Assessing the performance of two models on calculating maize actual evapotranspiration in a semi-humid and drought-prone region of China

The two-step and one-step models for calculating evapotranspiration of maize were evaluated in a semi-humid and drought-prone region of northern China. Data were collected in the summers of 2013 and 2014 to determine relative model accuracy in calculating maize evaopotranspiration. The two-step model predicted daily evaoptranspiration with crop coefficients proposed by FAO and crop coefficient calibrated by local field data; the one-step model predicted daily evapotranspiration with coefficients derived by other researcher and coefficients calibrated by local field data. The predicted daily evapotranspiration in 2013 and 2014 growing seasons with the above two different models was both compared with the observed evapotranspiration with eddy covariance method. Furthermore, evapotranspiration in different growth stages of 2013 and 2014 maize growing seasons was predicted using the models with the local calibrated coefficients. The results indicated that calibration of models was necessary before using them to predict daily evapotranspiration. The model with the calibrated coefficients performed better with higher coefficient of determination and index of agreement and lower mean absolute error and root mean square error than before. And the two-step model better predicted daily evapotranspiration than the one-step model in our experimental field. Nevertheless, as to prediction ET of different growth stages, there still had some uncertainty when predicting evapotranspiration in different year. So the comparisons suggested that model prediction of crop evapotranspiration was practical, but requires calibration and validation with more data. Thus, considerable improvement is needed for these two models to be practical in predicting evapotranspiration for maize and other crops, more field data need to be measured, and an in-depth study still needs to be continued.     

1960-2013年中国地表潜在蒸散发时空变化及其对气象因子的敏感性

基于中国107个气象站点的常规观测资料,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算了1960-2013年的逐日潜在蒸散发（ET0）,分析了中国5大区域的ET0对最高温度、最低温度、2m风速、日照时长、平均气压、相对湿度和地表温度的敏感性及其分区特征。结果表明：（1）模拟的从1960-2013年平均ET0和与蒸发皿蒸散发量之间的比值为0.55,各逐站点的ET0与蒸发皿蒸散发的相关系数为0.84-0.98（剔除观测值为0的情况的样本）之间和0.42-0.81（未剔除观测值为0的情况的样本）。（2）本研究中模拟的ET0以6.75mm/10a的速度呈现出下降的趋势。敏感性分析表明,在1960-2013年间的全国范围内,最高气温和最低气温分别增加0.68℃和1.54℃,相应地导致ET0增加12.81mm和14.13mm;风速减少0.51m/s,日照时长减少0.61h,相对湿度减少2.84%,将分别导致蒸散量减少48.08mm,21.5mm,204.49mm,这能很好的解释“蒸发悖论”问题。（3）对中国不同地理分区的ET0,在东北区域、华北区域、和西北区域,蒸散量最敏感的气象因子是相对湿度,其次是风速;在西南区域和华中和华东区域,蒸散量最敏感的气象因子是相对湿度,其次是日照时长。     

大气复合污染是灰霾内因

使用北京区域环境气象数值预报系统2015年11、12月和2016年1、5、6、7月PM_2.5浓度的模式模拟结果与同期有限观测资料进行相关分析,探索在站点稀少情况下如何确定最优测站分布策略的方法。通过模拟结果与有限观测资料的结合,使用观测资料筛选比较好的模拟结果,可以得到有较高空间分辨率和一定时间序列长度的资料, 进而可以进行站点代表性分析确定最优站点分布。基于该方法分析了北京地区气溶胶观测的站点分布策略。北京地区PM_2.5浓度呈南高北低的分布, 另一个显著的特点是有沿地形分布的特点。冬季与夏季明显的区别是,夏季PM_2.5浓度变化比较大的区域在西南部,而冬季该大值区沿地形向东北扩展比较明显。总体上,观测站点分布宜在北京西南部采用较小的站距,向北向东站点距离逐步增大。针对冬季观测站点分布的显著特征是西部沿山一带需要较高的站点密度。要获得相同质量的空间分布特征,冬季站点总体密度比夏季高。

     

中国公众对气候变化和气象灾害认知的社会性别差异

对2015年全国公众气象服务评价调查结果的分析显示,我国公众中男性对气候变化认识程度以及对气象灾害预警的认知水平和满意度都比女性高。城镇女性选择环保产品、环保出行及愿意对生活或工作方式做出改变来应对气候变化的比例高于城镇男性,而农村男性选择调整或改变种植或养殖方式、改变种植或养殖品种及转换谋生方式的比例高于女性。男性选择购买相关气象或气候保险、参加培训或辅导的比例比女性高,而女性选择学习气象灾害和气候变化相关的专业知识比例高于男性。女性对气象服务信息的需求比例比男性高。建议：1)积极推进气候变化及其灾害认知的社会性别研究,建立灾害认知性别数据库,将社会性别融入到气象灾害风险管理的整个过程;2)在气象服务中引入社会性别视角,加强针对女性的宣传和指导,开发适合女性的服务产品和信息传播渠道,提升她们应对灾害的意识和能力。     

呼伦贝尔草原生长季叶绿素荧光的特征及其对气象条件变化的响应

在2022年生长季内,基于轨道植被观测仪(型号NZD-G1)对呼伦贝尔草原开展了日光诱导叶绿素荧光(Solar-Induce chlorophyll Fluorescence,SIF)的原位观测。相较于归一化植被指数,SIF的低频变化分量同样可以表征植物在生长季内的长势变化,而高频变化可以更清楚地监测植物内光合作用的生理过程,且其高频变化与气象条件密切相关。土壤水含量和SIF的关系是非线性的,当降水持续偏多导致土壤偏涝时,牧草的生理代谢减弱,光合作用减缓(SIF值偏低);当前期降水适量导致土壤湿润,且太阳辐射较强时,SIF值可以持续稳定在较高水平,植物光合作用旺盛,长势良好。而在生长季后期,偏凉的秋雨会显著降低植物的光合作用,且后期难以恢复。     

WRF模式对中国城市和半干旱地区 气象要素的模拟检验和对比分析

用中尺度数值天气模式 Weather Research and Forecasting Model（WRF v32）对2006年中国地区1、4、7、10月4个月（分别对应冬、春、夏、秋）近地层气象要素进行模拟。并利用通榆、榆中和上海站的观测资料对模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明：WRF模式能较好的模拟出各气象要素的变化特征。但是,各个季节的模拟效果并不相同。在半干旱的通榆和榆中两站,有关要素秋季的模拟最好,夏季较差。在上海站,夏秋两季比较差,冬春两季较好。对温度的模拟,上海站4个季节都偏低,通榆站夏季偏低,冬季偏高。 对风速的模拟,通榆和榆中两站（通榆秋季除外）都偏低,上海站（夏季除外）都偏高。对感热通量和潜热通量的模拟,通榆站夏季感热通量偏大,潜热通量偏小,榆中站夏季感热通量和潜热通量的模拟值都偏大。     

气象卫星资料在我国天气分析和预报上的应用

我国从1969年开始将气象卫星资料用于天气分析和预报。目前各省都有自动图片传送系统(APT)接收站。大多数自动图片传送系统(APT)接收站是接收泰罗斯-N(TIROS-N)卫星的低分辨扫描辐射仪云图,有几个站接收日本地球静止气象卫星云图,中央气象台还接收由华盛顿世界气象中心和日本气象厅发送的太平洋的卫星探空和测风资料。大多数天气预报部门的预报员在做短期预报时,常常参考卫星云图资料。根据近十年使用气象卫星资料的经验,我们认为卫星资料对于改善天气分析和预报是有用处的,尤其是在西藏高原和我国邻近海域,卫星资料是天气分析和预报的重要工具。     

Spatial and temporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and influenced meteorological factors in the Jialing River Basin,China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Reference evapotranspiration (ETr) is one of the important parameters in the hydrological cycle. The spatio-temporal variation of ETr and other meteorological...     

Sensitivity of evapotranspiration in a wheat field,a forest,and a grassland to changes in climate and direct effects of carbon dioxide

Micrometeorological and physiological measurements were used to develop Penman-Monteith models of evapotranspiration for a wheat field in eastern Nebraska, a forest in Tennessee, and a grassland in east-central Kansas. The model fit the measurements well over the periods of observation. Model sensitivities to changes in climatic and physiological parameters were then analyzed. The range of changes considered was established from recent general circulation model output and from review of recent plant physiological research. Finally, climate change scenarios produced by general circulation models for the locations and seasons matching the observed data were applied to the micrometeorological models. Simulation studies show that when all climatic and plant factors are considered, evapotranspiration estimates can differ greatly from those that consider only temperature. Depending on ecosystem and on climate and plant input used, evapotranspiration can differ from the control (no climate or plant change) by about -20 to +40%.     

Trends of surface ozone concentrations in germany and their connections with changes in meteorological variables

Changes in daily mean and daily maximum surface ozone concentrations, temperature, and relative humidity are evaluated based on the data of long-term observations (from 11 to 16 years) carried out at eight German stations. For all stations the trends of daily mean surface ozone concentration are statistically significant and positive. The trend values are different and generally range from 0 to 10% per 10 years. The trends of the maximum daily concentration are, on average, approximately 1.5 times less. Noticeable part of trends of the surface ozone concentration is connected with the trends of meteorological variables: temperature, relative humidity, and air mass transport direction. After the account of the influence of the trends of meteorological variables, the trends of the surface ozone concentration at most stations substantially decrease. The highest trend values of daily mean and daily maximum surface ozone concentrations are observed in a cold season; in a warm season, the trend values are much lower, at some stations they are statistically insignificant. A conclusion is made that for a correct revealing of reasons of long-term changes in the surface ozone concentration one should take into account changes in meteorological factors influencing its formation.     

我省气象档案利用工作中存在的问题及对策

本文结合山西省气象档案利用状况,详细分析了气象档案利用工作中的问题及其原因,并就提高气象档案的利用水平提出了对策建议,对开发气象档案的利用水平有较好的促进作用。     

浅谈现代电子技术在我国气象领域中的应用与发展

本文对现代电子技术在我国气象业务中的应用进行了概述，从现代气象通信，电子计算机，气象雷达，气象卫生等方面论述了电子技术在我国气象事业中的应用和发展，并为进一步加强气象现代化建设发表了看法。     

旋转经验正交函数分解回归方法在东北夏季气温季节预测和成因诊断中的应用

利用中国东北4省/区73个地面气象观测站1971—2011年6—8月月平均气温,以及NCEP/NCAR再分析1971—2011年月平均高度和NOAA月平均海表温度（SST）资料,基于主成分回归（PCR）预测方法的思想,用同年1—5月北半球大气环流和全球SST场建立了东北地区夏季气温的统计预测模型,该建模方法是主成分回归方法的变形,计算方法较为简易,对气温等级的季节预测有较好的预报效果;并用其计算过程做了前期气候成因诊断。考虑到旋转经验正交函数分解样本误差较小、空间模态结构清晰,但特征向量的时间系数在不同时段有所变化的特点,故使用旋转经验正交函数分解整个时段的东北夏季气温场,然后基于旋转经验正交函数分解结果,进行前期影响因子甄别,最后建立多元线性逐步回归预测模型,建模期为前30年,独立样本预报期为后11年。30 a逐年交叉回报检验和11 a独立样本预测效果都显示该模型具有较高的预报技巧,尤其对气温等级的预测具有参考价值。用预测模型的中间过程诊断了东北夏季各月某一类典型气温异常的前期成因：5月北极涛动和北大西洋涛动（AO/NAO）、北太平洋涛动（NPO）以及副热带纬向一致异常型（SZ）等大气大尺度低频波动对6月吉林和辽宁省气温异常有显著影响;3月北极涛动和北大西洋涛动、东太平洋涛动（EP）及欧亚遥相关型波列对7月内蒙古东北部气温异常有显著影响;5月在北半球中高纬度大尺度低频波列不显著的情况下,SZ型低频波列对8月内蒙古东北部部分地区和黑龙江中、西部等地气温异常有显著影响;前期海温呈厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）型、同时北大西洋海温三极子为正（负）位相,一般与导致东北6月和7月偏冷（暖）的大气环流型相匹配;春末热带印度洋全区海表温度一致异常模态（IOBM）正（负）位相与导致东北8月偏暖（冷）的大气环流型相匹配。     

Nonlinear dynamics of meteorological variables: multifractality and chaotic invariants in daily records from Pastaza, Ecuador

Weather represents the daily state of the atmosphere. It is usually considered as a chaotic nonlinear dynamical system. The objectives of the present study were (1) to investigate multifractal meteorological trends and rhythms at the Amazonian area of Ecuador and (2) to estimate some nonlinear invariants for describing the meteorological dynamics. Six meteorological variables were considered in the study. Datasets were collected on a daily basis from January 1st 2001 to January 1st 2005 (1,460 observations). Based on a new multifractal method, we found interesting fractal rhythms and trends of antipersistence patterns (Fractal Dimension >1.5). Nonlinear time series analyses rendered Lyapunov exponent spectra containing more than one positive Lyapunov exponent in some cases. This sort of hyperchaotic structures could explain, to some extent, larger fractal dimension values as the Kaplan–Yorke dimension was also in most cases larger than two. The maximum prediction time ranged from ξ?=?1.69 days (approximately 41 h) for E/P ratio to ξ?=?14.71 days for evaporation. Nonlinear dynamics analyses could be combined with multifractal studies for describing the time evolution of meteorological variables.     

Ensemble simulation of land evapotranspiration in China based on a multi-forcing and multi-model approach

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model(LSM) simulations of land evapotranspiration(ET), we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS(Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Qian] and four LSMs(BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5), to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over mainland China during 1982–2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean(Ens Mean) could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates(Obs MTE). For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens Mean was closer to Obs MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs MTE and Ens Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982–98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Ni ?no event occurred, the Ens Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.     

Application of soft computing based hybrid models in hydrological variables modeling: a comprehensive review

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Snow is a key element for many socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions. Due to the sensitivity of the snow cover to variations of temperature and...     

“中国天气通广西决策版”手机气象服务系统的研发与应用

以WEB、JAVA和VB.NET技术为依托,建立了"中国天气通广西决策版"手机气象服务系统平台,并对其构建流程和功能模块进行了详细的介绍。     

1961-2010 年东北地区降水事件时空均匀性研究

利用1961-2010年东北三省和内蒙古四盟90个气象站逐日降水资料,分析了中国东北地区降水事件的气候特征及时空分布均匀性变化。结果表明：近50 a来,东北地区年降水量略有减少,但冬、春季降水量显著增加;考虑降水日数,冬、春季降水量增加主要是由于降水强度的增加,夏、秋季降水量减少主要是由于降水频次的减少。气候变暖的大背景下,虽然年降水量线性变化趋势并不明显,但是降水量年际间分布不均匀性增加,降水有向极端化发展的趋势,夏、秋季表现更为明显,各等级降水事件尤其是降雪在近20 a时间分布明显不均匀。降水量空间均匀性在1993年发生转折突变,突变后空间不均匀性增加,降水日数空间均匀性在1986年发生变率突变,突变后振荡加剧。降水事件时空不均匀性的增加一定程度上造成了东北地区旱涝事件发生可能性增加,不同地域旱涝事件同发现象加剧。