利用小震分布和区域应力场确定大震断层面参数方法及其在唐山地震序列中的应用

根据成丛小震发生在大震断层面及其附近的原则,将模拟退火算法和高斯-牛顿算法结合,给出了利用小震密集程度求解主震断层面走向、倾角、位置及其误差的稳健估计方法,在此基础上考虑区域构造应力参数,给出了估计在已求得的断层面上的滑动角的方法.该方法还可用于小震活跃地区活断层走向、倾角和滑动角的确定.将这种方法用于唐山地震序列,采用2002年4月1日至2006年5月31日发生在地震破裂区的精定位地震目录,求得了唐山地震、滦县地震、宁河及卢龙断裂带的断层面走向、倾角、位置及滑动角参数.与前人给出的断层面解进行比较,发现利用小震精定位资料和区域构造应力场得到的结果与前人采用其他资料和方法得到的结果近似,验证了这种方法的有效性.另外,本研究首次发现滦县地震区东部的小震呈北东-南西向条带状成丛发生,可精确刻画为一条断裂带,较为精确地确定了此断层的走向、倾角和滑动角.该断裂及宁河断裂在唐山地震序列发生时是否破裂需要运用其他资料进行验证.     

由地震分布丛集性给出断层参数的一种新方法

由于大范围内地质构造的复杂性和介质的非均匀性,发震断层面的几何形态一般十分复杂.如果大地震的破裂过程涉及多个断层的活动,则发震断层并非是单一断层平面,而是多个断层面的组合.利用地震空间位置分布丛集性,即震源点成丛位于断层面附近的假设,结合稳健扩充算法和主成分分析给出一种可以重构活断层网络三维空间结构的新方法.该方法每次从震源点集中处开始,利用假设检验扩充子断层面,并得到多个子断层面.接着按震源点属于最近断层面的准则把各子断层面内的震源点进行竞争,并根据一定假设合并和删除一些子断层面,最后用主成分分析确定每个子断层面参数.于是可根据地震事件目录给出一组矩形区域来描述断层面网络结构,其中每个矩形断层面由其位置、走向和倾角确定.通过计算机模拟发现,新方法可成功地重建模拟地震目录的断层面,最后用于南加州1992年6月28日发生的Landers地震部分余震目录中,得到各个子断层面参数与已知地质破裂或隐伏断层相当一致.     

地震力标度及其在华北地区的应用

讨论了华北地区中强地震前地震力标度的时空变化特征, 首先介绍了地震力标度的物理意义, 给出了由传统经验公式推导出的地震力标度σ值的计算方法, σ值是一个表征地震时震源处断层平均驱动力的物理量, 基于地震波能量推导得到, 介于地震频度和能量之间, 根据经典通用的经验公式, 地震力标度σ值与震级M_L存在lgσ=1.14M_L+6.22标度关系; 结合华北地区(34°~42°N ; 110°~124°E; )地震活动的特点, 利用1980年以来2500多次3级以上地震, 研究了M_S≥5.0中强震前σ值的变化规律, 结果发现该指标能客观反映地震活动的增强与平静。 中强地震前存在σ值高值异常, σ值有由低转高, 在高值点发震的特征。 空间上σ值的分布与地质构造、 地震带和强震孕育过程有关, 中强震前地震力标度σ值有成片增加的过程, 对中强地震预测有一定的指导意义。     

Space-time analysis of earthquake-generating structures in the Baikal Rift system

The epicenter field of earthquakes that occur in the Baikal Rift System (BRS) was analyzed to identify certain areas that have stable concentrations of seismic events; these are reflections (in time) of deformable earthquake-generating volumes in the tectonosphere, or earthquake-generating structures. The patterns that are identifiable in the interrelationships and interactions of earthquake-generating structures as found by analysis of the space-time characteristics of the seismic process characterize the present-day dynamics of the BRS. Time series of earthquake-generating structures were analyzed for the 1964?C2002 period using the following parameters: the number of earthquakes (N) and the logarithm of total energy released by the earthquakes (log E_sum). The tool was frequency-time analysis (FTAN), which revealed dominant periodic components in the seismic process for each earthquake-generating structure. We also used correlation analysis based on the parameter N to determine the order of activation for the earthquake-generating structures and to identify periods of synchronization in the seismic process.     

The seismicity and tectonic stress field characteristics of the Longmenshan fault zone before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake

The seismicity of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinities before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake is studied. Based on the digital seismic waveform data observed from regional seismic networks and mobile stations, the focal mechanism solutions are determined. Our analysis results show that the seismicities of Longmenshan fault zone before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were in stable state. No obvious phenomena of seismic activity intensifying appeared. According to focal mechanism solutions of some small earthquakes before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the direction of principal compressive stress P-axis is WNW-ESE. The two hypocenter fault planes are NE-striking and NW-striking. The plane of NE direction is among N50°?70°E, the dip angles of fault planes are 60°?70° and it is very steep. The faultings of most earthquakes are dominantly characterized by dip-slip reverse and small part of faultings present strike-slip. The azimuths of principal compressive stress, the strikes of source fault planes and the dislocation types calculated from some small earthquakes before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are in accordance with that of the main shock. The average stress field of micro-rupture along the Longmenshan fault zone before the great earthquake is also consistent with that calculated from main shock. Zipingpu dam is located in the east side 20 km from the initial rupture area of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The activity increment of small earthquakes in the Zipingpu dam is in the period of water discharging. The source parameter results of the small earthquakes which occurred near the initial rupture area of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake indicate that the focal depths are 5 to 14 km and the source parameters are identical with that of earthquake.     

2013年8月香格里拉德钦—得荣M_S5.9地震序列震源机制与应力场特征

利用中国区域台网地震波形记录,采用CAP方法反演了香格里拉德钦(位于云南省)—得荣(属于四川省)2013年8月28日MS5.1、8月31日MS5.9地震及8次MS4余震的震源双力偶断层面解和震源质心深度.结合震区地质构造、余震分布、烈度分布、动力学背景等资料,分析了此次地震序列的震源机制和应力场特征.反演结果表明,此次地震序列为节面倾角倾斜的正断层型地震,发震断层为NWW向活动构造带.序列中最大地震MS5.9和次大地震MS5.1地震的破裂节面分别为走向299°、倾角53°、滑动角-73°;走向290°、倾角55°、滑动角-72°.震源区受到强烈的水平拉张力、垂直挤压力作用.MS5.9地震后续余震T、P轴方位角随时间变化强烈,表明MS5.9地震后震源区应力调整作用明显.震源区应力场反演结果显示,地震发生的构造带上最大主拉应力为NNE-SSW向,最大主压应力为NW-SE向,与GPS观测所反映的地表最大主应力分布方向基本一致,表明震源区的应力状态可能主要受到背景大尺度构造应力场的控制.此次地震序列填充了川滇地区震源机制及应力场的空间分布图像,1976年以来可靠的震源机制解资料表明香格里拉次级块体是川滇块体及周边区域显著的拉张作用区域.香格里拉次级块体和保山次级块体正断层地震的断层节面及震源应力轴分布的空间变化,与GPS观测反映的地表最大主拉应力分布较一致,其空间分布特征反映了在青藏高原物质挤出背景下,块体之间相互作用、地势差异等作用对构造活动的影响.     

Scale invariance for a heterogeneous fault model

A very simple model of fault fracturing is presented. The fault is envisaged as a series of faultlets whose area is randomly distributed and whose strength have a Gaussian distribution. Faultlet slip occurs when the loading stress reaches its strength. Large earthquakes are generated by coalescence of smaller cracks. Theb value of the Gutenberg-Richter frequency magnitude relation is then calculated. Ab equal to 1 (scale invariance) is obtained only for events with magnitudeM greater than 3. At lower magnitude the number of events decreases with decreasing magnitude. A similar result can be explained by the experimental observation of an anomalous scaling law of real earthquakes. Here the suggestion is advanced that a similar observation could be interpreted by a multifractal approach.     

Stress Changes Modelled for the Sequence of Strong Earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone Since 1706

The South Iceland seismic zone is, roughly speaking, situated between two sections of the mid-Atlantic ridge, i.e., the Reykjanes Ridge southwest of Iceland and the Eastern Volcanic Zone on the island. It is a transform zone, where earthquakes are expected to occur on E-W-trending left-lateral shear faults, equivalent to conjugate, N-S-oriented right-lateral, rupture planes. In fact, earthquakes take place on en-échelon N-S-oriented faults, which is indicated by the distribution of main shock intensities, aftershocks as well as by surface fault traces. The stress field continuously generated in the fault zone by opening of the adjacent ridges is computed and superimposed on the stress field changes induced by a series of 13 earthquakes (M 6) between 1706 and 2000. The level of the pre-seismic stress field is analysed as well as the size of the area under high stress. Finally, the post-seismic stress field of June 2000 is analysed, to see where high stresses might have accumulated. The modelling indicates that the rupture planes located on separated parallel N-S-striking zones are dense enough to lead to an area-wide stress release by the series of events. The obtained pre-seismic stress level for most events is high and stable with the exception of situations when several strong shocks occur over a time span of several days, i.e., display typical main shock-aftershock patterns. The size of areas under high stress aside from of the rupture plane, i.e., where no event occurs at the specific time, is of medium to small size.     

青藏高原地震活动特征及当前地震活动形势

青藏高原是我国现代构造活动和地震活动最强烈的地区,自有地震记录以来,在高原内记录到多达18次8级以上巨大地震和100余次7~7.9级地震,它们均发生在喜马拉雅板块边界构造带和板内断块区及其次级断块的边界活动构造带上.自1900年有地震仪器记录以来,青藏高原曾经历了3次地震活动丛集高潮,即1920-1937年,1947-1976年和1995-现在.在每次地震活动丛集期都形成以8级地震为核心的7级以上地震活动系列,它们分别是20世纪20-30年代的海原-古浪地震系列、50-70年代察隅-当雄地震系列和20世纪末期以来昆仑-汶川地震系列.每一个地震系列都有自己的主体活动区,最新的昆仑-汶川地震系列的主体活动区为巴颜喀喇断块.青藏高原地震活动高潮与全球M_w≥8.0巨大地震活动高潮紧密相关,昆仑-汶川地震系列与自2001年至今的全球最新地震活动高潮相对应,它们反映了两者的动力学联系.经过详细对比研究认为,它们至今均仍在延续之中,全球板块边界构造带8~9级地震和板内大陆断块区的7~8级地震都仍在连续发生.研究了全球和区域地震活动的相关关系及青藏高原地震活动的时空分布特征,指出了该区当前地震活动的总体形势,评价了其近期地震危险性,提出了加强地震监测的建议.     

Rupture segmentation and assessment of probabilities of seismic potential on the Xiaojiang fault zone

Spatial distribution of sources of strong and large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault zone in eastern Yunnan is studied according to historical earthquake data. 7 segments of relatively independent sources or basic units of rupture along the fault zone have been identified preliminarily. On every segment, time intervals between main historical earthquakes are generally characterized by “time-predictable” recurrence behavior with indetermination. A statistic model for the time intervals between earthquakes of the fault zone has been preliminarily established. And a mathematical method has been introduced into this paper to reckon average recurrence interval between earthquakes under the condition of having known the size of the last event at a specific segment. Based on these, ranges of the average recurrence intervals given confidence have been estimated for events of various sizes on the fault zone. Further, the author puts forward a real-time probabilistic model that is suitable to analyze seismic potential for individual segments along a fault zone on which earthquake recurrence intervals have been characterized by quasi-time-predictable behavior, and applies this model to calculate conditional probabilities and probability gains of earthquake recurring on the individual segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone during the period from 1991 to 2005. As a consequence, it has shown that two parts of this fault zone, from south of Dongchuan to Songming and from Chengjiang to Huaning, have relatively high likelihoods for strong or large earthquake recurring in the future. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 322–330, 1993.     

Activation of rifting processes in the Northern Cis-Baikal region: A case study of the Kichera earthquake sequence of 1999

The paper addresses the spatiotemporal development of the Kichera sequence of earthquakes of 1999 (more than 6000 events over the year) within the Kichera depression, terminating on land in the Northern Baikal basin; the series was the most intense of all earthquake sequences recorded in the Northern Cis-Baikal region (NCBR) since 1960. The spatial coordinates of earthquakes showed that the source rupture, originating in the area of the Kichera-Upper Angara interbasin mountainous isthmus, propagated in the SW direction toward Lake Baikal. Stresses in the sources of the two strongest shocks (Mw = 6.0 and 5.6) of the sequence were released along fault planes striking NE (normal type) and E-W (normal-strike-slip type). Focal mechanisms of aftershocks revealed the presence of differently oriented faults motions on which were controlled by a large rifting fault striking NE. The Kichera earthquakes are shown to have occurred under seismotectonic conditions dominated by NW-SE extension and to have been accompanied by active normal faulting promoting longitudinal growth of the Upper Angara depression and deepening of the Kichera depression. The seismotectonic strain rates calculated for the NCBR before and after 1999 were of the order of (0.1–1.0) × 10^?10 yr^?1, whereas their values were two to three orders larger during 1999. Thus, the Kichera earthquakes confirmed the high seismic potential of the NCBR and showed that this rift segment developed through growth of depressions and destruction of interbasin mountainous isthmuses.     

肃南5.7级地震序列震源机制研究及其前兆意义

用Ｐ、Ｓ波振幅比方法反演了１９８８年１１月２２日肃南５．７级地震序列的震源机制,计算了对应的Ｐ轴Ｔ轴。结果表明,前震的一组节面比较集中且与主震断层面大体一致,其主压应力轴也表现出对的集中,而余震（以及以后发生在该地区的一些小震）的断层面解则比较散乱,但总体上仍与该区的主要断层保持大体一致,但是余震的Ｐ轴和Ｔ轴则表现更大的散乱。由此我们可以认为,中强地震发生前震源区微震震源机制的相对一致性是发震断层     

Source modeling of the Hsingtai,China earthquakes of March 1966

The Hsingtai, China earthquakes of March 1966 were a series of destructive earthquakes associated with the Shu-lu graben. Five strong shocks of M_s ≥ 6 occurred within a period of less than a month, the largest of which was M_s 7.2. Body and surface waves over the period range from several to 100 s have been modeled for the four largest events using synthetic seismograms in the time domain and spectral analysis in the frequency domain. Data from ground deformation, local geology, regional seismic network, and teleseismic joint epicenter determination have also been used to constrain the source model and the rupture process.The fault mechanism of the Hsingtai sequence was mainly strike-slip with a small component of normal dip-slip. The strikes of the four largest shocks range from ～ N26° to 30°E, approximately along strike of the major faults of the Shu-lu graben and the aftershock distribution. The source mechanisms can be explained with a NNW-SSE extensional stress and a NEE-SWW compressional stress acting in the area. The major shocks all had focal depths ～ 10 km.The four largest shocks in the sequence were characterized by a relatively simple and smooth dislocation time history. The durations of the far-field source time functions ranged from 3.5 to 5 s, while the rise times were all ～ 1 s. The seismic moments of the four largest earthquakes ranged from 1.43 × 10²⁵ to 1.51 × 10²⁶ dyne cm^?1. The fault sizes of the four events were very close. Assuming circular faults, the diameters of the four events were determined to be between 10 and 14 km. Stress drops varied from ～ 52 to 194 bars. A trend of increasing stress drop with earthquake size was observed.A survey of stress drop determinations for 15 major intraplate earthquakes shows that on the average the magnitude of stress drop of oceanic intraplate earthquakes and passive continental margin events is higher (～ 200 to several hundred bars) than that of continental intraplate earthquakes (～ 100 bars or less).     

拉萨地区及其周边的地震活动性研究

印度和欧亚陆-陆板块碰撞造就的青藏高原地震活动十分频繁.但由于地理因素限制,青藏高原内部地震台站分布稀疏,因此全球地震台网很难监测青藏高原内部发生的小型地震活动.本文通过对北京大学布设的流动台阵自2007年1月至2008年3月地震记录的分析,精确定位了拉萨周边地区的79个区域小震,发现了两个可能是受到岩浆或地下水活动影响而形成的震群,以及拉萨附近一条近期比较活跃的断层,并给出了全球台网对于该地区地震定位误差的估计.     

Static stress changes and fault interaction during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence

We study the static stress changes caused by moderatemagnitude earthquakes that occurred in Umbria-Marcheduring a seismic sequence which started on September3, 1997, with a M_L 4.7 foreshock and consisted ofeight earthquakes whose magnitudes range between 5.0and 6.0. The earthquakes occurred on normal faultsstriking in the Apennine direction and dipping at lowangles towards the SW. The goal is to verify if stresschanges induced by each mainshock can explain theoccurrence of subsequent events. Our results show thatthe foreshock slightly increased the Coulomb stress onthe first mainshock fault plane. The distribution ofseismicity that followed the foreshock is clustered inthe area of Coulomb stress increase comprised betweenthe two faults which ruptured in opposite directionsduring the two largest shocks of September 26. Thelocations and the geometry of the three largestearthquakes agree well with the pattern of Coulombstress changes suggesting elastic interaction betweenthese faults. However, we were not able to model thewhole sequence of M_L 5.0 events in terms ofCoulomb stress changes. The difficulties are due tothe similarity of fault plane solutions for eventslocated very close to each other and in the hangingwall of the mainshock rupture planes. Our results showthat normal stress changes agree better with thespatial pattern of the whole sequence of moderatemagnitude events. If previous ruptures unclamp thefault planes of subsequent earthquakes, fluid flow canplay a dominant role in promoting earthquakes duringthe seismic sequence.     

Numerical simulation of the earthquake generation process

A numerical algorithm is proposed for the simulation of the earthquake process during a seismic cycle. The algorithm is based on a heterogeneous discrete model of the fault plane and assumes there are two kinds of seismicity: background crack-like earthquakes and asperity-like events. An active zone of the fault contains an asperity distribution with a characteristic elementary area. The background seismicity randomly develops shear stress-free surfaces which tend to surround the asperities as in a 2D percolation process. The model parameters are taken from observations on the Vrancea (Romania) intermediate depth seismic region. The results emphasize the significant role of the geometry in the mechanism of the seismic failure. The algorithm predicts the nonlinear behavior in the frequency-magnitude distribution, the decrease of theb-slope associated with the asperity-like events, the magnitude range of major earthquakes, and their recurrence times.     

华北地区震前断层异常活动方式

分析了华北地区跨断层形变资料, 研究了唐山、 大同及张北地震前断层异常活动方式。 结果表明, 震前存在显著的断层异常活动; 断层异常活动方式具有构造控制特征,并与孕震机理有关; 地震孕育过程中有可能出现多次应力集中; 从断层不可逆异常活动地区的分布推测, 唐山地震缓解了延怀地区的地震危险性, 大同地震缓解了紫荆关-狼山断层一线的地震危险性; 张北地震断层异常活动呈松弛变化, 首都圈及邻近地区地震活动将趋于缓解。     

Strong Paleoearthquakes along the Aksuu Border Fault according to the Results of Dating the Offset Terrace Complex of the Chon-Aksuu River,Northern Tien Shan

The study and radiocarbon dating of the low alluvial terraces of the Chon-Aksuu River, in the Northern Issyk-Kul region, which were broken by the Kebin (Kemin) earthquake of 1911 (Ms = 8.2, Io = 10 to 11), are carried out. The obtained radiocarbon dated ages refer to the second half of the Holocene. Since that time, at least eight strong earthquakes took place along this (Chon-Aksuu) segment of the Aksuu border fault. Three seismic events, including the earthquake of 1911 occurred in the second millennium A.D. This outburst of seismic energy was preceded by two millennia of seismic quiescence, which set in after another pulse of seismic activation. The latter lasted for 1.5 millennia and included five strong earthquakes. The recurrence period of seismic events during the activations is 300–600 years. Hence, the seismic regime along the Chon–Aksuu segment of the Aksuu border fault in the second half of the Holocene was a succession of two seismic activations, each with a duration of 1.0–1.5 ka, which were separated by a 2-ka interval of seismic quiescence. Therefore, the absolute datings of the river terraces of different ages which have been broken by a seismogenic rupture can serve as a reliable source of information about the age of the strong earthquakes that occurred along the seismogenic fault.     

东祁连山北缘断裂带基于深度学习的密集台阵地震事件快速检测与定位研究

为监测东祁连山北缘断裂带附近的地震活动性,布设包含240台短周期地震仪的面状密集台阵,进行约30 d的连续观测。首先使用基于深度学习的多台站地震事件检测算法（CNNDetector）进行地震事件检测,然后使用震相拾取网络（PhaseNet）对地震事件进行P波和S波到时拾取,其次使用震相关联算法（REAL）进行震相关联及初定位,最后使用双差定位（hypoDD）进行地震重定位,最终的精定位地震目录中共有517个地震。在密集台阵观测期间,中国地震台网正式地震目录中共有39个位于台阵内的地震事件,相比而言,密集台阵检测到大量小于0级的地震。因此通过布设密集台阵,可提高活动断裂微地震活动性的监测能力。与历史地震空间分布相比,密集台阵地震精定位分布具有较好的一致性,表现出更明显的线性分布特征。基于地震分布,发现研究区域存在与地表断层迹线走向不同的隐伏活跃断裂。     

郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段地壳速度结构的分段特征及其地质意义

本文采用天然地震近震走时反演地壳三维速度结构的方法获得了郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段及附近地壳(30°N—37°N,113°E—122°E)三维速度结构.对地壳内分层速度结构的分析发现,郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段存在速度的分段特征.郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段浅层35.3°N以北,34.5°N—35.3°N间,33°N—34.5°N间呈现的速度分段和地表出露地层有关,与地质上安丘段、莒县—郯城段,新沂—泗洪段三个破裂单元相对应,且和各段的地震活动相呼应,表明郯庐带新沂到泗洪段可能是断裂的闭锁段.郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段地壳速度结构自浅至深分为三段,大体位置是:南段(32.5°N—33°N以南),中段(32.5°N—33°N至35°N—35.3°N),北段(35°N—35.3°N以北).上地壳分段与苏鲁超高压变质岩带的插入有关,中、下地壳速度分段则可能和火山岩滞留有关.地壳各层速度结构不同段的速度差异反映了构造块体的速度差异,表明各构造块体在地壳下部仍有差异,郯庐带西侧速度总体高于东侧,反映了不同构造块体的形成和组成差别,也说明了该断裂带可能延伸到莫霍面.而不同深度的分段性可能反映了不同地质演化过程.