Modeling Geographic Variation in Household Disaster Preparedness across U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

Emerging statistical techniques, combined with the increasing accessibility of primary social survey data, can provide policy-relevant tools for understanding how perceptions and behaviors vary geographically. Planning for natural disasters requires local data, yet data on topics such as household preparedness behaviors are often unavailable at the appropriate spatial resolution. This article presents new nationwide estimates of one element of household preparedness—having supplies in the home to use in case of a disaster—across all states and metropolitan areas in the United States. Estimates are based on a 2015 national survey combined with multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP), a statistical technique to develop subnational estimates from national data sets. The model uses sociodemographic and geographic predictors informed by prior research. Estimates were externally validated against independent surveys, including data from the 2013 American Housing Survey. Comparing the estimates against historical disaster losses demonstrates broad variation in preparedness even among places with historically high rates of death and injury from natural disasters and allows identification of high-risk places with high disaster losses and low preparedness according to this survey item. Leveraging large survey data sets in combination with MRP can be an effective tool for researchers and decision makers to understand geographic variation in perceptions and behaviors at subnational scales.     

Urban Form,Air Pollution,and CO2 Emissions in Large U.S. Metropolitan Areas

In this article we explore the relationships between urban form and air pollution among 86 U.S. metropolitan areas. Urban form was quantified using preexisting sprawl indexes and spatial metrics applied to remotely sensed land cover data. Air pollution data included the nonpoint source emission of the ozone (O₃) precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the concentration of O₃, the concentration and nonpoint source emission of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from on-road sources. Metropolitan areas that exhibited higher levels of urban sprawl, or sprawl-like urban morphologies, generally exhibited higher concentrations and emissions of air pollution and CO₂ when controlling for population, land area, and climate.     

The North American City Revisited: Urban Quality of Life in Canada and the United States

An international comparative urban analysis requires an effort to reconcile not only the variables, but also the units of observation from each country. In a multivariate analysis, failure with regard to the former jeopardizes the validity of the results while failure with regard to the latter risks a priori bias in the interpretation of the results. This comparative, multivariate analysis of urban quality-of-life variables from Canada and the United States calls into question the distinctiveness of the Canadian City in the North American City debate because of such potential bias. As a point of departure from past research, not only is an attempt made to harmonize the set of urban quality-of-life variables with regard to definition, year, and geography, but also to control for the definitional, geographic, and hierarchical differences between the Canadian and U.S. urban systems. Such efforts reveal the Canadian City is indeed distinct from the U.S. City, but also distinct from the North American City, which is a regional entity encompassing Canada and the United States.     

Population-adjusted street connectivity,urbanicity and risk of obesity in the U.S.

Street connectivity, defined as the number of (3-way or more) intersections per area unit, is an important index of built environments as a proxy for walkability in a neighborhood. This paper examines its geographic variations across the rural-urban continuum (urbanicity), major racial-ethnic groups and various poverty levels. The population-adjusted street connectivity index is proposed as a better measure than the regular index for a large area such as county due to likely concentration of population in limited space within the large area. Based on the data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), this paper uses multilevel modeling to analyze its association with physical activity and obesity while controlling for various individual- and county-level variables. Analysis of data subsets indicates that the influences of individual and county-level variables on obesity risk vary across areas of different urbanization levels. The positive influence of street connectivity on obesity control is limited to the more but not the mostly urbanized areas. This demonstrates the value of obesogenic environment research in different geographic settings, helps us reconcile and synthesize some seemingly contradictory results reported in different studies, and also promotes that effective policies need to be highly sensitive to the diversity of demographic groups and geographically adaptable.     

Ant communities and livestock grazing in the Great Basin, U.S.A.

The objectives of this study were to determine if metrics for ant species assemblages can be used as indicators of rangeland condition, and to determine the influence of vegetation and ground cover variables, factors often influenced by livestock grazing, on ant communities. The study was conducted in two areas in the Great Basin: a sagebrush-steppe in southeastern Idaho (n=30 sites), and a salt-desert shrub in western Utah (n=27 sites). Sites were selected based on known rangeland condition (i.e. good, fair, poor) associated with livestock grazing. Ant communities differed considerably between the two study areas. Collectively, more ant species occurred at the Idaho sites (30) than at the Utah sites (21), relatively few species (eight) occurred in both areas, species richness was significantly greater at the Idaho sites (mean=12·0 species) than the Utah sites (mean=6·9 species), and Formica spp. were diverse (total of 15 species) at the Idaho sites but rare (one species) at the Utah sites. In Idaho, all species collectively, generalists, and Formica spp. were significantly less abundant on sites in poor condition than that on sites in good or fair condition, whereas in Utah, seed harvesters and Pheidole spp. were significantly more abundant on sites in poor condition than that on sites in good or fair condition. In Idaho, species richness was significantly lower on sites in poor condition. In Idaho, species richness and relative abundances of several ant groups were significantly related to bare patch size and parameters for cover or species richness of several vegetation groups. In contrast to the comparisons involving sites in poor condition, no differences in ant communities in either Idaho or Utah were evident between sites in good and fair condition. Thus, the ant communities responded only to large changes in rangeland condition and to large differences in climatic/edaphic conditions between the two areas. Hence, ant community metrics appear to have limited utility as indicators of rangeland condition in the Great Basin.     

母国集聚与产业集聚对中国企业对美直接投资区位选择的影响

本文基于2000-2014年间中国企业在美国进行直接投资的微观层面数据,运用负二项回归模型分别考察了母国集聚效应和东道国产业集聚效应对中国企业在美国进行直接投资的区位选择的影响。实证结果表明,母国集聚效应(包括母国所有企业集聚、母国同行业集聚和母国其他行业集聚)与中国企业跨国投资呈正相关,且同行业集聚效应对跨国投资的影响力度明显高于其他行业集聚效应对跨国投资的影响力度;同时,产业集聚效应与中国企业跨国投资亦呈正相关。     

特朗普政府以来的美国中东欧政策：调整、目标与展望

自“17+1合作”机制创设以来,中东欧在中欧合作中扮演的角色越来越重要。中国作为一个中东欧地区的“晚到者”,不得不面临长期以来“美、欧、俄”三方地缘博弈的影响。尤其是特朗普上任以来,一方面继承了奥巴马政府末期的中东欧政策,另一方面在能源、地缘和军事方面强化了美国的政策部署。在能源方面,美国进一步强化了将能源外交作为权力资源,平衡美欧俄关系的外交杠杆的作用。在地缘方面,波兰作为该地区的政策支轴国更加受到美国倚重。在军事方面,特朗普政府增强了在中东欧地区的军事存在和军费开支,推进驻欧美军基地的战略东移。通过对美国官方文本的文献考察发现,特朗普政府加强以上三个方面的政策部署,旨在实现以下三个政策目标：制衡俄罗斯、对欧盟分而治之和排挤中国。展望拜登政府,安全与能源仍是美国中东欧政策的首要关切。     

Estimates of Number of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold,Silver, Copper,Lead, and Zinc in the United States

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits offer a unique perspective on the nation's undiscovered mineral resources. As part of the 1998 assessment of undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc, estimates of the number of deposits were made for 305 of the 447 permissive tracts delineated in 19 assessment regions of the country. By aggregating number of undiscovered deposits by deposit type and by assessment region, a picture of the nation's undiscovered resources has emerged. For the nation as a whole, the mean estimate for the number of undiscovered deposits is 950. There is a 90% chance there are at least 747 undiscovered deposits and a 10% chance there are as many as 1,160 undiscovered deposits. For Alaska, the mean estimate for the number of undiscovered deposits is 281. There is a 90% chance there are at least 168 undiscovered deposits and a 10% chance there are as many as 402 undiscovered deposits. Assuming that the majority of deposits used to create the grade and tonnage models that formed the basis for estimating the number of undiscovered deposits are significant deposits, there remain about as many undiscovered deposits as have already been discovered. Consideration of the number of undiscovered deposits as part of national assessments carried out on a recurring basis serves as a leading indicator of the nation's total mineral resources.     

Structural Determinants of Occupational Shifts for Males and Females in the U.S. Labor Market

This paper examines the effects of structural transformation on occupational shifts for socio-demographic groups. Although services add more jobs than manufacturing, shifts in manufacturing industries continue to be a source of growth in high-order white and blue collar work for males. However, for females, these industries are significant only in determining pink collar and low-order blue collar work. Similar trends are noted for advanced producer services such as finance, insurance, and real estate. Other nonmanufacturing sectors with relatively stable product markets and strong internal labor market conditions, such as construction and transportation, continue to be significant in creating a range of jobs for males. Although males are faced with reduced opportunities following the loss of manufacturing jobs, male-female differentials prevail in the labor market; males continue to fill high-order jobs in services, and females cluster in low-order occupations and in sectors with volatile product markets.     

Structural Determinants of Occupational Shifts for Males and Females in the U.S. Labor Market

This paper examines the effects of structural transformation on occupational shifts for socio-demographic groups. Although services add more jobs than manufacturing, shifts in manufacturing industries continue to be a source of growth in high-order white and blue collar work for males. However, for females, these industries are significant only in determining pink collar and low-order blue collar work. Similar trends are noted for advanced producer services such as finance, insurance, and real estate. Other nonmanufacturing sectors with relatively stable product markets and strong internal labor market conditions, such as construction and transportation, continue to be significant in creating a range of jobs for males. Although males are faced with reduced opportunities following the loss of manufacturing jobs, male-female differentials prevail in the labor market; males continue to fill high-order jobs in services, and females cluster in low-order occupations and in sectors with volatile product markets.     

GPI理论研究及美国应用案例对我国的启示

采用GDP核算体系衡量国家和区域的发展存在明显的缺陷,真实发展指数GPI包括经济、社会和环境三个子帐户,包含了一些被GDP所忽略的成本和价值,构建了可量度的可持续发展指标体系来衡量区域经济健康程度和可持续发展能力。本文介绍了GPI的产生和组成帐户．对GPI核算框架与计算方法进行了研究,评介了美国不同区域尺度上的GPI核算应用案例,总结了GPI核算的优点与实施难点,并对在我国开展GPI核算提出了几点建议。