Stabilization and global climate policy

Academic and political debates over long-run climate policy often invoke “stabilization” of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), but only rarely are non-CO₂ greenhouse gases addressed explicitly. Even though the majority of short-term climate policies propose trading between gases on a global warming potential (GWP) basis, discussions of whether CO₂ concentrations should be 450, 550, 650 or perhaps as much as 750 ppm leave unstated whether there should be no additional forcing from other GHGs beyond current levels or whether separate concentration targets should be established for each GHG. Here, we use an integrated modeling framework to examine multi-gas stabilization in terms of temperature, economic costs, carbon uptake and other important consequences. We show that there are significant differences in both costs and climate impacts between different “GWP equivalent” policies and demonstrate the importance of non-CO₂ GHG reduction on timescales of up to several centuries.     

The regional hydrologic impacts of global climate change: the role of climate models

The requirement to increase understanding of the complex interaction between society and the environment is well documented. Dramatic evidence of the vulnerability of anthropogenic systems to short-term weather fluctuations abounds. Taking an historical perspective provides an equally impressive picture of the potential upheaval caused by longer term climate changes. However, the past (and present) may not provide an adequate analoque for the future. The greenhouse theory of climate change suggests that the changes in climate regime to be expected from enhanced atmospheric CO₂ will be of similar magnitude to the glacial-interglacial mean temperature difference, but will occur in a fraction of the time. Consequently, considerable emphasis is being placed on the role of physical climate models in determining projections of future global and regional temperature and precipitation patterns. The latter climate changes will have important implications for the distribution (in time and space) of water, a principal natural resource and basic requirement for a variety of human activities. Consequently, climate models are being applied to the question of determining the regional hydrologic response to global climate change. The latter objective is a prerequisite to assessing the likely impacts on the water resources sector. This paper reviews current progress in achieving this aim and outlines some future research directions.     

Ozone, climate and biospheric environment in the ancient oxygen-poor atmosphere

To study the climatological role of ozone in the Precambrian atmosphere and the consequences of its reduction for the ultraviolet environment of the early biosphere, a coupled one-dimensional radiative-convective and photochemical model has been developed. Oxygen levels between 10⁻⁵ and 1 time the present atmospheric level (PAL) are considered. It is shown that when the ice-albedo feedback is taken into account, relatively important temperature decreases are associated with the ozone changes linked to the progressive decrease of the oxygen level from 1 PAL to smaller values.

A similar study is performed for enhanced atmospheric CO₂ pressures (P_co2). In these conditions, the ozone column is increased at low O₂ concentrations with respect to the P_co2 = 1 PAL case. Consequently, the larger CO₂ concentration in the ancient atmosphere could have contributed to strengthen the ultraviolet screening of ozone. The surface temperature response to the ozone decrease, as well as the thermal profiles are also analyzed in these CO₂-rich models. A possible evolutionary scenario of atmospheric O₂ and CO₂ is discussed.

The consequences of these calculations for the ultraviolet environment of the primitive biosphere is discussed with a quantitative model calculating bacterial surviving rates. According to this model, the minimum ozone column being tolerable by unprotected bacteria would fall between 1 × 10¹⁸ and 4 × 10¹⁸ cm⁻², depending on the bacterial species considered and corresponding to an O₂ level somewhat lower than 10⁻² PAL. For the coccoid blue-green alga Agmenellum quadruplicatum, this minimum ozone column would be of 4.5 × 10¹⁸, a value which is only slightly less than the presently observed column in the spring time ozone hole of Antarctica.     

Variations in ground surface temperature histories in the Thompson Belt, Manitoba, Canada: environment and climate changes

Several temperature–depth profiles recorded at Pipe Mine, 32 km southwest of Thompson, Manitoba, in central Canada, exhibit a marked departure from the equilibrium gradient. These profiles could be interpreted as indicating strong warming (up to 4.5 K) of the ground surface during the last 200 years. All the temperature profiles at Pipe Mine show perturbations stronger than at the others sites in the Thompson Nickel Belt. Temperature profiles recorded near the town of Thompson show a moderate warming (≈1–2 K) trend, while temperature profiles at Soab, 45 km southwest of Pipe Mine, indicate very moderate cooling (≈0.5 K). There was little human activity in this part of Manitoba before the development of the mining camp of Thompson in the late 1950s. Our study shows the variability of ground surface temperature histories at a very local scale (i.e. <1 km) with much stronger signals at some of the Pipe Mine drill holes than at others. These holes are located within 500 m of the highway and a power line built after 1955, at ≈3 km from the now abandoned open pit mine. The ground surface temperature history (GSTH) obtained by the inversion of Pipe Mine temperature profiles suggests that a recent (50 years) and strong (≈1–2 K) ground surface warming is superimposed on a 1–2 K warming trend that started 200 years ago, without any indication of a cold (little ice ages) episode before. The recent warming (40 years) at Pipe Mine is only a local effect and is likely to be related to the presence of the highway. Before 1960, the ground surface temperature history for Pipe is similar to other sites in the Thompson region. Ground surface temperature histories from other profiles within and near the city of Thompson seem less affected by environmental perturbations and their trends are parallel to that of the meteorological records in the Canadian Prairies.     

Borehole temperatures, climate change and the pre-observational surface air temperature mean: allowance for hydraulic conditions

Joint analysis of surface air temperature series recorded at weather stations together with the inversion of the temperature-depth profiles logged in the near-by boreholes enables an estimate of the conditions existing prior to the beginning of the meteorological observation, the so-called pre-observational mean (POM) temperature.Such analysis is based on the presumption of pure diffusive conditions in the underground. However, in real cases a certain subsurface fluid movement cannot be excluded and the measured temperature logs may contain an advective component. The paper addresses the correction for the hydraulic conditions, which may have perturbed the climate signal penetrating from the surface into the underground. The method accounts for vertical conductive and vertical advective heat transport in a 1-D horizontally layered stratum and provides a simultaneous evaluation of the POM-temperature together with the estimate of the Darcy fluid velocity. The correction strategy is illustrated on a synthetic example and its use is demonstrated on temperature logs measured in four closely spaced boreholes drilled near Tachlovice (located about 15 km SW of Prague, Czech Republic). The results revealed that in a case of moderately advectively affected subsurface conditions (fluid velocities about 10⁻⁹ m/s), the difference between POM-values assessed for a pure conductive approach and for combined vertical conductive/advective approach may amount up to 0.3–0.5 K, the value comparable with the amount usually ascribed to the 20th century climate warming.     

Edge adapted wavelets,solar magnetic activity,and climate change

The continuous wavelet transform is adapted to account for signal truncation through renormalization and by modifying the shape of the analyzing window. Comparison is made of the instant, integrated, and mean wavelet power with previous algorithms. The edge adapted and renormalized admissible wavelet transforms are used to estimate the level of solar magnetic activity from the sunspot record. The solar activity is compared to Oerlemans’ temperature reconstruction and to the Central England Temperature record. A correlation is seen for years between 1610 and 1990, followed by a strong deviation as the recently observed temperature increases.     

Examining the sensitivity of Earth's climate to the removal of ozone, landmasses and enhanced ocean heat transport in the GENESIS global climate model

This paper examines the cloud radiative forcing and its impacts on the surface climate for global climate model simulations that use reduced ozone concentrations and land fractions as boundary conditions. In one simulation using present-day land continents, ozone concentrations are reduced to zero and compared to the present-day climate simulation. In the second set of simulations under global ocean conditions, the implied poleward transport of heat by the ocean is varied. The removal of ozone causes an increase in longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. The increase in longwave forcing melts sea-ice and snow at high latitudes leading 10–14°C warmer temperatures and globally a 2°C increase. The global ocean simulations lead to higher cloud fractions than present-day simulation. Without poleward transport of heat by the ocean, surface temperatures cool as a result of higher cloud fractions. Increasing the ocean heat transport by a factor of 3.33 brings about ice-free conditions. An 11°C difference in globally averaged surface air temperatures is found between the enhanced and zero poleward oceanic heat transport simulations. The longwave cloud radiative forcing from high cloud fractions enhance the surface warming in the polar regions during the winter season. Conversely, during the summer season, a high cloud fraction increases the shortwave cloud radiative forcing producing only moderately warm temperatures in the polar regions. High cloud fractions in polar regions during warm periods throughout geologic times may help to explain the reduced equator to pole temperature gradient.     

Antarctic dry valleys: Microclimate zonation, variable geomorphic processes, and implications for assessing climate change on Mars

The Antarctic Dry Valleys (ADV) are generally classified as a hyper-arid, cold-polar desert. The region has long been considered an important terrestrial analog for Mars because of its generally cold and dry climate and because it contains a suite of landforms at macro-, meso-, and microscales that closely resemble those occurring on the martian surface. The extreme hyperaridity of both Mars and the ADV has focused attention on the importance of salts and brines on soil development, phase transitions from liquid water to water ice, and ultimately, on process geomorphology and landscape evolution at a range of scales on both planets. The ADV can be subdivided into three microclimate zones: a coastal thaw zone, an inland mixed zone, and a stable upland zone; zones are defined on the basis of summertime measurements of atmospheric temperature, soil moisture, and relative humidity. Subtle variations in these climate parameters result in considerable differences in the distribution and morphology of: (1) macroscale features (e.g., slopes and gullies); (2) mesoscale features (e.g., polygons, including ice-wedge, sand-wedge, and sublimation-type polygons, as well as viscous-flow features, including solifluction lobes, gelifluction lobes, and debris-covered glaciers); and (3) microscale features (e.g., rock-weathering processes/features, including salt weathering, wind erosion, and surface pitting). Equilibrium landforms are those features that formed in balance with environmental conditions within fixed microclimate zones. Some equilibrium landforms, such as sublimation polygons, indicate the presence of extensive near-surface ice; identification of similar landforms on Mars may also provide a basis for detecting the location of shallow ice. Landforms that today appear in disequilibrium with local microclimate conditions in the ADV signify past and/or ongoing shifts in climate zonation; understanding these shifts is assisting in the documentation of the climate record for the ADV. A similar type of landform analysis can be applied to the surface of Mars where analogous microclimates and equilibrium landforms occur (1) in a variety of local environments, (2) in different latitudinal bands, and (3) in units of different ages. Documenting the nature and evolution of the ADV microclimate zones and their associated geomorphic processes is helping to provide a quantitative framework for assessing the evolution of climate on Mars.     

Quaternary vegetation and climate changes on Banks Peninsula, South Island, New Zealand

Late Quaternary terrestrial and marine pollen records from the Canterbury Plains and Banks Peninsula suggest that climates during the peak of Marine Isotope Stage 7 (MIS 7) were similar to those prevailing during stage 5e and the Holocene. Podocarp forest (notably Prumnopitys taxifolia—matai) characterises each interglaciation. In contrast, marine records from DSDP 594 cores, off the east coast of Canterbury, indicate that stage 7 was dominated by montane forest (Libocedrus sp. and Phyllocladus). This suggests temperatures as much as 3 °C colder than indicated by the Banks Peninsula assemblage. Age control from both sites appears to be robust. Some of the differences may be related to the taphonomy of the pollen at both sites. DSDP 594 may reflect a more southerly catchment of fluvially and aeolian-derived pollen than does the Banks Peninsula site.Banks Peninsula was alternately separated from, and joined to, the mainland as Quaternary sea levels fell and rose. Assuming modern ocean current patterns, during interglacials the south–north Southland Current would have swept through the seaway separating the island from the mainland, diverting the flow of rivers embouching on the Canterbury coast, and moving sediments and fluvially transported pollen northwards. Little of this material would have reached DSDP 594, nor, if wind patterns were similar to those of today, would wind-borne pollen from Banks Peninsula have reached the site. It is probable that vegetation on the Peninsula was consistently distinct from that recorded at DSDP 594, which has a more southerly derivation.In contrast to the high mountain areas of the South Island, the low levels of grass pollen in the available record suggest that the Peninsula retained a woody vegetation over much of its area during glacial periods. This was favoured by the physiography of the area, with a variety of micro-climates, and by the extensive areas available for colonisation at times of low sea level. The podocarp forest of MIS 7 was replaced by an open shrubby vegetation in which Leptospermum and Kunzea (Leptospermum-type pollen) was locally dominant, and in which Plagianthus, Phyllocladus, Coprosma and Myrsine were prominent. Charcoal is associated with this change. Most of the recorded taxa, with the exception of Phyllocladus, are present on the Peninsula today. A gap in the pollen record coincides with the Last Interglacial and Last Glaciation, but a return of forest vegetation is documented in the later Holocene.The reconstructions do not exclude the possibility of a cooler stage 7. They do highlight the importance of excluding local/regional non-climatic effects before interpreting climate change from data sets, and reinforce the necessity of testing marine records against compatible terrestrial ones.     

Sorted stone circles in Elysium Planitia, Mars: Implications for recent martian climate

We have found sorted stone circles and polygons near the equator of Mars, using new 25 cm/pixel NASA HiRISE (High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment) images. The sorted circles occur in geologically recent catastrophic flood deposits in the equatorial Elysium Planitia region, and are diagnostic of periglacial processes: sorted polygons do not form from volcanic activity, as has been suggested for non-sorted polygons in this region. These landforms indicate that (i) a long-lived, geologically recent, active cryoturbation layer of ground ice was present in the regolith, (ii) there was some degree of freeze-thaw, and thus (iii) there were sustained period(s), likely within the last 10 Ma, in which the martian climate was 40 to 60 K warmer than current models predict.     

Late Pleistocene glaciers and climate in the Mediterranean

Evidence for Late Pleistocene glaciers and rock glaciers in the Pindus Mountains, Greece, is used to reconstruct palaeoclimate for this part of the Mediterranean during the last cold stage (Tymphian/ Würmian). Mean annual precipitation was c. 2300 ± 200 mm and the mean summer temperature (June/July/August) was c. 4.9 °C at 2174 m a.s.l., the equilibrium line altitude of the former glaciers, at the last local glacier maximum. The glacier–climate relationship in the northern Pindus Mountains during the local glacier maximum of the Tymphian Stage closely resembled that found today at the equilibrium line altitude of Norwegian glaciers. The local glacier maximum on Mount Tymphi is likely to have preceded both the most severe phase of climate indicated in the pollen record at nearby Ioannina and also the global last glacial maximum. Major stadials, including the most severe phase of the last cold stage, were characterised by cold sea surfaces temperatures, which inhibited atmospheric moisture supply creating unfavourable conditions for glacier formation. Such stadial conditions are likely to have favoured periglacial conditions and the formation of features such as rock glaciers. Conversely, warm summer temperatures during major interstadials would have promoted glacier ablation, offsetting increased precipitation enabled by warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, the most favourable conditions for glacier formation would have occurred during intermediate conditions between major stadials and interstadials. It is clear that former glacier behaviour in the mountains of this region is best understood with reference to temporally dynamic glacier–climate models, which take into account millennial-scale changes in both precipitation and temperature.     

A review on East Asian dust storm climate, modelling and monitoring

In arid and semi-arid area of Asia, dust storms occur frequently. Asian dust storms have a major impact on the air quality of the densely populated areas of China, Korea and Japan, and are important to the global dust cycle. In extreme cases, they result in the loss of human lives and disruptions of social and economic activities. In recent years, systematic research on Asian dust storms has been carried out. Much progress has been made in the development of integrated dust storm monitoring and modeling systems by making use of advanced numerical models, satellite remote sensing and GIS data. In this paper, we summarize the recent achievements in Asian dust storm research with an emphasis on dust climatology, modeling and satellite monitoring. The concept of integrated dust storm monitoring and modeling system is described and a summary of the developments in key research areas is given, including new dust models and techniques in satellite remote sensing and system integration. We then discuss the current research frontiers and the challenges for future studies.     

Environmental predictions for the Beagle 2 lander, based on GCM climate simulations

The Mars climate database (MCD) is a database of statistics based on output from physically consistent numerical model simulations which describe the climate and surface environment of Mars. It is used here to predict the meteorological environment of the Beagle 2 lander site. The database was constructed directly on the basis of output from multiannual integrations of two general circulation models, developed jointly at Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France, and the University of Oxford, UK. In an atmosphere with dust opacities similar to that observed by Mars Global Surveyor, the predicted surface temperature at the time of landing (L_s=322°, 13:00 local time), is , and varying between ∼186 and over the Martian day. The predicted air temperature at above the surface, the height of the fully extended Beagle 2 robot arm, is at the time of landing. The expected mean wind near the surface on landing is north-westerly in direction, becoming more southerly over the mission. An increase in mean surface pressure is expected during the mission. Heavy global dust storm predictions are discussed; conditions which may only occur in the extreme as the expected time of landing is around the end of the main dust storm period. Past observations show approximately a one in five chance of a large-scale dust storm in a whole Mars year over the landing region, Isidis Planitia. This statistic results from observations of global, encircling, regional and local dust storms but does not include any small-scale dust “events” such as dust devils.     

The regulation of carbon dioxide and climate: Gaia or geochemistry

This is a review of the Gaia hypothesis which postulates a condition of planetary homeostasis affecting chemical composition and climate. Some criticisms are answered and a new model is introduced for the long term regulation of the mean surface temperature through the biological control of CO₂ partial pressure.     

Glacier mass balance variability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru and its relationship with climate and the large-scale circulation

A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Niño and above average mass balance during La Niña episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Niño years with above average mass balance and La Niña events with negative mass balance have been observed.     

Indications for bottom current activity since Eocene times: The climate and ocean gateway archive of the Transkei Basin, South Africa

The Transkei Basin deposits document the sediment transport around South Africa and, hence, reveal details of palaeocurrent activity of this region for the past 36 my. Thermohaline driven water masses like the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which are part of the global conveyor belt and the main motor for the heat transfer worldwide, have to pass the southern tip of Africa. A large amount of their sedimentary freight is deposited in the submarine Transkei Basin. By the investigation of high resolution seismic reflection data from central Transkei Basin sediments, we reconstructed depocentres and interface outlines for five different time slices since Cretaceous times. Since at least Late Eocene times, we observe an increasing activity of proto-AABW and later proto-NADW in the Transkei Basin. The current's settings were recurrently modified by various large scale global events, like the opening of the Drake Passage Gateway and the Tasman Gateway ( 34 Ma), respectively, or the closure of the Panama Isthmus ( 3 Ma). The investigations reveal a strong influence of global tectonic and climatic events on NADW and (proto-) AABW and their influence on Transkei Basin deposition.