Securing the future of ground water resources in the Great Lakes basin

Ground water is a vital, but underappreciated, natural resource in the Great Lakes basin. It meets many human needs and contributes significantly to the hydrology of the Great Lakes and the health of ecosystems. This paper provides an overview of ground water in the Great Lakes and the institutional and legal setting that governs the use, protection, diversion, and removal of water from the basin and proposes a citizen-centered vision for management of ground water in the 21st century.     

Many-year level variations in the Great Lakes of Eurasia and North America

Regularities in the secular variations of water level in the Great Lakes of Eurasia and North America under natural climate and anthropogenic impacts are studied.     

The paleoseismogenic activation of the Great Lakes segment of the Erzin-Agar-Dag fault

Seismogeological investigations conducted in the Erzin-Agar-Dag fault zone (the Great Lakes segment) revealed traces of paleoseismogenic deformation. A detailed on-land investigation of the Tatur-Tolga and the Hairakan paleoseismic dislocations (PSD) found a dominant left lateral type of movement. The amplitudes of one-act displacements on the faults vary between 2–3 and 6–7 m (horizontal) and within 1.5–2 m (vertical). Along with the parameters of one-act horizontal movements of a few meters, we found an accumulated amplitude of strike-slip movement of a few tens to hundreds of meters. Based on the parameters of seismotectonic deformations, the magnitudes of the respective paleoearthquakes are inferred to have been 6.6 to 7.9.     

Radioactivity in sediments of the Great Lakes: Post-depositional redistribution by deposit-feeding organisms

At two locations in southern Lake Huron (U.S.A.), twelve 35.5-cm diameter cores of fine-grained sediments were taken for comparison of the vertical distributions of²¹⁰Pb and falllout¹³⁷Cs with the distributions of benthic macroinvertebrates, mainly oligochaete worms (Tubificidae) and the amphipod,Pontoporeia affinis. Locations were selected on the basis of²¹⁰Pb distributions measured a year earlier which indicated contrasting depths of mixing of surface sediments. At one location the activity of²¹⁰Pb is uniform down to about 6 cm and 95% of total invertebrates occur within this zone; at the other location the zone of constant activity is only 3 cm deep but 90% of the invertebrates occur within it. Comparison of published tubificid defecation rates with sediment accumulation rates based on²¹⁰Pb shows that oligochaetes alone can account for mixing in one case while the effects of amphipods may be required in the case of shallower mixing. If mixing is represented as a diffusional process, eddy diffusion coefficients are at least 5.8 and 3.3 cm² yr^?1 at respective locations. In comparison with bioturbation, molecular diffusion is of minor importance in the post-depositional mobility of¹³⁷Cs. The necessity for introducing a diffusion coefficient varying continuously with depth is indicated by characteristics of the distribution of¹³⁷Cs. Biological reworking of near-surface sediments is an important process affecting radioactivity and chemical profiles in profundal deposits of this and probably other Great Lakes.     

Synoptic and meteorological conditions during extreme snow cover ablation events in the Great Lakes Basin

Snow cover ablation in the Great Lakes basin is a common and hydrologically important process during the cold season, contributing to a majority of the basin's runoff, and less frequent, extreme ablation events are highly impactful due to an increased flooding risk and warrant specific investigation. A brief climatology of extreme ablation events is presented, where extreme is considered within the top 5% of the distribution. Using synoptic classification techniques, individual weather patterns associated with extreme snow ablation in the Great Lakes basin are isolated. A single pattern deemed the most influential in generating extreme ablation events, southerly flow-1, is examined in detail, and three case studies are presented to determine the meteorological conditions and surface energy fluxes responsible for ablation. Over 75% of extreme events are associated with southerly flow patterns that predominantly ablate snow with sensible heat fluxes, while rain-on-snow patterns induce the remaining extreme events from 1980–2009. Type southerly flow-1 is responsible for 45% of the extreme events and is characterized by strong southerly advection of warm air into the basin, where sensible heat fluxes of 45–125 Wm⁻² are responsible for the majority of energy transfer into the snowpack. When compared with an average ablation event, an extreme ablation event for southerly flow-1 exhibits air temperatures, dew point temperatures, and wind speeds that are 3.8°C, 3.0°C, and 1.2 ms⁻¹ warmer and faster than an average event, indicating a greater potential for larger ablation.     

Michigan basin regional ground water flow discharge to three Great Lakes

Ground water discharge to the Great Lakes around the Lower Peninsula of Michigan is primarily from recharge in riparian basins and proximal upland areas that are especially important to the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline. A steady-state finite-difference model was developed to simulate ground water flow in four regional aquifers in Michigan's Lower Peninsula: the Glaciofluvial, Saginaw, Parma-Bayport, and Marshall aquifers interlayered with the Till/"red beds," Saginaw, and Michigan confining units, respectively. The model domain was laterally bound by a continuous specified-head boundary, formed from lakes Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, and Erie, with the St. Clair and Detroit River connecting channels. The model was developed to quantify regional ground water flow in the aquifer systems using independently determined recharge estimates. According to the flow model, local stream stages and discharges account for 95% of the overall model water budget; only 50% enters the lakes directly from the ground water system. Direct ground water discharge to the Great Lakes' shorelines was calculated at 36 m3/sec, accounting for 5% of the overall model water budget. Lowland areas contribute far less ground water discharge to the Great Lakes than upland areas. The model indicates that Saginaw Bay receives only approximately 1.13 m3/sec ground water; the southern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives only approximately 2.83 m3/sec. In contrast, the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives more than 17 m3/sec from upland areas.     

Dynamic–Stochastic Modeling of Rivers Rising from Lakes

Problems arising in modeling long-term variations in rivers rising from lakes are discussed in the context of the theory of correlation of non-Gaussian stochastic processes and with the use of Fokker–Plank–Kolmogorov equation. Numerically simulated runoff values of the Angara River rising from Lake Baikal are given.     

Modeling undertow due to random waves

A numerical model of undertow due to random waves is developed. The model includes three sub-models: (i) a model for multi-directional and multi-frequency random wave transformation, (ii) a surface roller evolution model, and (iii) a model for calculating the vertical distribution and the mean value of the undertow velocity. The calculation of wave trough level is performed based on a theory for the wave asymmetry. The model was successfully validated against small- and large-scale laboratory experiments. Thus, the model is expected to provide reliable input for the modeling of sediment transport and morphological change due to waves and currents.     

Decay model for biocide treatment of unballasted vessels: application for the Laurentian Great Lakes

A biocide decay model was developed to assess the potential efficacy and environmental impacts associated with using glutaraldehyde to treat unballasted overseas vessels trading on the Laurentian Great Lakes. The results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that effective glutaraldehyde concentrations can be maintained for the duration of a vessel's oceanic transit (approximately 9-12 days): During this transit, glutaraldehyde concentrations were predicted to decrease by approximately 10% from initial treatment levels (e.g., 500 mgL(-1)). In terms of environmental impacts, mean glutaraldehyde concentrations released at Duluth-Superior Harbor, MN were predicted to be 100-fold lower than initial treatment concentrations, and ranged from 3.2 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 2.74) in April to 0.7 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 1.28) in August. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the re-ballasting dilution factor was the major variable governing final glutaraldehyde concentrations; however, lake surface temperatures became increasingly important during the warmer summer months.     

Low salinity residual ballast discharge and exotic species introductions to the North American Great Lakes

Exotic species introductions to the North American Great Lakes have continued even though ballast water management strategies were implemented in the early 1990s. Overseas vessels that arrive with little or no exchangeable ballast on board have been suspected to be an important source for discharging low salinity ballast containing low salinity tolerant organisms in this region. Residual ballast averaged 18.1+/-13.4 per thousand salinity among 62 samples taken primarily from bottom tanks on 26 vessels that entered the Great Lakes in 1999 and 2000. Sampling of 2-4 tanks each on nine vessels indicated all carried at least one tank of residual ballast of 相似文献   

Glacial isostatic adjustment at the Laurentide ice sheet margin: Models and observations in the Great Lakes region

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelling in North America relies on relative sea level information which is primarily obtained from areas far away from the uplift region. The lack of accurate geodetic observations in the Great Lakes region, which is located in the transition zone between uplift and subsidence due to the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet, has prevented more detailed studies of this former margin of the ice sheet. Recently, observations of vertical crustal motion from improved GPS network solutions and combined tide gauge and satellite altimetry solutions have become available. This study compares these vertical motion observations with predictions obtained from 70 different GIA models. The ice sheet margin is distinct from the centre and far field of the uplift because the sensitivity of the GIA process towards Earth parameters such as mantle viscosity is very different. Specifically, the margin area is most sensitive to the uppermost mantle viscosity and allows for better constraints of this parameter. The 70 GIA models compared herein have different ice loading histories (ICE-3/4/5G) and Earth parameters including lateral heterogeneities. The root-mean-square differences between the 6 best models and the two sets of observations (tide gauge/altimetry and GPS) are 0.66 and 1.57 mm/yr, respectively. Both sets of independent observations are highly correlated and show a very similar fit to the models, which indicates their consistent quality. Therefore, both data sets can be considered as a means for constraining and assessing the quality of GIA models in the Great Lakes region and the former margin of the Laurentide ice sheet.     

Glacial isostatic adjustment at the Laurentide ice sheet margin: Models and observations in the Great Lakes region

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelling in North America relies on relative sea level information which is primarily obtained from areas far away from the uplift region. The lack of accurate geodetic observations in the Great Lakes region, which is located in the transition zone between uplift and subsidence due to the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet, has prevented more detailed studies of this former margin of the ice sheet. Recently, observations of vertical crustal motion from improved GPS network solutions and combined tide gauge and satellite altimetry solutions have become available. This study compares these vertical motion observations with predictions obtained from 70 different GIA models. The ice sheet margin is distinct from the centre and far field of the uplift because the sensitivity of the GIA process towards Earth parameters such as mantle viscosity is very different. Specifically, the margin area is most sensitive to the uppermost mantle viscosity and allows for better constraints of this parameter. The 70 GIA models compared herein have different ice loading histories (ICE-3/4/5G) and Earth parameters including lateral heterogeneities. The root-mean-square differences between the 6 best models and the two sets of observations (tide gauge/altimetry and GPS) are 0.66 and 1.57 mm/yr, respectively. Both sets of independent observations are highly correlated and show a very similar fit to the models, which indicates their consistent quality. Therefore, both data sets can be considered as a means for constraining and assessing the quality of GIA models in the Great Lakes region and the former margin of the Laurentide ice sheet.     

Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region

Globally, the number of people experiencing water stress is expected to increase by millions by the end of the century. The Great Lakes region, representing 20% of the world's surface freshwater, is not immune to stresses on water supply due to uncertainties on the impacts of climate and land use change. It is imperative for researchers and policy makers to assess the changing state of water resources, even if the region is water rich. This research developed the integrated surface water-groundwater GSFLOW model and investigated the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources in the lower Great Lakes region of Western New York. To capture a range of scenarios, two climate emission pathways and three land development projections were used, specifically RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, increased urbanization by 50%, decreased urbanization by 50%, and current land cover, respectively. Model outputs of surface water and groundwater discharge into the Great Lakes and groundwater storage for mid- and late century were compared to historical to determine the direction and amplitude of changes. Both surface water and groundwater systems show no statistically significant changes under RCP 4.5 but substantial and worrisome losses with RCP 8.5 by mid-century and end of century. Under RCP 8.5, streamflow decreased by 22% for mid-century and 42% for late century. Adjusting impervious surfaces revealed complex land use effects, resulting in spatially varying groundwater head fluctuations. For instance, increasing impervious surfaces lowered groundwater levels from 0.5 to 3.8 m under Buffalo, the largest city in the model domain, due to reduced recharge in surrounding suburban areas. Ultimately, results of this study highlight the necessity of integrated modelling in assessing temporal changes to water resources. This research has implications for other water-rich areas, which may not be immune to effects of climate change and human activities.     

Using existing data to estimate aquifer properties, Great Lakes Region, USA

To determine specific storage and porosity, areally limited and time-consuming aquifer tests are frequently done. Hydrogeologic studies often do not have the resources to collect such data and rely on existing data sources for aquifer properties. An alternative tool for determining these aquifer properties is the analysis of earth tides. The objective of this study was to determine whether existing water-level and barometric-pressure data could be used to determine aquifer properties, such as porosity and specific storage, on a regional scale. In this study, national databases from the Great Lakes Region were queried for continuous records of groundwater-level and barometric-pressure data. Records from 37 selected wells were then analyzed for barometric efficiency and earth-tide responses. Specific-storage (S(s) ) and porosity values were determined, and the quality of the results were assessed with a measure of the "goodness of fit" (percent variance) of reconstruction of the response. Records from wells completed in several aquifer systems were analyzed with varying degrees of success. Aquifer S(s) values ranging from 5.9 × 10(-8) to 3.8 × 10(-6) /m were derived, with percent variance of reconstruction ranging from 1% to 78%. Comparisons with aquifer and laboratory testing of S(s) and porosity are favorable if the percent variance of reconstruction is above about 30%. Although the earth-tide-analysis method is not suitable for every situation, the S(s) and porosity of aquifers can, in many places, be estimated with existing water-level and barometric-pressure data or with data that are relatively inexpensive to collect.     

Spatio‐temporal variability of Great Lakes basin snow cover ablation events

In the Great Lakes basin of North America, annual run‐off is dominated by snowmelt. This snowmelt‐induced run‐off plays an important role within the hydrologic cycle of the basin, influencing soil moisture availability and driving the seasonal cycle of spring and summer lake levels. Despite this, relatively little is understood about the patterns and trends of snow ablation event frequency and magnitude within the Great Lakes basin. This study uses a gridded dataset of Canadian and United States surface snow depth observations to develop a regional climatology of snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. An ablation event is defined as an interdiurnal snow depth decrease within an individual grid cell. A clear seasonal cycle in ablation event frequency exists within the basin and peak ablation event probability is latitudinally dependent. Most of the basin experiences peak ablation frequency in March, while the northern and southern regions of the basin experience respective peaks in April and February. An investigation into the interannual frequency of ablation events reveals ablation events significantly decrease within the northeastern and northwestern Lake Superior drainage basins and significantly increase within the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins. In the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins, larger ablation events are occurring more frequently, and a larger impact to the hydrology can be expected. Trends in ablation events are attributed primarily to changes in snowfall and snow depth across the region.     

Coherence between atmospheric teleconnections,Great Lakes water levels,and regional climate

We investigated the frequency domain relationships between four atmospheric teleconnections (Trans-Niño Index TNI, Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDO, Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation Index NAM/AO, and Pacific/North American PNA pattern) and water levels in the Great Lakes from 1948 to 2002 by quantifying the coherence between these time series. The levels in all Great Lakes are significantly correlated with the TNI in the frequency range (3–7)⁻¹ cycles year⁻¹, and with the PDO in interdecadal frequencies. The levels in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Erie are significantly correlated with the PNA pattern in interdecadal frequencies, and the levels in all Great Lakes are significantly correlated with the NAM/AO in interannual frequencies.     

傅里叶有限差分法三维波动方程正演模拟

傅里叶有限差分(FFD)法兼有相位屏法和隐式有限差分法二者的优势,能够处理复杂地质构造中的波传播问题,但在三维情形下,算子的双向分裂会引起明显的方位各向异性误差.本文用Fourier变换计算双向分裂过程中的高阶交叉项,消除了方位各向异性误差.该方法充分利用了FFD法在双域实现的算法结构,明显减少了由于引入误差校正所带来的计算量.将该方法应用于修改后的三维French模型的地震正演问题,并将得到的叠后记录、单炮记录同全波有限差分法的模拟结果进行对比,结果证实了该方法对一次反射波具有较高的模拟精度,在内存需求和计算效率方面则具有更大的优势.     

Development,implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System

The NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observations and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature and currents, and two-dimensional forecasts of water levels of the Great Lakes. This system, originally called the Great Lakes forecasting system (GLFS), was developed at The Ohio State University and NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) in 1989. In 1996, a workstation version of the GLFS was ported to GLERL to generate semi-operational nowcasts and forecasts daily. In 2004, GLFS went through rigorous skill assessment and was transitioned to the National Ocean Service (NOS) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) in Silver Spring, MD. GLOFS has been making operational nowcasts and forecasts at CO-OPS since September 30, 2005. Hindcast, nowcast, and forecast evaluations using the NOS-developed skill assessment software tool indicated both surface water levels and temperature predictions passed the NOS specified criteria at a majority of the validation locations with relatively low root mean square error (4–8 cm for water levels and 0.5 to 1°C for surface water temperatures). The difficulty of accurately simulating seiches generated by storms (in particular in shallow lakes like Lake Erie) remains a major source of error in water level prediction and should be addressed in future improvements of the forecast system.     

Modeling shoreline sand waves on the coasts of Namibia and Angola

The southwestern (SW) coast of Africa (Namibia and Angola) features long sandy beaches and a wave climate dominated by energetic swells from the Southsouthwest (SSW), therefore approaching the coast with a very high obliquity. Satellite images reveal that along that coast there are many shoreline sand waves with wavelengths ranging from 2 to 8 km. A more detailed study, including a Fourier analysis of the shoreline position, yields the wavelengths (among this range) with the highest spectral density concentration. Also, it becomes apparent that at least some of the sand waves are dynamically active rather than being controlled by the geological setting. A morphodynamic model is used to test the hypothesis that these sand waves could emerge as free morphodynamic instabilities of the coastline due to the obliquity in wave incidence. It is found that the period of the incident water waves, T_p, is crucial to establish the tendency to stability or instability, instability increasing for decreasing period, whilst there is some discrepancy in the observed periods. Model results for T_p = 7–8 s clearly show the tendency for the coast to develop free sand waves at about 4 km wavelength within a few years, which migrate to the north at rates of 0.2–0.6 km yr^?1. For larger T_p or steeper profiles, the coast is stable but sand waves originated by other mechanisms can propagate downdrift with little decay.