A multi-model ensemble approach for assessment of climate change impact on surface winds in France

Statistical downscaling of 14 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) is presented to assess potential changes of the 10 m wind speeds in France. First, a statistical downscaling method is introduced to estimate daily mean 10 m wind speed at specific sites using general circulation model output. Daily 850 hPa wind field has been selected as the large scale circulation predictor. The method is based on a classification of the daily wind fields into a few synoptic weather types and multiple linear regressions. Years are divided into an extended winter season from October to March and an extended summer season from April to September, and the procedure is conducted separately for each season. ERA40 reanalysis and observed station data have been used to build and validate the downscaling algorithm over France for the period 1974–2002. The method is then applied to 14 AOGCMs of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset. Three time periods are focused on: a historical period (1971–2000) from the climate of the twentieth century experiment and two climate projection periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from the IPCC SRES A1B experiment. Evolution of the 10 m wind speed in France and associated uncertainties are discussed. Significant changes are depicted, in particular a decrease of the wind speed in the Mediterranean area. Sources of those changes are investigated by quantifying the effects of changes in the weather type occurrences, and modifications of the distribution of the days within the weather types.     

修正WRF次网格地形方案及其对风速模拟的影响

复杂地形区域风场模拟的准确率一直是风能研究领域的难点和重点。WRF模式是目前风能评估领域应用最广泛的天气数值模式之一,但该模式在复杂地形区域存在对平原、山谷风速高估且对山顶风速低估的系统性误差,并有研究建立次网格地形方案以订正误差。而次网格地形方案在不同水平分辨率下常出现错误的修正结果,该文基于高精度地形高程数据分析了方案失效的主要原因,发现其方程组中判断山体形态特征的阈值-20在过低和过高水平分辨率下均失去参考性。针对这一原因,将方案中影响关键参数C_t的地形高度算子与模式水平分辨率进行拟合,形成地形高度算子与水平分辨率相依赖的线性关系,获得不同分辨率下更适合的山体形态阈值。通过与自动气象站10 m风速对比分析了修正前后WRF对低层风速的模拟效果,结果显示:修正后的次网格地形方案能够分别在较低和较高分辨率下,部分矫正原方案错误的订正结果,使低层风速模拟更接近实况。修正后的次网格地形方案可为复杂地形区域开展高分辨率风场模拟提供参考。     

关中盆地近地面风场和大气输送特征分析

利用2017年151个地面气象站的逐时观测数据和相关高空资料分析关中盆地近地面风场与输送特征。首先分析盆地内代表性站点的风速和风向观测事实,然后用CALMET风场诊断模式和轨迹计算模式获取当地逐小时风场和每日逐小时传输轨迹,分析风场类型。结果表明:关中盆地内日平均风速约1～3 m s?1,夏季风速高、秋冬季低;盆地中央的主导风向以沿地形走向的东北风和西南风为主,盆地四周测站的主导风向表现出顺着地形向盆地中央汇流的趋势。各站主导风向的季节变化不大。盆地内风场分为系统控制型、弱天气背景型和局地环流型3类,全年出现日数比例分别占8%、17.3%和74.7%。以山谷风日夜循环为特征的局地环流型风场最多。以西安城区为源点的大气输送轨迹显示,系统控制型风场以偏东北方向的输送为主,弱天气背景型和局地环流型风场的轨迹输送都大致以偏东北和偏西（以及偏西南）沿盆地走向以及偏东南朝向秦岭山地这三个方向为主。局地环流型的轨迹影响范围小,集中于盆地中央和南侧山地之间,表明这是一种不利于污染扩散的风场类型。     

基于风速高相关分区的风电场风速预报订正

为了提高风电场风速预报和功率预测的精度和准确率,并考虑风机测风数据的不稳定因素,以多年服务的内蒙古中部某风力发电场A为研究区,在勘察风电场地形及风机布局后,按照季节、风向进行风机间风速时空相关性分析,划分出风机轮毂高度风速高相关为典型特征的风机网格分类片区,采用卡尔曼滤波方法,通过直接和间接两种订正方案,分别进行风机片区风速订正。结果表明:风速高相关风机片区的划分,对于提高风电场风速预报及功率预测精度和准确率具有一定作用,利用风电场区测风塔梯度观测风速,对风机片区进行间接订正,可有效改善数值模式预报风速,15个片区类型下相关系数由0.18~0.72提高至0.67~0.91,误差绝对值由1.6~2.9 m·s-1降低至1.0~1.5 m·s-1。     

凉山州风资源分布特征分析

利用凉山州17站近40年10m风塔及部分区域站风的观测资料,对风速的年际变化、月变化、日变化及代表站点的风速频率、有效风时数、平均风能密度进行了计算和统计,并结合地形地貌进行了分析。结果表明:凉山州风资源地形效应显著、季节性强、风向稳定。以德昌为代表的安宁河沿线风资源较为丰富,是风资源可利用区;盐源、普格、喜德县境内一些风速较大的平坝、山口、河谷为风资源季节性可利用区;雷波、金阳、木里等县的大部分地区风资源贫乏。      

A Cluster Space Calibration Scheme for Synthetic Wind Statistics Calculated with a Mesoscale Model and its Application to Regional Wind Climate Studies

Summary ?A scheme for calibrating an ensemble of wind fields computed by a mesoscale model in order to generate synthetic wind statistics is described. It is based on two main points. The first is to exploit the power of a mesoscale model to determine wind fields over complex terrain for different weather situations classified by cluster analysis. The second is to use all the information in the cluster analysis, i.e., the centroid values as well as the internal standard deviations of the clusters, to determine a cluster space distribution at each grid point in the model domain. The latter makes calibration possible if reliable measurements are available at the position of one of the grid points. The accuracy of the calibration is increased by splitting the cluster spaces into several parts. Combining both the modelled mesoscale wind fields and the method of split cluster spaces leads to a spatial transformation of the calibration from the calibration point to each grid point in the model domain. A validation of the scheme is carried out with measurements at grid points other than the calibration point and reveals remarkable improvements in the accuracy of the model wind statistics, especially with regard to wind speed distributions. Received October 8, 1998/Revised March 19, 1999     

Vertical Interactions in a Nocturnal Multi-Scale Wind System Influenced by Atmospheric Stability in a Coastal Area

Summary  The winter wind regime of G?teborg, located on the West coast of Sweden, is composed of three different wind systems besides the ambient wind; a nocturnal low level jet (NLLJ), a winter land breeze (WLB) and an urban heat island circulation (UHIC). An inversion divides the air column into two layers, one between 10 – 50 m and one between 50 – 100 m. The UHIC is located in the lower layer, the WLB in the top layer and the NLLJ above the top layer. The intensity of the interacting processes depends on the stability of each layer as calculated from the bulk Richardson number (BRi_low and BRi_high) using continuous data collected during four years (1991 – 94) from two sites (one within and one outside the urban area) and sampled at three levels. In the evening the WLB develops from the ground level and increases in height until after midnight. At about the same time an UHIC develops in the urban area, below the WLB and causing an uplift of the latter. However, at both sites the WLB does not exceed the 100 m level. At this time BRi in both layers are below one resulting in continuous coupling between the WLB, the UHIC layers and the regional wind. Consequently, the exchange of momentum is still effective between all layers and this is highlighted by a change in the wind direction and a regulation of wind-speed to more constant levels. When BRi_high≥1, the layers become frictionally decoupled, as indicated by a return in the wind direction in the top level to the regional wind, and an acceleration of the top wind. The top level then becomes incorporated in to a nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ) system. The normally acknowledged development of the NLLJ, with a start around sunset, is in this case delayed for several hours at the top level. The reason for this is that there are meso-scale/local wind systems present in layers beneath the jet causing an interaction between the layers. In the morning, when the layers are again coupled the top layer wind is once more influenced by the WLB and therefore changes direction and speed. The local and meso-scale wind systems thus delay the current nocturnal wind development. Received August 24, 1998 Revised March 17, 1999     

A Study of Orographic Blocking and Barrier Wind Development Upstream of the Southern Alps, New Zealand

Summary Upper level and surface wind data for 1994 are used to provide an initial identification of the orographic effect on regional airflow patterns upwind of the mountain barrier. A case study of the development of upstream blocking and barrier jets is also provided. The predominance of gradient airflow from between northwest and southwest through this region results in frequent trans-mountain winds. The mountains are seen to have a major effect on airflow in the lowest 2000 m above sea level, with clear evidence of orographic blocking and barrier wind development. Some variability in the extent of this blocking was noted during 1994, which appeared to be associated with changes in the synoptic circulation and air mass characteristics. The frequent occurrence of southwesterly winds between 300 m and 2000 m indicates significant deflection of the predominant winds to follow the southwest-northeast orientation of the mountains. These southwesterly barrier winds occur in opposition to the apparent pressure gradient. Northeasterly barrier winds occur mainly below 300 m, and represent a down-gradient, localised flow that is frequently separated from overlying northwesterly gradient winds by a transitional layer, within which the wind backs with height. The controls of the extent of orographic blocking are only assessed superficially, due to the lack of good thermodynamic data upstream of the mountains, although a combination of wind speed and atmospheric stability is obviously important. These initial results provide a useful insight into the extent of orographic effects on regional windfields, which will serve as the basis for future observational and modelling studies. Received June 11, 1998 Revised April 16, 1999     

Statistical-dynamical downscaling of wind roses over the Czech Republic

The present study describes a new method for statistical-dynamical downscaling that combines two different approaches, namely, a set of patterns simulated with a numerical flow model and a transformation function used to process both calculated data and measurements at a reference station. The combined method produces wind roses and wind speed histograms at an arbitrary location in the model domain. The inflow wind direction represented the key parameter to define a set of wind field simulations. The other two inflow parameters, namely, thermal stratification and geostrophic wind speed, were derived from corresponding averaged soundings. The results showed that in the Czech Republic, there are areas where wind roses are deformed by the surrounding terrain. The deformations occur in relatively shallow and wide valleys, and they are more sensitive to the inflow wind direction. Calculated wind roses are compared to corresponding observations at 22 synoptic stations. The most frequent wind direction sector in simulations agreed with measurements at 17 stations. The resulting error in frequency in that sector was under 5 % at 10 stations. In general, the main features of the wind roses are modelled well, even at a relatively large distance from the reference station. However, better performance was achieved for smaller distances between reference station and the site. In further studies, a more extensive set of flow patterns with reduced intervals of thermal stratification and wind speed will likely improve calculated wind roses.     

Vertical Variation of Madden-Jullian Oscillations in the Normal Monsoon Season as Revealed Through MST Radar Wind Data

Summary  Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere (MST) Radar wind data for the period June through September 1996 have been examined to study vertical variation of Madden-Jullian Oscillations in wind and eddy kinetic energy (eke) in the normal monsoon season. The domain of analysis in the vertical is from 6 to 20 km with a height resolution of 150 m. Fast-Fourier-Transformation (FFT) has been applied to zonal (u), meridional(v) components of wind to extract the Madden-Jullian oscillations and eke. There are three dominant modes viz., 50–70, 30–40 and 10–20 day periodicity, which contain considerable fraction of energy and show high degree of vertical variability. The peak amplitude of 50–70 day mode in u, 30–40 mode in v and eke were observed at 16–17 km just below the tropopause level. The peak amplitudes of 30–40 day mode in u and 50–70 day mode in v were found in the height region of 13–16 km. To understand the origin and propagation of these waves, wave energy is calculated. The wave energy is higher at tropospheric heights than at lower stratospheric heights indicating that the origin of these waves is in the troposphere, and a part of the energy leaks into the stratosphere. Received September 17, 1998/Revised September 26, 1999     

基于ASCAT风场数据的中国近海风能资源评估

卫星反演海面风场资料能够弥补海上气象测风资料缺乏的不足,对近海风能资源评估具有重要意义。通过ASCAT(Advanced Scatterometer)风速数据与美国及中国近海岸浮标测风资料的对比分析,结果表明,ASCAT风速的均方根误差为1.27 m·s-1。比较利用近海岸浮标逐小时风速及与其相匹配ASCAT瞬时风速计算的各项风能参数,得出ASCAT与浮标的平均风速和风功率密度的残差分别在±0.5 m·s-1和±50 W·m-2以内,该残差占浮标计算结果的比例分别在±8%和±12%以内。使用ASCAT风速资料拟合的Weibull分布函数与浮标的结果较吻合。因此,ASCAT风速资料也能够为海上风能资源评估提供有用的风能参数信息。最后使用ASCAT瞬时风速数据分析了中国近海10 m及70 m高度处的风能资源的空间分布特征,结果表明,台湾海峡平均风速和风功率密度最大。     

风电场风电功率短期预报方法比较

通过开展湖北省九宫山风电场短期风电功率预报方法的研究,以不断提高预报准确率,为风电场提供更有价值的预报服务,该文利用MM5耦合CALMET模式模拟风电场风速资料,采用物理法和动力统计法探讨风电场各种情况下预报应用效果。结果表明:模拟风速释用订正能有效降低风速预报误差,但难以修正预报趋势;动力统计法更适用于九宫山风电场的复杂山区地形,可能由于该方法能自发适应风电场地理位置;采用实测数据建立的风电功率预报模型优于理论风电功率模型,这也与风机实际运行环境会影响风机输出功率有关。     

大规模风电场建成后对风能资源影响的研究

考虑了千万千瓦级风电基地建成后风电机群对近地面层风速的影响,采用Frandsen研究了大规模风电场内部风速损失时所使用的方法,在内边界层已经充分发展成新边界层的区域内,对轮毂高度65m处风速Uh进行了计算。结果表明,风电场建成后研究区内,风速Uh与未建场时的65m风速U0相比变小,存在风速损失,该风速损失随着U0的增大而减小,与风电机的推力系数CT性质有关;大规模风电场建成后,Uh在3～20m.s-1范围内的平均风功率密度与未建场时U0在此范围内的平均风功率密度相比损失约为58.45%,这与建场地区建场前65m处风速值大小以及各风速值出现的概率有关。     

CALMET模式不同参数化方案对江西省山地风场模拟的对比分析

通过降尺度模式CALMET不同参数化方案对江西山地风场测风塔风速风向模拟结果的对比分析,选取出适合山地风场模拟的最优参数化方案,并进行连续一年的模拟效果检验。结果表明:CALMET模式以不采用地形动力效应参数调整和Froude数调整,采用下坡气流效应调整和O’Brien垂直风速调整时,对江西省境内山地风场50 m以上高度层风场模拟效果最佳。最优参数化方案不仅能较好地模拟出山地风场测风塔逐时风速,并且对全年风速段分布模拟有较好的结果。CALMET模式能模拟出实际测风塔全年主导风向,但模拟与实测结果主导风向分布约有一个方位的偏差,主导风向频率有7%~8%的偏差。     

Classification of the stratified atmospheric boundary layers at Molve (Croatia) based on the similarity theory

Summary The stability parameter μ is suggested as the one which is determinable with satisfying accuracy for routine application by means of commonly accessible meteorological data at the Molve location (Croatia). The similarity functions applied for vertical wind speed simulation in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) at Molve were useful for the determination of local stability classes. Universal similarity functions were applied for unstable and neutral stability, whereas local similarity functions were established for stable stratification. Wind speed simulations were performed using two types of wind models. The Monin-Obukhov similarity theory was included in both types. However, it turned out that for the operative determination of the stability of the 35 m deep lowest layer, the stability parameter μ was locally a better stability parameter than the Monin-Obukhov parameter z/L. That was possibly because 35 m deep lowest layer sometimes (depending upon stability) includes a large proportion of the Ekman layer and parameter μ is originally designed for the deeper part of PBL than z/L that is originally designed for the surface layer. At Molve, the input data for local wind models as well as for the stability parameter μ were wind speed at 35 m and temperature at 2 and 35 m above the ground.     

基于大涡模拟的冬奥赛区风环境精细化评估

风是北京冬奥会场外赛事考虑的首要气象因素,精细评估竞赛场地核心区域风环境对赛道施工建设、遴选防风方案及赛事安排非常必要.以北京冬奥会延庆赛区为中心,将2009-2021年冬奥赛事月份(2-3月)天气环流场进行客观天气环流分型(分为93组),采用北京城市气象研究院睿图-大涡模式系统对各组的典型个例开展37 m×37 m分...     

Identification and Implications of Biases in U.S. Surface Wind Observation, Archival, and Summarization Methods

Summary Observational biases in hourly surface wind speed and direction measurements from 41 northeastern U.S. stations are evaluated. Based on this analysis, a number of consistent wind observation biases are detected which should be considered when using these data in modeling and other climatological applications. These biases include a preference to report wind speed as a multiple of either 2 or 5 kt and a similar bias for reporting even, in terms of tens of degrees, wind directions. Temporal and station-dependent trends in estimating winds less than the starting speed of the anemometer are also evident. Given these biases, potential inaccuracies in analyses using wind data are illustrated. In addition, analyses are conducted to identify biases related to archival and summarization practices. In particular, the comparability of wind climatologies based on varying record lengths is determined. These assessments suggest that at least nine years of data are required to obtain representative wind frequency tabulations. The potential consequences of using too small of a record length are also illustrated. To achieve this minimum record length, climatologies can be constructed using either hourly or 3-hourly observations. Received February 26, 1996 Revised April 21, 1997     

Regional effects of large-scale extreme wind events over orographically structured terrain

Summary ?Above orographically structured terrain considerable differences of the regional wind field may be identified during large-scale extreme wind events. So far, these regional differences could not be resolved by climate models. To determine the relationships between large-scale atmospheric conditions, the influence of orography, and the regional wind field, data measured in the upper Rhine valley within the framework of the REKLIP Regional Climate Project were analyzed and calculations were made using the KAMM mesoscale model. In the area of the upper Rhine valley, ratios of the wind velocity in the Rhine valley at 10 m above ground level, ν_val, and the large-scale flow velocity, ν_lar, are between ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 0.1 and ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 1. The ν_val/ν_lar ratio exhibits a strong dependence on thermal stratification, δ, and decreases from ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 1 at δ = 0 K m⁻¹ to ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 0.2 at δ = 0.0075 K m⁻¹. In areas, where the lateral mountainous border of the Rhine valley is interrupted, the ν_val/ν_lar ratio increases again with increasing stability or decreasing Froude number. This is obviously due to flow around the Black Forest under stable stratification. It is demonstrated by model calculations that a complex wind field develops in the Rhine valley at small Froude numbers (Fr < 1) irrespective of the direction of large-scale flow. The ν_val/ν_lar ratio is characterized by small values in the direct lee side (ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 0.2) and high values on the windward side of the lateral mountainous border of the Rhine valley (ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 0.8). Received October 22, 2001; revised June 18, 2002; accepted June 23, 2002     

Modification of the local winds due to hypothetical urbanization of the Zagreb surroundings

Summary The aim of this study was to investigate possible effects of two hypothetical scenarios of the urbanization of Zagreb’s surroundings on the local winds, which are established under summertime anticyclonic conditions. For this purpose, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale meteorological model MEMO was applied to the greater Zagreb area. Three simulations were performed. One employed the current land-use distribution, while the other two corresponded to an increase of the densely urbanized area by 12.5% (test 1) and 37.5% (test 2), respectively. Apart from the hypothetically urbanized areas, where average surface wind speed reductions of 8% and 18% were obtained for test 1 and test 2, respectively, the rest of the domain was not significantly affected by hypothetical urbanization. The differences between the wind vectors for the predicted current state and the hypothetical state were more pronounced and found at higher altitudes during the night compared to daytime values. For all three simulations the same diurnal variation of the depth of anabatic/katabatic wind flow generated on south-facing slopes of 1 km high mountain Medvednica was obtained. During the night the depth of well-developed katabatic flow was about 370 m, while during the day the depth of anabatic flow grew from about 550 m in the late morning up to about 1140 m in the late afternoon. Received October 27, 2000 Revised August 4, 2001     

Numerical analysis of a thermotopographically-induced mesoscale circulation in a mountain basin using a non-hydrostatic model

Summary The boundary-layer wind field during weak synoptic conditions is largely controlled by the nature of the landscape. Mesoscale (sub-synoptic) circulations result from horizontal gradients of sensible heat flux due to variation in local topography, variation in surface-cover, and discontinuities such as land-sea contrasts. Such flows are usually referred to as thermally-driven circulations, and are diurnal in nature and often predictable. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic computer model to shed light on the physical mechanisms that drive a persistent easterly wind that develops in the afternoon in the Mackenzie Basin, New Zealand. The easterly – Canterbury Plains Breeze (CPB) – is observed early in the afternoon and is often intense, with mean wind speeds reaching up to 12 m s⁻¹. Although computer modelling in mountainous terrain is extremely challenging, the model is able to simulate this circulation satisfactorily. To further investigate the mechanisms that generate the Canterbury Plains Breeze, two additional idealized model experiments are performed. With each experiment, the effects of the synoptic scale wind and the ocean around the South Island, New Zealand were successively removed. The results show that contrary to previous suggestions, the Canterbury Plains Breeze is not an intrusion of the coastal sea breeze or the Canterbury north-easterly, but can be generated by heating of the basin alone. This conclusion highlights the importance of mountain basins and saddles in controlling near-surface wind regimes in complex terrain.