Space-time distribution of small earthquakes at Phlegraean Fields,south-central Italy

A preliminary statistical analysis of the space-time distribution of small seismic events in the volcanic area of Phlegraean Fields, south-central Italy, was done on the basis of a catalogue of earthquakes recorded by the local seismic stations in the period January 1, December 31, 1983.The non-random character of the sequence has been tested by matching the observed time-dstribution of seismic events with the theoretical Poisson process.A clustered occurrence of seismic events seems to be the main cause of the departure from a Poisson process as the inter-arrival times distribution clearly shows.Furthermore, the non-random behaviour of the events space-time distribution mainly due to quiescient and clustered recursive seismic phases could be studied by using the method proposed byVon Seggern et al. (1981). The analysis and the space-time diagrams confirm the swarm-type character of the entire seismic sequence.     

Modeling hydrothermal fluid circulation and gravity signals at the Phlegraean Fields caldera

The Phlegraean Fields caldera is an active volcanic system where episodes of ground deformation are accompanied by significant changes in geochemical and geophysical parameters monitored at the surface. These changes derive from a complex interaction between magmatic system and hydrothermal fluid circulation. We calculate the gravity changes associated with the variable density of hydrothermal fluids. We simulate the multi-phase and multi-component fluid circulation triggered by a pulsating magma degassing, periodically increasing the discharge of CO₂-enriched fluids into the shallow hydrothermal system. The simulated evolution of the hydrothermal system successfully reproduces the observed composition of gas discharged at the surface. At the same time, results indicate that changes in average fluid density generate a detectable gravity signal that is of the same order of magnitude of the observed changes. This contribution to gravity changes can explain the peculiar behavior of gravity data collected at Solfatara, where surface hydrothermal phenomena are present. Simultaneous fitting of two independent sets of monitoring data (gas composition and gravity changes) confirms the conceptual model proposed for the hydrothermal system at Solfatara, and it provides new insights for the interpretation of gravity data.     

Magnetotelluric survey in the bradyseismic area of Phlegraean Fields

A magnetotelluric survey was carried out in order to contribute to the definition of the deep structure of the Phlegraean Fields area affected by the bradyseismic crisis begun in the summer 1982. In a preliminary campaign carried out in autumn 1983, the MT measurements were made in eight sites, located between 0.3 and 5 km from the Harbour of Pozzuoli and affected by different degrees of uplift.In a second campaign (autumn, 1984) seven of the first eight MT soundings were repeated and four new sites were investigated, one of which located in a stable zone 10 km away from Pozzuoli.MT measurements show the presence of a thick conductive layer (<1 m) thinned underneath the town of Pozzuoli, where its top reaches the minimum depth (1.2–2 km). The upper horizon of this layer has a greater concavity than that produced by surface deformation. Below the conductive layer, the substratum became progressively more resistive with depth. This resistive basement is well defined in the soundings located far away from Pozzuoli. Here, on the contrary, a zone or body much more conductive than its surroundings is detected. This conductive body could correspond to a high temperature magmatic intrusion, probably already solidified, with a rough cylindrical shape with a base diameter of 1.5±0.5 km.Introducing into the obtained model the depth of the conductive horizon desumed from the deep geothermal wells, the top of the intrusive body would lye at 3–4 km depth.A small uplift of this body related to tectonic readjustments eventually induced by strong earthquakes recently occurred in near zones could explain the surface deformation observed during the present bradyseismic crisis.     

A preliminary study of stress pattern at Phlegraean Fields as inferred from focal mechanisms

Thirty-seven selected earthquakes which occurred in Phlegraean Fields from April to December 1983 are investigated from the focal mechanism point of view in order to attempt a preliminary representation of the stress pattern in the area. From 37 earthquakes, 15 reliable solutions were obtained. Ten mechanisms for events located around the Solfatara crater are of tensional type; 2 located in the Gulf of Pozzuoli seem to be compressive. No predominant orientation ofP andT axes seem to occur. Evidently, a more accurate analysis with a greater number of data — in particular for compressive events — is necessary in order to resolve a detailed map of stress pattern.     

Composition of hydrothermal fluids during the bradyseismic crisis which commenced at Phlegraean Fields in 1982

A systematic geochemical surveillance on the fumaroles of Solfatara and the boiling pools of Pisciarelli was carried out by discontinuous monitoring of the chemical composition of the emitted fluids during the Phlegraean Fields bradyseismic crisis which has begun in 1982. The fluids are considered to be produced by the ebullition of shallow aquifers receiving a convective gaseous inflow from the underlying magma chamber.Increased water vapor concentrations at a constant temperature of about 155 °C throughout the investigated period, along with the occurrence of ground deformations and seismic phenomena, are interpreted as resulting from an increased heat supply to the boiling water bodies.Dissolution processes and reactions with the confining rocks can alter the chemical composition of fluids escaping from magma to a large extent. Therefore it does not appear correct to consider the absolute values of any chemical constituent for geochemical surveillance without taking this modifying factor into account. Acid gases will be preferably absorbed by the above mentioned aquifers, while other species like H₂, N₂, O₂, CH₄, will instead increase their relative concentrations. Because of this, water vapour concentrations and the ratios H₂S/CO₂ and H₂/CH₄ in surface thermal manifestations appear to reflect better the varying extent of the observed phenomenon.On the basis of these parameters, and of both the upheaval rate and the intensity of seismic events, maximum values in the convective input of magmatic origin are estimated to have occurred at the beginning of the crisis and in September–October 1983.As long as water bodies at shallow depth are able to buffer the convective flow both thermally and chemically, no important volcanic activity can develop. When the absorbing capacity of these aquifers is exhausted, the increasing temperature and the changing characteristics of fluids towards a magmatic composition will indicate a higher probability of eruptive phenomena.CNR —Centro di studio per la mineralogia e la geochimica dei sedimenti.     

A fluid-filled fracture as possible mechanism of ground deformation at Phlegraean Fields,Italy

Two uplift episodes have recently been recorded at Phlegraean Fields, a volcanic region near Naples (south-central Italy). The first episode occurred in 1970 and lasted up to 1972; the second has begun at the end of 1982 and is still in progress.An attempt to model the ground deformations which occurred during the 1970–1972 event is made in this paper. The source has been assumed to be a two-dimensional fluid-filled fracture, similar to a sill. A good fit with experimental data has been obtained for a short (1–2 km long) shallow (3 km deep) source and a driving pressure ranging from 60 to 210 bars. Rigidity values have been fixed at 3.5–4.0 × 10¹⁰ c.g.s., with Poisson ratio equal to 0.3.This solution which differs from previous approaches byMogi (1958) andWalsh andDecker (1971) is non-unique, but the present results are in good agreement with observed horizontal and vertical displacements. Notwithstanding the oversimplification made in assuming a homogeneous elastic semi-infinite medium, the predicted stress field seems to be in agreement with the fault-plane solutions and the pattern of epicenters determined for the uplift-seismic swarm episode that is still in progress.     

Seismic coda Q and turbidity coefficient at the Phlegraean Fields volcanic area: Preliminary results

Digital recordings of microearthquake codas from shallow seismic events in the Phlegraean Fields region (south-central Italy) were used to calculate the attenuation factor Q_c.A quite unusual frequency dependence was found for the coda attenuation comparable to Hawaii pattern of Q_c. This is interpreted as due to the presence of magma that increases the amount of anelasticity. Amount of scattering at Phlegraean Fields was estimated through the « turbidity » coefficient (Dainty model), that shows a high degree of scattering due to inhomogeneities as compared to Hawaii. Probably this is due to the greater crustal thickness of Phlegraean Fields with respect to Hawaii that produces more scattering.     

Fracture system in Phlegraean Fields (Naples,southern Italy)

During the 1983 seismic crisis in the Phlegraean Fields bradyseismic region (southern Italy), a structural analysis of the area was carried out.With a detailed field survey based on a net of 34 measure stations, a total of 536 fractures (mainly joints and a few normal faults) were measured on a 10 × 10 km area in volcanites capable of memorizing post depositional stress activity by fracturing.The analysis of the collected data was performed with the data bank of the University of Rome computer facilities. The azimuthal analysis of total fractures showed a nonrandom distribution with 5 major sets: N13°E, N45°E, N14°W, N55°W and E-W. These preferential orientations have been detected with an automatic fitting of gaussian curves (bell curves) on the azimuthal histograms. The areal distribution showed that all these fracture sets are in general present in the main collapse area. An azimuthal analysis performed by selecting the data collected for rocks older than 4,600 y BP showed a possible youngest age for the N14°W set (domain) (E-W extension). Fractures with an «opening» wider than 1 cm presented the same 5 azimuthal sets and fit fairly well with a concentric distribution around the main collapse area. The presence of an analogous radial pattern is not evident. A tentative interpretation model relates the superficial fracture sets to two possible causes: volcanic activity, including doming and collapsing, and propagation of active tensile deformations in the sedimentary basement due to regional stress trajectories.Contribution of «Centro di Studio per la Geologia dell'Italia Centrale», CNR, Roma.     

A model of the Phlegraean Fields magma chamber in the last 10,500 years

Volcanological and petrological data suggest that the Phlegraean Fields volcanic activity has been fed, at least in the last 10,500 years, by a not-refilled magma chamber where trachytic residual liquids were produced by fractionation of a trachybasaltic magma. Using estimated volumes of the erupted products andP–T data obtained through petrological studies, a conductive thermal model of the chamber was built up in order to estimate its past and present size. Results suggest a volume decrease from approximately 14 to 1.4 km³ of the trachybasaltic magma in 10,500 years. Trachytic liquid would also be present in the chamber in a minimum amount of 0.4 km³. The model allowed some insights on the petrogenesis of the Phlegraean trachytes, suggesting that they were erupted as liquids because thermally buffered within the magma chamber.     

Modelling of surface ground deformations in the Phlegraean Fields volcanic area,Italy

A preliminary finite elements model of the ground deformations observed at Phlegraean Fields is proposed. The model assumes an oblate-spheroid magma chamber at the depth of 5.4 km with major semiaxis of 1.5 km and minor semiaxis of 0.75 km. The dimensions of the magma chamber have been evaluated by using a thermal model based on the assumptions that a progressively cooling huge magmatic body is responsible for the volcanic activity at Phlegraean Fields in the last 35,000 years. Surface deformations caused by an over-pressure of 30 MPa in the magma chamber have been calculated. Constant, and temperature-dependent elastic parameters of the surrounding medium have been considered. Vertical displacements of the order of those presently observed at Phlegraean Fields can be obtained only with temperature-dependent elastic properties of the medium.     

Geothermal energy release at the Solfatara of Pozzuoli (Phlegraean Fields): Phreatic and phreatomagmatic explosion risk implications

The H₂O, CO₂ and H₂S outputs at the Solfatara of Pozzuoli have been measured and a map of the exhaling areas has also been made. The energy released at the surface by the fluids has been estimated to be 10¹⁹ ergs/day.The presence of aquifers at Phlegraean Fields increases the phreatic and phreatomagmatic explosion risk.Our results suggest that even if an uprising magma may interact with water at depth, an explosion could occur only at the shallow levels of a few hundred meters. Since the transfer of energy toward the surface is favoured by the presence of fractures, a detailed analysis of the deep fracture network would help to evaluate the risk levels of the various areas of Phlegraean Fields.     

Geochemical surveillance of the Solfatara of Pozzuoli (Phlegraean Fields) during 1983

Geochemical surveillance of the Phlegraean Fields area has been intensified since 1983, in response to the increased uplift rate (brady-seismic activity).Fumarolic gases from Solfatara (Pozzuoli) were sampled and analyzed monthly. A Reducing Capacity (RC) monitoring unit was installed at Soffione, the most active fumarole in the Solfatara system.The preliminary analysis of the RC temporal variations suggest they are consistent with the rate of the seismic energy release.The composition of fumarolic gases indicates that the equilibrium temperature and pressure are higher than those of sampling.The observed variations in CH₄ content are explained as an increase of pressure (from 1982 to the end of 1983) of about 70% at an extimated depth of 3–3.5 km.Finally, during 1983, there were no geochemical indications of both rising magma and significant accumulation of energy at shallow depth.     

The gas/steam ratio as indicator of heat transfer at the Solfatara fumaroles,Phlegraean Fields (Italy)

A simple geochemical model of Solfatara, Phlegraean Fields (Italy), is proposed on the basis of gas composition and temperature at the surface.Data on the Solfatara fumaroles have been collected since 1979 within the framework of a geochemical monitoring for the surveillance of the Phlegraean volcanic system.Surface manifestations of Solfatara are likely to be fed through isoenthalpic expansion of dry steam, which separates from a geothermal liquid in an intensively fractured zone at about 236°C. This value is consistent both with gas composition and surface temperature.The gas/steam ratio appears to be the most effective parameter to detect changes of heat flow at depth.Actually a remarkable decrease in the gas/steam ratio has been observed since 1981, while the gas composition and the temperature did not change significantly. These facts suggest increased heat flow at depth.     

Volcanic hazard assessment in the Phlegraean Fields: a contribution based on stratigraphic and historical data

Phenomena occurring since 1982 in the Phlegraean Fields, interpreted as precursors of a potential renewal of volcanic activity, have forced us to anticipate some conclusions of a volcanic-hazard study based on the reconstruction of past eruptions in the area, to serve as basis for civil defense preparedness plans. The eruptive history of the Phlegraean Fields suggests a progressive decrease with time in the strength of eruptive phenomena paralleling a migration of vents towards the center of the Phlegraean caldera. Studies concerning the volcanic risk zonation were therefore concentrated on activities during the last 4,500 years and two eruptions (Monte Nuovo and Agnano Monte Spina), that occurred in 1538 and 4,400 years B.P., respectively were selected as the «reference eruptions» from which possible eruption scenarios were drawn.     

The October 4th, 1983 — Magnitude 4 earthquake in Phlegraean Fields: Macroseismic survey

On Oct. 4th, 1983 the area of Phlegraean Fields, near Naples (Southern Italy) was shaked by an earthquake of magnitude (M _L) 4.0 that caused some damage in the town of Pozzuoli and its surroundings. This seismic event was the largest one recorded during the recent (1982–84) inflation episode occurred in the Phlegraean volcanic area, and a detailed macroseismic reconstruction of the event was carried out.Failing macroseismic data on other earthquakes occurred in Phlegraean Fields, the attenuation law of the intensity as a function of the distance as obtained for the Oct. 4th earthquake was compared with those obtained for other volcanic areas in central Italy —i.e., Tolfa, Monte Amiata — in order to check the reliability of the results obtained for Phlegraean Fields.The Blake's model of the earthquake of Oct. 4th, 1983 does not agree with the experimental data because isoseismals contain areas larger than those shown by the model. This result has been interpreted as an effect of energy focusing due to a reflecting layer 6–8 km deep.     

Simultaneous inversion of velocity structures and hypocentral locations: Application to the Friuli seismic area NE Italy

A layeredP- andS-wave velocity model is obtained for the Friuli seismic area using the arrival time data ofP- andS-waves from local earthquakes. A damped least-squares method is applied in the inversion.The data used are 994P-wave arrival times for 177 events which have epicenters in the region covered by the Friuli seismic network operated by Osservatorio Geofisico sperimentale (OGS) di Trieste, which are jointly inverted for the earthquake hypocenters andP-wave velocity model. TheS-wave velocity model is estimated on the basis of 978S-wave arrival times and the hypocenters obtained from theP-wave arrival time inversion. We also applied an approach thatP- andS-wave arrival time data are jointly used in the inversion (Roecker, 1982). The results show thatS-wave velocity structures obtained from the two methods are quite consistent, butP-wave velocity structures have obvious differences. This is apparent becauseP-waves are more sensitive to the hypocentral location thanS-waves, and the reading errors ofS-wave arrival times, which are much larger than those ofP-waves, bring large location errors in the joint inversion ofP- andS-wave arrival time. The synthetic data tests indicated that when the reading errors ofS-wave arrivals are larger than four times that ofP-wave arrivals, the method proposed in this paper seems more valid thanP- andS-wave data joint inversion. Most of the relocated events occurred in the depth range between 7 and 11 km, just above the biggest jump in velocity. This jump might be related to the detachment line hypothesized byCarulli et al. (1982). From the invertedP- andS-wave velocities, we obtain an average value 1.82 forV _p /V _s in the first 16 km depth.     

Phlegraean Fields 1982–1984: Brief chronicle of a volcano emergency in a densely populated area

The essential features of the ongoing potential pre-eruptive crisis at the Phlegraean Fields begun in August 1982 are summarized and the main problems faced by scientists responsible of volcanic hazards evaluation in such a densely populated area are discussed.     

Thermal history of Phlegraean Fields (Italy) in the last 50,000 years: A schematic numerical model

An attempt is made to reproduce by numerical simulation the last 50,000 years of the Phlegraean Fields volcanic history in terms of a magma chamber with volume progressively reduced by magma extraction to the surface and without refillings from depth. Since the aim is just to verify the plausibility of such an assumption, attention is focused on the major volcanic events, and a rather crude model is adopted. It turns out that the main features of the Phlegraean Fields thermal history, namely the Campanian Ignimbrite, the yellow tuffs emission and the high temperatures measured in the geothermal wells drilled inside the caldera, can reasonably be reproduced under the not-refilled-system assumption. The magmatic body is predicted to have an average temperature of 1000°C at present.     

Interaction between caldera collapse and eruptive dynamics during the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption,Phlegraean Fields,Italy

The Campanian Ignimbrite (36000 years B.P.) was produced by the explosive eruption of at least 80 km³ DRE of trachytic ash and pumice which covered most of the southern Italian peninsula and the eastern Mediterranean region. The eruption has been related to the 12-x15-km-diameter caldera located in the Phlegraean Fields, west of Naples. Proximal deposits on the periphery of the Phlegraean Fields comprise the following pyroclastic sequence from base to top: densely welded ignimbrite and lithic-rich breccias (unit A); sintered ignimbrite, low-grade ignimbrite and lithic-rich breccia (unit B); lithic-rich breccia and spatter agglutinate (unit C); and low-grade ignimbrite (unit D). Stratigraphic and componentry data, as well as distribution of accidental lithic types and the composition of pumice clasts of different units, indicate that coarse, lithic-rich breccias were emplaced at different stages during the eruption. Lower breccias are associated with fines-rich ignimbrites and are interpreted as co-ignimbrite lag breccia deposits. The main breccia unit (C) does not grade into a fines-rich ignimbrite, and therefore is interpreted as formed from a distinct lithic-rich flow. Units A and B exhibit a similar pattern of accidental lithic types, indicating that they were erupted from the same area, probably in the E of the caldera. Units C and D display a distinct pattern of lithics indicating expulsion from vent(s) that cut different areas. We suggest that unit C was ejected from several vents during the main stage of caldera collapse. Field relationships between spatter agglutinate and the breccia support the possibility that these deposits were erupted contemporaneously from vents with different eruptive style. The breccia may have resulted from a combination of magmatic and hydrothermal explosive activity that accompanied extensive fracturing and subsidence of the magma-chamber roof. The spatter rags probably derived from sustained and vigorous pyroclastic fountains. We propose that the association lithic-rich breccia and spatter agglutinate records the occurrence of catastrophic piecemeal collapse.     

Helium in Phlegraean Fields soil gases: July 20th–26th — September 19th–25th, 1983

Two helium surveys were carried out at Phlegraean Fields in July and September 1983 aiming at locating loci of discontinuities (fractures) in the area on the basis of variations in helium concentrations following the bradyseismic crisis then in progress.