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1.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):899-908
Abstract

The SWAT model was used to investigate the impact of land-cover changes on the runoff of the River Nzoia catchment, Kenya. The model was calibrated against measured daily discharge, and land-cover changes were examined through classification of satellite images. Land-cover change scenarios were generated, namely the worst- and best-case scenarios. Historical land-cover change results showed that agricultural area increased from 39.6 to 64.3% between 1973 and 2001, while forest cover decreased from 12.3 to 7.0%. A comparison between 1970–1975 and 1980–1985 showed that land-cover changes accounted for a difference in surface runoff ranging from 55 to 68% between the two time periods. The land-cover scenarios used showed the magnitude of changes in runoff due to changes in the land covers considered. Compared to the 1980–1985 runoff, the land-cover scenarios generated changes in runoff of about ?16% and 30% for the best and worst case scenarios respectively.  相似文献   

2.
Pyroclastic flow deposits of the 1991 eruption of Volcán de Colima,Mexico   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
The April 16, 1991, eruption of Volcán de Colima represents a classical example of partial dome collapse with the generation of progressively longer-runout, Merapi-type pyroclastic flows that traveled up to 4 km along the El Cordoban gullies (East, Central and West). The flows filled the gullies with block-and-ash flow deposits up to 10 m thick, of which, after 7 years of erosion, only remnants remained in the El Cordoban West and East gullies. The El Cordoban Central gully, however, provided a well-preserved and incised longitudinal section of the 1991 deposits. The deposits were emplaced as proximal and distal facies, separated by a change in slope angle from >30° to <20°. The proximal facies consists of massive, clast-supported flow units (up to 1 m thick) with andesite blocks locally supported by a matrix of coarse ash and devoid of segregation structures or grading. The distal facies consists of a massive, matrix-supported deposit up to 8 m thick, which contains dispersed andesite blocks in a fine ash matrix. In the distal facies, a train of blocks marks flow-unit upper boundaries and, although sorting is poor, some grading is present. Thin, finely stratified, or dune-bedded layers of fine ash material are locally present above or below units of both facies. Sedimentologic parameters show that the size or fraction of large pyroclasts (larger than –1 ) decreases from proximal to distal facies, as the percentage of matrix (0 to 4 ) increases, especially immediately beyond the break in slope. We propose that the propagation of the Colima pyroclastic flows is critically dependent on local slope angle, the presence of erodible slope debris, and the decrease in grain size with distance from the vent. The progressive fining is probably caused by some combination of erosion, clast breakup and deposition of larger pyroclasts, and is itself influenced by the slope angle. In the proximal region, the flows moved as granular avalanches, in which interacting grains ground each other and erosion occurred to produce an overriding dilute ash cloud. The maximum runout distance of the avalanches was controlled by the angle of repose of the material, and the volume and grain size of source and eroded material. Because the slope angle is close to the repose angle for this debris, granular avalanches were not able to propagate far beyond the change in slope. If, however, an avalanche had enough mass in finer grain size fractions, at least part of the flow continued beyond the break in slope and across the volcano apron, propagating in a turbulent state and depositing surge layers, or in an otherwise settling-modified state and depositing block-and-ash flow layers.Editorial responsibility: T Druitt  相似文献   

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5.
The coast in the state of Jalisco and south of Nayarit is located within a region of high seismic potential, increasing population, and tourism development. This motivated Civil Defense authorities of Jalisco and the Universidad de Guadalajara to launch in the year 2000 the assessment of the seismic risk of the region. This work focuses in the seismicity study of the area of Bahía de Banderas and northern coast of Jalisco, which is actually a seismic gap. We perform an analysis of available seismograms to characterize active crustal structures, their relationship to surface morphology, and possible extent of these structures into the bay shallow parts. The data consist of waveforms recorded during 2003 when the seismograph network spanned the region. Our method is based on the identification of seismic clusters or families using cross-correlation of waveforms, earthquake relocation and modeling of fault planes. From an initial data set of 404 located earthquakes, 96 earthquakes with ML < 3.6 are related to 17 potentially active continental structures. We present fault plane model for 11 structures. A subgroup of 7 structures is aligned parallel to the Middle America Trench, as a possible consequence of oblique subduction. The foci of the earthquakes were grouped into clusters corresponding to fault dimensions of hundred of meters, may be considered as asperities or barriers in tectonic structures with lengths between 10 and 30 km. These structures could generate shallow earthquakes with magnitudes between 5.0 and 6.0 and represent an additional seismic threat to the region.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

Equatorial rivers of East Africa exhibit unusually complex seasonal and inter-annual flow regimes, and aquatic and adjacent terrestrial organisms have adapted to cope with this flow variability. This study examined the annual flow regime over the past 40 years for three gauging stations on the Mara River in Kenya and Tanzania, which is of international importance because it is the only perennial river traversing the Mara-Serengeti ecoregion. Select environmental flow components were quantified and converted to ecologically relevant hydraulic variables. Vegetation, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected and identified at target study sites during low and high flows. The results were compared with available knowledge of the life histories and flow sensitivities of the riverine communities to infer flow–ecology relationships. Management implications are discussed, including the need to preserve a dynamic environmental flow regime to protect ecosystems in the region. The results for the Mara may serve as a useful model for river basins of the wider equatorial East Africa region.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman  相似文献   

7.
Résumé Nous appliquons dans ce mémoire la théorie des perturbations, développée antérieuremet par l'un de nous, à la déduction des principales caractéristiques normales des perturbations compatibles avec un champ moyen donné de pression et de température. Cette deduction comprend la détermination: 1) de la configuration moyenne des perturbations dans les différentes régions étudiées; 2) des zones de creusement et de comblement et en particulier des foyers de formation et de disparition des perturbations; 3) des trajectoires, vitesses, fréquences et amplitudes moyennes des perturbations. C'est à l'ensemble de ces propriétés moyennes que nous donnons le nom de «climatologie dynamique» d'une période donnée.Après une première partie théorique, nous donnons des exemples d'application des résultats généraux à la climatologie dynamique des mois de Janvier et de Juillet pour l'Amérique du Nord, l'Atlantique Nord et l'Europe.
Summary In this paper we apply the theory of perturbations, previously developed by one of us, to the deduction of the main normal characteristics of the perturbations that are compatible with a given mean field of pressure and temperature. This deduction comprises the determination: 1) of the mean configuration of the perturbations for the different regions under examination; 2) of the normal deepening and filling regions of the perturbations, and particularly their formation and vanishing focuses; 3) of the mean paths, speeds, frequencies and amplitudes of the perturbations. The «dynamical climatology» we are contemplating here is concerned with all these mean properties of the perturbations for a given period.After a first theoretical part, we give some examples of the application of the general results to the dynamical climatology of January and July for North America, North Atlantic and Europe.


à ce mémoire a été assigné le Prix 1956 de la « Società Italiana di Geofisica e Meteorologia ».  相似文献   

8.
The Galería de las Estatuas is a Mousterian site located within the Cueva Mayor-Cueva del Silo karstic system at the Sierra de Atapuerca (Burgos, Spain). This site is characterised by an important Upper Pleistocene stratigraphic sequence in which a large number of lithic artefacts exhibiting clear Mousterian affinities and a rich assemblage of faunal remains have been found.Additionally, this site has yielded a foot phalanx of a clear Neanderthal affinities and its sediment has yielded Neanderthal mitochondrial and nuclear DNA.Two test pits, GE-I and GE-II, have been excavated since 2008 which have been divided in 5 and 2 lithostratigraphical units, respectively. A minimum age of 45 ka cal BP for this site was obtained by radiocarbon dating in GE-II. This chronology was refined using single-grain Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL: 80–112 ka in GE-I and 70–79 ka in GE-II) and single-grain thermally transferred OSL (TT-OSL). Although in all case TT-OSL ages were systematically older than their single-grain counterparts. The detrital sequence is sealed by a flowstone whose base is dated to 53.7 ± 3.5 ka cal BP using U-series dating.In order to better constrain the age of this site, nine herbivorous teeth were collected from the whole sedimentary sequence to be dated by the ESR/U-series dating method though only seven provided modelled ages. Six of them were collected from levels 2 to 5 of the GE-I test pit while the last tooth was taken from level 2 of the GE-II test pit. Our results, ranging between 80 and 110 ka, are in agreement with those obtained by single grain TT-OSL and suggest that the sedimentological levels containing Mousterian lithic artefacts and faunal and human remains began to be deposited during the second part of the MIS5. These results fill a temporal gap in the chronology of the Atapuerca sites for which no contemporary MIS5 date was obtained until recently.  相似文献   

9.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):949-960
Abstract

A geographical information system (GIS) was used for the integration of hydrological data acquired using remote sensing and geoelectrical techniques to understand the groundwater condition of Bakhar watershed, Mirazpur District, UP, India. Indian remote sensing IRS-1D, LISS—III data were used to prepare a geomorphological and lineament map of the Bakhar watershed. Vertical electrical sounding (VES) was carried out in different geomorphic units, and ranges of electrical resistivity values were assigned to the different formations by calibrating electrical resistivity with borehole data. Based on these, a subsurface resistivity map and an aquifer thickness map were prepared. Several layers were superimposed using GIS techniques. Each theme was assigned a weight, depending on its influence on groundwater recharge. Each class or unit in the map was assigned a knowledge-based rank from one to four, depending on its significance in storage and transmittance of groundwater, and these were then multiplied by the layer weighting to produce a score. Based on these scores, the watershed was categorized into different groundwater potential zones. The results indicate that the eastern and northern parts of the study area have very good groundwater potential to meet the demands of water for irrigation and domestic purposes, whereas the southern region has poor groundwater potential zones. Such integrated analysis has not been attempted so far in this region for hydrogeological investigation.  相似文献   

10.
Source location of long period seismicity at Volcàn de Colima,México   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper presents an analysis of seismicity associated with the volcanic activity of Volcàn de Colima (México) and recorded in the period November 2005–April 2006 during a field survey by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Osservatorio Vesuviano, the Observatorio Vulcanologico de Colima of Colima University and the Instituto Andaluz de Geofisica, University of Granada. Three different types of volcanic earthquakes have been identified on the basis of their spectral properties: Type A (0.3–1 Hz), Type B (1–5 Hz) and Type C (3–4 Hz). Results of polarization analysis applied to Type A events show a predominance of radial motion, indicating that the wavefield comprises compressional waves (P) and shear waves polarized in the vertical plane (SV), while the signal always begins with a negative polarity. Type A, B and C earthquakes have been located using both a flat layered model and a 3D model including topography. Hypocentre distributions indicate that the source of Type A signals is very shallow and confined to a small volume lying about 1 km below the crater. In contrast, the source of Type B and C events is significantly deeper, with most hypocentres located in a volume of about 1 km3 centred at 2.5–3 km depth. A cluster analysis based on the cross-correlation among the waveforms of different events recorded at the same station was applied to Type A earthquakes. Only two clusters, which include only a small percentage of events were found, indicating that earthquake families were uncommon during the period of our survey.  相似文献   

11.
The aim of this work is to propose a general model of Piton de la Fournaise volcano using information from geological and geophysical studies. Firstly, we make a graphical compilation of all available geophysical information along a W–E profile. Secondly, we construct a geological section that integrates both the geophysical information and the geological information. The lithosphere beneath Piton de la Fournaise is not significantly flexed, and the crust is underlain by an underplating body, which might represent the deep magma reservoir for La Réunion volcanism. Piton de la Fournaise is a relatively thin volcano lying on a huge volcanic construction attributed mostly to Les Alizés volcano. Indeed, if the differentiated rocks observed at the bottom of the Rivière des Remparts are the top of Les Alizés volcano, the interface with Piton de La Fournaise may be located at about sea level beneath the summit area. The endogenous constructions (intrusive complexes) related to Les Alizés and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes represent a large volume. The huge intrusive complex of Les Alizés volcano probably rests on the top of the oceanic crust and appears to have a buttressing effect for the present eastern volcano-tectonic activity of Piton de la Fournaise. The early Piton de la Fournaise edifice was built around a focus located beneath the Plaine des Sables area. The center subsequently moved 5–6?km eastward to its current location. The dense, high-velocity body beneath the Plaines des Sables and the western part of the Enclos probably corresponds to the hypovolcanic intrusive complex that developed before the volcanic center shifted to its present-day position. Magma reservoirs may have existed, and may still exist, as illustrated by the March 1998 crisis, at the mechanical and density interface between the oceanic crust and the Les Alizés edifice. Strong evidence also exists for the presence of a shallower magma reservoir located near sea level beneath the summit. The March 1998 pre-eruptive seismic pattern (location and upward migration) seems to be evidence for a transfer of magma between the two reservoirs. The dominant structural feature of the central zone is a collapse structure beneath the summit craters, above the inferred magma reservoir near sea level. The collapsed column constitutes a major mechanical heterogeneity and concentrates most of the seismic, intrusive, and hydrothermal activity because of its higher permeability and weaker mechanical strength.  相似文献   

12.
Nevados de Chillán Volcanic Complex, central Chile, has been active for at least 640 ka—a period spanning a number of glacial and interglacial periods. Geologic mapping, radiometric dating and geochemical analysis have identified six new volcanic units and produced four new 40Ar/39Ar ages for Cerro Blanco, the northern subcomplex of Nevados de Chillán volcano. Compositions range from dacite to basaltic-andesite and a new geologic map is presented. Examination of lava fracture structures on both newly mapped lavas and those mapped during previous studies has enabled interpretations of former eruptive environments. Palaeoenvironment reconstructions, combined with 40Ar/39Ar ages and comparison with the marine oxygen isotope record, show that at least three phases of volcanic activity have occurred during the evolution of Cerro Blanco: (1) a constructive, pre-caldera collapse period; (2) a period of caldera formation and collapse; and (3) a constructive period of dome growth forming the modern day volcanic centre. This style of volcanic evolution, whereby large-scale caldera collapse is followed by growth of a new stratocone is common at Andean volcanoes.  相似文献   

13.
Dose saturation represents a fundamental limitation for obtaining finite optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) quartz ages over Middle Pleistocene timescales. Single-grain OSL studies typically reveal significant intra- and inter-sample variability in quartz dose saturation properties at the individual grain level. This enhanced variability may offer the potential to obtain extended-range chronologies exceeding the traditional upper age limits of multiple-grain OSL dating. However, there have been relatively few detailed assessments of single-grain OSL properties over high dose ranges. In this study we investigate extended-range single-grain OSL dating potential at Cuesta de la Bajada, one of the most important Ancient Middle Palaeolithic sites in the Iberian Peninsula. The quartz samples from this site exhibit exceptional dose saturation properties and contain significant populations of individual ‘supergrains’ with bright OSL signals, very high characteristic saturation dose (D0) limits of 200 to >600 Gy, and dose-response curves that closely conform to single saturating exponential functions. Assessments of OSL signal composition and the ability to successfully recover a known laboratory dose of 470 Gy support the potential for obtaining high equivalent dose (De) values with reasonable fitting uncertainties. A series of novel sensitivity tests are used to assess potential biases in supergrain De estimation over high dose ranges related to (i) thermally transferred signal contributions, (ii) choice of dose-response curve fitting function, and (iii) insufficient dose saturation properties of individual grains. The single-grain De values obtained using the standard quality assurance criteria and novel sensitivity tests are consistent at 2σ, and are in agreement with quartz Ti-centre ages obtained on two of three paired electron spin resonance (ESR) samples collected from Cuesta de la Bajada. These comparisons support the suitability of our single-grain OSL results and suggest there may be good potential for using quartz supergrains to establish extended-range chronologies at some Middle Pleistocene sites. Comparisons with other single-grain OSL studies across the Iberian central plains suggest that favourable dose saturation properties may be influenced by regional-scale geological controls. The importance of undertaking single-grain OSL dating at Cuesta de la Bajada is also demonstrated by the results of synthetic aliquot experiments, which reveal multiple-grain age offsets of 60–170 ka when unsuitable grain types are inadvertently included in the final age calculations. The single-grain OSL results indicate that the main archaeological horizon at Cuesta de la Bajada (unit CB3) accumulated between 264 ± 22 and 293 ± 24 ka. These ages are consistent with the chronologies of other key early Middle Palaeolithic sites in the region (Ambrona AS6 and Gran Dolina TD10) and indicate that the Ancient Middle Palaeolithic techno-complex likely spread across Iberia from at least Marine Isotope Stage 9 onwards.  相似文献   

14.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):571-581
Abstract

The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.  相似文献   

15.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):929-948
Abstract

Understanding hydrology of channelized and natural headwater streams is paramount for maintaining ecosystem function and natural flow regimes. Two channelized and two natural headwater streams located in Upper Big Walnut Creek (UBWC) watershed in Ohio, USA, were instrumented to facilitate measurement, characterization and comparison of hydrology to the accepted paradigm for headwater hydrology. Data were collected at 10-min intervals from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2006. Differences in flow magnitudes (average, low and high) were generally greater (P < 0.05) in the channelized streams. Frequency of zero discharge and out-of-bank discharge was significantly greater in the natural streams. Zero discharge occurred in summer and out-of-bank flows occurred in winter. Rate of change variables indicated that channelized streams respond more quickly to rainfall, have significantly greater peak flows, and have slower recession times. In contrast, natural streams tend to be more “flashy”. The findings were generally consistent with the accepted paradigm for headwater hydrology and attributed to stream type, presence of subsurface drainage, potential connection to groundwater, and differences in riparian vegetation. The design and installation of management practices that influence hydrology should consider the potential impacts of altering stream hydrology. Management practices such as water-table management have the potential and show promise in altering the hydrology of channelized streams to resemble the hydrology of natural streams.  相似文献   

16.
Résumé L'eau de consommation délivrée actuellement à la population genevoise et d'une richesse en germes nettement plus élevée que celle délivrée en 1893. L'augmentation du nombre des microorganismes est due, avant tout, à la pollution des canalisations dans lesquelles le plancton mort sert de substrat nutritif aux bactéries et leur permet de se multiplier dans l'eau des conduites.
Zusammenfassung Das Trinkwasser der Stadt Genf weist heute eine auffallend h?here Keimzahl auf als im Jahr 1893. Dies ist auf die Verschmutzung der Kanalisationen zurückzuführen. In ihnen finden die Bakterien im abgestorbenen Plankton ein günstiges N?hrsubstrat, so da? sie sich in den Wasserleitungen vermehren.
  相似文献   

17.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):484-496
Abstract

During dry weather periods of the year with long rainless intervals, streams slacken to what is generally termed “low flow”. This work presents an analysis of the influence of hydrogeology on low flows, using multiple linear regression, in natural medium and small streams in hilly and mountainous regions of Serbia. The study cases encompass 61 gauged catchments south of the rivers Sava and Danube. Characteristic relevant minimum mean 30-day flows of 80- or 95-percentile exceedence (Q 80%, Q 95%) are taken as dependent variables. Independent variables are the observable hydrogeological quantities: catchment area upstream of a gauging station; surface area of a hydrogeological soil category in a catchment; number of perennial springs of minimum flow higher than or equal to 1 L/s in a gauged catchment; number of perennial springs, each of minimum flow higher than or equal to 1 L/s, in a given hydrogeological soil category of the catchment; cumulative perennial spring flow of minimum single flow higher than or equal to 1 L/s in a catchment; and cumulative perennial spring flow of minimum single flow higher than or equal to 1 L/s in a hydrogeological soil category of a catchment. Through multiple linear regression between the characteristic relevant low flow and the hydrogeological elements, 16 models are developed and analysed, each based on a different combination of hydrogeological elements and characteristic low flow. The regional relationships developed for the minimum mean 30-day flows of 80- and 95-percentile exceedences are evaluated. The statistical tests of the representation quality of each multiple regression relationship show that the models justify the use of hydrogeological elements.  相似文献   

18.
Tropical rivers display profound temporal and spatial heterogeneity in terms of environmental conditions. This aspect needs to be considered when designing a monitoring program for water quality in rivers. Therefore, the physico-chemical composition and the nutrient loading of the Upper Mara River and its two main tributaries, the Amala and Nyangores were monitored. Initial daily, and later a weekly monitoring schedule for 4 months spanning through the wet and dry seasons was adopted. Benthic macro-invertebrates were also collected during the initial sampling to be used as indicators of water quality. The aim of the current study was to investigate the physico-chemical status and biological integrity of the Upper Mara River basin. This was achieved by examining trends in nutrient concentrations and analyzing the structure, diversity and abundance of benthic macro-invertebrates in relation to varying land use patterns. Sampling sites were selected based on catchment land use and the level of human disturbance, and using historical records of previous water quality studies. River water pH, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity (EC), temperature, and turbidity were determined in situ. All investigated parameters except iron and manganese had concentration values within allowable limits according to Kenyan and international standards for drinking water. The Amala tributary is more mineralized and also shows higher levels of pH and EC than water from the Nyangores tributary. The latter, however, has a higher variability in both the total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations. The variability in TP and TN concentrations increases downstream for both tributaries and is more pronounced for TN than for TP. Macro-invertebrate assemblages responded to the changes in land use and water quality in terms of community composition and diversity. The study recommends detailed continuous monitoring of the water quality at shorter time intervals and to identify key macro-invertebrate taxa that can be used to monitor changes of the water quality in rivers of the Mara basin as a result of anthropogenic changes.  相似文献   

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20.
Small inland valley wetlands contribute substantially to the livelihoods of rural communities in East Africa. Their conversion into farmland is driven by water availability. We quantified spatial-temporal dynamics of water availability in a headwater wetland in the humid zone of Kenya. Climatic conditions, soil moisture contents, groundwater levels and discharge data were monitored. A land-use map and a digital elevation model of the valley bottom were created to relate variations in soil moisture to dominant land uses and valley morphology.Upland crops occupied about a third of the wetland area, while approximately a quarter of the wet, central part of the valley bottom was designated for flood-tolerant taro, grown either by itself or in association or in rotation with upland crops. Finally, natural vegetation was found in 3% of the mapped area, mainly in sections with nearpermanent soil saturation.The HBV rainfall-runoff model's overestimation of stream discharge during the long dry season of the hydrological year 2010/2011 can be explained by the strong seasonal impact of water abstraction on the wetland's water balance.Our study vividly demonstrates the necessity of multi-method approaches for assessing the impact of management practices on water availability in valley bottom wetlands in East Africa.  相似文献   

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