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1.
A model for the prediction of topographic and climatic control on shallow landsliding in mountainous terrain is enhanced to analyse the impact of upslope rocky outcrops on downslope shallow landsliding. The model uses a ‘generalised quasi-dynamic wetness index’ to describe runoff propagation on bare rock surfaces connected to downslope soil-mantled topographic elements. This approach yields a simple enhanced model capable of describing the influence of upslope bedrock outcrops on the pattern of downslope soil saturation. The model is applied in both diagnostic and predictive modes to a small catchment in the eastern Italian Alps for which a detailed inventory of shallow landslides in areas dominated by rocky outcrops is available. In the diagnostic mode, the model is used with satisfactory results to reproduce the pattern of instability generated by an intense short-duration storm occurred on 14 September 1994, which triggered a large percentage of the surveyed landslides. In the predictive mode, the model is used for hazard assessment, and the return time of the critical rainfall needed to cause instability for each topographic element is determined. Modelling results obtained in the predictive mode are evaluated against all the surveyed landslides. It is revealed that the generalised quasi-dynamic model offers considerable improvement over the non-generalised quasi-dynamic model and the steady-state model in predicting existing landslides as represented in the considered landslide inventory.  相似文献   

2.
《Geomorphology》2006,73(1-2):149-165
Manjiya County on the Ugandan slopes of Mount Elgon is a densely populated mountainous area where landslides have been reported since the beginning of the twentieth century. The numerous fatalities and the damage done during the extreme rainfall events of 1997 to 1999 drew attention to this phenomenon. In order to better understand the causal factors of these landslides, 98 recent landslides in the study area, mostly debris slumps, were mapped and investigated. Together, they displaced 11 millions m3 of slope material. Statistical analysis shows that landslides dominate on steep concave slope segments that are oriented to the dominant rainfall direction (northeast) and at a relatively large distance from the water divide. Based on landslide occurrence and impact, four different zones can be distinguished within the study area. Causal factors as well as landslide characteristics differ greatly between the four zones.Besides the fact that steep slopes, high rainfall and typical soil properties and stratification turn Manjiya into an inherently unstable area, human interference cannot be neglected. Whereas deforestation has reduced the stability of the shallow soils on the eastern slopes of the study area, the excavation of slopes, mainly for house building, is an important destabilizing factor for the western slopes. The growing population density not only increases the risk on damage, but hampers the search for solutions for the landslide problem as well.  相似文献   

3.
At the end of March 2006, the Czech Republic (CZ) witnessed a fast thawing of an unusually thick snow cover in conjunction with massive rainfall. Most watercourses suffered floods, and more than 90 shallow landslides occurred in the Moravian region of Eastern CZ, primarily in non-forested areas. This region, geologically part of the Outer Western Carpathians, is prone to landslides because the bedrock is highly erodible Mesozoic and Tertiary flysch.The available meteorological data (depth of snow, water equivalent of the snow, cumulative rainfall, air and soil temperatures) from five local weather stations were used to construct indices quantitatively describing the snow thaw. Among these, the Total Cumulative Precipitation (TCP) combines the amount of water from both thawing snow and rainfall. This concurrence of rain and runoff from snow melt was the decisive factor in triggering the landslides in the spring.The TCP index was applied to data of snow thaw periods for the last 20 years, when no landslides were recorded. This was to establish the safe threshold of TCP without landslides. The calculated safe threshold value for the region is ca. 100 mm of water delivered to the soil during the spring thaw (corresponding to ca. 11 mm day− 1). In 2006, 10% of the landslides occurred under or at 100 mm of TCP. The upper value of 155 mm covered all of the landslides.  相似文献   

4.
基于地块汇流网络的小流域水沙运移模拟方法研究   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
全流域逐地块水土流失计算,是目前水土保持定量评价的重要手段,其实现过程既需要有考虑地貌因子和上下游关系的土壤侵蚀模型,也需要建立全流域地块汇流网络,并与侵蚀模型有机连接。本文针对黄土高原特殊的地理条件和水土流失规律,对传统的基于栅格的小流域汇流技术进行了改进,考虑地块间上下游汇流关系,建立了基于地块的水沙汇流网络模型,模拟水沙在流域复杂下垫面的汇流过程,提取出流域各地块间的水沙汇流网络,并计算出3个重要参数:流域地块间水沙汇流的顺序、流域地块间水沙汇流数目的空间分配、水沙流经各地块的坡长。将土壤侵蚀模型按地貌部位与特征分为坡面模型、沟坡模型和沟道输移模型,与地块汇流网络有机集成,实现了水沙运移的全流域按地块沿程计算。  相似文献   

5.
Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
Landsliding of the hillslope regolith is an important source of sediment to the fluvial network in the unglaciated portions of the Himalayas of Nepal. These landslides can produce abrupt increases of up to three orders of magnitude in the fluvial sediment load in less than a day. An analysis of 3 years of daily sediment load and daily rainfall data defines a relationship between monsoonal rainfall and the triggering of landslides in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Two distinct rainfall thresholds, a seasonal accumulation and a daily total, must be overcome before landslides are initiated. To explore the geomorphological controls on these thresholds, we develop a slope stability model, driven by daily rainfall data, which accounts for changes in regolith moisture. The pattern of rainfall thresholds predicted by the model is similar to the field data, including the decrease in the daily rainfall threshold as the seasonal rainfall accumulation increases. Results from the model suggest that, for a given hillslope, regolith thickness determines the seasonal rainfall necessary for failure, whereas slope angle controls the daily rainfall required for failure.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

The component of gravitational acceleration parallel to the slope of the local surface partly determines the state of slope stability and the kinematics of flow under gravity on that slope. Geographical information systems based on digital elevation models offer the potential to be able to map this variable and permit the modelling of a variety of stability criteria and surface processes including landslides, rock avalanches, pyroclastic flows and lava flows. Three types of models and the basic map operations required to run them are discussed. The models are as follows: (i) sites of potential shallow slope failure (e.g. landslides), (ii) maps of flow deposition based on energy balance calculations (e.g. rock avalanches) and (iii) finite difference, initial value type simulations of dynamic flow (e.g. lava flows). The potential value of these models to hazard assessment is great but their application in specific cases must be assessed with reference to the accuracy of the digital elevation model used.  相似文献   

7.
Translational failures, with associated downslope earthflow components and shallow slides, appear to be the primary mechanism of hillslope denudation in the humid tropical forests of the mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. In-situ weathering of quartz diorite and marine-deposited volcaniclastics produces residual soil (saprolite; up to 21 m deep) / weathered rock profiles. Discontinuous zones of contrasting density and permeability particularly in quartz-diorite slopes at 0.5 m, and between 3 and 7 m, create both pathways and impedances for water that can result in excess pore pressures and, ultimately, aid in determining the location of failure planes and magnitudes of slope failures. In combination with relict fractures which create planes of weakness within the saprolite, and the potential significance of tensile stresses in the upper zone of saprolite (hypothesized to be caused by subsurface soil creep), shear failure can then occur during or after periods of heavy rainfall.Results of in-situ shear-strength testing show negative y-intercepts on the derived Mohr-Coulomb failure envelopes (approximately 50% of all tests) that are interpreted as apparent tensile stresses. Observation of tension cracks 1–2 m deep support the test data. Subsurface soil creep can cause extension of the soil and the development of tensile stresses along upper-slope segments. Shear-strength data support this hypothesis for both geologic types. Apparent values of maximum and mean tensile stress are greatest along upper slopes (16.5 and 6.29 kPa). Previously documented maximum rates of downslope movement coincided with local minima of shear strength, and the shear-strength minimum for all tests was located near 0.5 m below land surface, the shallow zone of contrasting permeabilities. These results indicate that subsurface soil creep, a slow semi-continuous process, may exert a profound influence on rapid, shallow slope failures in saprolitic soils.Data indicate that cove slopes in quartz diorite tend to be the most unstable when saturation levels reach 75%. Deep failures (7 m deep) appear the most critical but not the most frequent because pore pressure build-up will occur more rapidly in the upper perched zone of translocated clays before reaching the lower zone between 3 and 7 m. Frequent shallow failures could reduce the probability of deeper failures by removing overburden and reducing shear stress at depth. Deep failures are more likely to result from storm events of great duration and intensity.Sixty-six ‘naturally occurring’ and more than 100 ‘road-related’ landslides were mapped. Forest elevations exceed 1000 m, but the majority of these failures were found between 600 and 800 m in elevation. This appears to be the area where there is sufficient concentration of subsurface water to result in excess pore pressures. The high percentage of slope failures in the 600–800-m range, relative to the percentage at higher elevations, suggests that differences in soil-water processes are responsible for the form of these mountain slopes. Steep linear segments are maintained at higher elevations. Slope angles are reduced in the 600–800-m range by frequent shallow slides, creating a largely concave surface. In combination, slope segments above 800 m, and those between 600 and 800 m, produce the characteristic form of the mountains of eastern Puerto Rico.  相似文献   

8.
三峡库区山地灾害基本特征及滑坡与降水关系   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
马占山  张强  朱蓉  江志红 《山地学报》2005,23(3):319-326
分析三峡库区山地灾害的基本特征,着重讨论库区滑坡灾害与前期降水量的相关关系,运用Fisher判别法则建立该区滑坡发生的降水预报方程。结果表明,三峡库区山地灾害主要出现在雨季,7月发生最为频繁,灾害种类多样,主要以滑坡为主,降水是诱发山地灾害的主要因素;当日和前5d的暴雨日数、当日和前10d降水量与滑坡发生的关系最为密切,诱发库区滑坡灾害的主要降水类型为暴雨诱发型和多日中大雨诱发型;通过Fisher判别方法,以两个降水因子建立起的滑坡发生的预报方程,对于三峡库区滑坡发生具有一定的判别能力,为库区山地灾害的预防提供科学依据。  相似文献   

9.
Chun-Hung Wu  Su-Chin Chen   《Geomorphology》2009,112(3-4):190-204
This work provides a landslide susceptibility assessment model for rainfall-induced landslides in Central Taiwan based on the analytical hierarchy process method. The model considers rainfall and six site factors, including slope, geology, vegetation, soil moisture, road development and historical landslides. The rainfall factor consists of 10-day antecedent rainfall and total rainfall during a rainfall event. Landslide susceptibility values are calculated for both before and after the beginning of a rainfall event. The 175 landslide cases with detailed field surveys are used to determine a landslide-susceptibility threshold value of 9.0. When a landslide susceptibility assessment value exceeds the threshold value, slope failure is likely to occur. Three zones with different landslide susceptibility levels (below, slightly above, and far above the threshold) are identified. The 9149 landslides caused by Typhoon Toraji in Central Taiwan are utilized to validate the study's result. Approximately, 0.2%, 0.4% and 15.3% of the typhoon-caused landslides are located in the three landslide susceptibility zones, respectively. Three villages with 6.6%, 0.4% and 4.9% of the landslides respectively are used to validate the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility map and analyze the main causes of landslides. The landslide susceptibility assessment model can be used to evaluate susceptibility relative to accumulated rainfall, and is useful as an early warning and landslide monitoring tool.  相似文献   

10.
There are both internal and external controlling factors leading to slope instability and susceptibility to mass movement processes. This paper explores which external climatic variables of different temporal scales influence the occurrence of high-magnitude landslide events. The investigations were focused on the Wellenkalk-cuesta scarp in the Thuringia Basin (Thüringer Becken) in central Germany. The cuesta scarp is composed of a densely jointed limestone caprock (Wellenkalk), and impermeable mudstones and marls of the Upper Bunter Sandstone (Röt) in the lower part of the slope. Mass movements are a typical feature of the Wellenkalk-scarp. The entire scarp slope length (1000 km) has been systematically mapped and investigated in a comprehensive research project in order to provide reliable information on the spatial distribution and control of the mass movements. More than 20% of the scarp slope has been influenced by various types of Holocene mass movements with strong differences in spatial frequencies. Sixteen high-magnitude landslides (Sturzfließungen) were identified by field inspection and mapping of slope geomorphology. Information on locations, morphometric characteristics, stratigraphic positions and rainfall-related attributes of the scarp slopes affected by the large landslides is presented.Mean annual rainfall amounts decrease from more than 800 mm in the western part of the basin to less than 550 mm in the east. Meteorological statistics on the spatial distribution of heavy rainfall intensities of different durations and return periods show that greatest precipitation intensities in short events (1 h) are reached at the western margin. Differences in rainfall intensities between the western and eastern parts decrease with increasing duration of the events. Where available, event-related meteorological information was collected. The spatial distribution of the landslides is most closely mirrored in the pattern of mean annual precipitation, though this variable is generally not thought to be a satisfactory or reliable climatic controlling factor. No landslides occur below a threshold value of 700 mm. The empirical data show that some general level of average perennial water input into the slope system seems to be of decisive importance for the occurrence of high-magnitude mass movements. Only when the precondition of a more general hydrological disposition is fulfilled, a direct triggering of high-magnitude mass movements by a short-time intensive rainfall period or event can become effective.  相似文献   

11.
灌溉诱发突发性黄土滑坡机理研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
周飞  许强  亓星  巨袁臻  严越 《山地学报》2020,38(1):73-82
系统揭示黑方台突发性黄土滑坡物理力学机理,对滑坡防治具有重要的作用。自上世纪六十年代年黑方台常年的农业灌溉诱发了大量20~40 m厚的饱和突发性黄土滑坡。本研究在野外调查的基础上,通过分析滑坡的变形破坏特征,针对分布范围广、危害性较大的突发性黄土滑坡,利用室内GDS三轴试验和模型试验,分析研究了饱和黄土的应力应变特性及突发性黄土滑坡的力学机制。三轴试验结果表明,当围压小于300 kPa时,饱和黄土可产生完全液化,并处于流塑状态;当围压大于300 kPa时,饱和黄土仅产生部分液化,仍具有一定的抗剪强度。饱和黄土的应力—应变模式均表现为强烈的应变软化—剪缩型,并具有一定的稳态特性。模型试验表明突发性黄土滑坡的变形破坏过程可大致分为底部浸水饱和—毛细水上升—持续蠕动变形—突发性破坏4个阶段。斜坡发生突发性破坏时,孔隙水压力激增,但总应力仍大于孔隙水压力,黄土滑坡发生部分液化,饱和黄土仍具有一定的强度,为突发性黄土滑坡发生提供了应力和能量积累的力学条件。研究从有效应力原理的角度阐述了突发性黄土滑坡的力学机理,可以为滑坡的防治治理提供一定的理论依据。  相似文献   

12.
Environmental (geomorphological, hydrological and ecological) processes are controlled by rainfall, particularly in the Mediterranean, semi-arid and arid regions. Rainfall was analyzed using the concept of rain-spells, i.e., a period of successive rain days preceded and followed by at least one day without rainfall. Daily data from 13 stations along a climatic transect extending from the Judean Mountains with a Mediterranean climate to the Dead Sea arid region in Israel were studied. Rain-spell characteristics (number, yield and duration), based on these data, are presented for different rainfall thresholds, which might be used for different environmental processes such as rock weathering, soil organic matter dynamics, landslides, overland flow and floods and soil erosion. Three estimation models have been developed in order to predict the mean annual Number of Rain-Spells (NRS), mean Rain-Spell Yield (RSY), and mean Rain-Spell Duration (RSD) for the mean annual rainfall and for any given rainfall threshold. These models can be used for current climatic conditions and for scenarios in which the rainfall total changes.  相似文献   

13.
During the last decade, slope failures were reported in a 500 km2 study area in the Geba–Werei catchment, northern Ethiopia, a region where landslides were not considered an important hazard before. Field observations, however, revealed that many of the failures were actually reactivations of old deep-seated landslides after land use changes. Therefore, this study was conducted (1) to explore the importance of environmental factors controlling landslide occurrence and (2) to estimate future landslide susceptibility. A landslide inventory map of the study area derived from aerial photograph interpretation and field checks shows the location of 57 landslides and six zones with multiple landslides, mainly complex slides and debris flows. In total 14.8% of the area is affected by an old landslide. For the landslide susceptibility modelling, weights of evidence (WofE), was applied and five different models were produced. After comparison of the models and spatial validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Kappa values, a model combining data on elevation, hillslope gradient, aspect, geology and distance to faults was selected. This model confirmed our hypothesis that deep-seated landslides are located on hillslopes with a moderate slope gradient (i.e. 5°–13°). The depletion areas are expected on and along the border of plateaus where weathered basalts rich in smectite clays are found, and the landslide debris is expected to accumulate on the Amba Aradam sandstone and upper Antalo limestone. As future landslides are believed to occur on inherently unstable hillslopes similar to those where deep-seated landslides occurred, the classified landslide susceptibility map allows delineating zones where human interventions decreasing slope stability might cause slope failures. The results obtained demonstrate that the applied methodology could be used in similar areas where information on the location of landslides is essential for present-day hazard analysis.  相似文献   

14.
Part of the mountainous semi-arid areas of Iran is geologically and topographically susceptible to landslides. A study was conducted at the Merek catchment, Iran which is geologically characterized by limestone, sandstone, shale and marls so as to determine the factors responsible for the occurrence of landslides. In this study, geomorphological units within the catchment were mapped by overlapping geological, topographical, land use and erosion data, using satellite image and GIS. Rocks and soils were sampled within each unit to determine their physico-chemical and mineralogical properties. It was found that landslides have affected about 15% of the Merek catchment and that their occurrence were promoted by unstable soils, being eroded at the rate of 18.57 t ha−1 yr−1. These landslides were initiated by crack formation in areas having smectite, a mineral which can swell and contract, depending on the availability of water. Smectite is the dominant mineral in about 80% of the area affected by landslides. Low aggregate stability in the topsoil further promotes the occurrence of landslides. Field verification showed that landslides occur mainly in the forest where the canopy cover is less than 15% with slope of 10-40%. Deforestation, overgrazing and improper tillage practices were found to accelerate landslides in this catchment.  相似文献   

15.
Mass transfers triggered by a rare rainfall event on 20–21 July, 2004, with 58.4 mm of rain within 24 h and 71.7 mm of rain within 48 h in the Latnjavagge catchment (9 km2 , 950–1440 m a.s.l.; 68°20'N, 18°30'E) in the higher Abisko mountain region (Swedish Lapland), are quantified and analysed in direct comparison with mean annual mass transfers in this drainage basin. In years without rare rainfall events the Latnjavagge catchment is characterized by restricted sediment availability resulting in low mechanical denudation and mass transfers. During the rare rainfall event of 20–21 July, 2004, major stability thresholds on the slope systems (triggering debris flows and slides) and in the channel systems (break‐up of channel debris pavements and step–pool systems) in the Latnjavagge catchment were passed and mass transfers by debris flows, slides and fluvial debris transport in creeks and channels were several times higher than the mean annual mass transfers in Latnjavagge. In the calculation of longer‐term mass transfers and sediment budgets, rare events like the 20–21 July, 2004 rainfall event have to be considered as essential components. A reliable estimation of the recurrence intervals of such rare events is especially problematic. The general problem of defining an adequate length of process monitoring programmes is pointed out.  相似文献   

16.
武利  张万昌  张东  周杰 《地理科学》2004,24(4):458-464
文章介绍一种进行斜坡稳定性定量研究的分布式模型——SINMAP模型。该模型以水文学理论为基础,耦合稳定状态水文模型TOPMODEL与大范围斜坡稳定性模型,在充分考虑各种影响因素的基础上,对研究区域进行斜坡稳定性评价。选取汉江江口流域作为试验研究区,以DEM、遥感影象、各种专题图件及地面考察资料作为信息源,利用SINMAP方法获得可视化的研究区地表稳定性指数专题图。经实际资料检验表明,该模型可获取较高的预测精度,尤其在流域尺度上具有极大的应用价值。  相似文献   

17.
《Geomorphology》2003,49(1-2):71-88
Knowledge of long-term average rates of erosion is necessary if factors affecting sediment yields from catchments are to be understood. Without such information, it is not possible to assess the potential influence of extreme storms, and, therefore, to evaluate the relative importance of various components of a sediment budget. A study of the sediment budget for the Waipaoa catchment, North Island, New Zealand, included evaluation of long-term rates of landsliding for six landslide-prone land systems in the catchment. The number of landslides per unit area generated by each of several storms was counted on sequential aerial photographs and correlated with the magnitude of the corresponding storm. The resulting relationships were combined with magnitude–frequency relationships derived for storms from 70- to 100-year rainfall records in the area to estimate a long-term magnitude–frequency relationship for landsliding for each land system. The long-term average values of the areal landslide frequency (number of slides per unit area per unit time) were then calculated from these relationships. The volumes of a sample of landslide scars were measured in the field, and the proportion of slides that deliver sediment to channels was determined from aerial photographs. These measurements then allowed calculation of the long-term average rate of sediment production to streams from landslides for different land systems and types of vegetation. Results suggest that shallow landslides currently contribute about 15±5% of the suspended sediment load in the Waipaoa River above the Kanakanaia gauging station, and that 75% of the sediment production from the landslides occurs during storms with recurrence intervals of less than 27 years. Reforestation of 6.3% (93 km2) of the slide-prone lands in the catchment between 1990 and 1995 resulted in a calculated decrease in slide-derived sediment of 10%. Calculations suggest that reforestation of an additional 3% (66 km2) of the catchment in areas with the most sensitive combinations of land system and storm regime could decrease the total sediment inputs from landsliding by about 20%.  相似文献   

18.
The paper describes a methodology to detect landslide triggering scenarios in geological homogeneous areas and for some specific landslide categories. In these scenarios, the rainfall–landslide relationship as well as the pluviometric load conditions influencing slope instability have to be investigated.The methodology is applied to an area located in northern Calabria (Italy) and affected by widespread and different slope instability phenomena. Outcropped, fractured, and deeply weathered crystalline rock masses, determining geologic homogeneous conditions, are present. In the same area, suitable and homogeneous climatic features have also been found.According to the methodology adopted, the hydrologic analysis of rainfall time-series is initially carried out notwithstanding historical data concerning landslide mobilization, but using simple models to determine critical pluviometric scenarios for the three landslide categories: shallow, medium-deep, and deep. Landslide-triggering scenarios individualized according to this procedure are less significant as compared to the landslide mobilization detected in the study area by means of historical research and ascribed to the three landslide categories according to geomorphologic analysis.Subsequently, the possible landslide triggering scenarios are outlined by carefully investigating the hydrologic analysis limited to the periods identified according to the historical data.In the study area and approximately for all the areas characterized by the outcrop of fractured and deeply weathered crystalline rocks, significant triggering scenarios can be outlined. In particular, shallow landslide triggers could be activated by rainfall events with intensities exceeding 90 mm/day and/or with amounts exceeding 160 mm. As for medium-deep and deep landslides, triggering mechanisms are more complicated; and effective rainfall contribution must be taken into account compared to groundwater storage. Moreover, a more complex link between deep landslides and precipitation is confirmed.The results obtained to date highlight the potential of this methodology, which enables us to define and progressively improve the knowledge framework by means of a work sequence integrating different disciplinary tools and results.  相似文献   

19.
An integrated model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
This study proposes a novel method that combines a deterministic slope stability model and a statistical model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides. The method first uses the deterministic model to derive the rainfall rate critical to induce slope failure for each land unit. Then it calculates the difference between the critical rainfall threshold and estimated rainfall intensity. Using the difference and estimated rainfall duration as explanatory variables, the method derives a logit (integrated) model to compute landslide occurrence probabilities. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, the study used radar rainfall estimates and landslides associated with a typhoon (tropical cyclone) to develop the integrated model and the same types of data associated with another typhoon to validate the model. The model had a modified success rate of 84.0% for predicting landslides and stable areas, and model validation yielded a modified success rate of 87.4%. Both rates were better than those from the critical rainfall model. The main advantage of the integrated model lies in its use of rainfall variables that are not included in calculating the critical rainfall. Also, as a probabilistic model, the integrated model is better suited for decision-making in watershed management. This study has advanced the method for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.  相似文献   

20.
A sediment record is used, in combination with shallow landslide soil redistribution and sediment-yield modelling, to reconstruct the incidence of high-magnitude/low-frequency landslide events in the upper part of a catchment and the history of a wetland in the lower part. Eleven sediment cores were obtained from a dune-impounded wetland at Te Henga, west Auckland, northern New Zealand. Sediment stratigraphy and chronology were interpreted by radiocarbon dating, foraminiferal analysis, and provisional tephrochronology. Gradual impoundment of the wetland began c. 6000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the start of a gentle sea-level fall, but complete damming and initial sedimentation did not begin until c. 1000 cal yr BP. After damming, four well-defined sediment pulses occurred and these are preserved in the form of distinct clay layers in most of the sediment cores. For interpreting the sediment pulses, a physically based landslide model was used to determine spatially distributed relative landslide hazard, applicable at the catchment scale. An empirical landslide-soil redistribution component was added and proved able to determine the volumes and spatial pattern of eroded and deposited soil material, sediment delivery ratio and the impact on total catchment sediment yield. Sediment volumes were calculated from the wetland cores and corresponding landslide scenarios are defined through back-analysis of modelled sediment yield output. In general, at least four major high-magnitude landslide events, both natural and intensified by forest clearance activities, occurred in the catchment upstream of Te Henga Wetland during the last c. 1000 years. The spatial distribution of modelled critical rainfall values for the catchment can be interpreted as an expression of shallow landslide hazard. The magnitude of the sediment pulses represented in the wetland can be back-calculated to critical rainfall thresholds representing a shallow landslide model scenario.  相似文献   

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