Anomalies in the Atmospheric Methane Content over Northern Eurasia in the Summer of 2016

Doklady Earth Sciences - Using data from the AIRS satellite instrument for the period of 2003–2016, the correlation between the regional anomalies of methane content in the atmosphere and the...     

Drought in Bulgaria and atmospheric synoptic conditions over Europe

Drought in Bulgaria is analyzed from the multiple viewpoints of statistical occurrence, spatial patterns, and synoptic conditions. A new index of drought, the SD (spatial-dryness) index, characterizes drought by both intensity and spatial extent. The occurrence of the SD index is analyzed using global gridded data sets. Examination of transitional probabilities of multiple months and years with drought occurrence suggests persistence is sufficiently frequent to be important for climate-related environmental planning. Finally, it is shown that specific seasonal synoptic patterns are associated with wet and dry conditions in Bulgaria. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Numerical diagnosis of tropical cyclogenesis based on a hypothesis of helical self-organization of moist convective atmospheric turbulence

A novel diagnosis for tropical cyclogenesis is presented by examining helical self-organization of moist convective atmospheric turbulence in a rotating, non-homogeneous atmosphere. Our original research approach employed near-cloud-resolving numerical simulations, which allows quantitative diagnosis of cyclogenesis when the primary and secondary circulations in a forming hurricane vortex become linked by deep rotating cumulonimbus cores—Vortical Hot Towers (VHTs). It is shown here how the generated linkage makes the nascent vortex an integral helical system and allows a positive energetic feedback between the circulations that, with adequate moisture fluxes from the underlying sea surface to maintain convective instability, provides a self-sustaining amplification process on the system-scale circulation. The performed investigation suggests that diagnoses using helicity may not only provide an answer to the important question of when will cyclogenesis commence, given a favorable tropical environment, but will help develop a universally accepted definition of tropical cyclogenesis that does not yet exist.     

Pyrological Situation in the Steppes of Northern Eurasia

Doklady Earth Sciences - The emergence and spreading of grass fires in the steppe regions of Northern Eurasia occurs against the background of spatial heterogeneity of landscapes and differences in...     

Influence of long-period oscillations on the development of droughts in Northern Eurasia

Doklady Earth Sciences - Estimates of the influence of the Atlantic long-period oscillation (ALO) on the formation of droughts in Northern Eurasia were obtained using the results of numerical...     

Simulation of neutrino transport by large-scale convective instability in a proto-neutron star

Neutrino transfer via convective flow to the surface of a proto-neutron star is numerically simulated. The evolution of the neutrino distribution in a heated region rising from the center of the proto-neutron star to its surface is simulated using a kinetic equation with a Uehling-Uhlenbeck collision integral in a uniform, isotropic approximation. The composition of the matter in the region under consideration changes due to the “burning” of electrons and protons by beta processes. The simulation results enable the estimation of the characteristic time required for the rising medium to become optically thin to neutrinos and the characteristic spectrum of the neutrinos that are emitted.     

基于三种多变量不安定指数分析模型的汶川县地质灾害易发性评价

采用多变量不安定指数分析法模型并加以改进,应用于汶川县地质灾害易发性评价。选取坡度、坡向、地层岩性、距断层距离、植被覆盖率及距水系距离六项影响因子,结合四川省自然资源厅发布的汶川县地质灾害隐患点数据,以幂次相乘、线性累加、幂次累加这三种不同的不安定指数分析法模型分别得到了研究区地质灾害易发性分区图,并用接受者操作特性曲线（Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, ROC curve）验证了各种模型的评价性能。结果表明:（1）对本案例而言,幂次相乘模型相较其它两种模型具有最高的精度;（2）汶川县地质灾害“极高”“高”“中”“低”“极低”易发区的面积占比分别为:19.3%、24.6%、19.2%、19.3%、17.6%,且研究区地质灾害易发性较高的区域多分布在断裂带附近。本研究成果可为区域地质灾害防治工作提供理论借鉴和技术参考。     

黄岩岛环礁地貌近40年变化的遥感分析

重建珊瑚礁的地貌变化历史将有助于理解珊瑚礁对气候变化的响应规律。因此,本文选择以南海中部相对孤立、低潮时部分露出的黄岩岛环礁（15°09'N,117°45'E）为对象,基于1977年至2019年间的Landsat和Sentinel-2共22景遥感影像来探讨南海珊瑚礁地貌的变化历史与规律。首先结合实测水深数据探讨遥感影像灰度的变化与珊瑚礁地貌带分界线位置的对应关系;然后通过基于梯度矢量流的主动轮廓线模型（GVF-Snake）和手动边缘提取相结合的方式,提取出黄岩岛环礁主要的地貌带分界线;进而利用数字化海岸线分析系统（DSAS）定量分析这些地貌带分界线位置的变化,并利用线性拟合来探讨这些地貌面积的变化趋势。结果表明：1）黄岩岛外海与礁前斜坡分界线、礁前斜坡与礁坪分界线、潟湖坡与潟湖底分界线均具有向外海移动的趋势,它们的平均移动速率分别是0.36 m/a、0.06 m/a和0.23 m/a,而礁坪与潟湖坡分界线则具有向潟湖移动趋势,平均移动速率为0.16 m/a;2）潟湖底的面积和礁体总面积都呈现增加的趋势,潟湖坡的面积有减少趋势,礁坪的面积则在1977年至1997年间以114523 m²/a的速率增加,其后在1997年至2019年间则以11289 m²/a的速率减少。进一步分析认为,近40年来,黄岩岛珊瑚礁生态系统退化致使其造礁能力的减弱,加之海平面上升、风暴潮侵蚀、海水溶解等因素的综合影响,导致黄岩岛珊瑚礁面积减少。

     

Theoretical investigation of convective instability in inclined and fluid-saturated three-dimensional fault zones

The convective instability of pore-fluid flow in inclined and fluid-saturated three-dimensional fault zones has been theoretically investigated in this paper. Due to the consideration of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone with any values of the inclined angle, it is impossible to use the conventional linear stability analysis method for deriving the critical condition (i.e., the critical Rayleigh number) which can be used to investigate the convective instability of the pore-fluid flow in an inclined three-dimensional fault zone system. To overcome this mathematical difficulty, a combination of the variable separation method and the integration elimination method has been used to derive the characteristic equation, which depends on the Rayleigh number and the inclined angle of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone. Using this characteristic equation, the critical Rayleigh number of the system can be numerically found as a function of the inclined angle of the three-dimensional fault zone. For a vertically oriented three-dimensional fault zone system, the critical Rayleigh number of the system can be explicitly derived from the characteristic equation. Comparison of the resulting critical Rayleigh number of the system with that previously derived in a vertically oriented one has demonstrated that the characteristic equation of the Rayleigh number is correct and useful for investigating the convective instability of pore-fluid flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system. The related numerical results from this investigation have indicated that: (1) the convective pore-fluid flow may take place in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone; (2) if the height of the fault zone is used as the characteristic length of the system, a decrease in the inclined angle of the inclined fault zone stabilizes the three-dimensional fundamental convective flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system; (3) if the thickness of the stratum is used as the characteristic length of the system, a decrease in the inclined angle of the inclined fault zone destabilizes the three-dimensional fundamental convective flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system; and that (4) the shape of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone may affect the convective instability of pore-fluid flow in the system.     

欧亚大陆春季植被对同年中国西北夏季大气环流和气候的影响研究

利用1982—2006年欧亚大陆月归一化植被指数（NDVI）,NCAR/NCEP月高度场和风场以及中国西北地区248个气象台站的逐日降水、温度资料,通过SVD及合成分析等方法,分析了欧亚大陆春季植被同同年中国西北夏季大气环流乃至干湿特征的关系.结果表明：欧亚大陆春季植被覆盖状况对预测我国西北地区同年夏季的干湿特征具有较...     

Theoretical and numerical analyses of convective instability in porous media with upward throughflow

Exact analytical solutions have been obtained for a hydrothermal system consisting of a horizontal porous layer with upward throughflow. The boundary conditions considered are constant temperature, constant pressure at the top, and constant vertical temperature gradient, constant Darcy velocity at the bottom of the layer. After deriving the exact analytical solutions, we examine the stability of the solutions using linear stability theory and the Galerkin method. It has been found that the exact solutions for such a hydrothermal system become unstable when the Rayleigh number of the system is equal to or greater than the corresponding critical Rayleigh number. For small and moderate Peclet numbers (Pe ⩽ 6), an increase in upward throughflow destabilizes the convective flow in the horizontal layer. To confirm these findings, the finite element method with the progressive asymptotic approach procedure is used to compute the convective cells in such a hydrothermal system. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weathering rates over 40,000 years based on changes in rock properties of porous rhyolite

Weathering rates based on temporal changes in a variety of rock properties were examined for four dated lava domes made of porous rhyolite. The lava domes were erupted at 1.1, 2.6, 20 and 40 ka BP. The time from each eruptive event to the present provide elapsed weathering times. The lava domes have many cooling joints formed immediately after eruption. Joint-bounded blocks have a high porosity, resulting in deep weathering. The blocks have almost uniform characteristics from top to bottom in one outcrop. The mineralogical, chemical, physical and mechanical properties of the four rhyolites were analysed. These results show that the chemical properties and physical properties, including specific surface area, change slowly in the early stage of weathering (0–20,000 years) and quickly in the later stage (20,000–40,000 years), while mechanical strength and bulk density or porosity of the rhyolites change rapidly in the early stage and slowly in the later stage. Mechanical strength reduces by 70–90% relative to fresh rock in 40,000 years, although chemical and physical properties change by only 1023̄0 %. It is concluded that different weathering properties exhibit different rates and patterns of change over 40,000 years, and that mechanical strength is the property most susceptible to weathering.     

Catchment-wide estimate of single storm interrill soil erosion using an aggregate instability index: a model based on geographic information systems

The main objective of this paper is to estimate interrill erosion after rainfall in the basin of Mourganis river (442?km²; Kalabaka province, Trikala prefecture, Thessaly, Greece). For the estimation of the interrill erosion, the method of Valmis et al. (1988) was used, in combination with Nearing et al. (1989). Input data of the algorithm include the slope angle of the ground surface, the rainfall, the ground cover type, the height of canopy, and the instability of ground of the study area. The spatial data were processed by standard GIS software. Soil samples were collected in the field to calibrate the model. The results comprise soil erosion maps for two specific rainfall scenarios. The first rainfall scenario refers to the most extreme rainfall in this catchment that happened on the 7/21/1959 with 48?mm/h. The second scenario is closer to average as the intensity rainfall is 3.54?mm/h. The total mass of eroded material ranges from 0.048?t/ha (assuming mean rainfall intensity) up to 3.5?t/ha (for the extreme scenario). We note that the western part of the Mourgani basin exhibits higher erosion than the eastern part.     

Contribution of Grenvillian events to the formation of most complete Riphean sedimentary successions in Northern Eurasia

The Grenvillian orogeny (～1250 to 980 Ma) was one of the most significant Riphean events. It determined the formation of many structures observable now in North and South America, northwestern Europe, South Africa, Western Australia, Antarctica, and other regions. Nevertheless, its reflections in the most complete and relatively well investigated Upper Precambrian sedimentary sections of northern Eurasia such as the Riphean stratotype (Bashkir meganticlinorium) and hypostratotype (Uchur-Maya region) still remain unknown. This is primarily true of the petrographic and chemical compositions of terrigenous rocks. This work is dedicated to the analysis of peculiar features in variations of the whole-rock chemical composition of sandstones and fine-grained clastic rocks (shales, mudstones, fine-grained clayey siltstones) that constitute Middle-Upper Riphean boundary layers of the Bashkir meganticlinorium, Kama-Belaya aulacogen, and Uchur-Maya region. The analysis reveals no tendency for the decrease in the degree of the chemical and, consequently, mineralogical maturity in the upward direction through the Middle-Upper Riphean sections in the above-mentioned regions. The whole-rock compositions of fine-grained clastic rocks associated with sandstones correspond mostly to that of “common” Upper Precambrian clayey rocks. The formation of practically the entire Yurmatinian-Karatavian succession in the Bashkir meganticlinorium proceeded under relatively stable T_DM and ?_Nd(T) values. The period of 1250 to 980 Ma in the central and eastern parts of the Siberian Platform was marked by repeated rifting episodes alternating with accumulation of mature platformal sediments, although repercussions of Grenvillian collisional processes are missing from this region as well. The performed analysis provides grounds for the conclusion that contribution of the Grenvillian events to the formation of most complete Riphean successions in northern Eurasia was insignificant.     

Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall (temperature) events in the twenty-first century based on 18 (24)-member multimodel simulations of models participating in phase 5 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The study employed extreme indices defined by the WMO’s Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices, under two radiative forcing scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two 30-year time periods, mid- (2021–2050) and end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century, are considered for investigation of extremes, relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Mann–Kendall test statistic and Sen’s slope estimator are used to investigate trend. Temperature shows a remarkable increase with an increase in radiative forcing. A sharp augmentation in temperature is projected towards the end of the twenty-first century. There will be almost zero cool days and cold nights by the end of the century. Very wet and extremely very wet days increase, especially over Uganda and western Kenya. Variation in maximum 1-day precipitation (R × 1 day) and maximum 5-day precipitation amount shows a remarkable increase in variance towards the end of the twenty-first century. Although the results are based on relatively coarse resolution data, they give likely conditions that can be utilized in long-term planning and be relied on in advanced studies.     

Quantitative estimates of temperature changes over the last 2700 years in Michigan based on pollen data

Temperatures for the past 2700 yr are estimated using well-dated pollen data from northwestern lower Michigan. The pollen data were sampled from sediment cores of four lakes along a 75-km transect, with fine-grained morainic soils around the two western lakes and sandy outwash soils around the lakes to the east. Climatic reconstructions based on the pollen data from the sandy sites show less temperature change than the reconstructions from the other sites, because variations in the composition of the vegetation at the sandy sites are edaphically restricted. One of the cores studied was dated by counting visible annual laminations (varves). The cores from the other lakes were dated based on three radiocarbon dates per core as well as the historically determined age of the settlement horizons. All the time scales were cross-checked using pollen-stratigraphic correlation between the four sites. A calibration function was developed using a network of modern pollen and climate data covering all of lower Michigan. Based on this calibration function, the 2700-yr reconstruction for Marion Lake indicates an estimated growing-season temperature range of 1.3°C between extreme 30-yr means. Mild conditions persisted prior to ca. A.D. 400, but a cold interval occurred between ca. A.D. 500 and 800. The well-marked warm period evident from ca. A.D. 1000 to 1200 was the last time when temperatures were about equal to the 1931–1960 mean. A prolonged longed cooling occurred after A.D. 1200 and reached 1°C below the 1931–1960 mean by the 1700s. A warming of 0.5°C is indicated from ca. A.D. 1750 to 1850. The estimated temperatures for the 1830s at Marion Lake agree with the instrumental data for that period and this provides some validation of the calibration-function results.     

欧亚和我国东北冬春季积雪对东北夏季气温的影响

根据我国东北及邻近地区123个气象站的逐日气温和积雪深度资料,欧亚大陆积雪面积以及NCEP/NCAR全球再分析月平均500hPa高度场资料,通过相关、合成分析等方法,研究了东北夏季气温异常对欧亚和我国东北冬春季积雪的响应,并从大气环流的角度出发分析了欧亚和我国东北冬春季积雪对东北夏季气温异常形成的影响机制.结果表明:东北地区夏季气温与欧亚大陆春季积雪面积以及东北冬季累积雪深的异常存在明显的关系.欧亚春季积雪面积的扩大与维持有利于8月我国东北上空500hPa位势高度的偏低,环流上表现出西欧与我国东北地区槽加深,泰梅尔阻塞高压加强的特征.由于欧亚中高纬上空的环流经向度加大,槽后脊前的西北气流加强,诱导冷空气南下,从而造成东北全区8月气温一致偏低;东北冬季累积雪深减少则有利于6月东北全区、7月东北西南部上空的位势高度偏低(负距平),造成相关区域气温偏低.研究结果对于提高东北夏季气温的短期气候预测水平具有重要意义.     

古尔班通古特沙漠树枝状沙丘土壤水分时空变异特征

认识沙漠土壤水分的时空变异性,是揭示沙漠生态系统生态-水文格局的基础。利用中子土壤水分仪的实测数据,对古尔班通古特沙漠树枝状沙丘土壤水分时空变异进行了系统分析。研究表明:① 沙丘不同部位土壤水分随时间具有一致性变化规律,上层土壤和下层土壤的变化趋势有所不同。0~1 m土层坡顶>坡中>坡脚,1~2 m土层坡脚>坡中>坡顶。② 土壤水分具有明显的季节变化和分层变化特征。春季是古尔班通古特沙漠土壤水分最丰富、变化最迅速的时期;0~40 cm、40~140 cm、140~200 cm土层土壤水分变异系数分别为13.56%、5.35%和0.80%,与不同土层水分来源和消耗以及植物根系分布相对应;不同土层土壤水分的变异强度要大于不同部位土壤水分的变异强度。③ 植被和地形对土壤水分的空间分异作用明显,沙丘坡脚处以及荒漠灌木梭梭根区始终存在土壤水分相对富集区。