Volcanic tremor at Mt. Etna: Inferences on magma dynamics during effusive and explosive activity

During 1999, the volcanic activity at Mt. Etna was both explosive and effusive at the summit craters: Strombolian activity, lava fountains and lava flows affected different areas of the volcano, involving three of the four summit craters. Results from analysis of the 1999 volcanic tremor features are shown at two different time scales. First, the long-term time variation of the features of the volcanic tremor (including spectral and polarization parameters), during the entire year, was compared with the evolution of the eruptive activity. This approach demonstrated the good agreement between tremor data and observed eruptive activity; the activation of different tremor sources was suggested. Then, a more refined analysis of the volcanic tremor, recorded during 14 lava fountain eruptions, was performed. In particular, a shift of the dominant frequencies towards lower values was noted which corresponds with increasing explosive activity. Similar behaviour in the frequency content has already been observed in other explosive eruptions at Mt. Etna as well as on other volcanoes. This behaviour has been explained in terms of either an increase in the tremor source dimension or a decrease in the sound speed in the magma within the conduit. These results confirm that the volcanic tremor is a powerful tool for better understanding the physical processes controlling explosive eruptions at Mt. Etna volcano.     

Volcanisme et séismicité dans l’Archipel des Nouvelles-Hébrides

A violent outburst of the Lopevi volcano in the central New Hebrides occurred on the 10th July, 1960. The eruption was preceded 4 months before by a deep earthquake (h=250 kms, Mag. 7 1/4), the focus of which was just under the volcano. An inventory of all shocks recorded in the Group since 1910 has been made and all informations about volcanic eruptions in this region have been collected. A close correlation appeared between these two phenomena. Each of the large volcanic eruptions recorded between 1910 and 1962 followed a deep focus earthquake of magnitude greater than 7. Moderate eruptions were preceded by earthquakes of magnitude between 5 3/4 and 6 3/4. The time between the tectonic shock and the climactic phase of the volcanic activity appears to be related to the distance between the focus and the volcano (i.e. the focal depth), the type of the volcano and the pattern of its eruption. It is of few months duration for the volcanoes in the Central group: Ambrym, Lopévi, the submarine volcano east of Epi and Karua. The authors tried to find the same correlations for others volcanoes in the world for which they have been able to collect dates of eruptions: Asama-Yama (Japan), Bezymiannyi (Kamtchatka), Paricutin and Izalco (Central America), Vesuve, Stromboli (Italy). Thus volcanic eruptions would appear to have their first origin in the mantle. A systematic survey of all volcanoes and deep regional earthquakes would bring evidence of this correlation and may permit a long term prediction of their eruptions.     

Eruption-induced modifications to volcanic seismicity at Ruapehu,New Zealand,and its implications for eruption forecasting

Broadband seismic data collected on Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, in 1994 and 1998 show that the 1995-1996 eruptions of Ruapehu resulted in a significant change in the frequency content of tremor and volcanic earthquakes at the volcano. The pre-eruption volcanic seismicity was characterized by several independent dominant frequencies, with a 2 Hz spectral peak dominating the strongest tremor and volcanic earthquakes and higher frequencies forming the background signal. The post-eruption volcanic seismicity was dominated by a 0.8-1.4 Hz spectral peak not seen before the eruptions. The 2 Hz and higher frequency signals remained, but were subordinate to the 0.8-1.4 Hz energy. That the dominant frequencies of volcanic tremor and volcanic earthquakes were identical during the individual time periods prior to and following the 1995-1996 eruptions suggests that during each of these time periods the volcanic tremor and earthquakes were generated by the same source process. The overall change in the frequency content, which occurred during the 1995-1996 eruptions and remains as of the time of the writing of this paper, most likely resulted from changes in the volcanic plumbing system and has significant implications for forecasting and real-time assessment of future eruptive activity at Ruapehu.     

Earthquakes at depth beneath volcanoes,forerunners of their activities. Application to White Island,New Zealand

The concept of a time-depth correlation between tectonic earthquakes at depth beneath some volcanoes, and their eruptions, developed by the author since 1962, has been confirmed by new observations and successful prediction of renewed volcanic activity in New Zealand.Regular earthquake migrations are observed along the Benioff zone, and volcanic eruptions are found to be related to these seismic migrations beneath the volcanoes, as follows:

Therefore, in island arcs and continental margins, volcanic activity is the result of two processes occurring beneath the volcanoes: (1) a “tectonic process”, a migration of strain release along the downgoing lithosphere, of which the earthquakes are the manifestation; (2) a “magmatic process”, a relatively fast vertical ascent of magmatic material from the deep root of the volcano, where the observed shocks may be the starting signal from this level.The rate of migration of tectonic earthquakes increases with depth in the upper mantle.An empirical time relationship between the earthquakes occurring at depth beneath a volcano and its eruptions, has been successfully tested for renewed activity at White Island in New Zealand, over the period 1977–1978.     

Deep root of andesitic volcanoes: New evidence of magma generation at depth in the Benioff zone

The concept of a time-depth correlation between tectonic earthquakes at depth beneath some volcanoes, and their eruptions, developed by the author since 1962, has been confirmed by new observations and successful prediction of renewed volcanic activity in New Zealand.Regular earthquake migrations are observed along the Benioff zone, and volcanic eruptions are found to be related to these seismic migrations beneath the volcanoes, as follows:

Full-size image (2K)

Therefore, in island arcs and continental margins, volcanic activity is the result of two processes occurring beneath the volcanoes: (1) a “tectonic process”, a migration of strain release along the downgoing lithosphere, of which the earthquakes are the manifestation; (2) a “magmatic process”, a relatively fast vertical ascent of magmatic material from the deep root of the volcano, where the observed shocks may be the starting signal from this level.The rate of migration of tectonic earthquakes increases with depth in the upper mantle.An empirical time relationship between the earthquakes occurring at depth beneath a volcano and its eruptions, has been successfully tested for renewed activity at White Island in New Zealand, over the period 1977–1978.     

2017年全球活动火山时空分布以及阿贡火山喷发前后的形变特征

归纳总结2017年度全球81座活火山的活动情况,共计活动1058座次,平均每周记录20座活火山的活动信息。根据火山潜在喷发的危险性和火山活动的强弱程度对上述火山进行分级描述,火山活动主要反映了地球表层的构造活动,其中大角度俯冲带的弧后火山最为强烈,小角度的俯冲带、拉张裂谷和走滑为主的板块边界火山活动较为平静,火山活动频繁的印度尼西亚岛链是受灾最为严重的区域。预计全球火山活动将进一步加剧,印尼岛链受火山灾害威胁的程度依然较大。位于印尼岛链巴厘岛上的阿贡火山自2017年9月开始活动以来,整个喷发过程极具代表性,监测阿贡火山喷发过程可为全球典型火山喷发事件研究提供参考。     

Summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoi Volcano,Kamchatka in the early 21st century, 2003–2013

This paper is concerned with eruptions, seismicity, and deformation on Klyuchevskoi Volcano during the summit eruptions of 2012–2013, with the condition of the central crater during the eruptions, and with the effect that is exerted by the height of the lava in the crater on the start of the eruptions. The recurrence of eruptions in the North Volcanic Cluster (NVC), Kamchatka showed that all the four volcanoes in the cluster (Klyuchevskoi, Tolbachik, Shiveluch, and Bezymyannyi) become active during definite phases that were identified in the 18.6-year lunar cycle. This relationship of the NVC eruptions to the active phases in the 18.6-year lunar cycle, as well as the relationship to the 11-year solar activity, showed that eruptions can be predicted, yielding long-term estimates of activity for the NVC volcanoes. The short-term prediction of volcanic eruptions requires knowledge of seismicity and deformation that occur during the precursory period and during the occurrence of eruptions. Seismic activity during the summit eruptions of 2003–2013 took place in the depth range 20–25 km during repose periods of the volcano and at depths of 0–5 km in the volcanic edifice during the eruption. One notes an almost complete absence of any earthquakes at great depths during the summit eruptions. Volcanic tremor (VT) was recorded from the time that the eruptions began and continued to occur until the end. Geodetic measurements showed that the center of the magma pressure beneath the volcano during the parasitic and summit eruptions of 1979–1989 moved in the 4–17 km depth range, while during the summit eruptions of 2003–2013 the center moved in the 15–20 km range. These changes in the depth of the center of magma pressure may have been related to evacuation from shallow magma chambers.     

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.     

Patterns in open vent, strombolian behavior at Fuego volcano, Guatemala, 2005–2007

Fuego volcano, Guatemala is a high (3,800 m) composite volcano that erupts gas-rich, high-Al basalt, often explosively. It spends many years in an essentially open vent condition, but this activity has not been extensively observed or recorded until now. The volcano towers above a region with several tens of thousands of people, so that patterns in its activity might have hazard mitigation applications. We conducted 2 years of continuous observations at Fuego (2005–2007) during which time the activity consisted of minor explosions, persistent degassing, paroxysmal eruptions, and lava flows. Radiant heat output from MODIS correlates well with observed changes in eruptive behavior, particularly during abrupt changes from passive lava effusion to paroxysmal eruptions. A short-period seismometer and two low-frequency microphones installed during the final 6 months of the study period recorded persistent volcanic tremor (1–3 Hz) and a variety of explosive eruptions. The remarkable correlation between seismic tremor, thermal output, and daily observational data defines a pattern of repeating eruptive behavior: 1) passive lava effusion and subordinate strombolian explosions, followed by 2) paroxysmal eruptions that produced sustained eruptive columns, long, rapidly emplaced lava flows, and block and ash flows, and finally 3) periods of discrete degassing explosions with no lava effusion. This study demonstrates the utility of low-cost observations and ground-based and satellite-based remote sensing for identifying changes in volcanic activity in remote regions of underdeveloped countries.     

Long-term observation of volcanic tremor on Stromboli volcano (Italy): A synopsis

The features of seismic activity on Stromboli are discussed and compared in terms of their relationship with the main changes of volcanic activity from 1990 to 1993.We considered a statistical approach for our data analysis. Cluster analysis was used to seek out classes of spectra which might characterize the condition of the volcanic system. The classes we have found provide insights into a scenario which evolves through different phases of volcanic activity, from paroxysms to low activity. We show that episodes of lava effusion and lava fountaining are heralded by variations in the spectral features of tremor after a preparation time. This result highlights the importance of tremor, and reveals that long-term observations are key to examine slow modifications in a volcanic system such as Stromboli, characterized by open conduits, and persistent explosive activity.     

Volcanic tremor at Pavlof Volcano,Alaska, October 1973–April 1986

In thirteen years (1973–1986) of seismic monitoring of Pavlof Volcano, 488 episodes of volcanic tremor have been recorded, only 26 of which have been previously described in the literature. This paper tabulates and describes all the tremor episodes and reports on the results of all analyses to date. Pavlof tremor durations range from 2 minutes to greater than 1 week; episodes accompanying magmatic eruptions have durations greater than 1 hour, and sustained amplitudes of greater than 6 mmP-P (=54 nanometers at 1.5 Hz) on station PVV, 8.5 km from the vent. Digital data provide much better amplitude resolution than helicorders do. Helicorders, however, provide continuous coverage, whereas digital data are intermittent. Correlations of tremor with visual eruption observations shows that tremor amplitudes are roughly correlated with heights of lava fountains, but the correlation of tremor amplitudes with plume heights is more problematic. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) spectra show that Pavlof tremor is quite statinary for the entire time period, 1973–1983. All principal spectral peaks lie between 0.8 and 3.0 Hz, and may be caused by resonance of magma and gas, and resonance of the volcanic pile. Preliminary analysis of 2-and 3-component data shows thatP, S, PL, and Rayleigh waves may be present in Pavlof volcanic tremor. Other waveforms can be misidentified as tremor, most commonly those caused by storms orS-waves of regional earthquakes. A strategy is proposed to distinguish tremor from noise using automatic seismic data acquisition and analysis systems. Pavlof's volcanic tremor is briefly compared with a preliminary sample of over 1100 cases of tremor from 84 volcanoes worldwide. Finally, several recommendations for monitoring and reporting volcanic tremor are discussed.     

Random patterns of occurrence of explosive eruptions at Colima Volcano, Mexico

Analysis of the patterns of eruption occurrences may improve our understanding of volcanic processes. In this paper, the available historical data of an individual volcano, Colima in México, are used to classify its eruptions by size using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). The data shows that, if eruptions are only taken into account above a certain VEI level, the stochastic process associated with the explosive volcanic events can be represented by a non-stationary Poisson point process, which can be reduced to a homogeneous Poisson process through a transformation of the time axis. When eruptions are separated by VEI values, the occurrence patterns of each magnitude category can also be represented by a Poisson distribution. Analysis of the rate of occurrence of all eruptions with VEI greater than 1 permits the recognition of three distinct regimes or rates of volcanic activity during the last 430 years. A double stochastic Poisson model is suggested to describe this non-stationary eruptive pattern of Colima volcano and a Bayesian approach permits an estimation the present hazard.     

Cladistic analysis applied to the classification of volcanoes

Cladistics is a systematic method of classification that groups entities on the basis of sharing similar characteristics in the most parsimonious manner. Here cladistics is applied to the classification of volcanoes using a dataset of 59 Quaternary volcanoes and 129 volcanic edifices of the Tohoku region, Northeast Japan. Volcano and edifice characteristics recorded in the database include attributes of volcano size, chemical composition, dominant eruptive products, volcano morphology, dominant landforms, volcano age and eruptive history. Without characteristics related to time the volcanic edifices divide into two groups, with characters related to volcano size, dominant composition and edifice morphology being the most diagnostic. Analysis including time based characteristics yields four groups with a good correlation between these groups and the two groups from the analysis without time for 108 out of 129 volcanic edifices. Thus when characters are slightly changed the volcanoes still form similar groupings. Analysis of the volcanoes both with and without time yields three groups based on compositional, eruptive products and morphological characters. Spatial clusters of volcanic centres have been recognised in the Tohoku region by Tamura et al. (Earth Planet Sci Lett 197:105–106, 2002). The groups identified by cladistic analysis are distributed unevenly between the clusters, indicating a tendency for individual clusters to form similar kinds of volcanoes with distinctive but coherent styles of volcanism. Uneven distribution of volcano types between clusters can be explained by variations in dominant magma compositions through time, which are reflected in eruption products and volcanic landforms. Cladistic analysis can be a useful tool for elucidating dynamic igneous processes that could be applied to other regions and globally. Our exploratory study indicates that cladistics has promise as a method for classifying volcanoes and potentially elucidating dynamic and evolutionary volcanic processes. Cladistics may also have utility in hazards assessment where spatial distributions and robust definitions of a volcano are important, as in locating sensitive facilities such as nuclear reactors and repositories.     

On the spectral peaks of volcanic tremor at Stromboli

Seismic activity at Stromboli Volcano is characterized by a variety of signals, emanating from three vents. For a long time, the northwest vent has been in constant activity. Periodically, large explosions occur and material is ejected beyond the crater walls. These large explosions are accompanied by sonic and infrasonic pressure waves in the atmosphere, and explosion quakes. Apart from large explosions, there is constant activity in the form of continuous gas bursts which are related to low infrasonic pulses in the atmosphere and volcanic tremor. We assume that volcanic tremor and low pressure infrasonics are generated by gas bubbles inside the volcanic conduit, and accordingly, we compute synthetic tremor by modeling the source function as a pressure variation in a spherical cavity that propagates through a finely layered medium, by means of Haskell's formalism. To simulate a tremor, we superpose in time domain a large number of such pulses of varying amplitudes and time delays, according to the observed infrasonic series. In addition to the spectral similarity, the observed and synthetic tremor display the same autocorrelation and Hurst exponents, implying similar long-term correlation. We present strong evidence in favour of an interpretation of the spectral peaks of the volcanic tremor at Stromboli in terms of resonances of the layered structure, hence, as a path effect rather than a source effect.     

Microtremors and volcanic explosions at Stromboli — Part 2

A seismic survey was carried out at Stromboli volcano during August 1973. Statistical and spectral analyses of volcanic tremor and explosion quakes were performed. The statistical analysis has shown that the value of them coefficient in Ishimoto & Iida’s relation is high and that the hourly frequencies of events are fairly constant. The spectral analysis has shown a similarity in shape between tremors and explosion quakes. These events have the dominant frequency of 5 Hz at the craters area.     

A summary of sulfur dioxide emission rate measuremnts from Guatemalan volcanoes

Measurements of the sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission rate from three Guatemalan volcanoes provide data which are consistent with theoretical and laboratory studies of eruptive and shallow magma chamber processes. In particular, unerupted magma makes a major contribution to the measured SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito, a continuously erupting dacitic volcanic dome. Varying shallow magma convection rates can explain the variations in SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito. At Fuego, a basaltic volcano currently in repose, SO₂ emission rate measurements are consistent with a high level magma body that is crystallizing and releasing volatiles. At Pacaya, a continuously erupting basaltic volcano, recent SO₂ emission rate measurements support laboratory simulation studies of strombolian eruptions; these studies indicate that the majority of gas escapes during eruptions and little gas escapes between eruptions.Average SO₂ emission rates over the last 20 years for Santiaguito, Fuego and Pacaya are 80, 160 and 260 Mg/d, respectively. On a global scale, these three volcanoes account for 1% of the annual global volcanic output of SO₂. Santiaguito and Pacaya, together, emit 6% of the total annual SO₂ emitted by continuously erupting volcanoes.Even though SO₂ measurements at these volcanoes have been made infrequently and by different investigators, the collective data help to establish a useful baseline by which to judge future changes. A more complete record of SO₂ emission rates from these volcanoes could lead to a better understanding of their eruption mechanisms and reduce the impact of their future eruptions on Guatemalan society.     

The development of the system of integrated instrumental monitoring of volcanoes in the Far East Region

This work presents the project of the first stage of implementation of the integrated instrumental system of volcanic activity monitoring in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. The system of monitoring was designed for the purpose of ensuring public safety, aviation safety, and reducing economic losses caused by volcanic eruptions. The most active and dangerous volcanoes in Kamchatka (North and Avacha groups of volcanoes) and the Kuril Islands (volcanoes on the islands of Kunashir and Paramushir) are of first priority for monitoring. For this purpose, special observation points are planned to be installed on the volcanoes. The system of monitoring will include a complex of observations (broadband seismic station with a large dynamic range, tiltmeter, devices for gas, acoustic, and electromagnetic observations, and video camera). All the data will be passed to information processing centers in real time. New methods and algorithms of automatic and automated identification of the volcanic activity level and the probabilistic volcano hazard assessment have been developed.     

Cross-correlation analysis of seismic and volcanic data at Mt Etna volcano,Italy

Seismic data from the MVT-SLN sesmic station located 7 km from the summit area of Mt Etna volcano, which has been operating steadily for the last two decades, have been analysed together with the volcanic activity during the same period. Cross-correlation techniques are used to investigate possible relationships between seismic and volcanic data and to evaluate the statistical significance of the results. A number of significant correlations have been identified, showing that there is an evident relation between seismic events and flank eruptions, and a less clear relation with summit activity, which appears more linked to tremor rather than to the low-frequency events. Particularly interesting are the low-frequency events whose rate of occurrence increases, starting from 17 to 108 days, prior to the onset of the flank activity and are candidates for a useful precursor. On the other hand, a tendency towards the increase in both the duration and the occurrence rate of transients in the volcanic tremor was observed before the onset of summit eruptions. As a result of this study different stages in the volcanic activity of Mt Etna, represented by changes in the characteristics of the recorded seismic phenomena, are identified.     

Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions

We show how a stochastic version of a general load-and-discharge model for volcanic eruptions can be implemented. The model tracks the history of the volcano through a quantity proportional to stored magma volume. Thus large eruptions can influence the activity rate for a considerable time following, rather than only the next repose as in the time-predictable model. The model can be fitted to data using point-process methods. Applied to flank eruptions of Mount Etna, it exhibits possible long-term quasi-cyclic behavior, and to Mauna Loa, a long-term decrease in activity. An extension to multiple interacting sources is outlined, which may be different eruption styles or locations, or different volcanoes. This can be used to identify an ‘average interaction’ between the sources. We find significant evidence that summit eruptions of Mount Etna are dependent on preceding flank eruptions, with both flank and summit eruptions being triggered by the other type. Fitted to Mauna Loa and Kilauea, the model had a marginally significant relationship between eruptions of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, consistent with the invasion of the latter's plumbing system by magma from the former.     

Intermediate depth earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in Central America, 1961–1972

Eight Central American volcanoes had large eruptions during the period 1961 to 1972. The distribution of intermediate depth earthquakes which occurred during the same period is marked by eight concentrations. Seven of the eight very active volcanoes are spatially related to the concentrations of intermediate depth earthquakes. The centers of the concentrations are typically a few tens of kilometers seaward of the volcanoes. The earthquakes have focal depths of about 70 to 110 km. Directly below the active volcanoes there is little or no intermediate depth seismic activity. Partially melted areas along the deep seismic zone directly below the active volcanoes might explain this distribution. Spatial-temporal progressions relating specific intermediate depth earth-quakes to specific volcanic eruptions have not been recognized. The development of a concentration of intermediate depth earthquakes spatially related to a quiescent volcano may indicate that the volcano will soon enter a period of renewed activity.