近30年来藏北高原湖泊变化对气候波动的响应

According to the analysis of the climate materials including the topographic map in 1975, the TM and CBERS satellite remote sensing materials from the 1980s to 2005 as well as the air temperature, precipitation, evaporation rate, maximum depth of snow and the biggest depth of frozen soil in the past 45 years, the water level area of four lakes at the southeast of Nagqu, Tibet including Bam Co, Pung Co, Dung Co and Nuripung Co show a distinct trend of expansion in the past 30 years. In 2005, the water level area of the above four lakes increased by 48.2 km², 38.2 km², 19.8 km² and 26.0 km² respectively compared to 1975, with the respective increase rate of 25.6%, 28.2%, 16.2% and 37.6%. That is closely related to the warming and humidified climate change in the recent years such as rise of the air temperature, increase of the precipitation, decrease of the evaporation rate and permafrost degradation. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40761005 Author: Bian Duo (1966–), Professor, specialized in application of remote sensing and GIS on environment.     

近30年来西藏那曲地区湖泊变化对气候波动的响应

根据1975年地形图、20世纪80年代至2005年的TM、CBERS卫星遥感资料和近45年的气温、降水量、蒸发量、最大积雪深度和最大冻土深度等气候资料分析得出,西藏那曲地区东南部的巴木错、蓬错、东错、乃日平错等四个湖泊的水位面积在近30年来呈较显著的扩大趋势,2005年与1975年相比,分别增加了48.2 km²、38.2km²、19.8 km² (比2004年)、26.0 km²,增长幅度分别为25.6%、28.2%、16.2%、37.6%。其主要原因与该地区近年来气温的上升、降水量的增加和蒸发量的减少、冻土退化等暖湿化的气候变化有很大关系。     

1975-2008 年西藏色林错湖面变化对气候变化的响应

根据1975 年地形图、80 年代至2008 年的TM、CBERS 卫星遥感资料和近34 年(1975-2008 年) 的气温、降水量、蒸发量、最大冻土深度等气候资料分析得出,西藏那曲地区西部的色林错及其周围的错鄂、雅根错的面积在近30 年来呈较显著的扩大趋势,到2008 年面积分别为2196.23 km2、279.24 km²、103.07 km²,与1975 年分别增长了574.46 km²、11.59 km2和68.13 km²,增长速度分别为35.4%、4.3%和195%。色林错从1999-2008 年湖面扩大速度为20%,平均上涨了420 km²/10a,已超过纳木错面积,成为西藏第一大咸水湖。冰雪融水量的增加是湖泊上涨的根本原因,其次与降水量的增加和蒸发量的减少、冻土退化等暖湿化的气候变化存在很大关系。     

Impact of climate change on the surface water of Kaidu River Basin

To reveal the changing trend and annual distribution of the surface water hydrology and the local climate in the Bayanbuluk alpine-cold wetlands in the past 50 years, we used temperature, precipitation, different rank precipitation days, evaporation, water vapor pressure, relative humidity, dust storm days and snow depth to analyze their temporal variations. We conclude that there were no distinct changes in annual mean temperature, and no obvious changes in the maximum or minimum temperatures. Precipitation in warm season was the main water source in the wetlands of the study area and accounted for 92.0% of the annual total. Precipitation dropped to the lowest in the mid-1980s in the past 50 years and then increased gradually. The runoff of the Kaidu River has increased since 1987 which has a good linear response to the annual precipitation and mean temperature in Bayanbuluk alpine-cold wetland. Climate change also affected ecosystems in this area due to its direct relations to the surface water environment.     

开都河流域气候变化对地表水的影响

1IntroductionWetlands, forests and oceans are the three main ecosystems with the highest ecological values in the world. According to the data of United Nations Environment Programme in 2002, the annual production value of the wetland ecosystems per hecta…     

卫星遥感检测高原湖泊水面变化及与气候变化分析

对西藏西部的玛旁雍错、中部的纳木错和南部的普莫雍错三大湖泊地区,采用中巴资源卫星自1999年至2007年长时间序列的影像数据,通过最佳波段组合和时相的选取,高精度几何配准和镶嵌以及进行边缘信息提取等处理,绘制湖面变化解译图。并用一景同期ETM 图像作为辅助数据计算湖区地物光谱反射率曲线以辅助分类。为避免个别年份湖面变化出现偶然性,采用几个相邻年份湖面求取平均值的方法统计近年湖面面积。其结果与1984年中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队的数字对比表明,西藏南部的普莫雍错和中部的纳木错湖面有明显扩张,分别扩张了大约4.01%和4.55%;而西部的玛旁雍错近年间变化不大,甚至略有萎缩趋势,相比1984年也仅增长了1.31%。为研究西部地区和中东部地区出现不同变化的主要原因,通过对水位数据和气象特征因子的相关性分析,及对三地区近34年的气象资料,包括年均温度、年均降雨量、年均蒸发量等进行距平均值曲线拟合,发现中东部年均温和降雨量均呈显著增加趋势,而西部降雨量则呈微弱减少趋势。这说明近期湖面的扩张与气象资料分析的变化情况具有很好的一致性,反映遥感方法在湖泊水域变化检测方面具有较高的可用性。     

The response of lake-glacier variations to climate change in Nam Co Catchment,central Tibetan Plateau,during 1970–2000

Based upon the 1970 aero-photo topographic map, and TM/ETM satellite images taken in 1991 and 2000, the authors artificially interpreted boundaries of lake and glaciers in Nam Co Catchment, and quantified lake-glacier area variations in different stages by ＂integrated method＂ with the support of GIS. Results show that from 1970 to 2000, lake area increased from 1942.34 km^2 to 1979.79 km^2 at a rate of 1.27 km^2/a, while glacier area decreased from 167.62 km^2 to 141.88 km^2 at a rate of 0.86 km^2/a. The increasing rate of lake in 1991-2000 was 1.76 km^2/a that was faster than 1.03 km^2/a in 1970-1991, while in the same period of time, the shrinking rates of glaciers were 0.97 km^2/a and 0.80 km^2/a respectively. Important factors, relevant to lake and glacier response to the climate, such as air temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and their values in warm and cold seasons, were discussed. The result suggests that temperature increasing is the main reason for the accelerated melting of glaciers. Lake expansion is mainly induced by the increase of the glacier melting water, increase of precipitation and obvious decrease of potential evapotranspiration. Precipitation, evaporation and their linkages with lake enlargement on regional scale need to be thoroughly studied under the background of global warming and glacier retreating.     

纳木错流域近30年来湖泊-冰川变化对气候的响应

Based upon the 1970 aero-photo topographic map, and TM/ETM satellite images taken in 1991 and 2000, the authors artificially interpreted boundaries of lake and glaciers in Nam Co Catchment, and quantified lake-glacier area variations in different stages by "inte-grated method" with the support of GIS. Results show that from 1970 to 2000, lake area in-creased from 1942.34 km2 to 1979.79 km2 at a rate of 1.27 km2/a, while glacier area de-creased from 167.62 km2 to 141.88 km2 at a rate of 0.86 km2/a. The increasing rate of lake in 1991-2000 was 1.76 km2/a that was faster than 1.03 km2/a in 1970-1991, while in the same period of time, the shrinking rates of glaciers were 0.97 km2/a and 0.80 km2/a respectively.Important factors, relevant to lake and glacier response to the climate, such as air tempera-ture, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and their values in warm and cold seasons,were discussed. The result suggests that temperature increasing is the main reason for the accelerated melting of glaciers. Lake expansion is mainly induced by the increase of the gla-cier melting water, increase of precipitation and obvious decrease of potential evapotranspi-ration. Precipitation, evaporation and their linkages with lake enlargement on regional scale need to be thoroughly studied under the background of global warming and glacier retreating.     

近46年松木希错流域冰川和湖泊变化及原因分析

采用1:5万地形图、Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像及数字高程模型数据,利用遥感和地理信息系统技术,并结合狮泉河、和田和于田3个气象站点1968-2013年的气温、降水量数据对松木希错流域的冰川、湖泊面积变化及其原因进行分析。结果表明：① 1968-2013年流域冰川面积不断退缩,由139.25 km²减少至137.27±0.02 km²,共减少1.98±0.02 km²,减少百分比为1.42%,2001年以后冰川退缩速度加快;② 1968-2013年松木希错面积不断扩张,由25.05 km²增加至32.62±0.02 km²,共扩张7.57±0.02 km²,扩张百分比为30.22%,且2001年之后扩张速率加快,在年代际上与冰川的退缩具有较好的耦合性;③ 1968-2013年湖面潜在蒸散量减少和降水增加分别是导致湖泊扩张的第一和第二影响因素,而升温引起的冰川、冻土融水增加有一定贡献,但影响较小且在年际尺度上不显著。     

The response of lake-glacier variations to climate change in Nam Co Catchment, central Tibetan Plateau, during 1970–2000

Based upon the 1970 aero-photo topographic map, and TM/ETM satellite images taken in 1991 and 2000, the authors artificially interpreted boundaries of lake and glaciers in Nam Co Catchment, and quantified lake-glacier area variations in different stages by “inte-grated method” with the support of GIS. Results show that from 1970 to 2000, lake area in-creased from 1942.34 km2 to 1979.79 km2 at a rate of 1.27 km2/a, while glacier area de-creased from 167.62 km2 to 141.88 km2 at a rate of 0.86 km2/a. The increasing rate of lake in 1991–2000 was 1.76 km2/a that was faster than 1.03 km2/a in 1970–1991, while in the same period of time, the shrinking rates of glaciers were 0.97 km2/a and 0.80 km2/a respectively. Important factors, relevant to lake and glacier response to the climate, such as air tempera-ture, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and their values in warm and cold seasons, were discussed. The result suggests that temperature increasing is the main reason for the accelerated melting of glaciers. Lake expansion is mainly induced by the increase of the gla-cier melting water, increase of precipitation and obvious decrease of potential evapotranspi-ration. Precipitation, evaporation and their linkages with lake enlargement on regional scale need to be thoroughly studied under the background of global warming and glacier retreating.     

内蒙古干湿环境演变与地区生态建设优势气候背景分析

通过内蒙古地区近46 a降水和潜在蒸散量以及湿润度在气温突变前后的倾向率和差值变化分析,得出该区域主要植被类型干湿环境演变的时空变化特征。研究结果表明：降水在气温突变前“东增西减”,突变后呈相反的变化趋势。46 a降水倾向率增加区域主要集中在呼伦贝尔市东部和乌兰察布市以西大部地区;潜在蒸散量在气温突变前呈减少趋势,突变后有增加趋势,突变后潜在蒸散量明显小于突变前。内蒙古46 a潜在蒸散量倾向率大部地区偏小,偏大区域仅存在于中东部偏北地区,气温突变后全区大部地区存在明显的“蒸发悖论”;大兴安岭西麓和乌兰察布市以西地区突变后湿润度增加明显,暖湿的气候环境有利于当地植被建设和生态恢复,内蒙古东南部、呼伦贝尔草原和锡林郭勒盟草原区有暖干化趋势,上述草原区存在潜在退化风险。     

云南三江并流地区气候变化及其对生态环境的影响

利用EOF等方法通过计算1971-2000年30年来云南三江并流地区6个气象台站气温、降水、蒸发资料，分析了云南三江并流地区近30年来气候变化的异常特征及其对生态环境的影响，结果表明：云南三江并流地区气候变化表现为气温升高、降水略有减少和蒸发增大的干旱化气候变化趋势，同时，在气候干旱化和人为活动的影响下出现草场退化、冰川萎缩、雪线上升、土壤沙化和水土流失等生态环境荒漠化问题。     

西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展

西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一,研究分析全球变暖背景下的西北干旱区水资源问题,对应对和适应未来气候变化带来的影响具有重要意义。本文通过对西北干旱区气候变暖影响下的水资源形成、转化与水循环等关键问题最新研究成果的总结分析,得出如下结论：(1) 西北干旱区温度、降水在过去的50年出现过“突变型”升高,但进入21世纪,温度和降水均处于高位震荡,升高趋势减弱;(2) 西北干旱区冬季温度的大幅升高是拉动年均温度抬升的重要原因,而西伯利亚高压活动和二氧化碳排放是引起冬季升温的重要影响因素;(3) 西北干旱区蒸发潜力在1993年出现了一个明显的转折变化,由显著下降逆转为显著上升的趋势。气候变暖、蒸发水平增大对西北干旱区生态效应的负作用已经凸显;(4) 西北干旱区冰川变化对水资源量及年内分配产生了重要影响,部分河流已经出现冰川消融拐点。在塔里木河流域,冰川融水份额较大 (50%),可能在未来一段时期,河川径流还将处在高位状态波动。全球气候变暖在加大极端气候水文事件发生频率和强度的同时,加剧了西北干旱区内陆河流域的水文波动和水资源的不确定性。     

流域水热条件和植被状况对青海湖水位的影响

湖泊是陆地水资源的重要组成部分,也是局地气候和全球环境变化的敏感指示器之一。湖泊面积增加和水位的变化直接反映了流域内水量平衡变化过程,对区域和全球的气候变化的反映较为敏感。利用线性趋势法对青海湖流域长时间序列气象、水文资料以及流域水热条件和植被生长状况进行分析研究,利用皮尔逊相关系数法计算了各因素与湖水位的相关关系,旨在定量评估区域气象、水文、植被等要素的变化对和湖泊水位变化过程的贡献,开展细致的青海湖水位变化特征的影响因子探讨与分析。结果表明：该流域气候呈现显著的暖湿化趋势,其中流域年降水量总体上呈现弱的增加态势,气候倾向率为10.8 mm·（10 a）^-1;流域年平均气温呈显著的升高趋势（P <0.01）。流域年可能蒸散率和年实际蒸散波动较大,年实际蒸散虽有波动但增加趋势非常明显（P <0.01）。流域净第一性生产力（P）平均值为2.86 t DM·hm^-2·a^-1,呈现显著的增加趋势（P <0.01）。从1961年开始湖水位呈现逐年波动下降的趋势,到2004年水位最低（P<0.01）;2004—2015年的近10 a连续上升,上升速率达14.4 m·（10 a）^-1（P <0.01）。流域气温升高、降水量增加,流域气候呈显著的暖湿化特征,入湖河流径流量也呈现出弱的增加态势;气候暖湿化特征导致流域生物温度增加,植被生长状况得到改善,[WTBX]NPP[WTBZ]显著增加。年降水量增多,河流径流量增大,湖水位抬升;前一年的降水量、≥0 ℃积温、温度、径流量、NPP和蒸发量对湖水位的影响更大;NDVI和NPP的增加反映流域植被生长状况得到好转,从而增加了流域植被水土保持和水源涵养能力,对湖水位产生间接的影响。降水量、≥0 ℃积温、温度、径流量和NPP对青海湖水位起到正反馈效应,而蒸发量对湖水位主要起负反馈效应,年降水量和年径流量是湖水位变化的最直接的影响因子。     

The influence of Asian summer monsoon variability on the water balance of a Tibetan lake

Past water-balance changes in Tibetan lakes are generally attributed to changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. However, the water balance of a lake reflects many different water fluxes, which are controlled by many climatic and hydrologic processes. In this research, weather data and evaporation models are used to determine the climatic cause of a recent water-balance change in Ahung Co, a lake in central Tibet. Between 1995 and 2001, lake level rose at least 20 cm and the lake began to overflow. Results indicate that an increase in summer monsoon precipitation over the lake and drainage basin is responsible for the rise in lake level. Stronger monsoon conditions between 1995 and 2001 also led to decreased lake evaporation and basin evapotranspiration due to increased clouds and humidity. This contributed to the rise in lake level, but to a much smaller extent than the increase in monsoon precipitation. Lake evaporation during the spring and fall was also reduced between 1995 and 2001 due to longer lasting ice cover. Variations in ice cover play a small role in the overall water balance of Ahung Co, however, because the lake area is small compared to the drainage basin area. If these results hold true for the past, water-balance fluctuations inferred from the geochemistry of sediments from Ahung Co provide a record of variations in monsoon precipitation during the Holocene.     

中国北方地区40年来湿润指数和气候干湿带界线的变化

本文研究了中国北方地区 196 1～ 2 0 0 0年 4 0年间气候干湿带界线分布和 10年际变化。 4 0年来中国北方地区 ,在东经 10 0°以东地区 ,半干旱区和半湿润区的分界线不断波动向东推进 ,2 0世纪 90年代比 6 0年代向东和向南扩展 ,半干旱区面积扩大 ,半湿润区面积缩小 ,气候趋向干旱化 ;东经 10 0°以西地区 ,极端干旱区面积在缩小 ,湿润指数有增大趋势。如果把温度和湿润指数相结合 ,东经 10 0°以东的黄淮海区和黄土高原区为持续的干暖型 ;东经 10 0°以西的西北地区 ,则由干暖型向湿暖型转变 :河西走廊和东疆盆地转型的时间发生在 2 0世纪 70年代初 ,北疆山地绿洲荒漠地区转型的时间发生 2 0世纪 80年代中期前后。气候干湿带界线的变化取决于降水和潜在蒸发的变化速率。 4 0年来 ,在东经 10 0°以东地区 ,降水和潜在蒸发都呈下降趋势 ,但降水减少速率大于潜在蒸发下降速率 ;在东经 10 0°以西地区变湿的原因 ,研究认为除了降水有所增加外 ,潜在蒸发也在下降 ,而且潜在蒸发下降速率的绝对值大于降水增加速率。     

近40 a巴丹吉林沙漠腹地湖泊面积变化及其影响因素

 利用1973、1990、2000年和2010年4期Landsat遥感影像资料为信息源,运用目视解译和波段比值的方法得到不同时相巴丹吉林沙漠腹地湖泊信息,分析其变化特征,结合沙漠周边降水数据,通过水量收支平衡关系对湖泊群变化因素进行了初步探讨。结果表明,沙漠湖泊在各时期发生了不同程度的萎缩。1973—2010年间,湖泊总数由94个减少到82个,共减少了12个,总面积减少了3.69 km2。其中,1973—1990年间湖泊萎缩最快。对沙漠湖泊面积进行统计分级后发现,湖泊的萎缩主要发生在面积小于0.2 km2的湖泊中,萎缩速率由快到慢;面积大于0.9 km2的湖泊面积发生不同程度的波动。湖泊群面积变化基本不受人为因素影响,也不是当地气候变化直接作用的结果,地下补给源水量变化是导致湖泊面积变化的主要因素。     

纳木错流域冰川和湖泊变化对气候变化的响应

利用纳木错流域及其周边地区气象资料、地形图、遥感资料以及野外实地观测资料,对该流域过去37年来气候变化特征以及冰川、湖泊变化过程进行了分析.结果表明,自1970年以来,纳木错区域气温上升趋势明显,其中冬季升温幅度高于夏季;降水量变化冬、夏两季均呈增加趋势,但冬季增加量不显著.在整体升温的背景下,纳木错流域冰川整体呈退缩趋势.1970～2007年间,流域内冰川面积减少37.1 km~2,占流域冰川面积的18.2%,年变化率为-1.0 km~2/a.流域内扎当冰川和拉弄冰川末端GPS观测表明,1970～2008年间冰川末端分别退缩381.8 m和489.5 m,年均退缩量为10.3 m和13.4 m.1970-2007年间,纳木错湖面积增加了72.6 km~2,增加速率为2.0 km~2/a.1970-1991年、1991-2000年和2000-2007年三个阶段的年增加速率不断增大,分别为1.1、2.8、3.4 km~2/a;湖泊水在在夏季升高非常显著,与湖泊面积的扩张是一致的.     

近35 a来中国北方土地沙漠化趋势的遥感分析

 以近35 a来中国北方的5期 Landsat MSS、TM/ETM遥感数据为主要信息源,通过目视解译方法提取不同时期沙漠化土地现状数据,并进行了沙漠化发展趋势的分析。 2010年中国北方沙漠化土地达 37.59万km2,其中轻度沙漠化土地占33.80%,中度沙漠化土地占22.84%,重度沙漠化土地占22.16%,严重沙漠化土地面积占21.21%。 1975—1990年期间,沙漠化土地净增面积33 838.32 km2,增加速率为2 255.89 km2·a-1; 沙漠化程度加重面积41 662.48 km2,减轻8 383.20 km2,净加重面积33 279.28 km2。综合两者变化,沙漠化净发展速率为4 474.51 km2·a-1。1990—2000年,沙漠化土地面积净增速率为3 441.49 km2·a-1,净发展速率为5 370.06 km2·a-1。2000—2005年,沙漠化土地面积净减少速率为1 635.28 km2·a-1,净逆转速率为1 0071.02 km2·a-1。2005—2010年,净减少1 114.35 km2·a-1,净逆转7 552.21 km2·a-1。空间上沙漠化发展和逆转发生的区域主要在半干旱地区的农牧交错带。     

城市化及湖泊湿地修复对银川市气候影响初探

利用银川市国家基准气象站及受人类活动影响较少的麻黄山气象站1961—2015年气温、降水及相对湿度资料,对比分析了城市化及湖泊湿地修复对银川市城市气候演变的影响。结果表明：随着银川市城市化规模的不断扩大,整个城市的暖干化程度日趋严重,城市周边湖泊湿地的修复和重建对银川市大范围气候的调节作用明显弱于城市化的影响。具体表现为：自1961年以来,银川站年平均气温上升速率为0.46 ℃·(10 a) ^-1,比麻黄山站快0.16 ℃·(10 a)^-1,银川市城市化使城市内年平均气温较对比站麻黄山站升高1.1 ℃,特别是2001—2015年上升了0.8 ℃,2011—2015年上升了0.5 ℃,其中冬季上升快,夏季相对稳定,气温年较差减小;从1975年以来,银川市年平均空气相对湿度下降了11.2 %。