A GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment and delineation of a methodology for future risk assessment: case study for Annotto Bay,Jamaica

Natural Hazards - Flood risk assessments and damage estimations form integral parts of the disaster risk management in Jamaica, owing its vulnerability to hydrometeorological hazards. Although...     

GIS-based geo-environmental evaluation for urban land-use planning: a case study

A geo-environmental evaluation for urban land-use planning often requires a large amount of spatial information. Geographic information systems (GIS) are capable of managing large amounts of spatially related information, providing the ability to integrate multiple layers of information and to derive additional information. A GIS-aid to the geo-environmental evaluation for urban land-use planning is illustrated for the urban area of Lanzhou City and its vicinity in Northwest China. This evaluation incorporates topography, surficial and bedrock geology, groundwater conditions, and historic geologic hazards. Urban land-use is categorized according to the types of land-use and projects planned, such as high-rise building, multi-storey building, low-rise building, waste disposal, and natural conservation. Multi-criteria analysis is performed to evaluate development suitability of the geo-environment for each category, according to appropriately measured and weighted factors. A suitability map for each category is developed using an algorithm that combines factors in weighted linear combinations. It is demonstrated that the GIS methodology has high functionality for geo-environmental assessment.     

一种基于GIS建立数字古高程模型的方法

随着GIS和3D技术的不断成熟,古地理重建已从传统的二维古地理图的绘制,逐渐向含地形地貌特征的三维可视化方向发展。对此,作者提出一种基于GIS技术建立数字古高程模型的方法:首先以不同年代的岩相古地理图为基础,结合解释的古高程和古水深范围,进行古地形地貌的复原;然后利用相关数学算法及GIS方法对等值线图进行空间插值渲染及3D表达。以晚侏罗世拉萨地体为例,对该方法流程进行了详细的介绍。结果表明按照文中设计的方法,对古地理环境进行近似的3D渲染复原是可行的,生成的数字古高程模型能够正确且直观地反应古地理图上沉积相所指示的地形地貌特征。该研究将计算机和GIS技术应用于古地理重建工作,为中国古地理重建的信息化发展提供了一种新的研究方法和手段。     

An integrated GIS-based approach for geohazards risk assessment in coal mines

From the viewpoint of safety in underground coal mining, the most suitable mining panel is the one with minimum geological structures, the right machinery, and equipment selection, trained employee, and proficient stope management. Since the ground parameters are uncontrollable and inherent uncertainties exist, a high percent of risk will usually accompany the underground coal mining activities. The main purpose of this study is to present a geological–geotechnical risk assessment model for identification of high risk-prone areas in underground coal mines using an integrated GIS-geostatistics system. Tabas as the first mechanized and largest underground coal mine in Iran was selected as a case study in this study. Gas content of coal seam, Coal Mine Roof Rating (CMRR), initial in situ stress state, fault throw, and orientation were selected as hazard/risk factors. For estimating the amount of coal seam gas content, CMRR and initial in situ stress in unsampled areas and providing the prediction maps, geostatistics module in ArcGIS was used. Rock engineering system–interaction matrix method was used for attribute weight assignment. Next, the attribute layers were weighted, rated, and overlaid to create a final map of geohazards risk. The analysis results of final risk map indicate that about 45% of under study area is prone to high to very high geohazards risk. Comparison of the results with experiences obtained during the early part of the mine and mined-out panels showed generally good agreement with promising ideas. This highlights the potential application of the GIS-based approach for hazards detection and geohazards risk assessment in underground coal mines.     

城市地下空间地质安全风险三维评价方法与实践

城市地下空间地质安全风险三维评价是合理进行地下空间立体化开发、降低开发地质风险的重要手段,但目前尚缺乏系统的研究,工作方法体系仍有待深入探讨。本文在前人工作基础上,对城市地下空间地质安全风险的类型、地质诱因与核心评价指标,以及传统二维评价的局限性进行归纳总结,并结合三维地质建模、三维评价指标体系以及三维空间分析等关键三维方法技术,提出了一套较为系统的城市地下空间地质安全风险三维评价技术方法体系。为验证方法的有效性,在南京市江北新区开展了城市地下空间地质安全风险三维评价实例研究,取得了较好的效果。研究显示该方法体系能够显著提升三维尺度下地下空间地质安全风险评价精度和准确性,为立体化地下空间开发提供有力支持。     

基于GIS的重点区域地质灾害风险评价

为治理河口拦门沙,实施了通过整治及疏浚的方式打通拦门沙的射阳港双导堤工程,导堤的功能定位为“导流、挡沙、减淤”。通过对江苏盐城射阳港海岸动力地貌等环境的调查,分析研究射阳港区不同时期的水下沉积物分布特征、不同历史时期的水下地形特征,同时研究不同时期的水质、底质沉积物、生态群落等指标数据,对射阳港双导堤建设的环境影响进行后评价。研究认为：双导堤工程完工后导堤口区域出现明显冲刷,导堤两侧出现淤积,颗粒变细,但对水质环境、底质沉积物环境和生态环境的影响不大,双导堤工程建设对环境影响的风险可控。     

GIS-based evaluation of rockfall risk along routes in Greece

This article presents a GIS-based system, designed to assist in the management of rockfall risk along Greek routes. The system was developed in two stages; the field data collection led to the implementation of a rockfall rating system with its fundamental parameters, while the data process concluded to a rockfall data base and a GIS-based interface. The fundamental parameters were derived from the rockfall hazard rating system developed by Pierson et al. at the Oregon State Highway Division and provide a coherent approach to decide the type and the cost of protection measures to be applied in an area affected by rockfalls and presents highest rockfall risk. The system presented in this paper as well as the original system comprises exponential scoring functions that represent the increased hazard and reflected in nine categories forming the classification. The method presented in this paper modified certain categories from the original system which were described qualitatively and may lead to quite subjective estimations. These categories are ditch effectiveness; climate and presence of water on slope as well as rockfall history. Moreover, the original category “Geologic characteristic” was changed to Structural and Discontinuities Index; an index that relates blockiness of rock mass and orientation of joints with their weathering condition and their roughness. This index follows the classification of weathering and joint’s roughness suggested by International Society of Rock Mechanics, while other modifications regarding the categories “decision sight distance” and “roadway width” were applied based on Greek standards. An application of this modified method to a 3 km road which connects Athinios port and Fira, the capital of Santorini island, Greece, a high traffic intensity road where rockfalls periodically cause traffic interruptions is presented. The method was applied in fifteen cross sections of slopes adjacent to the road and the analyses showed increased risk and the need for urgent remedial works.     

基于改进填洼模型的城市洪涝灾害计算方法

城市水文模型广泛应用于城市雨洪管理研究中,但由于它无法直接给出流域的淹没情况,制约了其在城市洪涝灾害评价中的应用,因此,有必要对其进行改进。本研究开发了考虑下游影响的填洼模型,并将其与较为成熟的城市水文模型相耦合,使改进后的模型可以模拟流域的淹没状况,并在北京市天堂河流域进行了试验研究。结果表明:改进后的模型可以快速模拟流域的淹没水深及淹没范围,其淹没水深结果与相关水动力学方法模拟结果较为一致。天堂河流域河道行洪能力低于20年一遇设计标准,流域洪水风险较大的区域集中在天堂河下游区域和田营沟与永北干渠的交汇处。若在下游区域进行开发,洪水风险还可能会继续增加。     

Probabilistic winter storm risk assessment for residential buildings in Germany

Losses resulting from winter storms contribute a significant part to the overall losses among all natural hazards in most mid-latitude European countries. A realistic assessment of storm risk is therefore essential for prevention and coping measures. The paper presents a framework for probabilistic storm risk assessment for residential buildings which is exemplarily performed for Germany. Two different approaches are described, and results are presented. The hazard-based approach brings together hazard, vulnerability and building assets to calculate risk curves for each community. The storm-based approach uses loss information from past storm events to calculate statistical return periods of severe storms. As a result, a return period of 83 years to the most severe storm series in 1990 is calculated. Average annual losses of €170 million to residential buildings are calculated for all over Germany. The study demonstrates how the approaches complement each other and how validation is performed.     

基于GIS的北京地区泥石流危险度区划

泥石流是北京市山区的主要地质灾害类型之一,文章将北京市以3km×3km的网格进行剖分,选取地形、地层岩性、构造、灾害因子及降水5个因素作为泥石流危险度区划的指标,基于GIS对北京市泥石流危险程度进行了区划。其结果可为北京市开展泥石流预警预报、减灾防灾规划和山区经济建设布局等提供科学参考依据。     

高堆石坝中期度汛挡水风险率估计

在考虑高堆石坝坝体中期临时挡水度汛不允许坝面过水条件下,综合考虑坝前洪水位与防洪度汛高程的随机性,构建高堆石坝工程中期度汛挡水风险数学模型.针对堆石坝施工系统的特点,考虑各月停工天数与日平均上升速度的随机性,建立了防洪度汛高程仿真计算模型.基于Monte-Carlo方法原理,耦合水文、水力和施工随机因素对风险模型进行求解,并研究了日均控制最低上升速度这一施工可控指标对风险率的影响.通过大渡河流域某大型工程实例分析表明,风险模型与计算方法可行、有效.     

UAV-borne,LiDAR-based elevation modelling: a method for improving local-scale urban flood risk assessment

Natural Hazards - In this study, we present the first findings of the potential utility of miniaturized light and detection ranging (LiDAR) scanners mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for...     

城市泥石流风险评价探讨

探讨了城市泥石流风险评价的系统方法,该方法包括泥石流扇形地危险区划、城市易损性分析和城市泥石流风险评价三个主要内容。泥石流堆积扇危险区划是基于数值模拟计算出的泥深和流速分布图进行叠合完成的。以美国高分辨率的“快鸟”卫星影像为数据源,完成了研究区的城市土地覆盖类型遥感解译,在此基础上完成了城市泥石流易损性分析,应用地理信息系统提供的统计和分析工具,完成了研究区泥石流风险评价。该风险区划图可用于指导对泥石流易泛区的不同风险地带的土地利用进行规划和决策,从而达到规避和减轻灾害的目的,也为生活在泥石流危险区的城市居民提供有关灾害风险信息,以作避难和灾害防治的依据。     

An integrated GIS-based method for wind-power estimation: application to western Cyprus

This study presents an integrated method for the estimation and analysis of potential wind-energy resources in Cyprus, which is applied at selected sites on the western side of the island. Firstly, a statistical analysis of wind speed and direction data was conducted at six meteorological stations in western Cyprus, establishing daily, monthly and annual variations of wind speed. Also examined were the Weibull distributions of the wind at each site. These wind statistics serve as the basis for estimating corrected statistical distributions over the extended study areas, which were calculated using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) that modifies wind flow estimates based on local topographic effects. As a result, a geographic and wind-resource database was formulated around each station. Aggregation of this data using statistical weighting methods allows the extrapolation of observed results and the visualization for selected hours of the day over the western part of Cyprus. The results indicate the strong influence of the sea-breeze on the island’s wind potential, and identify a number of areas of higher wind-energy potential suitable for wind-resource exploitation. It is hoped that both the methodology applied and results obtained can be further used by potential investors and wind-energy developers.     

城市洪涝中雨水口泄流能力的试验研究

近年来中国城市洪涝灾害频发,对人民群众的生命财产安全造成了严重威胁,其中雨水口泄流能力的大小对于计算受淹区的积水程度或路面雨水的排除效率至关重要。为此本研究专门修建了具有上下两层结构的城市洪涝过程综合试验平台,考虑雨篦子、雨水井及侧支管等完整的雨水口结构,开展了76组不同来流水深及流速下的雨水口泄流能力试验。试验结果表明:雨水口的下泄流量在井身充满前后表现出不同的变化规律,即在雨水井充满前,路面雨水以堰流形式下泄;在雨水井充满后,以管嘴出流形式下泄。基于试验数据率定出雨水口堰流及管嘴出流时的流量系数,并进一步采用量纲分析法,建立雨水口的泄流能力与雨篦子尺寸、篦前水流的弗劳德数等因素之间的经验关系,具有较高的相关系数。采用本文公式计算原型尺寸雨水口的泄流能力,并与中国现行雨水口泄流能力的参考值进行对比,发现当水深较大时现行参考值偏大较多。本研究成果能为精细化的城市洪涝管理提供计算依据。     

Early warning system for detection of urban pluvial flooding hazard levels in an ungauged basin

Prolonged and high intensity rainfall often saturates urban drainage systems and generates urban pluvial flooding, resulting in hazardous flash floods. The city most affected by urban flooding in Colombia (South America) is Barranquilla since lacks a proper storm water drainage system. Heavy rainfall produces flash floods to quickly become torrential streams that flow down the streets endangering pedestrians. This research describes a low-cost early warning system (EWS) to detect in real time the hazard level of a stream in an ungauged basin. The EWS indicates whether it is safe or not for pedestrians to cross a flooded street, based on certain criteria used to assess the hazard level of the torrent. A hydrological and hydraulic model calculates the flow, velocity and water level in all cross sections along the stream. The model uses only real-time measurements of rain gauges and topographic survey data to determine the hazard level. Finally, a wireless sensor network sends the alert to a web platform and warns the community in real time.

     

Probabilistic formulation of a method for the evaluation of petroleum resources

Since 1973 the Geological Survey of Canada has been making estimates of the petroleum resources for Canadian sedimentary basins. The purpose of this activity has been to provide a systematic approach to making an inventory of petroleum resources for departmental planning purposes. The resource evaluation was processed by the Hydrocarbon Assessment System Processor (HASP), devised by the Geological Survey of Canada. Since then, demands on the evaluation capability have increased and at the same time evaluation data have been increasingly applied to economic analyses. HASP can no longer be adapted to handle the new challenges. This study contains a probabilistic formulation for HASP and establishes a framework from which the following may be calculated: (1)distribution of number of pools; (2)expected rth largest pool size and its distribution; and (3)generation of reservoir parameters for a given pool size. Play 10 from the East Coast of Canada was used as an example to illustrate the applications of the analytical approach presented. This paper demonstrates that the analytical approach has more to offer than HASP.     

基于GIS的人工神经网络模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用

地质灾害区域评价和危险性区划结果的准确与否,主要取决于基础地质资料的可靠性及数学模型的合理性.为了提高数据的可靠性,利用GIS,在其支持下管理多源基础地学数据,进行数据处理,提取因素图层,剖分形成评价图元区域.然后在GIS基础上进行二次开发,将人工神经网络模型和GIS有机整合,这样GIS既为人工神经网络模型提供评价数据,又处理其评价结果数据,成图输出.本文遵从上述思路,结合长江三峡示范区(巴东-新滩)具体实例,探讨了人工神经网络和GIS结合(基于GIS的人工神经网络)的可能性和现实途径及其在区域地质灾害危险性区划中的应用前景.这种思路同样也适合其他数学模型与GIS的结合.     

GIS-based multi-dimensional risk assessment of the grassland fire in northern China

This study presents a methodology for risk analysis and assessment to manage grassland fire in northern China based on the Geographical Information Systems from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, and environmental science and so on. Using natural disaster and risk assessment theory, a multi-dimensional grassland fire risk index (MGFRI) was proposed by integrating weighted comprehensive method, analytic hierarchy process, and fuzzy gamma method into natural disaster risk index. The developed MGFRI will be an easily understandable tool to manage grassland fire by comparing the risk of regions in the northern China and relative contributions of various factors, for example, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and management ability. A scale of one to five was derived to measure the risk degree. It shows that 4.4?% of grassland falls in the category of ??very high?? risk, followed by 9.6, 19.1, 60.9, and 5.9?%, respectively, in the categories ??high??, ??middle??, ??low??, and ??very low??. The assessment results show reliability by test. The results in this study are intended to support local, provincial, and national government agencies to: (1) make resource allocation decisions; (2) make high-level planning decisions; and (3) raise public awareness of grassland fire risk, its causes, and ways to manage it.