extreme values. The offshore significant wave height was also relatively high, and these wave characteristics coincided with springtide conditions. The long-wave periods and the sharp transition in wave direction indicate that this event is associated with swell waves generated by a depression far away. An analysis of hurricanes and depressions reveals that a severe depression in the Northern Atlantic Ocean during October 11–15 was the origin of this swell event. Numerical computations with SWAN have been carried out to investigate the propagation of the offshore wave characteristics towards the shoreline. The SWAN model includes wave damping due to the presence of soft mud deposits. A calibration of the parameters has been carried out using joint offshore and onshore wave data from November 2006. The numerical simulations of the event in October 2005 clearly demonstrate that the mud banks damp the wave heights, but have almost no effect on the peak period. The resulting waves at the steep sea walls can be classified as surging waves causing severe runup and overtopping. The obtained insights are translated into practical recommendations for the Guyana Sea and River Defence Division in Guyana to build a sustainable management and maintenance of the sea defenses in the future.     

Insight into variability of spring and flash flood events in Lithuania

In this research, variability of spring (from 1 March to 30 May) and flash (from 1 June to 30 November) floods in rivers of different regions was analysed. The territory of Lithuania is divided into three regions according to hydrological regime of the rivers: Western, Central, and Southeastern. The maximum river discharge data of spring and flash floods [a total of 31 water gauging stations (WGS)] were analysed. Comparison of the data of four periods (1922–2013, 1941–2013, 1961–2013, and 1991–2013) with the data of the reference period (1961–1990) was performed. Analysis included the longest discharge data set of the Nemunas River at Smalininkai WGS (1812–2013) as well. Mixed patterns of flood changes in Lithuanian rivers were detected. The analysis of flood discharges of the Nemunas River indicated that both spring and flash floods in Lithuania were getting smaller.     

Extreme hydrological events in the Danube River basin over the last decades

The article discusses the considerable changes in hydrometeorological conditions that occurred in the Danube River basin over the period from the late XX century to the early XXI century. Mention is made of the air and water temperature rise, softening of ice conditions, and, above all, the noticeable increase in the river water runoff. Particular attention is given to the recent extreme hydrological events in the Danube River basin: the disastrous rainfall flood that occurred in August 2002, the extremely high spring-summer floods in 2006 and 2010, and the extraordinary low-flow period in summer 2003. The meteorological reasons for these events have been analyzed. Specific features in the development and transformation of flood waves along the Danube River are discussed in detail, including the impact of the Iron Gate-1 Reservoir on these processes.     

Interannual variability of wave climate in the Caribbean Sea

Ocean Dynamics - Low-frequency interannual climatic oscillations have been reported to influence the precipitation regimes, river discharges, winds, and sea level in the Caribbean Sea. Here, we...     

Extreme short‐term stable isotope variability revealed by continuous rainwater analysis

The continuous real‐time analysis, at 30‐s intervals, of precipitation at an Australian tropical location revealed extreme and rapidly changing δ¹⁸O and δD values related to variations in moisture source areas, transport paths and precipitation histories. The range of δ¹⁸O (?19.6‰ to +2.6‰) and δD (?140‰ to +13‰) values from 5948 measurements of nine rain events over 15 days during an 8‐month period at a single location was comparable with the range measured in 1532 monthly samples from all seven Australian Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation stations from 1962 to 2002. Extreme variations in δ¹⁸O (?8.7‰ to ?19.6‰) and δD (?54‰ to ?140‰) were recorded within a single 4‐h period. Real‐time stable isotope monitoring of precipitation at a high temporal resolution enables new and powerful tracer applications in climatology, hydrology, ecophysiology and palaeoclimatology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Latitudinal and longitudinal variability of mesospheric winds and temperatures during stratospheric warming events

Continuous MF and meteor radar observations allow detailed studies of winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) as well as temperatures around the mesopause. This height region is characterized by a strong variability in winter due to enhanced planetary wave activity and related stratospheric warming events, which are distinct coupling processes between lower, middle and upper atmosphere. Here the variability of mesospheric winds and temperatures is discussed in relation with major and minor stratospheric warmings as observed during winter 2005/06 in comparison with results during winter 1998/99.Our studies are based on MF radar wind measurements at Andenes (69°N, 16°E), Poker Flat (65°N, 147°W) and Juliusruh (55°N, 13°E) as well as on meteor radar observations of winds and temperatures at Resolute Bay (75°N, 95°W), Andenes (69°N, 16°E) and Kühlungsborn (54°N, 12°E). Additionally, energy dissipation rates have been estimated from spectral width measurements using a 3 MHz Doppler radar near Andenes. Particular attention is directed to the changes of winds, turbulence and the gravity wave activity in the mesosphere in relation to the planetary wave activity in the stratosphere.Observations indicate an enhancement of planetary wave 1 activity in the mesosphere at high latitudes during major stratospheric warmings. Daily mean temperatures derived from meteor decay times indicate that strong warming events are connected with a cooling of the 90 km region by about 10–20 K. The onset of these cooling processes and the reversals of the mesospheric circulation to easterly winds occur some days before the changes of the zonal circulation in the stratosphere start indicating a downward propagation of the circulation disturbances from the MLT region to the stratosphere and troposphere during the stratospheric warming events. The short-term reversal of the mesospheric winds is followed by a period of strong westerly winds connected with enhanced turbulence rates and an increase of gravity wave activity in the altitude range 70–85 km.     

Extreme flood events and climate change around 3500 aBP in the Central Plains of China

The occurrence of prehistoric extreme flood events has been the common interest of geologists, geographers and archaeologists. It is recognized that from 5000 aBP to 3000 aBP was a period of extreme floods frequently occurring around the world. For in-stance, flood events have been found in North Amer-ica, rapid sea level rise has been found in both the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, and flooded ancient cities have been found in a number of coast areas[1—6]. In China, records of pre…     

Caesium-137 soil sampling and inventory variability in reference locations: A literature survey

Soil sampling design, the number of samples collected and the lateral variation of caesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) in uneroded reference locations were extracted from previously published work. The focus was on published work which used ¹³⁷Cs reference inventory (Bq m⁻²) for qualitative or quantitative estimation of sediment redistribution (SRD) within the landscape. The objective of this study was to address one of the methodological concerns facing the ¹³⁷Cs technique—that is, the lack of a rigorous statistical treatment of reference locations. The limited attention paid to the reference location is not justified as ‘true’ estimates of SRD are based on the assumption of an unbiased, independent, random probability sample estimate, commonly the arithmetic mean. Results from the literature survey indicated that only 11% of the reference locations sampled for ¹³⁷Cs expressly stated that a probability sampling design was used (transect or systematic-aligned grid). The remaining locations were generally sampled using a non-probability based design, more commonly known as haphazard sampling. Of the 75 reference study areas identified only 40 provided enough information to determine the dispersion around the mean, and from this the coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated for all available data. The median CV was 19·3%, with 95% confidence limits of 13·0–23.4%, indicating that approximately 11 random, independent samples would generally be necessary to adequately quantify the reference ¹³⁷Cs area activity with an allowable error of 10% at 90% confidence. Further analysis indicated that only one-third of the studies sampled a sufficient number of ¹³⁷Cs reference locations. This value would actually be lower as sampling frameworks were based on non-probability sampling procedures. For ¹³⁷Cs reference locations it is recommended that a probability sampling design be utilized, preferably the systematic-aligned grid method, and as a minimum first-order estimate about 11 samples should be collected for inventory estimates.     

Entropy inference of recurrence models for variability analysis of extreme events

A complete methodology is developed to analyze the recurrence of extreme environmental events and its variability as time without further events elapses. Firstly we investigate the conditioned recurrence inference problem consisting in the selection of a probability model for the interarrival time between extreme events, given a contexto-factual evidence conditioned by the time elapsed since the last of such events. Two ways to include this condition can be considered, which yield alternative conditioned evidences and convert the former problem into two distinct ones, thus giving rise to a possible consistency violation. These problems are formalized within the logical probability framework, in a plausible logic language that allows a suitable expression of the available observational data. They are solved using the REF relative entropy method with fractile constraints, and their solutions are compared at all inference levels. It is concluded that the two conditioning ways are not really mutually exclusive and that a unique global solution to the conditioned inference can be obtained using this procedure. An example illustrates an application of the methodology to the variability analysis of the recurrence time between historical inundations of the Guadalquivir river in Spain, as time elapses with no new floods.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by DGI of Spain as the grant REN2000-2988-E/CLI and the research project REN2002-01337/CLI.     

中国热浪事件的大气扰动结构及其稳定性分析

利用对流层至平流层大气变量的物理分解,本文发现400 hPa上的天气尺度温度扰动正值和250 hPa上的天气尺度高度扰动正值能够指示地面上的高温和热浪事件.理论和观测分析发现,当扰动静止波中心出现在40°N—45°N时,准静止波波长较长,影响范围大,持续时间久,容易在中国形成区域持续性热浪事件.在江南—华南、长江沿江及河套—华北的区域,干热浪事件静止波的稳定时间在6.5天以上.对流层大气天气尺度扰动波动在垂直方向具有倾斜特征,250 hPa高度上,静止波稳定位置比地面热浪区域中心普遍偏北6~12个纬距.在低纬度(副热带高压带南侧),大气中向西北方向移动的天气尺度扰动,只有到达副高脊线以北的西风带后,才能形成静止波.     

Automatic sampling of stream water during storm events in small remote catchments

In order to study the relationship between water composition and stream flow rate, it is desirable to sample at a frequency related to flow rate, especially during storm events. In a rural catchment of 18 ha near Oxford, the rate of rainfall was found to be linearly related to discharge on the rising limb of the stream hydrograph. A sampling system was therefore designed in which electrical pulses from a tipping-bucket raingauge were used to initiate and control the action of an automatic water sampler. A threshold rainfall intensity is set above which sampling commences. Sampling then continues at regular increments of rainfall until the intensity drops below the threshold, after which sampling occurs at regular intervals during the period that the stream flow reverts to normal. The CMOS electrical circuits which control the sampling also operate a cassette tape recorder which records the time of each tip of the raingauge and operation of the sampler. Since the sytem is designed to impose very little additional load on the battery which powers the water sampler, and can operate unattended for at least a fortnight, it is ideal for use in small, remote catchments. The system has been extended to include measurements of water temperature and could provide other measurements as well.     

Extreme variability of water table dynamics in temperate calcareous fens: Implications for biodiversity

Calcareous fens are minerotrophic peatlands with very high species diversity, and maintenance of the water table is assumed to be a key contributor to this diversity. However, this assumption is based on limited study of fen water table dynamics. Here we monitor water table fluctuation in distributed locations across three calcareous fens differing in hydrogeomorphic setting for three growing seasons. Water table position was extremely variable with absolute ranges of 89, > 100, and > 118 cm in the Riparian, Trough and Basin Fens, respectively, and was controlled by landscape position and weather variability. Areas adjacent to a second‐order stream experienced the least water table fluctuation, while the Basin Fen, at > 75 m from a surface water connection, was very prone to year‐to‐year precipitation differences. Mean and median water table values were found to be poor indicators of biologically relevant hydroperiods. We introduce the term ‘duration of initial growing season saturation’ as a potentially more useful statistic to relate to plant species distribution. Across the studied fens, this duration ranged from 1 to 14 weeks from the start of the growing season. The water table resided below the ground surface for between 0 and 22 weeks of the growing season across the calcareous fens and study period. These findings impart great differences in the development of oxidized rooting depths. Our results demonstrate that there is much more variation in calcareous fen hydrology than previously reported, and this variability has important implications for fen vegetation patterning and management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于中国东港台站的OH气辉成像观测数据对重力波波源的事件分析

利用东港（40°N,124°E）台站于2013年9月15—16日的OH气辉成像观测数据报告了两个重力波事件（1和2）.同时,结合北京十三陵（40.3°N,116.2°E）台站的多普勒流星雷达风场数据和位于39.4°N,130.6°E位置处的SABER/TIMED卫星的温度参数分析发现,观测的两个重力波事件于2013年9月15—16日02:00—03:00 LT时间段,和70~110 km高度是自由传播的.利用反射线追踪方法分析表明,重力波事件1和事件2分别产生于（39.3°N,117.2°E）和（47.1°N,121.3°E）.且事件1的波源位置与对流活动和大气向上向下运动过程中产生的不稳定性吻合较好.然而,通过ECMWF再分析资料和MTSAT卫星观测数据分析表明,事件2可能由对流活动或大气向上运动过程中可能产生的不稳定性导致.利用MERRA自地面到约70 km高度的风场数据分析表明,观测的重力波事件1和事件2的水平相速度分别是83.5 m·s^-1（事件1）和80.1 m·s^-1（事件2）,均大于低层-中层大气风速-10~45 m·s^-1.因此,观测的两个重力波事件是可能从低层大气传播到中层-低热层大气的.

     

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Spatio‐temporal variability of Great Lakes basin snow cover ablation events

In the Great Lakes basin of North America, annual run‐off is dominated by snowmelt. This snowmelt‐induced run‐off plays an important role within the hydrologic cycle of the basin, influencing soil moisture availability and driving the seasonal cycle of spring and summer lake levels. Despite this, relatively little is understood about the patterns and trends of snow ablation event frequency and magnitude within the Great Lakes basin. This study uses a gridded dataset of Canadian and United States surface snow depth observations to develop a regional climatology of snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. An ablation event is defined as an interdiurnal snow depth decrease within an individual grid cell. A clear seasonal cycle in ablation event frequency exists within the basin and peak ablation event probability is latitudinally dependent. Most of the basin experiences peak ablation frequency in March, while the northern and southern regions of the basin experience respective peaks in April and February. An investigation into the interannual frequency of ablation events reveals ablation events significantly decrease within the northeastern and northwestern Lake Superior drainage basins and significantly increase within the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins. In the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins, larger ablation events are occurring more frequently, and a larger impact to the hydrology can be expected. Trends in ablation events are attributed primarily to changes in snowfall and snow depth across the region.