Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part II: a modeling study

The Center for Ocean?CLand?CAtmosphere Studies Atmospheric General Circulation Model is used to investigate the role of global boundary conditions of sea surface temperature (SST) in the establishment and maintenance of the European heat wave of 2003 summer. It is found that the global SST anomalies can explain many major features of the European heat wave during the summer of 2003. A further experiment has investigated the role of SST outside the Mediterranean area. This supplements the results of a previous study where the role of warm Mediterranean SST was analyzed. The results suggest that the SST anomalies had an additional effect of reducing the baroclinicity in the European area reinforcing the blocking circulation and helping to create ideal conditions for the establishment of the heat wave.     

Testing for nonlinearity in European climatic time series by the method of surrogate data

Summary Using temperature and pressure records from Czech meteorological stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis series, we tested for the presence of detectable nonlinearity in univariate and multivariate climatic time series. The method of surrogate data was utilized for nonlinearity detection – results of nonlinear prediction for the original series were compared to the results for series whose nonlinear structure was randomized. The prediction was done by means of local linear models in the reconstructed phase space. None or very weak nonlinearity was found in the single (univariate) series, and pressure series generally exhibited stronger nonlinearity than series of temperature (daily mean, minimum or maximum). Distinct nonlinearity was found in all tested multivariate systems, especially when both temperatures and pressures were used simultaneously to form the phase space. Nonlinearity tests were carried out for 30-year and 10-year-long datasets and nonlinear behavior was generally more apparent in the longer versions. In addition, the tested systems showed more substantial nonlinearity when the success of short-range prediction was used as the discriminating statistic; with an increase of the prediction time, detectable nonlinearity became weaker and it disappeared completely for long-term prediction.     

On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N–45°S, 10°E–240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts–Miller–Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell–Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model’s internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model’s natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.     

On estimating the return values for time series of wind speed and wind wave height

In order to estimate the return values ofthe time series ofwind speed and wind wave height, it is proposed to use the extrapolation of polynomial approximation constructed for the small part of the tail of probability function of the series considered. The method is based on the optimization of the accuracy of polynomial approximation implemented by varying the length and shift of the used part of probability function and the polynomial exponent. Optimization includes control over quality criteria for approximation that are aimed at increasing approximation accuracy. On the example of wind reanalysis data and the results of numerical simulation of wind waves in the Indian Ocean for the period of 1980-2010, the proposed method is applied to obtain the return value estimates of the mentioned parameters at several fixed points in the ocean.     

Fluxes of latent heat over the oceans: climatological studies and application of satellite observations

A short review is given of the different methods by which latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) over oceans are determined. In more detail, the applicability of the bulk aerodynamical formula is discussed. This formula is mainly used for climatological studies of heat fluxes and for the application of satellite data. As an example, for climatological studies we selected the work of Isemer and Hasse, who did a re-processing of the so-called Bunker data set to determine heat fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean. In order to check their results, Isemer and Hasse calculated the annual mean heat budget for each latitudinal delt and derived from it the required ocean heat transport. With the aid of inverse modelling, the derived ocean transport was compared with the observed ocean transport and some of the used coefficients (e.g. bulk coefficients for latent and sensible heat flux) were altered. Though the ocean heat transport is changed by a large amount (at the equator 0.3 PW, original Bunker data; 0 PW, Isemer and Hasse; 0.76 PW, after inverse modelling (all northwards)) the overall patterns of the fields of the energy fluxes remain almost unchanged. The bulk coefficient for latent heat flux for example is altered by 5.6%.The geophysical parameters necessary for the bulk aerodynamic method can be determined from satellite observations: SST, q₀, u₀. Studies are described which used data from a microwave radiometer on SEASAT and NIMBUS7 to determine latent heat flux. An error calculation shows that the obtained accuracy is between 26 and 35 W m⁻². This accuracy is adequate enough to allow reasonable estimates to be made of these fluxes. More satellites are planned for launch with microwave radiometers and scatterometers which will increase the possibility of determining geophysical parameters more accurately for use in the bulk aerodynamic formula. They will provide the database from which large-scale fieldsof latent heat flux (for time scales shorter than a month or even for actual situations) can be derived.     

Complex use of satellite radiometric,surface radar,and cloud numerical modeling data for controlling the modification works aiming to prevent precipitation in Peterhof

Results are presented of complex study of the clouds during the modification works aiming to prevent precipitation. To estimate the modification effect, a new technique is presented based upon comparison of the IR-radiometer measurements data, from the Meteosat satellite, on radiation temperature of the clouds after modification and those in natural development cycle. It is shown that for the case under study, radiation temperature increase is observed in the pixel corresponding to the city in which precipitation should be prevented.     

Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study

The heat wave affecting Europe during summer of 2003 is analyzed in detail with observational and reanalysis data. Surface, middle and upper troposphere analysis reveal particular circulation patterns related to an atmospheric blocking condition. In general seasonal anomalies, like this intense heat wave, are strongly related to boundary conditions. Composites and empirical orthogonal functions analysis provide evidence for an organized structure in the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly field: high SSTs in the Mediterranean basin, the North Sea and further north toward the Arctic Circle were observed mainly in the months of June and August. The outcome of this analysis on observational data shows the SST as one of the possible factors in enhancing the heat wave in the European area.     

Optimization of the time series NDVI-rainfall relationship using linear mixed-effects modeling for the anti-desertification area in the Beijing and Tianjin sandstorm source region

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Degradation in drylands is a critically important global issue that threatens ecosystem and environmental in many ways. Researchers have tried to use remote...     

The effect of cloud cover on surface net radiation: Simple formulae for use in mesoscale models

The effect of cloud cover on surface net radiation is parameterised into simple formulae, which have been fitted to calculated results from a detailed radiation model for various single-layer cloud types. The detailed model uses cloud optical depth information from satellite data analysis as input. The formulae use functional forms based on some of those reported in the literature. The proposed formulae have been shown to compare well to results from the detailed model for various combinations of cloud at different height levels in the atmosphere. By analysis of optical depth variations throughout the world, the proposed formulae have been shown to be valid for any location, except perhaps near the poles.     

Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001

Summary In this study, the trends of annual and seasonal precipitation time series were examined on the basis of measurements of 22 surface stations in Greece for the period 1955–2001, and satellite data during the period 1980–2001. For this purpose, two statistical tests based on the least square method and one based on the Mann-Kendall test, which is also capable of detecting the starting year of possible climatic discontinuities or changes, are applied. Greece, in general, presents a clear significant downward trend in annual precipitation for the period 1955–2001, which is determined by the respective decreasing trend in winter precipitation. Both winter and annual series exhibit a downward trend with a starting year being 1984. Satellite-derived precipitation time series could be an alternative means for diagnosing the variability of precipitation in Greece and detecting trends provided that they have been adjusted by surface measurements in the wider area of interest. The relationship between precipitation variability in Greece and atmospheric circulation was also examined using correlation analysis with three circulation indices: the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), a Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI) and a new Mediterranean Circulation Index (MCI). NAOI is the index that presented the most interesting correlation with winter, summer and annual precipitation in Greece, whereas the MOI and MCI were found to explain a significant proportion of annual and summer precipitation variability, respectively. The observed downward trend in winter and annual precipitation in Greece is linked mainly to a rising trend in the hemispheric circulation modes of the NAO, which are connected with the Mediterranean Oscillation Index.     

Proof of the monotonicity of grid size and its application in grid-size selection for mesoscale models

Terrain characteristics can be accurately represented in spectrum space. Terrain spectra can quantitatively reflect the effect of topographic dynamic forcing on the atmosphere. In wavelength space, topographic spectral energy decreases with decreasing wavelength, in spite of several departures. This relationship is approximated by an exponential function. A power law relationship between the terrain height spectra and wavelength is fitted by the least-squares method, and the fitting slope is associated with grid-size selection for mesoscale models. The monotonicity of grid size is investigated, and it is strictly proved that grid size increases with increasing fitting exponent, indicating that the universal grid size is determined by the minimum fitting exponent. An example of landslide-prone areas in western Sichuan is given, and the universal grid spacing of 4.1 km is shown to be a requirement to resolve 90% of terrain height variance for mesoscale models, without resorting to the parameterization of subgrid-scale terrain variance. Comparison among results of different simulations shows that the simulations estimate the observed precipitation well when using a resolution of 4.1 km or finer. Although the main flow patterns are similar, finer grids produce more complex patterns that show divergence zones, convergence zones and vortices.Horizontal grid size significantly affects the vertical structure of the convective boundary layer. Stronger vertical wind components are simulated for finer grid resolutions. In particular, noticeable sinking airflows over mountains are captured for those model configurations.     

Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: recent trends and an update to 2013

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this paper, the surface and lower tropospheric temperature trends in Greece and their relationship to the atmospheric circulation for the period...     

气象卫星资料在我国天气分析和预报上的应用

我国从1969年开始将气象卫星资料用于天气分析和预报。目前各省都有自动图片传送系统(APT)接收站。大多数自动图片传送系统(APT)接收站是接收泰罗斯-N(TIROS-N)卫星的低分辨扫描辐射仪云图,有几个站接收日本地球静止气象卫星云图,中央气象台还接收由华盛顿世界气象中心和日本气象厅发送的太平洋的卫星探空和测风资料。大多数天气预报部门的预报员在做短期预报时,常常参考卫星云图资料。根据近十年使用气象卫星资料的经验,我们认为卫星资料对于改善天气分析和预报是有用处的,尤其是在西藏高原和我国邻近海域,卫星资料是天气分析和预报的重要工具。     

Application of the COSMO-CLM mesoscale model to assess the effects of forest cover changes on regional weather conditions in the European part of Russia

The influence of forest cover in the west of the European part of Russia (55°–59° N, 28°–37° E) on regional weather conditions is analyzed via the climatic version of the COSMO nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (COSMO-CLM). The simulations are performed with a model grid spacing of 13.2 km for the warm season of 2010. The analysis demonstrates that the changes in forest cover in the selected model domain may lead to substantial variations in spatial precipitation and surface temperature patterns. At the same time, precipitation changes are evident within the entire area of the East European Plain.     

2012—2016年宁波市中暑流行特征及热浪对其影响分析

城市高温热浪事件严重影响人体健康和生命安全已成共识。利用宁波市2012—2016年中暑病例数据和同期气候数据对宁波市夏半年中暑流行特征及热浪对其的影响作了相关分析。结果表明:2012—2016年,2012年和2013年中暑人数最多,并集中在6—8月,其中7月人数最多占比55. 3%;男性中暑概率明显高于女性,中暑程度主要集中在轻度中暑,31—60岁年龄段中暑人数占比最高,市区中暑人数占比要高于郊区(县);用温湿两要素结合的炎热指数和热浪公式定义宁波热浪过程,发现热浪天数和中暑人数的相关系数高达0. 898,选出7次热浪过程计算热浪中暑的相对危险度,发现除2013年以外其他年份热浪中暑的相对危险度均在10以下,2013年的3次热浪中暑的相对危险度分别为18. 1、21. 6和25. 8,这与2013年热浪出现相对频繁集中有关;同时通过这7次热浪过程的前、后段热浪中暑的相对危险度的比较,并未见明显的热浪滞后效应存在。     

Observations on the use of analytical and numerical models for the description of transfer to porous surface vegetation such as lichen

Convective deposition of submicron-size aerosol to porous surface vegetation was studied by electrochemical simulation, under Reynolds and Schmidt similarity, to a rectangular array of closely-packed lichen and artificial wire roughness layers. Results, showing an approximate tenfold increase in deposition velocity over that of a flat plate placed at the same position, were compared with predictions made on the basis of various rough-surface transfer models, including those based on statistical eddy renewal, as well as with numerical solutions of the diffusion equation in statistically-renewed surface cavities. Most analytical models could be made to fit the observed data, at least for a limited range of flow velocities, but poorly known and poorly defined parameters limit their usefulness for predictive purposes; and their validity across a large variation in molecular diffusivity (or Schmidt number Sc) is generally not assured. Numerical models also depend on poorly substantiated physical assumptions but the effect of such assumptions on transfer can be calculated for a wider range of conditions than those permitting an analytical solution. This allows more direct feedback between model assumptions and calculated or observed transfer. Numerically calculated values for deposition velocity in air for Sc from 0.7 to 7000 and flow velocities from 0.2 to 5 m s^-1 are presented for different model assumptions, with values ranging from < 0.01 to > 1 cms^-1.     

Comparison of missing value imputation methods in time series: the case of Turkish meteorological data

This study aims to compare several imputation methods to complete the missing values of spatio–temporal meteorological time series. To this end, six imputation methods are assessed with respect to various criteria including accuracy, robustness, precision, and efficiency for artificially created missing data in monthly total precipitation and mean temperature series obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Of these methods, simple arithmetic average, normal ratio (NR), and NR weighted with correlations comprise the simple ones, whereas multilayer perceptron type neural network and multiple imputation strategy adopted by Monte Carlo Markov Chain based on expectation–maximization (EM-MCMC) are computationally intensive ones. In addition, we propose a modification on the EM-MCMC method. Besides using a conventional accuracy measure based on squared errors, we also suggest the correlation dimension (CD) technique of nonlinear dynamic time series analysis which takes spatio–temporal dependencies into account for evaluating imputation performances. Depending on the detailed graphical and quantitative analysis, it can be said that although computational methods, particularly EM-MCMC method, are computationally inefficient, they seem favorable for imputation of meteorological time series with respect to different missingness periods considering both measures and both series studied. To conclude, using the EM-MCMC algorithm for imputing missing values before conducting any statistical analyses of meteorological data will definitely decrease the amount of uncertainty and give more robust results. Moreover, the CD measure can be suggested for the performance evaluation of missing data imputation particularly with computational methods since it gives more precise results in meteorological time series.