干旱区水资源对城市化约束强度的综合评价模型

Water has become a key restricting factor of the urbanization process in developing arid areas. Based on qualitative and quantitative methods, we constructed an integrated indicator system to assess the status of water resources and urbanization system in arid area, and established an AHP model reformed by entropy technology to evaluate the temporal and spatial variations of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization. This model is applied to the Hexi Corridor, a typical arid area in NW China. Results show that, water resources constraint intensity on urbanization in the Hexi Corridor is bigger in the east and smaller in the west. It has changed from the less strong constraint type into the strong constraint type from 1985 to 2005, yet it decreased appreciably in recent years. At present, most areas in the Hexi Corridor belong to the less strong or strong constraint type. Through rational adjustment of water resources and urbanization system, the Hexi Corridor can still promote water resources sustainable utilization and accelerate the urbanization process. This study suggests that the integrated assessment model of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization is an effective method to analyze the conflicts between water resources and urbanization system in arid area. Foundation: Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-YW-307-02; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation; K. C. Wong Education Foundation, Hong Kong Author: Bao Chao (1978–), Ph.D, specialized in urbanization and water sustainable utilization.     

干旱区水资源对城市化约束强度的时空变化分析

水资源对城市化的约束力已经成为干旱缺水地区决定城市化发展速度, 进而决定城市化和社会经济发展规模的重要外营力之一, 科学度量并探讨其时空变化, 对水资源可持续利用与城市化正常推进具有重要意义。以定性与定量分析相结合的方法建立了水资源对城市化 约束强度的综合测度指标体系, 采用熵技术支持下的层次分析法构建出水资源对城市化约束强度的综合测度模型, 并对1985-2005 年河西走廊水资源对城市化约束强度的时空变化进行了分析。结果表明, 河西走廊水资源对城市化的约束强度在空间上总体表现为自东向西逐渐减小, 在时间上表现为由较强约束类型变为强约束类型, 总体呈不断增加态势, 但近年来略有缓解。虽然河西走廊水资源开发利用潜力综合指数与城市化系统综合发展指数都较低, 面临缺水和发展的双重矛盾, 但目前河西走廊大部分地区水资源对城市化的约束强度仍属于较强或强约束类型, 仍然能够通过合理调控实现可持续发展。     

河西走廊城市化与生态环境的动态耦合模型及应用

1 Introduction Since the 21stcentury,the urbanization tide has sweptacross the whole China.However,the urbanization in W est China, especially in Hexi Corridor, is severely restricted by eco-environment.There are various kinds of contradictions and intim …     

The dynamic coupling model and its application of urbanization and eco-environment in Hexi Corridor

This paper, taking Hexi Corridor as an example, analyzes the alternating intimidation and the dynamic evolving relation between urbanization and eco-environment in arid area of West China. We argue that the harmonious development system of the urbanization and eco-environment would go through four phases: rudimentary symbiotic phase, harmonious developmental phase, utmost increasing phase and spiral type rising phase. Throughout the four phases, the elements of the system would influence each other, coerce each other, and complete the spiral type rising process from low-grade symbiosis to high-grade harmony together. The study on Hexi Corridor shows that the urbanization level in Hexi Corridor has increased gradually from 1985 to 2003 accompanied with the fluctuations of eco-environment state. The response of eco-environment to urbanization has been evident, but lagged behind the urbanization course. At present, the harmonious development system in Hexi Corridor was in its harmonious developmental phase. However, the coupling degree has increased quickly and approached 90 yet, which is signaling that the system is about to enter the utmost increasing phase, and the ecological crisis will enter the latent period. We have found that the coupling degree can well reflect the interactive coercing and dynamic evolving situation between urbanization and eco-environment in Hexi Corridor. From the temporal change of the coupling degree, it can be concluded that urbanization sometimes needs to pay a certain cost for the damage of the eco-environment in its initial stages, but as the urbanization continues, the state of the eco-environment would be meliorated.     

Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation based on corrected TRMM data around the Hexi Corridor, China

Accurate rainfall distribution is difficult to acquire based on limited meteorological stations, especially in remote areas like high mountains and deserts. The Hexi Corridor and its adjacent regions （including the Qilian Mountains and the Alxa Plateau） are typical districts where there are only 30 available rain gauges. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） data provide a possible solution. After precision analysis of monthly 0.25 degree resolution TRMM 3B43 data from 1998 to 2012, we find that the correlations between TRMM 3B43 estimates and rain gauge precipitation are significant overall and in each station around the Hexi Corridor; however, the biases of annual precipitation differ in different stations and are seriously overestimated in most of the sites. Thus, Inverse Distance Weighting （IDW） interpolation method was used to rectify TRMM data based on the difference between TRMM 3B43 estimates and rain gauge observations. The results show that rectified TRMM data present more details than rain gauges in remote areas where there are few stations, alt- hough they show high coherence of distribution. Precipitation decreases from southeast to northwest on an annual and seasonal scale. There are three rainfall centers （〉500 mm） including Menyuan, Qilian and Toson Lake, and two low rain- fall centers （〈50 mm） including Dunhuang and Ejin Banner. Meanwhile, precipitation in most of the study area presents an increasing trend; especially in northern Qilian Mountains （〉5 mm/a）, Badain Jaran Desert （〉2 mm/a）, Toson Lake （〉20 mm/a） and Qingtu Lake （〉20 ram/a） which shows a significant increasing trend, while precipitation in Hala Lake （〈-2 mm/a） and Tengger Desert （〈-3 mm/a） demonstrates a decreasing trend.     

近60 a河西走廊极端气温的变化特征分析

选取河西走廊具有代表性的11个气象站1953年1月～2013年2月逐月极端最高、最低气温观测资料,运用趋势拟合、小波分析和Mann-Kendall方法,对近60 a来河西走廊年、季极端气温进行了趋势拟合,分析了年和季节的变化规律,并对其时间序列进行了小波及突变分析。结果表明：近60 a来、季极端最高和最低气温都是增高的。极端最低气温的增温幅度明显高于极端最高气温,且秋、冬季极端最高、最低气温增温最强。年极端最高气温演变呈现为二次曲线;年极端最低气温线性递增趋势显著0.337 ℃·（10 a）^-1。年、季极端最高、最低气温空间分布存在差异,夏季最炎热的地区分布在安敦盆地和民勤等与沙漠接壤的地域,偏暖时段更容易出现极端最高气温的极值,冬季最寒冷的地区位于马鬃山区。年极端最高气温存在着5 a左右的主周期性变化,50～60 a超长周期尺度较为明显;夏季极端最高气温的周期变化与年极端最高气温的周期变化有相似之处。年极端最低气温的变化表现为3 a、6～8 a、10～12 a周期和50～60 a超长周期尺度;冬季还存在40 a超长周期尺度。年极端最高气温暖突变出现在1996年,夏季极端最高气温暖突变出现在2006年;年极端最低气温暖突变出现在1993年;冬季极端最低气温暖突变出现在1977年。     

基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型与模拟

中国城镇化正处于快速发展阶段,尽管经济和社会发展主控要素还在发挥重要作用,但水资源在生产、生活和生态方面发挥主控作用的局面愈益明显。在中国城镇化系统动力学（system dynamics,SD）模型基础上,从水资源供给、需求和水环境等层面将水资源作为主控要素嵌入原有模型中,拓展出基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型,并对水资源利用进行了多情景模拟。结果表明：① 系统存流量和灵敏度检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性。② 部门用水效率一定时,产业发展对水资源供需平衡的影响比人口增长更为明显。③ 在实行节水农业、节水工业、高生活需水、高生态环境需水和高再生水利用的综合协调方案中,2050年中国城镇化的发展约共需6789.70亿 m³水资源,基本实现水资源供需平衡。     

河西走廊近50年来地表水资源时间序列的小波分析

小波分析（wavelet Analysis）是时间-频率分析领域近年来迅速发展的一种新技术,具有多时间尺度、多层次和多分辨的特性。应用小波分析原理对甘肃河西走廊近50a来的径流、降水、气温等影响地表水资源时间序列的因素进行了分析,结果表明,水资源具有多尺度振荡的特点,具有2～4a,5～9a,12～15a,以及20a左右的周期变化。径流与降水和气温具有同步的时间序列,但是它们的主要周期尺度不同。小波分析的应用对河西走廊水资源趋势和预测研究提供了一个新的方法和思路。     

河西走廊城镇化进程中的资源环境压力定量测评研究

以甘肃河西走廊为研究对象,定义了由资源能源约束压力和生态环境压力共同构成的资源环境压力指数,并通过构建指标体系测度城市化水平和资源环境压力水平,利用协整检验和Granger因果检验分析二者之间的定量关系。结果显示：（1）2000-2015年河西走廊地区城镇化进程中的资源环境压力指数呈不断上升趋势。其中,2000-2005年上升趋势较为平缓;从2003年开始,资源环境压力指数的上升有所加快,尤其是2007年以后,该指数年均增长率达到4.4%,表现出资源环境压力逐年上升,资源环境恶化的速度在加快。根据估计的回归方程预测,河西走廊地区的资源环境压力指数将于2026年变为压力"很大"。（2）2000-2015年河西走廊地区的资源能源消耗分指数和环境污染分指数变化趋势对比明显,其中资源能源消耗分指数增速较快,年均增长率达到5.9%,2012年计算的压力值已达到77.12,2013年突破80的分界点,进入压力"很大"的状态,而环境污染分指数变化不大,在28~33之间波动,压力状态为"小"。（3）从资源能源消耗分指数和环境污染分指数的数据点分布来看,所有数据点都分布在对角线的上方,说明工业污染并不是造成该地区资源环境压力的最主要原因,河西走廊地区资源环境压力主要来自于资源能源消耗。因此,未来该区域城镇化过程中,应综合考虑区域自然资源、生态环境和城镇化协同发展,走自然资源"低耗高效型",生态环境"低压强保型"之路。     

西北干旱区水资源约束城市化进程的定量辨识——以甘肃省武威、张掖市为例

加快西北干旱区的城市化进程,是实施西部大开发战略和全面建设小康社会的必由之路。而城市化水平的提升,主要取决于驱动力和制动力的大小。通过西北干旱区典型绿洲城市武威和张掖的城市化水平、用水总量、经济总量、产业结构、用水效益、人均用水水平等变化过程的定量分析和比较,发现水资源对城市化进程存在明显的约束作用,水资源约束力是导致城市化进程缓慢的重要因素之一。通过城市化水平与水资源利用关系对数约束模型的推导与分析,发现城市化水平与用水总量之间拟合方程的相关系数,可作为定量识别西北干旱区水资源约束城市化进程的重要指标。根据实际拟合结果,水资源对武威市城市化进程的约束强度为0.937,属于极强约束类型;对张掖市的约束强度为0.438,属于较强约束类型。     

Spatial correlations between urbanization and river water pollution in the heavily polluted area of Taihu Lake Basin, China

Water pollution in the Taihu Lake Basin has been the focus of attention in China and abroad for a long time, due to its position in the forefront of urban development in China. Based on data gathering and processing from 84 monitoring sections in this heavily polluted area, this study first analyzes spatial patterns of urbanization and the distribution of river water pollution, and then uses the GeoDa bivariate spatial autocorrelation model to investigate the spatial correlation between urbanization and river water pollution at the scale of township units. The results show that urbanization has adverse impacts on water pollution, and the influence varies in different levels of development areas. The urban township units have the highest level of urbanization and highest pollution, but the best water quality; the suburban units have lower level of urbanization, but higher pollution and worse water quality; however the rural units have the lowest level of urbanization and lowest pollution, mainly affected by upstream pollution, but worst water quality. Lastly, urban and rural planning committees, while actively promoting the process of development in the region, should gradually resolve the issue of pollution control lagging behind urban life and urban develop- ment, giving priority to construction of centralized sewage treatment facilities and associated pipeline network coverage in the rural areas and suburban areas.     

河西走廊春季透雨日期的变化特征

利用甘肃河西走廊25个测站1971-2007年降水资料,采用EOF、REOF、波谱分析方法,对春季第一场透雨日期的空间特征、时间变化规律进行了诊断分析.结果表明:甘肃河西走廊春季透雨日期在空间场上具有较好的一致性,其第一主分量方差贡献占总体方差的36%.但不同地理条件下透雨日期有所差异,大致可划分为3个区,东南部早,西...     

塔里木河流域绿洲城镇发展与水土资源效益分析(英文)

This paper examines the spatial pattern of land and water resources as well as urbanization and their interactions in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In order to do so, we extract the data associated with efficiency of land and water resources and urbanization for the years of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008. Specifically the paper investigates the extent to which agglomeration of population and economic activities varies geographically and interplays with spatial pattern of resources efficiency through computation of Global Moran’s I index, Getis-Ord Gi* index and a coordinated development model. The method used provides clear evidence that urbanization, land and water resources efficiency have shown uneven spatial pattern due to oasis distribution, climate, and initial phase of urban development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) Agglomeration and dispersion of urbanization are not consistent with those of land and water resources efficiency.(2) Evolution of the hot and cold spots of urbanization, and land and water resources efficiency, in different trajectories, indicate that there are no significant interactions between them.(3) The evidence that numbers of hot and cold spots of the three factors present varying structures reveals the dominance of unequal urban development in the study area.(4) Significant differences are also found between sub-river basins in terms of the three factors, which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area.(5) The degree of coordinated development of cities in the Tarim River Basin is generally low in part as a reflection of difference in spatial patterns of the three factors. It is also shown that the pattern of the degree of coordinated development is relatively stable compared with evolution of hot and cold spots of the three factors.     

干旱绿洲农业区水资源优化利用研究

针对干旱绿洲农业区水资源利用中存在的问题,采用多目标模型方法建立数学模型,并以张掖绿洲为研究背景,结合经济目标、生态环境目标和社会目标,进行水资源优化利用实例研究。结论表明,采用多目标模型方法研究干旱绿洲农业水资源优化利用可以促进该地区经济、环境和社会的协调发展,以经济发展为主,进一步加强环境的保护,提高生态环境效益在整个国民生产总值中的比例,在发展经济的同时,取得较好的生态环境和社会效益。     

水资源可持续利用规划耦合模型与应用

介绍了水资源可持续利用规划耦合模型和应用实例。从数学形式上看,它是多目标优化模型,目标函数选用自由度较高并具竞争性的系统状态指标;约束条件应该包括各相关子系统的状态模拟方程,使模拟与优化实现耦合。在研究实例中,选用了GDP和COD排放量指标来表征研究区的经济发展和环境状况,约束条件主要包括水资源系统模拟模型和宏观经济系统扩大再生产—投入产出耦合模型。由于水资源可持续利用规划决策是半结构化的决策问题,开发决策支持系统辅助决策有助于提高决策的科学性和有效性。     

河南省农田利用集约度时空变化及其影响环境

采用因子分析法、重心分析法及空间自相关分析法,利用SPSS、ArcGIS和GeoDa,探究了河南省县级尺度农田利用集约度及其空间分布、空间变化特征。研究发现:河南省农田利用集约度较高的县级单元多分布于河南省东北部;近邻城市的农田利用集约度亦较高;农田利用集约度相近的县级单元呈空间集聚态势,尤其是以较低农田利用集约度的县级单元更为明显;农田利用集约度重心点位于河南省几何中心点的东北方向,且随着时间推移仍不断向东北方向移动。农田利用集约度是农业生产者在自然条件、经济发展、政治制度、社会人文等环境的约束下,结合劳动力、耕地等自身资源条件,经分析判断后对农田利用效果的评价。探究农田利用集约度空间分布特征及其变化,可了解不同区位条件下的农户生产决策特征及其变化,为农业发展战略的制定提供依据。     

基于城镇化视角的绿洲城市用水变化驱动效应分析

城镇化是驱动区域用水变化的双刃剑,既可以通过刺激生产来促进用水总量增长,也可以通过优化用水结构和提高用水效率来抑制用水总量增长。以黑河流域张掖市为例,通过构建城镇化驱动用水变化的完全分解模型,定量测度了2000-2011年张掖市人口和经济城镇化过程对用水总量和用水效率变化的驱动效应。结果表明：张掖市人口和经济城镇化过程对用水总量均具有明显的减量效应,对用水效率均具有明显的增量效应,而且与人口和经济城镇化速度高度相关。因此建议干旱区绿洲城市在水资源约束下,应将城镇化作为优化人口结构、经济结构和用水结构,提高经济效率以及用水效率,并最终实现水-生态-经济良性循环的抓手。该结论对于科学认识干旱区绿洲城市城镇化与水资源利用的关系具有一定的参考价值。     

干旱区水资源约束下的生态退耕空间优化及权衡分析——以奇台县为例

干旱区耕地大规模扩张导致水资源超载、生态问题频发,亟须退地还水。因此,探索水资源约束下的生态退耕空间优化方案,不仅有助于解决干旱区面临的问题,还可为土地利用规划和决策提供参考。目前对退耕方案多效益矛盾的研究尚量化不足,有鉴于此,本文建立生态退耕空间优化配置及权衡分析模型,以新疆奇台县为研究区进行模型应用,构建了水资源约束下的生态退耕方案群,并设计保有耕地优先和保护生态优先等两种情景,利用蚁群优化算法实现了生态退耕的空间配置模拟与优化。结果表明:耕地面积在保有耕地优先情景将减至9.94万hm2,保护生态优先情景则为6.96万hm2;在此退耕过程中,河道内生态用水占水资源总量的比例从10%增加到30%,防固沙量由713.22万t增加至816.59万t,经济效益则由34.86亿元下降至24.75亿元。通过比较单位经济效益的减少比例可产生的生态效益增加比例,确定耕地面积退至8.35万hm2时是权衡生态和经济效益下的生态退耕最优方案。退耕还草主要发生在奇台县耕地集中区的东北、西北及西南部边缘,将有利于北部的沙漠化防控和南部的水源保护。本研究实现了干旱区水资源约束下生态退耕方案空间模拟和优化,对农...     

1961~2010年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析

利用河西地区15个气象站点1961~2010年月平均风速和最大风速日值资料,采用M-K突变检验、ArcGIS中的IDW插值和小波分析等方法分析河西地区平均风速的时空变化趋势。结果表明：近50 a来,河西地区年平均风速呈明显下降趋势,其递减速率为0.14 m/( s?10 a)(α=0.001);该地区四季平均风速均呈减少趋势且减少趋势相同;平均风速的变化在空间分布上存在差异,具体表现为年平均风速的递减趋势是自西向东逐渐减小,瓜州和玉门是该地区减幅最大的区域,而乌鞘岭却呈现出微增的趋势;风速的长期变化具有一定的突变性,其年平均风速在1985年发生突变;该地区平均风速存在存在多尺度的周期结构特性,其变化周期为6、19和25 a。     

复杂流域水资源变化模拟的自适应系统识别单元模型

针对复杂流域水资源变化模拟这一难点问题,基于单元模型思想,依据水量平衡原理,采用水文系统识别方法,提出了自适应系统识别单元模型(ASIU),并在塔里木河流域进行应用检验。该模型方法集单元模型方法、水量平衡模型方法、水文系统识别方法之优点,能实时“自适应”模拟复杂流域水资源系统变化。通过应用实例分析,可以看出该模型方法具有显著的“自适应”、“适用于复杂流域”的优点,可为复杂流域水量调度和水资源管理提供基础模型和数据,具有重要的理论及应用意义。