中国城市住宅价格的空间分异格局及影响因素

分别研究2009年中国286个地级以上城市住宅均价和房价收入比的空间分异格局、总体趋势、空间异质性和相关性;根据供需理论和城市特征价格理论建立了影响中国城市住宅价格空间分异的初选因素,并根据半对数模型分析主要影响因素。结果表明：① 中国城市住宅价格空间分异显著,呈现出空间集聚性分异（东南沿海三大城市群与内陆城市之间）和行政等级性分异（省会与地级市之间）的双重格局;② 房价收入比较高的城市数量更多,分布范围更广,购房难度较大的城市已超过一半;③ 住宅均价的总体分异趋势和空间异质性都强于房价收入比;④ 城市居民收入与财富水平和城市区位与行政等级特征是住宅价格空间分异的两大核心影响因素。     

北京市房价与地价的动态关系——基于结构方程模型的实证分析

城市房价与地价之间的关系错综复杂,不仅受多种因素的交织影响,相互之间也存在动态关系。研究房价与地价关系的传统方法,如Granger因果检验和回归分析等,无法刻画房价与地价之间多维的网络状关系,相比之下,结构方程模型能同时处理多个内生潜变量,且不受观测指标共线性的影响,为刻画地价与房价的交互作用提供了新的工具。从住房与土地市场的供需传导机制出发,推导出房价与地价的结构模型,以北京市为例,运用2003-2013年居住用地价格和2014年在售楼盘价格,与北京市GIS电子地图相匹配,提取商服中心可达性、公共交通可达性、道路可达性、商服繁华度、设施便利性等解释变量,构建地价与房价结构方程模型,分析二者之间的结构关系。     

Effects of accessibility and environmental health risk on housing prices: a case of Salt Lake County,Utah

While transportation infrastructure can increase housing price by improving accessibility to opportunities, it generates environmental health risks, such as noise and air pollution, which may have negative effects on housing price. However, the combined effects of accessibility and environmental health risk on housing price have not been well examined in the literature, especially in the auto-oriented urban context of the United States. In this study, we use assessed housing value data and the hedonic model to examine the single-family housing market's reaction to accessibility and environment health risks in Salt Lake County, a growing metropolitan area in Utah experiencing significant air pollution. Three regression models are employed with the consideration of spatial effects: ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial lag regression (SLR), and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM, or multilevel modeling/MLM). By controlling for the influences of structural attributes and socioeconomic conditions, we find that the negative impacts (traffic noise and air pollution) of transportation systems on single-family housing prices are greater than the positive impact (accessibility). Single-family residents in Salt Lake County are willing to pay more to reduce environmental health risks than to get better accessibility. These findings are different from what have been found in some dense and compact urban areas in the literature. These findings suggest that people's willingness to pay for minimizing environmental health risks varies across different urban contexts.     

交互作用视角下人口流动性与住房类型对城市入室盗窃空间格局的影响

已有研究发现社区住房类型对城市入室盗窃的空间格局有重要影响,但鲜有学者探讨位于不同人口流动程度社区环境中的不同住房对入室盗窃影响的差异。本研究以中国东南沿海城市ZG市为例,基于日常活动和社会失序等理论,以社区为分析单元,利用入室盗窃警情数据、第六次人口普查数据和兴趣点数据（Point of Interest, POI）,运用空间滞后负二项回归方法,分析人口流动性与住房类型的交互作用对入室盗窃空间格局的影响。结果表明：人口流动性高的社区入室盗窃率较高;自建住房比例对入室盗窃率有显著的正向影响,原公有住房比例和商品房比例则呈显著的抑制作用;交互变量的结果发现,人口流动性与不同类型住房变量的交互作用存在差异,其中,人口流动性与自建住房、经济适用房、原公有住房的交互变量对入室盗窃的发生具有显著的促进作用,而与商品房的交互对入室盗窃的影响并不显著。说明在探讨不同类型住房与入室盗窃的关系时,应重视其所在社区的人口流动程度的影响。     

Patterns and Meanings of Housing: Residential Mobility and Homeownership among Former Refugees

Abstract

This article explores the patterns of residential mobility and homeownership, and in particular the meanings that former refugees attach to housing and neighborhood. While there are numerous studies on housing among voluntary migrants, studies that focus exclusively on refugees are rare. This multi-method study is based on interviews and a questionnaire survey with participants from Burma and the African Great Lakes Region in Buffalo, New York, who had arrived in the United States since 1995. Residential mobility patterns and meanings of housing indicate substantial differences between households in the two groups. The central argument of the paper is that the patterns and the meanings of housing are shaped by: (1) current socio-economic characteristics and resources, including educational attainment, employment status, and income; (2) current housing market conditions, including housing prices and racial discrimination; and (3) pre-migration experiences, including socio-economic status, socialization, and the corresponding internalized structures of meanings with respect to residential and housing patterns.     

南京市住房困难人群职住关系及影响因素分析

居住和就业的空间关系,既是城市居民日常生活的空间反映,也是评判城市空间合理性的重要准则。新就业大学生(取得专科及以上学历且工作未满3 a,在南京无自有住房且租房居住)、外来务工人员(收入低于2016年南京市人均可支配收入4166元/月,在南京无自有住房且租房居住)和中低收入人群(南京户籍,家庭人均可支配收入低于3074元/月,人均住房面积不大于20 m ²)等住房困难人群,普遍面临住房机会不平等的问题,职住关系也呈现出特殊性。论文基于南京市这3类住房困难人群的873份问卷数据,采用两步聚类法对通勤流向模式进行划分,基于多项Logistic回归模型探究通勤时间和通勤方式的影响因素,并以南京鼓楼区为案例解析住房困难人群的职住关系。结果表明：新就业大学生通勤流向主要为内部通勤,通勤时间最短,职住关系受通勤流向和工作单位影响;外来务工人员通勤流向主要为侧向通勤,通勤方式机动化程度最低,职住关系受通勤流向、工作单位和性别显著影响;中低收入人群通勤流向主要为侧向通勤,职住分离程度最高,职住关系主要受到住房类型的显著影响。以鼓楼区为例,论文进一步发现新就业大学生以交通条件为导向、外来务工人员以工作地为导向和中低收入人群以居住地为导向的职住关系。     

产业与地形因素影响下的山地城市职住空间关系——以重庆市主城九区为例

选择重庆主城九区作为典型案例,基于百度慧眼识别的就业人口与居住人口数据,通过测算就业－居住偏离度指数分析其人口分布特征与职住空间关系,划分就业主导区、基本匹配区与居住主导区。并基于全国第四次经济普查数据,在对产业进行综合因子分析基础上,定量化识别产业综合因子和地形因子对重庆主城九区职住空间匹配性影响。结果表明：1）重庆市主城区的就业与居住人口空间分布趋势具有一致性特征,整体上呈现“中间高、四周低”的特征;2）重庆市主城区的职住空间基本平衡,街道尺度上职住偏离特征不显著,但城市多组团的中心地区职住空间匹配特征稍有差异,呈现主中心（解放碑）职住平衡度低、4个副中心职住平衡度高的格局;3）空间回归模型表明,综合性服务产业因子和生产性服务产业因子强化了职住分离程度,社会性服务产业因子、制造业因子和地形起伏度降低了职住空间差异。总体上,产业布局与地形地貌是重庆主城区职住空间关系的重要影响因素,二者与政府规划、交通条件和居民生活相互补充、共同作用,塑造了重庆主城现今协调发展的就业－居住空间格局。     

空间功能视角下的公共服务对房价的影响——以成都市为例

房价的快速上涨和城市内部房价的巨大差异引起社会广泛关注,调控房价,防止局部区域房价过热势在必行。本文从城市空间功能的视角出发,以成都市2016年房价为例,基于地理探测器分析公共服务对房价的影响。结果表明：成都平均房价为8480元/m²,并从市中心沿交通环线和放射状干线同时向郊区递减,形成圈层加放射格局,总体上呈现西高东低、南高北低的特点。公共服务(主要包括医疗、金融和教育服务)对房价的影响以第三圈层和西南方最为显著,且高于城市层面上整体的影响。公共服务对房价的影响显著受不同区域的空间功能差异的影响,公共服务和空间功能差异会加剧房价的分异格局,并推动局部房价过热。因此,显著地受到在房价调控中,不仅要有传统的金融、经济政策,还要注重空间功能和公共服务的优化。     

扬州市住宅价格空间分异的影响因素与驱动机制

构建包含20个评价因子、4 个影响因素和4 个预期修正因素在内的城市住宅价格空间分异影响因素评价体系,基于评价因子和预期修正,分别得出单户住宅档次与水平、小区建设档次与水平、区位与生活便利性、周边景观与环境等4 个影响因素强度的得分,并分析其空间分异格局。以2012 年扬州市1305 个小区的平均住宅单价为因变量,4 个基本影响因素得分为自变量,进行回归分析,探索所有住宅及各子市场价格分异的主要因素,并分析其驱动机制。结果表明：① 4 个影响因素强度格局明显不同,住宅自身因素的格局呈现中心低外围高的圈层式分异,而外部作用因素强度呈现中心高外围低、西高东低的扇型与圈层相结合式空间分异格局;② 扬州市总体住宅价格空间分异的核心影响因素是小区建设档次与水平,不同类型住宅子市场的价格影响因素各不相同;③ 扬州市住宅价格空间分异的主要驱动力是特定住宅类型与档次建设的区位指向、特定收入阶层的空间集聚、公共物品投资的空间差异、城市居住用地扩展与城市更新的区位指向。     

重庆市公共租赁住房社区居民的职住空间匹配

居住与就业间的空间组织是城市空间结构的重要组成要素之一,国外自20 世纪60 年代提出后引发了大量关于弱势群体居住和就业空间机会及其关系的实证研究。近年来在中国城市快速空间重构的背景下,中低收入群体的职住分离现象也引起广泛关注。运用职住空间错位理论,以重庆市主城区公共租赁住房社区为案例进行研究,对541 份有效问卷的统计分析表明:① 公共租赁住房居民搬迁前通勤距离与通勤时间的均值分别从6.5 km与32 min,增加到搬迁后的15 km与52 min;② Logit回归分析表明,群体类型对公共租赁住房居民通勤时间差异影响最为显著,年龄与居民通勤时间呈负相关关系,性别与年龄对通勤时间产生较显著影响。③ 公共租赁住房供应的政策性因素造成了被动迁移型空间不匹配现象,是其住户的区位选择与主要就业场所不匹配而引发的,因此需要深入研究公共租赁住房合理的空间布局方案和实施途径,尽可能将公共租赁住房区位规划在内城。     

Effect of land prices on the spatial differentiation of housing prices: Evidence from cross-county analyses in China

This study analyzes the spatial patterns and driving forces of housing prices in China using a 2,872-county dataset of housing prices in 2014. Multiple theoretical perspectives on housing demand, supply, and market, are combined to establish a housing price model to explore the impact of land prices on housing prices. The relative impacts of land prices on housing prices at different administrative levels are then analyzed using the geographical detector technique. Finally, the influencing mechanism of land prices on housing prices is discussed. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Housing prices have a pyramid- ranked distribution in China, where higher housing prices are linked to smaller urban populations. (2) Land prices are the primary driver of housing prices, and their impacts on housing prices vary over different administrative levels. To be specific, the effect of land prices is the strongest in the urban districts of provincial capital cities. (3) The internal influence mechanisms for land prices driving housing prices are: topographic factors, urban construction level, the agglomeration degree of high-quality public service resources, and the tertiary industrial development level. The urban land supply plan (supply policies) is the intrinsic driver that determines land prices in cities; through supply and demand, cost, and market mechanisms, land prices then impact housing prices.     

北京经济适用房布局特征及影响因素研究

20 世纪90 年代,中国开始实施经济适用住房政策。然而,在政策的实施过程中,由于不合理的布局,经济适用住房并没有切实解决中低收入家庭的住房问题。学者们通过研究发现,大多数经济适用住房被安排在城市边缘地区,缺乏配套公共设施。目前,相关研究较多关注经济适用住房的空间布局及其引发的社会问题,少有学者关注影响经济适用住房布局的因素。因此,本文试图从地方政府的视角解答影响经济适用住房布局的因素。研究提出假设,地方政府受到土地财政收入的驱动,将经济适用住房项目布置在对土地收益损失最小的地方,同时兼顾政策实施过程中的拆迁压力、住房市场结构以及公共交通便利性等。在假设基础上,对北京经济适用住房空间布局的时空特征进行分析,并构建经济适用住房布局的影响因素模型。结果发现：1999-2009 年间北京经济适用住房建设速度放慢,同时呈现向五环以外扩散及向某些点集聚的趋势;模型结果证实土地价格是政府在落实经济适用住房项目时考虑的重要因素。     

广州市家庭收入与住房特征对应关系的区位差异性

以广州市中心区(天河区)和郊区(南沙区)为研究案例,依托2010年中国(广东)家庭动态跟踪调查数据,基于家庭户住房的邻里特征、建筑特征、区位特征、家庭收入等13个指标构建路径分析模型,研究广州市居民家庭收入与住房特征的映射关系和影响方向。在此基础上,采用多群组路径分析方法研究区位因素对“收入→住房特征”的影响程度及其差异性。最后利用方差方程和均值方程,分析不同区位条件下(中心区和郊区)的住房特征差异。结果表明：① 家庭收入更显著地决定住房特征,对邻里特征的影响并不显著;② 区位对“收入→住房邻里特征”的关系具有显著调节作用,而对“收入→住房建筑特征”的调节作用较弱;③ 在中心城区和郊区的内部,家庭收入更显著地影响住房建筑特征,而对邻里特征基本无显著影响;④ 郊区家庭收入对公共交通时间便利性、住房面积、厕所设施水平、拥有住房数量、住房综合条件等几个主要住房特征指标的影响程度大于中心城区;⑤ 中心城区住房的邻里特征明显优于郊区,但建筑特征明显差于郊区。显示出广州市住房邻里特征与建筑特征在不同区位条件下的“互换特征”。     

北京市住房价格和租金的空间分异与相互关系

当前中国住房销售市场、住房租赁市场发展不平衡,研究住房价格、租金的空间分异与相互关系,对建立“租售并举”的住房制度具有重要参考价值。利用2016年北京市各住宅小区的住房价格、租金数据,及2006—2016年北京市逐月住房销售价格指数、住房租赁价格指数,从时空尺度剖析了住房价格、租金的空间分异与相互关系,并剖析了背后的差异机制。结果表明：① 北京市住房价格和租金的空间格局均呈多中心圈层递减结构,且南北差异明显,但租金的空间分异程度弱于住房价格。② 住房价格具有中等程度的空间相关性,受政策等随机性因素影响相对较大,而租金具有强烈的空间相关性,受区位交通等确定性因素影响相对较大。③ 住房价格和租金的价格剖面线并不相同,住房价格易受学区、大型公园等的影响,而租金更易受就业所在地、建筑年龄等的影响。售租比呈混乱斑驳、相对均质的扁平化分布特征,且小区越高档,售租比越高。④ 北京市住房销售市场和住房租赁市场基本相对独立发展,更符合双重市场的特征。产生上述差异的主要原因在于住房销售市场和住房租赁市场的市场特征、服务人群以及市场发育程度不同。     

The Housing Market and Population Vulnerabilities: Perceptions in a Fordist and a Post‐Fordist Context

Drawing on qualitative interviews and participatory urban‐appraisal tools, this paper analyzes household perceptions on the five elements of Lawrence and Su‐Yeul's market‐led pluralism (M‐LP) framework (2008). It uses post‐Fordist Columbus, Ohio, and Fordist Milwaukee, Wisconsin, as testing grounds for these household perspectives. M‐LP suggests that at the center of contemporary housing market lie five elements: developers/builders who unveil new urban spaces with culturally open communities; lending agencies that offer affordable mortgages to all; real estate brokers/agents who have moved past discriminatory practices; consumers whose preferences emphasize class‐type elements; and communities that impose development agendas. While many felt that the housing market of the mid‐2000s was racially blind, race still played a crucial role in driving home‐buying decisions, especially in Milwaukee. Columbus respondents aligned more closely with M‐LP, putting greater emphasis on class, but they also used phrases and words to blur race and class distinction. Both metropolises, though, illustrated complex intertwining between class and culture.     

土地价格对住房价格空间分异的影响——基于中国县域单元的实证分析（英文）

This study analyzes the spatial patterns and driving forces of housing prices in China using a 2,872-county dataset of housing prices in 2014.Multiple theoretical perspectives on housing demand,supply,and market,are combined to establish a housing price model to explore the impact of land prices on housing prices.The relative impacts of land prices on housing prices at different administrative levels are then analyzed using the geographical detector technique.Finally,the influencing mechanism of land prices on housing prices is discussed.The main conclusions are as follows.(1) Housing prices have a pyramid-ranked distribution in China,where higher housing prices are linked to smaller urban populations.(2) Land prices are the primary driver of housing prices,and their impacts on housing prices vary over different administrative levels.To be specific,the effect of land prices is the strongest in the urban districts of provincial capital cities.(3) The internal influence mechanisms for land prices driving housing prices are:topographic factors,urban construction level,the agglomeration degree of high-quality public service resources,and the tertiary industrial development level.The urban land supply plan(supply policies) is the intrinsic driver that determines land prices in cities;through supply and demand,cost,and market mechanisms,land prices then impact housing prices.     

西宁市居民就职差异性及其空间演变——基于4种类型单位居住区的比较

为掌握单位居住区职住关系,采用问卷调查法和GIS空间分析方法对西宁市的4个单位居住区的510户居民进行基本通勤特征的问卷调查,分析就职单位空间密度分布,揭示西宁市不同单位类型居民的就职空间演变。结果表明:传统的、重组的、破产的和易地搬迁等多种类型的单位居住区共存,西宁市单位居住区就职空间发生了显著的空间分化,单位居住区就业空间演变受到居住区聚集度增加、居住区功能独立化、居民来源多样化、离城市商服中心的距离和单位运营结构稳定性等因素的影响,居住空间趋向于规模化和聚集化,就业空间由高聚集的单中心向多中心演变,职住分离显著。     

The Social Geography of Childhood Mortality,Toronto, 1901

Urban geographers and historians have long recognized the relationship between cities and poor health, though few have documented this relationship for cities in the past. While trends, and national or regional variations, of mortality rates are well documented for Britain and Europe, the picture is less complete for North America. Through the use of household data aggregated to the neighborhood scale, this paper explores the spatial variation of childhood mortality (deaths under the age of five) in relation to the social geography of Toronto, Canada, in 1901. Examination of individual records illustrate that the traditional dichotomous relationship between suburban and inner-city areas, in terms of health status (mortality), did not exist in turn of the 20th century Toronto. Rather, inner-city slums and suburban fringe areas were found to be equally likely to have high levels of childhood mortality. Furthermore, the neighborhood spatial patterns of childhood mortality were more affected by the residential segregation of religious groups (e.g., Catholics and Jews) than the distribution of households by social class or the housing conditions in which the people lived.     

住房成本与通勤成本的空间互动关系——来自北京市场的微观证据及其宏观含义

住房成本和通勤成本是城市空间结构中两个相互关联的内生变量。居民在进行居住区位 选择时, 会在这两者之间进行权衡, 从而形成住房价格、建筑密度和通勤行为在空间上的变化规 律。本文回顾了通勤成本和住房成本间的理论均衡关系, 探讨了各种现实情况是如何影响这个理 论关系的; 并利用大规模调研所采集的北京市微观个体数据, 提供了这一互动关系的一些定量证 据; 最后从两个角度探讨了这种互动关系在城市管理的公共政策方面的宏观含义: 考虑通勤成本 后的住房支付能力评价, 以及就业与居住过度分离的社会效果分析。     

Public housing as a barrier to long-distance migration

The relationship between migration and housing tenure in Britain is explored, with particular reference to those living in subsidized housing provided by local councils. "In this study, data have been extracted from the 1991 Sample of Anonymised Records to assess the impacts of tenure on long-distance migration compared with short-distance migration. Logit models are used to control for the effects of a wide range of socio-economic variables, allowing the independent impact of tenure to be identified. It is shown that long-distance migrants are less likely to move into council housing than other tenures, but it is argued that this does not support the assumption that the sale of council housing will necessarily increase labour mobility."