鄱阳湖汇流顶托对长江汉口水位影响的量化分析

为定量评估汇流顶托对水位变化的影响,本文从水文过程仿真及顶托响应评价入手,提出了一种汇流顶托对水位影响的量化分析方法,并以长江汉口江段为例,开展了鄱阳湖汇流顶托对长江汉口江段水位影响的量化评价,结果表明:改进提出的长江汉口江段水文仿真模型,经参数优选后确定性系数可达0.98以上,总量相对误差绝对值在3%以内,较好地再现了水文变化过程;通过响应指数定义及水文过程模拟,研制了汉口多值型水位流量关系响应特征曲线,揭示了鄱阳湖与长江水位变化的关联性机制;经2016和2020年洪水实例分析,汉口江段长历时高洪水位主要受长江来水及鄱阳湖汇流顶托共同驱动,二者合力贡献可达83.3%以上,其中鄱阳湖汇流顶托贡献率在35%左右.其余因素(如区间洪水、沿江排涝等)亦助推高洪水位形成,部分时段贡献可达近34.4%.本文提出的顶托量化分析方法,可定量评估因顶托效应引起的水位变化,为解析河段高洪水位成因机制提供了有效的技术支撑.     

近100年来长江与洞庭湖汇流河段水文特征演变

洞悉长江洞庭湖汇流河段的水文关系及其变化规律对确保长江中下游的防洪安全至关重要.为了掌握汇流河段水文特征演变情况,本文结合汇流河段处监利、城陵矶、螺山等国家重要水文控制断面的近百年水文资料,通过M-K检验、Morlet小波分析等方法研究了该河段逐日水位、流量等水文数据,分析了汇流河段年内分配、年际变化、变化趋势、突变点及变化周期等水文特征,并探讨了具体成因.研究结果表明:①长江与洞庭湖汇流河段年最高水位一般出现在7月,年最低水位一般出现在1、2月;②汇流河段年径流量主要集中在59月,占年径流总量的63.64%~73.44%;③近50年城陵矶水位高、中、低水分别约抬升0.98、0.56、1.46 m;④近10年城陵矶与监利年径流比降至0.66.⑤在长江中下游水利开发历程中,经突变检验表明,下荆江裁弯取直和三峡蓄水175 m对江湖水文特征的影响较为明显.⑥城陵矶站和螺山站的年径流量、水位平均周期约为16 a,监利站的年径流量、水位平均周期约为8 a.⑦19542017年间,汇流比最大值一直在降低,其发生时间在逐渐提前.以上成果为深入研究流域复杂的江湖演变规律提供了科学参考.     

近30年洞庭湖季节性水情变化及其对江湖水量交换变化的响应

江湖水量交换的变化影响着通江湖泊洞庭湖的水情,进而影响湖区社会经济及生态的可持续发展.以洞庭湖城陵矶站、南咀站以及长江干流宜昌站、螺山站1981-2012年逐日水位、流量观测数据为基础,采用单位根检验、方差分析和水位-流量绳套曲线等方法对洞庭湖季节性水情变化特征进行提取,并探究江湖水量交换变化对其产生的影响.研究表明:近30年来洞庭湖水情呈阶段性特征,与相对稳定的1981-2002年相比,2003-2012年湖泊水位总体呈下降趋势,年均水位下降0.43 m;枯、涨、丰、退水期各季水情变化特征为:2003年以后洞庭湖丰水期水位平均下降0.60 m,呈现出"高水不高"现象;退水期水位平均下降1.49 m,退水加快;枯水期水位略有上升,平均上升0.18 m;涨水期水位变化不明显.湖泊退水期水位降幅最为明显,尤其是10月大幅下降,平均下降2.03 m,有提前进入枯水期的趋势.水情变化与江湖水量交换变化密切相关:丰水期,三口(松滋、太平和藕池)分流量减小在一定程度上降低湖泊水位;退水期,三口分流量减小叠加城陵矶出口长江水位下降对洞庭湖产生拉空作用,湖泊出流加快水位被拉低;枯水期,主要是1 3月,城陵矶出口长江水位上升对湖泊顶托作用增强,湖泊出流减缓水位略有抬升.     

三峡大坝下游粗细颗粒泥沙输移规律及成因

以三峡下游河段为研究对象,利用1987-2014年原型观测数据,分析粗细颗粒在时间和空间的输移过程,并以水文站作为划分单元探讨其成因.三峡水库蓄水后坝下游d≤0.125 mm(细颗粒)各粒径组沙量沿程递增,并小于蓄水前均值;d0.125 mm(粗颗粒)沙量在宜昌—监利河段得到补给,其下游为淤积趋势,其中2003-2007年至监利站恢复程度最大.在成因上:(1)宜昌—沙市河段,河床粗化限制了粗细颗粒泥沙补给,其中细颗粒补给受制于总水量,粗颗粒受制于大流量持续天数和量值;(2)沙市—监利河段,粗细颗粒补给均受制于总水量;(3)监利—螺山河段,洞庭湖入汇对细颗粒补给起决定作用,河床补给量中洪水年大于中枯水年,粗颗粒为淤积趋势,且中洪水年淤积量小于中枯水年;(4)螺山—汉口河段,细颗粒增加受河床补给决定,2008-2014年补给强度弱于2003-2007年,2010年前后粗颗粒泥沙由淤转冲,与大流量持续天数和量值增加有关;(5)汉口—九江河段,细颗粒泥沙淤积,粗颗粒因河床冲刷得到补给,大水年补给量高于枯水;(6)九江—大通河段,鄱阳湖入汇和河床补给对细颗粒增加的贡献比例为1∶2.82,河床冲刷对粗颗粒泥沙起补给作用,受大流量持续天数和量值影响.     

黄河尾闾段一维耦合水沙数学模型研究及其应用

小浪底水库于1999年运用以后,该河道经历了长时间持续冲刷过程.为掌握小浪底水库运用后黄河尾闾段洪水演进特点及河床冲淤规律,采用一维水沙数学模型研究是一条重要的途径.本研究首先采用浑水控制方程,建立了一维耦合水沙数学模型,并利用2003年利津-西河口段汛期实测水沙及汛前断面地形资料对该模型进行率定,计算的流量、水位及含沙量等过程与实测值吻合较好;然后采用2015年利津—汊3段汛期实测资料对该模型进行验证,结果显示水位与冲淤量计算值与实测值较为符合;最后基于2015年实测洪水过程,计算了若干组不同断面间距下的洪水演进及冲淤过程,分析了不同断面间距对沿程水位及河段冲淤量等计算结果的影响,结果表明:采用不同断面间距对水位计算结果影响较小,而对冲淤量计算结果会产生一定影响;在河段水沙及冲淤特性复杂的情况下,采用一维数学水沙模型计算时应考虑断面间距的选择.     

三峡水库运行对洞庭湖水位影响分析

洞庭湖的水情是长江和四水共同作用的结果,三峡蓄水运行必将导致洞庭湖的水情变化.本文利用BP神经网络对洞庭湖出口城陵矶站的水位过程进行模拟,以区分城陵矶水位变化中三峡的影响分量.模型训练阶段以三峡出库日均流量、洞庭湖四水合成日均流量为输入,城陵矶站的日水位过程为输出,应用阶段用三峡入库流量代替出库流量,从而还原自然状态下...     

近60年洞庭湖水位演变态势研究

辨析洞庭湖历史水位演变态势对保护湖泊生态系统健康运转以及确保长江中下游防洪安全和水资源利用均至关重要。为了定量评估洞庭湖近60年来水位变化特征、程度及规律,基于洞庭湖鹿角、杨柳潭和南咀水文站1961—2020年逐日水位监测数据,应用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析法、累积距平法、滑动t检验法等方法对洞庭湖水位变化趋势性、周期性、突变性进行分析,进而采用IHA-RVA法综合评价洞庭湖突变年前后各站点水位改变度和整体水位改变度。研究结果表明:(1) 1961—2020年,鹿角站和杨柳潭站年均水位呈上升趋势,南咀站年均水位呈下降趋势;3个站点水位周期性变化较为明显,呈现4～5个时间尺度的周期变化规律,第一主周期为55～56年;鹿角站水位突变年份为1979、2003年,杨柳潭站水位突变年份为1978、2003年,南咀站水位突变年份为2003年,综合确定2003年为3个站点突变年份。(2)通过分析突变前后3个站点的水位、时间、频率、延时和改变率5组32个水位指标改变度,发现杨柳潭站水位改变度大于鹿角站和南咀站,鹿角、杨柳潭、南咀站的整体水位改变度分别为43%、48%、42%,均属于中度改...     

基于长短时记忆神经网络的鄱阳湖水位预测

湖泊水位是维持其生态系统结构、功能和完整性的基础.鄱阳湖受流域"五河"和长江来水双重影响,水位变化复杂.为了准确预测鄱阳湖水位变化,采用长短时记忆神经网络方法(LSTM)构建了鄱阳湖水位预测模型.该模型以赣江、抚河、信江、饶河和修水"五河"入湖流量和长江干流流量作为输入条件,预测鄱阳湖湖区不同代表站(湖口、星子、都昌、吴城和康山)的水位过程.研究以1956—1980年的水文时间序列数据作为训练集,1981—2000年作为验证集,探讨了LSTM模型输入时间窗、隐藏神经元数目、初始学习率等模型参数对预测精度的影响,并确定了鄱阳湖水位预测模型的最优参数.结果表明,采用LSTM神经网络方法可基于流域"五河"和长江来水量历时数据合理预测鄱阳湖不同湖区的水位过程,五站水位预测的均方根误差为0.41～0.50 m,纳什效率系数和决定系数达0.96～0.98.为考察模型训练数据集对鄱阳湖水位预测结果的影响,进一步选取了随机5年(1956—1960年)的资料和5个典型水文年(1954年、1973年、1974年、1977年和1978年)的日均流量资料来训练模型.结果显示随机5年资料作为训练数据的预测精度要差于典型年水文资料训练得到的模型,尤其是洪、枯水位的预测;由于典型水文年数据量仍远低于20年的资料,故其总体预测精度要略低于采用20年资料训练的模型.建议应用这类基于数据驱动的模型时,应该尽可能多选取具有代表性的资料来训练.     

洞庭湖近30a水位时空演变特征及驱动因素分析

洞庭湖地处北亚热带季风湿润气候区,水情时空变化尤为明显.为了探明洞庭湖水位时空演变特征,以洞庭湖6个水位站(城陵矶、鹿角、营田、杨柳潭、南咀、小河咀)、出入湖流量("三口"总入湖流量、"四水"总入湖流量、城陵矶出湖流量)和长江干流流量(宜昌、螺山)等1985-2014年逐日数据为基础,通过构建泰森多边形计算湖泊水位,运用Morlet小波分析、层次聚类分析和地统计理论研究湖泊水位的周期性变化规律及空间分布格局和自相关性.研究结果表明:洞庭湖水位变化具有典型的季节性,且年际变化具有28和22 a的多时间尺度特征;水位空间分布格局呈现出小河咀、南咀、杨柳潭(Group 1)以及城陵矶、鹿角、营田(Group 2)两种聚类,且在不同水文季节的空间自相关性依次表现为丰水期退水期涨水期枯水期.通过建立两类水位在不同水文季节与径流量的多元逐步回归模型揭示了洞庭湖水位时空演变的驱动因素,其中Group 1水位演变主要受长江干流水文情势的影响,Group 2水位演变由出入湖径流量和长江干流径流量共同作用,并随着不同水文季节江湖关系的改变以及湖泊自身水力联系的变化而变化.研究结果对于科学认识洞庭湖水位的时空演变规律以及湖泊生态系统保护和水资源的规划、管理与调控具有重要意义.     

三峡工程运用后城陵矶-武汉河段河床调整及崩岸特点

为研究近期城汉河段河床调整及崩岸特点,利用实测水沙及地形等资料,采用河段平均的方法,计算了城汉河段断面形态的调整过程,主要包括平滩河槽形态调整及其与前期水沙条件之间的关系.计算结果表明：城汉河段平滩河宽由2003年的1710 m增加至2016年的1732 m,增幅为1.28%,平滩水深由2003年的16.47 m增加至2016年的17.95 m,增幅为9.0%;白螺矶、界牌、簰洲及武汉等河段河床调整以纵向冲深为主,但陆溪口河段河床调整横向展宽与纵向冲深同步发展;2006-2016年城汉河段多年平均崩退速率为5.5 m/a,崩岸总长19.6 km,占岸线总长的8.3%,右岸占55.3%.簰洲河段岸线崩长占城汉河段岸线崩退总长的75.9%.此外还分析了河床边界与水沙条件等因素对重点河段（簰洲河段）崩岸过程的影响,来水来沙条件占主导地位,局部区域崩岸的发生依赖于河床边界条件;建立了典型断面平滩河宽与前期水沙条件之间的经验关系,较好地反映了水沙条件变化对崩岸过程的影响.     

Recent variation in reach‐scale bankfull discharge in the Lower Yellow River

Bankfull discharge is a key parameter in the context of river engineering and geomorphology, as an indicator of flood discharge capacity in alluvial rivers, and varying in response to the incoming flow and sediment regimes. Bankfull channel dimensions have significantly adjusted along the Lower Yellow River (LYR) due to recent channel degradation, caused by the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, which has led to longitudinal variability in cross‐sectional bankfull discharges. Therefore, it is more representative to describe the flood discharge capacity of the LYR, using the concept of reach‐averaged bankfull discharge. Previous simple mean methods to estimate reach‐scale bankfull discharge cannot meet the condition of flow continuity or account for the effect of different spacing between two sections. In this study, a general method to calculate cross‐sectional bankfull discharge using the simulated stage‐discharge relation is outlined briefly, and an integrated method is then proposed for estimating reach‐scale bankfull discharge. The proposed method integrates a geometric mean based on the log‐transformation with a weighted average based on the spacing between two consecutive sections, which avoids the shortcomings of previous methods. The post‐flood reach‐scale bankfull discharges in three different channel‐pattern reaches of the LYR were estimated annually during the period from 1999 to 2010 using the proposed method, based on surveyed post‐flood profiles at 91 sedimentation sections and the measured hydrological data at seven hydrometric sections. The calculated results indicate that: (i) the estimated reach‐scale bankfull discharges can effectively represent the flood discharge capacity of different reaches, with their ranges of variation being less than those of typical cross‐sectional bankfull discharges; and (ii) the magnitude of the reach‐scale bankfull discharge in each reach can respond well to the accumulative effect of incoming flow and sediment conditions. Finally, empirical relationships for different reaches in the LYR were developed between the reach‐scale bankfull discharge and the previous four‐year average discharge and incoming sediment coefficient during flood seasons, with relatively high correlation coefficients between them being obtained, and the reach‐scale bankfull discharges in different reaches predicted by the delayed response model were also presented for a comparison. These relations for the prediction of reach‐scale bankfull discharges were validated using the cross‐sectional profiles and hydrological data measured in 2011. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shrinking of Dongting Lake and its weakening connection with the Yangtze River:Analysis of the impact on flooding

In this article,the shrinking of Dongting Lake and its progressively weakening connection with the Yangtze River and their impact on flooding before and after the implementation of the Three Gorges Project are analyzed.In recent decades,human activity combined with natural processes has altered the flow of the middle reach channel of the Yangtze River and interfered with its connection with Dongting Lake.This has resulted in progressively more frequent flooding in the area.This study uses hydrological data to analyze the annual maximum discharge and annual maximum stage development of the middle reach of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake.In recent decades before the Three Gorges Project became operational in 2003,the annual maximum discharge and the maximum stage recorded in the middle reach of the river downstream of Dongting Lake had increased,a result of the weakening of the flood regulation function of Dongting Lake;the annual maximum stage at Luoshan station(downstream,close to the confluence of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake) had risen by about 2.0 m during 1955-2005,(1.5 m attributed to annual maximum discharge and 0.5 m to river channel deposition).Observational data recorded after the Three Gorges Project was put into operation in 2003,it can be seen that deposition in the Dongting Lake has nearly ceased and the lake's connection with the Yangtze River is stable.It is evident that the flood regulation function of Dongting Lake will continue,and that during the lifetime of the Three Gorges Project,the flood situation in the middle reach of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake will remain stable.     

A STUDY ON THE FLOOD STORAGE CAPACITY IN DONGTING LAKE

1 INTRODUCTION Dongting Lake lies south of the middle reach of the Yangtze River in Hunan and Hubei provinces (Fig. 1). On the north side of Dongting Lake, there are the three diversion openings of the Yangtze River named Songzi, Taiping, and Ouchi, and, on the south and west sides, there are the four tributary streams named Xiang, Zi, Yuan, and Li Rivers. The flow of the three diversion openings and the four tributary streams runs into Dongting Lake, and runs out at Chenglingji a…     

长江流域降水径流的年代际变化分析

应用1951-2001年长江流域年、季降水量资料、1885-2001年梅雨量资料以及一百多年以来长江重要控制站宜昌、汉口、大通年径流量资料,对长江流域降水径流的年代际变化、气候转折以及降水径流的变化趋势进行了分析研究.反映出长江流域夏季降水将有更加集中的趋势,即降水时间更集中、强度趋向于更大,对防洪不利.据趋势预测,宜昌、汉口径流量有减少的趋势,大通径流量有增加的趋势.     

Downstream geomorphic impact of the Three Gorges Dam: With special reference to the channel bars in the Middle Yangtze River

The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has altered downstream flow–sediment regimes and led to significant changes in the morphodynamic processes in the Middle Yangtze River (MYR). However, due to the complexity of this large river, the driving forces and implication of the morphodynamic processes remain insufficiently understood. This study selected two typical meandering and bar-braided reaches, the Zhicheng (ZC) and Shashi (SS) reach, to examine their responses to the TGD operation. The results showed that in the post-dam period significant channel erosion occurred with a higher erosion rate in the ZC reach (closer to the TGD) compared with the SS reach. The area of the Guanzhou mid-channel bar (ZC reach) and the Sanba mid-channel bar (SS reach) shrank by 30 and 90% from 2003 to 2015, respectively. The increased fluvial erosion intensity due to the reduction in suspended sediment concentration (SSC) drove the shrinkage of the mid-channel bars, as demonstrated by empirical relationships between bar geometry and fluvial erosion intensity. An increase of 22 days per year in the frequency of post-dam medium-to-high discharges (10 000–25 000 m³ s⁻¹), and associated with the reduction in SSC, jointly led to the greater erosion at the convex (inner) banks than the concave (outer) banks, which has negatively affected the designed navigation channels at the concave banks by decreasing their discharge partitioning ratios. The post-dam water level at a given high discharge (>25 000 m³ s⁻¹) showed no evident change, but the water level at a given low discharge (<10 000 m³ s⁻¹) decreased. The reduction in water levels at low flows can affect water supply and riverine ecosystems in the MYR. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

APPLICATION OF NEURAL NETWORK IN FLOOD PREDICTION

IINTRODUCTIONIntherecentdecadesfrequentflooddisasterscausedseriousdamagesandclaimedthousandsoflives,suchasthe1998floodintheYangtzeRiverandthe1996floodintheYellowRiver.The1998floodintheYangtzeandtheSonghuaRiversbroughtdirectlossesofmorethan$30billions.Lowdischargehighstageisthemaincharacterofthefloods.Forexample,thehighestfloodstagein1998wasI.sinhigheranddischargewas14000m3/slowerthanthosein1954atLuoshanStationoftheVangtzeRiver.Anewmodelisrequiredtobedevelopedforaccuratepredictionoffl…     

Characteristics of river discharge and its indirect effect on the tidal bore in the Qiantang River,China

Based on field data of river discharge, tide, tidal bore, and riverbed topography, the characteristics of river discharge, the effect of river discharge on riverbed erosion and sedimentation, and the feedback effect of riverbed erosion and sedimentation on the tide and tidal bore in the Qiantang River are analyzed. The results show that the inter-annual and seasonal variation of river discharge in the Qiantang River is noticeable, while the seasonal distribution of river discharge tends to be un...     

三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水期调度运行对洞庭湖蓄水量变化的影响

长江干流与洞庭湖存在复杂的并联型分汇关系,当三峡水库调度改变长江径流过程时,会引起洞庭湖年内槽蓄量的变化,对于洞庭湖地区防洪、水资源配置和水环境保护产生显著的影响.本文建立了枝城至螺山站的荆江-洞庭湖水流模型,利用2008-2017年的三峡水库实际调度日数据,分析有、无三峡水库调度两种情况下洞庭湖槽蓄量的变化过程,同时利用建库前和近期的水位流量关系反映河道过流能力,分析了河道调整的影响.结果表明:由河道调整引起的槽蓄量变化在汛前消落期、汛期、汛末蓄水期和枯水期分别为-3.06%、0.12%、-0.01%和-13.31%.有三峡水库影响情况下,汛前消落期由于荆江"三口"进入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流增加23.94%,洞庭湖出口处城陵矶多年平均水位升高0.53 m,阻碍了洞庭湖出流,洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量增长13.30%;汛期由于荆江"三口"分流量减少3.54%,城陵矶水位降低0.02 m导致出湖流量增多,因此洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少0.20%;在汛末蓄水期,荆江"三口"分入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流量减少37.18%,城陵矶多年平均水位降低1.33 m,导致出湖流量增多,因而洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少27.74%;在枯水期,荆江"三口"多年平均总径流量增加5.61%,城陵矶多年平均水位上升0.07 m,最终洞庭湖多年平均枯期槽蓄量增加2.96%.