The thermoluminescence profile of a recent sea sediment core and the solar variability

The analysis of the thermoluminescence (TL) profile of the GT14 recent sea sedimentary core shows the existence of four main periodicities of 137.7, 59,12.06, and 10.8 years. Here we discuss the affinity of these waves to the known cycles of solar variability. The beats of the two high frequency components produce a modulated wavetrain with a carrier wave of 11.4 years and an amplitude modulation with period 206 years. The minima of this squared amplitude modulation fall in 1810 and 1913 A.D. and closely correspond to the periods of lowest solar activity as indicated by the sunspot series. The sum of the two low frequency waves can in turn be rewritten as a component with period 82.6 years which is amplitude modulated by a second component with period of 206 years. The 82.6-yr wave has the period commonly attributed to the Gleissberg cycle of solar activity. The maxima of the 82.6-yr wave occur in agreement with the dates of maximum solar radius as suggested by Gilliland (1981).     

太阳与地磁活动的1.3–1.7 yr振荡关系分析

太阳和地磁活动中的1.3–1.7 yr周期研究对于理解日地空间耦合系统中可能发生的物理过程十分重要.黑子是太阳光球层上最突出的磁场结构, Ap指数则是表征全球地磁活动水平的重要指标.使用同步压缩小波变换得到太阳黑子数和地磁Ap指数的1.3–1.7yr周期,并用互相关方法分析研究它们之间的相位关系.结果如下:(1)太阳黑子数和地磁Ap指数的1.3–1.7 yr周期呈现间歇性的演化特征,且随着时间的变化而不断变化;(2)地磁Ap指数在奇数活动周比相邻的偶数活动周的周期分量更高,表现出上下波动的变化特性;(3)地磁Ap指数和太阳黑子数的相位关系不是一成不变的,在大多数情况下地磁Ap指数滞后太阳黑子数,仅在第18和第22活动周黑子数在相位上滞后.     

Analysis of the 1.3–1.7 yr Oscillation Relationship between Solar and Geomagnetic Activities

The study on the 1.3–1.7 yr period of the solar and geomagnetic activities is very important for understanding the possible physical processes in the solar-terrestrial coupling system. The sunspot is the most prominent magnetic field structure in the solar photosphere, and the Ap index is an important indicator for the global geomagnetic activity level. The 1.3–1.7 yr period for the sunspot number and the geomagnetic Ap index is obtained by the synchro-squeezing wavelet transform, and the phase relationship between them is studied by the cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The 1.3–1.7 yr period of the geomagnetic Ap index and sunspot number exhibits an intermittent evolutionary characteristics, and changes continuously with the time; (2) the geomagnetic Ap index has a higher periodic component in the odd solar cycles than the neighboring even solar cycles, which is characterized by fluctuations; (3) the phase relationship between the geomagnetic Ap index and the sunspot number is not always invariant, in most cases the geomagnetic Ap index lags behind the sunspot number, except in the 18th and 22th solar cycles.     

Reconstruction of Wolf Sunspot Numbers on the Basis of Spectral Characteristics and Estimates of Associated Radio Flux and Solar Wind Parameters for the Last Millennium

A reconstruction of sunspot numbers for the last 1000 years was obtained using a sum of sine waves derived from spectral analysis of the time series of sunspot number R _z for the period 1700–1999. The time series was decomposed in frequency levels using the wavelet transform, and an iterative regression model (ARIST) was used to identify the amplitude and phase of the main periodicities. The 1000-year reconstructed sunspot number reproduces well the great maximums and minimums in solar activity, identified in cosmonuclides variation records, and, specifically, the epochs of the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimums as well the Medieval and Modern Maximums. The average sunspot number activity in each anomalous period was used in linear equations to obtain estimates of the solar radio flux F _10.7, solar wind velocity, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field.     

Separation of periodic, chaotic, and random components in solar activity

Two new techniques were applied to search for chaotic behavior in solar activity. A mixture of periodic and chaotic components in a time series makes it difficult to find chaotic behavior. The singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method (Broomhead and King, 1986) was used to separate periodic and irregular components in solar activity (e.g., sunspot number and 10.7 cm flux). The nonlinear prediction method (Sugihara and May, 1990) was applied for each component to examine whether it has a chaotic characteristic. The result suggests that are are dominant periodic components and highly irregular (random) components in solar activity.     

A New Method for Prediction of Peak Sunspot Number and Ascent Time of the Solar Cycle

The purpose of the present study is to develop an empirical model based on precursors in the preceding solar cycle that can be used to forecast the peak sunspot number and ascent time of the next solar cycle. Statistical parameters are derived for each solar cycle using “Monthly” and “Monthly smoothed” (SSN) data of international sunspot number (R _i). Primarily the variability in monthly sunspot number during different phases of the solar cycle is considered along with other statistical parameters that are computed using solar cycle characteristics, like ascent time, peak sunspot number and the length of the solar cycle. Using these statistical parameters, two mathematical formulae are developed to compute the quantities [Q _C] _n and [L] _n for each nth solar cycle. It is found that the peak sunspot number and ascent time of the n+1th solar cycle correlates well with the parameters [Q _C] _n and [L] _n /[S _Max] _n+1 and gives a correlation coefficient of 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. Empirical relations are obtained using least square fitting, which relates [S _Max] _n+1 with [Q _C] _n and [T _a] _n+1 with [L] _n /[S _Max] _n+1. These relations predict a peak of 74±10 in monthly smoothed sunspot number and an ascent time of 4.9±0.4 years for Solar Cycle 24, when November 2008 is considered as the start time for this cycle. Three different methods, which are commonly used to define solar cycle characteristics are used and mathematical relations developed for forecasting peak sunspot number and ascent time of the upcoming solar cycle, are examined separately.     

Studies of the correlation between the global radiation,ultraviolet radiation,cosmic radiation,sunspot number and meteorological parameters

The correlation between the ratio of the global irradiation to the extraterrestrial solar radiation (H/H ₀), and the ratio of the ultraviolet solar irradiation to the extraterrestrial solar radiation (H _u /H ₀) on a horizontal surface at Bahrain (=26°), and some terrestrial and solar parameters (the monthly average relative humidity, temperature, relative sunshine duration, cosmic radiation intensity, and sunspot number) have been studied. Moreover, the role of the solar effects and the terrestrial effects on the global and the solar ultraviolet radiation has been studied. A detailed investigation has been carried between the level of the cosmic radiation received at Bahrain and the sunspot number. It was concluded that as the solar activity increases, cosmic radiation and sunspot number play a predominant effect on the correlation of (H/H ₀) and (H _u /H ₀). Furthermore, the correlation between cosmic radiation and sunspot number also increases.     

Sunspot groups at high latitude

Data of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°), from the year 1874 to the present (2000 January), are collected to show their evolutional behaviour and to investigate features of the yearly number of sunspot groups at high latitude. Subsequently, an evolutional pattern of sunspot group number at high latitude is given in this paper. Results obtained show that the number of sunspot groups of a solar cycle at high latitude rises to a maximum value about 1 yr earlier than the time of the maximum of sunspot relative numbers of the solar cycle, and then falls to zero more rapidly. The results also show that, at the moment, solar activity described by the sunspot relative numbers has not yet reached its minimum. In general, sunspot groups at high latitude have not appeared on the solar disc during the last 3 yr of a Wolf solar cycle. The asymmetry of the high latitude sunspot group number of a Wolf solar cycle can reflect the asymmetry of solar activity in the Wolf solar cycle, and it is suggested that one could further use the high latitude sunspot group number during the rising time of a Wolf solar cycle, maximum year included, to judge the asymmetry of solar activity over the whole solar cycle.     

Wavelet Analysis of the Schwabe Cycle Properties in Solar Activity

Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year‘s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990.     

大行星轨道运动与太阳黑子数的中长周期变化

本文对不同序列的太阳黑子数资料作了分析研究,计算得到了可能的太阳黑子活动的中长周期变化,并分别与由大行星轨道运动引起的日心轨道角动量变化的周期进行比较,发现二者具有比较一致的谱结构。基于本文的讨论和文[17]的结论,我们进一步认为大行星轨道运动是太阳黑子数周期性变化的可能的外部因素。     

Solar Magnetic Activity and Total Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum

We develop a model for estimating solar total irradiance since 1600 AD using the sunspot number record as input, since this is the only intrinsic record of solar activity extending back far enough in time. Sunspot number is strongly correlated, albeit nonlinearly with the 10.7-cm radio flux (F _10.7), which forms a continuous record back to 1947. This enables the nonlinear relationship to be estimated with usable accuracy and shows that relationship to be consistent over multiple solar activity cycles. From the sunspot number record we estimate F _10.7 values back to 1600 AD. F _10.7 is linearly correlated with the total amount of magnetic flux in active regions, and we use it as input to a simple cascade model for the other magnetic flux components. The irradiance record is estimated by using these magnetic flux components plus a very rudimentary model for the modulation of energy flow to the photosphere by the subphotospheric magnetic flux reservoir feeding the photospheric magnetic structures. Including a Monte Carlo analysis of the consequences of measurement and fitting errors, the model indicates the mean irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was about 1 ± 0.4 W m⁻² lower than the mean irradiance over the last solar activity cycle.     

A relation between solar activity and the Earth's rotation

In this paper, applying Vondrák band filter to both series of (l.o.d.) and sunspot relative number (R), we obtain variations of amplitude of 11 yr term during 1800–1985. The results show that solar cyclic signal in (l.o.d.) series is weak and unstable. The amplitude of 11 yr term in R series has long-periodic variation. The paper has briefly discussed some results about effects of solar activity on the Earth's rotation through the atmospheric motion. From the variation of (l.o.d.) obtained by band filter, we find that maxima of amplitude of annual term in (l.o.d.) occur at the same time with those of sunspot number. It implies that the angular momentum imbalance between the circulations in Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere is controlled in some way by solar activity.     

Recurrent magnetic activity,sunspot number and its rate of decline

Power spectral densities computed from low-latitude horizontal intensity of the Earth's magnetic field over two-year periods of declining phases of solar cycles 16 to 19 show a close relationship with the maximum relative sunspot number of the following solar cycles. The maximum sunspot number shows an exponential rise with the power density near 1/27 cd^?1; maximum R _z,however, increases linearly with power density near 1/14 cd^?1. It is also shown that the rate of decline of sunspot number in a solar cycle is almost exactly related, linearly, to power spectral density for the preceding solar cycle. Power densities near 1/27 and 1/14 cd^?1 in declining phase of solar cycle appear to be satisfactory indices for the maximum relative sunspot number of the following cycle and its rate of decline thereafter.     

On the stability of the 11-year solar cycle period (and a few others)

The existence of an 11.1-yr periodic variation in the sunspot number record has been recognized for many years; however, periodicities other than this remain questionable. Power spectral analysis of the International sunspot number is performed and the results are compared with those for the same period using values that were taken randomly inside the error bars. The findings are that only a few periodicities show noticeable peaks. These include periodicities of 8.49, 10.01, 10.58, 11.10, 12.50, 58.50, and 97.20 yr. On the basis of these seven periodicities, one can loosely simulate the observable sunspot record (r = 0.75). We find that discrepancies in number and value of periodicities with other authors appear to be related to the length of the sunspot record used in the analysis and to the occurrence of 0.3-yr windows around the inferred periodicities.     

Forecast of the Decadal Average Sunspot Number

The forecast of the decadal average sunspot number (SN) becomes possible with an extension of telescopic observations based on proxy reconstructions using the tree ring radiocarbon data during the Holocene. These decadal numbers (SN_RC) provide a powerful statistic to verify the forecasting methods. Complicated dynamics of long-term solar activity and noise of proxy-based reconstruction make the one-step-ahead forecast challenging for any forecasting method. Here we construct a continuous data set of SN_RC which extends the group sunspot number and the international sunspot number. The known technique of nonlinear forecast, the local linear approximation, is adapted to estimate the coming SN. Both the method and the continuous data set were tested and tuned to obtain the minimum of a normalized average prediction error (E) during the last millennium using several past millennia as a training data set. E=0.58σ _D is achieved to forecast the SN successive differences whose standard deviation is σ _D=7.39 for the period of training. This corresponds to the correlation (r=0.97) between true and forecasted SN. This error is significantly smaller than the prediction error when the surrogate data were used for the training data set, and proves the nonlinearity in the decadal SN. The estimated coming SN is smaller than the previous one.     

Can the Solar Cycle Amplitude Be Predicted Using the Preceding Solar Cycle Length?

In this work, the evolution of the relationship between Solar Cycle Length of solar cycle n (SCL _n ) and Solar Cycle Amplitude of the solar cycle n+1 (SCA _n+1) is studied by using the R _Z and R _G sunspot numbers. We conclude that this relationship is only strongly significant in a statistical sense during the first half of the historical record of R _Z sunspot number whereas it is considerably less significant for the R _G sunspot number. In this sense we assert that these simple lagged relationships should be avoided as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.     

On the proposed associations of solar neutrino flux with solar particles,cosmic rays,and the solar activity cycle

It has been proposed that the observed solar neutrino flux exhibits important correlations with solar particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the sunspot cycle, with the latter correlation being opposite in phase and lagging behind the sunspot cycle by about one year. Re-examination of the data-available interval 1971–1981, employing various tests of statistical significance, however, suggests that such a claim is, at present, unwarrantable. For example, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic-ray flux with the Ap geomagnetic index, neither were found to be statistically significant (at the 95% level of confidence), regardless of the choice of lag (-1, 0, or +1 yr). Presuming linear fits, all correlations with Ap had coefficients of determination (r ², where r is the linear correlation coefficient) less than 16%, meaning that 16% of the variation in the selected test parameters could be explained by the variation in Ap. Similarly, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic ray flux with sunspot number, only the latter association proved to be of statistical importance. Using the best linear fits, the correlation between yearly averages of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 19%, the correlation between weighted moving averages (of order 5) of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 45%, and the correlation between cosmic-ray flux and sunspot number had r ² 76%, all correlations being inverse associations. Solar neutrino flux was found not to correlate strongly with cosmic-ray flux, and the Ap geomagnetic index was found not to correlate strongly with sunspot number.     

Periodicities in solar activity

The techniques of power spectral analysis are used to determine significant periodicities in the annual mean relative sunspot numbers. The main conclusion is that a period of 10.45 yr is very basic and can be associated with an excitation of new solar cycles. When combined with a period of 11.8 yr, associated here with the free-running length of a solar cycle, the mean cycle length of 11.06 yr and a phase variation of 190 yr are explained. Similarly the amplitude variations with periods 88 and 59 yr (previously described as the 80-yr cycle) are due to an amplitude modulation of the solar cycle by a period of 11.9±0.3 yr. The results dispute several associations of planetary position and solar activity.Radiophysics Publication RPP 1647, January, 1973.     

The Observed Long- and Short-Term Phase Relation between the Toroidal and Poloidal Magnetic Fields in Cycle 23

The observed phase relations between the weak background solar magnetic (poloidal) field and strong magnetic field associated with sunspots (toroidal field) measured at different latitudes are presented. For measurements of the solar magnetic field (SMF) the low-resolution images obtained from Wilcox Solar Observatory are used and the sunspot magnetic field was taken from the Solar Feature Catalogues utilizing the SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms. The quasi-3D latitudinal distributions of sunspot areas and magnetic fields obtained for 30 latitudinal bands (15 in the northern hemisphere and 15 in the southern hemisphere) within fixed longitudinal strips are correlated with those of the background SMF. The sunspot areas in all latitudinal zones (averaged with a sliding one-year filter) reveal a strong positive correlation with the absolute SMF in the same zone appearing first with a zero time lag and repeating with a two- to three-year lag through the whole period of observations. The residuals of the sunspot areas averaged over one year and those over four years are also shown to have a well defined periodic structure visible in every two – three years close to one-quarter cycle with the maxima occurring at − 40° and + 40° and drifts during this period either toward the equator or the poles depending on the latitude of sunspot occurrence. This phase relation between poloidal and toroidal field throughout the whole cycle is discussed in association with both the symmetric and asymmetric components of the background SMF and relevant predictions by the solar dynamo models.     

The mid-term and long-term solar quasi-periodic cycles and the possible relationship with planetary motions

This work investigates the solar quasi-periodic cycles with multi-timescales and the possible relationships with planetary motions. The solar cycles are derived from long-term observations of the relative sunspot number and microwave emission at frequency of 2.80 GHz. A series of solar quasi-periodic cycles with multi-timescales are registered. These cycles can be classified into three classes: (1) the strong PLC (PLC is defined as the solar cycle with a period very close to the ones of some planetary motions, named as planetary-like cycle) which is related strongly with planetary motions, including nine periodic modes with relatively short period (P<12 yr), and related to the motions of the inner planets and of Jupiter; (2) the weak PLC, which is related weakly to planetary motions, including two periodic modes with relatively long period (P>12 yr), and possibly related to the motions of outer planets; (3) the non-PLC, for which so far there has been found no clear evidence to show the relationship with any planetary motions. Among the planets, Jupiter plays a key role in most periodic modes due to its sidereal motion or spring tidal motions associated with other planets. Among planetary motions, the spring tidal motion of the inner planets and of Jupiter dominates the formation of most PLCs. The relationships between multi-timescale solar periodic modes and the planetary motions will help us to understand the essential nature and prediction of solar activities.