The price ripple effect in the Vancouver housing market

Attempts to model the dynamic characteristics of a housing market include examining the spatial diffusion of price changes from an epicenter through a regional or national network of geographic units. Less common has been the study of a ripple effect of price changes within a single metropolitan area, with implications for the erosion of residential affordability. Such trends have particular salience within the Vancouver metropolitan area, the least affordable housing market in North America. Using quarterly price data from local real estate boards, we examine price changes through municipal regions from 2005–2017, a period including several externally-induced price shocks. Several techniques test for a ripple effect in price movements. A time lag of three months consistently exists in the communication of price shocks from an originating epicenter to other parts of the metropolitan region, with longer lags with several more distant municipalities, confirming the presence of an intra-metropolitan ripple effect.     

Concentration or Dispersion? Location Choice of Commercial Developers in the Portland Metropolitan Area, 2000–2007

This study develops nested logit models to explore the location choice of commercial developers in the Portland metropolitan area, a region that is widely known for its progressive urban growth management. The purposes are to study the dynamics of urban spatial structure from the supply side of the real estate market and to test the capacity of regional governments to manage urban growth by influencing the location choices of developers. The model results indicate that commercial development in the Portland region showed a clear trend of decentralization from its central city. Decentralized commercial developments were not generally dispersed in suburban areas either. Instead, commercial developers tended to locate them in locations within or in close proximity to employment subcenters. Among many control variables tested in the models, availability of vacant land zoned for commercial and industrial purposes proved to be the most important predictor for new commercial development.     

中国地级市房地产开发与人居环境耦合发展空间格局

中国房地产业历经近30年的发展,主要集中于经济较活跃、环境较适宜、基础设施与公共服务较完善、人居环境较适宜的城市,房地产开发的地域差异逐渐突出。科学适度的房地产开发能为人们提供良好的人居环境,而过度的房地产开发则会抑制人居环境质量的提升。基于房地产开发与人居环境耦合发展视角,建立了中国城市房地产开发与人居环境耦合度评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和耦合发展度模型,对286个地级市单元的房地产开发进行空间格局分析。结果显示：① 中国地级单元城市房地产开发与人居环境整体协调度处于磨合阶段,虽未达到协调水平,但相互作用与影响力较强,其中协调度最高的为南京市;② 房地产开发与人居环境整体发展度处于较低水平,且空间分布非常不均衡,耦合发展度最高的为深圳市;③ 基于耦合协调度和发展度可将中国地级行政单元划分为9个类型,政府应根据不同类型采取差别化的房地产开发调控政策。     

北京大都市土地开发的乘数效应和增长模式研究

本依据1992－2000年北京地区2000多个土地开发项目统计资料，通过实证对城市土地空间开发的理论模式进行研究。结果表明，城市特定区域的土地开发，表现为乘数效应作用下的逻辑斯蒂增长。根据模型对各环线和扇面模拟的相关系数高达0．95以上。在此基础上，结合北京举办奥运会带来的巨大投资规模，预测北京大市土地开发的趋势。     

城市土地利用—交通集成模型的构建与应用

中国目前正经历着城市化转型,科学合理的空间政策是城市可持续发展的重要保障,因此开展政策情景实验、辅助空间决策具有重要现实意义。本文构建了土地利用—交通集成模型,模拟城市活动空间分布,称作SDA（Spatial Distribution of Activities）模型。该模型主要包含4个子模型：交通模型、家庭区位模型、经济活动区位模型、房租模型;并以北京市为例模拟土地利用政策对城市空间发展的影响。研究表明,延续过去5年（2009-2013年）房地产开发模式至2030年,则由于周边房地产开发数量较高、房租较低,越来越多的人口和企业将向郊区聚集（增长速度更大）。该趋势与目前疏解北京社会经济活动、缓解交通拥堵的规划目标相一致,模型可以很好地检验土地利用政策情景影响。而“基于活动”的模型被认为是模型发展趋势,因此,本文构建的SDA模型不仅可以检验不同政策对城市空间影响、辅助城市空间决策,也有助于推动LUTI模型的发展及其在国内的应用,丰富和发展国内城市空间模拟分析的研究内容。     

中国城市地价水平及变化影响因素分析

城市地价的影响因素众多且复杂,地价水平和地价变化趋势受到社会、经济、政策等多方面因素的共同影响。论文从城市土地供需和宏观政策角度选取房地产投资额、市辖区建设用地面积、耕地占用税等10 项影响因素,采用2008-2010 年全国105 个土地市场较发育城市分季度地价数据,建立地价水平值与地价增长率影响因素的多层线性模型,定量分析了不同行政层次下,各影响因素对城市土地价格和地价增长率的影响程度。研究结论显示,地价水平值与地价增长率的影响因素不尽相同,且主导因素差异显著：在市级地价影响因素中,房地产投资增长是地价上升的直接动力,而地价增长率则主要受城市建设用地面积、房地产投资额的影响较;省级耕地保护政策对平抑地价、控制地价涨速作用显著,其中新增建设用地土地有偿使用费和耕地占用税是省级层次影响最显著的两项政策指标。     

中国城市区域治理的尺度重构与尺度政治

系统回顾西方尺度理论,尤其是尺度生产(尺度重构与尺度政治)理论,借此阐释中国城市区域治理形成的尺度逻辑.研究发现,中国城市区域包括城市群与都市区2个地理尺度;治理尺度是以行政权力为核心,形成自上而下的行政权力金字塔;治理尺度的动态重配并与地理尺度相耦合的过程是中国城市区域治理的尺度建构的本质;改革开放后,中国宏观政治经...     

城市住宅空间分布模拟研究

构建城市住宅开发模拟模型（FDM）,并以北京市为案例,模拟城市住宅规模时空演化。FDM综合考虑了政策限制和市场规律模拟开发商决策行为,分4个步骤预测城市住宅面积的空间分布格局演变过程： ①假设无政府限制条件、开发商追求最大利润的前提下,预测城市住宅开发总面积;②在政府限制条件下,对上述预测结果予以修正,预测实际住宅开发总面积;③根据各区块的利润以及政策许可对住宅开发面积进行空间配置;④确定各个区块的建筑规模总量。北京案例表明,延续近几年住宅开发模式,未来住宅规模的增长主要发生在五环外,尤其是五环到六环的区域,而中心城区的开发程度较弱。一方面是由于城市中心地带已经被高度开发,土地利用空间较小;另一方面与政府疏解中心人口、缓解交通阻塞的政策有关。FDM模型的开发为城市土地利用政策的制定提供了良好的模拟分析工具,为城市空间模拟分析研究提供方法上的参考。     

Decentralization and local institutional arrangements for wetland management in Ethiopia and Sierra Leone

In Ethiopia and Sierra Leone, recent social, political and environmental transformations have precipitated the intensification of wetland use, as local people have sought to safeguard and strengthen their livelihoods. Concurrent decentralization policies in both countries have also seen the government strengthen its position at the local level. Drawing upon recent field-based evidence from Ethiopia and Sierra Leone, this paper examines the compatibility between community-based local institutions for wetland use, and the process of decentralization. It argues that decentralization has in fact restricted the development of mature local institutional arrangements, due to its intrinsically political interventionist nature.     

基于点状数据与GIS的广州大都市区产业空间格局

利用2004年数字城市数据,研究了广州大都市区产业内部、产业之间的空间关系,比较了广州大都市区中心城区和新城区各种产业的空间格局。将广州大都市区行业分为制造业、批发和运输、零售、生产服务业、房地产业、管理服务、教育、医疗保健及社会扶助和娱乐设施等10类。利用1 km2格网画出了各行业点状密度,并通过分区产业百分比及区位商分析了各产业企业的空间分布,中心城区的主导产业是管理服务、房地产、零售及金融保险等服务行业,而在新城区其主导功能是制造业、批发与运输及生产服务业等。利用平均最邻近距离分析广州大都市区中心城区和新城区各产业内企业之间的空间关系,广州大都市区各产业企业都呈凝聚分布,在中心城区金融行业分布最集中,其次是房地产、生产服务业、娱乐、管理服务等。利用邻近性指数分析了各产业之间的空间关系,发现生产服务业和管理服务业、教育和医疗保健与社会扶助、娱乐和零售等邻近性较大。     

杭州市房地产企业空间集聚特征与区位选择

房地产业是中国国民经济的重要支柱行业,从微观视角解析房地产企业空间格局与区位选择因素对指导中国城市房地产业健康发展至关重要.论文基于杭州市房地产业工商企业登记数据,采用最近邻指数、Ripley'sK函数、最近邻层次聚类等空间点模式方法以及地理探测器模型,系统分析了杭州市房地产企业空间集聚特征与区位选择影响因素,研究结果...     

Entrepreneurial city and the restructuring of urban space in Shanghai Expo

ABSTRACT

This study examines the restructuring of urban space brought about by Shanghai Expo. The focus is on how the municipal government strategically makes use of this mega-event program to proactively implement two entrepreneurial spatial policies, namely economic restructuring and population decentralization. Specifically, it critically investigates the omnipotent government’s policies in terms of industrial relocation and residential resettlement leading up to the Shanghai Expo. Shanghai’s entrepreneurial city building, at the metropolitan level, has long been associated with the optimization of spatial structure. The empirical findings reveal that the negotiations involved in relocating enterprises were tougher when they took place within the state system, as compared to those between the government and foreign or private sectors. At the same time, social groups remained excluded from decision-making processes for resettlement, and there was a downscaling of governance, which contributed to improved efficiency of the resettlement work. The Shanghai municipal government was key to the restructuring and entrepreneurial city building, engaging, on the one hand, in negotiations on spatial relocation with central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) at the level of the central government and mobilizing, on the other hand, lower-tier government authorities to deliver the resettlement plan. This paper argues that the development of the entrepreneurial city in Shanghai depends essentially on the way local government implemented the policy and that an integrated approach is significant to attaining the goals and objectives.     

Heterolocalism,Networks of Ethnicity,and Refugee Communities in the Pacific Northwest: The Portland Story*

Geographic studies of refugee issues have emerged as salient topics of inquiry in the past decade. This spatial analysis of the migration experiences and heterolocal settlement patterns of refugees in an increasingly diverse part of the Pacific Northwest focuses on a place that the Atlantic Monthly recently called the last Caucasian bastion in the United States. Perceived as a region better known for its dense forests, progressive environmental policies, and rural ambience, the Portland metropolitan area and its hinterland in the Willamette Valley now resonate with ethnic and racial diversity. This article analyzes the spatial patterns and related networks of the three largest refugee groups in the region. Findings indicate that an overlapping and interrelated set of political, social, cultural, and economic networks are the most important factors in determining refugee residential patterns.     

Sprawl Without Growth in Eastern Germany

This article examines sprawl without growth in former East Germany at a number of different metropolitan scales using a dataset from the Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung (Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning). Specific political, social, and economic circumstances in eastern Germany following reunification distinguish it not only from other declining regions, but also from some of its post-socialist neighbors that underwent similar urban spatial transformations after the fall of communism. Explanations for this phenomenon include: increasing incomes and latent demand for housing, which remained suppressed under communism; specific policies adopted after reunification that subsidized greenfield development at the metropolitan fringe; a lack of planning at the local, regional, and state levels in the immediate aftermath of reunification; and changing demographic patterns. Although a number of the factors exacerbating sprawl in the post-reunification period have disappeared, overall demographic decline in eastern Germany continues.     

Caustics and focusing produced by sedimentary basins: applications of catastrophe theory to earthquake seismology

Summary. As high-frequency elastic waves propagate through real media, it is common for caustics and focusing to occur. Typically, rays may envelop a caustic surface in space, or exceptionally they may all coalesce at a focal point. In strong motion seismology, the observed large fluctuations in peak acceleration and intensity of ground shaking may just be a consequence of focusing and caustics created by waves propagating through irregularly shaped sedimentary basins. These basins, acting as deformed optical lenses, are capable of producing a complex network of patches and seemingly isolated pockets of intensified damage or high intensity shaking where the caustic intersects the ground surface. We adapt methods from optics and catastrophe theory to study the properties of caustics induced by typical sedimentary basins. Several hypothetical examples are shown that reflect the fact that these properties are useful to assess quantitatively the degree of wavefield amplification to be expected. A good correlation is found between actual damage patterns and caustic locations computed for the Caracas, Venezuela earthquake of 1967.     

中国制造业省区分布及其影响因素

改革开放以来,中国制造业空间格局发生了显著变化,多数产业在20世纪80年代趋于空间分散而在90年代趋于地理集中;大部分省区的制造业结构逐渐多元化,90年代后期以来趋于专业化。中国制造业的地理格局存在显著的产业间差异,出口加工型产业越来越向沿海省区集中,原材料指向型更加接近资源地而比较分散,消费市场导向型产业需要就近市场也趋于分散,各地区竞相发展的高利润、高税收产业也更趋于分散。本文系统考察了影响各制造业省区地理分布的区位因素,发现影响我国制造业省区分布的重要因素依次为政策和制度因素、劳动力素质和成本、规模经济、自然资源和区位通达性,但不同类型产业的地理分布影响因素差异较大。     

深圳市房地产系统仿真及政策实验研究

基于系统动力学方法,构建了深圳市房地产系统仿真模型,在现状条件下,对1997～2010年的深圳市房地产系统进行了仿真和预测模拟,并进行了包括土地、人口、金融、通关等一系列可操作的政策实验.仿真结果表明,深圳市房地产市场总体发展是健康合理的,但在未来2～3年内存在住宅供应压力较大的隐患.根据政策实验结果提出了相应的措施和建议.     

THE CHANGING METROPOLITAN STRUCTURE OF ATLANTA,GEORGIA: LOCATIONS OF FUNCTIONS AND REGIONAL STRUCTURE IN A MULTINUCLEATED URBAN AREA

The study of suburban downtowns in the past has emphasized the emergence of multinucleation in urban structure and the growing independence of multiple urban realms. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework to identify and compare the employment profiles of each downtown in a metropolitan area, including the CBD. Using data on retail employment, services, and finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE), the four downtowns that exist in the Atlanta region are examined, together with scattered-site employment. This study suggests that downtowns, rather than existing as independent urban realms, are mutually interdependent based on work-trip commuting patterns, shopping behavior, and traffic flows in general, all of which increasingly are automobile based. Mass transit ridership suffers from its primary focus on radial services to and from the CBD and poor service levels to other downtowns and to scattered employment sites.     

URBAN GROWTH COALITIONS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICY: POSTWAR GROWTH AND THE POLITICS OF ANNEXATION IN METROPOLITAN COLUMBUS

The "political economy of place" has emerged as an important theme in urban research in recent years. Within this theme, scholars have highlighted the role of so-called urban growth coalitions in the creation of conditions favorable for urban economic development. Among their activities, growth coalitions may be interested in jurisdictional organization and, in particular, municipal annexation. This paper examines the conditions that have facilitated annexation as a postwar growth policy in metropolitan Columbus, Ohio, and the role of urban growth coalitions in shaping the policy. The policy has been effective to the extent that annexation to Columbus for municipal purposes has not included decisions on the transfer of school district territory.     

Immigration,local policy,and national identity in the suburban United States

Since 2000, the American suburb has emerged as a principal destination for new immigrants to the United States, both documented and undocumented. Whereas some suburban communities have responded to perceived undocumented immigrants with hostility in the form of exclusionary local immigration policies, others have introduced policies designed to welcome immigrants independent of federal legal status. In this article, I employ a qualitative comparative case study analysis of four local immigration policies in the Chicago and Washington DC metropolitan areas to explain how suburbs justify their policy positions. I find that these suburban communities relied on conceptions of American identity and the ‘American Dream’ in support of their policies, but leveraged these tropes in vastly different ways depending on the broader strategic purposes of the policies. These divergent suburban immigration policies both challenge traditional notions of suburban political and cultural homogeneity and reveal how such heterogeneity has produced a distinct unevenness in contemporary local policy responses to undocumented immigration within metropolitan regions.