Soil frost effects on soil water and runoff dynamics along a boreal transect: 2. Simulations

A physically based SVAT‐model was tested with soil and snow physical measurements, as well as runoff data from an 8600 m² catchment in northern Sweden in order to quantify the influence of soil frost on spring snowmelt runoff in a moderately sloped, boreal forest. The model was run as an array of connected profiles cascading to the brook. For three winter seasons (1995–98) it was able to predict the onset and total accumulation of the runoff with satisfactory accuracy. Surface runoff was identified as only a minor fraction of the total runoff occurring during short periods in connection with ice blocking of the water‐conducting pores. Little surface runoff, though, does not mean that soil frost is unimportant for spring runoff. Simulations without frost routines systematically underestimated the total accumulated runoff. The possibility of major frost effects appearing in response to specific combinations of weather conditions were also tested. Different scenarios of critical initial conditions for the winter, e.g. high water saturation and delayed snow accumulation leading to an increased frost penetration, were tested. These showed that under special circumstances there is potential for increased spring runoff due to soil frost. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil frost effects on soil water and runoff dynamics along a boreal forest transect: 1. Field investigations

To determine how soil frost changes flowpaths of runoff water along a hillslope, a transect consisting of four soil profiles directed towards a small stream in a mature forest stand was investigated at Svartberget, near Vindeln in northern Sweden. Soil temperature, unfrozen water content, groundwater level and snow depth were investigated along the transect, which started at the riparian peat, and extended 30 m upslope into mineral soils. The two, more organic‐rich profiles closest to the stream had higher water retention and wetter autumn conditions than the sandy mineral soils further upslope. The organic content of the soil influenced the variation in frost along the transect. The first winter (1995–96) had abnormally low snow precipitation, which gave a deep frost down to 40–80 cm, whereas the two following winters had frost depths of 5–20 cm. During winter 1995–96, the two organic profiles close to the stream had a shallower frost depth than the mineral soil profile higher upslope, but a considerably larger amount of frozen water. The fraction of water that did not freeze despite several minus degrees in the soil was 5–7 vol.% in the mineral soil and 10–15 vol.% in the organic soil. From the measurements there were no signs of perched water tables during any of the three snowmelt periods, which would have been strong evidence for changed water flowpaths due to soil frost. When shallow soil layers became saturated during snowmelt, especially in 1997 and 1998, it was because of rising groundwater levels. Several rain on frozen ground events during spring 1996 resulted in little runoff, since most of the rain either froze in the soil or filled up the soil water storage. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using synthetic flow duration curves for rainfall–runoff model calibration at ungauged sites

The primary objective of the study is to propose a strategy for rainfall–runoff model calibration at ungauged sites. This strategy comprises two main components: (1) development of the regional analysis method to synthesize the flow duration curves at ungauged sites; and (2) utilization of the synthetic flow duration curves for model calibration. Since the regional analysis method can synthesize the flow duration curves at ungauged sites, the continuous rainfall–runoff model coupled with a global optimization method were applied in southern Taiwan using the synthetic flow duration curve as an objective for model calibration. The results reveal that the regional flow duration curve and the strategy for model calibration at ungauged sites have good performances in the study area. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow and frost: implications for spatiotemporal infiltration patterns – a review

Vast regions of the northern hemisphere are exposed to snowfall and seasonal frost. This has large effects on spatiotemporal distribution of infiltration and groundwater recharge processes as well as on the fate of pollutants. Therefore, snow and frost need to be central inherent elements of risk assessment and management schemes. However, snow and frost are often neglected or treated summarily or in a simplistic way by groundwater modellers. Snow deposition is uneven, and the snow is likely to sublimate, be redistributed and partly melt during the winter influencing the mass and spatial distribution of snow storage available for infiltration, the presence of ice layers within and under the snowpack and, therefore, also the spatial distribution of depths and permeability of the soil frost. In steep terrain, snowmelt may travel downhill tens of metres in hours along snow layers. The permeability of frozen soil is mainly influenced by soil type, its water and organic matter content, and the timing of the first snow in relation to the timing of sub‐zero temperatures. The aim with this paper is to review the literature on snow and frost processes, modelling approaches with the purpose to visualize and emphasize the need to include these processes when modelling, managing and predicting groundwater recharge for areas exposed to seasonal snow and frost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A rainfall‐runoff model parameterized from GIS and runoff data

A guiding principle in hydrological modelling should be to keep the number of calibration parameters to a minimum. A reduced number of parameters to be calibrated, while maintaining the accuracy and detail required by modern hydrological models, will reduce parameter and model structure uncertainty and improve model diagnostics. In this study, the dynamics of runoff are derived from the distribution of distances from points in the catchments to the nearest stream. This distribution is unique for each catchment and can be determined from a geographical information system. The distribution of distances, will, when a celerity of (subsurface) flow is introduced, provide a distribution of travel times, or a unit hydrograph (UH). For spatially varying levels of saturation deficit, we have different celerities and, hence, different UHs. Runoff is derived from the superposition of the different UHs. This study shows how celerities can be estimated if we assume that recession events represent the combined UHs for different levels of saturation deficit. A new soil moisture routine which estimates saturated and unsaturated volumes of subsurface water and with only one parameter to calibrate is included in the new model. The performance of the new model is compared with that of the Swedish HBV model and is found to perform equally well for eight Norwegian catchments although the number of parameters to be calibrated in the module concerning soil moisture and runoff dynamics is reduced from seven in the HBV model to one in the new model. It is also shown that the new model has a more realistic representation of the subsurface hydrology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A soil water and heat transfer model including changes in soil frost and thaw fronts

Freeze-thaw processes in soils,including changes in frost and thaw fronts(FTFs),are important physical processes.The movement of FTFs affects soil hydrothermal characteristics,as well as energy and water exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere and hydrothermal processes in the land surface.This paper reduces the issue of soil freezing and thawing to a multiple moving-boundary problem and develops a soil water and heat transfer model which considers the effects of FTF on soil hydrothermal processes.A local adaptive variable-grid method is used to discretize the model.Sensitivity tests based on the hierarchical structure of the Community Land Model(CLM)show that multiple FTFs can be continuously tracked,which overcomes the difficulties of isotherms that cannot simultaneously simulate multiple FTFs in the same soil layer.The local adaptive variable-grid method is stable and offers computational efficiency several times greater than the high-resolution case.The simulated FTF depths,soil temperatures,and soil moisture values fit well with the observed data,which further demonstrates the potential application of this simulation to the land-surface process model.     

Impact of model simplifications on soil erosion predictions: application of the GLUE methodology to a distributed event‐based model at the hillslope scale

In this paper, we analyse how the performance and calibration of a distributed event‐based soil erosion model at the hillslope scale is affected by different simplifications on the parameterizations used to compute the production of suspended sediment by rainfall and runoff. Six modelling scenarios of different complexity are used to evaluate the temporal variability of the sedimentograph at the outlet of a 60 m long cultivated hillslope. The six scenarios are calibrated within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation framework in order to account for parameter uncertainty, and their performance is evaluated against experimental data registered during five storm events. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, percent bias and coverage performance ratios show that the sedimentary response of the hillslope in terms of mass flux of eroded soil can be efficiently captured by a model structure including only two soil erodibility parameters, which control the rainfall and runoff production of suspended sediment. Increasing the number of parameters makes the calibration process more complex without increasing in a noticeable manner the predictive capability of the model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of conditional parameterization on performance of rainfall‐runoff model regarding hydrologic non‐stationarity

Better parameterization of a hydrological model can lead to improved streamflow prediction. This is particularly important for seasonal streamflow forecasting with the use of hydrological modelling. Considering the possible effects of hydrologic non‐stationarity, this paper examined ten parameterization schemes at 12 catchments located in three different climatic zones in east Australia. These schemes are grouped into four categories according to the period when the data are used for model calibration, i.e. calibration using data: (1) from a fixed period in the historical records; (2) from different lengths of historical records prior to prediction year; (3) from different climatic analogue years in the past; and (4) data from the individual months. Parameterization schemes were evaluated according to model efficiency in both the calibration and verification period. The results show that the calibration skill changes with the different historic periods when data are used at all catchments. Comparison of model performance between the calibration schemes indicates that it is worth calibrating the model with the use of data from each individual month for the purpose of seasonal streamflow forecasting. For the catchments in the winter‐dominant rainfall region of south‐east Australia, a more significant shift in rainfall‐runoff relationships at different periods was found. For those catchments, model calibration with the use of 20 years of data prior to the prediction year leads to a more consistent performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Past and projected future changes in snowpack and soil frost at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest,New Hampshire,USA

Long‐term data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire show that air temperature has increased by about 1 °C over the last half century. The warmer climate has caused significant declines in snow depth, snow water equivalent and snow cover duration. Paradoxically, it has been suggested that warmer air temperatures may result in colder soils and more soil frost, as warming leads to a reduction in snow cover insulating soils during winter. Hubbard Brook has one of the longest records of direct field measurements of soil frost in the United States. Historical records show no long‐term trends in maximum annual frost depth, which is possibly confounded by high interannual variability and infrequency of major soil frost events. As a complement to field measurements, soil frost can be modelled reliably using knowledge of the physics of energy and water transfer. We simulated soil freezing and thawing to the year 2100 using a soil energy and water balance model driven by statistically downscaled climate change projections from three atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models under two emission scenarios. Results indicated no major changes in maximum annual frost depth and only a slight increase in number of freeze–thaw events. The most important change suggested by the model is a decline in the number of days with soil frost, stemming from a concurrent decline in the number of snow‐covered days. This shortening of the frost‐covered period has important implications for forest ecosystem processes such as tree phenology and growth, hydrological flowpaths during winter, and biogeochemical processes in soil. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulated multi-scale watershed runoff and sediment production based on GeoWEPP model

The runoff and sediment yield data from the Qiaozidonggou, Qiaozixigou, and Lu＇ergou watersheds, in the Loess Plateau of China are used to calibrate and validate the runoff and sediment yield simulated by GeoWEPP model of the WEPP Model at watershed scale. The indices of relative error, R, correlation coefficient, Re, and Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient Ens are used to evaluate the model fit. The eco-hydrological responses in the Luoyugou and Lu＇ergou watersheds are also forecast based on the WEPP Model. Meanwhile, the relation between vegetation pattern changes and sediment yield in the watershed is discussed, and the responses of runoff and sediment yield in the watersheds concerning forest growth stages are studied. The results show that the relative errors of simulated values of runoff and sediment yield are below 30%, the correlation coefficients axe above 0.90, and the Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficients axe above 0.80. The simulation results present satisfactory performance, thus, the model could be used to simulate the runoff and sediment yield in these small watersheds. It is also observed that soil erosion tended to become severe as precipitation increased in the watershed, while soil erosion has a decreasing trend as forest cover increases and vegetation pattern is optimized. When the watershed is fully covered by forest, erosion and sediment yield are minimized. When the forest cover is about 30% and evenly distributed in the watershed, the erosion intensity is lower than if the forest cover is collectively distributed in the watershed. Erosion varies with different forest growth stages in the watershed; it is more serious at the young and near planting stage and is the smallest at the mature forest stage.     

Comparison of genetic algorithms and shuffled complex evolution approach for calibrating distributed rainfall–runoff model

Three methods, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE), Simple Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Micro‐Genetic Algorithm (µGA), are applied in parameter calibration of a grid‐based distributed rainfall–runoff model (GBDM) and compared by their performances. Ten and four historical storm events in the Yan‐Shui Creek catchment, Taiwan, provide the database for model calibration and verification, respectively. The study reveals that the SCE, SGA and µGA have close calibration results, and none of them are superior with respect to all the performance measures, i.e. the errors of time to peak, peak discharge and the total runoff volume, etc. The performances of the GBDM for the verification events are slightly worse than those in the calibration events, but still quite satisfactory. Among the three methods, the SCE seems to be more robust than the other two approaches because of the smallest influence of different initial random number seeds on calibrated model parameters, and has the best performance of verification with a relatively small number of calibration events. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple rainfall–runoff model based on hydrological units applied to the Teba catchment (south‐east Spain)

A hydrological model (YWB, yearly water balance) has been developed to model the daily rainfall–runoff relationship of the 202 km² Teba river catchment, located in semi‐arid south‐eastern Spain. The period of available data (1976–1993) includes some very rainy years with intensive storms (responsible for flooding parts of the town of Malaga) and also some very dry years. The YWB model is in essence a simple tank model in which the catchment is subdivided into a limited number of meaningful hydrological units. Instead of generating per unit surface runoff resulting from infiltration excess, runoff has been made the result of storage excess. Actual evapotranspiration is obtained by means of curves, included in the software, representing the relationship between the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration as a function of soil moisture content for three soil texture classes. The total runoff generated is split between base flow and surface runoff according to a given baseflow index. The two components are routed separately and subsequently joined. A large number of sequential years can be processed, and the results of each year are summarized by a water balance table and a daily based rainfall runoff time series. An attempt has been made to restrict the amount of input data to the minimum. Interactive manual calibration is advocated in order to allow better incorporation of field evidence and the experience of the model user. Field observations allowed for an approximate calibration at the hydrological unit level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of runoff and sediment yield from a small watershed in sub‐humid subtropics using the HSPF model

The Hydrologic Simulation Programme‐Fortran (HSPF), a hydrologic and water quality computer model, was employed for simulating runoff and sediment yield during the monsoon months (June–October) from a small watershed situated in a sub‐humid subtropical region of India. The model was calibrated using measured runoff and sediment yield data for the monsoon months of 1996 and was validated for the monsoon months of 2000 and 2001. During the calibration period, daily‐calibrated runoff had a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) value of 0·68 and during the validation period it ranged from 0·44 to 0·67. For daily sediment yield E_NS was 0·71 for the calibration period and it ranged from 0·68 to 0·90 for the validation period. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of important watershed characteristics. The model parameters obtained in this study could serve as reference values for model application in similar climatic regions, with practical implications in watershed planning and management and designing best management practices. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Urban hydrologic trend analysis based on rainfall and runoff data analysis and conceptual model calibration

Urban stormwater is a major cause of urban flooding and natural water pollution. It is therefore important to assess any hydrologic trends in urban catchments for stormwater management and planning. This study addresses urban hydrological trend analysis by examining trends in variables that characterize hydrological processes. The original and modified Mann‐Kendall methods are applied to trend detection in two French catchments, that is, Chassieu and La Lechere, based on approximately 1 decade of data from local monitoring programs. In both catchments, no trend is found in the major hydrological process driver (i.e., rainfall variables), whereas increasing trends are detected in runoff flow rates. As a consequence, the runoff coefficients tend to increase during the study period, probably due to growing imperviousness with the local urbanization process. In addition, conceptual urban rainfall‐runoff model parameters, which are identified via model calibration with an event based approach, are examined. Trend detection results indicate that there is no trend in the time of concentration in Chassieu, whereas a decreasing trend is present in La Lechere, which, however, needs to be validated with additional data. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the original Mann‐Kendall method is not sensitive to a few noisy values in the data series.     

Modeling the runoff and glacier mass balance in a small watershed on the Central Tibetan Plateau,China, from 1955 to 2008

The glaciers on Tibetan Plateau play an important role in the catchment hydrology of this region. However, our knowledge with respect to water circulation in this remote area is scarce. In this study, the HBV light model, which adopts the degree‐day model for glacial melting, was employed to simulate the total runoff, the glacier runoff and glacier mass balance (GMB) of the Dongkemadi River Basin (DRB) at the headwater of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau, China. Firstly, the daily temperature and precipitation of the DRB from 1955 to 2008 were obtained by statistical methods, based on daily meteorological data observed in the DRB (2005–2008) and recorded by four national meteorological stations near the DRB (1955–2008). Secondly, we used 4‐year daily air temperature, precipitation, runoff depth and monthly evaporation, which were observed in the DRB, as input to obtain a set of proper parameters. Then, the annual runoff, the glacier runoff and GMB (1955–2008) were calculated using the HBV model driven by interpolated meteorological data. The calculated GMB fits well with the observed results. At last, using the temperature and precipitation predicted by climate models, we predicted the changes of runoff depth and GMB of the DRB in the next 40 years. Under all climate‐change scenarios, annual glacier runoff shows a significant increase due to intensified ice melting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semi‐distributed flood runoff model at the subcontinental scale for southwestern Iran

Rainfall–runoff modelling, as a surface hydrological process, on large‐scale data‐poor basins is currently a major topic of investigation that requires the model parameters be identified by using basin physical characteristics rather than calibration. This paper describes the application of the TOPMODEL framework accompanied by a kinematic wave model to the Karun River sub‐basins in southwestern Iran with just one conceptual parameter for calibration. ISLSCP1, HYDRO1K and Reynolds data sets are presented in a geographical information system and used as data sources for meteorological information, hydrological features and soil characteristics of the study area respectively. The results show that although the model developed can adequately predict flood runoff in the catchment with only one calibrated parameter, it is suggested that the effect of surface reservoirs be considered in the proposed model. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Error analysis for the evaluation of model performance: rainfall–runoff event time series data

This paper provides a procedure for evaluating model performance where model predictions and observations are given as time series data. The procedure focuses on the analysis of error time series by graphing them, summarizing them, and predicting their variability through available information (recalibration). We analysed two rainfall–runoff events from the R‐5 data set, and evaluated 12 distinct model simulation scenarios for these events, of which 10 were conducted with the quasi‐physically‐based rainfall–runoff model (QPBRRM) and two with the integrated hydrology model (InHM). The QPBRRM simulation scenarios differ in their representation of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Two InHM simulation scenarios differ with respect to the inclusion of the roads at R‐5. The two models, QPBRRM and InHM, differ strongly in the complexity and number of processes included. For all model simulations we found that errors could be predicted fairly well to very well, based on model output, or based on smooth functions of lagged rainfall data. The errors remaining after recalibration are much more alike in terms of variability than those without recalibration. In this paper, recalibration is not meant to fix models, but merely as a diagnostic tool that exhibits the magnitude and direction of model errors and indicates whether these model errors are related to model inputs such as rainfall. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conceptual rainfall–runoff model with a two‐parameter,infinite characteristic time transfer function

A two‐parameter transfer function with an infinite characteristic time is proposed for conceptual rainfall–runoff models. The large time behaviour of the unit response is an inverse power function of time. The infinite characteristic time allows long‐term memory effects to be accounted for. Such effects are observed in mountainous and karst catchments. The governing equation of the model is a fractional differential equation in the limit of long times. Although linear, the proposed transfer function yields discharge signals that can usually be obtained only using non‐linear models. The model is applied successfully to two catchments, the Dud Koshi mountainous catchment in the Himalayas and the Durzon karst catchment in France. It compares favourably to the linear, non‐linear single reservoir models and to the GR4J model. With a single reservoir and a single transfer function, the model is capable of reproducing hysteretic behaviours identified as typical of long‐term memory effects. Computational efficiency is enhanced by approximating the infinite characteristic time transfer function with a sum of simpler, exponential transfer functions. This amounts to partitioning the reservoir into several linear sub‐reservoirs, the output discharges of which are easy to compute. An efficient partitioning strategy is presented to facilitate the practical implementation of the model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct and indirect effects of rainfall and vegetation coverage on runoff,soil loss,and nutrient loss in a semi-humid climate

Soil and nutrient loss play a vital role in eutrophication of water bodies. Several simulated rainfall experiments have been conducted to investigate the effects of a single controlling factor on soil and nutrient loss. However, the role of precipitation and vegetation coverage in quantifying soil and nutrient loss is still unclear. We monitored runoff, soil loss, and soil nutrient loss under natural rainfall conditions from 2004 to 2015 for 50–100 m² runoff plots around Beijing. Results showed that soil erosion was significantly reduced when vegetation coverage reached 20% and 60%. At levels below 30%, nutrient loss did not differ among different vegetation cover levels. Minimum soil N and P losses were observed at cover levels above 60%. Irrespective of the management measure, soil nutrient losses were higher at high-intensity rainfall (Imax30>15 mm/h) events compared to low-intensity events (p < 0.05). We applied structural equation modelling (SEM) to systematically analyze the relative effects of rainfall characteristics and environmental factors on runoff, soil loss, and soil nutrient loss. At high-intensity rainfall events, neither vegetation cover nor antecedent soil moisture content (ASMC) affected runoff and soil loss. After log-transformation, soil nutrient loss was significantly linearly correlated with runoff and soil loss (p < 0.01). In addition, we identified the direct and indirect relationships among the influencing factors of soil nutrient loss on runoff plots and constructed a structural diagram of these relationships. The factors positively impacting soil nutrient loss were runoff (44%–48%), maximum rainfall intensity over a 30-min period (18%–29%), rainfall depth (20%–27%), and soil loss (10%–14%). Studying the effects of rainfall and vegetation coverage factors on runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss can improve our understanding of the underlying mechanism of slope non-point source pollution.     

Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model. II: analysis,calibration and validation

The model presented in the complementary document entitled, Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model I: parameter application and analysis is analysed, calibrated and validated in this paper. The accuracy of simulated hydrographs is analysed by means of the efficiency defined by Nash and Sutcliffe. The sensitivity of the influence of five parameters on the behaviour of the model developed is analysed. Two different calibration and validation processes of Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model are performed in Aixola watershed. Twelve events have been selected for calibrations and 25 for validations. With the first calibration and validation process, the model parameters are set by assigning the medians' values of the distributions obtained by means of the optimum results. The second process is performed by calibrating the most determinant parameter in the adjustment, which is the one that indicates the proportion of infiltrated water that is retained and does not flow; this is done with an empirical formulation depending on the event characteristics. Subsequently, the obtained results are validated. This last process has achieved very good adjustments in both calibrated and validated events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.