Explication de décrues anormales par modèles analogiques de réservoirs

Résumé

Des modèles analogiques de réservoirs ont été élaborés à partir de l'analyse de débits de décrue de deux sources karstiques. La première source est caractérisée par une linéarité entre le débit et le temps; la seconde l'est par une loi en puissance. Pour les deux sources, il n'y a pas linéarité entre le volume d'eau souterraine stocké et le débit de la source pour un même temps. Les modèles analogiques élaborés sont constitués d'une association verticale en série de réservoirs. Pour la première source, il s'agit de réservoirs à parois verticales uniquement. Pour la seconde, il s'agit de réservoirs à parois verticales et d'un réservoir dont la géométrie des parois suit une loi en puissance à dimension non entière. La plausibilité et la reproductibilité des modèles analogiques proposés ont été validées en fonction des données disponibles. Il a été démontré que le cas de réservoirs linéaires en milieu karstique est un cas très particulier. Il correspond à des réservoirs à géométrie hyperbolique ou à des réservoirs à parois verticales à filtre poreux.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Carlier, E., Zouhri, L. et Shahrour, I., 2012. Explication de décrues anormales par modèles analogiques de réservoirs. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 913–927.     

A comparative analysis of sediment yield simulation by empirical and process-oriented models in Thailand / Une analyse comparative de simulations de l'exportation sédimentaire en Thaïlande à l'aide de modèles empiriques et de processus

Abstract

Although soil erosion has been recognized worldwide as a threat to the sustainability of natural ecosystems, its quantification presents one of the greatest challenges in natural resources and environmental planning. Precise modelling of soil erosion and sediment yield is particularly difficult, as soil erosion is a highly dynamic process at the spatial scale. The main objective of this study was to simulate soil erosion and sediment yield using two fundamentally different approaches: empirical and process-oriented. The revised form of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), along with a sediment delivery distributed model (SEDD) and the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE), which are popular empirical models, were applied in a sub-basin of the Mun River basin, Thailand. The results obtained from the RUSLE/SEDD and MUSLE models were compared with those obtained from a process-oriented soil erosion and sediment transport model. The latter method involves spatial disaggregation of the catchment into homogeneous grid cells to capture the catchment heterogeneity. A GIS technique was used for the spatial discretization of the catchment and to derive the physical parameters related to erosion in the grid cells. The simulated outcomes from the process-oriented model were found to be closer to observations as compared to the outcomes of the empirical approaches.     

L'énergie des perturbations et les deux régimes du mouvement des fluides en météorologie synoptique

Résumé On commence par déduire l'équation thermo-hydrodynamique d'une masse finie quelconque du fluide. Cette équation réalise la synthèse des équations du mouvement, de l'équation de continuité, de l'équation qui exprime le premier principe de la thermodynamique et de l'équation d'état. Sous sa forme première, elle ne se prête pas, pour plusieurs raisons; à l'étude des transformations d'énergie dans une masse donnée. En considérant cependant la décomposition du mouvement réel en mouvement de base et perturbation, et en appliquant l'équation thermo-hydrodynamique à une même masse dans le mouvement réel et dans le mouvement de base (c'est-à-dire, à une masse dont la surface limite se déplace de la même manière dans le mouvement réel et dans le mouvement de base), on arrive facilement à une nouvelle forme beaucoup plus simple, quoique rigoureuse, de l'équation thermohydrodynamique. Cette nouvelle forme exprime la perturbation de l'énergie cinétique du mouvement autour du centre de gravité de la masse en fonction de la perturbation de son enthalpie (terme margulésien) et de la perturbation de la dissipation d'énergie dans la masse par les efforts de frottement. D'où un premier résultat central du mémoire qui s'énonce en disant que la perturbation de la dissipation d'énergie contribue nécessairement et efficacement, dans certains volumes de l'atmosphère, à une augmentation de l'énergie cinétique des perturbations.La variation de l'enthalpie peut être exprimée en fonction du mouvement du centre de gravité de la masse. On montre alors que la variation temporelle de la perturhation de l'enthalpie est nulle pour toute masse dont le mouvement de la surface limite n'a pas de perturbation. Ceci conduit au deuxième résultat central, d'après lequel la variation de la perturbation de l'énergie cinétique du mouvement autour du centre de gravité dans und telle masse est égale à la perturbation, changée de signe, de la vitesse de dissipation d'énergie par les efforts de frottement.Ces deux résultats impliquent, selon l'auteur, un changement radical dans la manière de traiter le problème de l'origine de l'énergie des perturbations. En particulier ils montrent qu'il faut rejeter les modèles margulésiens ou margulésiens généralisés, selon lesquels toute perturbation est essentiellement un mécanisme qui emprunte son énergie cinétique à l'enthalpie de la masse.Le mouvement de base, produit directement par l'ensemble des actions extérieures thermodynamiques et mécaniques qui agissent sur le fluide, doit être considéré comme étant celui qui réalise à chaque instant, pour ses différentes propriétés, le minimum de variation temporelle. Ceci implique l'existence, en chaque point du fluide, d'une fonction de dissipation essentiellement positive, d'où résulte que la loi des efforts de frottement dans le mouvement de base est nécessairement une loi de Hooke isotrope. Sous l'influence des mêmes actions extérieures, le fluide prend cependant un mouvement différent du mouvement de base (en d'autres termes, il se superpose à celui-ci une perturbation) parce que la loi réelle des efforts de frottement n'est pas rigoureusement une loi de Hooke isotrope. La perturbation est donc, à chaque instant, la résultat de l'action, étendue à tout le passé du fluide, de la différence des deux lois des efforts de frottement.En négligeant cependant différentiellement, à un instant donné, la partie des efforts de frottement qui ne correspond pas à une loi de Hooke isotrope, on arrive facilement à une généralisation du théorème de Helmholtz sur la fonction de dissipation, et l'on montre que la condition nécessaire et suffisante pour qu'il existe une perturbation non nulle est que le mouvement de base soit rotationnel ou divergent.

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Summary The thermo-hydrodynamical equation for an arbitrary finite mass of the fluid is first of all deduced. This equation realizes the synthesis of the equations of motion, the equation of continuity, the equation expressing the first principle of thermodynamics and the equation of state. In its primary form, the thermo-hydrodynamical equation cannot be easily applied, for several reasons, to the investigation of the energy transformations in a given mass. However, by considering the separation of the motion in a basic motion and a perturbation, and applying the thermo-hydrodynamical equation to the same mass in the real and the basic motion (in other words, to a mass with the same displacements of its boundary surface in the real as in the basic motions), a much more simple (but still exact) form of this equation can be derived. This new form expresses the perturbation of the kinetic energy of the motion around the gravity centre of the mass as a function of the perturbation of its enthalpy (margulesian term) and the perturbation of the energy dissipation inside the mass by the frictional stresses. A first result follows from this equation, which states that the perturbation of the energy dissipation by the frictional stresses must necessarily and efficiently contribute, in some volumes of the fluid, to an increase of the kinetic energy of the perturbations.The enthalpy variation can be expressed as a function of the motion of the gravity centre of the mass. It can then be shown that the temporal variation of the enthalpy perturbation must vanish for any mass with no perturbation of the motion of its boundary surface. This property then leads to the second central result of the paper, which states that the temporal variation of the perturbation of the kinetic energy of the motion around the gravity centre of such a mass is due solely to the perturbation of the rate of energy dissipation by the frictional stresses.In the author's opinion, these results lead to a radical change of attitude towards the fundamental problem of the origin of the energy of the perturbations. They show, for instance, that any margulesian or generalized margulesian perturbation model, consisting essentially in a mechanism borrowing its kinetic energy from the enthalpy of the mass, should be rejected.The basic motion is the direct effect of the thermodynamical and mechanical external actions and must be considered as the motion which realizes, at any moment, a condition of minimum temporal variation for its properties. Consequently, an essentially positive dissipation function must exist at any point in the basic motion. The corresponding law for the frictional stresses is necessarily an isotropic Hooke's law. The real motion of the fluid, under the influence of the same external actions, differs from the basic motion because the real law of the frictional stresses is not strictly an isotropic Hooke's law. At any moment, the perturbation is the integrated result, for all the life history of the fluid, of the difference between the two laws of the frictional stresses.Neglecting however differentially, at a given moment, the part of the frictional stresses not corresponding to an isotropic Hooke's law, a generalization of Helmholtz theorem on the dissipation function can be derived, with the consequence that the necessary and sufficient condition for a non vanishing perturbation is a rotational or divergent basic motion.

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Communication à la 3ème Assemblée de la «Società Italiana di Geofisica e Meteorologia» (Gênes, 15–17 Avril 1955).     

Prévision saisonnière du volume de crue du Fleuve Sénégal: utilisation des résultats du modèle ARPEGE Climat

Résumé

Le soutien de la crue annuelle du Fleuve Sénégal par le Barrage multi-objectifs de Manantali nécessite de fin août à début octobre de fortes lâchures qui peuvent grever la production hydroélectrique de l'ouvrage. Pour faciliter la programmation de cet objectif par estimation du stock disponible dans le réservoir en fin de mousson, on cherche à prévoir en août le volume de crue naturel du fleuve de septembre—octobre à partir d'index d'anomalies pluviométriques calculés fin juillet pour ces deux mois par le modèle ARPEGE Climat. Après analyse en composantes principales de ces index produits sur un maillage de 300 × 300 km couvrant l'Afrique de l'Ouest, on détermine une zone de 1200 × 1200 km décalée à l'est du bassin où les vecteurs propres des index sont reliés au débit naturel de septembre—octobre par une régression linéaire à cinq paramètres (R ² = 0.651). Cette relation statistique calée sur la période 1979–2000 est validée sur la période 2001–2005.     

Modelling evaporation from reservoirs / La mise en modèle de l'évaporation des réservoirs

ABSTRACT

It is shown that a numerical model for predicting the depth time variation of water temperature in a fresh water lake or reservoir can be used also for prediction of water losses due to evaporation. The seasonal change in peak evaporation from summer (in small lakes) to winter (in large lakes) is satisfactorily simulated.     

L'Opération Sources en Belgique: premières analyses statistiques des résultats et légitimité des cartes “nitrates”

Abstract

This work critically assesses the storage, or hydrological methods of flood routing, focusing on the Muskingum and Kalinin-Miljukov methods. The common hydraulic basis of these methods and their inter-relationships are established, emphasising hydraulic derivations of the Muskingum method's weighting coefficient. Important characteristics of the routing scheme are highlighted, especially the scheme's affinity to the pseudo-viscosity method of shock computation; the flow-dependence (nonlinearity) of routing parameters is analysed, as are mass balance errors. Options in calculating depths and in handling lateral flows are presented. Storage routing models are shown to be instances of a numerically equivalent convection—diffusion equation or kinematic wave-derived convection—diffusion routing model that is also able to relate depth and discharge at-a-section via loop-shaped rating curves; the consequences of ignoring the rating curves' transience are pointed out. System analytic parameter estimations are summarised, a routing option with direct use of the diffusion wave system response function (SRF) is reviewed, the selection of routing reaches based on the river morphology is discussed, and the extension of storage-type routing to mass transport simulation is indicated.     

Modélisation pluie–débit journalière par des modèles conceptuels et ȁboîte noireȁ; test d’un modèle neuroflou / Daily rainfall–runoff modelling using conceptual and black box models; testing a neuro-fuzzy model

Abstract

Abstract Four rainfall–runoff models were applied on a daily time step and tested in the Cheffia basin, situated in the northeast of Algeria. The models belong to two categories: conceptual models–the GR3j model and the CREC model with eight parameters, and ?black box? models–the ARMAX model and a neuro-fuzzy model, which combines neural structure and fuzzy logic. The models were compared over two periods, one dry and the other wet. This comparison allowed a better model for the rainfall–runoff process to be proposed, on a daily time step, by combining the conceptual approach with a neuro-fuzzy system.     

Pulse generation models for daily intermittent streamflows / Modèles de génération d’impulsions pour des débits journaliers intermittents

Abstract

Abstract Generating pulses and then converting them into flow are two main steps of daily streamflow generation. Three pulse generation models have been proposed on the basis of Markov chains for the purpose of generating daily intermittent streamflow time series in this study. The first one is based on two two-state Markov chains, whereas the second uses a three-state Markov chain. The third model uses harmonic analysis and fits Fourier series to the three-state Markov chain. Results for a daily intermittent streamflow data series show a good performance of the proposed models.     

Comparison of grey and phase-space rainfall forecasting models using a fuzzy decision method / Comparaison grâce à une méthode de décision floue des modèles gris et d’espace des phases pour la prévision de pluie

Abstract

Abstract This work applies a fuzzy decision method to compare the performance of the grey model with that of the phase-space model, in forecasting rainfall one to three hours ahead. Four indices and two statistical tests are used to evaluate objectively the performance of the forecasting models. However, a trade-off must be made in choosing a suitable model because various indices may lead to different judgements. Therefore, a fuzzy decision model was applied to solve this problem and to make the optimum decision. The results of fuzzy decision making demonstrate that the grey model outperforms the phase-space model for forecasting one hour ahead, but the phase-space model performs better for forecasting two or three hours ahead.     

Suspended sediment estimation using neuro-fuzzy and neural network approaches/Estimation des matières en suspension par des approches neurofloues et à base de réseau de neurones

Abstract

The abilities of neuro-fuzzy (NF) and neural network (NN) approaches to model the streamflow–suspended sediment relationship are investigated. The NF and NN models are established for estimating current suspended sediment values using the streamflow and antecedent sediment data. The sediment rating curve and multi-linear regression are also applied to the same data. Statistic measures were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The daily streamflow and suspended sediment data for two stations—Quebrada Blanca station and Rio Valenciano station—operated by the US Geological Survey were used as case studies. Based on comparison of the results, it is found that the NF model gives better estimates than the other techniques.     

Identification of rainfall–runoff models for operational applications / Identification de modèles pluie–débit pour des applications opérationnelles

Abstract

The problem of selecting appropriate objective functions for the identification of a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model is investigated, focusing on the value of the model in an operational setting. A probability-distributed soil moisture model is coupled with a linear parallel routing scheme, and conditioned on rainfall–runoff observations from three catchments in the southeast of England. Using an abstraction control problem, which requires accurate simulation of the intermediate flow range, it is shown that using the traditional RMSE fit criterion, produces operationally sub-optimal predictions. This is true in the identification period, when applied to a testing period, and to proxy catchment data. Using a second case study of the Leaf River in Mississippi (USA), where the focus changes to predicting flood peaks over a specified threshold, also suggests that the relevant flood threshold should govern the objective function choice. It is concluded that, due to limitations in the structure of the employed model, it would be counter-productive to try to achieve a good all-round representation of the rainfall–runoff processes, and that a more empirical approach to identification may be preferred for specific forecasting problems. This leaves us with the question of how far hydrological realism should be sacrificed in favour of purpose-driven objective functions.     

Sur l'influence de la loi de répartition des densités à l'intérieur de la Terre dans les variations luni-solaires de la gravité en un point

Résumé Les observations des variations luni-solaires de la gravité en divers points du globe ne donnent pas des valuers très concordantes pour le facteur lié au module de rigidité de la Terre. On démontre ici que la répartition croissante des densités vers le centre de la Terre a pour conséquence d'amplifier encore les effets dus à l'élasticité. En adoptant la répartition deBullen, on aurait =1+0.244h>1, (h étant le premier nombre deLove). En outre une relation simple lie les facteurs et (déviations de la verticale). La valuer deh déduite de telles observations ne peut conduire directement à une valeur significative du module de rigidité du globe car il faut encore tenir compte des variations de la période et de l'amplitude du mouvement chandlérien du pôle.

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Summary Observations of luni-solar variations of gravity at various points of the Earth do not give values in agreement for the factor bound to the Earth's modulus of rigidity. It is shown here that the law of increasing of density toward the center of the Earth emphasizes the effect of elasticity: following the law ofBullen, we should have =1+0.244h>1, (h is the firstLove's number). Further, there is a simple relation between the factors and (deviations of the vertical). The value ofh deduced from such observations could not give directly a significative value of the modulus of rigidity because we must take into account the variations of period and amplitude of the chandlerian motion of the pole.

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Riassunto Le osservazioni delle variazioni luni-solari della gravità in diversi punti della Terra non dànno valori concordanti per il fattore legato al modulo di rigidità del Globo. Si dimostra che la ripartizione crescente della densità verso il centro della Terra ha per conseguenza di amplificare ancora gli effetti dell'elasticità; adottando la legge diBullen, abbiamo =1+0.244h>1, (h essendo il primo numero diLove). Inoltre, una semplice relazione lega i fattori e (deviazioni della verticale). Il valore dih dedotto da tali osservazioni non può condurre ad un valore significativo del modulo di rigidità del Globo poiché bisogna considerare anche le variazioni del periodo e dell'ampiezza del moto polare diChandler.

     

Indices for assessing the prediction bounds of hydrological models and application by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation / Indices pour évaluer les bornes de prévision de modèles hydrologiques et mise en œuvre pour une estimation d'incertitude par vraisemblance généralisée

Abstract

To reflect the uncertainties of a hydrological model in simulating and forecasting observed discharges according to rainfall inputs, the estimated result for each time step should not be just a point estimate (a single numerical value), but should be expressed as a prediction interval, i.e. a band defined by the prediction bounds of a particular confidence level α. How best to assess the quality of the prediction bounds thus becomes very important for understanding the modelling uncertainty in a comprehensive and objective way. This paper focuses on seven indices for characterizing the prediction bounds from different perspectives. For the three case-study catchments presented, these indices are calculated for the prediction bounds generated by the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method for various threshold values. In addition, the relationships among these indices are investigated, particularly that of the containing ratio (CR) to the other indices. In this context, three main findings are obtained for the prediction bounds estimated by GLUE. Firstly, both the average band-width and the average relative band-width are seen to have very strong linear correlations with the CR index. Secondly, a high CR value, a narrow band-width, and a high degree of symmetry with respect to the observed hydrograph, all of which are clearly desirable properties of the prediction bounds estimated by the uncertainty assessment methods, cannot all be achieved simultaneously. Thirdly, for the prediction bounds considered, the higher CR values and the higher degrees of symmetry with respect to the observed hydrograph are found to be associated with both the larger band-widths and the larger deviation amplitudes. It is recommended that a set of different indices, such as those considered in this study, be employed for assessing and comparing the prediction bounds in a more comprehensive and objective way.     

Transport de matières dissoutes et particulaires des Andes vers le Rio de La Plata par les tributaires boliviens (rios Pilcomayo et Bermejo) du Rio Paraguay

Résumé

Les données recueillies à 13 stations hydromètriques des réseaux du SENAMHI et de ENDE, de 1975 à 1983, permettent d'estimer les flux de matières particulaires et dissoutes dans les bassins andins des rios Pilcomayo et Bermejo, formateurs du Rio Paraguay. Les résultats obtenus en Bolivie sur le bassin versant du Rio Pilcomayo, montrent que l'essentiel de l'exportation est le fait des matières en suspension (90%). Le flux de sédiments mesuré à la sortie des Andes sur le Rio Pilcomayo (80 × 10⁶ t an^?1) est du même ordre de grandeur que Celui observé 2000 kilomètres à l'aval sur le Moyen Parana.     

Sensitivity of regionalized transfer-function noise models to the input and parameter transfer method / Sensibilité de modèles de type fonction de transfert bruit régionalisée (FTBR) aux données d'entrée et aux méthodes de transfert de paramètres

Abstract

Monthly shallow water-table depths can be predicted from climate forcings on a large scale by the combination of a transfer-function noise (TFN) model with a parameter regionalization scheme. To investigate the sensitivity of regionalized transfer-function noise (RTFN) models, simulations with different input series and parameter regionalization methods, combined with topographic external drifts, are presented. The input series include the precipitation, precipitation surplus or infiltration calculated by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model, and the regionalization methods include those based on a combination of the principal component analysis (PCA) classification or Gaussian mixture model (GMM) clustering, with the external drifts, such as the elevation or terrain slope, generated from digital elevation models (DEM). Verification and cross-validation show that the infiltration series reduces the errors for regionalization by 12.5–18.8%, but cannot improve the calibration. The PCA method outperforms its alternative GMM method for the input series and the external drifts. The combination of the infiltration series and the regionalization method based on PCA classification and elevation produces the best results with respect to the mean absolute error and root mean squared error. The spatial and temporal variations of water-table depths at a macro-scale in continental China are predicted by the combination.     

Fuzzy logic model approaches to daily pan evaporation estimation in western Turkey / Estimation de l’évaporation journalière du bac dans l’Ouest de la Turquie par des modèles à base de logique floue

Abstract

Abstract Evaporation is one of the fundamental elements in the hydrological cycle, which affects the yield of river basins, the capacity of reservoirs, the consumptive use of water by crops and the yield of underground supplies. In general, there are two approaches in the evaporation estimation, namely, direct and indirect. The indirect methods such as the Penman and Priestley-Taylor methods are based on meteorological variables, whereas the direct methods include the class A pan evaporation measurement as well as others such as class GGI-3000 pan and class U pan. The major difficulty in using a class A pan for the direct measurements arises because of the subsequent application of coefficients based on the measurements from a small tank to large bodies of open water. Such difficulties can be accommodated by fuzzy logic reasoning and models as alternative approaches to classical evaporation estimation formulations were applied to Lake Egirdir in the western part of Turkey. This study has three objectives: to develop fuzzy models for daily pan evaporation estimation from measured meteorological data, to compare the fuzzy models with the widely-used Penman method, and finally to evaluate the potential of fuzzy models in such applications. Among the measured meteorological variables used to implement the models of daily pan evaporation prediction are the daily observations of air and water temperatures, sunshine hours, solar radiation, air pressure, relative humidity and wind speed. Comparison of the classical and fuzzy logic models shows a better agreement between the fuzzy model estimations and measurements of daily pan evaporation than the Penman method.     

Changes in concentration–discharge regression parameters due to coal mining and reclamation activities / Changements dans les paramètres de régression entre concentration et débit,causés par l’exploitation minière de charbon et des activités de reconversion

Abstract

Abstract Assessment of the impacts of mining and reclamation, and design of management practices to reduce chemical loads in stream channels, require knowledge of changing hydrological conditions and of changing sources and rates of release of chemicals into stream waters. One simple method for evaluating these impacts is to combine flow duration curves with regression relations between surface-water chemical concentrations (C) and instantaneous discharge (Q). However, little is known regarding the drainage basin-scale effects of mining and reclaiming drainage basins on regression relations. These effects were assessed on three small experimental drainage basins in Ohio subjected to surface mining for coal. Comparisons were made between regression parameter changes for natural/undisturbed conditions, land disturbances caused by mining and reclamation, incomplete reclamation, and the final condition of the reclaimed drainage basins. Regression analysis used a total of 5047 laboratory analyses of 36 constituents. Of 429 regressions, 153 (36%) were statistically significant. Knowledge of changes in regression parameters is important because regressions supply information on the rate of release and supply of chemical constituents in mined and reclaimed drainage basins. Duration curves of concentration and loads can be constructed using these regressions with flow–duration curves to give estimates of the percentage of time that concentrations and loads are exceeded during different phases of disturbance. This study assessed the changes in regression relations due to mining coal seams and reclamation activities for 36 chemical constituents, two mining methods, three reclamation practices and three distinct geologic settings.     

Hydrogeomorphic properties of simulated drainage patterns using digital elevation models: the flat area issue / Propriétés hydro-géomorphologiques de réseaux de drainage simulés à partir de modèles numériques de terrain: la question des zones planes

Abstract

Flat areas are a critical issue for the characterization of drainage patterns using digital elevation models (DEM). In this work, flat area removal and flow direction algorithms are implemented, and also a physically-based DEM correction model is introduced, for investigating their influence on the topological properties of the channel network, the Hortonian parameters and the hillslope width function. Differences of results, as compared to the standard procedures implemented in widely-used GIS-based hydrological packages, show the importance for hydrogeomorphic modellers to consider the use of more detailed approaches.