Revising the paradigm of tidal analysis – the uses of non-stationary data

Surface elevation and current records contain non-tidal variance, often dismissed as noise. The processes responsible for the non-tidal component may also modulate the tidal signal, altering its strength and frequency structure. Because of their manner of generation and propagation, internal tides are inherently irregular. The non-stationary character of these and other tidal processes provides an integral and useful property of tidal records, because it provides an opportunity to obtain insights into tidal dynamics and the interaction of tidal and non-tidal processes. It is, moreover, productive to use multiple approaches in analyzing coastal and estuarine tidal processes so that both the time-varying and average frequency content are determined. Only by confronting the causes of non-stationary behaviour in this way can some of the remaining challenges in tidal analysis and prediction be overcome, e.g. shelf and estuarine currents, river tides, internal tides, tide-surge interactions and tidally influenced ecological processes. Several examples illustrate the utility of non-stationary tidal analysis methods.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

An uncertainty parameter of historical earthquakes – the record threshold

In this study we use the term record threshold of a historical earthquake for the seismic intensity (EMS92) in an area where a given percentage P of the serial sources of places have recorded the event as been noticed there. The record threshold is understood as a limiting measure, below which warranted statements about the intensity cannot be given. P defines the acceptable uncertainty and can be chosen according to the demands of the special task, for instance, 10%. It is shown that the record threshold of historical earthquakes is not the same as the human perceptibility threshold of earthquakes of the 20th Century. The historical sources have to be selected using criteria such as completeness and homogenity of data. This demand is approximately met by inquiries for sources covering an area greater than the expected felt area of the historical earthquake.The Friuli event of 25 January 1348 is presented as an example. It is compared with the well known Friuli event of 6 May 1976 in order to calibrate its intensity. The record threshold of the 1348 event was probably IV or less than IV EMS92 for P = 10%. The method, properly modified, can be applied to different cultural epochs and areas. This result throws a light on the possible error in determining the felt area of historical events.     

Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application.

Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314.     

The impacts of pyroclastic surges on buildings at the eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat

We investigated the impacts on buildings of three pyroclastic surges that struck three separate villages on 25 June, 21 September and 26 December, 1997, during the course of the andesitic dome building eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, which began on 18 July, 1995. A detailed analysis of the building damage of the 26 December event was used to compare the findings on the flow and behaviour of dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) with the classical reports of PDCs from historical eruptions of similar size. The main characteristics of the PDC, as inferred from the building damage, were the lateral loading and directionality of the current; the impacts corresponded to the dynamic pressure of the PDC, with a relatively slow rate of rise and without the peak overpressure or a shock front associated with explosive blast; and the entrainment of missiles and ground materials which greatly added to the destructiveness of the PDC. The high temperature of the ash, causing the rapid ignition of furniture and other combustibles, was a major cause of damage even where the dynamic pressure was low at the periphery of the current. The vulnerability of buildings lay in the openings, mainly windows, which allowed the current to enter the building envelope, and in the flammable contents, as well as the lack of resistance to the intense heat and dynamic pressure of some types of vernacular building construction, such as wooden chattel houses, rubble masonry walls and galvanised steel-sheet roofs. Marked variability in the level of damage due to dynamic pressure (in a range 1–5 kPa, or more) was evident throughout most of the impact area, except for the zone of total loss, and this was attributable to the effects of topography and sheltering, and projectiles, and probably localised variations in current velocity and density. A marked velocity gradient existed from the outer part to the central axis of the PDC, where buildings and vegetation were razed to the ground. The gradient correlated with the impacts due to lateral loading and heat transfer, as well as the size of the projectiles, whilst the temperature of the ash in the undiluted PDC was probably uniform across the impact area. The main hazard characteristics of the PDCs were very consistent with those described by other authors in the classic eruptions of Pelée (1902), Lamington (1951) and St Helens (1980), despite differences in the eruptive styles and scales. We devised for the first time a building damage scale for dynamic pressure which can be used in research and in future volcanic emergencies for modelling PDCs and making informed judgements on their potential impacts. Editorial responsibility: T. Druitt     

Event in the case of a single reservoir: the Ghèzala dam in Northern Tunisia

The paper focuses on the development of reservoir operating rules for dry and rainfall events, and their implementation in the case of the Ghézala dam located in northern Tunisia (characterized by Mediterranean climate). Rainfall events are defined in terms of depth and duration that are correlated to each other. A depth analysis per event is performed, conditioned on the event duration. The gamma distribution provides a good fit to depth per event, especially for events lasting at least 6 days. The event duration fits a geometric distribution, whereas the dry events during the rainy season fit a negative binomial distribution. The climatic cycle length is fitted to a gamma distribution. On this basis, many 50-year synthetic event series were generated. Every synthetic streamflow sequence obtained from synthetic rainfall sequences as well as the one derived from the historic rainfall events time series were optimized and optimal decisions were formulated. These decisions were assessed by means of multiple regression analysis to estimate the relation between the optimal decision to every stage (dry or rainfall event) and other system variables. Optimal rules, which have a linear form, were derived by predetermined useful storage interval and depend on storage, inflows and downstream demand at dry or rainfall event t. The range of t is 1–13 days (rainfall event) and 1–57 days (dry event). The rules were satisfactory for every predetermined useful storage interval. The simulated dam performance generated by the operation rules was compared with the deterministic optimum operation and the historical operation. Also included is the comparison of the implicit stochastic optimization-based operation policy per event during the water years 1985–2002.

Magnetostratigraphy of the Lodève Basin, France: Implications for the Permo-Carboniferous reversed superchron and the geocentric axial dipole

New results from the La Lieude Formation now complete the magneto-stratigraphic coverage of the Permian redbeds preserved in the Lodève Basin of southern France. The majority of the samples yield reversed polarity, with a mean of declination D = 187.4°, inclination I = ?0.5° (Fisherian statistics k = 44.2, ??₉₅ = 5.6°, n = 16). Together with previously published results, these data indicate that the entire basin lies within the Permo-Carboniferous Reversed Superchron (PCRS). But the stratigraphically highest sample exhibits normal polarity, suggesting that the transition marking the end of the PCRS may be close. The unusual behaviour of the geodynamo that generates superchrons prompts one to ask if there are concomitant influences on the morphology of the field. The intersecting palaeomeridian method offers a means of pursuing this question. An updated analysis suggests that there are currently no compelling reasons for adding significant higher-order terms to the geocentric axial dipole (GAD) model for the Late Permian.     

ESR dating of Pleistocene archaeological localities of the Nihewan Basin,North China – Preliminary results

The well-developed, late Cenozoic Nihewan Beds in northern China are amongst the most famous and well-preserved Quaternary strata in East Asia. The Nihewan Basin is also well-known for its mammalian fossils and stone artifacts, which document early human settlements in high northern latitudes (around 40°N). It is a key geological place to study palaeoenvironments and ancient human activities due to the excellent age-control of the formation by palaeomagnetism. In the present paper, the sediments of two Paleolithic sites were dated using the ESR signals of the titanium center in quartz. In order to check the reliability of our analytical procedures, a reference sample collected near the Brunhes/Matuyama (B/M) boundary at the Donggutuo site was firstly analyzed, yielding an age of 750 ± 88 ka. Then, three samples collected from the Dongpo site were analyzed by the same procedures. Our ESR results indicate that the age of the Dongpo cultural layer ranges between 304 ± 12 ka and 333 ± 23 ka, with an average of approximately 321 ± 15 ka.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment of the East Thuringian Region/Germany – Case Study

East Thuringia/Germany, especially the region Gera-Ronneburg, is part of the large Kyffhäuser-Jachymov-Fault-Zone and displays moderate seismicity. However, its seismic hazard is significantly higher than that of the surrounding area including the Vogtland/Northern Bohemian region. The earthquake catalogue of Germany contains for this region besides the well-investigated Central German Earthquake (March 1872, I ₀ =VII-VIII) entries of up to I ₀ =VIII (14th century). Epicentral intensities and coordinates of these historical earthquakes are considered as uncertain. In seismic hazard analysis historical events which are uncertain are often neglected. But, especially in regions of moderate seismicity and infrequent larger earthquakes, the time window considered should be extended as far as possible. Apart from the necessity to study the historical sources of the strongest 14th century earthquakes, we investigate the influence of these events on the seismic hazard, taking into account the uncertainties of their size and location. Generally, the investigations clearly reveal the importance of defining source regions on the one hand and the significance of the local relevant attenuation function on the other hand. A further important point in seismic hazard assessment is the strong influence of the geological site conditions on seismic hazard (amplification or damping phenomena). For both points the well-known Central German Earthquake (1872) supplies important information.     

Displacement – based parametric study on the seismic response of gravity earth-retaining walls

The essence of performance-based design of gravity earth-retaining structures lies in the estimation of the residual (i.e. permanent) displacements after a seismic event. The accomplishment of this task however can be very complicated due to two interacting phenomena: the coupled sliding and tilting rigid body motion of the wall on an inelastic base and the formation of failure surfaces in the soil backfill. In this study a large number of fully non-linear, time-history analyses of gravity retaining walls (GRW) were performed using advanced numerical modelling. Different types of soil parameters and varying wall geometry within a practical range were investigated. The influence of different ground motion parameters was discussed and the results were compared with some of the most common limit equilibrium Newmark׳s sliding block procedures, including the recommendations by Eurocode 8, Part 5 [20]. Lastly, some recommendations for fast preliminary assessment of the seismic permanent displacements of GRW were provided.     

Hydro-mechanical properties of the Red Salt Clay (T4) – Relevancy of the minimum stress criterion for barrier integrity

The so-called Red Salt Clay (T4) is deposited as clay-rich clastic sediment at the base of the Aller-series forming a persistent lateral layer of up to 20 m thickness above the lower Zechstein-series. The clay layers may act as a protective shield in the hanging wall of gas storages or underground repositories in salt formations, thus resulting in a multi-barrier system. As a proof of its reliability comprehensive hydro-mechanical investigations were performed on clay samples recovered at different sites in Germany. Most important, rock tightness against various fluids was confirmed in the lab and field-scale. Remarkably, only if the fluid pressure equalises the acting minimal stress (i.e. violence of the “minimum stress criterion”) a significant increase of permeability is observed (“pathway dilatation”) but no macro-frac. However, the material properties from different locations showed a significant variability according to different burial depths. Thus the Red Salt Clay may act as natural analogue, representing the material variability of various indurated clays. In addition, the existing knowledge gained from practical mining activities can be used to evaluate extreme in situ loading conditions.     

Smoothing the source time function – a tool to soften inadequate modelling of the medium during inversion of local waveforms?

The inconsistency of records of local earthquakes and synthetic seismograms due to noise contamination of the data and/or to improper Green function because of an inexact structural model often results in high frequency oscillations of the source time function, which prolongs it spuriously. A priori limit on the roughness of the source time function turned out to reduce the spurious oscillations but it keeps its spurious extension unchanged. Thus, it may yield a severe distortion of the seismic moment. However, it reduces the spurious volumetric component of the mechanism resulting from improper modelling of the structure and, thus, may help decide whether the retrieved volumetric component is real or false. The demand for the smoothness is incorporated as a penalty function in the minimization of the least square residuals, which allows us to decide about the degree of the smoothness. The minimization is performed with a simple genetic algorithm, which offers the advantage of a detailed exploration of the model space reducing the danger of being trapped in local minima.     

Modern geostatistics: computational BME analysis in the light of uncertain physical knowledge – the Equus Beds study

This paper is concerned with a computational formulation of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) mapping method, which can handle rigorously and efficiently spatiotemporal applications of considerable practical importance. BME is a method of modern geostatistics that can integrate and process physical knowledge that belongs to two major bases: general knowledge (i.e., obtained from general principles and laws, summary statistics and background information), and specificatory knowledge (i.e., obtained through experience with the specific situation). BME allows considerable flexibility regarding the choice of an appropriate spatiotemporal map, offers a complete assessment of the mapping uncertainty and contributes to the scientific understanding of the underlying natural phenomenon. Valuable insight is gained by studying a spatiotemporal data set representing water-level elevations at the Equus Beds aquifer (Kansas). Numerical results show that, as was expected in theory, classical geostatistics analysis is obtained as a special case of the considerably more general BME approach. Moreover, modern geostatistical analysis in terms of BME offers more accurate and informative results in practice, by incorporating various sources of physical knowledge that cannot be processed by the classical methods.     

Age-depth modelling and the effect of including – or not – shared errors across sets of OSL samples: The case study of Beg-er-Vil (Brittany,France)

The coastal site of Beg-er-Vil (Brittany, France) has yielded remains of a dwelling site from the Mesolithic period, dating back to ca. 8000 years ago. These archaeological remains were covered by a marine sand dune. Among the research questions raised by recent excavations, the timing of the dune formation with respect to the human occupations is of particular interest: how much time elapsed between these two events? To resolve this question, we employed radiocarbon dating to infer the timing of human occupations and OSL dating to date the dune aggradation. We combined radiocarbon and OSL data in a Bayesian framework, including stratigraphic constraints and measurement errors shared across OSL samples, to build a robust and precise chronological model of the site. We then built an age-depth model for the dune to determine the onset of dune formation. We conclude that we cannot detect a time gap between the latest human occupations and dune aggradation. Finally, we demonstrate how stratigraphic constraints and shared errors affect – and improve – the precision of the chronology inferred from our measurements.     

Quantifying and modelling the carbon sequestration capacity of seagrass meadows – A critical assessment

Seagrasses are among the planet’s most effective natural ecosystems for sequestering (capturing and storing) carbon (C); but if degraded, they could leak stored C into the atmosphere and accelerate global warming. Quantifying and modelling the C sequestration capacity is therefore critical for successfully managing seagrass ecosystems to maintain their substantial abatement potential. At present, there is no mechanism to support carbon financing linked to seagrass. For seagrasses to be recognised by the IPCC and the voluntary C market, standard stock assessment methodologies and inventories of seagrass C stocks are required. Developing accurate C budgets for seagrass meadows is indeed complex; we discuss these complexities, and, in addition, we review techniques and methodologies that will aid development of C budgets. We also consider a simple process-based data assimilation model for predicting how seagrasses will respond to future change, accompanied by a practical list of research priorities.     

Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood loss is difficult, especially in the commercial sector, because of its great inhomogeneity. However, the reliability of loss modelling is fairly unknown, since flood-loss models are scarcely validated. The newly developed Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was validated on the micro-scale using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Additionally, different meso-scale loss functions were compared. Meso-scale model application was undertaken in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood in Germany. Model results were compared with the results of three other loss models, as well as with official loss records. The micro-scale validation shows very good results, with no bias and mean absolute errors between 23 and 31%. The meso-scale validation indicates that FLEMOcs provides good results, especially in large areas with many affected companies where high losses are expected.

Citation Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1315–1324.     

Submarine pyroclastic deposits formed during the 20th May 2006 dome collapse of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

The 20th May 2006 lava dome collapse of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, had a total non-dense rock equivalent (non-DRE) collapse volume of approximately 115?×?10⁶?m³. The majority of this volume was deposited into the ocean. The collapse was rapid, 85% of the mobilized volume being removed in just 35?min, giving peak pyroclastic flow flux of 66?×?10³?m³?s^?1. Channel and levee facies on the submarine flanks of the volcano and formation of a thick, steep-sided ridge, suggest that the largest and most dense blocks were transported proximally as a high concentration granular flow. Of the submerged volume, 30% was deposited from the base of this granular flow, forming a linear, high-relief ridge that extends 7?km from shore. The remaining 70% of the submerged volume comprises the finer grain sizes, which were transported at least 40?km by turbidity currents on gradients of <2°. At several localities, the May 2006 distal turbidity currents ran up 200?m of topography and eroded up to 20?cm of underlying substrate. Multiple turbidites are preserved, representing current reflection from the graben margins and deflection around topography. The high energy of the May 2006 collapse resulted in longer submarine run out than the larger (210?×?10⁶?m³) Soufrière Hills dome collapse in July 2003.     

Trace element contamination in the estuarine sediments along Tuticorin coast – Gulf of Mannar,southeast coast of India

Sediment samples were collected from Kallar, Korampallam creek and Punnakayal estuaries of Tuticorin coast for assessing the level of contamination by trace elements in these estuarine sediments. The trace element concentration, calcium carbonate, organic carbon and mercury level were analyzed by Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrophotometer, Titrimetric method and SnCl₂ reduction method. The results reveals that the enrichment factor, metal pollution index and geo-accumulation index of these estuarine sediments were predominantly polluted by Cd, As, Zn, Hg and Pb. The factor analysis revealed the source of trace element accumulation in the estuarine sediments particularly Mn and Fe are from riverine inputs and As and Hg from untreated industrial effluents. Among the selected estuaries, Korampallam creek was found to be highly contaminated by trace elements due to the discharge of effluents from thermal power plant, Tuticorin alkali chemicals, copper smelting, Petrochemical industries and shipping activities.     

The nature and formation of cristobalite at the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat: implications for the petrology and stability of silicic lava domes

Cristobalite is commonly found in the dome lava of silicic volcanoes but is not a primary magmatic phase; its presence indicates that the composition and micro-structure of dome lavas evolve during, and after, emplacement. Nine temporally and mineralogically diverse dome samples from the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, are analysed to provide the first detailed assessment of the nature and mode of cristobalite formation in a volcanic dome. The dome rocks contain up to 11 wt.% cristobalite, as defined by X-ray diffraction. Prismatic and platy forms of cristobalite, identified by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), are commonly found in pores and fractures, suggesting that they have precipitated from a vapour phase. Feathery crystallites and micro-crystals of cristobalite and quartz associated with volcanic glass, identified using SEM-Raman, are interpreted to have formed by varying amounts of devitrification. We discuss mechanisms of silica transport and cristobalite formation, and their implications for petrological interpretations and dome stability. We conclude: (1) that silica may be transported in the vapour phase locally, or from one part of the magmatic system to another; (2) that the potential for transport of silica into the dome should not be neglected in petrological and geochemical studies because the addition of non-magmatic phases may affect whole rock composition; and (3) that the extent of cristobalite mineralisation in the dome at SHV is sufficient to reduce porosity—hence, permeability—and may impact on the mechanical strength of the dome rock, thereby potentially affecting dome stability.