三维复杂速度模型的交切法地震定位

地震定位是地震监测与减灾研究重要基础.基于均匀或横向均匀介质模型,利用震源轨迹确定震源位置的交切法具有稳健和效率高的优点,但定位精度较低,特别是震源深度.为提高震源定位精度,我们提出适用于三维复杂速度模型的地震定位交切法.将地壳速度模型由均匀或横向均匀介质模型扩展为三维复杂速度模型;均匀或横向均匀介质模型对应的原假设为球面或双曲面的震源轨迹通过最小走时树射线追踪技术予以确定.确定震源位置的震源轨迹以到时差作为约束条件;将震源定位于震源轨迹交汇最密集的点处,即总的到时差残差(RDT)最小的点处.定位结果的不确定性可通过RDT值较小节点的空间分布予以定性表示.考察了准确速度模型、扰动速度模型、扰动观测到时及地震在台网外等4种情况下改进方法的地震定位效果,结果表明改进的交切法可用于三维复杂速度模型的地震定位;综合利用P波与S波的到时差信息,可明显改善震源位置约束;使用多条震源轨迹进行定位,有助于减少由随机因素导致的定位误差.     

几次大震前的地面和空间电磁场变化

本文应用非线性谱估计方法(MEM方法)、电/磁场脉冲能量统计方法,处理了四川汶川MS8.0 (2008)、新疆于田MS7.3 (2008)和青海玉树MS7.1 (2010) 地震及强余震附近的地面电/磁场和Demeter卫星电离层磁场观测数据,研究了地震电/磁场变化,得到:在震中附近及周围出现了震前地电/地磁场极低频成...     

Hastening of occurrences of earthquakes due to dynamic triggering: The observation at Matsushiro, central Japan

Dynamic stress/strain changes associated with the passage of seismic waves perturb the state of stress of a fault.We hypothesize that this perturbation increases the instability of the fault and that it hastens the occurrence of an earthquake that would otherwise occur somewhat later.To test this hypothesis, we investigate a time interval defined as a time difference between the occurrence of a dynamic strain change and the origin time of the first subsequent earthquake.If the occurrence of an earthquake is hastened by the strain change, the time interval would be shortened, compared with a case of a random occurrence.Here we used two datasets: 1) origin times of earthquakes at Matsushiro, Nagano Prefecture, central Japan, with magnitudes of 1.6 or greater, between November 1984 and December 1994; and 2) strainmeter records of remote earthquakes at the Matsushiro Seismological Observatory over the same period.We applied a statistical test to the distribution of the observed time intervals between dynamic strain changes due to remote earthquakes and the first earthquakes at Matsushiro subsequent to the strain changes, in order to compare it to the distribution of expected time intervals generated by a random (Monte Carlo) simulation.Because of limitations of the statistical test, we could not establish the quantitative relationship between the degree of hastening and the amplitude of the strain changes, but we found a statistically significant decrease of the observed time intervals.We also investigated the number of the earthquakes before and after the strain changes, and found that dynamic triggering has little significant impact on the occurrences of earthquakes at Matsushiro.Therefore, we conclude that dynamic triggering at Matsushiro is weaker than those reported in previous studies and that the time interval might be an important parameter for a statistical study of weak dynamic triggering.     

Effects of vegetation on channel morphodynamics: results and insights from laboratory experiments

A series of laboratory experiments demonstrates that riparian vegetation can cause a braided channel to self‐organize to, and maintain, a dynamic, single‐thread channel. The initial condition for the experiments was steady‐state braiding in non‐cohesive sand under uniform discharge. From here, an experiment consisted of repeated cycles alternating a short duration high flow with a long duration low flow, and uniform dispersal of alfalfa seeds over the bed at the end of each high flow. Plants established on freshly deposited bars and areas of braidplain that were unoccupied during low flow. The presence of the plants had the effect of progressively focusing the high flow so that a single dominant channel developed. The single‐thread channel self‐adjusted to carry the high flow. Vegetation also slowed the rate of bank erosion. Matching of deposition along the point bar with erosion along the outer bend enabled the channel to develop sinuosity and migrate laterally while suppressing channel splitting and the creation of new channel width. The experimental channels spontaneously reproduced many of the mechanisms by which natural meandering channels migrate and maintain a single dominant channel, in particular bend growth and channel cutoff. In contrast with the braided system, where channel switching is a nearly continuous process, vegetation maintained a coherent channel until wholesale diversion of flow via cutoff and/or avulsion occurred, by which point the previous channel tended to be highly unfavorable for flow. Thus vegetation discouraged the coexistence of multiple channels. Varying discharge was key to allowing expression of feedbacks between the plants and the flow and promoting the transition from braiding to a single‐thread channel that was then dynamically maintained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling flocculation processes of fine-grained particles using a size-resolved method: Comparison with published laboratory experiments

The transport of fine-grained particles in estuarine and coastal waters is influenced by flocculation processes (aggregation and floc breakup). As a consequence, the particle size varies with time in the water column, and can be orders of magnitude larger than those of primary particles. In this study the variations in floc size is simulated using a size-resolved method, which approximates the real size distribution of particles by a range of size bins and solves a mass balance equation for each bin. To predict the size distribution both aggregation and breakup processes are included. The conventional rectilinear aggregation kernel is used which considers both turbulent shear and differential settling. The breakup kernel accounts for the fractal dimension of the flocs. A flocculation simulation is compared to the settling column lab experiments of Winterwerp [1998. A simple model for turbulence induced flocculation of cohesive sediment, Journal of Hydraulic Research, 36, 309–326], and a one-dimensional sediment transport model is verified with the observed variations in floc size and concentration over tidal cycles in a laboratory flume experiment of Bale et al. [2002. Direct observation of the formation and break-up of aggregates in an annular flume using laser reflectance particle sizing. In: Winterwerp, J.C., Kranenburg, C. (Eds.), Fine Sediment Dynamics in the Marine Environment. Elsevier, pp. 189–201]. The numerical simulations compare qualitatively and quantitatively well with the laboratory measurements, and the analysis of the two simulation results indicates that the median floc size can be correlated to the sediment concentration and Kolmogorov microscale. Sensitivity studies are conducted to explore the role of settling velocity and erosion rate. The results are not sensitive towards the formulation of settling velocity, but the parameterization of erosion flux is important. The studies show that for predicting the sediment deposition flux it is crucial to include flocculation processes.     

Physical modelling of gelifluction and frost creep: Some results of a large-scale laboratory experiment

An experimental slope was constructed in a 5 m × 5 m square refrigerated tank. The slope was formed of four sections, each consisting of regolith (soil) collected from a distinct bedrock lithology. The four lithologies utilized were granite, limestone, mudstone and slate. The slope was subjected to freezing and thawing from the surface downwards. Water was supplied at the base of the soil during freezing. Frost heaving and surface downslope soil movement were determined after each of 15 freezing cycles, and the profiles of soil movement with depth for each soil type were measured at the end of the 15th cycle. The experimental soils were non-cohesive; those derived from granite and limestone were respectively sandy and gravelly in texture, while those derived from mudstone and slate were silt-rich. Mass movement in the granite and limestone soils was due mainly to frost creep and was associated with the growth of needle ice. In the mudstone and slate soils, gelifluction was dominant as a result of high moisture contents caused by the melting of segregation ice. Mean per cycle rates of downslope soil transport for the granite, limestone, mudstone and slate soils were 5·8 cm³ cm^?1, 6·9 cm³ cm^?1, 21·2 cm³ cm^?1 and 31·2 cm³ cm^?1 respectively, units referring to the volume of soil passing a unit width of slope per cycle. Mass movement rates were shown to be strongly related to the silt content of the soils.     

青藏高原东北缘地震时空迁移的有限元数值模拟

地震在大陆内部断层系统中的时空迁移和丛集的基本力学机制一直是地球科学家关注的重要问题.青藏高原东北缘地震活动频繁,其地震时空迁移和地震丛集现象显著,是研究这个问题的重要区域.我们建立了一个三维黏弹塑性有限元模型,模拟了青藏高原东北缘主要活动断层系统的地震循环和地震时空迁移;计算了断层系统的应力演化;并探讨了断层之间的相互作用及地震时空迁移和地震丛集的原因.模拟结果显示断层之间的相互作用通过增加或降低断层上的库仑应力,加速或延缓了地震发生,使得区域地震可以在短时间内集中发生,从而形成地震丛集;另外,区域经过多个地震循环的长期演化,一些孕震断层上的应力状态恰好都达到屈服的临界状态附近,从而也可以导致这些断层上的地震在短期内集中发生,因此产生地震丛集和地震迁移.我们发现当区域经历地震丛集之后,该区域的应力大大释放,区域进入地震平静期;随着构造加载的持续,区域应力逐渐恢复,为下一次地震丛集或地震序列累积应力和能量;上述过程可以重复发生.因此地震丛集期与平静期交替出现.我们还统计了各个断层的大地震相互迁移的模拟结果,结果显示青藏高原东北缘下一次大地震有很大的概率会发生在海原断层上.

     

2000年以来南美板缘强震对2014年智利M_S8.2地震触发关系的初步研究

计算了2000年以来南美板缘强震(先前地震)对2014年4月1日智利北部M_S8.2主震、2014年4月3日M_S7.6强余震以及本次主震对其后续余震的应力触发作用,研究结果表明:先前地震在主震震源机制解2个节面上产生的库仑应力变化均为正;采用不同的有效摩擦系数,在主震破裂面上产生的库仑应力变化超过阈值(0.01MPa)的子元最低占22.2%,库仑应力变化为正子元的比率最低和最高分别为74.3%、95.5%。先前地震和主震在4月3日M_S7.6地震震源机制解的2个节面上产生的库仑应力变化也均为正,且远大于触发阈值;最低有58.2%的破裂面子元上库仑应力变化超过触发阈值,最低有64.0%的破裂面子元上库仑应力变化为正。故先前地震有利于本次主震的发生,先前地震及本次主震又有利于M_S7.6强余震的发生。根据全球CMT目录搜索到的8次余震震源机制解资料,计算了本次主震在后续余震震源机制解节面上的库仑破裂应力变化,计算结果显示,主震对其后续余震的触发效果不明显,由于余震资料的有限性,主震对余震的触发作用还有待于进一步研究。     

地震统计力学—几个非线性地震模型的相互关系及其物理含义

近年来地震统计力学研究的进展已经使我们有可能以一种简洁的方式将一些非线性地震模型物理地联系起来,并从地震学角度阐明这些模型的意义和限度。本文结合逾渗模型、热力学弹性回跳模型及弹簧滑块模型,系统地评述了这方面研究的进展。     

相邻两井对大地震的不同水力响应模型研究——页岩影响分析

大地震引起了左家庄和宝坻（相距~50 km）两井中截然不同的同震水位响应.我们用水位的气压和潮汐响应来分析解释此现象.结果表明,宝坻井的观测含水层中存在页岩,且此井受裂隙影响很大,储水效应较差.页岩的复杂裂隙或者各向异性可能会导致此井观测含水层处于半封闭状态,从而导致垂直向排水的发生.通过多方计算分析后,我们将这两口井划分为两种模型-1.水平流动模型;2.水平流动+垂直流动的混合流动模型.由于裂隙影响,宝坻井的观测含水层介质与外界的水力沟通性在震前就较强（震前渗透率就比较大）,所以宝坻井观测含水层与外界的孔隙压差异较小,导致同震渗透率上升较小甚至没有变化,这些因素是导致该井同震水位变化幅度总是非常微小的原因.

     

武汉超导重力仪观测最新结果和海潮模型研究

利用武汉台站GWR_C032超导重力仪观测资料,在对原始数据进行有效预处理的基础上作调和分析,获得反映地球内部介质特征的重力潮汐参数.基于卫星测高技术和有限元方法同时考虑验潮站数据作约束条件获得的多个全球海潮模型,利用负荷理论和数值褶积积分技术计算了重力负荷,对周日和半日频段内的重力潮汐参数实施负荷改正,提出了“负荷改正有效性”概念,研究了全球海潮模型适应性.数值结果说明,海潮改正的有效性高达91%（O1,NAO99）和92%（M2,ORI96）.基于11个海潮模型对主波（O1,K1,M2和S2）的负荷改正说明平均有效性为（86%,70%,73%和84%）,振幅因子与理论模型间的差异分别从（212%,155%,116%和080%）降到（031%,039%,034%和008%）,同时还说明利用NAO99和ORI96全球海潮模型能获得比其他模型更佳的负荷改正效果.文章还利用国际地球动力学计划网络其他7个台站的超导重力仪观测研究了全球海潮模型的适定性问题,结果说明不同模型中不同潮波具有明显的区域特点,早期构制的SCW80全球海潮模型仍可作为大地测量研究中的重要参考模型.     

Significant duration predictive models developed from strong-motion data of thrust-faulting earthquakes recorded in Mexico City

Predictive models for estimating strong-motion duration in sites characterized by soft-soil profiles are presented in this paper. The models were developed using a strong-motion database that includes observations from subduction interface earthquakes that occurred from 1989 to 2020 and recorded in Mexico City, which is located at source-to-site distances up to 600 km. A linear mixed-effects regression model, which is a statistical fitting procedure that allows to consider the correlation structure of grouped data, was used to develop the predictive models. Relative significant duration was selected to measure strong-motion duration. This measure can be directly associated with the accumulation of energy of the ground movement. The proposed predictive models relate relative significant duration with moment magnitude, either hypocentral distance or closest distance to the rupture plane, and dominant period of the soil. Regression analyses were performed grouping the ground-motion data by both seismic event and site class. Model assumptions, such as homoscedasticity, normality, and linearity of effects, were verified from residual analyses. From the results, the expected value of the natural logarithm of relative significant duration was found to be ～1.2 times greater for an earthquake with a moment magnitude equal to 8.0 than for one of 6.0. An insightful discussion about the sources and character of the uncertainties detected in the proposed predictive models is also presented in this study. The predictive models proposed in this paper are of valuable application in seismic and structural engineering because they allow to circumscribe properly the dimension and randomness of strong-motion duration.     

Collapse simulation of reinforced concrete high‐rise building induced by extreme earthquakes

Collapse resistance of high‐rise buildings has become a research focus because of the frequent occurrence of strong earthquakes and terrorist attacks in recent years. Research development has demonstrated that numerical simulation is becoming one of the most powerful tools for collapse analysis in addition to the conventional laboratory model tests and post‐earthquake investigations. In this paper, a finite element method based numerical model encompassing fiber‐beam element model, multilayer shell model, and elemental deactivation technique is proposed to predict the collapse process of high‐rise buildings subjected to extreme earthquake. The potential collapse processes are simulated for a simple 10‐story RC frame and two existing RC high‐rise buildings of 18‐story and 20‐story frame–core tube systems. The influences of different failure criteria used are discussed in some detail. The analysis results indicate that the proposed numerical model is capable of simulating the collapse process of existing high‐rise buildings by identifying potentially weak components of the structure that may induce collapse. The study outcome will be beneficial to aid further development of optimal design philosophy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2008年汶川地震的破裂模型及引起的余震活动分析

用两种发震构造的破裂位移分布模型对2008年汶川地震造成的区域主要断裂的库仑应力变化进行了模拟.通过对这两种破裂位移模型模拟结果的对比分析,表明破裂位移模型的逆冲兼右旋滑动的位移模式及南北两段分别有两个滑动量高值区这样的特点控制了区域库仑应力变化的总体分布特征.汶川地震的余震分布和计算结果还显示:所获得的区域主要断裂的库仑应力变化分布和正应力变化分布同时控制了该地震发生后余震的分布,库仑应力变化增强同时断层面受到主震断层位错拉张的区域和余震的分布强烈吻合,而库仑应力变化增强但是相应部位断层面受到主震的挤压作用却没有余震发生,显示了强震后区域断层受到的正应力变化和库仑应力变化均对余震的发生起到了重要作用,而不仅仅是库仑应力变化增强是触发余震的机制;两种模型计算结果的细微差异显示了倾角向下变缓的震源破裂模型能更好地解释余震在破裂断层北部的分布特点.对昆仑山断裂、鲜水河断裂等周边强震多发断层的库仑应力变化及对未来地震活动的可能影响进行了初步评价.     

Rill development and soil erosion: a laboratory study of slope and rainfall intensity

A total of 15 rainfall simulation experiments were conducted in a 1 m by 2 m box varying slope (10, 20, 30%) and rainfall intensity (60, 90, 120 mm h^?1). The experiments were performed to study how rill networks initiate and evolve over time under controlled conditions with regard to the treatment variables considered, and to allow for input in a computer simulation model. Runoff and sediment yield samples were collected. Digital elevation models were calculated by means of photogrammetry for several time steps of most experiments. The soil used in the experiments was a basal till derived Cambisol typical for the Swiss Plateau. While significant differences were found for sediment yield, runoff did not vary significantly with treatment combinations. Increasing rainfall intensity had a larger effect on sediment yield than increasing slope. Rill density and energy expenditure decreased with time, suggesting that energy expenditure was a useful parameter to describe the emergence of rill network at the laboratory scale. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CO2-induced dissolution of low permeability carbonates. Part II: Numerical modeling of experiments

We used the 3D continuum-scale reactive transport models to simulate eight core flood experiments for two different carbonate rocks. In these experiments the core samples were reacted with brines equilibrated with pCO₂ = 3, 2, 1, 0.5 MPa (Smith et al., 2013 [27]). The carbonate rocks were from specific Marly dolostone and Vuggy limestone flow units at the IEAGHG Weyburn-Midale CO₂ Monitoring and Storage Project in south-eastern Saskatchewan, Canada. Initial model porosity, permeability, mineral, and surface area distributions were constructed from micro tomography and microscopy characterization data. We constrained model reaction kinetics and porosity–permeability equations with the experimental data. The experimental data included time-dependent solution chemistry and differential pressure measured across the core, and the initial and final pore space and mineral distribution. Calibration of the model with the experimental data allowed investigation of effects of carbonate reactivity, flow velocity, effective permeability, and time on the development and consequences of stable and unstable dissolution fronts.The continuum scale model captured the evolution of distinct dissolution fronts that developed as a consequence of carbonate mineral dissolution and pore scale transport properties. The results show that initial heterogeneity and porosity contrast control the development of the dissolution fronts in these highly reactive systems. This finding is consistent with linear stability analysis and the known positive feedback between mineral dissolution and fluid flow in carbonate formations. Differences in the carbonate kinetic drivers resulting from the range of pCO₂ used in the experiments and the different proportions of more reactive calcite and less reactive dolomite contributed to the development of new pore space, but not to the type of dissolution fronts observed for the two different rock types. The development of the dissolution front was much more dependent on the physical heterogeneity of the carbonate rock. The observed stable dissolution fronts with small but visible dissolution fingers were a consequence of the clustering of a small percentage of larger pores in an otherwise homogeneous Marly dolostone. The observed wormholes in the heterogeneous Vuggy limestone initiated and developed in areas of greater porosity and permeability contrast, following pre-existing preferential flow paths.Model calibration of core flood experiments is one way to specifically constrain parameter input used for specific sites for larger scale simulations. Calibration of the governing rate equations and constants for Vuggy limestones showed that dissolution rate constants reasonably agree with published values. However the calcite dissolution rate constants fitted to the Marly dolostone experiments are much lower than those suggested by literature. The differences in fitted calcite rate constants between the two rock types reflect uncertainty associated with measured reactive surface area and appropriately scaling heterogeneous distribution of less abundant reactive minerals. Calibration of the power-law based porosity–permeability equations was sensitive to the overall heterogeneity of the cores. Stable dissolution fronts of the more homogeneous Marly dolostone could be fit with the exponent n = 3 consistent with the traditional Kozeny–Carman equation developed for porous sandstones. More impermeable and heterogeneous cores required larger n values (n = 6–8).     

Identifying advantages and drawbacks of two hydrological models based on a sensitivity analysis: a study in two Chilean watersheds

ABSTRACT

Hydrological modelling has undergone constant growth with the increase in information processing capabilities. Hydrological models have traditionally been used to study the effects of climate change on management and land-use changes and for water resources planning, among other purposes. The aim of this study was to determine and analyse the advantages of the HBV and HYMOD models, which are commonly used in hydrology on daily and monthly time scales. A regional sensitivity analysis was used to compare the processes that take on greater importance at different time scales in the two models. As a result, it was found that quick precipitation–runoff processes prove to be better represented in the HBV model, while slow, time-aggregated processes are better represented by the HYMOD model. This study confirms that both models are adequate for rain-dominated basins, such as those of the study area. Additionally, the HBV model proved to be more robust in comparison to HYMOD.     

基于应变能变化的芦山强震同震效应的数值模拟

芦山地震发生后,川滇地区主要活动断裂的地震活动趋势变化值得关注.本文基于川滇地区的三维非线性有限元模型,利用地震矩张量反演的断层节面性质及震级与破裂长度、同震位错量的经验公式,从应变能积累/释放角度分析地震的发生对川滇地区主要断裂的同震加卸载效应.初步结果表明,在33条断裂段中,有17条表现为同震加载效应,15条表现为卸载效应,1条影响不明显.地震的发生造成马尔康断裂、岷江断裂加载效应较强.但需要注意的是,滇西、滇西南地区主要活动断裂表现出群体性的加载效应.     

Stick-slip and strain waves in the physics of earthquake rupture: experiments and models

The study of stick-slip is directly connected with the formulation of the consistent concept of seismicity migration and explanation of the nature of strain waves observed at the contacts of blocks and plates. We propose a phenomenological model to describe the initiation of stick-slip at the rough contact of blocks of rocks. The model contains the leading factors of stick-slip process (friction, roughness of contact surfaces, and asperity). The model reproduces the universal profile of slip velocity and displacement, velocity of dynamic rupture observed in experiments. The stick-slip motion at a rough surface of a fault is shown to be a nonlinear process and can be described by the generalized sine-Gordon equation. The results of calculations and a comparison with experimental data testify to the existence of waves of a new type — solitary waves of sliding. The analogies are found between the strain waves generated due to stick-slip at the contact of the blocks of rocks, strain waves in the crustal faults, and those within the lithosphere.     

Site response in Tecoman,Colima, Mexico—I: Comparison of results from different instruments and analysis techniques

This paper presents a study of site effects in the urban area of Tecoman in Colima, Mexico. A variety of instruments (both accelerometers and seismometers) were used to record earthquakes and ambient vibration throughout the city. Earthquake records were analysed using several techniques to estimate site effects: spectral ratios relative to a reference station, spectral ratios of the horizontal components relative to the vertical recorded at the same site, and a parametric inversion of Fourier spectra. Ambient noise records were used to estimate a local transfer function using horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. The results show that local amplification at Tecoman is significant. Dominant frequency varies between 0.5 and 0.7 Hz, suggesting a large thickness of the soft sedimentary deposits. We did not observe systematic variations throughout the city. Our more reliable estimates indicate that maximum amplification is comprised between a factor 6 and 8. Comparisons among different sensors and recorders show that all combinations between velocimeters, accelerometers, and recorders provide reliable results provided that the electronic noise is smaller than the noise being recorded. This is notably not the case for accelerometers at quiet sites and for frequencies smaller than 2 Hz. This explains why previous studies disagree as to the usefulness of accelerometers to record ambient noise for site effect studies. This factor is, however, a function of noise amplitude at each site.