Assessment of Creep Events as Potential Earthquake Precursors: Application to the Creeping Section of the San Andreas Fault, California

—We report the analysis of over 16 years of fault creep and seismicity data from part of the creeping section of the San Andreas fault to examine and assess the temporal association between creep events and subsequent earthquakes. The goal is to make a long-term evaluation of creep events as a potential earthquake precursor. We constructed a catalog of creep events from available digital creepmeter data and compared it to a declustered seismicity catalog for the area between San Juan Bautista and San Benito, California, for 1980 to 1996. For magnitude thresholds of 3.8 and above and time windows of 5 to 10 days, we find relatively high success rates (40% to 55% 'hits') but also very high false alarm rates (generally above 90%). These success rates are statistically significant (0.0007 < P < 0.04). We also tested the actual creep event catalog against two different types of synthetic seismicity catalogs, and found that creep events are followed closely in time by earthquakes from the real catalog far more frequently than the average for the synthetic catalogs, generally by more than two standard deviations. We find no identifiable spatial pattern between the creep events and earthquakes that are hit or missed. We conclude that there is a significant temporal correlation between creep events and subsequent small to moderate earthquakes, however that additional information (such as from other potential precursory phenomena) is required to reduce the false alarm rate to an acceptable level.     

2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震前后地震活动性

2014年8月3日在云南省鲁甸县发生M_S6.5地震,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失.关于鲁甸地震的起因,特别是鲁甸地震与溪洛渡水库之间的关系存在一些争议.分析中强地震前后地震活动性的变化可以为判断主震起源提供一定的依据.然而,由于鲁甸地震震中附近固定台站数目少、台站距离震中远及主震后尾波干扰等因素的影响,会造成地震目录的缺失,从而可能影响地震活动性的可靠分析.为了获得更加完备的地震目录,本文采用模板匹配方法对鲁甸地震前后小地震进行了搜索和识别.以台网目录中的541个事件作为模板,在主震之前33天到主震后5天的连续波形中识别出991个未在目录中列出的地震,使余震的完备震级从1.8降低到1.3.根据检测目录得到主震前33天内的b值为1.04±0.18,余震的b值在震后5天内由0.5左右逐渐上升至0.9附近并保持稳定;根据2009年到主震发生前的台网目录得到该区域的背景b值为0.93±0.04.即鲁甸地震前后区域地震活动b值均与背景b值接近,这与典型水库诱发的中强震具有的b值特征不相符.同时通过进一步分析台网目录,未发现溪洛渡水库蓄水前后研究区域内的地震活动性存在明显变化,这也与典型水库诱发地震区域的地震活动性特征不相符.综合以上结果,我们认为2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震不具有典型水库诱发地震的特征.

     

Diurnal periodicity of earthquakes in Greece

The catalog of earthquakes that happened in Greece over the period of 1964 to 2008 was used for the analysis of their diurnal periodicity in this region. The quality of the catalog was examined with the defining of the representativeness levels of earthquakes in different selections. The earthquakes, including relatively strong events with the magnitude M ≥ 4.0, demonstrate diurnal periodicity with seasonal differences in their course reflected in their higher summer seismicity as compared with the winter one.     

Universality of the Seismic Moment-frequency Relation

—We analyze the seismic moment-frequency relation in various depth ranges and for different seismic regions, using Flinn-Engdahl's regionalization of global seismicity. Three earthquake lists of centroid-moment tensor data have been used the Harvard catalog, the USGS catalog, and the Huang et al. (1997) catalog of deep earthquakes. The results confirm the universality of the β-values and the maximum moment for shallow earthquakes in continental regions, as well as at and near continental boundaries. Moreover, we show that although fluctuations in earthquake size distribution increase with depth, the β-values for earthquakes in the depth range of 0–500 km exhibit no statistically significant regional variations. The regional variations are significant only for deep events near the 660 km boundary. For declustered shallow earthquake catalogs and deeper events, we show that the worldwide β-values have the same value of 0.60 ± 0.02. This finding suggests that the β-value is a universal constant. We investigate the statistical correlations between the numbers of seismic events in different depth ranges and the correlation of the tectonic deformation rate and seismic activity (the number of earthquakes above a certain threshold level per year). The high level of these correlations suggests that seismic activity indicates tectonic deformation rate in subduction zones. Combined with the universality of the β-value, this finding implies little if any variation in maximum earthquake seismic moment among various subduction zones. If we assume that earthquakes of maximum size are similar in different depth ranges and the seismic efficiency coefficient, χ, is close to 100% for shallow seismicity, then we can estimate χ for deeper earthquakes for intermediate earthquakes χ≈ 5%, and χ≈ 1% for deep events. These results may lead to new theoretical understanding of the earthquake process and better estimates of seismic hazard.     

上海及邻区微震检测与定位

本文利用基于图像处理器加速的模板匹配定位法（Graphics Processing Unit-based Match &; Locate,GPU-M&;L）和双差定位法（HypoDD）,对上海及邻区13个台站记录的2011年至2020年共10年的连续地震数据资料进行分析.首先从中国地震台网中心提供的146个地震事件目录中挑选了136个地震事件作为模板事件,使用模板匹配定位技术对上海及邻区10年的连续资料进行遗漏地震事件的扫描和检测,共识别出824个地震事件,约为台网中心提供地震目录事件数量的5.5倍.然后对识别出的地震事件通过深度去噪方法（DeepDenoiser）将信号与噪声分离,并对去噪后地震波形的频率和振幅特性分析来进一步确认识别出的地震事件.同时利用基于机器学习的震相拾取技术（PhaseNet）,对去噪后的333个地震事件进行了震相拾取.检测后的地震目录完备震级由台网目录的M_c1.0降为M_c0.8.最后利用双差定位法对479个地震事件进行精定位,精定位的结果显示,上海地区整体地震活动性较弱,地震的空间分布相对较为分散,定位后的地震事件部分集中于安角断凹,部分事件沿北东向的枫泾—川沙隐伏断裂带和沿北西向的南通—上海断裂分布.我们的结果,为研究上海及邻区地震活动性、地震发生灾害程度和风险性评价等,奠定了重要的数据基础.

     

Machine learning-based automatic construction of earthquake catalog for reservoir areas in multiple river basins of Guizhou province,China

Large reservoirs have the risk of reservoir induced seismicity. Accurately detecting and locating microseismic events are crucial when studying reservoir earthquakes. Automatic earthquake monitoring in reservoir areas is one of the effective measures for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, we first applied the automatic location workflow (named LOC-FLOW) to process 14-day continuous waveform data from several reservoir areas in different river basins of Guizhou province. Compared with the manual seismic catalog, the recall rate of seismic event detection using the workflow was 83.9%. Of the detected earthquakes, 88.9% had an onset time difference below 1 s, 81.8% has a deviation in epicenter location within 5 km, and 77.8% had a focal depth difference of less than 5 km, indicating that the workflow has good generalization capacity in reservoir areas. We further applied the workflow to retrospectively process continuous waveform data recorded from 2020 to the first half of 2021 in reservoir areas in multiple river basins of western Guizhou province and identified five times the number of seismic events obtained through manual processing. Compared with manual processing of seismic catalog, the completeness magnitude had decreased from 1.3 to 0.8, and a b-value of 1.25 was calculated for seismicity in western Guizhou province, consistent with the b-values obtained for the reservoir area in previous studies. Our results show that seismicity levels were relatively low around large reservoirs that were impounded over 15 years ago, and there is no significant correlation between the seismicity in these areas and reservoir impoundment. Seismicity patterns were notably different around two large reservoirs that were only impounded about 12 years ago, which may be explained by differences in reservoir storage capacity, the geologic and tectonic settings, hydrogeological characteristics, and active fault the reservoir areas. Prominent seismicity persisted around two large reservoirs that have been impounded for less than 10 years. These events were clustered and had relatively shallow focal depths. The impoundment of the Jiayan Reservoir had not officially begun during this study period, but earthquake location results suggested a high seismicity level in this reservoir area. Therefore, any seismicity in this reservoir area after the official impoundment deserves special attention.     

Some seismicity regularities of the Caucasus

Some aspects of the seismicity the Caucasus are considered based on the earthquake catalog from 1962 to 2011, which includes data on about 40000 seismic events with magnitudes from ?1.0 to 7.5. Correlation equations between the energy classes and magnitudes of the earthquakes are calculated. Interannual changes in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and seasonal cycles of seismic energy release are revealed.     

Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogues: an application to the Italian territory

The comprehensive understanding of earthquake source-physics under real conditions requires the study not of single faults as separate entities but rather of a seismically active region as a whole, accounting for the interaction among different structures. We define “seismic sample area” the most convenient region to be used as a natural laboratory for the study of seismic source physics. This coincides with the region where the average large magnitude seismicity is the highest. To this end, time and space future distributions of large earthquakes are to be estimated. Using catalog seismicity as an input, the rate of occurrence is not constant but appears generally biased by incompleteness in some parts of the catalog and possible nonstationarities in seismic activity. We present a statistical procedure which is capable, under a few mild assumptions, of both detecting nonstationarities in seismicity and finding the incomplete parts of a seismic catalog. The procedure is based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov nonparametric statistics, and can be applied without a priori assuming the parent distribution of the events. The efficiency of this procedure allows the analysis of small data sets. An application to the Italian territory is presented, using the most recent version of the ENEL seismic catalog. Seismic activity takes place in six well defined areas but only five of them have a number of events sufficient for analysis. Barring a few exceptions, seismicity is found stationary throughout the whole catalog span 1000–1980. The eastern Alps region stands out as the best “sample area”, with the highest average probability of event occurrence per time and area unit. Final objective of this characterization is to stimulate a program of intensified research.     

2013年3月涿鹿微震群遗漏地震事件检测和发震构造分析

震群活动时,短时间发生大量地震,不同地震事件的记录波形相互交叠影响,易造成地震目录的遗漏,对震群发震构造分析等研究带来不利的影响.本文针对2013年3月3日至5日在河北涿鹿发生的微震震群,利用匹配滤波技术,以地震台网观测目录所记录地震事件的波形为模板,在连续波形记录中搜索与模板相似的信号,从而检测台网目录遗漏的地震.利用波形互相关标定新检测到地震事件的P波和S波到时,进而对其震中位置和震级做出估计.计算结果显示,通过互相关扫描检测到52个地震台网常规分析遗漏的地震,约为地震目录给出的45个事件的1.16倍.检测到的遗漏地震震级估算为ML0.1~0.9,通过震级-频次统计分析,加入遗漏地震后地震目录的完整性在ML0.3~0.8范围内有较明显的改善.根据地震事件精定位结果,推测此次震群的发震构造为北西走向倾角较大的断层,施庄断裂为发震构造的可能性较大.     

The earthquake history of the Koryak Upland and the aftershock process of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">W</Emphasis></Subscript> 7.6 April 20(21), 2006 Olyutorskii earthquake

We investigated the seismicity in the aftershock area of a great earthquake occurring on April 20, 2006 (21:04 LT) in the area of the Koryak Autonomous Okrug. This analysis of the aftershock process was based on a complete catalog of the earthquakes that were recorded during April–May 2006 by the regional network of seismic stations operated by the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences. We also made use of a catalog of low magnitude events for May 2–17 as recorded by a mobile seismic network deployed in the rupture zone. We provide a review of seismicity for the Koryak Upland for the period of instrumental observations in the 20th and early 21st centuries.     

Spatio-temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

— The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AMR. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.     

利用波形互相关方法识别分析灌县—安县断裂重复地震

以中国地震台网中心地震目录中的事件为模板地震,通过滑动窗口的波形互相关方法对布设在灌县—安县断裂周边17个流动地震台的连续地震记录进行处理,识别M_L0.0以上的重复地震. 然后使用结合波形互相关技术的双差算法对这些地震进行重定位,获得了243次地震的重定位结果. 结果表明: 在研究时段内,灌县—安县断裂的地震活动性呈减弱趋势; 地震震源的优势分布深度为5—15 km,震源深度剖面显示地震呈高角度向西倾斜分布; 地震震中沿NE向分布,与龙门山前山断裂的走向基本一致; 研究区内南、 北两段的地震活动性及b值存在差异,这可能与龙门山断裂带中段区域应力方向由南到北发生的WNW向到ENE向转换的构造作用密切相关.      

模板匹配滤波技术在地震数据处理中的应用

模板匹配滤波技术(Matched Filter Technique,MFT)是一种近几年发展迅速的可用于检测遗漏信号的算法,在图像识别、行星探测等众多领域均有广泛应用。在地震学中,该技术通过扫描连续波形找出模板事件附近发生的、与模板事件相关性较好的遗漏地震事件,可用于完善地震目录,实现对地震活动性以及区域应力状态的更好刻画。本文综述了模板匹配滤波技术在地震数据处理中的应用,首先概述基本原理,其次介绍该方法用于探测各类地震事件的实例,包括前震和余震、远程动态触发地震、诱发地震和非火山震颤等,最后展望了用于提高算法效率及探测精度的一些改进方法。     

2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震序列活动特征分析

中强地震序列的主震发生后,短时间内受台站距震中较远、尾波干扰和波形重叠等因素的影响,往往会遗漏大量的地震,而地震目录的完整性会直接影响到震后趋势判定和余震序列特征分析的科学性和可靠性。本文利用基于GPU加速的模板匹配方法对2017年8月1～12日的连续波形进行扫描计算,检测九寨沟M_S7.0地震前后遗漏的地震事件,选取台网目录中信噪比较高的1033个地震事件作为模板,在主震前7天至震后5天期间识别出4854个检测地震事件,为台网可定位目录的3.3倍,除去对台网单台地震事件的修正外,还检测到1797个遗漏地震事件,将完备震级从1.6级降低到1.4级。基于补充了遗漏地震的完整地震目录,对2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震序列活动特征进行分析。结果表明,前震序列在主震前短时间内出现了地震活动的密集增强,b值也显示为低值状态,可能是深部断层发生破裂之前的加速蠕动的结果。随着时间的推移,余震序列的完备震级逐渐下降并趋于稳定,b值存在缓慢升高的趋势,未来较长时期内余震序列仍将处于持续衰减的状态。     

Recurrence of Large Earthquakes: Bayesian Inference from Catalogs in the Presence of Magnitude Uncertainties

We present a Bayesian method that allows continuous updating the aperiodicity of the recurrence time distribution of large earthquakes based on a catalog with magnitudes above a completeness threshold. The approach uses a recently proposed renewal model for seismicity and allows the inclusion of magnitude uncertainties in a straightforward manner. Errors accounting for grouped magnitudes and random errors are studied and discussed. The results indicate that a stable and realistic value of the aperiodicity can be predicted in an early state of seismicity evolution, even though only a small number of large earthquakes has occurred to date. Furthermore, we demonstrate that magnitude uncertainties can drastically influence the results and can therefore not be neglected. We show how to correct for the bias caused by magnitude errors. For the region of Parkfield we find that the aperiodicity, or the coefficient of variation, is clearly higher than in studies which are solely based on the large earthquakes.     

Temporal change of characteristics of shallow volcano-tectonic earthquakes associated with increase in volcanic activity at Kuchinoerabujima volcano, Japan

Shallow volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes recorded at the Kuchinoerabujima island volcano in southwest Japan are analyzed in order to clarify the role of hydrothermal activity in the development of volcanic seismicity. From analysis of shallow VT earthquakes in 2006, two specific episodes of elevated seismicity are observed in April and November 2006. The VT earthquakes have hypocenters at depths of 0–0.4 km beneath the summit crater, and normal fault focal mechanisms with WNW–ESE extension consistent with the tensional stress field indicated by the alignment of craters and fissures. Although the hypocenters and focal mechanisms are found to be largely invariant during these episodes, the corner frequencies of the VT earthquakes underwent a pronounced increase and decrease accompanying the changes in seismicity rates. The corner frequencies increased to 20–25 Hz approximately one month prior to the onset of elevated seismicity, and then decreased to 10–15 Hz in the period of peak seismicity. The rupture length also decreased at the onset of seismicity, thereafter increasing as the seismicity continued. The peak seismicity in terms of the daily number of VT events was accompanied by inflation around the crater, suggestive of a pressure increase in the volcanic system. It is inferred that the increase in shallow VT seismicity and rupture length is related to the development of a fractured zone. The pressure increase in the volcanic system is attributed to the intrusion of hydrothermal fluids, which is supported by an observed increase in fumarolic temperature and activity. The preceding monochromatic events are thus considered to be generated by the effect of fluid-filled cracks. The shortening of rupture length is then inferred to be related to the closing of non-fluid-filled cracks in the fracture zone under the increasing pressure field, leading to a transition from monochromatic events to low-frequency and shallow VT seismicity.     

Recognition of earthquake-prone areas: Methodology and analysis of the results

We present the results of verifying the areas that were detected as prone to strong earthquakes by the pattern recognition algorithms in different regions of the world with different levels of seismicity and, therefore, different threshold magnitudes demarcating the strong earthquakes. The analysis is based on the data presented in the catalog of the U.S. National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) as of August 1, 2012. In each of the regions considered, we examined the locations of the epicenters of the strong earthquakes that occurred in the region after the publication of the corresponding result. There were 91 such earthquakes in total. The epicenters of 79 of these events (87%) fall in the recognized earthquake-prone areas, including 27 epicenters located in the areas where no strong earthquakes had ever been documented up to the time of publication of the result. Our analysis suggests that the results of the recognition of areas prone to strong earthquakes are reliable and that it is reasonable to use these results in the applications associated with the assessment of seismic risks. The comparison of the recognition for California with the analysis of seismicity of this region by the Discrete Perfect Sets (DPS) algorithm demonstrates the agreement between the results obtained by these two different methods.     

2019年四川长宁MS6.0地震序列重定位和震源特征分析

采用双差定位方法对2019年1月1日至2019年10月20日期间四川区域台网记录到的地震进行重定位,得到7 030个重定位事件,并获得了四川长宁M_S6.0地震序列较准确的空间分布,并据此计算了震后长宁震源区的平均b值,分析了地震序列的活动性;利用近震全波形拟合方法获得了主震及4次M_S≥5.0地震的震源机制解和矩心深度,初步分析了本次地震序列的发震构造,获得如下主要结果:① 四川长宁余震序列呈NW?SE向分布,余震深度分布整体呈现出西深东浅的趋势,且西部地区地震的频度远远高于东部地区;② b值空间分布显示,震后长宁地区呈现出明显的挤压构造环境;③ 主震和4次震级较大余震的矩心深度均较浅,尽管均为逆冲型为主的地震事件,但破裂面走向有所差异;④ 推测主震及中强余震是长宁背斜地区既有断裂或者同震过程中所产生的新生断层长期受到外力挤压而错断所致。      

A uniform catalog of earthquakes for seismic hazard asesment in Iran

ＡｕｎｉｆｏｒｍｃａｔａｌｏｇｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｆｏｒｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｈａｚａｒｄａｓｅｓｍｅｎｔｉｎＩｒａｎＮｏｏｒｂａｋｈｓｈＭｉｒｚａｅｉ１，２）ＭＥＮＧ－ＴＡＮＧＡＯ１）（高孟谭）ＹＵＮ－ＴＡＩＣＨＥＮ１）（陈运泰）ＪＩＡＮＷＡＮＧ１...     

Statistics of seismic events at the Groningen field

Depletion of gas fields, even in a tectonically inactive area can induce earthquakes. This is the case for the Groningen gas field, located in the north of the Netherlands. Increased seismic activity raised public concern which led to the government trying to understand the cause of the earthquakes and optimize production such as to minimize the risk of induced seismicity. The main question is how production is correlated with induced seismicity. In this paper we deal with the statistics of seismic events using Bayesian model comparison and a Bayesian change point model. We have developed a method to assess seismic event rate, its changes and tendencies. These statistical analyses are in agreement with each other and find a constant event rate up to 2003, an increasing event rate from 2003 to 2014 and a preference for a decreasing event rate from early 2014 to now. Seasonality in the production and the number of events is present. The seasonality indicates a delay ranging between 2 and 8 months between seismicity and production changes. The question of interest is whether the production reduction since January 2014 has had an effect on the seismicity occurring in the Groningen field. The number of events in the Groningen field in the area affected by the production change has been reduced significantly. We present evidence that changes in seismicity are closely related to changes in production.