我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究

美国、日本等国家已经建立了完善的海啸防灾减灾机制，对海啸危险性分析方法的研究也做了很多的工作，而我国目前在这方面尚属空白。本文首次对我国的海啸危险性分析方法进行了研究，提出了我国地震海啸危险性分析的基本原则，在此基础上，借鉴我国成熟的地震危险性分析方法，建立了我国地震海啸危险性分析方法的主要步骤。在根据我国一些历史地震海啸资料的基础上，通过统计的方法对我国珠江三角洲的海啸危险性进行了研究。     

海啸危险性概率分析的不确定性研究

针对海啸危险性概率分析（PTHA）存在的较大不确定性问题,对不确定性产生来源进行了归纳和分类,提出了基于逻辑树与事件树方法合理量化不确定性的思路框架,并以马尼拉海啸潜源为研究对象,给出了量化震级上限、破裂面参数不确定的过程示例。数值模拟分析结果表明：海啸潜源震级上限的改变对危险性评估结果产生了显著影响,通过逻辑树方法可合理量化这种不确定性;地震破裂面的倾角、滑移角和破裂面积的随机不确定性对海啸危险性分析结果产生较为显著的影响,经事件树方法处理后的危险性结果保证率远高于20%,略低于80%,可基本满足工程抗海啸设计要求。     

时间相依的地震危险性概率分析

阐述了基于泊松模型以及时间相依的特征地震模型的地震危险性概率分析的基本原理与方法 .以祁连山中东段为例 ,对 2种不同模型的地震危险性概率分析结果做了对比研究 ,指出时间相依的地震危险性概率分析在理论上可能更为合理 ,并且可以应用于强震的短临预测研究 .     

珠江口区域地震海啸危险性分析

<正>1研究背景我国东南沿海地处环太平洋地震带,该海域海底地震频率高,具备引发海啸的水深条件,历史上发生多起海啸事件。一般,在印度洋及太平洋发生的海啸,受中南半岛、印度尼西亚群岛、菲律宾群岛及琉球群岛等岛屿的阻隔,到达南海时强度较弱,易实现提前预警。因此,一般只需考虑源于南海地区局地的海啸危险性。但是,大多数研究集中在马尼拉海沟俯冲区地震活动对南海地区造成的海啸危险性。事实上,     

2011年3月11日日本地震海啸越洋传播及对中国影响的数值分析

北京时间2011年3月11日13时46分(05:46 UTC)日本东北部近海(38.3°N,142.4°E)发生Mw9.0级特大地震,此次地震的强度为日本近1200a来最强.随后环太平洋的数十个国家和地区的验潮站和海啸监测浮标均监测到了强震引发的越洋海啸,海啸奔袭23 h到达南美洲的智利沿岸;此次海啸除了对近场的日本东北部沿岸地区造成了巨大灾害,还对太平洋东岸的部分国家和地区造成了一定程度的影响.地震发生4 h后海啸波到达我国台湾东部沿海,6~8 h海啸波到达我国大陆东南沿海,受此影响我国发布了第一份海啸蓝色警报.本文利用海啸数值模型对此次地震海啸的产生、越洋传播过程进行了数值模拟,给出了海啸波能量在我国近海及泛太平洋区域分布特征;同时重点模拟分析了海啸波在日本及中国近海传播的波动特征,模拟结果与观测数据吻合良好.最后通过对数值模拟结果的分析,阐述了此次海啸对中国的影响,给出了潜在的日本地震海啸对中国的风险估计.     

2011年3月11日日本地震海啸越洋传播及对中国影响的数值分析

北京时间2011年3月11日13时46分(05:46 UTC)日本东北部近海(38.3°N,142.4°E)发生M_w9.0级特大地震,此次地震的强度为日本近1200a来最强.随后环太平洋的数十个国家和地区的验潮站和海啸监测浮标均监测到了强震引发的越洋海啸,海啸奔袭23 h到达南美洲的智利沿岸;此次海啸除了对近场的日本东北部沿岸地区造成了巨大灾害,还对太平洋东岸的部分国家和地区造成了一定程度的影响.地震发生4 h后海啸波到达我国台湾东部沿海,6~8 h海啸波到达我国大陆东南沿海,受此影响我国发布了第一份海啸蓝色警报.本文利用海啸数值模型对此次地震海啸的产生、越洋传播过程进行了数值模拟,给出了海啸波能量在我国近海及泛太平洋区域分布特征;同时重点模拟分析了海啸波在日本及中国近海传播的波动特征,模拟结果与观测数据吻合良好.最后通过对数值模拟结果的分析,阐述了此次海啸对中国的影响,给出了潜在的日本地震海啸对中国的风险估计.     

印尼苏门答腊西8.7级地震的几个特点及由其引发的一些思考

分析总结了印尼苏门答腊西8．7级地震的几个特点：(1)板缘特大地震;(2)引发海啸,受灾范围特别大,成灾的瞬间突发性却不如内陆地震明显;(3)在远处出现“湖面波动”等同震现象突出;(4)震前全球地震活动出现异常图像;(5)安达曼弧一带与川滇地区强震活动存在相关性。并由此提出了：尽快加紧地震海啸预警机制研究及其技术系统的建立;加强地震预测预警机制研究;要重点研究川滇地区的地震危险性;强化防震减灾科普宣传等建议。     

日本Mw9.0级地震海啸数值模拟与启示

2011年3月11日13时46分日本东北部海域发生Mw9.0级特大地震,地震诱发了海啸.本文依据USGS的震源机制解,进行了地震海啸的数值模拟,并与美国国家海洋与大气管理局布设的海底压力计记录的水深数据对比分析,结果表明数值模拟结果可信.同时,进一步分析了海啸造成巨大损失的原因,并对未来我国海啸防灾减灾工作给出了几点建...     

基于强震台网的我国沿海海啸走时预警

经济快速发展的中国沿海地区,面临着潜在海啸袭击危险。海啸传播走时分析是海啸预警系统的重要组成部分。本文基于强震台网提供的地震要素,从理论上讨论海啸预警时间计算方法。在球坐标系下,建立了远洋海啸传播模型,采用差分技术,实现远洋海啸传播数值模拟,首次针对我国主要城市进行了海啸走时计算,分析了我国沿海走时特点,指出了未来发生在太平洋的远洋海啸对我国的长江三角洲会有较大影响。本文计算海啸走时方法可以为我国建设的新一代基于数值海啸预警系统提供技术支持。     

我国地震海啸危险性初步探讨

概述了地震海啸的特征及其成因、国内外历史上发生地震海啸的情况,结合我国沿海的地震、构造、海底地貌等特点,分析了我国沿海发生地震海啸的可能性。最后简要叙述了卫星技术在地震海啸监测中的应用。     

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

Field survey report on tsunami disasters caused by the 1993 Southwest Hokkaido earthquake

Detailed field work at Okushiri Island and along the southwest coast of Hokkaido has revealed quantitatively (1) the advancing direction of tsunami on land, (2) the true tsunami height (i.e., height of tsunami, excluding its splashes, as measured from the ground) and (3) the flow velocity of tsunami on land, in heavily damaged areas. When a Japanese wooden house is swept away by tsunami, bolts that tie the house to its concrete foundation resist until the last moment and become bent towards the direction of the house being carried away. The orientations of more than 850 of those bent bolts and iron pipes (all that can be measured, mostly at Okushiri Island) and fell-down direction of about 400 trees clearly display how tsunami behaved on land and caused serious damage at various places. The true tsunami height was estimated by using several indicators, such as broken tree twigs and a window pane. The flow velocity of tsunami on land was determined by estimating the hydrodynamic force exerted on a bent handrail and a bent-down guardrail by the tsunami throughin situ strength tests.Contrary to the wide-spread recognition after the tsunami hazard, our results clearly indicate that only a few residential areas (i.e., Monai, eastern Hamatsumae, and a small portion at northern Aonae, all on Okushiri Island) were hit by a huge tsunami, with true heights reaching 10 m. Southern Aonae was completely swept away by tsunami that came directly from the focal region immediately to the west. The true tsunami height over the western sea wall of southern Aonae was estimated as 3 to 4 m. Northern Aonae also suffered severe damage due to tsunami that invaded from the corner zone of the sand dune (8 m high) and tide embankment at the northern end of the Aonae Harbor. This corner apparently acted as a tsunami amplifier, and tide embankment or breakwater can be quite dangerous when tsunami advances towards the corner it makes with the coast. The nearly complete devastation of Inaho at the northern end of Okushiri Island underscored the danger of tsunami whose propagation direction is parallel to the coast, since such tsunami waves tend to be amplified and tide embankment or breakwater is constructed low towards the coast at many harbors or fishing ports. Tsunami waves mostly of 2 to 4 m in true height swept away Hamatsumae on the southeast site of Okushiri Island where there were no coastal structures. Coastal structures were effective in reducing tsunami hazard at many sites. The maximum flow velocity at northern Aonae was estimated as 10 to 18 m/s (Tsutsumi et al., 1994), and such a high on-land velocity of tsunami near shore is probably due to the rapid shallowing of the deep sea near the epicentral region towards Okushiri Island. If the advancing direction, true height, and flow velocity of tsunami can be predicted by future analyses of tsunami generation and progagation, the analyses will be a powerful tool for future assessment of tsunami disasters, including the identification of blind spots in the tsunami hazard reduction.     

越洋海啸的数值模拟

破坏性海啸基本上都是越洋海啸,如1960年智利海啸、2004年苏门答腊海啸。越洋海啸的传播机制与近场海啸不同,进行数值模拟所采用的数学模型也不同。本文分析比较Boussinesq方程和线性浅水方程,选用后者作为进行越洋海啸数值模拟的数学模型,基于有限差分法,运用蛙跃格式求解微分方程。以2004年苏门答腊海啸作为算例,把计算结果与NOAA和NGDC的计算结果进行对比,验证本文的数学模型和计算方法的可靠性,为以后进一步的海啸危险性分析和海啸预警等研究工作提供技术支持。     

Tsunami hazard in the shorelines of Khark island (Persian Gulf), Iran

Iran is located in one of the seismically active regions of the world. Due to the high probability of earthquakes throughout the country and the potential for tsunami inundation along the coasts and offshore, comprehensive studies on the interaction of these natural phenomena are necessary. In this study, the most conservative scenarios are determined for possible earthquakes within the Khark zone (Persian Gulf) based on experimental relations between the fault length, magnitude and displacement, which are parameters for determining tsunamigenic sources. Subsequently, the maximum height of tsunami waves are calculated based on the specifications of the seismic source and its distance from the shore as well as the coastal slope. A zoning map of tsunami hazard is finally presented.     

日本南海海槽发生罕遇地震情况下我国华东沿海的海啸危险性研究

基于日本南海海槽地震活动性和历史海啸事件记载的分析,本文对日本南海海槽发生M_W9.1罕遇地震情况下的海啸进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明:该地震可引发初始波幅约10 m的海啸,6个小时后传至浙江沿海,近岸各处波幅为1—2 m;8个小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波幅约2 m,受地形影响局地爬高至近3 m;11个小时后抵达苏北黄海沿岸,预计波幅普遍在1 m左右.海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关.我国近岸海域地形变化复杂,海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,该模拟结果可能比实际传播到近岸时偏小,因此综合评估日本海啸影响我国华东地区的规模m可达1—2级左右.一旦日本南海发生罕遇地震对我国的影响不容忽视,尤其遇上风暴潮与天文大潮叠加,则可能会造成一定程度的海啸灾害.     

Comparison of two great Chile tsunamis in 1960 and 2010 using numerical simulation

Great differences in hazard and losses were shown from two tsunamis, both generated in Chile, one in 1960 and the other in 2010. Numerical simulation was applied to the tsunami analysis. The fault dislocation of the seafloor was assumed to equal to the initial tsunami wave field, which can be calculated by the formula of fault dislocation in the elastic isotropic half-space. The linear long wave theory was used as the tsunami hydrodynamic model, and the finite difference method and leap-frog scheme were selected for solving the equations. The accuracy of the simulated results was verified by the observed data in five tide gauges. By means of two scenario tsunamis, the analytical results show that the earthquake magnitude, bathymetry in rupture zone and rapid release of warning information in 2010 tsunami are the main explanations of the aforementioned great difference.     

地震海啸在东海大陆架上传播过程的数值模拟研究

在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.     

海啸灾害及其预警系统

地震海啸是最严重的自然灾害之一。2004年底印度洋大海啸更是震撼了全世界。本文对海啸的定义、性质、特征,历史上和近代的中国和世界的严重海啸灾害作了简单介绍。指出建立和完善海啸预警系统,可以在一旦海啸发生后,争取几十分钟甚至几小时时间,提前发出海啸警报信息,这就能极大地减轻海啸灾害。本文简单地介绍了海啸预警系统的主要内容。