Net groundwater inflow in an enclosed lake: from synoptic variations to climatic projections

Using lake Stechlin in northeastern Germany as an example of a small groundwater‐feed lake without surface inflows and outflows, we estimated the temporal scales and the variability ranges of the net groundwater contribution to the lake water budget. High‐resolution water level measurements by a bottom‐mounted pressure logger provided the background for the estimation of the total lake water budget. This method has demonstrated reliability for estimation of lake level variations during periods ranging from subdiurnal to perennial. The typical amplitudes of the synoptic‐to‐perennial variability characterizing the groundwater climate of lake Stechlin are estimated by comparing the two subsequent years 2006 and 2007; one of these years shows an extremely high, and the other an extremely low, annual precipitation–evaporation balance. The net groundwater flow, estimated as the difference between the total water budget and the precipitation–evaporation balance at the surface, revealed synoptic effects of lake water exfiltration into the groundwater aquifer following strong precipitation events. Perennial variations between wet and dry years superimposed seasonal oscillations. The probable origin of the latter is seasonality in the groundwater level on the watershed, although the exact amplitudes are subject to further quantification on account of seasonality in the evaporation estimation error. The results emphasize the non‐stationary behaviour of groundwater flow on timescales shorter than climatic ones. The analysis yielded a net quantitative relationship between groundwater flow and water balance at the lake surface: The water level changes in the lake due to evaporation and precipitation are damped to 60% because of the lake–groundwater exchange by means of intermittent infiltration and exfiltration events. Assuming the remaining 40% of the surface water budget may potentially result in perennial water level variability, we estimated an effect of the precipitation decrease on the lake water budget as predicted by the regional climate scenarios for the next century. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

柴达木盆地尕斯库勒盐湖地表水-地下水的转化与铀的补给通量

流域范围内地表水和地下水转化对盐湖成盐元素的运移和富集具有十分重要的意义.本文通过尕斯库勒盐湖盆地内流域水体的水化学和B同位素特征识别了地表水和地下水之间的定量转化关系,在此基础上估算了流域中铀的补给通量.结果表明,流域水体中离子的分异除了蒸发浓缩作用之外,还受重力分异及掺杂作用的影响;上游库拉木勒克萨伊河和阿特阿特坎河水体在出山口附近转入地下并在中游补给地表水和地下水,其补给率分别占48.8%和51.2%,年均补给量分别为1.08×108和1.13×108m3/a;在中游至尾闾盐湖段,阿拉尔河和侧向补给对盐湖卤水的补给率占55.2%,深部水体的补给占44.8%;至少从5.7 ka以来,上游水体对盐湖卤水中铀的补给通量为4.11×103t,在湖积平原黏土沉积带以及祁漫塔格山前局部还原带可能具有较大规模的铀矿.研究结果有助于建立盐湖盆地水循环模式、揭示卤水资源形成机制;同时为尕斯库勒盐湖盆地水资源的高效利用和寻找铀矿提供理论依据和技术支持.     

巴丹吉林沙漠湖泊水分补给机制的模拟——以苏木吉林湖区为例

巴丹吉林沙漠气候干旱,蒸发强烈,与之形成鲜明对比的是沙漠腹地湖泊群的长久不衰,目前对于湖泊水分的补给来源仍存在争议.本文以水量均衡为基础,在苏木吉林湖区开展了降水、蒸发及湖水位和地下水位的动态监测,结合已有的水文地质资料建立地下水流动三维模型,重现湖区地下水位的季节动态变化,并基于模型进行水均衡分析.结果表明:苏木吉林湖区降水入渗补给量不足以平衡湖泊蒸发量,湖泊需要深层承压水的越流补给;湖水位和地下水位均呈现正弦曲线形态,11月最低,4月达到峰值,水位变幅分别为22和18 cm;湖区地下水多年平均总补给量为11620 m3/d,其中降水和承压水越流分别约占13%和87%,降水补给量夏季高、冬季低,承压水越流补给量季节变化不明显;承压水越流补给量可能主要来源于沙漠周边山区降水,未发现明显的水量亏空需要断裂导水来弥补.研究结果为巴丹吉林沙漠地下水资源分析及合理利用提供科学依据.     

Modelling lake stage and water balance of Lake Tana,Ethiopia

The level of Lake Tana, Ethiopia, fluctuates annually and seasonally following the patterns of changes in precipitation. In this study, a mass balance approach is used to estimate the hydrological balance of the lake. Water influx from four major rivers, subsurface inflow from the floodplains, precipitation, outflow from the lake constituting river discharge and evapotranspiration from the lake are analysed on monthly and annual bases. Spatial interpolation of precipitation using rain gauge data was conducted using kriging. Outflow from the lake was identified as the evaporation from the lake's surface as well as discharge at the outlet where the Blue Nile commences. Groundwater inflow is estimated using MODular three‐dimensional finite‐difference ground‐water FLOW model software that showed an aligned flow pattern to the river channels. The groundwater outflow is considered negligible based on the secondary sources that confirmed the absence of lake water geochemical mixing outside of the basin. Evaporation is estimated using Penman's, Meyer's and Thornwaite's methods to compare the mass balance and energy balance approaches. Meteorological data, satellite images and temperature perturbation simulations from Global Historical Climate Network of National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration are employed for estimation of evaporation input parameters. The difference of the inflow and outflow was taken as storage in depth and compared with the measured water level fluctuations. The study has shown that the monthly and annually calculated lake level replicates the observed values with root mean square error value of 0·17 and 0·15 m, respectively. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of transmission losses and groundwater recharge from runoff events in a wadi under shortage of data on lateral inflow,Negev, Israel

A hydrological–lithostratigraphical model was developed for assessment of transmission losses and groundwater recharge from runoff events in arid water courses where hydrological and meteorological records are incomplete. Water balance equations were established for reaches between hydrometric stations. Because rainfall and tributary flow data are scarce, lateral inflow, which is an essential component of the water balance equation, could not be estimated directly. The solution was obtained by developing a method which includes a hydrological–lithostratigraphical analogy. This is based on the following assumptions: (a) runoff resulting from a given rainfall event is related to the watershed surface lithology; (b) for a given event, the spatial distribution of runoff reflects the distribution of rainfall: and (c) transmission losses are uniquely related to the total inflow to the reach. The latter relationship, called the loss function, and the water balance equation comprise a model which simultaneously assesses lateral inflow and transmission losses for runoff events recorded at the terminal stations. The model was applied to three reaches of the arid Nahal Tsin in Israel. In this case study, the transmission losses were of the same order of magnitude as the flow at the major hydrometric stations. The losses were subdivided into channel moistening, which subsequently evaporates, and deep percolation, which recharges groundwater. For large runoff events, evaporation was substantially smaller than the losses. The mean annual recharge of groundwater from runoff events in the Tsin watershed was 4·1×10⁶ m³, while the mean annual flow volume at the major stations ranged from 0·6 to 1·5×10⁶ m³. Once in 100 years, the annual recharge may be seven times higher than the mean annual value, but the recharge during most years is very small. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mining lakes as groundwater‐dominated hydrological systems: assessment of the water balance of Mining Lake Plessa 117 (Lusatia,Germany) using stable isotopes

In the present study, the stable isotopes δ¹⁸O and δ²H were used for assessment of the water balance in a heterogeneously structured catchment area in the Lusatian Lignite Mining District, in particular, for estimation of the annual groundwater inflow and outflow (I_GW and O_GW) of Mining Lake Plessa 117. The application of stable isotopes was possible since the water exchange in the catchment area had reached steady‐state conditions after the abandonment of mining activities in 1968 and the filling of the voids and aquifers by re‐rising groundwater in the years thereafter. Diverging slopes of the Evaporation Line and the Global Meteoric Water Line manifested as evaporation from the lake catchment area. The calculated isotope water balance was compared with the commonly used surface water balance, which is unable to differentiate between I_GW and O_GW, and with a local groundwater model. The groundwater model calculated an I_GW of about 811 000 m³ yr^?1 and an O_GW close to zero, whereas the isotope water balance showed fluxes of about 914 000 and 140 000 m³ yr^?1, respectively. Considering the contribution of the groundwater inflow to the total annual input into the lake (ΔI_T) and the mean residence time (τ), where the groundwater model and the isotope water balance calculated 42 and 47% for ΔI_T and 4·3 and 3·9 years for τ, respectively, it was shown that both water balance calculation methods led to comparable results despite the differences in I_GW and O_GW. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于水平衡模型的呼伦湖湖泊水量变化

针对北方寒旱区呼伦湖水位下降、水面萎缩的现象,根据气候特征,利用月水量平衡模型探究湖泊水文过程并揭示其变化规律.在此基础上,利用不同气候条件下各水平衡项对于湖泊水位的影响程度确定水位升降的直接原因.基于1963-1980年间水位的实测数据,根据水量平衡原理及其他辅助计算判断出湖泊与周边区域存在着地下水的交换,且具有一定的规律性,即历年11月至次年3月期间的累积降雪融化渗入土壤中形成浅层径流补给湖泊,而7、8月份湖泊补给周边草原.基于以上规律,根据周边坡面汇流、地下水与湖泊交换量的年内变化特征,利用水平衡方程式推算湖泊1981-2008年逐月水位变化,并与其他研究成果比较,吻合度较高.不同气候条件下,径流量对于湖泊水位的影响程度最为突出,是水位变化的主控因子.     

Determination of groundwater discharge rates and water residence time of groundwater‐fed lakes by stable isotopes of water (18O, 2H) and radon (222Rn) mass balances

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) and the related water residence time are crucial parameters for quantifying lake matter budgets and assessing its vulnerability to contaminant input. Our approach utilizes the stable isotopes of water (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) and the radioisotope radon (²²²Rn) for determining long‐term average and short‐term snapshots in LGD. We conducted isotope balances for the 0.5‐km² Lake Ammelshainer See (Germany) based on measurements of lake isotope inventories and groundwater composition accompanied by good quality and comprehensive long‐term meteorological and isotopic data (precipitation) from nearby monitoring stations. The results from the steady‐state annual isotope balances that rely on only two sampling campaigns are consistent for both δ¹⁸O and δ²H and suggested an overall long‐term average LGD rate that was used to infer the water residence time of the lake. These findings were supported by the good agreement of the simulated LGD‐driven annual cycles of δ¹⁸O and δ²H lake inventories with the observed lake isotope inventories. However, radon mass balances revealed lower values that might be the result of seasonal LGD variability. For obtaining further insights into possible seasonal variability of groundwater–lake interaction, stable water isotope and radon mass balances could be conducted more frequently (e.g., monthly) in order to use the derived groundwater discharge rates as input for time‐variant isotope balances.     

Determining the causes for the dramatic recent fall of Lake Prespa (southwest Balkans)

Mediterranean lake–wetland systems are threatened by climate change and intensive human impacts. Individual lake responses to these threats are poorly known but urgently required to steer preservation strategies. The dramatic water-level fall (~8 m since 1987) of Lake Megali Prespa endangers this global biodiversity hotspot and the wider catchment’s water resources. Annual lake fluctuations are found to be strongly related to wet-season (Oct.–Apr.) precipitation variability, which is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The lake primarily adjusts to sustained inflow changes through amending surface evaporation. Cumulative water abstraction since 1951 (~19 × 10⁶ m³/year: ~0.006% of lake volume) explains ~70% of the long-term decrease in surface evaporation; climate variability explains the remainder. Persistent low lake levels after 1995 are caused by water abstraction. Compared to 1952/53–1977/78, the period 1978/79–2003/04 experienced significant decreases in wet-season precipitation, snowfall and discharge; the number of very dry years increased.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten     

Measured effects of new lake surfaces on regional precipitation

Abstract

Although often modelled, empirical evidence for regional water balance shifts, due to local land-use changes, is rare. The same holds for the quantification of such effects by measurement. The flooding of former open-cast mining areas in Lusatia, eastern Germany, delivers a unique opportunity to address this topic in a well-gauged region. During two decades, flooding changed about 60 km² of lignite pits to lake surfaces. To quantify possible shifts in the regional precipitation pattern, the background of general precipitation dynamics within the research area was separated from all raingauge records using principal component analysis (PCA). Linear models with the dominating PCA component as independent variable were fitted to the single station records. The residuals of these fits represent the local deviations from the general dynamics, and they contain the signals of climate alterations within the region. The analysis of these residuals revealed a shifting precipitation pattern with significant increases (up to 10% of the former mean annual precipitation, which is approximately 650 mm) on the lee side of the developing lake area. Further analysis showed that most of the observed changes are due to more frequent and intense convective storms. Water balance estimations indicate that the additional evaporation approximately equals the precipitation increase.     

基于氡同位素的平原湖荡枯水期湖水地下水补排通量

水是人类生存之源,而湖荡被称为地球之“肾”,是河湖水系连接的关键缓冲节点,与人类生存和发展息息相关。长三角平原水系众多,河流纵横,天然湖泊与人工沟渠遍布,平原湖荡湖水与周边地下水的水力联系较为频繁,而地下水对湖泊水均衡贡献尚不明确,对平原湖荡地下水赋存和运移规律的认识不足。本研究以苏州吴江区元荡湖为研究对象,选取氡同位素作为湖水和地下水水力交换过程的示踪剂,建立氡箱模型,揭示元荡湖不同区段与地下水的水力联系过程和补给关系,并通过水位动态验证分析湖水—地下水交互关系。枯水期元荡湖水位和氡浓度空间分布特征指示研究区内地下水向湖水排泄,其中以湖泊西侧较为明显,地下水入流补给的氡为7.137×10⁶ Bq/d,输入量源项占比为90%,地下水流入量为4540.801 m³/d,地下水每日流入量对元荡湖水量的贡献率为2.551%。参数敏感性分析结果表明,风速与地下水²²²Rn活度为特别敏感参数,取值差异较大时会导致计算误差急剧增大,改善测点布置和提高模型参数精度能有效提高模型计算结果的准确性和可靠程度。借助氡同位素示踪方法,建立湖泊...     

Evapotranspiration and runoff in a forest watershed,western Japan

A Note has been published for this article in Hydrological Processes 18(4) 2004, 825. Both water and heat balances were studied in a conifer plantation watershed in south‐west Japan, within the warm‐temperate East Asia monsoon area. Forest cover in the watershed consists mainly of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) and Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations. Precipitation and runoff have been observed since 1991, so evapotranspiration can be compared with the water balance. Two meteorological observation towers were built to monitor evapotranspiration in the watershed. The annual average precipitation, amount of runoff and losses were 2166, 1243 and 923 mm, respectively. The evapotranspiration (latent heat flux) agreed well with the water balance losses. The average annual evapotranspiration at the tower built in the centre of the watershed was 902 mm; evapotranspiration at the other tower, further upslope, was 875 mm. The observed evapotranspiration was 39% to 40% of the average precipitation (2166 mm). The mean net radiation was c. 2·6 GJ m^?2 year^?1, and is considered a representative value of the net radiation (Rn) in coniferous plantations in this region. This region is classified in the humid zone based on the ratio of net radiation (Rn) to the energy required to evaporate the rainfall (λR). The mean annual evaporation of canopy‐intercepted water was 356 mm or about 15% of the average precipitation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1990—2019年咸海水量平衡及其影响因素分析

咸海地处中亚,气候和人类的双重影响下湖面急剧萎缩引发区域生态危机,定量解析其水量平衡互动关系及影响因素对咸海地区水资源管理和生态保护有重要意义.基于1990—2019年密集时序Landsat影像、T/P卫星、Jason1/2测高卫星及咸海数字测深模型（DBM）,提取近30年咸海面积、水位变化信息,重建咸海水位-面积-库容曲线,探明咸海水量变化特征;建立水量平衡模型,定量分析研究区水量平衡要素变化及时空差异,探讨其互动关系与影响机制.结果表明：（1）1990—2019年间,咸海水量减少了2271.6×10⁸ m³（约75.15%）,年平均变化率达-78.3×10⁸ m³/a;南咸海水量变化趋势与咸海整体基本一致,北咸海除1999年出现了极小值外,其余年份水量变化趋势均呈波动上升状态,至2019年水位已恢复至1984年水平.（2）1990s以来,南、北咸海水量平衡结构变化时空差异显著,阿姆河入湖径流量呈波动减少趋势,随着咸海持续退缩水体蒸发不断减小,区域水量支出收入比由1990年的2.46降低到2015年的0.87;近年来丰水年份南咸海地下水可由亏损转化为盈余状态,水域变化进入相对平缓的状态.北咸海入湖径流量波动增加,蒸散发随水域面积增加而增加,1990s初以来水量收入超过水量支出,区域地下水盈余,湖泊水位不断抬升.（3）湖区尺度上,入湖径流量和水域蒸发量是咸海水量变化的主导因素.流域尺度上,气候变化与人类活动共同影响咸海入湖水量,南咸海入湖水量与阿姆河上游来水、流域耕地面积显著相关,而北咸海入湖水量主要与锡尔河上游来水相关.     

Evaporation estimation on Lake Titicaca: a synthesis review and modelling

The aim of this study was to validate evaporation models that can be used for palaeo‐reconstructions of large lake water levels. Lake Titicaca, located in a high‐altitude semi‐arid tropical area in the northern Andean Altiplano, was the object of this case study. As annual evaporation is about 90% of lake output, the lake water balance depends heavily on the yearly and monthly evaporation flux. At the interannual scale, evaporation estimation presents great variability, ranging from 1350 to 1900 mm year^?1. It has been found that evaporation is closely related to lake rainfall by a decreasing relationship integrating the implicit effect of nebulosity and humidity. At the seasonal scale, two monthly evaporation data sets were used: pan observations and estimations derived from the lake energy budget. Comparison between these data sets shows that (i) there is one maximum per year for pan evaporation and two maxima per year for lake evaporation, and (ii) pan evaporation is greater than lake evaporation by about 100 mm year^?1. These differences, mainly due to a water depth scale factor, have been simulated with a simple thermal model θ_w(h, t) of a free‐surface water column. This shows that pan evaporation (h = 0·20 m) is strongly correlated with direct solar radiation, whereas the additional maximum of lake evaporation (h = 40 m) is related to the heat restitution towards the atmosphere from the water body at the end of summer. Finally, five monthly evaporation models were tested in order to obtain the optimal efficiency/complexity ratio. When the forcing variables are limited to those that are most readily available in the past, i.e. air temperature and solar radiation, the best results are obtained with the radiative Abtew model (r = 0·70) and with the Makkink radiative/air temperature model (r = 0·67). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological cycle and water balance estimates for the megadune–lake region of the Badain Jaran Desert,China

The hydrology and water balance of megadunes and lakes have been investigated in the Badain Jaran Desert of China. Field observations and analyses of sand layer water content, field capacity, secondary salt content, and grain size reveal 3 types of important natural phenomenon: (a) vegetation bands on the leeward slope of the megadunes reflect the hydrological regime within the sandy vadose zone; (b) seepage, wet sand deposits, and secondary salt deposits indicate the pattern of water movement within the sandy vadose zone; (c) zones of groundwater seeps and descending springs around the lakes reflect the influence of the local topography on the hydrological regime of the megadunes. The seepage exposed on the sloping surface of the megadunes and gravity water contained within the sand layer confirm the occurrence of preferential flow within the vadose zone of the megadunes. Alternating layers of coarse and fine sand create the conditions for the formation of preferential flows. The preferential flows promote movement of water within the sand layer water that leads to deep penetration of water within the megadunes and ultimately to the recharging of groundwater and lake water. Our results indicate that a positive water balance promotes recharge of the megadunes, which depends on the high permeability of the megadune material, the shallow depth of the surface sand layer affected by evaporation, the occurrence of rainfall events exceeding 15 mm, and the sparse vegetation cover. Water balance estimates indicate that the annual water storage of the megadunes is about 7.5 mm, accounting for only 8% of annual precipitation; however, the shallow groundwater per unit area under the megadunes receives only 3.6% of annual precipitation, but it is still able to maintain a dynamic balance of the lake water. From a water budget perspective, the annual water storage in the megadunes is sufficient to serve as a recharge source for lake water, thereby enabling the long‐term persistence of the lakes. Overall, our findings demonstrate that precipitation is a significant component of the hydrological cycle in arid deserts.     

内蒙古呼伦湖水量平衡计算与分析

根据呼伦湖的实际水文过程,计算1963-1980年月水量平衡,在此基础上,分析库容与径流、径流+降雨、径流+降雨-蒸发的相关性.利用累积和分析水位、径流、降雨、蒸发年均值的突变情况,进而重点论述了2000年后水位持续降低的原因.同时,探讨各水平衡项的年内分布规律及相互关系.结果表明,2000年后水位的急剧降低是气候变化(暖干化)造成的.河川径流对水位的影响程度最大,其次为湖面降雨.每年4、5月,冰封期积累的降雪融化渗入地下补给湖泊,其他时间则由湖泊补给地下水.     

Characterizing replenishment water,lake water and groundwater interactions by numerical modelling in arid regions: a case study of Shahu Lake

In order to maintain the scenic and eco-environmental values of a lake, we need to characterize its water interactions. Shahu Lake was used as a case study to show the interactions among replenishment water, lake water and groundwater in an arid region. Shahu Lake is located in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of northwest China and has an area of 13.96 km² and an average depth of 2.2 m. The groundwater modelling software MODFLOW was used. The analysis results show that hydraulic connectivity among replenishment water, lake water and groundwater is the crucial driving factor that affects the water level in Shahu Lake. The lake water level is highly sensitive to the volume of replenishment water. The groundwater is of great importance in balancing the water level in the lake and preventing it from drying up. It was determined that 13.8 × 10⁶ m³/yr is the optimal volume of replenishment water for Shahu Lake in order to maintain the lake level at its normal state and also to make the best use of available water resources on a long-term basis. Understanding of the water interactions can promote effective management of water resources in Shahu Lake.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Hughes     

鄱阳湖流域径流模型

流域径流是鄱阳湖主要来水,建立鄱阳湖流域径流模型对揭示湖泊水量平衡及其受流域自然和人类活动的影响具有重要意义.针对鄱阳湖-流域系统的特点:流域面积大(16.22×104km2)、多条入湖河流、湖滨区坡面入湖径流等,研究了相应的模拟方法,建立了考虑流域土壤属性和土地利用空间变化的鄱阳湖流域分布式径流模型.采用6个水文站1991-2001年的实测河道径流对模型进行了率定和验证.结果显示,模型整体模拟精度较高.其中,赣江、信江和饶河均取得了较好的模拟结果,月效率系数为0.82-0.95;抚河和修水模拟精度略低,为0.65-0.78.模型揭示了研究时段内年平均入湖径流总量为1623×108m3,其中,赣江最多,占47%,其次为信江和抚河,分别占13%和12%,湖滨区坡面入湖径流约占4%,其余24%来自饶河、修水以及其它入湖支流.模型将用于评估流域下垫面或气候变化引起的入湖水量变化,为湖泊水量平衡计算提供依据.     

Application of chloride profile and water balance methods in estimating groundwater recharge in Luanjing Irrigation Area,Inner Mongolia / Application des méthodes du profil de chlorure et du bilan hydrique pour l'estimation de la recharge hydrogéologique dans le Périmètre Irrigué de Luanjing,Mongolie Intérieure

Abstract

A study was carried out to investigate the use of the chloride profile method in conjunction with the water balance method to estimate the annual groundwater recharge in both natural and irrigation sites in Luanjing Irrigation Area, Inner Mongolia. Groundwater recharge from precipitation, estimated by the chloride profile method, is less than 0.1 mm year^?1 which accounts for just 0.06% of the long-term average annual rainfall, indicating that rainfall presently plays a minor role in the groundwater recharge. It appears that recharge events only occurred after heavy rain or sustained rainfall events. In the cropped area, the chloride profile method indicated that the average annual recharge is 268 mm year^?1 with an infiltration rate of 32.5%, which is reasonably consistent with the 33.1% obtained by the water balance method in 2007. The study shows that about one third of that water is discharged back to the groundwater.     

Understanding changes in the water budget driven by climate change in cryospheric‐dominated watershed of the northeast Tibetan Plateau,China

Glacial retreat and the thawing of permafrost due to climate warming have altered the hydrological cycle in cryospheric‐dominated watersheds. In this study, we analysed the impacts of climate change on the water budget for the upstream of the Shule River Basin on the northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that temperature and precipitation increased significantly during 1957–2010 in the study area. The hydrological cycle in the study area has intensified and accelerated under recent climate change. The average increasing rate of discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin was 7.9 × 10⁶ m³/year during 1957–2010. As the mean annual glacier mass balance lost ?62.4 mm/year, the impact of glacier discharge on river flow has increased, especially after the 2000s. The contribution of glacier melt to discharge was approximately 187.99 × 10⁸ m³ or 33.4% of the total discharge over the study period. The results suggested that the impact of warming overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off increase during the study period. The evapotranspiration (ET) increased during 1957–2010 with a rate of 13.4 mm/10 years. On the basis of water balance and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the Global Land Data Assimilation System data, the total water storage change showed a decreasing trend, whereas groundwater increased dramatically after 2006. As permafrost has degraded under climate warming, surface water can infiltrate deep into the ground, thus changing both the watershed storage and the mechanisms of discharge generation. Both the change in terrestrial water storage and changes in groundwater have had a strong control on surface discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin. Future trends in run‐off are forecasted based on climate scenarios. It is suggested that the impact of warming will overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off in the study area. Further studies such as this will improve understanding of water balance in cold high‐elevation regions.