基于高分辨率层序地层学的测井曲线小波分析模型

以高分辨率层序地层学为指导,以中期基准面上升半旋回和下降半旋回为基本的研究单元,建立其理想的层序地层模型和相应的测井曲线模型,通过Morlet小波对测井曲线模型进行分析,建立中期基准面旋回的小波分析模型,分析小波模型对不同基准面旋回的响应特征。然后以由不同样式中期基准面旋回叠加而成的长期基准面上升半旋回、下降半旋回为研究对象,建立其理想的层序地层模型和测井曲线模型,并利用Morlet小波对测井曲线模型进行分析,建立不同样式长期基准面旋回的小波分析模型,分析小波模型对长期基准面旋回及其内部中期基准面旋回单元、旋回界面的响应特征。史134井实例分析表明,不同样式的基准面旋回的小波分析模型能够有效地应用于层序单元及层序界面的识别和划分,对层序地层学的研究起到较好的指导意义。     

放射性核素在地下介质中迁移机理与模型研究

介绍了铀尾矿库的物理、化学概念模型和其中重金属、放射性核素迁移的一般过程 ;论述了沉淀作用、络合作用和胶体作用对放射性核素迁移的影响 ;重点讨论了描述吸附作用的离子交换模型和表面络合模型的建模机理 ;对定量模拟放射性核素迁移行为的 Kd模型、表面络合模型及“反应 -运移模型”的应用进行了评述。     

海洋初级生产力的卫星遥感

从海水的光学特性入手,依据卫[JP2]星探测海洋初级生产力的基本原理,详细讨论了大气校正过程,并较为全面地阐述了现有的一些海洋初级生产力模式。通过列举个例对这些模式进行分类讨论,并对模式应用中的一些问题作出了分析和讨论,在此基础上指出了其存在的问题和发展的方向。     

Evaluation of generalized linear models for soil liquefaction probability prediction

A soil deposit subjected to seismic loading can be viewed as a binary system: it will either liquefy or not liquefy. Generalized linear models are versatile tools for predicting the response of a binary system and hence potentially applicable to liquefaction prediction. In this study, the applicability of four generalized linear models (i.e., logistic, probit, log–log, and c-log–log) for liquefaction potential evaluation is assessed and compared. Eight liquefaction models based on the four generalized linear models and two sets of explanatory variables are evaluated. These models are first calibrated with past liquefaction performance data. A weighted-likelihood function method is used to consider the sampling bias in the calibration database. The predicted liquefaction probabilities from various models are then compared. When liquefaction probability is small, the predicted liquefaction probability is sensitive to the regression models used. The effect of sampling bias is more marked in the high cyclic stress ratio region. The eight models are finally ranked using a Bayesian model comparison method. For the generalized linear models examined, the logistic and c-log–log regression models are most supported by the past performance data. On the other hand, the probit and c-log–log regression models are much less applicable to liquefaction prediction.     

流域水文模型的发展

本文列出了当今世界上比较流行的15个流域水文模型。对现行概念性集总式流域水文模型的结构和参数的特点进行了评论,指出了这类流域水文模型存在的主要缺陷。对新一代流域水文模型, 即分布式流域水文模型,尤其是其中具有物理基础的分布式流域水文模型,进行了较为深入的分析,指出其之所以优于集总式流域水文模型的主要原因。最后对流域水文模型进一步发展所必须具备的理论和技术条件做了初步讨论。     

分布式水文模型构建理论与方法述评

回顾了分布式水文模型的发展历程,分析总结了分布式水文模型的构建理论与方法,并对其关键内核——“物理基础”的含义做了深入而新颖的分析。分析了两类当前比较活跃的模型——分布式物理模型与分布式概念性模型中存在的问题及发展前景,并探讨了综合二者之长的具有物理基础的松散型分布式水文模型的构建思路,以及学者们期待中的基于确定性与随机性耦合的分布式水文模型。     

普通铅同位素演化系统模式

已有的几种普通铅同位素模式仅反映了一些封闭体系铅同位素混合的特殊情况,不便于有效地应用于地质历史时期复杂的地质作用过程。本文应用概率论方法,从理论上分析包括开放体系在内的13种不同系统普通铅同位素混合的23种情况,讨论各种情况下铅同位素资料的地质年代学意义与地质事件发生年代的计算方法,从而建立多阶段铅同位素演化的系统模式。应用读系统模式研究燕山地区的成岩成矿时代,所得结果与其它方法测出的年龄一致。     

拉伸荷载作用下岩石的细观损伤力学模型

本文建立了拉伸荷载作用下岩石的二维、轴对称和三维细观损伤力学的有效场模型，分析了岩石中的裂纹扩展过程，求得了损伤柔度的表达式，并给出了相应的算例，数值模拟结果与Ｔａｙｌｏｒ模型和自洽模型的计算结果以及实验结果进行了对比，结果表明Ｔａｙｌｏｒ模型和自洽模型的数值模拟结果与实验结果有较大的误差，而本文提出的数值模拟结果则与实验结果具有很好的一致性。     

非饱和带裂隙岩体渗流的特点和概念模型

非饱和带裂隙岩体中的渗流和饱和带相比有其不同的特点,包括毛细管流、薄膜流、优先流和裂隙-基质相互作用等。这些特点导致非饱和带裂隙岩体中的渗流具有相当的非均质性。笔者描述了裂隙岩体中非饱和渗流的这些特点,并简单讨论了目前所存在的模拟非饱和渗流的概念模型。     

分布式水文模型的进展及展望

分布式水文模型是当前水文建模领域最为活跃的研究方向,是解决流域水文、生态和环境问题的有效的途径.讨论了分布式水文模型的结构、与地理信息系统和遥感技术的关系、参数标定、应用领域等问题,指出分布式水文模型发展面临的问题并展望了未来的发展方向.     

Mortar coupling and upscaling of pore-scale models

Pore-scale models are becoming increasingly useful as predictive tools for modeling flow and transport in porous media. These models can accurately represent the 3D pore-structure of real media. Currently first-principles modeling methods are being employed for obtaining qualitative and quantitative behavior. Generally, artificial, simple boundary conditions are imposed on a model that is used as a stand-alone tool for extracting macroscopic parameters. However, realistic boundary conditions, reflecting flow and transport in surrounding media, may be necessary for behavior that occurs over larger length scales or including pore-scale models in a multiscale setting. Here, pore-scale network models are coupled to adjacent media (additional pore-scale or continuum-scale models) using mortars. Mortars are 2D finite-element spaces employed to couple independent subdomains by enforcing continuity of pressure and flux at shared boundary interfaces. While mortars have been used in the past to couple subdomains of different models, physics, and meshes, they are extended here for the first time to pore-scale models. The approach is demonstrated by modeling single-phase flow in coupled pore-scale models, but the methodology can be utilized to model dynamic processes and perform multiscale modeling in 3D continuum simulators for flow and transport.     

裂隙岩体溶质运移模型综述

本文综述了裂隙岩体系统中溶质运移的概念模型和数学模型。分析了目前各种裂隙岩体系统中溶质运移的数学模型的适用性和优缺点，为选取合理的数学模型求解具体的问题提供了参考依据。最后提出了有待进一步研究的问题。     

湖泊及水库富营养化模型研究综述

以湖泊及水库的富营养化研究的发展为主线,着重介绍了三类富营养化模型,即:单一营养物质负荷模型,浮游植物与营养盐相关模型,生态动力学模型。通过对目前国内外常用富营养化模型的建立思路和应用实例进行概括和描述。对不同模型的优缺点和适用范围进行了分析比较,对水体富营养化研究的最新发展趋势进行了预测和展望,为湖泊水库综合管理提供了有效工具。     

通风参数计算的灰色建模法

本文根据灰色建模理论,提出灰色模型群建模法。其实质是利用计算机,对一系列预报模型进行比较,输出了个最优模型。文中通风管流参数计算的灰色建模结果令人满意,说明灰色建模理论在实验数据处理中是一个有力工具。     

数据驱动模型在渭河流域来水预报中的开发和应用研究

现有的水文预报方法分为过程驱动模型方法和数据驱动模型方法两大类,近年来随着水文数据获取能力和计算能力的发展,数据驱动模型在水文预报中受到了广泛的关注,回归模型、神经网络模型均属此类.本文首先采用距离平方反比与泰森多边形相结合的方法,由雨量站观测到的降水量求得渭河流域各四级区的降水量,然后采用自回归模型结合年～月～旬逐级修正的方法对渭河流域10个四级区进行降水预报,采用降水～气温～径流多元线性回归模型对渭河流域28个水库进行径流预报,取得了较好的效果.     

Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk

Detailed estimates of economy-wide disaster losses provide important inputs for disaster risk management. The most common models used to estimate losses are input–output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. A key strength of these models is their ability to capture the ripple effects, whereby the impacts of a disaster are transmitted to regions and sectors that are not directly affected by the event. One important transmission channel is household migration. Changes in the spatial distribution of people are likely to have substantial impacts on local labour and housing markets. In this paper, we argue that IO and CGE models suffer from limitations in representing household migration under disaster risk. We suggest combining IO and CGE models with agent-based models to improve the representation of migration in disaster impact analysis.     

基于分形方法的多孔介质有效应力模型研究

在充分分析国内外多孔介质有效应力研究基础上,针对石油工程中深层岩石复杂结构特征,应用分形几何理论,分别建立了深层多孔介质岩石有效应力的二维和三维分形计算模型。该模型能反应任意孔隙结构下的应力作用关系,是现有相关有效应力模型的补充和完善。为了现场应用方便,进一步给出多孔介质有效应力分形模型的简化式。实例计算表明,应用简化式计算的有效应力值误差在7％以内,可以满足油田现场的要求,并且应用简化式有利于应用测井数据获得连续的有效应力剖面。     

Seismic waves and correlation autoregressive processes

Stochastic models appropriate for seismic records of earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions are considered and a selective review of the existing models is presented. Special models of stationary processes, periodically correlated processes, and uniformly modulated stationary processes as well as a new class called correlation autoregressive processes are studied. Relevant properties of correlation autoregressive processes are presented. It is shown that the successful models presently used are all subclasses of the correlation autoregressive processes. Shortcomings of the existing nonstationary models and merits of the new class for seismic wave modeling are discussed and directions for the further research and development are suggested. It is hoped that the model and the ideas introduced in this article will provide a stimulation for further examination of correlation autoregressive processes and will promote statistical modeling of seismic records.     

Semivariogram Models Based on Geometric Offsets

Kriging-based geostatistical models require a semivariogram model. Next to the initial decision of stationarity, the choice of an appropriate semivariogram model is the most important decision in a geostatistical study. Common practice consists of fitting experimental semivariograms with a nested combination of proven models such as the spherical, exponential, and Gaussian models. These models work well in most cases; however, there are some shapes found in practice that are difficult to fit. We introduce a family of semivariogram models that are based on geometric shapes, analogous to the spherical semivariogram, that are known to be conditional negative definite and provide additional flexibility to fit semivariograms encountered in practice. A methodology to calculate the associated geometric shapes to match semivariograms defined in any number of directions is presented. Greater flexibility is available through the application of these geometric semivariogram models.