边界层动力过程在Madden-Julian振荡发展中的作用

利用包括边界层爱克曼辐合－降水加热过程在内的短期气候变化模式［１］，研究了Ｍａｄｄｅｎ－Ｊｕｌｉａｎ振荡［１１，１２］形成的机制。当经圈方向用抛物圆柱函数展开，并对赤道偶对称解取ｎ＝０，２，４三个截断模时，在长波近似下的自由波解，一为向东的Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波，另外两支为向西的Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波。当考虑边界层动力影响后，修正后的Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波，其向东传播的速度约为１０ｍｓ－１，且在长波波段是不稳定的，最不稳定的波出现在纬向一波附近，不稳定增长率的量级约为Ｏ（１０ｍ－６ｓ－１），理论结果和Ｍａｄｄｅｎ－Ｊｕｌｉａｎ振荡在赤道附近主体环流东传的观测事实接近。另外两支修正后的Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波，其中经圈尺度较小的那支波，除波长极长的波外，波是阻尼的；但另一支经圈尺度较大的波，在短的波段是不稳定增长的，这似乎可以用来解释Ｍａｄｄｅｎ－Ｊｕｌｉａｎ振荡中大尺度超级云团的西传过程。这些结果表明边界层动力过程在Ｍａｄｄｅｎ－Ｊｕｌｉａｎ振荡的形成中是一种重要的机制。     

THE ROLES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DYNAMICS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION*

In this paper,a tropical atmospheric model of relevance to shorts-term climate variations(Wang and Li 1993) is utilized for study of the development of Madden-Julian oscillation.The model contains an interactive process of boundary-layer Ekman convergence and precipitation heating.The model is solved by expanding dependent variables in terms of parabolic cylindrical functions in the meridional direction and truncating three meridional modes n=0,2,4 for equatorial symmetric solutions.The free wave solutions obtained under long-wave approximation are induced as a Kelvin wave and two Rossby waves.After considering the effect of boundary-layer dynamic process,the modified Kelvin wave becomes unstable in long-wave bands with a typical growth rate on an order of 10^-6 s^-1and an eastward phase speed of 10 m s^-1;the most unstable mode is wavenumber one.These theoretical results are consistent with the observed Madden-Julian oscillation in equatorial area.For the two modified Rossby waves,one with a smaller meridional scale(n=4) decays except for extra long-waves;the other with a larger meridional scale(n=2) grows in short-wave bands.This may be relevant to explaining the westward propagation of super cloud clusters in the Madden-Julian oscillation.The theory suggests that the boundary-layer dynamic process is an important mechanism in the development of the Madden-Julian oscillation.     

THE ROLES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DYNAMICS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

In this paper,a tropical atmospheric model of relevance to shorts-term climate variations(Wang and Li 1993)is util-ized for study of the development of Madden-Julian oscillation.The model contains an interactive process ofboundary-layer Ekman convergence and precipitation heating.The model is solved by expanding dependent variables interms of parabolic cylindrical functions in the meridional direction and truncating three meridional modes n=0,2,4 forequatorial symmetric solutions.The free wave solutions obtained under long-wave approximation are induced as aKelvin wave and two Rossby waves.After considering the effect of boundary-layer dynamic process,the modifiedKelvin wave becomes unstable in long-wave bands with a typical growth rate on an order of 10~(-6) s~(-1)and an eastwardphase speed of 10 m s~(-1);the most unstable mode is wavenumber one.These theoretical results are consistent with the ob-served Madden-Julian oscillation in equatorial area.For the two modified Rossby waves,one with a smaller meridionalscale(n=4)decays except for extra long-waves;the other with a larger meridional scale(n=2)grows in short-wavebands.This may be relevant to explaining the westward propagation of super cloud clusters in the Madden-Julianoscillation.The theory suggests that the boundary-layer dynamic process is an important mechanism in the develop-ment of the Madden-Julian oscillation.     

Coupling mechanisms between equatorial waves and cumulus convection in an AGCM

In this study, we focused on the difference in appearances of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) in a simulation with the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC AGCM, between two experiments, one with and the other without implementation of the convective suppression scheme (CSS) in the prognostic Arakawa–Schubert cumulus parameterization. Realistic CCEW modes, i.e., Kelvin, Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and n = 0 eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) wave modes, were reproduced in the with-CSS experiment, while only Rossby-wave-like signals appeared in the without-CSS experiment.By comparing the structures of the Kelvin wave mode and the Rossby wave mode in two runs, it was suggested that the structural difference between these two modes in conjunction with the difference in the controlling factor of cumulus convection determines the CCEW features. The CSS implemented here is such that cumulus convection is suppressed until the cloud-layer-averaged relative humidity exceeds the threshold of 80%. In the without-CSS model, only Rossby wave modes are coupled with the convection. This is because CAPE controls cumulus convection in this model, and the larger frictional convergence of Rossby wave mode prepares CAPE to generate favorable condition for cumulus convection. In the case of the with-CSS model, on the other hand, cumulus convection is largely controlled by the humidity in the free atmosphere. The convergence associated with the equatorial waves can produce the moisture anomaly to overcome the relative humidity threshold, and maintains the favorable condition for cumulus convection once it starts. In this case, not only Rossby waves but also Kelvin, MRG, and n = 0 EIG waves are reproduced more realistically. It is suggested that inclusion of some kind of mechanism connecting the free tropospheric moisture with the convection under the condition of abundant convective available potential energy could be a key factor for realistic coupling between large-scale atmospheric waves and convection.     

Development and propagation of equatorial waves

Development and propagation of equatorial waves are investigated with the model which includes convection -wave convergence feedback and convection-frictional convergence feedback. Two experiments with an initial Kelvin wave (Exp. K) and with an initial Rossby wave (Exp. R) are carried out. The equatorial waves in Exp. R grow much faster than those in Exp. K. The equatorial waves in both experiments follow zonal (eastward / westward) and meridional (poleward) propagation. The equatorial waves can be partitioned into two meridional modes using Parabolic Cylinder Function. An equa?tor mode denotes a wave component with a positive precipitation center at the equator and an off-equator mode rep?resents a wave component with positive precipitation centers off the equator. The equator mode dominates in Exp. K whereeas the off-equator mode dominates in Exp. R. The rapid wave growth in Exp. R is interpreted by analyzing the eddy available potential energy (EAPE) generation. Stronger off-equator mode in Exp. R obtains more EAPE through convection-frictional convergence feedback which results in more rapid wave growth. The relative vorticity tendency is determined by interactions between Earth’s vorticity and lower-troposphere convergence (divergence effect) and between the meridional gradient and lower-troposphere circulation (beta effect). The eastward and poleward propagation of equatorial waves is a result of the divergence effect, and the westward movement is caused by the beta effect.     

与季节内振荡-超级云团系统相关的赤道波的识别

文中重点研究与热带季节内振荡－超级云团系统相关联的赤道波的识别。考虑到赤道波的本质为截获在赤道地区的一般的气候平衡场附近的线性动力过程的固有模态,首先从原理上阐明了ＰＯＰｓ分析技术对于分离各类赤道波动的有效性,以后利用这种分析方法对日本静止气象卫星所观测到的黑体红外辐射温度资料进行了ＰＯＰｓ分析。结果表明,在热带季节内振荡－超级云团系统中,对应于４０ｄ振荡的模态基本表现为Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波的结构;对应于１０ｄ左右的模态,亦为Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波,而在２ｄ尺度上,则分别存在经向模态序号ｎ＝１和ｎ＝２的西进和东进惯性重力波。分析中还发现了西进的混合Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ重力波的存在。     

El Nio事件发生和消亡中热带太平洋纬向风应力的动力作用 Ⅱ.模式结果分析

为了分析 ＥＩ Ｎｉｏ事件发生和消亡中热带太平洋纬向风应力的动力作用，建立一个类似于Ｚｅｂｉａｋ的简单热带海洋数值模式，在观测到的风应力异常的强迫下，模拟赤道太平洋地区 １９７１年１月至 １９９８年８月海表温度异常的变化。结果表明，模式对观测的Ｎｉｏ３区海表温度异常（ＳＳＴＡ）有很好的模拟能力。模拟和观测Ｎｉ区ＳＳＴＡ之间的相关系数可达 ０．９０。模式对 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｏ事件期间赤道太平洋海表温度异常随时间变化也有较好的模拟能力。为了分析Ｅｌ Ｎｉｏ期间ＳＳＴＡ的空间分布及其随时间变化的动力学机制，还对１９８６～１９８９年 ＥＮＳＯ循环期间赤道太平洋地区观测的 ＳＳＴＡ的传播特征及其形成机制进行了分析。模式较好地模拟出了观测到的赤道太平洋地区ＳＳＴＡ的传播特征，即从１９８６年底至１９８７年 ４月， ＳＳＴＡ具有向东传播的特征，从 １９８７年 ６月至 １９８８年 ２月具有向西传播的特征。动力学分析的结果表明，赤道中西太平洋地区的缔向风应力异常对 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｏ事件的发生和消亡具有重要作用。赤道中西太平洋地区的西风异常可强迫出东传的Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波，这个东传的 Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波对正 ＳＳＴＡ的东传起主要作用，当这个东传的 Ｋｅｌｖ     

副热带环流系统在福建春季中期预报中的应用

应用谐谱分析同天气图相结合的方法，将１９８９－１９９２年春季２－４月（其中缺１９８９年４月资料）副热带地区超长波分东进型，西退型和稳定加深（强）型；长波分为准静止长波、不连续西退长波和东进长波三种类型，不同的超长波，长波流型给福建春季带不同的中期天气过程。     

El Nino事件发生和消亡中热带太平洋纬向风应力的动力作用 II.模式结果分析

为了分析ElNio事件发生和消亡中热带太平洋纬向风应力的动力作用，建立一个类似于Zebiak的简单热带海洋数值模式，在观测到的风应力异常的强迫下，模拟赤道太平洋地区1971年1月至1998年8月海表温度异常的变化。结果表明，模式对观测的Nio3区海表温度异常(SSTA)有很好的模拟能力。模拟和观测Nio3区SSTA之间的相关系数可达0.90。模式对ElNio事件期间赤道太平洋海表温度异常随时间变化也有较好的模拟能力。为了分析ElNio期间SSTA的空间分布及其随时间变化的动力学机制，还对19861989年ENSO循环期间赤道太平洋地区观测的SSTA的传播特征及其形成机制进行了分析。模式较好地模拟出了观测到的赤道太平洋地区SSTA的传播特征，即从1986年底至1987年4月，SSTA具有向东传播的特征，从1987年6月至1988年2月具有向西传播的特征。动力学分析的结果表明，赤道中西太平洋地区的纬向风应力异常对ElNio事件的发生和消亡具有重要作用。赤道中西太平洋地区的西风异常可强迫出东传的Kelvin波，这个东传的Kelvin波对正SSTA的东传起主要作用，当这个东传的Kelvin波到达东边界，由于东边界的反射作用，在东边界产生西传的Rossby波，这个西传的Rossby波对赤道中东太平洋地区正SSTA的西传起主要作用。东传Kelvin波和反射的Rossby波对ElNio期间赤道东太平洋正SSTA二次峰值的形成具有重要作用。     

Evidence for zonally-trapped propagating waves in the eastern atlantic from satellite sea surface temperature observations

It has been hypothesized (Moore et al., 1978; O'Brien et al., 1978), that equatorial upwelling and subsequent coastal upwelling on the eastern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean are the result of eastward propagating equatorially trapped Kelvin waves in the Atlantic. Concurrent satellite and ship sea surface temperature observations taken during the GATE experiment permit validation of the satellite data as well as relating sea surface temperature (SST) variability to the local current dynamics. A method based on cross-correlations and cross-spectra of the SST field at various locations is utilized to test the Kelvin wave hypothesis. Significant periodic variation of time lags in the SST variability in the eastern Atlantic is observed by the spectral techniques. Satellite data for the 1974 summer show periodic variability which fits either eastward or westward propagating waves with 1 m s^-1 phase speed, i.e., SST supports the quasi-continuous presence of Kelvin or Yanai waves. We find no evidence for a seasonally solitary eastward propagating signal in the eastern Atlantic from SST.     

Model multi-cloud parameterizations for convectively coupled waves: Detailed nonlinear wave evolution

Recent observational analysis reveals the central role of three cloud types, congestus, stratiform, and deep-convective cumulus clouds, in the dynamics of large scale convectively coupled Kelvin waves, westward propagating 2-day waves, and the Madden–Julian oscillation. Recently, a systematic model convective parametrization highlighting the dynamic role of the three cloud types has been developed by the authors involving two baroclinic modes of vertical structure: a deep-convective heating mode and a second mode with low level heating and cooling corresponding, respectively, to congestus and stratiform clouds. The model includes a systematic moisture equation where the lower troposphere moisture increases through detrainment of shallow cumulus clouds, evaporation of stratiform rain, and moisture convergence and decreases through deep-convective precipitation and also a nonlinear switch which favors either deep or congestus convection depending on the relative dryness of the middle troposphere. The detailed nonlinear evolution of large scale convectively coupled waves in the model parametrization is studied here in a chaotic intermittent regime of the nonlinear dynamics associated with weaker mean radiative cooling where such waves are isolated in space and time. This regime is utilized to elucidate in a clean fashion several novel features of the model parametrization. In particular, four stages of nonlinear wave evolution occur: in the preconditioning and birth stages, the role of congestus moistening and second baroclinic convergence are crucial while in the dying stage of the large scale convectively coupled wave, the role of the nonlinear switch, and the drying of the troposphere are essential. In the mature phase, the large scale features of the convectively coupled waves resemble those in observations of convectively coupled Kelvin waves including the propagation speed, wave tilt, temperature, heating, and velocity structure.     

Model multi-cloud parameterizations for convectively coupled waves: Detailed nonlinear wave evolution

Recent observational analysis reveals the central role of three cloud types, congestus, stratiform, and deep-convective cumulus clouds, in the dynamics of large scale convectively coupled Kelvin waves, westward propagating 2-day waves, and the Madden–Julian oscillation. Recently, a systematic model convective parametrization highlighting the dynamic role of the three cloud types has been developed by the authors involving two baroclinic modes of vertical structure: a deep-convective heating mode and a second mode with low level heating and cooling corresponding, respectively, to congestus and stratiform clouds. The model includes a systematic moisture equation where the lower troposphere moisture increases through detrainment of shallow cumulus clouds, evaporation of stratiform rain, and moisture convergence and decreases through deep-convective precipitation and also a nonlinear switch which favors either deep or congestus convection depending on the relative dryness of the middle troposphere. The detailed nonlinear evolution of large scale convectively coupled waves in the model parametrization is studied here in a chaotic intermittent regime of the nonlinear dynamics associated with weaker mean radiative cooling where such waves are isolated in space and time. This regime is utilized to elucidate in a clean fashion several novel features of the model parametrization. In particular, four stages of nonlinear wave evolution occur: in the preconditioning and birth stages, the role of congestus moistening and second baroclinic convergence are crucial while in the dying stage of the large scale convectively coupled wave, the role of the nonlinear switch, and the drying of the troposphere are essential. In the mature phase, the large scale features of the convectively coupled waves resemble those in observations of convectively coupled Kelvin waves including the propagation speed, wave tilt, temperature, heating, and velocity structure.     

Circulation anomalies associated with tropical-temperate troughs in southern Africa and the south west Indian Ocean

Daily rainfall variability over southern Africa (SA) and the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) during the austral summer months has recently been described objectively for the first time, using newly derived satellite products. The principle mode of variability in all months is a dipole structure with bands of rainfall orientated northwest to southeast across the region. These represent the location of cloud bands associated with tropical temperate troughs (TTT). This study objectively identifies major TTT events during November to February, and on the basis of composites off NCEP reanalysis data describes the associated atmospheric structure. The two phases of the rainfall dipole are associated with markedly contrasting circulation patterns. There are also pronounced intra-seasonal variations. In early summer the position of the temperate trough and TTT cloud band alternates between the SWIO and southwest Atlantic. In late summer the major TTT axis lies preferentially over the SWIO, associated with an eastward displacement in the Indian Ocean high. In all months, positive events, in which the TTT cloud band lies primarily over the SWIO, are associated with large-scale moisture flux anomalies, in which convergent fluxes form a pronounced poleward flux along the cloud band. This suggests that TTT events are a major mechanism of poleward transfer of energy and momentum. Moisture transport occurs along three principle paths: (1) the northern or central Indian Ocean (where anomalous fluxes extend eastward to the Maritime Continent), (2) south equatorial Africa and the equatorial Atlantic, (3) from the south within a cyclonic flow around the tropical-temperate trough. The relative importance of (2) is greatest in late summer. Thus, synoptic scale TTT events over SA/SWIO often result from large-scale planetary circulation patterns. Hovmoeller plots show that TTT development coincides with enhanced tropical convection between 10°–30°E (itself exhibiting periodicity of around 5 days), and often with convergence of eastward and westward propagating convection around 40°E. Harmonic analysis of 200 hPa geopotential anomalies show that TTT features are forced by a specific zonally asymmetric wave pattern, with wave 5 dominant or significant in all months except February when quasi-stationary waves 1, 2 and 3 dominate. These findings illustrate the importance of tropical and extratropical dynamics in understanding TTT events. Finally, it is suggested that in November–Januar TTT rainfall over SA/SWIO may be in phase with similar rainfall dipole structures observed in the South Pacific and South Atlantic convergence zones. Received: 11 August 1998 / Accepted: 28 May 1999     

Upscale effects in simulations of tropical convection on an equatorial beta-plane

A cloud-resolving model is configured to span the full meridional extent of the tropical atmosphere and have sufficient zonal extent to permit the representation of tropical cloud super-clusters. This is made computationally feasible by the use of anisotropic horizontal grids where one horizontal coordinate direction has over an order of magnitude finer resolution than the other direction. Typically, the meridional direction is chosen to have the coarser resolution (40 km grid spacing) and the zonal direction has enough resolution to ‘permit’ crude convective squall line ascent (1 km grid spacing). The aim was to run in cloud-resolving model (CRM) mode yet still have sufficient meridional resolution and extent to capture the equatorial trapped waves and the Hadley circulation. The large-scale circulation is driven by imposed uniform tropospheric cooling in conjunction with a fixed sea surface temperature distribution. At quasi-equilibrium the flow is characterized by sub-tropical jetstreams, tropical squall line systems that form eastward-propagating super-clusters, tropical depressions and even hurricanes.Two scientific issues are briefly addressed by the simulations: what forces the Hadley circulation and the nature of stratospheric waves appearing in the simulation. It is found that the presence of a meridional sea surface temperature gradient is not sufficient on its own to force a realistic Hadley circulation even though convection communicates the underlying temperature gradient to the atmosphere. It is shown in a simulation that accounts for the observed time and zonal-mean momentum forcing effect of large-scale eddies (originating in middle latitudes) that the heaviest precipitation is concentrated near the equator in association with moisture flux convergence driven by the Trade winds.A spectral analysis of the stratospheric waves found on the equator using the dispersion relation for equatorially-trapped waves provides strong evidence for the existence of a domain-scale Kelvin wave together with eastward and westward propagating inertia-gravity waves. The eastward-propagating stratospheric waves appear to be part of a convectively coupled wave system travelling at about 15 ms⁻¹.     

Influence of convective adjustment time scale on the tropical transient activity

The influence of convective adjustment time scale (??) in simulating the tropical transient activity is examined using the NCAR-Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). In the default configuration of the model, the prescribed value of ??, a characteristic time scale with which convective available potential energy (CAPE) is removed at an exponential rate by convection, is assumed to be 1?h. However, some recent observational findings suggest that it is larger by around one order of magnitude, and subsequent modeling studies showed its impact on mean climate and suggest a value of 8?h. To see if alteration of this time scale could affect the transient features of climate, numerical experiments are conducted in aqua-planet and real-planet frameworks. The analysis includes the tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV), convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEW), diurnal and sub-diurnal variability of precipitation, and intensity and frequency of rainfall. Two sets of simulations are conducted: one with a time scale of 1?h (CTRL) and another with 8?h (EXPT). EXPT produces more reasonable ISV, with prominent, coherent, and organized eastward propagation. The active phases of the ISV constitute hierarchical substructures embedded within them, which are absent in CTRL. The Kelvin waves become slow, Madden?CJulian oscillation (MJO) become energetic, n?=?1 equatorial Rossby (ER) and n?=?0 eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) waves become prominent, with the increase of ??. On the contrary, the mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves at higher wavenumber regimes become weak. The amplitude of diurnal variability decreases, but the phase remains largely unchanged. At sub-diurnal scales, the variability of precipitation increases. In CTRL, precipitation always occurs in the tropics with light or moderate intensity, which becomes intermittent when ?? is increased to 8?h.     

On the low-frequency,planetary-scale motion in the tropical atmosphere and oceans

Scale analyses for long wave, zonal ultralong wave (with zonal scale of disturbance L1~104 km and meridional scale L2~103 km) and meridional ultralong wave (L1~103 km, L2~104 km) are carried out and a set of approximate equations suitable for the study of these waves in a dry tropical atmosphere is obtained. Under the condition of sheared basic current, frequency analyses for the equations are carried out. It is found that Rossby waves and gravity waves may be separated for n ≥ l where n is the meridional wave number, whereas for n = 0 and L1~1000 km, the mixed Rossby-gravity wave will appear. Hence it is confirmed that the above results of scale analyses are correct. The consistency be-tween frequency analysis and scale analysis is established.The effect of shear of basic current on the equatorial waves is to change their frequencies and phase velocities and hence their group velocities. It increases the velocity of westward travelling Rossby waves and inertia-gravity and mixed waves, but decelerates the eastward inertia-gravity waves and the Kelvin wave. The recently observed low-frequency equatorial ocean wave may be interpreted as an eastward Kelvin wave in a basic current with shear.     

Impacts of upscale heat and momentum transfer by moist Kelvin waves on the Madden–Julian oscillation: a theoretical model study

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is observed to interact with moist Kelvin waves. To understand the role of this interaction, a simple scale-interaction model is built, which describes the MJO modulation of moist Kelvin waves and the feedback from moist Kelvin waves through upscale eddy heat and momentum transfer. The backward-tilted moist Kelvin waves produce eddy momentum transfer (EMT) characterized by the lower-tropospheric westerly winds and eddy heat transfer (EHT) that warms the mid-troposphere. The EHT tends to induce the lower-tropospheric easterly winds and low pressure, which is located in front of the “westerly wind burst” induced by the EMT. Adding the eddy forcing to a neutral MJO skeleton model, we show that the EHT provides an instability source for the MJO by warming up the mid-troposphere, and the EMT offers an additional instability source by enhancing the lower-tropospheric westerly winds. The eddy forcing selects eastward propagation for the unstable mode, because it generates positive/negative eddy available potential energy for the eastward/westward modes by changing their thermal and dynamical structures. The present results show that moist Kelvin waves can provide a positive feedback to the MJO only when they are located within (or near) the convective complex (center) of the MJO. The EHT and EMT feedback works positively in the front and rear part of the MJO, respectively. These theoretical results suggest the potential importance of moist Kelvin waves in sustaining the MJO and encourage further observations to document the relationship between moist Kelvin waves and the MJO.     

An Assessment of MJO and Tropical Waves Simulated by Different Versions of the GAMIL Model

Simulated outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) outputs by two versions of the grid-point atmospheric general circulation model (GAMIL) were analyzed to assess the influences of improvements in cloud microphysics and convective parameterization schemes on the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and other tropical waves. The wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis was applied to isolate dominant modes of convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and inertio-gravity (IG) waves. The performances of different versions of the GAMIL model (version 1.0 (GAMIL1.0) and version 2.0 (GAMIL2.0)) were evaluated by comparing the power spectrum distributions of these waves among GAMIL1.0, GAMIL2.0, and observational data. GAMIL1.0 shows a weak MJO signal, with the maximum variability occurring separately at wavenumbers 1 and 4 rather than being concentrated on wavenumbers 1–3, suggesting that GAMIL1.0 could not effectively capture the intraseasonal variability. However, GAMIL2.0 is able to effectively reproduce both the symmetric and anti-symmetric waves, and the significant spectra of the MJO, Kelvin, and MRG waves are in agreement with observational data, indicating that the ability of GAMIL2.0 to simulate the MJO and other tropical waves is enhanced by improving the cloud microphysics and convective parameterization schemes and implying that such improvements are crucial to further improving this model’s performance.     

超强厄尔尼诺事件海洋学特征分析与预测回顾

2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件被认为是一次与1982/1983和1997/1998年相当的超强事件。基于多套再分析数据,比较了此次事件的海洋上层变量主要特征与历史上两次超强事件的异同,并利用热带太平洋混合层热收支方程对主要物理过程进行了定量分析。研究认为,2015/2016年事件前期为异常高海温东传特征,且前期形成了一次弱的中太平洋型暖事件;但后期表现为弱西传特征,在成熟位相转换成东太平洋型强厄尔尼诺。此次事件中伴随着多次西风爆发事件和开尔文波东传,但赤道开尔文波在盛期基本维持在中东太平洋而不继续东传,赤道外罗斯贝波西传特征亦不明显。相比之下,此次事件在发展-成熟期前后的赤道“热容量放电”过程更加明显些。此次事件异常暖中心位置偏西,其主要原因很可能与赤道东太平洋的强东风异常和冷海水上翻,以及纬向洋流异常和次表层温度异常分布偏西有关;东边界冷水入侵,削弱赤道东太平洋海温异常程度,可能是此次事件位置偏西的直接原因。在海洋上层热量收支中,此次事件中温跃层反馈是促进海温升高和位相转换的最关键过程,纬向平流反馈项亦发挥了重要作用,两种过程共同形成了超强的升温幅度和偏西的异常暖海温分布型。中国国家气候中心新一代ENSO预测系统（SEMAP2.0）每年两次的实际会商预测中给出了较为合理的预测,特别是考虑前期海洋变化预报因子信息的统计模型更好地预测出了海温异常的波动演变状况,成为多方法集合（MME）的重要成员。      

Modulation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave Activity in the Tropical Pacific by ENSO

The influence of El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Pacific is investigated by comparing the Kelvin wave activity in the eastern Pacific (EP) El Nio, central Pacific (CP) El Nio, and La Nia years, respectively, to 30-yr (1982-2011) mean statistics. The convectively coupled Kelvin waves in this study are represented by the two leading modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of 2-25-day band-pass filtered daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), with the estimated zonal wavenumber of 3 or 4, period of 8 days, and eastward propagating speed of 17 ms-1 . The most significant impact of ENSO on the Kelvin wave activity is the intensification of the Kelvin waves during the EP El Nios. The impact of La Nia on the reduction of the Kelvin wave intensity is relatively weaker, reflecting the nonlinearity of tropical deep convection and the associated Kelvin waves in response to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The impact of the CP El Nio on the Kelvin waves is less significant due to relatively weaker SST anomalies and smaller spatial coverage. ENSO may also alter the frequency, wavelength, and phase speed of the Kelvin waves. This study demonstrates that low-frequency ENSO SST anomalies modulate high-frequency tropical disturbances, an example of weather-climate linkage.