Estimation of Potential Risk of Reservoir-Induced Earthquake for the Proposed Hydroelectric Project on the Yangtze Gorges

The proposed hydroelectric project on the Yangtze Gorges will be one of the largest power stations in the world.The problem of induced seismicity to the project has attracted much attention throughout China and the world.A research program has been carried out by the State Seismological Bureau of China.Based on the size of the reservoir and the lithology,geological structure,permeability,stress state,and previous seismicity in the region,the potential risk of reservoir-induced seismicity has been estimated.The results suggest that,after impoundment in the reservoir area,the possibility of induced seismicity cannot be completely ruled out.The areas with potential risk may be in some gorges composed of karstified carbonate and plutonic granite around the dam site.However,the magnitude is expected to be limited owing to the small dimension of the induced seismogenic faults.     

On the siltation of the middle Yangtze River

1 Origin, process and method of the research Silt deposition created the fertile Dongting and Jianghan Plains of the middle Yangtze drainage, but has become a main cause of the deteriorating flooding along the middle Yangtze. The history of flood and waterlog of the Yangtze River in last century, esp. the disastrous 1998 flood, has proved that the key to the Yangtze flood control is its middle reach, especially the Jingjiang Segment. To study the silt deposition of the middle Yangtze and …     

Lateral Inhomogeneity of Basement Layer in Three Gorges Region of Changjiang River (Yangtze River)

Seismic tomography from the Pg wave data along the non-longitudinal profile in the Three Gorges Region is presented in this paper.The seismic tomography method,and the acquisition and analysis of seismic travel time are broadly outlined.The tomography of basement reveals a great amount of significant information and shows that the low-velocity zone is due to the lithologic difference and the fault fracture zone.It also demonstrates that there exist three high-velocity zones with v>6.4 km/s at the basement; the largest of zones which strikes north-south is located at the southwestern side of Huangling Anticlinorium and extends into the anticlinorium northward.The other two high-velocity zones are,respectively,situated at the eastern side of the anticlinorium and the western side of the profile.The high-velocity zones are inferred to originate from the upwelling of material with high-velocity from deep crust.     

Carbon isotope composition of the Lower Triassic marine carbonates, Lower Yangtze Region, South China

The Early Triassic is a critical period in earth his- tory. A series of events such as volcano eruptions[1,2], sea-level fluctuations, changes in environmental con- ditions[3], mass extinctions[4,5] as well as global negative carbon isotope excursions[6-9] have been discovered in the uppermost Permian or across the Permian-Triassic boundary. Large scale sea-level rise[10-12], restoration of environment conditions, re- covery of ecosystem[13], including gradual carbon iso- tope rise[14] occur…     

Insights into eruption dynamics from textural analysis: the case of the May, 2008, Chaitén eruption

The May, 2008, Chaitén (southern Chile) eruption was characterized by several explosive events, each associated with plumes which reached up to about 19?km above sea level on May 6. A study of the textural and physical features of the juvenile clasts erupted during the climactic phase of the 2008 eruption of Chaitén is presented. Pumice clasts show unimodal density distribution (main mode at 600?kg/m³), average vesicularity of about 69?%, a glassy groundmass with no microcrystals, and vesicles with dimension between ～1?μm and ～2?mm. They also show a unimodal vesicle size distribution with most frequent vesicle size in the range 0.05–0.08?mm and an estimated vesicle number density of 1.3?±?0.5?×?10⁵?mm^?3 related to a rapid nucleation event produced during the late phases of magma rise. This is confirmed by the absence of microcrystals that could otherwise have delayed vesicle formation and allowed the magma to maintain a low viscosity and a supersaturation in volatiles. Vesiculation and fragmentation were triggered by a sudden decompression of the melt associated with the opening of the volcanic conduit (～10?MPa?s^?1).     

Monitoring temporal–spatial variations of AOD over the Yangtze River Delta,China

Aerosol can induce visibility reduction, affect radiation balance and modify cloud property on the environmental effect, and show the harmful effects on human health. Insight of aerosol becomes an integral task in the process of control measures for environmental pollution. The present study provided an analysis of temporal–spatial variations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) using the MOD04 level-2 in collection 6 (C6) with the deep blue retrieval algorithm from January 2005 to December 2015 over Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China. The AOD validations between MODIS and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) were estimated by the methods of regression, correlation. Then, the periodic features and trends of AOD and angstrom exponent (AE) were explored with the wavelet transformation (WT) procedure. Further, the variations of AOD and AE spatial distribution on multi-time scales (annual, monthly and season) were demonstrated. Meantime, the sources of AOD are discussed. It was found that the daily AOD from MODIS has a strong correlation relationship (slope?=?0.9838, r?=?0.84) with AERONET over YRD. The variations of both AOD and AE on time series have been distinct temporal periodic (12, 6 and 4 months) characteristics, and show the decreasing trends on annual and semi-annual periods. On annual, the AOD on spatial distribution is slowly declining from the northwest towards the southeast, and the AE on spatial distribution is gradually decreasing from the northwest to the southeast and from the land to the coast. The variations both inter-annual AOD and AE on spatial distribution show the inverse trends, respectively. On monthly, the means of AOD range from minimum 0.46 in January to maximum 0.90 in July, and the variations of spatial distribution mainly occur in the north parts of Yangtze River and some scattered areas with high terrain and south coast. The means of AE range from minimum 1.13 in October to maximum 1.58 in April, and the variations of spatial distribution are mainly found in the south of Henan, the north of Jiangsu, the coast belt and the riverside of Yangtze River and the high terrain regions. On seasonality, the means of AOD reaches its maximum 0.68 in summer and minimum 0.50 in winter, and the variations of spatial distribution mainly occur in the coast belt, the north parts of Hongze Lake and the south parts with high terrain. The means of AE reaches its maximum 1.48 in spring and minimum 1.25 in autumn, and the variations of spatial distribution were shown the similarity with that of monthly.     

Socioeconomic impacts of hydropower development on the Yibin–Chongqing section,upper reaches of the Yangtze River

The aim of this paper is to quantify the socioeconomic impacts of hydropower development to reflect its positive functions from multiple perspectives and dimensions. By applying the multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to a case study of the Yibin–Chongqing section along the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the analysis shows that hydropower development has outstanding benefits for the regional economy and livelihood improvement, as proved by various indicators including consumption, investment, GDP, employment, and income. Meanwhile, application of the CGE model provides an effective way to quantitatively assess the socioeconomic impact of hydropower and other clean energy development.     

Geochemical and Pb-Sr-Nd isotopic compositions of Indosinian granitoids from the Bikou block,northwest of the Yangtze plate:Constraints on petrogenesis,nature of deep crust and geodynamics

This paper reports geochemical and Pb-Sr-Nd isotopic compositions of the Indosinian Yangba (215 Ma),Nanyili (225 Ma) and Mopi granitoids from the Bikou block of the northwestern margin of the Yangtze plate. These granitoids are enriched in Al (Al2O3:14.56%―16.48%) and Sr (352 μg/g―1047 μg/g),and depleted in Y (<16 μg/g) and HREE (e.g. Yb<1.61 μg/g),resulting in high Sr/Y (36.3―150) and (La/Yb)N (7.8―36.3) ratios and strongly fractionationed REE patterns. The Indosinian granotoids show initial Sr isotopic ratios (ISr) from 0.70419 to 70752,εNd(t) values from-3.1 to -8.5,and initial Pb isotopic ratios 206Pb/204Pb=17.891-18.250,207Pb/204Pb=15.494-15.575,and 208Pb/204Pb=37.788-38.335. Their geochemi-cal signatures indicate that the granitoids are adakitic. However,they are distinct from some adakites,generated by partial melting of subducted oceanic slab and/or underplated basaltic lower crust,be-cause they have high K (K2O: 1.49%―3.84%) and evolved Nd isotopic compositions,with older Nd iso-topic model ages (TDM=1.06―1.83 Ga). Geochemical and Sr-Nd isotopic compositions suggest that the magmas of the Insoninian adakitic rocks in the Bikou block were derived from partial melting of thick-ened basaltic lower crust. Combined with regional analyses,a lithospheric delamination model after collision between the North China and South China plates can account for the Indosinian adakitic magma generation. On the other hand,based on the Pb-Sr-Nd isotopic probing to the magma sources of the adakitic rocks,it is suggested that there is an unexposed continent-type basement under the exposed Bikou Group volcanic rocks. This can constrain on the Bikou Group volcanic rocks not to be MORB-or OIB-type.     

Analysis of the tidal gravity observations in Three Gorges reservoir area

The comparative observations of the tidal gravity in Three Gorges reservoir area, recorded with the LCR-ET20 gravimeter from Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences and the DZW-9 gravimeter from Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, are introduced. High-accuracy tidal gravity pa-rameters in this area are obtained, and the scale factor of the DZW-9 gravimeter is also estimated at a value of ?(756.06±0.05)×10?8 m?s?2V?1. The observed residuals of the corresponding instruments are investigated. Nu-merical results indicate that the long-term drift of the DZW-9 gravimeter appears a linear characteristic, and the observed accuracy is of the same order comparing with that of the LCR-ET20 gravimeter. The results given in the paper can provide with an effective reference model of the tidal gravity correction to the ground based and space geodesy.     

Underplating in the middle-lower Yangtze Valley and model of geodynamic evolution:Constraints from geophysical data

~~Underplating in the middle-lower Yangtze Valley and model of geodynamic evolution:Constraints from geophysical data1)East China petroleum Administration,1988(unpublished data). 1)Measurements of regional rock densities and magnetic parameters of Anhui Province(research report),Annul Geological and Mineral Bureau,1987(unpublished). 1)In this paper South China Block(SCB)includes the Yangtze block and Cathaysian block.In the Neoproterozoic the Yangtze block had been sutured to th…     

La méthode SHYREG débit—application sur 1605 bassins versants en France métropolitaine

Résumé

La méthode SHYREG est une approche développée pour la connaissance régionale de l’aléa pluvial (SHYREG pluie) et hydrologique (SHYREG débit) en tout point du territoire français. Elle est basée sur le couplage d’un générateur stochastique de pluie horaire et d’un modèle hydrologique. Cet article présente les résultats de la mise en ?uvre de la méthode sur 1605 bassins versants répartis sur la France métropolitaine. Sur les fréquences courantes (c.à.d. périodes de retour inférieures à 10 ans), la méthode restitue correctement les quantiles de débit de crue ajustés à une loi statistique sur les observations (loi GEV, selon le critère de Nash-Sutcliffe). Plusieurs critères sont utilisés pour valider l’extrapolation des débits à des fréquences extrêmes: (a) en la confrontant à de longues chroniques de débits observés, (b) en analysant dans le modèle hydrologique la saturation du réservoir de production synonyme de comportement asymptotique avec les pluies, et (c) en étudiant la stabilité de la méthode à travers les critères statistiques.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Editeur associé G. Mahé

Citation Aubert, Y., Arnaud, P., Ribstein, P., et Fine, J.-A., 2014. La méthode SHYREG débit, application sur 1605 bassins versants en France Métropolitaine. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 993–1005.     

Denitrification in Chongming east tidal flat sediment, Yangtze estuary, China

From July 2003 to July 2004, samples were collected on Chongming Island east tidal flat every two months. The research showed that the nitrous oxide (N2O) production rate was very low in the water, Chongming east tidal flat (CM) sediment was the N2O source of the water. Sediment N2O natural production rate was between -0.08 and 1.74 μmolN·m-2·h-1. N2O natural production rate was higher in the summer. The difference of the N2O natural production rate in the different tidal flats, the correlation between the N2O natural production rate and the denitrification rate, and those with the temperature and DO indicate that middle tidal flat sediment denitrification was the main process of the N2O production, while in the low tidal flat sediment, the production of the N2O came from several processes of the nitrogen cycling. Tidal flat sediment denitrification reaction was stronger in summer and winter but relatively lower in the late autumn and early spring. Seasonal change of the sediment denitrification rate was wide, from 1.12 to 33.34 μmolN·m-2·h-1. Temperature, DO and the coactions of them had the prominent effect on the tidal flat sediment denitrification.     

Development and application of the monent-ratio imaging algorithm

In the moment-ratio imaging algorithm, which is based on the theory of healing of a wound, the energy of each strong earthquake is distributed around the epicenter according to certain rules, and the features of the Moment-ratio value R are analyzed as the space and time change, so that the relationships between the moment-ration value R and strong earthquakes can be found. In the present paper, regions divided, hypocenter depths and events completed magnitude analyses were carried out in the Chinese catalogue. By applying the moment-ratio imaging algorithm in which the parameters are adjusted, the processes of anomaly evolution which correspond to the epicenter and the surrounding value R before earthquakes of M≥7.0 since 1966 in different areas of China were analyzed. It was found that the range area and imminent time of a coming earthquake could be confirmed quantita- tively by analyzing the abnormal temporal and spatial variation of the value R The results showed that the temporal and spatial variation of the value R could quantitatively reflect the temporal and spatial factors of a coming strong earthquake as well as the rule of medium rupture.     

Development and application of the mo-ment-ratio imaging algorithm

Introduction After an earthquake occurs, the regional stress field will be adjusted, the stress state in the epicenter area is relatively weak and the loaded stress at the crustal medium in the surrounding area will relatively increase due to the energy release of the crustal rupture. When several small and medium earthquakes occur, one or several new stress-concentrated areas will appear due to the effect of every event. The comprehensive effect could be related to the time, space and magni-t…     

Seismic Anisotropy Observations in the Mexicali Valley,Baja California,México

A study of seismic anisotropy was performed using data from earthquakes of the Mexicali Valley. The investigated region encompasses the Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field (CPGF), one of the most important fields in the world. The results showed that at most of our stations the average polarization directions of the fast S waves range from N14°W to N17°E. A N-S polarization direction was obtained for the whole area by averaging the polarization directions from all stations used. In terms of the EDA hypothesis, this average trend agrees with the postulated state of stress for southern California, and with fault plane solutions for events of the Mexicali Valley. Notorious deviations from the N-S global trend were found southeast of the CPGF, with polarization trends between N25°E and N67°E, and in the geothermal field, with polarization directions between N7°W and N14°W. The polarization results for these zones indicated stress conditions that are different from the more regional stress pattern. The delay times that were measured between the fast and slow shear waves reached values of up to 0.6 sec, with a mean value of 0.35 sec. Consistent with our polarization results, the larger delay times (0.2–0.6 sec) were found in the CPGF. Smaller or null values were observed at the periphery of the study area. No temporal trends in the delay times were apparent, as shown by data from the two stations that recorded the larger number of events. Overall, we conclude that the splitting effects of this study result from a shallow anisotropy volume. The splitting results are thus interpreted as caused by the preferred orientation of vertical fluid-filled microcracks aligned in a direction that is parallel to the regional stress field. The stronger splitting effects that were observed in the area of the CPGF were found consistent with the geothermal reservoir that is embedded in the sedimentary cover of the zone, at depths of 1 to 4–5 km from the surface. We thus believe that such marked splitting effects have a direct relation with the reservoir of the CPGF.We are grateful to Miguel Navarro, Tito Valdez, and Manuel Luna for their contribution in the operation of RANM and for processing and cataloguing the strong-motion data. Ignacio Méndez and Francisco Farfán helped us with data from the RESNOM system. The study benefited from funding provided by CICESE and from grants awarded by CONACYT to Luis Munguía (Grants F195T and PCCNCNA-031339).     

Comparative evaluation of statistical tests for time series analysis: application to hydrological time series / Evaluation comparative de tests statistiques pour l'analyse de séries temporelles: application à des séries temporelles hydrologiques

Abstract

Statistical analyses of hydrological time series play a vital role in water resources studies. Twenty-nine statistical tests for detecting time series characteristics were evaluated by applying them to analyse 46 years of annual rainfall, 47 years of 1-day maximum rainfall and consecutive 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfalls at Kharagpur, West Bengal, India. The performance of all the tests was evaluated. No severe outliers were found, and both the annual and maximum rainfall series were found to be normally distributed. Based on the known physical parameters affecting the homogeneity, the cumulative deviations and the Bayesian tests were found to be superior to the classical von Neumann test. Similarly, the Tukey test proved excellent among all the multiple comparison tests. These tests indicated that all the seven rainfall series are homogeneous. Two parametric t tests and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test indicated stationarity in all the rainfall series. Of 12 trend detection tests, nine tests indicated no trends in the rainfall series. The Kendall's Rank Correlation test and the Mann-Kendall test were found equally powerful. Moreover, the Fourier series analysis revealed no apparent periodicities in all the seven rainfall series. The annual rainfall series was found persistent with a time lag of nine years. All the rainfall series were subjected to stochastic analysis by fitting 35 autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models of different orders. The best-fit models for the original annual rainfall and 1-, 2- and 3-day maximum rainfall series were found to be ARMA(0,4), ARMA(0,2), ARMA(0,2) and ARMA(3,0), respectively. The best-fit model for the logarithmically transformed 4-day maximum rainfall was found to be ARMA(0,2). However, for the inversely transformed 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfall series, ARMA(0,1) was obtained as the best-fit model. It is concluded that proper selection of time series tests and use of several tests is indispensable for making useful and reliable decisions.     

Bacteriological water quality along the Tijuana-Ensenada, Baja California, México shoreline

This survey was part of a Binational Program (Mexico-United States) in microbiological water quality, with a goal to assess the shoreline bacteriological water quality from Tijuana to Ensenada, Mexico. Samples were collected at 29 sites (19 beaches and 10 outfalls), from the United States border to Punta Banda, Baja California, during summer (1998) and winter (1999). Total coliforms, fecal coliforms and enterococci were used as bacterial indicators. Standard methods were used for total and fecal coliforms, while the Enterolert quick method (IDEXX) was used for the enterococci. Compared with outfalls, the beaches exceeded water quality standards by a small percent, 25.3% in summer and 17% in winter. For outfalls, the percentage of shoreline that exceeded bacterial indicator thresholds had a minor value in summer (32.7%) than in winter (50%). Sites near wastewater discharges had the lowest quality and did not meet the microbiological water quality criteria for recreational use.