中国生产性服务业发展与空间分布

从分行业的角度探讨了中国生产性服务业的发展特征及其在城市体系中的空间分布。研究表明,中国生产性服务业的发展水平还处在初级阶段,虽然高级别生产性服务业增长较快,但是所占比重较小。空间分布上,生产性服务业倾向于集中在特大城市。由于其在经济发展中发挥重要的作用,这种分布特征重组了城市等级结构和城市之间的经济联系。随着中国经济的持续增长和政府的政策支持,对生产性服务业的需求将大大增加。全球化背景下,发展生产性服务业也成为重要的城市发展战略。但是,生产性服务业不均衡的分布格局决定了大城市和特大城市在新一轮的城市发展中具有更大的竞争力。因此,中小城市在发展生产性服务业时必须进行深入的分析,以免造成用地和资金的浪费。     

Evaluating the Effects of Geographic Contexts on Individual Accessibility: A Multilevel Approach1

Centrality within a city and neighborhood characteristics have often been used as indicators of access to employment and services in statements about urban form and accessibility, but there are reasons to question the appropriateness of doing so. This paper evaluates the importance of geographic context within the urban environment (both location within cities as well as neighborhoods characteristics) for individuals in Portland, Oregon. Because conventional accessibility measures cannot incorporate individual characteristics, space-time individual accessibility measures were used with multilevel modeling to isolate the effects of individual level variations from that of geographical context. The results show that the influence of context on individual accessibility is weak, as accessibility tends to reflect individual and household characteristics rather than the local urban environment. Accessibility cannot be determined from location within cities, or from land uses around an individual's home, implying that the use of urban design to influence accessibility is inappropriate.     

北京市职住空间错位对居民通勤行为的影响分析——基于就业可达性与通勤时间的讨论

基于问卷调查的非汇总数据、第五次人口普查和第一次经济普查数据,测度了北京城市124 个街道的就业可达性,并作为职住空间错位的标度指标,讨论了职住空间错位与居民通勤时间之间的关系。研究发现：① 北京城市中心区的就业可达性高于郊区,高就业可达性的街道主要集中在二环以内及东二环至东四环的东北一隅。② 全体样本的回归分析发现,在控制社会经济属性与住房状况等条件下,街道就业可达性对通勤时间的影响并不显著,但就业可达性平方与居民通勤时间存在负向相关关系。③ 分收入组来看,中高收入组两变量影响均不显著,中低收入组和低收入组就业可达性对通勤时间的影响显著,表现为通勤时间与就业可达性为正向相关,与就业可达性平方为负向相关,说明一定的阈值范围内居住街道就业可达性的提高鼓励居民延长通勤时间,但超过一定阈值后则限制居民长时间通勤。该结果与西方城市研究的研究结论不同,反映出中国城市处于空间重构和转型期的独特性。但二者的共同点是低收入居民等弱势群体更容易受城市职住关系的结构性变化的制约,城市规划和住房政策应更加重视通过公共服务设施的空间配置消减低收入居民面临的空间障碍。     

城市文化氛围满意度及影响因素

城市文化氛围是影响居民生活质量和城市宜居性的重要要素。本文基于对全国40个重点城市近万份常住居民的城市文化氛围满意度调查数据,采用多层线性模型定量识别影响城市文化氛围满意度的主要因素。结果显示：在城市层级纳入考察的指标中,文化消费层次、文化设施及历史文化积淀对城市文化氛围满意度均有显著正向的影响;个体属性层级中,居民家庭月收入、年龄和职业对城市文化氛围满意度的影响显著,高收入、中等年龄段群体对城市文化氛围的满意度较高,农林牧渔水利生产人员的满意度较低。城市层级和个体层级的交互项结果显示,在人均GDP越高和剧场、影剧院数越多的城市,文化消费层次的多样性越高,高收入阶层对城市文化氛围越满意;与此相反,低收入阶层在人均GDP相对较低的城市满意度更高。     

Reply To “On Farmland Protection In Southern California”

Mounting evidence indicates that large, world-class cities have expanded their spatial markets well beyond the regional urban systems in which they are located. This has led many observers to conclude that in the contemporary economy, interdependence, interaction, and connectivity are no longer fundamental characteristics of hierarchical urban systems. Virtually all research, however, deals exclusively with the changing role of large cities, while the spatial markets of medium- and smaller-sized cities comprising an urban system have been ignored. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate whether the spatial markets of medium- and smaller-sized cities in an urban hierarchical system continue to display a systematic relationship with city size, or whether they also reveal the absence of connection, or integration, with the regional system. The analysis uses survey data collected from 480 producer service firms located in an urban hierarchy comprising 15 midwestern cities of the United States. The results indicate that the spatial market of the largest city (Chicago) extends well beyond the Midwest urban hierarchy, while the spatial markets of smaller-sized cities are more integrated within the hierarchical system.     

Administrative hierarchy and urban land expansion in transitional China

In a growing body of literature on urbanization in China, scholars have emphasized the proactive role of the Chinese local state in urban land expansion. Drawing upon official land use change data from 1998 to 2008, this study investigates the relationship between the hierarchical structure of the Chinese urban administrative system and urban land expansion. We find that urban land expansion coincides with administrative hierarchy, and cities with higher administrative levels (ranked by central government) tend to expand more rapidly while controlling for other economic and demographic drivers of urban expansion. Spatial regime models reveal that economic and demographic drivers of urban growth are also sensitive to a city's administrative rank. By quantifying the link between a city's rank and urban land expansion, we conclude that considering the hierarchical structure of the Chinese cities will result in a fuller understanding of the rapid urban growth in China.     

The Spatial Markets of Cities Organized in a Hierarchical System*

Mounting evidence indicates that large, world-class cities have expanded their spatial markets well beyond the regional urban systems in which they are located. This has led many observers to conclude that in the contemporary economy, interdependence, interaction, and connectivity are no longer fundamental characteristics of hierarchical urban systems. Virtually all research, however, deals exclusively with the changing role of large cities, while the spatial markets of medium- and smaller-sized cities comprising an urban system have been ignored. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate whether the spatial markets of medium- and smaller-sized cities in an urban hierarchical system continue to display a systematic relationship with city size, or whether they also reveal the absence of connection, or integration, with the regional system. The analysis uses survey data collected from 480 producer service firms located in an urban hierarchy comprising 15 midwestern cities of the United States. The results indicate that the spatial market of the largest city (Chicago) extends well beyond the Midwest urban hierarchy, while the spatial markets of smaller-sized cities are more integrated within the hierarchical system.     

中国城市非正规就业的发展特征与城市化效应

在城市化过程中,大部分农村剩余劳动力并未进入城市正规部门,而进入非正规部门,但关于非正规就业对城市化的作用却不清楚.基于国际劳工组织提出的中国城市非正规就业估算方案,采用协整和误差修正模型测度与解释非正规就业对城市化的作用.自1990年以来,非正规就业已发展成为中国城市就业的主要方式和就业增长的主要来源,其空间分布总体上呈现自东部,中部到西部依次减少的特征,其在城市就业的比重与城市化水平的关系符合倒U形的规律.模型显示:尽管短期内非正规就业,正规就业和城市化之间存在波动关系,但长期看非正规就业对城市化具有显著的推动作用,非正规就业每增长1%,推动城市化水平提高0.1%.这种作用主要体现在非正规就业推动农村人口向城市地区的转移过程与劳动力在正规就业与非正规就业之间的流动过程.结论强调,中国城市化面临的挑战不仅是失业问题,而更多是如何应对处于社会保障系统以外的非正规就业问题.     

高学历人才逆向梯次迁移现象及机制研究——以北上广深应聘至武汉的中小学教师为例

本文聚焦于高学历人才“逆向梯次迁移”现象,基于武汉市中小学教师招聘考试数据,运用二元Logistic回归模型分析正规就业驱动下北上广深至武汉的高学历人才逆向梯次迁移,结合粘性理论解释其机制。结果表明：(1)正规就业导向下,高学历人才逆向梯次迁移已成为人才迁移的重要趋势之一,以武汉为目的地的跨省城际迁移中近1/4呈现逆向梯次迁移意愿,非应届生占比高于应届生。(2)“逆向梯次迁移”受粘性因素、个人因素和城市因素影响。粘性因素即“户籍地粘性”与“就学地粘性”起到关键作用;包括“年龄”“毕业学校级别”“学历级别”和“户籍地所在城市级别”在内的个人因素和城市因素也存在影响。(3)与西方受宗教、种族、家庭和个人价值等因素影响不同,基于乡缘、学缘关系产生的户籍地、就学地粘性更深刻作用于中国的高学历人才择业迁移选择,引发逆向梯次迁移现象。     

大城市有利于小城市的经济增长吗?——来自长三角城市群的证据

厘清大城市是否有利于小城市经济增长这一问题,对于贯彻大中小城市和小城镇协调发展的国家新型城镇化战略具有重要意义。以长三角108个小城市为例,在传统经济增长模型中加入到大城市的地理距离、行政边界、市场潜能等因素,估计不同等级的大城市对小城市经济增长的空间影响及其异质性。研究发现：临近大城市有助于促进小城市的经济增长,并未发现存在集聚阴影效应的直接证据;空间相互作用的方向更多体现为高等级城市对低等级城市的影响,来自副省级城市的增长溢出最为显著,同层级小城市之间的空间关联效应相对微弱;城市间存在一定程度的市场分割,行政边界的存在阻碍了空间溢出效应的发挥。最后从强化中心城市的辐射带动功能、促进不同规模城市空间溢出效应的全域性释放、破除行政区经济的束缚等方面提出了促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展的政策启示。     

乌鲁木齐公共交通基础设施对低收入群体就业的影响研究

中国西部城市在大规模、快速度和高投资的交通基础设施推进的同时,审视其建设的社会经济效益就显得尤为重要。尤其对于城市低收入群体来说,公共交通基础设施投入是否能对提升就业水平、提升整体生活品质产生积极作用,值得规划者和决策者关注。论文基于乌鲁木齐2014年居民交通出行调查数据,采用带有交叉变量的多元线性回归和多元Logit回归方法,考察快速公交(Bus Rapid Transit, BRT)对于提升低收入群体就业可达性和通勤满意度的影响。分析结果显示：在就业可达性方面,低收入、男性和拥有住房产权者的通勤时间更长,距离BRT车站越近则通勤时间更短,私家车出行的通勤时间更长;在通勤满意度方面,低收入群体的通勤满意度水平更低,距离BRT车站近、选择私家车出行的通勤满意度水平更高。分析也表明,通勤时间短,通勤满意度水平不一定就高。这些研究结果表明,整体上公共交通基础设施建设对于提升就业可达性和满意度有着积极的带动作用,但个体经济社会属性的差异影响也不可忽视。研究乌鲁木齐公共交通基础设施对就业可达性和满意度的影响,有助于帮助西部城市制定提升低收入群体整体就业水平的公共政策,尤其对于促进地方就业稳定和带动区域经济发展有重要意义。     

长三角地区不同空间尺度创新合作对城市创新绩效的影响研究

引入超效率SBM模型（Slacks-Based Measure）、面板回归模型,探讨2001—2018年长三角地区不同空间尺度创新合作与城市创新绩效的关系,研究表明：① 长三角地区创新绩效总体呈上升趋势,但整体水平不高,创新绩效高值区集中在沪宁合杭甬发展带及其邻近地域,至2018年,22%的城市的创新绩效高于0.8657,仍有63%的城市创新绩效低于0.4491。② 不同行政等级城市中,3种空间尺度创新合作对高等级城市创新绩效的积极影响作用由大到小的顺序为：区域外创新合作、区域内创新合作、本地创新合作,对一般等级城市创新绩效的积极影响作用由大到小的顺序为：区域外创新合作、本地创新合作、区域内创新合作。③ 高等级城市中,本地创新合作与区域外创新合作相互削弱对方对创新绩效的积极影响作用,二者的平衡利于提高城市创新绩效;本地创新合作与区域内创新合作交互和平衡效应也与此相同。④ 一般等级城市中,本地创新合作与区域外创新合作相互削弱对方对创新绩效的积极影响作用,二者之间的平衡对创新绩效无显著影响作用;本地与区域内创新合作未因对方的变化而对创新绩效产生显著影响作用,二者之间的平衡对创新绩效无显著影响作用。因此建议：加快推进长三角地区多个空间尺度创新合作,重视不同空间尺度创新合作之间的关系对城市创新绩效的影响作用。     

转型期城市低收入邻里的类型、特征和产生机制:以南京市为例

本文以南京市为例,检查转型期城市贫困人口的空间分布特征,并着重分析贫困人口集中的低收入邻里的类型、特征及其产生机制。研究表明,转型期我国城市贫困人口的空间分布表现为在邻里或社区层面上的集中。城市贫困人口在邻里层次上的集聚,导致三种类型低收入邻里的产生,包括老城衰退邻里、退化的工人新村和农民工集聚区(城中村)。分析表明,这些低收入邻里的产生源于国家导向的城市发展政策和国家福利住房供应制度,并在住房市场化和房地产导向的城市发展过程中得以强化。基于南京市的实证分析和实地调查,城市贫困人口的空间分布状况和低收入邻里的特征被检查,低收入邻里的产生机制得以验证。     

芜湖市就业与居住空间匹配研究

借助偏离度指数分析法从宏观层面研究了芜湖市辖区的就业—居住空间匹配状况的变化特点,利用问卷调查数据,从微观角度分析了市区居民通勤的时间、距离、方式及费用。研究结果表明:芜湖市就业—居住空间匹配度趋于下降,核心区为服务业就业主导区,北部以制造业就业为主导功能,南部居住功能占主导,带来各区居住人口和就业人口的空间流动。居民通勤平均距离约为4km,平均时间约为25min,通勤方式以电动车、公交车为主。目前,居民对就业—居住地匹配状况的满意程度总体尚好,还需要采取措施以进一步提高满意度。     

THE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL TERRORISM ON THE RESIDENTIAL LOCATION OF THE POOR IN THE KINGSTON URBAN REGION,JAMAICA, WEST INDIES

Political terrorism is endemic in many large cities of Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1976 to the present, and particularly in 1979–1982, armed conflict between and within the two major political parties in Jamaica has profoundly affected residential location patterns of the urban poor. The Kingston Urban Region (population 719,000) has experienced dramatic movements in residential location. Between 1970 and 1985, out of a total exodus of 63,000 people from deteriorating war zones in the inner-city ghettos, at least 35,000 can be attributed directly to political terrorism. Such terrorism has also led to loss of housing and places of employment, overcrowding of other ghettos that have been spared or less seriously damaged, and a massive movement to locations up to 50 kilometers distant from the city center, in many cases to shanty and squatter settlements. The conflict has followed the exodus to the shanty towns, which are decreasingly secure and increasingly politicized. Transportation costs for some shanty town dwellers have reached as high as 44% of takehome pay. It is illogical that large areas of empty, blighted wasteland should exist within a kilometer of downtown while tens of thousands spend an ever increasing portion of their low incomes on commuting.     

城市级别和市场分割对城镇化效率影响评价——以中国285个地级及以上城市为例

为了从城市级别和市场分割的双维度解释中国城镇化效率增进的实现机制,运用2003—2017年中国城市数据和动态空间面板模型实证检验了城市级别和市场分割对城镇化效率的影响效应。结果显示,城市行政级别和市场分割程度是阻碍中国城镇化效率提升的两大制度壁垒,从而陷入“高级别?高分割?低效率”的发展困境。“高级别?低效率”的原因在于,高级别城市倾向于利用行政级别优势,以牺牲生态城镇化来过度追求人口城镇化、经济城镇化和土地城镇化,而“高分割?低效率”则源于户籍制度、地方保护及环境治理方式的差异。异质性检验结果表明,在东部地区设置高级别城市将有利于改善“高级别?低效率”的发展困境,而且高强度的环境约束、更先进的基础设施、更高效的公共服务与更开放的投资环境可以在很大程度上缓解城市行政级别对城镇化效率的抑制效应。     

The Steamer Parish: The Rise and Fall of Missionary Medicine on an African Frontier

In the past decade, the women's employment rate has increased in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states as a result of improved female educational attainment and the expansion of the local market economy. A significant gender gap in labor force participation (LFP) rates has emerged, however, compared to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The main aim of this article is to model the spatial variations of female LFP rates across the northeastern part of Oman. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique, within the geographic information system platform, is used to address how the relationships between Omani female LFP rates and a set of explanatory variables vary across Omani subnational boundaries. GWR is a powerful approach that can facilitate the identification of areas with lower or higher female LFP rates and help in better understanding the predictors that are associated with women's employment in specific locations. In so doing, this work attempts to fill the gap in the geographic literature regarding the modeling of local spatial patterns of female employment in developing countries. The results show that the female LFP rate is significantly associated with different spatial measures and particularly the geographic distribution of female education. Interestingly, the percentage of female jobs in the public sector is found to have a substantial negative effect on female LFP rates, especially in urban areas. This can be attributed to the propensity of Omani women to work in governmental jobs and reduce their participation in private and other business sectors. The findings of this research analysis not only offer a more nuanced examination of female LFP rate patterns but also provide empirical evidence in support of locally tailored policies pertaining to the female labor force, which might help in increasing women's participation trends in the local economy across local communities.     

中国城市物流创新的空间网络特征及驱动机制

创新要素高效流动的空间联系网络是物流高质量发展和区域物流协同发展研究的重要切入点.基于2003-2018年中国284个城市物流专利权利转移数据,运用大数据挖掘技术、GIS空间分析、社会网络分析和空间计量方法,研究了中国城市物流创新的空间网络特征及驱动机制,结果表明:①网络规模扩张迅速,网络愈加稠密化,形成以深圳、北京、...     

北京住宅郊区化与就业空间错位

北京从20 世纪80 年代末开始出现郊区化,其住宅郊区化特点尤为突出。北京市住宅郊区化的驱动力与西方城市的郊区化相比既有相似之处又有明显差异,相似之处是：都是城市化水平不断提高与社会进步的必然结果,以及土地有偿使用制度的实施和城市规划的引导; 不同之处在于北京的住宅郊区化是一种被动的郊区化,居民本身并不想离开市区,但是旧城改造与市区内高昂的房价迫使居民不得不到郊区购房。随着住宅郊区化的大规模发展,北京也出现了居住与就业的空间错位问题,这种空间错位虽然与美国郊区化过程中空间错位有许多不同之处,但在本质上是一致的,都是出现居住与就业的空间分离,造成低收入阶层通勤的时间成本与经济成本增加,导致交通拥挤、社会隔离等社会问题。     

中国流动人口的跨等级流动及其对流入城市住房选择的影响

妥善解决流动人口在流入城市的住房问题是实现流动人口市民化和提高新型城镇化发展质量的关键。本文基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,揭示了流动人口的跨等级流动格局,并探讨了跨等级流动对流动人口在流入城市住房选择的影响。研究发现：① 流动人口以跨等级向上流动为主,其中向上跨三级、两级流动的比例较大;② 不同流出地的流动人口在流入城市的住房选择存在显著差异,流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价越高,流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率越大;③ 流入城市的平均房价越高,流动人口获得商品房的概率越低,随着流入城市人均GDP的增加,流动人口购买商品房的概率先增后降,而购买不完全产权房的概率则恰恰相反;④ 随着流动人口跨越城市等级的增加,其获得住房产权的概率降低,而租赁正规住房的可能性增大。研究结果有助于深化理解流动人口在流入城市住房选择的地理根源,对进一步优化面向流动人口的住房政策具有参考意义。