Bicentennial decrease of the solar constant leads to the Earth’s unbalanced heat budget and deep climate cooling

Long-wave energy emitted by the Earth-atmosphere into space is characterized by changes in power over time that always lag behind the changes in power of the absorbed solar radiation due to slow variation in enthalpy of the Earth-atmosphere system. Long-term variation of the solar energy radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy radiated into space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. The basic state of the climate system is when the debit and credit sides in the Earth’s global annual mean energy budget (including the air and water envelopes) are almost always unbalanced. The annual mean balance of the heat budget of the Earth-atmosphere over a long time period will reliably define the behavior and magnitude of the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or energy deficit to allow us to determine adequately and to predict beforehand the trend and amplitude of the forthcoming climate change using the prognosis of variations in the total solar irradiance (solar constant). The decrease in solar constant has been observed since the early 1990s. The Earth as a planet will have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future as well, because the Sun is entering the decline phase of the bicentennial luminosity changes. This will lead to a drop in temperature in approximately 2014. The increase in albedo and decrease in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will result in the additional decrease in absorbed portion of the solar energy and reduced greenhouse effect. The additional drop in temperature exceeding the effect of decreased solar constant can occur as a result of successive feedback effects. A deep bicentennial minimum in solar constant is to be anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little Ice Age (for the last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11.     

Sunspot Positions and Areas from Observations by Pierre Gassendi

Solar activity behaviour on the eve of the Maunder minimum may provide important information on the period of further suppression of sunspot population. We analyse sunspot positions and areas in the 1630s extracted from rare drawings published by Pierre Gassendi in Opera Omnia. This work was published in two different editions, the first in Lyon and the second almost 70 years later in Florence. The drawings published in Lyon are found to be slightly different from those published in Florence, which produces a discrepancy in the position of spots of a few degrees, while sunspot group areas may differ by a factor of two. We reveal that the orientation of the drawings in the book is not always the same as might be seen in the telescope. We conjecture that the time of Gassendi’s observations covers the beginning of a new Schwabe cycle in the southern hemisphere. The differential rotation rate in the 1630s is also assessed and discussed.     

Terrestrial analogs of the hellespontus dunes,Mars

Geomorphic features in the Hellespontus region, Mars, were compared with dunes of the crescentic ridge type in numerous terrestrial sand seas quantitatively by dimensional analysis of dune lengths, widths, and wavelengths. Mean values for the Hellespontus dunes are close to mean values derived from measurements of all sampled terrestrial sand seas. Terrestrial analogs of form and areal distribution of the Hellespontus dunes are shown by comparison of scale ratios derived from the measurements. Dunes of similar form occur in South West Africa, in Pakistan, in the southeastern Arabian peninsula, in the Sahara, in eastern USSR and northern China, and in western North America. Terrestrial analogs closest to form and areal distribution of the Hellespontus dunes are in the Kara Kum Desert, Turkmen SSR, and in the Ala Shan (Gobi) Desert, China.     

Shock barometry of the Siljan impact structure,Sweden

Abstract– The Siljan impact structure in Sweden is the largest confirmed impact structure in Western Europe. Despite this, the structure has been poorly studied in the past, and detailed studies of shock metamorphic features in the target lithologies are missing. Here, we present the results of a detailed systematic search for shock metamorphic features in quartz grains from 73 sampled localities at Siljan. At 21 localities from an area approximately 20 km in diameter located centrally in the structure, the orientations of 2851 planar deformation feature sets in 1179 quartz grains were measured. Observations of shatter cones outside of the zone with shocked quartz extend the total shocked area to approximately 30 km in diameter. The most strongly shocked samples, recording pressures of up to 20 GPa, occur at the very central part of the structure, and locally in these samples, higher pressures causing melting conditions in the affected rocks were reached. Pressures recorded in the studied samples decrease outwards from the center of the structure, forming roughly circular envelopes around the proposed shock center. Based on the distribution pattern of shocked quartz at Siljan, the original transient cavity can be estimated at approximately 32–38 km in diameter. After correcting for erosion, we conclude that the original rim to rim diameter of the Siljan crater was somewhere in the size range 50–90 km.     

Horizontal Flows in the Photosphere and Subphotosphere of Two Active Regions

We compare horizontal flow fields in the photosphere and in the subphotosphere (a layer 0.5 Mm below the photosphere) in two solar active regions: AR?11084 and AR?11158. AR?11084 is a mature, simple active region without significant flaring activity, and AR?11158 is a multipolar, complex active region with magnetic flux emerging during the period studied. Flows in the photosphere are derived by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) on HMI-observed vector magnetic fields, and the subphotospheric flows are inferred by time–distance helioseismology using HMI-observed Dopplergrams. Similar flow patterns are found for both layers for AR?11084: inward flows in the sunspot umbra and outward flows surrounding the sunspot. The boundary between the inward and outward flows, which is slightly different in the photosphere and the subphotosphere, is within the sunspot penumbra. The area having inward flows in the subphotosphere is larger than that in the photosphere. For AR?11158, flows in these two layers show great similarities in some areas and significant differences in other areas. Both layers exhibit consistent outward flows in the areas surrounding sunspots. On the other hand, most well-documented flux-emergence-related flow features seen in the photosphere do not have counterparts in the subphotosphere. This implies that the horizontal flows caused by flux emergence do not extend deeply into the subsurface.     

天文学研究发展趋势分析--恒星与恒星系统

对在1981-2000年世界上所发表的和中国学者所发表的有关恒星与恒星系统的论文作统计发现：此期间世界上这一领域的发展较平稳，而我国的发展快速．这反映了改革开放后，我国基础学科研究大有进展．从各分支所占的比重和发展来看，我国在恒星与恒星系统的研究与世界同期有几乎相同的分布，因此总体上我国在这一领域的发展基本正常．当然有些分支发展较快，如有关超新星及其遗迹、星际介质和恒星形成区、化学丰度的研究等，这和一些较强的研究团组形成有关；在双星研究方面，我国则与世界发展一致，双星研究始终是恒星研究领域的重点；而在世界范围内较突出的关于银河系的研究，在我国却相对较弱．恒星和恒星系统这一研究领域20年的论文数统计显示，我国学者所发表的论文只占世界总论文数的1．3％，虽然在最后5年有大幅上升，但也只占2．0％，这与我国IAU会员数所占比例相比是偏少的．就世界整体而言，恒星领域的研究进展与整个天文学领域相比是较慢的，显然这与一批能做深空探测和高能波段观测的设备投入有关．因此，除了对恒星及恒星系统领域作统计分析外，对整个天文学领域各大分支作分析可能对制定今后我国天文学发展计划更有利。     

Very Large Array and SOHO Observations of Type I Noise Storms,Large-Scale Loops and Magnetic Restructuring in the Corona

Very Large Array (VLA) observations at 91-cm wavelength are combined with data from the SOHO EIT, MDI and LASCO and used to study the evolving coronal magnetic environment in which Type I noise storms and large-scale coronal loops occur. On one day, we have shown the early evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME) in projection in the disk by tracing its decimetric continuum emission. The passage of the CME and an associated EUV ejection event coincided with an increase in the 91-cm brightness temperature of an extended coronal loop located a significant distance away and with the displacement of the 91-cm source during the early stage of the CME. We suggest that the energy deposited into the corona by the CME may have caused a local increase in the thermal or nonthermal electron density or in the electron temperature in the middle corona resulting in a transient increase in the brightness of the 91-cm loop. On a second observing day, we have consolidated the known association between magnetic changes in the photosphere and low corona with noise storm enhancements in an overlying radio source well in advance of a flare event in the same region. We find anti-correlated changes in the brightness of a bipolar 91-cm Type I noise storm that appear to be associated with the cancellation and emergence of magnetic flux in the underlying photosphere. In this case, the evolving fields may have led to magnetic instabilities and reconnection in the corona and the acceleration of nonthermal particles that initiated and sustained the Type I noise storm.     

Polarization transfer of electromagnetic waves in a magnetized plasma

In this investigation, the polarization transfer equations in terms of the Stokes parameters are derived for electromagnetic waves propagating in an arbitrary direction in an inhomogeneous magnetized plasma. This system of transfer equations is then solved analytically in the case when the magnetized plasma is homogeneous. For simplicity in presentation, the source term in the equation of transfer has been omitted. Transitting to the special case of quasi-longitudinal propagation, the results obtained here are shown to be in agreement to that derived by Zheleznyakov earlier.     

The Mars water cycle

A model has been developed to test the hypothesis that the observed seasonal and latitudinal distribution of water on Mars is controlled by the sublimation and condensation of surface ice deposits in the arctic and antarctic, and the meridional transport of water vapor. Besides reproducing the observed water vapor distribution, the model correctly reproduces the presence of a large permanent ice cap in the arctic and not in the antarctic. No permanent ice reservoirs are predicted in the temperate or equatorial zones. Wintertime ice deposits in the arctic are shown to be the source of the large water vapor abundances observed in the arctic summertime, and the moderate water vapor abundances in the northern temperate region. Model calculations suggest that a year without dust storms results in very little change in the water vapor distribution. The current water distribution appears to be the equilibrium distribution for present atmospheric conditions.     

The onset of warps in Spitzer observations of edge-on spiral galaxies

We analyse warps in the nearby edge-on spiral galaxies observed in the Spitzer /Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) 4.5-μm band. In our sample of 24 galaxies, we find evidence of warp in 14 galaxies. We estimate the observed onset radii for the warps in a subsample of 10 galaxies. The dark matter distribution in each of these galaxies are calculated using the mass distribution derived from the observed light distribution and the observed rotation curves. The theoretical predictions of the onset radii for the warps are then derived by applying a self-consistent linear response theory to the obtained mass models for six galaxies with rotation curves in the literature. By comparing the observed onset radii to the theoretical ones, we find that discs with constant thickness can not explain the observations; moderately flaring discs are needed. The required flaring is consistent with the observations. Our analysis shows that the onset of warp is not symmetric in our sample of galaxies. We define a new quantity called the onset-asymmetry index and study its dependence on galaxy properties. The onset asymmetries in warps tend to be larger in galaxies with smaller disc scalelengths. We also define and quantify the global asymmetry in the stellar light distribution, that we call the edge-on asymmetry in edge-on galaxies. It is shown that in most cases the onset asymmetry in warp is actually anticorrelated with the measured edge-on asymmetry in our sample of edge-on galaxies and this could plausibly indicate that the surrounding dark matter distribution is asymmetric.     

Asymmetries of the solar Ca ii lines

A theoretical study of the influence of propagating acoustic pulses in the solar chromosphere upon the line profiles of the Ca ii resonance and infrared triplet lines has been made. The major objective has been to explain the observed asymmetries seen in the cores of the H and K lines and to predict the temporal behavior of the infrared lines caused by passing acoustic or shock pulses. The velocities in the pulses, calculated from weak shock theory, have been included consistently in the non-LTE calculations. The results of the calculations show that these lines are very sensitive to perturbations in the background atmosphere caused by the pulses. Only minor changes in the line shapes result from including the velocities consistently in the line source function calculations. The qualitative changes in the line profiles vary markedly with the strength of the shock pulses. The observed differences in the K line profiles seen on the quiet Sun can be explained in terms of a spectrum of pulses with different wave-lengths and initial amplitudes in the photosphere.     

Possible infrared aurorae on Jupiter

We have observed infrared brightenings near the poles of Jupiter at 8 μm in early 1980. We suspect they are nonthermal in origin. These brightenings are apparently related to the auroral zones which are determined by the magnetic mapping of the magnetotail onto the atmosphere, rather than by the Io flux tube. They were present in both hemispheres in January, present only in the north in February, and probably absent in the south in March. When visible, they were only seen in the hemisphere where the auroral zone was oriented toward the Earth and absent otherwise.     

Energies of Electrons Accelerated in Turbulent Reconnecting Current Sheets in Solar Flares

Yohkoh observations strongly suggest that electron acceleration in solar flares occurs in magnetic reconnection regions in the corona above the soft X-ray flare loops. Unfortunately, models for particle acceleration in reconnecting current sheets predict electron energy gains in terms of the reconnection electric field and the thickness of the sheet, both of which are extremely difficult to measure. It can be shown, however, that application of Ohm's law in a turbulent current sheet, combined with energy and Maxwell's equations, leads to a formula for the electron energy gain in terms of the flare power output, the magnetic field strength, the plasma density and temperature in the sheet, and its area. Typical flare parameters correspond to electron energies between a few tens of keV and a few MeV. The calculation supports the viewpoint that electrons that generate the continuum gamma-ray and hard X-ray emissions in impulsive solar flares are accelerated in a large-scale turbulent current sheet above the soft X-ray flare loops.     

Meridional circulation and the period of the solar dynamo cycle

We consider the conditions in the transition from the tachocline to the solar convective zone with changing diffusion coefficient. The topology of the magnetic fields involved in the solar dynamo is revised under the assumption that intermediate fields (of the order of 10 mT) have a dominant role in generating the fields in new cycle. The inclusion of meridional circulation is found to increase the dynamo wave period in comparison to the observed period. This suggests that the αΩ-effects are unimportant in calculating the solar cycle period but hold significance in determining the cycle amplitude.     

Subsurface Flows in and Around Active Regions with Rotating and Non-rotating Sunspots

The temporal variation of the horizontal velocity in sub-surface layers beneath three different types of active region is studied using the technique of ring diagrams. In this study, we select active regions (ARs) 10923, 10930, 10935 from three consecutive Carrington rotations: AR 10930 contains a fast-rotating sunspot in a strong emerging active region while other two have non-rotating sunspots with emerging flux in AR 10923 and decaying flux in AR 10935. The depth range covered is from the surface to about 12 Mm. In order to minimize the influence of systematic effects, the selection of active and quiet regions is made so that these were observed at the same heliographic locations on the solar disk. We find a significant variation in both components of the horizontal velocity in active regions as compared to quiet regions. The magnitude is higher in emerging-flux regions than in the decaying-flux region, in agreement with earlier findings. Further, we clearly see a significant temporal variation in depth profiles of both zonal and meridional flow components in AR 10930, with the variation in the zonal component being more pronounced. We also notice a significant influence of the plasma motion in areas closest to the rotating sunspot in AR 10930, while areas surrounding the non-rotating sunspots in all three cases are least affected by the presence of the active region in their neighborhood.     

High-resolution measurements of photosphere and sunspot velocity and magnetic fields using a narrow-band birefringent filter

Modifications to a Zeiss 1/4 Å filter are described which allow high spatial resolution observations of the line-of-sight velocities and magnetic fields in the photosphere and in sunspots. First results show: (1) the granular velocity field to be very strong; differences in upward motions in the granules and downward motions in between are as much as 6 km/sec; (2) the Evershed effect in sunspots to originate primarily in the dark regions between bright penumbral filaments.     

Thoughts on monitoring the effects of climate change on the surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet

The effect of mass balance variations on changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet is examined in connection with the rise in sea level that will be caused by increased melting. Changes in surface elevation of several metres (of either sign) can occur in the ablation area of the ice sheet over a period of a few years as a result of random ablation forcing without being evidence of change in mean climate. Similar, but smaller, changes can occur in the accumulation area due to accumulation forcing. The ablation area of the ice sheet probably thickened from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s as a result of lower ablation in that period but thinned again in the late 1980s as a result of higher ablation then. There is no evidence of any present trend of increased melting. Future climate warming will involve an accelerated thinning of the ablation area that could be detected in 1–2 decades against the background of natural fluctuations in surface elevation.     

丽江高美古的二期选址——3#点和6#点的视宁度对比观测

介绍了丽江高美古二期选址在踏勘和筛选工作的基础上 ,对 3 # 点和6# 点的视宁度进行了对比观测。通过对 1 999年 2月 6日～ 1 999年 1 2月 3 1日 2个点共 4 756组同时段观测数据的统计和处理得到 :3 # 点的视宁度平均值为 1 1 .2 62 3cm ,6# 点的视宁度平均值为 1 1 .5952cm。经F分布检验和t分布检验假设成立 ,作出 3 # 点和 6# 点的视宁度无显著性差异的推断 ,与初期用衍射环观测视宁度的结果一致 ,进一步说明了高美古整个山头的视宁度都是优良的     

The evershed flow in the transition region chromosphere-photosphere

The Mgb₁ line profile is studied as a function of spatial position in the sunspot region. Comparing the wavelengths of the core and the wing, in and just outside the penumbra, a reversal in the shift is detected. The displacements of the core and the wing are interpreted as horizontal motions directed into the spot in the chromosphere and as a flow directed out of the spot in deeper layers.Systematic wavelength shifts are detected in the line core in some regions outside the penumbra. This is interpreted as a chromospheric velocity field usually directed horizontally away from the spot.     

Measuring supermassive black holes via reverberation mapping in the UV

Over the past three decades the reverberation mapping technique was used to measure the central regions of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), their size, velocity field, and the mass of the black hole in the center. This technique was used mainly in the optical with several studies in the UV. Reverberation mapping in the UV adds essential information to the AGN studies. This paper reviews these recent studies done in the UV, presents results from the recent HST campaign toward NGC?5548, and discuss two projects of reverberation mapping of UV emission lines in high-luminosity quasars. The advantages of reverberation mapping in the UV will be discussed as well as the needs from new UV missions in order to be able to advance UV reverberation mapping campaigns.