植被状态指数VCI与几种气象干旱指数的对比——以河南省为例

使用1982-2006年GIMMS AVHRR NDVI数据集与同期的CI、K、Pa、SPI、Z、PDSI等干旱指数做了对比分析, 讨论了河南省植被状态指数VCI对气象干旱的滞后效应及干旱监测能力. 结果表明: VCI指数与气象干旱指数的相关性受不同下垫面的影响较大, 农地的VCI与气象干旱指数相关性要明显高于林地, 农地VCI与气象干旱指数呈现正相关关系. 在河南省不同的作物生长阶段, VCI对气象干旱有着不同的滞后效应, 其中, 3-5月份冬小麦生长期VCI对气象条件的反应滞后1~3个月, 7、9月份夏玉米生长期VCI对气象条件的反应滞后1月. 总体上看, 结合前期的气象数据, VCI对河南省气象干旱有一定的指示作用和监测能力.     

干旱灾害对干旱气候变化的响应

通过分析中国北方50 a来的降水资料,结果表明:干旱气候变化的主要特征表现在20世纪90年代夏季降水量有明显的减少趋势,干旱化趋势主要发生在北方,主要包括河北、山西、山东和西北地区东部.西北地区西部降水有明显增多趋势,西北地区东部降水量持续偏少,干旱连年发生.干旱气候的产生带来了严重的干旱灾害,无论从全国或甘肃省的近50 a来干旱灾害可以看出,90年代的干旱发生最为频繁,干旱灾情最为严重,2000年是干旱最严重的一年.干旱气候变化引发干旱化趋势明显,其影响程度非常严重和深远,应重视和加强干旱气候与干旱灾害的监测预测和防御对策的研究.     

50 a来我国干湿气候界线的空间变化分析

采用干燥度指数为干湿气候区的划分标准, 通过近50 a来年降水量干湿气候界线与干燥度干湿气候界线变动对比分析, 结果表明: 在气候变暖, 降水区域差异性显著的情况下, 我国干旱/半干旱分界线与半干旱/湿润分界线也表现出显著的区域差异性, 且具有"U型"分布特征. 在东北北部, 250 mm年雨量线为干旱/半干旱分界线, 450 mm年雨量线为半干旱/湿润分界线, 半干旱气候向西退缩, 范围缩小; 在东北南部、华北区与河套地区, 300 mm年雨量线为干旱/半干旱分界线, 700 mm年雨量线作为半干旱/湿润分界线, 干旱气候与半干旱气候向东南方向扩展, 空间范围在扩大, 成为"U型"分布的凸出部位; 在西南区与河套以西的西北东部, 250 mm年雨量线为干旱/半干旱分界线, 500 mm年雨量线为半干旱/湿润分界线, 干旱半干旱气候变化不大. 决定我国干湿气候界线空间变化的主要因素是由西太平洋副热带高压位置与强度导致的东南季风、孟加拉弯暖流所导致的西南季风以及西风环流等综合作用的降水量的区域差异性.     

中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性

利用一个简单的月水量平衡模型,模拟了位于中国不同气候区的21个典型流域的径流量过程,采用假定的气候情景,分析了河川径流量对不同气候变化的敏感性。结果表明,所采用的月水量平衡模型能够较好地模拟不同气候区的月流量过程,21个典型流域的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数大多超过65%,水量平衡误差也均控制在1%以内。黄河以北干旱半干旱地区的典型流域径流量对气温和降水变化的响应敏感,其次为华中、华南半湿润区和湿润区,西部高寒山区径流对气候变化的响应最弱。因此,中国适应气候变化的重点应集中在干旱半干旱地区。     

青海湖布哈河流域树轮宽度指数与NDVI植被指数的关系

利用来自青海湖流域乌兰和天峻的树轮指数和1982-2003年逐月标准化植被指数(NDVI)数据及气候数据, 在分析树轮指数及草地NDVI与气候因子关系的基础上, 探讨了树轮宽度指数序列与青海湖布哈河流域草地NDVI之间的关系.结果表明: 树轮宽度指数及草地NDVI主要受6-8月份的水热条件的影响, 温度与同期树轮宽度指数及草地NDVI具有较高的正相关, 而降水的影响存在滞后性.树木年轮指数序列与6-8月草地NDVI有显著的相关关系, 与8月份的NDVI相关性最强.树轮指数与草地NDVI间的显著相关性为研究该地区草地过去的动态变化提供了基础, 利用乌兰和天峻的两条树轮指数重建了8月份NDVI的千年变化.     

大凌河流域1998～2019年NDVI时空变化及其对气温和降水的响应

利用9个国家气象站数据和1998～2019年SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI数据，运用趋势分析、偏相关分析和复相关分析方法，研究大凌河流域22年来NDVI时空演变规律及其与气温和降水之间的关系。研究发现：(1)研究区22年来植被覆盖整体变好，90.8%的区域NDVI呈增加趋势，不同季节变化趋势各异，夏季NDVI增长率最高，春季最低。(2)大凌河上游地区NDVI总体呈缓慢稳定增长状态，中下游地区增长与减退并存；(3)研究区NDVI总体与气温呈负相关、与降水量呈正相关，且NDVI与年降水量关系更密切。(4)研究区植被覆盖降水驱动型占总面积的4.33%，气温驱动型占比为0.03%，降水、气温共同驱动型占比为2.73%。     

气候因子影响天山北坡植被指数时空分布研究

利用2000—2004年逐月的MODIS归一化植被指数(NDVI)数字影像,计算了天山北坡NDVI动态变化与气温、降水变化的相关关系。在此基础上,分析了NDVI变化的区域分布规律,探讨气温、降水对NDVI动态变化的驱动作用,研究了NDVI变化的气候因子驱动的区域分布规律,并据此对天山北坡植被NDVI变化的气候因子驱动进行了分区。结果表明,研究区的植被状况主要受气温和降水的复合影响,气温主导影响区域主要分布在天山中高覆盖度林区和绿洲农区过渡带以及NDVI≤0.25的荒漠区区域内。      

西北非湿润区毛细阻滞覆盖层防渗性能验证与长期服役高危易渗气象段分析

为研究西北非湿润区气候特征和毛细阻滞覆盖层高危易渗气象段,掌握该地自然气候条件下引发毛细阻滞覆盖层渗漏的气象机制,总结分析了西北干旱、半干旱气候区50年的降水、蒸腾蒸发和温度等气候特征。在西北某填埋场开展了毛细阻滞覆盖层足尺极端降水试验,验证了覆盖层在极端偶然降水事件下的防渗储水性能。耦合气候条件开展了土质覆盖层长期防渗性能分析,鉴别筛选出了西北干旱、半干旱气候区诱发渗漏的高危气象段,揭示了高危易渗气候段引发渗漏的气象机制。结果表明：（1）西北干旱、半干旱气候区4-11月降水多,12月-次年4月降水少,冬干夏湿,雨-热同期,利于土质覆盖层水分的存储-释放。（2）西北非湿润区极端偶然连续强降水量阈值在56.1～118.5mm之间,现场覆盖层极端降水试验累计降水量194.85 mm,土层存储量148.22 mm。在该区极端偶然连续强降水条件下毛细阻滞覆盖层能满足防渗标准。（3）长期服役中西北干旱和半干旱气候区,8-11月是毛细阻滞覆盖层的高危易渗气象段,11-12月次之,1-7月渗漏可能最低。该气候区土质覆盖层防渗设计和填埋场运营-管理-维护工作中,8-11月为关键气象段,建议进行重点校核...     

IMERG卫星降水数据在嘉陵江流域的干旱监测效用评估

针对嘉陵江流域存在雨热同期,水旱灾害频发的现象,为快速且准确地把握流域内降水与干旱情况,利用覆盖范围广且分辨率高的网格化IMERG卫星降水数据对嘉陵江流域进行多时空尺度反演,并基于卫星降水数据采用标准化降水指数(SPI)对流域实行干旱监测。结果表明：1)根据分类指标与统计指标的计算结果,三种卫星降水数据中的IMERG-F能更准确地反映流域内的日降水量,与地面降水数据CC达0.737,整体高估地面降水2.6%,具有在干旱监测方面的应用潜力。2)三种卫星降水数据驱动的SPI指数在干旱监测方面存在一定的差异,IMERG-F驱动的SPI指数与地面降水数据驱动的SPI指数保持较高的一致性(CC>0.9),较近实时产品IMERG-F更能准确地呈现出流域的干湿特征。3)卫星识别降水与干旱监测的能力受地形地貌的影响,IMERG卫星降水数据在平原丘陵地带具有较好的适用性。     

基于MODIS数据的山东省土壤墒情遥感动态监测与分析

干旱灾害是我国主要的自然灾害之一。近年来,连续性、极端干旱灾害时有发生,对我国粮食安全、饮水安全和生态安全造成严重威胁。土壤墒情是旱情监测的重要指标,遥感技术具有观测范围广、实时性强以及成本低廉等优势,可以广泛应用于土壤墒情监测。本文分析了土壤墒情与地表参数NDVI(归一化植被指数)和LJST(地表温度)的关系,建立了基于NDVI和LST、并考虑土壤类型的土壤墒情遥感监测模型。利用该模型,基于MODIS遥感影像和地面实测墒情,对2010年10月到2011年5月山东省旱情进行了动态监测。监测结果显示:山东省的旱情经历了不断加重,再到逐渐缓解。然后又局部加重。最终全部缓解的过程,干旱核心区为鲁南地区,与实际情况一致。     

Application of meteorological and vegetation indices for evaluation of drought impact: a case study for Rajasthan, India

Drought is a serious climatic condition that affects nearly all climatic zones worldwide, with semi-arid regions being especially susceptible to drought conditions because of their low annual precipitation and sensitivity to climate changes. Drought indices such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI) using meteorological data and vegetation indices from satellite data were developed for quantifying drought conditions. Remote sensing of semi-arid vegetation can provide vegetation indices which can be used to link drought conditions when correlated with various meteorological data based drought indices. The present study was carried out for drought monitoring for three districts namely Bhilwara, Kota and Udaipur of Rajasthan state in India using SPI, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), water supply vegetation index (WSVI) and vegetation condition index (VCI) derived from the Advanced Very High resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). The SPI was computed at different time scales of 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months using monthly rainfall data. The NDVI and WSVI were correlated to the SPI and it was observed that for the three stations, the correlation coefficient was high for different time scales. Bhilwara district having the best correlation for the 9-month time scale shows late response while Kota district having the best correlation for 1-month shows fast response. On the basis of the SPI analysis, it was found that the area was worst affected by drought in the year 2002. This was validated on the basis of NDVI, WSVI and VCI. The study clearly shows that integrated analysis of ground measured data and satellite data has a great potential in drought monitoring.     

中国西北地区的干旱与旱灾——变化趋势与对策

干旱与水资源短缺是西北地区的基本环境特征。西北地区在气候变暖的背景下,区域降水量出现了明显的区域差异:西北西部的新疆地区,20世纪80年代以来降水量增加;西北东部大部分地区降水量持续减少,干旱、连旱趋势增加;黄河流域西北区域降水量减少,干旱化趋势最为显著。在气候干旱化增强的背景下,新疆地区总体上经过70年代的枯水期后,在80年代中期开始较大范围内径流量呈现增加趋势;河西东部、西北东部的黄河流域等地区,70年代以来径流持续减少,大部分河流枯水频率在78%以上,水文干旱化趋势显著。水资源的开发利用、水土保持以及土地利用等人类活动使得西北地区水文干旱进一步加剧。干旱是西北地区最为严重的自然灾害之一,受干旱化气候和水文变化趋势的影响,黄河流域和内陆流域干旱灾害不断加剧,近50a干旱灾害受灾面积急剧扩张,旱灾造成的农业粮食损失不断增加。从创新水资源开发利用途径与管理等角度,提出了提高气候变化的地区适应性和区域水-经济系统旱灾抵御能力的对策与建议。     

The changing characteristics of drought in China from 1982 to 2005

Drought is one of the most detrimental natural disasters. Studying the changing characteristics of drought is obviously of great importance to achieve the sustainable use of water resources at river basin scales. In this paper, the satellite-based Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Vegetation Health Index (VH) were firstly calculated by using NDVI and brightness of the Global Vegetation Index dataset derived from Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer for China in growing seasons over 1982–2005. Then, the long-term VCI and VH data were employed to study the variation of droughts in the ten basins covering the whole country. The linear trend of each pixel showed that most parts of China were getting wetter in growing seasons, and the drought areas defined by the number of drought pixels have decreased in most basins. The increasing trend of basin averaged values of VCI and VH also indicates the whole country was generally getting wetter. At last, to better understand the two remote sensing drought indices, the response of the growing-season VCI and VH was compared to that of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and 6-month Standard Precipitation Index. Significant spatial variability of the relationship between the VCI, VH, and the station-based meteorological drought indices was shown, and some more closely related areas were found. The study will be useful for water resources management for each basin in the future.     

1981-2006年西北干旱区NDVI时空分布变化对水热条件的响应

气候是植被变化的重要驱动因子. 利用1981-2006年GIMMS归一化植被指数（NDVI）时间序列数据,结合68个气象站降水、气温数据和DEM地形数据等资料,研究分析了西北干旱区植被活动的年、季变化和空间差异. 结果显示：在1981-2006年的26 a,西北干旱区植被的覆盖率增加了4.5%,年平均NDVI增加了3.2%;植被的生长季延长,主要表现在生长季的推迟. 从总体来说,植被覆盖率、生长季和NDVI值在2000年以前显著增加,而在2000年以后都呈现减小的趋势;其中,减少明显的区域是在伊犁河谷、中天山及平原区,在河流上游山区或源头以及部分河流两岸呈现增加态势;在年际变化上,大部分区域的气温、降水与NDVI相关性不强. 而年平均气温在4.58 ℃以下低温区和年降水在180 mm以上的相对湿润区,气温和降水都呈现正相关;在季节变化上,NDVI值在春季和秋季与温度相关显著,而夏季与降水相关性强. 2000年以后,植被覆盖率和NDVI值开始出现降低趋势与气温持续升高、降水量增幅下降有关.     

黑河下游额济纳绿洲荒漠植被与地下水位埋深的 定量关系

干旱区植被生长与地下水的依存关系是生态水文地质学研究的热点之一。由于降水稀少,中国西北地区植被的生长发育与地下水的关系极为密切,从大尺度上研究地下水变化的生态效应问题对生态环境的保护和恢复具有重要的意义。借助遥感方法,结合地下水观测数据,在区域尺度上定量地研究了我国黑河下游额济纳绿洲荒漠植被发育与地下水埋深的关系。结果表明:适宜植被生长的地下水埋深范围约为2~5 m,当地下水埋深超过5.5 m时,由于植被根系缺水,不能维持冠层正常生长,几乎没有植被发育。     

Assessing vegetation dynamics in the Three-North Shelter Forest region of China using AVHRR NDVI data

The Three-North Shelter Forest Programme (TNSFP) covers 551 Chinese counties and an area of 4,069,000 km² mostly in arid and semi-arid regions. In this paper, we discuss the temporal and spatial changes in value of the normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI) in this region, and the relationships between NDVI and climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) based on NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies NDVI data with 8-km resolution from 1982 to 2006. During the past 25 years, the vegetation cover has generally increased in eastern regions of China and the oasis in the north piedmont of Tianshan Mountains, but has decreased northwest of Xinjiang and in the Hulunbeier Plateau. The multi-year monthly average NDVI distribution map showed that NDVI increased from April to August, but in the western and northern plateau areas, the lower temperatures and high altitude created a shorter growing season (1 or 2 months). The vegetation of the study area has generally increased in the regions covered by the TNSFP. Linear regression analysis of the vegetation cover showed an increasing trend over large areas. The largest annual growth rate per pixel (the slope of the regression) was 0.009; the largest negative annual change was −0.004. The correlation between NDVI and precipitation was higher than that between NDVI and temperature, suggesting that precipitation is the most important factor that affects NDVI changes in the study area, especially for temperate desert vegetation in northwestern China.     

银川平原植被生长与地下水关系研究

干旱区植被生长与地下水的关系是生态水文地质学研究的热点之一。西北内陆干旱地区降水稀少,植被的生长发育与地下水的关系极为密切,从大尺度上研究地下水变化的生态效应问题对生态环境的保护和恢复具有重要的意义。借助遥感方法,结合地下水观测数据,在区域尺度上定量地研究了中国银川平原地区地下水埋深及矿化度与植被生长的关系。结果表明:适宜植被生长的地下水埋深范围约为1~6m,当地下水位埋深为3.5m左右时,植被长势最好。而在水位埋深为3.5m左右的地区,植被生长的相对好坏又受地下水矿化度的影响。当地下水矿化度为0.9g/L时对该地区植被的生长最为有利。     

运用数学形态学方法探讨我国干旱-半干旱区降水的可能分布

我国北方干旱－半干旱区长期受水资源缺乏的影响，国民经济建设受到很大的制约。因此，研究干旱－半干旱区的水资源成为人们关注的重点。本文借助数学形态学方法，探讨了我国干旱－半干旱区降水在几种气候变化条件下的可能分布，揭示出了西北地区环境最脆弱的地区是塔里木盆地南缘及其东侧的罗布泊、哈密、敦煌地区，同时也探讨了这些地区在降水增加或减少情况下的可能环境分布。     

The relationship between drought activity and vegetation cover in Northwest China from 1982 to 2013

We investigated drought activity and the relationship between drought and vegetation in Northwest China over the period 1982–2013 using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The indexes were, respectively, calculated from ground-based meteorological data and from remotely sensed satellite data. The spatial and temporal distributions of drought (SPEI) and of vegetation cover (NDVI) were compared using annual trends, and the relationships between these trends were analyzed. The results are: (1) Overall, Northwest China had a drought trend during the study period, although some a few regions show a significant wetness trend; (2) the mean annual NDVI fluctuates, but overall shows an increasing trend, particularly in some mountainous areas that have at least adequate water and vegetation cover, while unused land becomes degraded; (3) most regions show a positive correlation between SPEI and NDVI, although the western parts of the Tarim basin, Qaidam basin, and some regions in the southeastern part of study area show a negative correlation; and (4) the various regions respond differently to global climate change, but in general regions with more vegetation cover show increased vegetation growth, while regions with less vegetation cover are becoming degraded and thus more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.